CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/12/04

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02739322
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: April 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2019
• Publication Date: December 4, 1951

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SECURITY INFORMATION
4 December 1951
Copy No,
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SECURITY INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Latin Americans may support Byelorussia for Security Council seat
(page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Japan reassesses its China policy (page 3).
3. ECA Chief in the Far East pessimistic over progress in Indochina
(page 4).
EASTERN EUROPE
4. Comment on Soviet Bloc notes protesting US Mutual Security Act
(page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
5. Eden considers European Army situation critical (page 5).
6. French ratification of Schuman Plan uncertain (page 6).
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GENERAL
1, Latin Americans may support Byelorussia for Security Council seat:
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The chairman of the Latin American caucus at
the Paris UN meeting has advised the American
delegation that the United States should "not now"
count on Latin American support of Greece's
v seat on the� Security Council. He added that the
Latin Americans attached particular importance to retention of "the London
understanding on geographic distribution" of Security Council seats and the
"right of each region to select its own candidates." This would lead them to
vote for Byelorussia.
Comment: Support of Byelorussia over Greece
would reflect a definite change o position by a number of the Latin American
nations. Brazil, for example, had informed the US that it would not support
any Soviet state to succeed Yugoslavia.
The attitude of the Latin American delegates at
Paris was described as ranging from "disappointed to furious" over the US
decision not to back a Latin American candidate for the seat on the Inter-
national Court of Justice left vacant by the expired term of a Mexican judge.
The Latin Americans fear that this US move may presage further reductions
in their representation pn international bodies.
FAR EAST
2. Japan reassesses its China policy:
The Japanese Government has apparently
changed its implied intention of reestablishing
diplomatic relations with Nationalist China,
according to the US Political Adviser in Tokyo,
He credits t change to recent British pressure aimed at restraining
Japan froin going too far in establishing relations with the Nationalist
government.
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In view of evident US-UK differences on this
subject, the Political Adviser believes that Japan, in order not to offend
either nation, has now decided that its most prudent course is to avoid any
affirmative actions toward either Taipei or Peiping pending further develop
ments. Consequently, he feels that the Japanese Government will no longer
be responsive to any US pressure to reach a settlement with the Nationalists.
Comment: ,The Japanese have agreed in writing
not to conclude a bilateral treaty with the Peiping regime and have implied
that they would establish diplomatic relations with Nationalist China. Under
heavy internal pressure to expand the present very limited trade with main-
land China, Yoshida may well attempt to play off the US and Britain on an
Issue on which the two nations lack a coordinated policy.
3. ECA Chief in the Far East pessimistic over progress in Indochina:
The Chief of ECA operations for the Far East
emphasizes that the greatest impediment to US
aims in Indochina is the weakness and con-
servatism of the present Vietnamese Governznent.
He believes t let Minh "revolution" will continue despite rnassitre US
military aid and a sizeable US economic program unless a socially-conscious
government with "grass roots" instincts is formed.
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The ECA Chief further believe t that French
officials in Indochina now realize they are fighting a war that cannot be won
without a political solution and that the conservative Vietnamese "mandarins"
they have been supporting as leaders will never attract the masses sufficiently
to achieve such a solution. The US official recommends, therefore, that the
United States now consider this problem jointly with the French to the end of
developing a government with a broad popular base.
Comment: There is no convincing evidence
available that the French authorities in Indochina have undergone such a
change in attitude as described by the ECA Chief, Those Vietnamese poli-
ticians who have shown the clearest social purpose are the ones whose
political life under the French-sponsored Vietnamese Government has been
briefest.
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EASTERN EUROPE
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4. Comment on� Soviet Bloc notes protesting US Mutual Security Act:
The notes protesting the Mutual Security Act --
sent to the United States by the USSR, Rumania, Hungary, Bulgaria and
Poland -- suggest a feeling of genuine alarm at the implications of the Act's
provisions. The notes charge that the Act constitutes proof that the US is
financing exile groups to carry out espionage and sabotage in Eastern Europe.
The alarm aroused in the Orbit is probably due in part to the anti-Communist
resistance and widespread unrest reported in recent months from some of
the Eastern European countries.
The USSR has already utilized the incident of the
missing US military aircraft,� now admitted by the USSR to have been forced
down in Hungary by Soviet fighters, as additional evidence of American
espionage operations. In revealing the whereabouts of the plane, the USSR
alleged that it carried equipment "connected with the planting of spies and
saboteurs" in Eastern Europe.
On the basis of these notes it is possible that
Satellites will take steps to reduce further the effectiveness of existing US
diplomatic establishments in Eastern Europe.
WEST'ERN EUROPE
Eden considers European Army situation critical:
3.3(h)(2)
British Foreign Secretary Eden views the Euro-
pean Army situation as critical and feels that
She whole NATO structure will be endangered if
something is not done about the European De-
fense Forces. Expressing the view that he had perhaps been too negative in
his press conference statements, Eden asked Secretary Acheson if a more
positive UK contribution could be made by suggesting some sort of British
Institutional association with the European Army, or by statements from
Montgomery and Churchill on its military effectiveness. Eden suggested
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that the US and Britain devote some "vigorous" thinking to the European
Defense Forces problem, since a really critical situation might arise by
January.
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Comment: British concern was increased last
week by the report to the NATO Council in Rome on the status of negotiations
for the establishment of a European Defense Community and for contractual
arrangements with the German Federal Republic. This report showed many
points of disagreement requiring settlement before the February Council
meeting.
Prime Minister Pleven has given assurance of
personally pressing the Paris Conferen ce to produce a draft treaty on the
European Defense Community by the end of this month.
6. French ratification of Schuman Plan uncertain:
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Premier Pleven has told the US Ambassador that,
if the Socialists' position can be "straightened
out, " the government will have a majority for
passage of the Schuman Plan when it is debated
on 6 and 7 December.
The Embassy reports, however, that the Socialists
may deman negotiation of a supplementary agreement covering their objections,
a condition which the government could not accept. The Socialists' votes will
be decisive, because it is now clear that the Gaullists will vote against the
Plan rather than abstain, and even the Radicals, a rightist group in the
coalition, are receptive to a current "major campaign" by the steel interests
to discredit the Plan.
Comment: In early October, Pleven expected the
Plan to pass by "a comfortable however, powerful political and
economic groups, whose opposition was evident earlier this year, have made
their influence felt in the Assembly.
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Nevertheless, it is unlikely that the Socialists,
who favor the Plan in principle, would, in a showdown with the government,
accept responsibility for non-ratification.
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