CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/03/04

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02682859
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: March 18, 2019
• Document Release Date: March 28, 2019
• Publication Date: March 4, 1951

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TOP ET
4 March 1951
Copy No. c-/ -7
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT.NO.
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Tipaith
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Feb
to
3.5(c)
3.5(c)
3.5(c)
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Anonymous source reports Soviet plans to enter Korean war
(page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Peiping reportedly committing more units to Korea (page 3).
3. Political wrangling continues in Indochina (page 4).
EASTERN EUROPE
4. Yugoslavia hopes Council of Foreign Ministers will not con-
sider Trieste issue (page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
5. French Communists appeal to "neutralists" on German neu-
tralization question (page 5).
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11A...a lila .1.
GENERAL
Anonymous source reports Soviet plans to enter Korean war:
An anonymous letter received by the New
York field office of the FBI warns the US
Government that the USSR intends to use
the forthcoming Four-Power Conference only as a smoke-screen
to hide its offensive preparations. The anonymous source alleges
that "an old World War II friend, now in a UN Iron Curtain group,"
told him all "Iron Curtain UN delegations" were informed late in
February that the USSR plans to enter the Korean war in full force
in April. The source's friend believes both Japan and Alaska will
be invaded and that Mao Tse-tung has been in Moscow getting final
instructions.
3.5(c)
(4-
3 . 3 ( h ) (2)
Comment: No evidence exists to support
the statements in this letter; it seems unlikely that such plans would
be communicated to Satellite delegations at the UN. Communica-
tions intelligence indicates that Soviet military and naval air activity
in the Far East has reached higher levels this winter than in any
previous winter and appears to be aimed at reaching a state of
readiness in the near future. Training flights have been conducted
at night and in bad weather and are increasing in length; flights of
1,000 miles are becoming common in the Tenth Air Army, operating
north from Sakhalin. Training in the Soviet fleets in the Far East
has been active during the winter. Firm information regarding the
Soviet ground forces in the Far East is lacking, but a number of unsub-
stantiated reports have mentioned troop movements to the Far East
and to Sakhalin.
FAR EAST
2. Peiping reportedly committing more units to Korea:
TOP
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3.3(h)(2)
3.5(c)
MP
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Comment: PW's and captured documents
have referred to a late January decision to the effect that Communist
forces in Korea would make a planned withdrawal to the vicinity of
the 38th Parallel where they would receive reinforcements for a
"fourth and final phase offensive." The "Fifth Field Army"
is believed to be the North China Military rea
Special Army Group: Nieh Jung-chen is known to be the Commander
of this army group; he commanded the Fifth Field Army, which was
formed (and later dissolved) in 1949 in the North China Military Area.
3. Political wrangling continues in Indochina:
3.5(c)
3.3(h)(2)
3.3(h)(2)
n Do,
Vietnamese Emperor Bao Dai has informed
US Minister Heath he is strongly opposed to 3.3(h)(2)
the polic ies of his Premier, Tran Van Huu.
When asked why he did not remove the Premier, Bao Dai replied that
even though Huu's mismanagement of the Defense Ministry would re--
sult in three or four months' delay in the formation of a Viet Nam
army, he could not "risk" disposing of the Premier at present for
fear that Huu, abetted by the French, would start a separatist move-
ment in Cochinchipa. Bao Dai commented that Huu's incompetence
would eventually become evident.
� Minister Heath comments that the Bao Dai-
Huu conflict is a "sort of civil war" between the legal central
government (headed by Huu) and a second "cabinet" (consisting of
� the Emperor and his personal following). Heath considers this de-
velopment gravely detrimental to Vietnamese national reconstruction,
to the formation of a national army and to the prosecution of the "real"
�
civil war against the Communists.
4
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3.5(c)
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RypECRET
EASTERN EUROPE
4. Yugoslavia hopes Council of Foreign Ministers will not consider
Trieste issue:
3.5(c)
Yugoslav Deputy Foreign Minister Mates
has informed US Ambassador Allen that
the Yugoslav Government hopes the Trieste 3.3(h)(2)
question will not arise at a possible Council
of Foreign Ministers, since any likely Soviet proposals would cer-
tainly be opposed to Yugoslav interests. In the event that the question
does arise, however, Mates said he wished US authorities to know
that the Yugoslav position had not changed since last summer and that
his government still favored a settlement of the Trieste question
through direct negotiation between Italy and Yugoslavia. The Yugoslav
Government, however, does not feel that the time is ripe for direct ne-
gotiations since, as long as the Italian Government does not genuinely
wish settlement, formal discussions of the issue would only exacerbate
public opinion and reverse the present favorable trend in Italian-
Yugoslav relations.
Comment: In the summer of 1950, the Yugo-
slav Government indicated to the Italian Government that it was willing
to discuss the Trieste question on the basis, in principle, of Zone A to
Italy, Zone B to Yugoslavia, with minor modifications along ethnic
lines. In his recent Reuters interview, Tito said he preferred that the
question be tabled for the present, since it was not an urgent problem
and there was no mutual desire to settle it. The Italian Government,
likewise, would prefer no international discussion of the Trieste issue
at this time; it continues to insist upon the implementation of the West's
Tripartite Declaration of 20 March 1948, which promised that the en-
tire Free Territory of Trieste would be returned to Italy.
WESTERN EUROPE
5. French Communists appeal to "neutralists" on German neutralization
question:
A" a "neutralist" mass meeting in Paris on
1 March, Pierre Cot, speaking for the
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TOpECgT
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T - .CA...e.L1.1.11 J.
Communist-front Progressive Union, seemed mainly interested in
creating a favorable climate of opinion for some eventual Soviet
proposal to neutralize Germany. This emphasis in his speech re-
ceived approving comment from "orthodox neutralists." It was
evident from the speeches that the Progressive Union has not yet
had much success in winning "orthodox neutralists" to the support
of the Soviet peace policy and, hence, Cot and his followers can be
expected to increase their efforts to exploit neutrality sentiment
during the next few months. At the same time, the French Communist
Party is understood to be conducting a covert struggle to prevent the
spread of "neutralism" and national devia.ttonism within its ranks.
Comment: This is the first report of a mass
meeting sponsored by both "orthodox" and Communist-front "neu-
tralists" and the first indication that the French Communist Party is
failing in its propaganda campaign with respect to the "orthodox neu-
tralists." By shifting its emphasis to the neutralization of Germany,
It probably hopes to accomplish two objectives: to convince those who
favor neutrality to support the Soviet peace offensive and to avert de-
fections within the Party itself.
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