CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/05/18

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02733127
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: March 18, 2019
• Document Release Date: March 28, 2019
• Publication Date: May 18, 1951

MO
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is May 1951
Copy No. u
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
Ii DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANCED TO: TS
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH HR -
DATE! FREVIEVVER:
Uter
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Indonesia favors USSR and Communist China participation in
Japanese peace treaty, but will sign regardless (page 3).
FAR EAST
2, Major Communist effort seen in central sector (page 3). trir"--
10+44�
NEAR EAST
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3. India will probably abstain on strategic embargo against China'14--1-.4) t*--Frr74
(page 4).
4. USSR urges Iran to accept planes to combat locust plague
(page 4).
4).
5. French officer accuses Israel of being unfriendly to France (page5).7-51frf!4-gs
6. Iraq sends an air squadron for "Syria's protection" (page 6).rffrir
WESTERN EUROPE
3.3(h)(2)
7. Projected French military expenditures for 1952 greater than fore- .r-grio
seen (page 6).
9. Spanish relations with France near breaking point (page 8). frA
H. Norwegian roreign. Office favors admission of Greece and Turkey 41-trrc7riir,
to NATO (page 9). 3.3(h)(2)
)044-1.Q.,
41.6-5-7
* * * *
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GENERAL
I. Indonesia favors USSR and Communist China participation in Japanese
peace treaty, but will sign regardless:
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The Indonesian Foreign Minister has informally
told the US Ambassador in Djakarta that, in
line with Indonesia's independent foreign
policy, his government would like to see
both Soviet Russia and Communist China participate in the Japanese
peace treaty. He added, however, that if this should not prove feasible,
Indonesia would be willing to go ahead without them.
Comment: Subardjo's statement represents
the first time an Asian nation has committed itself to participate in a
Japanese peace treaty which was boycotted by the USSR and from which
Communist China was excluded. In spite of some reluctance, it is
nevertheless expected that all other Asian nations invited to sign a
treaty will do so.
FAR EAST
2. Major Communist effort seen in central sector:
In an estimate of the enemy's capabilities,
the US Far East Command states that "the
latitude and scale of enemy reconnaissance
activity and aggressive patrolling in the
past 24 hours strongly indicate anew of-
fensive effort," It concludes that while the enemy is still capable of
launching a major attack along the eastern approaches to Seoul, the
recent shift of major Chinese Communist forces to the Chunchon area
in the central sector points to the Chunchon-Wonju corridor as the
projected zone for the enemy's initial major effort.
Comment: While it is indicated that the
major Communist effort will be in the central sector, strong diver-
sionary attacks probably will be launched on both the eastern and
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western flanks of the UN line. In the eastern sectcir,
the North Korean V Corps has probably been
ordered to join the III Corps in its eastward attack towards the coast.
On the west, the North Korean VI Corps is believed to be moving
southward hti the battle area to support the I Corps. A Chinese
prisoner taken on the Kimpo Peninsula states that his unit (possibly
an element of a new major Chinese Communist force, the 2nd Army
Group) will attempt to outflank the strong UN position at Seoul by
launching an attack across the Ilan River down the weakly-defended
Kimpo Peninsula west of Seoul.'
NEAR EAST
3. India will probably abstain on strategic embargo against China:
On 16 May, the Secretary-General of the
Indian Ministry of External Affairs informed
the US Embassy in New Delhi that India's
stand regarding an embargo on strategic
materials destined for China would be determined by political con-
siderations and not by its views n arthaments. The Secretary-General
stated further that while India could hardly vote against a UN resolution
In view of its attitude toward peace, it could not easily vote for the
restolution after having refused to rand Communist China as an ag-
gressor. He therefore believed it likely that India would abstain.
Comment: India has not looked with favor
upon the idea of an embargo against China � Thus, if India abstains
from voting on the pr posed embargo, it may feel free to deal with
China as it sees fit. In any event� India may be expected to interpret
the embargo terms in an independent manner.
4. USSR urges Iran to accept planes to combat locust plague:
The Iranian Minister of Agriculture has
advised the US Embassy in Tehran that the
USSR is strongly urging Iran to accept the
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use of eight small Soviet planes equipped for spreading poison bait.
The Iranians are seriously considering the offer. These planes
would be used in Eastern Iran, along the route that the locusts
usually travel north toward the Soviet border.
Comment: In making this offer, the Soviet
Government was probably concerned lest the locust plague, which has
been unusually severe in Iran this year, spread into the USSR. In
April, the Iranians accepted a Soviet offer of two men and some ma-
terial to assist in combating the plague. The Soviet Government is
doubtless aware of the intelligence and propaganda possibilities in-
herent in its offer.
