POLITICAL EVOLUTION: PROGRESS TOWARDS NORMALIZATION - 1979/05/17

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Argentina Declassification Project - The "Dirty War" (1976-83)
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05309014
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: April 3, 2019
• Document Release Date: April 12, 2019
• Publication Date: May 17, 1979

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BUENOS 03955 01 OF 03 190519Z
R 171300Z MAY 79
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 0707
SECRETNOFORN SECTION 1 OF 3 BUENOS AIRES 3955
E.O. 12065 RDS-4 5-16-99 (CHAPLIN, MAXWELL) OR-M
TAGS OGEN PGOV, AR
SUBJECT (C) POLITICAL EVOLUTION: PROGRESS TOWARDS NORMALIZATION
REF: STATE 67497
(C) INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY: PLAGUED BY THE "SCHEME OF
POWER" ISSUED UNTIL MID-1978, THE BEAGLE CHANNEL DISPUTE
IN THE LATTER PART OF THE LAST YEAR, RISING OPPOSITION
FROM POLITICAL, BUSINESS, AND LABOR QUARTERS TO ECONOMY
MINISTER MARTINEZ DE HOZ'S ECONOMIC POLICIES (CULMINATING
IN A GENERAL STRIKE ATTEMPT APRIL 27), AND INTERNAL
DIVISIONS IN THE ARMY, THE GOVERNMENT'S PLANS FOR MOVING
THE COUNTRY TOWARDS DEMOCRATIC RULE HAVE BEEN PROGRESS-
ING AT A SNAIL'S PACE. THE ARMED FORCES, HOWEVER, HAVE
BEEN DRAFTING A SET OF BASIC PRINCIPLES WHICH MAY BE
APPROVED BY THE JUNTA IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. THIS DOCU-
MENT WILL THEN PERMIT PRESIDENT VIDELA TO PROCEED WITH
THE FORMULATION OF A POLITICAL PROPOSAL AND TIMETABLE.
THE CURRENT ATTENTION OF THE GOVERNMENT, HOWEVER, IS
FIXED ON THE IMMEDIATE QUESTION OF NAMING POLITICAL
AMBASSADORS WHO MIGHT GIVE THE REGIME SOME CIVILIAN
WINDOWDRESSING AND PERHAPS EVEN SMOOTH THE WAY TOWARD
DEVELOPING A NEW POLITICAL PARTY SYSTEM FOR THE FUTURE.
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SURVIVING POLITICIANS FROM THE PRE-1976 COUP ERA HAVE
BEEN ACTIVELY SCHEDULING POLITICAL MEETINGS (THINLY
DISGUISED AS SOCIAL GATHERINGS) AND ISSSUING PROCLAMA-
TIONS. THESE ACTIVITIES DO NOT HAVE SIGNIFICANT
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INFLUENCE ON THE GOVERNMENT'S DECISION-MAKING IN TERMS
OF ACCELERATING THE MILITARY'S DELIBERATIONS CONCERNING
NORMALIZATION, BUT ARE GRUDGINGLY TOLERATED. ONE
PROBLEM IS THAT SOME MILITARY OFFICERS ARE BECOMING
COMFORTABLE WITH HOLDING THE SPOILS OF POWER, THROW-
ING OBSTACLES IN THE WAY OF A POLITICAL DIALOGUE AND
PARTY REORGANIZATION EFFORTS AND THEN ARGUING THE SELF-
FULFILLING PROPHECY THAT THERE ARE NO VIABLE CIVILIAN
POLITICIANS TO WHOM THE COUNTRY CAN BE SAFELY ENTRUSTED.
THE GOVERNMENT MAY HAVE WON A SIGNIFICANT VICTORY WITH
THE FAILURE (IN NUMERICAL TERMS) OF ORGANIZED LABOR'S
RECENT GENERAL STRIKE ATTEMPT, BUT THE REGIME CONTINUES
TO MOVE CAUTIOUSLY WITH RESPECT TO IMPLEMENTING THE
LABOR REFORMS IT DESIRES. THE KEY POLITICAL ISSUE FOR
THIS YEAR YET TO BE RESOLVED IS WHO WILL SUCCEED
GENERAL VIOLA AS COMMANDER OF THE ARMY AT THE END OF
THE YEAR--IF HE RETIRES, AS HE SAYS HE WILL--AND THE
OTHER QUESTION BEYOND THAT IS WHO WILL SUCCEED VIDELA
AS PRESIDENT IN 1981. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW LONG IT
WILL TAKE FOR THE MILITARY TO AGREE ON POLITICAL RULES
FOR THE FUTURE WHICH WILL ENABLE IT TO TURN OVER
GOVERNMENT TO AN ELECTED CIVILIAN AUTHORITY AND USHER
IN A NEW ERA, BUT IT IS UNLIKELY, AS SOME POLITICIANS
HAD HOPED, THAT THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE PLACE AS EARLY
AS 1981. END INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY.
