CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/06/12

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 02003069
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: March 18, 2019
• Document Release Date: March 28, 2019
• Publication Date: June 12, 1951

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12 June 1951
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
_EAR EAST
1. Hong Kong official "not optimistic" over Korean peace prospects
(page 3).
2. Bao Dal's popularity in Vietnam apparently increasing (page 3).
NEAR EAST
3. Oil Company plans to offer financial assistance to Iran (page 4).
EASTERN EUROPE
4. Collectivization constitutes serious problem in Soviet Orbit (page 5).
5. Additional peasant demonstrations reported in Bulgaria (page 5).
7. Yugoslav officials react favorably to senate hearings on US foreign
policy (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
8. French Communists concede election los6es (page 7).
LATIN AMERICA
9. Panamanian Government to penalize ships violating UN embargo,
(page 8).
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TEre�IlitertEr
FAR EAST
1. Hong Kong official "not optimistic" over pea�ospects
Geoffrey Aldington, Political Advisor to the3.3(h)(2)
Hong Kong Government, has told US Consul
General McConaughy that he sees"no sign of
war weariness" among the Chinese, nor of
a disposition on the part of the Communist
leadership to "come to terms." Aldixigton believes that Peiping has
sold the Chinese people on a "holy war" to defend China's borders and
had "added greatly to its stature" by demonstrating its ability to "fight
a foreign war against arpowerful enemy." McConaughy, who feels that
the British official has "greatly overestimated" popular support of
Peiping's intervention in Korea, states that "almost all" mainland in-
formants agree that opposition to Peiping is "very general" among all
Classes except younger students and the regime's own functionaries.
Commexitn The basis of Aldington's estimate
is not known. Available ev-ide indicates that p*pular support for
Peiping 's domestic and foreign policies is not widespread. However,
Peiping's control over the populace appears to be firm, and the
regime's new campaign for funds to buy heavy equipment for Korea
indicates that the Communists intend to force the Chinese people to
contribute increasingly to the Korean venture.
2. Bao DaUs popularity in Vietnam
3.3(h)(2)
US Minister Heath reports that the presence
of 35, 000 "highly interested if not deliriously
enthusiastic" spectators at the 6 June commemora-
tion of the unification of the Annamese Kingdom
marked this festival as a striking success in contrast with the relative
apathy shown on a similar occasion a year ago. During a parade of
yough delegations and Vietnamese troops before Bao Dat and Premier
Huu, the French remained discreetly in the background and no French
troops paraded. Heath believes that the size of the crowd indicates
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Bao Dal's increased popularity and testifies to the authority and
organizing ability of Premier Tran Van Huu's.givernment.
Comment: This development is the more
significant in that Bao Dal's popularity has always been lower in Saigon
that in other areas of Vietnam. The favorable popular response testi-
fies also to increasingly harmonious relations between Bao Dai and
Premier Tran Van Huu,
NEAR EAST
3. Oil Company plans to offer financial assistance to Iran:
3.3(h)(2)
The UK Foreign Office has indicated to the US
Embassy in London that the Anglo-Iranian Oil
Company will offer some financial assistance
to Iran at the: start of the forthcoming negotia-
tions, if in turn the government will agree not to take any provocative
action in the oil areas in connection with implementing the oil nation-
alization law during the negotiations. The Embassy reports that the
British Foreign Office has become concerned over the recent increase
in anti-British and anti-AIOC propaganda in Iran.
Comment: Prime Minister Mossadeq, who
is seriously concerned ver his government's straightened financial
circumstances, probably will be tempted by the offer, particularly
since he himself does not want to take any step which would prevent
a peaceful solution of the matter with AMC. The danger remains,
however, that Mossadeq will not be able to control events in the oil
fields. Although he himself has exhibited an increasingly moderate
tone on the matter in discussing it with Ambassador Grady, his govern3.3(h)(2)
ment colleagues have continued to stir up the country with itheir violent
speeches in favor of nationalization.
