[SANITIZED]LATIN AMERICA REGIONAL AND POLITICAL ANALYSIS 21 JULY 1977 - 1977/07/21

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Argentina Declassification Project - The "Dirty War" (1976-83)
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03000033
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 35
• Document Creation Date: April 3, 2019
• Document Release Date: April 12, 2019
• Publication Date: July 21, 1977

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Latin America
REGIONAL AND
POLITICAL ANALYSIS
3.5(c)
129
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21 July 1977
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LATIN AMERICA
21 July 1977
CONTENTS
3.5(c)
Argentina: Modification of junta Structure
16
This publication is prepared for regional specialists in the Washington community by
the Latin America Division, Office of Regional and Political Analysis, with oc-
casional contributions from other offices within the Directorate of Intelligence and
from other agencies within the Intelligence Community. Comments and queries are
welcome. They should be directed to the authors of the individual articles.
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Argentina: Modification of Junta Structure
The army high command reportedly is again debating
modification of the formal power structure that has ex-
/ isted since the military ousted President Peron last year.
The discussion probably is in large part a reflection of
President Videla's cautious leadership style and his
apparent willingness to allow discussion of this issue,
which leaves the path clear for such "debates." Hard-
line military elements responsible for reviving the de-
bate are no doubt trying to weaken Videla's effort to
consolidate his position within the military regime. The
hardliners are also trying to shore up their own posi-
tions in the government.
At a meeting in late June, top-ranking generals re-
newed discussion of the so-called fourth-man theme, which
would involve Videla either giving up his position as
president or army commander and another individual being
named to the vacancy. These officers had earlier agreed
that they would not air the subject until late this year.
The officers are reportedly divided over the issue--
another example of the hardline-moderate confrontation
in the army.
Proponents of the fourth-man theme argue that the
current administration is indecisive on political issues,
and claim that Videla is better suited for the singular,
moderating role of president. On the other hand, the
high-ranking moderate officers favor retaining the status
quo, but seek to achieve cohesiveness in the army by per-
suading Videla to take action against hardline opponents.
High-ranking officers who do not agree with Videla's
policies, particularly the President's recent call for
a national dialogue with civilian political groups, will
reportedly be expected to resign or be retired. For
this reason, the date for army promotion and retirement
panels has been moved up to October. Embassy sources
report that there will be more discussions of plans for
the national dialogue at the next meeting of all generals
scheduled in August.
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The idea of a fourth man was vigorously debated
earlier this year on the grounds that the current system
was workable during the initial period of the junta's
takeover and its subsequent consolidation of power, but
that it does not give the executive the clear authority
to direct longer term polidies and plans. Videla refuted
the notion that he would give up either of his positions
last March, when he stated that the present executive
structure would continue through March 1979.
Videla again disavowed consideration of the "fourth
man" theme at a press conference last month in Montevideo
when he said he saw no need to change the power structure.
He hedged his statement somewhat, however, adding that
the idea could not be ruled out if circumstances changed.
The Videla forces appear to be winning the struggle
for power between the moderates and hardliners in the
army. The President probably would not willingly relin-
quish his job as army commander before 1979, when by
statute he must give up that position. Videla no doubt
will continue, however, to compromise on programs in or-
der to win complete acceptance by the military. There
also is always the possibility that serious economic or
political problems--as has happened before--could inter-
rupt events and require a hurried change in the status
quo.
The latest revival of the fourth-man theme stems
from the high degree of politicization in the mili-
tary where disputes and rivalries abound and personal
ambitions frequently supercede policy differences. Un-
less there is more structured and logical pressure from
the army concerning a fourth-man, Videla probably will
be allowed to continue wearing both hats. The thesis is
likely to become a more significant issue in the next
year and a half, however, in anticipation of Videla's
retirement as army chief.
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