WINTER-SPRING CAMPAIGN ON THE FOURTH DAY OF TET OFFENSIVE

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Tet Declassified
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06766059
• Document Creation Date: January 28, 2019

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Intelligence Information cable
e(TIORtTY
IN 43473
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THIS IS AN INFORMATION REPORT. EgI, FINALLY EVALUATED INTELLIGENCE.
0320247 CITE
DIST 3 FEBRUARY, 1968
COUNTRY SOUTH VIETNAM
DOI 3 FEBRUARY 1968
SUBJECT INT ER -SPRING CAMPAIGN ON THE.FOLIRT H DAY OF T ET OFFENSIVE
ACQ VIETNAM, SAIGON (3 FEBRUARY 1968)
SOUR CE
SUMMARY: ALTHOUGH THE SITUATION IN ALL FOUR CORPS AREAS WAS RELA-
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T IVEL Y QUIET ON THE FOURTH DAY OF THE VIET CONG (VC) TET OFFENSIVE,
LARGE VO UNITS ST ILL REMAIN U ,COMM ITTED AND THE VC COULD THUS RESUME
LARGE-SCALE ACTION IF THEY SH...ULD CHOOSE TO DO SO. PRISONER IN1ERROGA -
T IONS SUGGEST THAT THE TEl OFFENSIVE WAS A GO-FOR-BROKE OPERATION: WITH
THE VC HOPING FOR VICTORY BUT FEW EXPECTING ONE. THE VC HAVE WON CER-
TAIN SUCCESSES--DESTRUCTION OF LARGE PARTS OF MANY CITIES, DISRUPT:EON OF
NORMAL FOOD DISTRIBUTION, HORDES OF NEW REFUGEES, ETC. ON THE OTHER HAND
THEY HAVE Lost, EXTREMELY LARGE NUMBERS OF PERSONNEL AND NOWHERE HAS THE
POPULACE RISEN UP TO JOIN THEM AS THEY EXPECT ED OR, AT LEAST, AS T HE VC
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LEADERS PROMISED THEIR MEN WOULD BE THE. CASE. THE VC VERY PROBABLY WILL
SOON LAUNCH HIS LONG-HERALDED OFFENSIVE NEAR THE DMZ BUT IT IS ST ILL PRO-
BLUAT ICAL IF THEY WILL COMM IT OT HER REr A IN ING UNITS THROUGHOUT THE COUN1
RY
TO A RESUMPTION OF THE ATTACKS OF THE LAST FOUR DAYS. END SUMMARY.
1. ALTHOUGH NOTHING LIKE A FINAL ASStSSMENT CAN YET BE MADE,
SOMETHING TANGIBLE IS EMERGING IN THE QUIET AND EXHAUSTION WHICH,
MOMENTARILY PERHAPS, HAVE REPLACED THt HECTIC ACTIVITY OF
THE FIAST THREE DAYS OF THE TET OFFENSIVE. RELATIVE QUIET AND
CONTROL HAVE BEEN RESTORED IN I, II, AND III CORPS AND THE SITUATION
IS IPROVING DESPITE RENEWED ENEMY ATTACKS IN IV CORPS. ON THE
OTHER HAND, MAJOR ENEMY UNITS REMAIN UNCOMMITTED IN I, II, AND
III CORPS; ACTION ON A SCALESIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PAST THREE DAYS
COULD RESUME IF THE ENEMY SO CHOSE: THE VC 9TH DIVISION COULD BE
PUT INTO ACTION AGAINST THE SAIGON AREA; AND THE KHE SANH BOMB
REMAINS UNEXPLODED.