1. (C) RATHER THAN PIECING TOGETHER A DETAILED
POLITICAL PLAN ON THE BASIS OF THE THESE DRAFTED
SEPARATELY BY THE ARMY, NAVY AND AIR FORCE, AS ORIGINALLY
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PROPOSED, THE THREE SERVICES INSTEAD HAVE BEEN WORKING
FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS AT THE SECRETARIAT LEVEL ON A
DRAFT SET OF BASIC PRINCIPLES WHICH, WHEN APPROVED BY
THE JUNTA, WILL BE PROMULGATED AS AN INSTITUTIONAL ACT.
THE ACT, REFLECTING THUS THE BASIC PRINCIPLES, DOCTRINE
AND POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY OF THE JUNTA, WILL THEN BE
REMANDED TO PRESIDENT VIDELA TO USE AS A BROAD FRAME OF
REFERENCE FOR DRAFTING A DETAILED GOVERNMENT PROPOSAL
(AND TIMETABLE) FOR MOVING THE COUNTRY DOWN THE ROAD
TO DEMOCRATIC CONSTITUIONAL RULE. VIDELA REPORTEDLY
DOES NOT EXPECT THE ACT TO BE APPROVED BY THE JUNTA
BEFORE THE AUGUST-SEPTEMBER TIMEFRAME, AND THERE COULD
BE FURTHER SLIPPAGE. AMONG THE PRINCIPLES EXPECTED TO
BE INCORPORATED IN THE ACT, FOR EXAMPLE, ARE A
STIPULATION THAT THE ORGANIC PARTICIPATION OF THE ARMED
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FORCES IN THE POLITICAL PROCESS WILL BE GUARANTEED
UNDER THE NEW GOVERNMENT SYSTEM TO BE ESTABLISHED.
WHILE PRIVATE CITIZENS (INCLUDING POLITICAL FIGURES)
ALREADY MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED THROUGH INFORMAL CONSULTA-
TIONS TO THE FORMULATION OF IDEAS IN THE THREE ARMED
SERVICES, THE BASIC PRINCIPLES APPEARING THE JUNTA'S
INSTITUTIONAL ACT APPARENTLY WILL NOT BE NEGOTIABLE OR
SUBJECT TO POSTERIOR QUESTION OR REVISION BY VIDELA,
POLITICAL LEADERS OR THE PUBLIC-AT-LARGE. HOWDVER,
VIDELA WILL BE ALLOWED CONSIDERABLE LEEWAY IN DRAFTING
HIS POLITICAL PROPOSAL, AS THE TERMS OF REFERENCE IN-
CORPORATED IN THE ACT WILL BE BROADLY STATED. IT IS
THOUGHT IN POLITICAL CIRCLES THAT THE FINAL DETAILED
PLAN DRAWN UP BY THE PRESIDENT WILL BE SUBMITTED EVENTUALLY
(PRESUMABLY AFTER BEING SUBMITTED TO AND APPROVED BY
THE JUNTA) TO POPULAR REFERENDUM OR, INSOFAR AS CON-
STITUIONAL AMENDMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED, POSSIBLY TO A
CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY FOR APPROVAL. HOW LONG THE ENTIRE
PROCESS WILL TAKE REMAINS AN UNANSWERED QUESTION (SEE
PARA 10). THE OFFICIAL WATCHWORD IS STILL: THE ARMED
FORCES HAVE OBJECTIVES TO FULFILL AND NOT TIMETABLES,
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IE THE GOVERNMENT WILL BE ENTRUSTED TO ELECTED
CIVILIAN AUTHORITY WHEN THE ARMED FORCES ARE GOOD AND
READY.