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EASTERN EUROPE
4. Collectivization constitutes serious problem in Soviet Orbit
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Reporting on the recent action of the Polish
Politburo dissolving a Party District Com-
mittee for agricultural collectivization abuses,
US Embassy Warsaw comments that this action
is symptomatic of the serious doctrinal and practical problems raised
by collectivization in the Soviet (*bit. The Embassy notes as evidence
of Communist pre-occupation with this problem z (1) recent modifica-
tions of the collectivization program in Poland and Hungary; and (2)
airing of collectivization difficulties in Czechoslovakia during the recent
Party upheavals.
Comment Collectivization has been used by
the Communists to release manpower for industrial expansion and also
as a means of controlling the peasantry. While the former objective
has been achieved in part, control of the peasant, particularly in the
European satellites, remains a serious problem. This is illustrated,
by recent steps taken in Bulgaria, which is 52% collectivized, to organize
a Party control apparatus within the Ministry of Agriculture to insure
the proper'. functioning of Bulgaria's agricultural production.
5. Additional peasant detcnonstrations_Lesated in Bulgaria
3.3(h)(2)
The Turkish press and radio during the past
week have reported simultaneous anti-
Communist peasant demonstrations through-
out Bulgaria. The US Consulate in Istanbul
states that "uprisings in Bulgaria have been
partial", confirmed" by Bulgarian immigra ts
interrogated in Turkey who state that demonstra-
tions took place in the widely separated cities
of Shuman, Pleven and Svilengrad late in May. The immigrants also
stated that anti-regime pamphlets have been recently distributed in
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large Bulgarian towns.
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7. Yu oslav officials react favorably_talenate hearings on S fOrein.
po cy: 3.3(h)(2)
Ambassador Allen reports that bighrugoslav
officials have generally reacted favorably to
the current debate on US foreign policy and
have expressed confidence that the administra-
tion's policy will be vindicated. Yugoslav leaders have followed with
particular interest and approval Senator Fulbright's view that US
foreign policy should be based on opposition to aggression and his op-
position to MacArthur's inclination to view all Marxists alike. Ambassa�
dor Allen feels that the debate will have salutary results in Yugoslavia
by convincing the Yugolsavs that US policy is based squarely on opposi-
tion to aggression and that the US is supporting rearmament solely for
defensive purposes.
WESTERN EUROPE
8. French Communists concede election losses:
3.3(h)(2)
The French Communist Party (PCF) estimated
that, because of the new electoral law, it will
lose about 40 of the 180 seats it controlled in
the last Assembly; therefore, it is concentrat-
ing on obtaining a large popular vote in order to retain the propaganda
value of the claim that the PCF is the leading popular force in France.
The PCF is expected to intensify, some time after the elections, its
efforts to disrupt French economic recovery and defense efforts, and
also to try to "create conditions" for the establishment of a govern-
ment which would dissociate France from NATO.
Comment: The PCF has been encouraged by
recent evidence that inflation has increased popular susceptibility to
Communist propaganda. Party leaders will attempt to turn this at-
traction totthe PCF economic program into acceptance of Communist
political aims. Despite the favorable reaction of the French working
class to Communist labor policy as a result of the successful March 1951
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strikes, the French people probably will continue to distinguish sharply
between PCF economic and political policies.
LATIN AMERICA
9. Panamanian Government to penalize ships violating UN embargo: 3.3(h)(2)
Following a US request, the Foreign Minister
of Panama stated that his government would
report to the UN Additional Measures Com-
mittee, prior to 18 June, the penalties which
Panama would apply to ships of Panamanian registry violating the UN
embargo.
Comment: The subtraction of ships under
Panamanian registry from the Western flag vessels carrying strategic
materials to Communist China would be a substantial contribution to
the effectiveness of the UN embargo, since the Panamanian merchant
marine isc one of the largest (approximately 900) in the4vorld. Ef-
fective enforcement of penalties, however, might reduce the number
of ships registered in Panama and thereby cut into the government's
revenue from registry and property taxes. Consequently, the degree
of enforcement will be a further test of the cooperativeness-pf the newly
installed Arose mena administration.
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