2. THE KEY FACTOR IS, OF COURSE, ENEMY INTENTIONS. PRISONER
INTERROGATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO COME IN AND RADIO HANOI AND LIBERATION
RADIO CONTINUE THEIR MASSIVE BROADSIDES CLAIMING VICTORY AND RE-
ATING THE CALL FOR NEGOTIATIONS OF THE BASIS OF THE APPEALS OF
CH P fRGANIeATANS Ai* "FRONT OF NATIONAL, DEMOCRATIC,
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AND PEACE ALLIANCE" OF HUE CITY. (TAKEN TOGETHER, THIS EVIDENCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE ENEMY WENT FOR BROKE AND, SO FAR, HAS
FAILED.) ALTHOUGH THE ENEMY STILL HAS UNCOMMITTED FORCES AND COULD
130 FOR BROKE AGAIN IT MUST BE REMEMBERED THAT HE HAS SUFFERED
GREAT LOSSES (12,704 KIA AND 010 3,000 DETAINEES FROM 29 JANUARY
TO 3 FEBRUARY), THAT HE CANNOT AGAIN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE UNIQUE
CIRCUMSTANCES OF THE TET HOLIDAY, AND THAT THE GOVERNMENT OF VIETNAM (GVN
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HAS NOT CRACKED AS HE APPARENTLY EXPECTED IT WOULD. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
HAVE BEEN SOME INDECISIVENESS AMONG TOP CIVILIAN LEADERS, ALTHOUGH THIEU
SPOKE TO THE NAT ION SOMEWHAT LATE, ALTHOUGH SOME INTELLECTUALS WITHOUT
A POLITICAL FOLLOWING MAY BE SPEAKING OF THE NEED FOR NEGOTIATIONS,
THE FACT REMAINS THAT ARVN AND LOCAL SVN FORCES, INCLUDING RD
CADRES, HAVE AcQUITTED THEMSELVES WELL.
3. VIET CONG (VC) EXPECTATIONS, AND SOME CLUE TO FUTURE INTENTIONS,
CAN BE GLEANED FROM PRISONER INTERROGATIONS SUCH AS THE FOLLOWING.
A PRISONER CAPTURED IN SAIGON SAID HE SURRENDERED AFTER FIGHTING
NIGHT AND DAY, BEING PROMISED SUPPORT WHICH DID NOT COME, AND BEING
REFUSED PERMISSION TO WITHDRAW. A PRISONER INVOLVED IN THE ATTACK
ON THE U.S. EMBASSY HAS STATED THAT THE VC WERE TOLD.TO HOLD THE
EMBASSY AGAINST COUNTER-ATTACKS UNTIL VC REINFORCEMENTS ARRIVED
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�SE ET NO F9BEIGNIliS EN
S.
-ON 31 JANUARY* PRISONERS IN KONTUM AND PLEIKU STATE THAT THE
ORDER WAS TO TAKE THE PROVINCE CAPITALS AND HOLD THEM FOR SEVEN
DAYS. THE VC DEPUTY CHIEF FOR SECURITY IN AN GIANG PROVINCE,
.CAPTURED31.JANUARY, STATES THAT WORD ON THE TET OFFENSIVE WAS GIVEN
TWO WEEKS IN ADVANCE AT PROVINCE*LEVEL BRIEFINGS LASTING THREE
DAYS AT WHICH IT WAS STATED THAT THE ATTACK WAS TO CMATE.CONDITIONS
WHICH WOULD BRING THE U.S. GOVERNMENT TO NEGOTIATE IN ORDER TO
PROCEED TO PEACE. THEY WERE TOLD THAT THE TIME WAS RIPE FOR AN
UPRISING. IT WAS THE OPINION OF THIS PRISONER THAT THE VC WERE
COMMITTING EVERYTHING IN A GO-FOR-BROKE ATTACK AND THAT WHILE MOST
HOPED, FEW EXPECTED SUCCESS* NO PLANS FOR RETREAT WERE MADE LEST
THIS HURT THE MORALE OF THE TROOPS* THERE WAS NO SAND TABLING OF
THE OPERATION. AND THE LACK OF POPULAR SUPPORT IS,JN THIS
PRISONER'S OPINION, HAVING A BAD EFFECT ON MORALE. A PRISONER IN
PLEIKU HAD BEEN TOLD"TAKE PLEIKU OR DO NOT RETURN." NORTH VIETNAMESE -
INVA) PRISONERS IN NHA TRANG STATE THAT THEY WERE TOLD THEY COULD TAKE
NHA TRANG BECAUSE OF THE VC ORGANIZATION IN THE CITY, THE NVA
OFFICERS DID NOT BELIEVE THIS BUT WENT ON WITH THE ATTACK IN
ORDER TO. SUPPORT THE NATION-WIDE EFFORT AND MAKE SUCCESS POSSIBLE:
ELSEWHERE*ONE-MAN-IU twAtio NAM "RALLIED" BECAUSE HE WAS THE SOLE
SURVIVOR OF OF MIS PLATOON. A .15��YEAR.OLD PRISONER IN CAN THO
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REPORTS THAT HE WAS PRESSED INTO SERVICE ONE MONTH AGO, WAS
TOLD TO INFILTRATE CAN THO TO CELEBRATE TET, AND ONLY AFTER
THEY WERE IN THE CITY WERE THE VC REASSEMBLED, ISSUED WEAPONS,
AND TcLD OF THE ATTACK. VC RETREATING FROM SAIGON WERE REPORTED
1;E:..3RALIZED BUT UNDER COMPLETE CONTROL OF THEIR LEADERS.
