CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/06/22

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02003076
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: March 18, 2019
• Document Release Date: March 28, 2019
• Publication Date: June 22, 1951

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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
I. Comment on Soviet rejection of Western terms for a Foreign Ministers'
meeting (page 3).
2. Deputies consider political aspects of Greek-Turkish adherence to NATO
(page 3).
FAR EAST
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. Comment on new Sino-Soviet tra e agreemen
NEAR EAST
6. Iranian tribal leaders offer support o UK (page 5).
EASTERN EUROPE
7� US may be involved in trial of Hungarian archbishop (page 4
WESTERN EpROPE
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GENERAL
. Comment on Soviet rejection of Western terms for a Foreign Ministers'
meeting:
The Soviet 20 June note, by offering to examine
Russia's own security agreements and reiterating that NAT and US bases
be included in any Big Four Agenda, appeared to aim at establishing a suit-
able propaganda position for Soviet refusal to agree on any agenda at all.
The note stated that the USSR had no objections to discussing its treaties
of mutual assistance with China, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Rum-
ania, Bulgaria, Finland and, finally, with France and Britain, Soviet
treaties with the Satellites are bilateral and are directed specifically against
a resurgent Germany or Japan. In return, the USSR asked the Western
powers to agree to discuss the North Atlantic Treaty arrangements as a
principal cause of tension in Europe. The USSR implied that, in order to
alleviate the tension, the Western powers should suspend their defense pro-
gram.
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2. Deputies consider political aspects of Greek-Turkish adherence to NATO:
Discussion of the political aspects of Greek-
Turkish adherence to the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization commenced on 19 June, with all
participants in full agreement that the linking
of Greece and Turkey with Western defense was desirable but with no agree-
ment as to the means to accomplish this end., The Netherlands delegate
expressed the fear that NATO membership for these countries would in-
crease the general tension and the possibility that any incident would be-
come critical. The French representative countered this argument by
stating that so action is possible if NATO is governed by a fear of provoking
the USSR.
Comment: While considerable wrangling is
anticipated in view of the well-known fears in NATO countries, it is anti-
cipated that the Deputies will ultimately come forth with a recommendation
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aimed at extending collective security to Greece and Turkey. The British
Government has already suggested an examination of the possibility of a
US-UK- French security guarantee to Greece and Turkey.
FAR EAST
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4. Comment on new Sino-Soviet trade agreement:
TASS reports that two trade protocols signed
in Moscow n 15 June provide for a considerable increase in trade between
the USSR and Communist China. Acco.rding to Chinese Communist state-
ments, trade with the USSR, which has traditionally been unimportant, came
to about one-fourth of China's total foreign trade in 1950. Under the newly-
signed protocols, Sino-Soviet trade is expected to increase considerably in
1951 and should, in the case of some items, counter the adverse effects of
Western trade embargoes.
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6. 1,-anian tribal leaders offer support to UK:
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The US Embassy in Tehran reports that two
senior chiefs of the Qashqai tribe called secret-
ori the UK Ambassador on49 June; -express-
ing concern over the trend of events in Iran
and forecasting disturbances and a possible breakdown of authority, espec-
ially in the-southern oil area. They saw no promise of an early improvement
in the situation, and added that only the USSR profits from the,existing weak-
ness and confusion in Iran. The tribal leaders reportedly stated that the
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British could count on the Qashqais in the event of serious disturbances.
Comment it 4TheMashqais, one of the major
tribal groups in Iran, are located in the'pOuntainous area to the,vaSt of
Abadan, where the oil installations are losated. The Iranian Government
has been concerned over rumors that the UK was agitating among the tribes,
and several tribal leaders recently felt it necessary to reaffirm their loy-
alty to the Shah. Although the UK has disavowed any machinations among
the tribes, it is generally considered that in the event of a direct conflict
between the UK and Iran, the UK would obtain some tribal support. This
is, however, the first firm indication of tribal cooperation that could aid
the British in maintaining their position in the area. Qashqai support for
the British would presumably be aimed at achieving tribal autonomy.
EASTERN EUROPE
7. US may be involved in trial of Hungarian archbishop: 3.3(h)(2)
Archbishop Grosz and seven alleged accom-
plices, including a former US Legation employ-
ee, are scheduled to go on trial on 22 June for
conspiring against the present Communist re-
gime. The US Charge in Budapest is certain that the US willte involved
in the trial and that possibly some Legation staff members will be declared
personae non grata'. He adds that Minister Davis may also be implicated.
The Charge further points out that the Hungarian Government's close
scrutiny of USIS activities several months ago may have been for the pur-
p sefof obtaining evidence, to justify the discontinuance of USIS functions.
Comment: In July 1950 the above mentioned
US Legation employee, a Hungarian, was instrumental in establishing a
contact between the Legati n and an alleged representative of a secret gov-
ernment headed by Archbishop Grosz. It is not known whether this employee
was a Communist agent attempting to involve the US Legation in a plot, or
whether he was actually a contact man for an existing underground group.
There has been recent evidence that the latter may have been the case.
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Involvement of the US Legation would provide the regime with a long
awaited excuse for restricting the activities of the USIS office, where the
accused worked. Therefore, it seems likely that if any staff member is
expelled it would be the head of USIS in Budapest.
WESTERN EUROPE
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8. Total ban of Communist youth organization in West Germany predicted: 3.3(h)(2)
official believes that a total ban of the Comt
munist Free German Youth (FDJ) will be ''3 3(h)(2)
posed by the government. Officials are still
considering a simultaneous ban of the Communist Party and the nee-Nazi
Socialist Reich Party. The West German cabinet has discussed possible
measures against the FM-, partly as a result of the demonstration against
rearmament held on 17 June in the vicinity of Bonn. Ministry of Interior
officials comnient that this demonstration, which was eventually broken up
by the local police, was extremely well planned and expertly camouflaged
from prior police detection.
Comment: While it may not be possible to ban
the FIN before the World Youth Festival scheduled to be held by the Corn,
munists during August in Berlin, the stiffening attitude of the Federal Re-
public is likely to reduce FDJ preliminary activity and limit the participa-
tion of West German wiriembers 9f the FDS in the festival.
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