[SANITIZED]LATIN AMERICA REGIONAL AND POLITICAL ANALYSIS 18 AUGUST 1977 - 1977/08/18

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Argentina Declassification Project - The "Dirty War" (1976-83)
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06627791
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: April 3, 2019
• Document Release Date: April 12, 2019
• Publication Date: August 18, 1977

Approved for Release: 2018/10/02 C06627791
Latin America
REGIONAL AND
POLITICAL ANALYSIS
3.5(c)
Sj.erit
212
RP ALA 77-053
18 August 1977
Approved for Release: 2018/10/02 C06627791
Approved for Release: 2018/10/02 C06627791
SECR ET
LATIN, AMERICA
18 August 1977
CONTENTS
This publication is prepared for regional specialists in the Washington community by
the !Latin America Division, Office of Regional and %laical Analysis, with oc-
casional contributions from other offices within the Directorate of Intelligence and
from other agencies within the Intelligence Community. Comments and queries are
welcome. They should be directed to the authors of the individual articles.
Approved for Release: 2018/10/02 C06627791
Approved for Release: 2018/10/02 C06627791
3.5(c)
__Sfieffrr
3.5(c)
Focus on Human Rights
,This is the first in a series of monthly arti-
.cles that will appear in this publication
dealing with human rights on a regional basis.
!Today's commentary was written by ORPA's
We
hope that .this and subsequent articles will
generate a dialogue among readers of this
,publication. Questions and comments may be
addressed to the author.
,After six months of quiet diplomacy, public state-
ments, and implied warnings of possible reductions in
military and economic assistance, Latin American govern-
ment leaders have become convinced of the sincerity of
the ps commitment to the defense of human rights. More
importantly, they are beginning to respond to the policy
and are, at least, sensitized to the principle that rule
of law and human liberty are values shared universally
by all peoples and individuals regardless of govern-
mental institutions. This does not mean that North
American democratic institutions will immediately become
the norm in all of Latin America. On the contrary, the
military in most countries will remain in power in one
form or another for the foreseeable future. What it
does mean, however, is that most governments now appear
ready and able to curb and possibly even to prevent the
abuse of human rights that has occurred in the past.
The most dramatic new breakthrough occurred last
week in Chile when President Pinochet announced his de-
cision to abolish the National Intelligence Directorate
(DINA). New guidelines suggest that most of DINA's per-
sonnel will be absorbed by a National Information Center
which will be subordinate to the Interior Ministry. In
addition, DINA's arrest and detention powers are being
transferred to the national police (Carabineros) and the
JudiCial Police within the Defense Ministry. While
illegal activity is still possible under this arrange-
ment, it appears that opportunities for repressive
practices will be greatly reduced.
RP ALA 77-053
18 August 1977
1
Approved for Release: 2018/10/02 C06627791
Approved for Release: 2018/10/02 C06627791
- The new agency will not report directly
to the president.
-- Both the Carabineros and the Judicial
Police are highly regarded professional
law enforcement organizations.
-- Government sources report that Pinochet
is now convinced that the Marxist threat
to his regime .has significantly.
Panochet's decision on DINA closely follows his
announcement earlier last week that Chile would begin
a phased transition of power to civilian rule culminat-
ing in1 limited popular elections by 1985. Chile thus
joins the governments of Ecuador, Bolivia, Peru, and
Uruguay that have announced their intention to hold
elections in the next several years.
Argentina reportedly has plans to direct its police
to protect the rights of nonviolent political opposition.
There also has been a reported change in thEy way in which
the seturity services select subversive targets. In
order to detain a .suspect, it will now be necessary to
have sufficient proof that the suspect is, in fact, a
subversive. The government is ordering the release of
certain persons under arrest, and lists are being pub-
lished in the press. Some persons who had previously
"disappeared" have been plated at the disposition of
the executive authority for trial and, depending on
their 'charges, will be tried in either civilian or mili-
tary courts. Finally, the National Intelligence Center
will be abolished at the end of the year and its per-
sonnel will be reintegrated into their original organi-
zations. Operations against subversive organizations,
2
.!.t,C.FtEt
RP ALA 77-053
18 August 1977
NR
Approved for Release: 2018/10/02 C06627791
Approved for Release: 2018/10/02 C06627791
which have been the responsibility of the Center, will
be taken over by the armed forces, principally the army.
Despite these changes, however, the government has in-
creaSingly resorted to violence and abuse of human
rights for internal political purposes not directly con-
nected to the campaign against terrorism.
