CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/07/19

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02740742
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: April 15, 2019
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2019
• Publication Date: July 19, 1951

Approved for Release: 2019/04/02 CO2740742
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
: DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS
NEXT REVIEW DATE.
R
DATE
REVIEWER
12,00
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY�
GENERAL
Philippine President resentful over US
Zealand (page 3).
FAR EAST
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with Australia and New
2. Large scale replacements improve enemy offensive capabilities in Korea
(page 3). 3.3(h)(2)
SOUTH ASIA
4. Afghan internal situation is serious (page 5
NEAR EAST
5. British official opinion divided over withdrawing AIOC personnel
(nage 5)
WESTERN EUROPE
7. US Commandant considers Limited airlift for Berlin export crisis
(page 7).
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GENERAL
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1. Philippine President resentful over US pact with Australia and New
Zealand:
President Quirino strongly resents the tri-
partite security treaty signed on 12 july by
the US, Australia and New Zealand. He told
US Ambassador Cowen that this treaty gives
Australia and New Zealand a preferred position and implies that the US
does not regard the Philippines as a sovereign nation.
Ambassador Cowen explained that US public
statements on the defense and security of the Philippines actually con-
stitute a closer alliance than the recently signed treaty. However, in
view of Quirino's resentment and the opposition's immediate use of this
issue as another vehicle for criticizing the government, Coien anticipates
that both Quirino and Foreign Affairs Secretary Romulo will Oiess for a
for7n41 defensive alliance.
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Comment: Exclusion of the Philippines from
the US-sponsored pact with Australia and New Zealand is a severe blow
to Philippine pride. It undoubtedly will prove an additional irritant in
US-Philippine relations, already severely strained by Philippine disap-
pointment over the reparations clause of the draft Japanese peace treaty.
FAR EAST
Large scale replacements improve enemy offensive capabilities in Korea:
The Far East Command may be required to
revise its estimate of the enemy's readiness
to resume the offensive. By rebuilding the
units already committed, the enemy has
strengthened his offensive capabilities faster than had been anticipated.
Recent reports on the flow of large numbers of Chinese Communist troops
as individual replacements for forward area units and the identification
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of only one new division indicate that the enemy has rebuilt battered
units rather than introduced fresh ones. Increased capabilities for
offensive action are supported by other indications the increased
volume of enemy artillery fire on several parts of the front in recent
days; air sightings of some enemy armor moving toward the front;
and the eastward displacement of the 12th Army and the relief of the
front line 20th by the rehabilitated 27th Army, suggesting the massing
of forces for a drive in the east.
Comment The present situation suggests
that the enemy has the capability for launching a new offensive without
committing fresh formations, a measure that has characterized the
pre-offensive pattern of several previous operations.
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SOUTH ASIA
4. Afghan internal situation is serious:
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The Afghan internal situation is now more
unstable than it has been for the last 20
years, according to the US Embassy in KabuL
Gestures made by the government early in
1951 to democratize Afghan politics have backfired by producing anti-
government criticism.
Afghan economic grievances have increased
since 1950, when an unusually able Minister of National Economy resigned.
A rift among Moslem leaders, who control much of Afghan public opinion,
has raised a religious storm to add to the confusion in government circles.
Control of Afghan army, police, and intelli-
gence senvices has recently passed into the hands of Defense Minister
Prince Daud, who has temporarily taken over the post of Interior
Minister as well. The Prince, ambitious and hot-headed, is outspokenly
hostile to Pakistan and is also hand in glove with the Afghan Ambassador
to India, who shares his viewpoint.
Comment: Previously, conservative elder
statesmen in the Afghan Royal Family have been able to prevent the
development of any real democratic leadership within the Afghan
populace, and to restrain dangerous activities on the part of such per-
sons as Prince Daud. Given the weakening of the government, there is
a danger that Prince Daud, backed by the Afghan Ambassador to India,
and possibly by the Indian Government, might try to seize control of the
government.
NEAR EAST
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5. British official opinion divided over withdrawing AMC personnel:
No firm decision on continuing the "phased
withdrawal" of British AIOC personnel
from Iran has yet been made, and a
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serious division of opinion in the Foreign Office and in Parliament has
recently developed on the issue.
One high Foreign Office official expressed
the opinion that if the Harriman mission fails Britain will be obliged
"almost immediately" to annotince the intention to continue the with-
drawals, and that in any case some decision will have to be made soon.
However, strong sentiment for holding on at present strength, even in
the face of Iranian opposition, has been expressed by leading Con-
servatives.
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Comment Although a considerable number
of British AIOC personnel have already left Iranl evacuations have been
stopped temporarily, and a force sufficient to carry on present operations
still remains. Foreign Secretary Morrison repeatedly has stated the
British intention to remain as long as possible without jeopardy to British
lives.
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Vipiki bhUli.h
WESTERN EUROPE
7. US Commandant considers limited airlift for Berlin export crisis:
The US Commandant in Berlin, in a letter
to High Commissioner McCloy, suggests
that serious thought must be given to
mounting a limited airlift in cooperation
with the UK and France, possibly within the next two weeks.
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Current Soviet restrictions on West Berlin's
exports to the West have stalled the shipment of .16 million dollars worth
of goods, including defense items. The US Commandant comments that
eeonomic deterioration will come quickly once Western European con-
fidence in Berlin's ability to make delivery of goods is shaken. He
estimates that a lift of approximately 600 tons daily for 30 days would
clear up the present backlog and "might well be the decisive factor in
breaking the serious impasse."
Comment: Despite a temporary relaxation
of Soviet restrictions late in June and an expressed willingness to con-
tinue discussing the Berlin trade situation, the quadripartite talks have
broken off because of the Soviet refusal to drop entirely either the present
restrictions or the principle of controls over West Berlin's vital exports.
The Allied Commandants, in their meeting on 16 July, began considering
means to alleviate the present situation, including an airlift, military
trains and convoys.
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