[SANITIZED]NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN OCTOBER 9, 1975 - 1975/10/09

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Argentina Declassification Project - The "Dirty War" (1976-83)
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06628179
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: April 3, 2019
• Document Release Date: April 12, 2019
• Publication Date: October 9, 1975

Approved for Release: 2018/10/02 C06628179
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National Intelligence
Bulletin
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ober 9, 1975
Copy No 667
Approved for Release: 2018/10/02 C06628179
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 9, 1975
CONTEt:TS
ARGENTINA: Political lull to
end with Peron's return
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 9, 1975
ARGENTINA
The relative political lull during President Maria Estela Peron's absence from
the capital is giving way to growing controversy centering on her prospective return,
scheduled for next week. While Peron herself has lost effective power and is unlikely
to gain it back, the question of who will assume it is far from resolved.
Presidential spokesmen have said that Peron is well and plans to return to
Buenos Aires on October 17 to address a mass rally marking Juan Peron's rise to
power. A move may be under way, however, to persuade her to remain out of the
picture, or at most accept a passive role. Some observers fear the possibility of
violence if dissident Peronists�including the terrorist Montoneros�seek to disrupt
the rally.
The eventual disposition of effective power will, of course, affect most directly
the current governing team, led by Acting President Luder, Interior Minister
Robledo, and Economy Minister Cafiero. They have managed to restore a measure
of confidence in the government All three realize that unless there is a satisfactory
solution to the political problem of Peron's status, their ability to continue
functioning will diminish steadily.
In addition, all three are potential Contenders in the presidential election
scheduled for 1977. For this reason, each has his own preferred solution to the
problem. Luder, who is chief among those who favor Peron's continued absence,
hopes to continue exercising presidential authority and build a case for his eventual
election to a full term. Robledo, on the other hand, is said to favor restoring Peron
to the presidency, at least as a figurehead, which would remove Luder from the
scene. Cafiero, who has deftly avoided being identified with either side, would
nonetheless benefit from Luder's departure; he would have one less person to
contend with.
The military, whose unity and behind-the-scenes influence on politics have
increased greatly in recent months, are eyeing the situation with concern. The high
command is anxious to prolong the relative effectiveness of the Luder
team�particularly its efforts to centralize the anti-terrorist struggle�and is dismayed
by the resurging debate over Peron's role. Most officers probably favor her
continued absence but would accept her return in a ceremonial role. They still favor
a constitutional solution but are more likely than before to intervene openly, should
political struggles once again paralyze the government.
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 9, 1975
Top labor leaders also have a role to play. Peronist union boss Lorenzo Miguel
is chief among those favoring Peron's retention of the presidency. He has been
challenged, however, by another leading unionist, Buenos Aires Province Governor
Calabro, who has presidential ambitions. Calabro's open call for Peron's ouster has
contributed to a major split within labor.
There is considerable sentiment among the main political parties either for the
President's indefinite absence or for her definitive departure. Indeed, her own party
made an early expression of antagonism to her some months ago by choosing Luder
as Senate president, which placed him next in line of succession. The chief
opposition party, the Radical Civic Union, has proposed advancing the date of the
presidential election by some six months. The Radicals clearly hope to capitalize on
popular disgust with the Peron administration and fear that unless elections are held
soon, the chances of a military coup will increase.
Much will depend on Peron herself. She appears determined, at least for the
moment, to retain some role. Both Robledo and Luder visited the President this
week, the former probably urging her to accept a ceremonial role and the latter
recommending a longer rest. If she feels compelled to assert herself to comply with a
sense of duty, her attitude may go a long way toward provoking the military to
intervene.
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