5. French officer accuses Israel of being unfriendly tt France:
Comment: Israel has publicly protested
Colonel Bossavy's rulings and the Israeli Am tassador in Washington
has told the US Department of State that Israel was concerned over
"French pro-Syrian " Reports from the French UN repre-
sentatives and from the French Consul General in Jerusalem have on
occasion revealed strong anti-Israeli sentiment While France is
making formal efforts to remain on cordial terms with Israel, its
interest in rebuilding French influence in Syria and Lebanon, as well
as the anti-Israeli attitude of some of its official representatives, make
the maintenance of a semblance of neutrality difficult.
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6. Iraq sends an air squadron for "Syria's protection.
On 16 May, the Chief. of Operations of the
Iraqi General Staff Wormed the US Military
Attache in Bagdad that the ground elements
of one Iraqi air squadron and a 40 mm, air-
craft unit would arrive in Damascus on 17 May. The Iraqi Officer
stated that this action was "purely defensive" and only for Syria's pro-
tection- The US Ambassador in Bagdad is inclined to take the Iraqi
statement at facet value, although he recognizes the danger of volatile
Arab public opinion and the "subterranean growlings" to the effect that
violent action may be the only way of dealing with "repeated Israeli
aggression."
that twelve planes were involved.
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Comment: Iraq's precipitous action will
exacerbate the Israeli-Syrian dispute. Syria will derive some en-
couragement from Iraqi support and, at the same time, the new threat
will rally public opinion in Israel. The support given by Iraq will in-
duce otter Arab states to consider somewhat more seriously the pos-
sibility or doing likewise if for no other reason than to prevent Iraq
from achieving a special position in Syria.
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Pr jected French military expenditures for 1952 reater than foreseen:
According to the US Embassy in Paris, the
level of French military expenditures now
being projected for 1952 will probably reach
$4 billion. This would be 50 percent above
the 1951 level and 16. 5 percent of the national income. A military
eff rt of this magnitude is expected to result in a budget deficit of $3.1
billion for 1952. The Embassy comments that the $2,1 billion deficit
for 1951 has already called for at least $285 million more in infla-
tionary borrowing than. the French say their economy should carry. In
view of the prolonged bickering over the extent of French commitments
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following the October .1950 US-French talks, some French officials
hesitate to present the. US with this projection ad again risk US dis-
appointment in the event, of later reductions.,
Comment The tentative figure of $4 billion
for military expenditures in 1952 represents more than a 15 percent
increase over the March ECA estimate for 1951 The military programs
on which the- projected expenditures are based are already under Way,.
and there is no reason at this time to expect that the new Assembly will
, cut back rearmament when it meets in July.
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9. Spanish relations with France near breaking point:
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The US Embassy in Madrid reports that Spanish-
French relations were strained almost to the
breaking point by the Spanish Government's 3.3(h)(2)
threat to close French schools in Spain in
retaliation for the French failure to evict Basque Nationalists from a
Spanish government-owned building in Paris. Only General Franco's
last-minute decision to "postpone indefinitely" this retaliatory measure
averted the recall of the French Ambassador in Madrid. Spain alleges
that the premises in question are a focal point of Basque anti-Franco
and pro-strike activity. The US Embassy comments that this, together
with an anti-French campaign in the Spanish press, marks the inception
of an official campaign to blame the Spanish strikes on French laxity
in controlling anti, Franco "subversive elements" in France.
Comment: The French action in granting
asylum to active Spanish anti- Franquists has always been considered
by Franco to be a hostile act. The recent upsurge of government
strikes in Spain has made him even more sensitive on this point. This
particular incident is part of the larger Spanish effort to shift the blame
for the country's chronic economic ailments to "foreign and Spanish
elements working against the best. interests of Spain." In the past,
Franco has effectively used appeals to Spanish national pride and latent
xenophobia', but in the present case this tactic would seem to have less
chance of success.
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11. Norwegian Foreign Office favors admission of Greece and Turk97 to
bership in NATO,.
The Norwegian Foreign Office will recommend
to the Cabinet and the Foreign Affairs Com- 3.3(h)(2)
mittee of Parliament that Norway support the
admission of Greece and Turkey to full mem-
Comment: The Foreign Office recommenda-
tion represents a complete reversal of Norway's previous position.
Heretofore, Norway has felt that the inclusion of these Mediterranean
countries in NATO would weaken the defense system by 0er-extending
it and would alter the nature of the alliance from one primarily against
CommuniSm to an outright anti-USSR pact. Now, although still con-
cerned lest the northern flank receive only subsidiary treatment,
Norway has broadened its concept of the needs of a comprehensive
defense system.
3.5(c)
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