Reasons for Change
There are a variety of reasons for Latin America's
changing view, of the US human rights policy. In partic-
ular, there is a growing belief in the region that
Washington's defense of human rights has become the
major focus of US foreign policy. In that context, many
Latin Americans believe that it is useless to.try to
change the global strategy of a super power, which in
the past has paid little attention to their arguments
or existence.
The Chileans, for example, have been debating
whether the risks of internal subversion are so great
that they have to risk jeopardizing their traditional
good relations with the US, especially when there is no
alternative benefactor. Thus, defending internal secu-
rity raises the question .of external security--particu-
larly regarding the possibility of war with Peru. A
3
syrdr
RP ALA 77-053
18 August 1977
NR
Approved for Release: 2018/10/02 C06627791
11,
Approved for Release: 2018/10/02 C06627791
sEytfr
June editorial in the Chilean newspaper El Mercurio
summed it up best: "One does not have to stand fast
nor ask for understanding from a wave breaking over
him; One must duck and let it pass over. So it is in
small countries' relations with large ones."
Another factor in the changing outlook is that the
internal security threat in the countries under military
rule has diminished. Chilean President Pinochet and
Argentine President Videla, for example, both appear to
be confident that subversives, while they can cause iso-
lated incidents, can no longer challenge the authority
of the government or the process of forming new institu-
tions. The Uruguayans and Paraguayans appear somewhat
less confident in this regard. Brazil, Bolivia, Ecuador,
and Peru have shown that they can handle potential dis-
ruptions. The El Salvadoreans have not yet been seri-
ously challenged.
' The argument would seem to follow that if draconian
measures are no longer needed to maintain the security
of the state, the country can move toward a full rule
of law and normal political activity. Ecuador's an-
nounced return to civilian rule in 1978 and the subse-
quent announcements by Peru and Bolivia that they also
would hold elections in coming years seems to have had
a positive effect on Chile and Uruguay in that neither
country wants to be isolated from A prevailing political
trend. Moreover, none of the military governments wants
to admit that a return to the rule of law would weaken
its ability to maintain internal security.
In addition to theSelidsitive factors for change
on the human rights issue, there are several bilateral
and multilateral problems among the South American na-
tions that have continued to work against closer rela-
tions in general and anti-US attitudes in particular.
The threat of war in the Andes, resulting primarily
from Lima's acquisition of large quantities of sophis-
ticated Soviet arms, still inhibits full cooperative
relationships among Ecuador, Bolivia, Chile, and Peru.
There is also the continuing problem of Bolivian access
to the sea. Chilean-Argentine relations, in general,
RP ALA 77-053
la August '1977
4
Approved for Release: 2018/10/02 C06627791
Approved for Release: 2018/10/02 C06627791
!FS.51.15(
have lipen good, but now there is some irritation because
of the territorial dispute over the Beagle Channel.
Argentine-Brazilian relations had been improving, but
contrdversy over problems associated with the Itaipu
Dam on the Parana River are causing difficulty. Brazil,
in any case, has true international aspirations and
does not want to get bogged down in any regional
squabbles.
Outlook: Change, but No Change
Most Latin American governments are demonstrating
that they are ready to accept the new US policy on
human rights at least in theory, even though there may
be some backsliding in some countries if security or
other problems arise. The issue of democratic govern-
nt., however, is another story. Most of the countries
under military domination have come through some rough,
unpleasant times combatting insurgency, disorder, and
the "old politics." The military probably is not ready
or willing to allow this situation to recur.
In any case, Latin_Ampricaps have not had much
experience with national repre's'entative government.
Democracy in the area, in fact, has always been more
accurately described as elite government with lip serv�
ice being paid to the terms "popular suffrage" and
"parliamentary government." The urge to play at being
"democratic" and creating institutions that suggest
self-yovernmeht has forever been present The bottom-
line in Latin America, however', has always been pros-
perity and economic security over democratic' institutions.
Right now, and for the foreseeable future, the
military seems to be the only traditional institution
with the discipline:, power, and ability to provide a
framework for economic and political stability in Latin
America. The type of government that develops during
the next decade,--the time frame for the projected return
to "democracy" in most countries--will have some simi-
larities to North American democratic institutions, but
will have some significant differences, The most im-
portant variance probably will be, that significant
5
ET
RP ALA 77-053
18 August 1977
Approved for Release: 2018/10/02 C06627791
Approved for Release: 2018/10/02 C06627791
NR
policies and decisions will be made by the military
either as direct participants in government or as back-
ground directors.
3.5(c) a
RP ALA 77-053
18 August 1977
6
1
Approved for Release: 2018/10/02 C06627791