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BUENOS 03955 02 OF 03 190530Z
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FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 0708
SECRETNOFORN SECTION 2 OF 3 BUENOS AIRES 3955
2. (C) WHILE THE AMOUNT OF TIME VIDELA HAS TO DRAW
UP HIS PROPOSALHAS NOT BEEN CLARIFIED, PRESUMABLY
HE INTENDS TO HAVE IT READY BEFORE HE STEPS DOWN FROM
OFFICE IN 1981. VARIOUS IDEAS HAVE BEEN UNDER DISCUSSION
IN THE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENCY
FOR OVER A YEAR OR MORE, BUT WE DOE NOT SPECIFICALLY
KNOW IN WHAT STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT THIS PLANNING PROCESS
IS AT THE MOMENT. WE DOUBT THAT THE PRESIDENT'S OFFICIAL
POLITICAL ADVISOR, AMBASSADOR MOYANO, HAS PROGRESSED
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THIS AREA AND INDEED HE MAY NOT EVEN BE
CHARGED WITH THIS RESPONSIBILITY; IT MAY BE THAT THE
REAL PLANNING IS GOING ON WITHIN OTHER OFFICES OF THE
PRESIDENCY.
3. (C) THE CURRENT ATTENTION IN THE OFFICE OF THE
PRESIDENCY SEEMS TO BE FIXED ON THE IMMEDAITE QUESTION
OF FINDING AND DESIGNATING POLITICAL AMBASSADORS WHO
SUMBOLICLY CAN REPRESENT VIDELA'S INTENTION TO DRAFT
A POLITICAL PITURE. REPORTEDLY, THOSE BEING CONSIDERED FOR
AMBASSADORIAL POSITIONS INCLUDE: RAFAEL MARTINEZ
RAYMONDA, THE LEADER OF THE MENDOZA PROGRESSIVE DEMO-
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CRATS (TO ITALY), WALTER V. COSTANZA, A DEMOCRATIC
SOCIALIST (POSSIBLY TO PORTUGAL), AND JUAN AGIRRE LANARI,
A CONSERVATIVE (POSSIBLY TO VENEZUELA). VIDELA,
HOWEVER, HAS BEEN ENCOUNTERING DIFFICULTIES IN GETTING
CIVILIANS TO ACCEPT AMBASSADORIAL APPOINTMENTS, SOME
PRESUMABLY BECAUSE OF RELUCTANCE TO BE IDENTIFIED WITH
THE NATIONAL REORGANIZATION PROCESS, AND THE GOING IS
SLOW.
4. (C) IT IS RELEVANT TO TAKE NOTE HERE OF THE DE FACTO
RESURGENCE DURING THE PAST YEAR OF ACTIVITY, ALBEIT OF
LIMITED EFFECTIVENESS, BY THE LEADERS OF THE POLITICAL
PARTIES EXISTING PRIOR TO THE 1976 COUP-- NOTWITHSTANDING
THE EXISTENCE OF A DECREE BANNING THE PARTIES FROM
FUNCTIONING, WHICH IS STILL ON THE BOOKS. A WEEK DOES
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NOT GO BY WITHOUT THERE BEING AT LAEAST ONE DINNER
ATTENDED BY, OR,PRONOUNCEMENT EMANATING FROM, THE UCRP
(PEOPLE'S RADICAL PARTY), THE VARIOUS PERNIST FACTIONS,
THE POPULAR CONSERVATIVE PARTY, ETC (EVEN THE ORTHODOX
COMMUNISTY PARTY IE PCA). AN ATTEMPT IS ALSO UNDERWAY
BY THE LEADERS OF PROVINCIAL CONSERVATIVE PARTIES TO
STRENGTHEN THEIR NATIONAL ALLIANCE, KNOWN AS "FUFEPO"
(POPULAR FEDERALIST FORCE), AND TO FORGE IT INTO A PROTO-
TYPE GOVERNMENT PART CAPABLE OF INHERITING THE NATIONAL
REORGANIZATION PROCESS WHE THE MILITARY ARE READY TO
TURN OVER THE REINS OF GOVERNOENT. RETIRED ADMIRAL
MASSERA--WHO RECENTLY WAS ENDORSED BY THE "UDELPA"