UNDER THE HEADING OF VC SUCCESSES ONE CAN LIST SUCH FACTS
AS THE DESTRUCTION OF LARGE PORTIONS OF HUE, BEN TRE, MY THO, AND
OTHER CITIES. PEOPLE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE VC AND THE GVN FORCES,
WHO HAVE BEEN HARD HIT IN MANY CASES, WITH SOME JUSTIFICATION TO
THE CHARGES OF INDISCRIMINATE FIRING, ARE BITTER AGAINST BOTH
SIDES. RUMORS HAVE BEEN FLYING -- AT FIRST RUMORS OF A COUP
(KY ACTING AGAINST THIEU, BEACUSE OF THE ABSENCE OF THIEU FROM THE
CAPITAL AT THE TIME OF THE ATTACK), RUMORS OF COALITION GOVERNMENT
(INCLUDING U.S. SUPPORT FOR THIS GOVERNMENT AGAINST THE GVN, RUMORS FED
3Y LIBERATION RADIO PROPAGANDA); AND RUMORS OF DRASTIC SHAKE UP IN THE
GVN AFTER ORDER IS REESTABLISHED. PEOPLE HAVE BEEN SURPRISED AT THE VC
STRENGTH AND DISMAYED THAT THE GVN AND THE U.S. COULD LET SUCH A THING
HAPPEN. THERE IS GENERAL FEAR THOUGH LITTLE PANIC. A FULL ASSESSMENT
OF POPULAR ATTITUDES HAS NOT BEEN UNDERTAKEN, HOWEVER.
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5. BUT AGAINST THESE VC "SUCCESSES" THE CARDINAL FACT REMAINS
THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGN OF POPULAR INCLINATION TO SUPPORT THE
VC. sO FAR, THE UC GOAL OF POLITICAL CHAOS HAS NOT BEEN ACHIEVED.
THE wEFUGEE PROJLEM, THE DESTRUCTION, AND THE CURTAILMENT OF DIS-
LTO N OF SUPPLILS, HOWEVER, MAY FEED THE FLAMES OF SUCH
CHAOS IF THE SITUATION PERSISTS OH, MORE FEASIBLY, IS REPEATED
BY A RENEWAL OF ATTACKS.
6. hILE TH. EALe1Y WILL ALMOST CEkTAINLY SOON LAUNCH HIS
LOG-HLRALDED OifEASIVE NEAR THE DMZ IT IS STILL PROBLEMATICAL
v:HEThER HE WILL COMMIT HIS REMAINING UNITS IN THE REST OF THE
COUMTRY IN FUkTHER ALL-OUT ATTACKS. IN THE CASE OF THE RE-
INFORCEMENTS PROMISED THE VC TROOPS ATTACKING SAIGON, IT
APPEARS THAT THIS WAS CONDITIONAL UPON GREATER INITIAL SUCCESS
THAA WAS ACTUALLY ACHIEVED AND ON A MUCH GREATER POLITICAL
RESPONSIVENESS BY THE LOCAL POPULATION THAN HAS SO FAR BEEN
EVIDrACED. THE vc MAY CHOOSE TO CUT THEIR LOSSES AT THIS STAGE
AND REVERT TO THEIR TRADITIONAL HARASSING TACTICS WHILE
ATTEMPTING ONCE AGAIN TO IMPROVE THEIR POLITICAL BASE IN THE
CITIES.
7. ON THE OTHER HAND THE VC HAVE ALREADY MADE- SUCH HEAVY
SE NO FOREI ISSES
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PSYCHOLOGICAL COMMITMENTS TO THE SUCCESS OF THIS OFFENSIVE AMONG
THEIR ON FORCES THAT THEY COULD BE LOAD TO ACCEPT THE EXISTING
SITUATION BEFORE MAKING ONE Mc:ME ALL OUT smASH AT SAIGON.
REPOhT ,LASS
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ADVANCE COPY TRANSMITTED TO: WHITE HOUSE
STATE DIA ARMY NAW AIR JCS NIC NSA OCI
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