NATIONAL INTELIGENCE DAILY FRIDAY 18 JUNE 1982 - 1982/06/18

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Argentina Declassification Project - The "Dirty War" (1976-83)
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06628425
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 24
• Document Creation Date: April 3, 2019
• Document Release Date: April 12, 2019
• Publication Date: June 18, 1982

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National Intelligence Daily
Friday
18 June 1982
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...44r77171777
ARGENTINA: Leadership Resnuffle
(Information as of 0030 EDT)
Galtieri's resignation yesterday as Commander in
Chief and President came after senior officers in the
Army withdrew their support for him over the Falklands
defeat and over his apparent refusal to agree to a
formal end to the conflict. The decision was conveyeu
to Galtieri by Army Chief of Staff Vaquero, who report-
edly declined an offer by the Army's high command to
become the new Commander in Chief. The post was subse-
quently given to the Army's number-three man, Major
General Nicolaides, a staunch anti-Communist and oppo-
nent of democratization. 3.5(c)
Interior Minister Saint Jean has taken over as
Interim President in accordance with established proce-
dure. The official Argentine news agency said the new
executive would be named shortly after Nicolaides takes
command of the Army and meets with Nay, Commander Anaya
and Air Force chief Lami DozoLII 3.5(c)
Lami Doze is considered by many in Buenos Aires as
the leading contender to succeed Galtieri because of his
reputation as a mcderate and the Air Force's distinguished
record in the Falklands conflict. There is some specula-
tion, however, that the position will be rotated among
the service chiefs, and some pressure exists to name a
civilian to the post.
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Among its first decisions, the new regime is said
to have agreed to British terms for the repatriation of
the first batch of prisoners captured at Stanle and
the transfer reportedly will begin today. 3.5(c)
Comment: In addition to his insistence that the
war must continue, Galtieri was ousted because of the
coverUp on the course of the fighting that deceived much
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of the military and public, and his call for the demon-
stration on Tuesday that turned violent. The military
commanders probably hope that by removing Galtieri now
they will contain the growing public and military belief
that Argentina's defeat in the Falklands was not honor-
able and thus be in a better position to manage demands
for institutional and political reforms.
The military's move against Galtieri also was aimca
at preventing wider criticism of the armed forces as an
institution. If Lami Bozo becomes president, the greatly
enhanced reputation he and his service gained during the
fighting may help insulate the military from the need for
further housecleaning.
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As president, Lami Dozo--who has a wide array of
civilian contacts--would be likely to move rapidly toward
giving civilians a major role in the government. He prob-
ably would have to find a way to contain the resentment
of some Army officers over the accession to power of the
Chief of the Air Force and of those opposed to liberaliza-
tion. Moreover, he or another successor would still have
to oversee the surrender and repatriation of Argentine
troops and then deal with the thorny question of what to
do next on the Falklands issue. 3.5(c)
London will be pleased if reports that Galtieri's
successors favor a general cease-fire prove accurate.
They almost certainly will operate on the assumption
that the change in government presents an opportunity
for a cease-fire and early repatriation of all prisoners
of war and will quickly approach the new leadership to
see if these can be arranged. The Thatcher government
will worry, however, that confusion in Buenos Aires
could still delay an end to hostilities, leaving it
with no choice but to hold some Argentines and maintain
a costly military presence in the South Atlantic.
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