PARTY FOUNDED BY FORMER PRESIDENT (AND MILITARY STRONG-
MAN) ARAMBURU--IS ALSO PREPARING TO LAUNCH HIS OWN
POLITICAL PARTY, TO BE CALLED "MOVIMIENTO DE ACCION
SOCIAL ARGENTINA" (MASA). ALL THESE ACTIVITIES BY
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CIVILIAN GROUPS WILL BE THE SUBJECT OF A
SEPTEL, BUT THE RELEVANT POINT HERE IS THAT THE
TRADITIONAL POLITICAL PARTIES ARE STILL ESSENTIALLY
SPINNING THEIR WHEELS WITHOUT ANY CLEAR SIGN FROM THE
GOVERNMENT AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE A PLACE FOR THEM
IN THE GOVERNMENT'S FUTURE POLITICAL PLAN. TO THE
CONTRARY, FROM TIME TO TIME ORDERS ARE ISSUED TO THE
SECURITY FORCES TO BREAK UP POLITICAL MEETINGS AND TURN
OVER THE OFFENDERS TO THE JUDICIAL PROCESS. (SO FAR
NO PARTY LEADERS HAVE BEEN INDICTED FOR HAVING INFRINGED
THE BAN AGAINST POLITICAL ACTIVITIES.) BUT THERE ARE
NO CLEAR CUT RULES, THE MINISTRY OF INTERIOR AND ARMY
COMMANDERS APPEARING SELECTIVELY TO EXERCISE THEIR
OPTION UNDER THE LAW ONLY WHEN IT SUITS THEIR MOOD.
5. (C) PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR MOYANO REPORTEDLY HAS BEEN
TELLING POLITICAL LEADERS WITH WHOM HE HAS BEEN MEET-
ING (QUITELY) THAT THEY MUST WAIT UNTIL THE END OF THE
YEAR WHEN THE SUCCESSION TO THE ARMY COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF
ISSUE IS TO BE RESOLVED BEFORE THE VIDELA GOVERNMENT
WILL BE ABLE TO REVEAL ITS POLITICAL PLANS AND PERMIT
A GREATER DEGREE OF POLITICAL ACTIVITY AND DIALOGUE.
6. (C) PERONIST TRADE UNION LEADERS SINCE 1976 HAVE
BEEN CONSIDERABLY MORE ASSERTIVE THAN THE POLITICIANS
IN TERMS OF DEFYING THE SUSPENSION OF POLITICAL
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ACTIVITIES AND RESISTING THE MILITARY GOVERNMENT'S EFFORTS
TO REMODEL THE COUNTRY'S POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC SYSTEM.
THE GOVERNMENT, WE BELIEVE, WON A SIGNIFIACNT VICTORY
WHEN THE "COMMITTEE OF 25" LABOR LEADERS FAILED TO
STAGE MORE THAN A PARTIAL GENERAL STRIKE ON APRIL 27
IN RESISTANCE TO KEY PIECES OF REFORM LEGISLATION UNDER
CONSIDERATION--THE PROPOSED NEW TRADE UNION AND SOCIAL
PROJECT RULES. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THAT THE GOVERNMENT
IS NOT PROCEEDING AHEAD FULL SPEED WITH THE PROPOSED
REFORMS IN A WAY THAT BLATANTLY DEMONSTRATES THAT THE
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REGIME IS CONVINCED IT HAS WON A CLEAR-CUT VICTORY.
'DIVISIONS WITHIN THE MILITARY MAY BE THE CAUSE--SEE
PARA 8.) RATHER, THE GOVERNMENT CONTINUES TO MOVE
CAUTIOUSLY, AND FURTHER DELAYS IN THE PROMULGATION OF
THE TRADE UNION LAW ARE POSSIBLE. EVEN IF THE LAW IS
ISSUED WITHIN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, THE
GOVERNMENT MAY NOT ALLOW NEW UNION ELECTIONS TO TAKE
PLACE UNTIL THE END OF 1980, AT WHICH TIME PRESIDENT
VIDLEA'S OVERALL POLITICAL PLAN SHOULD BE MORE CLEARLY
DEFINED AND PUBLIC.
7. (S) THE VIOLA SUCCESSION ISSUE WILL LOOM INCREAS-
INGLY AS A SOURCE OF TENSION AND INSTABILITY IN THE
ARMED FORCES IN THE COMING MONTHS. OUT UNDERSTANDING
IS THAT LAST YEAR VIOLA, PROBABLY IN ORDER TO BRING
ABOUT THE TRANSFER OF POTENTIAL RIVAL GENERAL SUAREZ
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BUENOS 03955 03 OF 03 190525Z
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R 171300Z MAY 79
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 0709
094156 190540Z /10
SECRETNOFORN SECTION 3 OF 3 BUENOS AIRES 3955
MASON FROM THE KEY ARMY I CORPS COMMAND TO THE CHIEF
OF STAFF POSITION IN THE ARMY, COMMITTED HIMSELF TO
STEPPING DOWN FROM THE 'COMMANDER'S JOB IN DECEMBER,
1979. VIOLA'S PLAN, WE BELIEVE, IS TO HAVE HIMSELF
DESIGNATED AS SUCCESSOR TO PRESIDENT VIDELA. WE SUSPECT
THAT HIS INTENT IS TO APPONT ARMY I CORPOS COMMANDER
GALTIERI AS HIS SUCCESSOR IN THE ARMY (THUS COMPELLING
GENERALS SUAREZ MASON AND MENENDEZ TO RETIRE). IN THE
THIRD QUARTER OF 1980, WHEN THE JUNTA IS EXPECTED TO
DESIGNATE VIDELA'S SUCCESSOR, GENERAL GALTIERI WOULD
THEN CASE HIS BALLOT FOR VIOLA AS PRESIDENT.
WITH GALTIERI AND LAMBRUSCHINI'S
SUPPORT, AIR FORCE COMMANDER GRAFFIGNA WOULD FOLLOW
SUIT, AND VIOLA'S SELECTION WOULD BE UNANIMOUSLY
APPROVED.
8. (C) IT IS NOT CLEAR, HOWEVER, THAT THE DESIGNATION
OF A VIOLA-LOYAIST SUCH AS GENERAL GALTIERI AS ARMY
COMMANDER IS IN THE BAG. THERE ARE RUMORS THAT GENERAL
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SUAREZ MASON INTENDS TO PROPOSE THAT IF HE IS PASSSED
OVER FOR THE JOB, THE DESIGNATION SHOULD BE GIVEN TO
FELLOW CAVALRY OFFICERS, EITHER INTERIOR MINISTER
GENERAL HARGUINDEGUY OR THIRD CORPOS COMMANDER GENERAL
MENENDEZ. THIS ISSUE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SITU-
ATION HEATED AND CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DELAYS IN GOVERN-
MENT PLANNING AND DECISION-MAKING UNTIL IT IS RESOLVED.
(OUT BETTING IS THAT VIOLA WILL BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT.
HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT VIOLA MAY FEEL COMPELLED
TO DELAY HIS DEPARTURE FROM THE ARMY UNTIL SOMETIME IN
1980 IN ORDER TO REDUCE TO AN ABSOLUTE MINIMUM THE AMOUNT
OF TIME THAT HE IS OFFICIALLY OUT OF CIRCULATION.)
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9.(C) WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT THE PRESIDENT WHO TAKES
OVER IN MARCH 1981, WHETHER VIOLA OR NOT, WILL BE A
RETIRED MILITARY MAN DESIGNATED BY THE JUNTA. WE DOUT
THAT ANY OPPOSITION POLITICAL FORCE OR DESTABILIZING
EVENT THAT COULD HAPPEN ALONG BETWEEN NOW AND 1981
WILL PROVE SUFFICIENTLY CATACLYSMIC TO UNDERMINE THE
BROAD SCENARIO PAINTED ABOVE IN SUCH A WAY AS TO
FORCE THE MILITARY TO RETURN TO THE BARRACKS BEFORE
1981, OPENING UP THE POSSIBILITY OF THE ELECTION OF
A CIVILIAN PRESIDENT. VIOLA PRESUMABLY WOULD USE HIS
TERM OF OFFICE (QOIQAIRL TO SET IN MOTION THE FUTURE
POLITICAL PROCESS, APPOINTING CIVILIANS TO GOVERNMENT
JOBS
AND PUSHING THROUGH THE NEW CONSTITUTIONAL AND
POLITICAL PARTY RULES. POLITICANS ARE HOPEFUL THAT
THE PRESIDENT SUCCEEDING VIOLA WILL BE ELECTED IN A
POPULAR ELECTION AND INAUGURATE A NEW DEMOCRATIC
CIVILIAN GOVERNMENT, BUT THAT IS LOOKING TO FARR
AHEAD FOR OUR CRYSTAL BALL.
CHAPLIN
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