THE WINTERM-SPRING OFFENSIVE - A BIG GAMBLE? - 1967/12/09

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Tet Declassified
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06752210
• Document Creation Date: July 27, 2018

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SECT ION 1 CF 2
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VIETNAM STATION REPORT (3-9 'DECEMBER 1967) �
THE MINTERM-SPRING OFFENSIVE A BIG. GAMBLE?
RECENT ENEOY COMBAT ACTIONS, THE MOVEMENT OF.POSSIBLY
TWO ADDITIONAL DIVISIONS FROM NO ,GH VIETNAM, AND SEVERAL PIECES
caR JJ
3.5(c)
OF ,EVIDENCE
AND DOCUMENTS �COM? I 9E.
TO INDICATE THAT THE VO/NVA-ARE UNDERTAKING SOMETHING VERY .
ri.. sP
MUCH LIKE AN ALL-OUT PUCH DURING THE 1967-!I963 WINTER-ZING -
OFFENSIVE. .ON THE FACE OF IT, THIS SEEMS A MAD THING TO DO,
AND IT FLIES RIGHT IN THE FAC OF THE DICTA OF THE GIA.10:ARTICLES�::
OF ONLY THREE MONTHS AGO ABOUT CONSERVING FORCES FOR A PROTRACTED
WAR.
WHAT IS THE ENEMY UP TO AND WHAT POSSIBLE REASONS ARE
� THERE FOR HIS ODD BEHAVIOR? OUR VIEWS ARE NECESSARILY SPECU-
LATIVE; WE OFFER THE FOLLOWING AS A "THINK PIECE."
STRAN CE. ACT IONS
THE ENEMY'S STUBBORN PROLONGATION OF THE BATTLES OF LOC
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IN
THE -FACE OF
HEAVY LOSSES
(AND
�
AN EXTREMELY
12:FAVO3LE CASUALTY RATIO AT LOC N INH) INDICATE. A NEW WILL-
INGNESS TO MAINTAIN SUST.AINED COMBAT- WITH LARGE FRIENDLY FORGES
OUTSIDE THE D17. AREA. ATJI THE SAME TIME., ENEMY FORCES HAVE
DISPLAYED A MARKED INCREASE IN AGGRESSIVENESS ON. A SMALLER
SCALE . THROUGHOUT- SOUTH VIE.TN.AM. THIS IS REFLECTED NOT SO flUCH
IN THE NUMBER OF INCIDENTS AS IN THEIR ,SIZE AND INTENSITY.
NOW .IS THE
PRISONERS TAKEN AT LOC N INH SAY THEY HAD �BEEN INDOCTRI-
NATED BEFORE THE BATTLE TO MAKE A HEROIC. DO-OR-DIE EFFORT TO.
DESTROY A MAJOR FRIENDLY UNIT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH STATEMENTS
OF OTHER PRISONERS AND DEFECTORS THAT AN ALL-OUT EFFORT .IS TO
cq. AD I'. THE WINTER-SPR ING OFFENSIVE. TO BE SURE, .IT IS
STANDARD PRACTICE FOR VC INDOCTR INAT IONS-. TO STRESS THE IMPORTANCE
OF � UPCOMING CAMPAIGNS, BUT THIS TIME THERE ARE DIFFERENCES.
THERE IS A "THIS- IS- Ir TONE, AND THERE ARE IMPLICATIONS--EVEN.-
SOME APPARENTLY EXPLICIT STATEMENTS--THAT THE W IN.TER- SPRING
CAMP THE GREAT -FINAL EFFORT THAT WILL -BRING VICTORY Fr.:-;
HE, C .
INTERROGATION REPORTS AND DOCUMENTS AK OF ITS "HISTORIC
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PA GE 3 SA I CON
SIGNIFICANCE" AND "DECISIVE" NATURE. TRAINING MATERIAL. CAPTURI-,.:1-)
IN LONG AN PROVINCE, DATED 17 OCTOBER 1967, SAYS THAT THE YEAR
1.967-196S WILL CONCLUDE THE REVOLUTION IN SOUTH VIETNAM. A
22 OCTOBER REPORT OF THE VC BA BIEN PROVINCE FORWARD SUPPLY
COUNCIL SAYS: "IN THE DISCUSSION OF OUR OVERALL FAVOR ABLET
SIT UAT ION, OUR COMRADES CONFIDENTLY REALIZED THAT WE HAVE
SUFFICINT CA PA BILIT IES TO CRUSH THE. UNITED STATES IMPERIALISTS':
A CIRE SS IVE SCHEME AND WIN COMPLETE VICTORY IN THE 1967-1963
WINTER- SPR IN G PERIOD." OTHER
OCU.'1ENTS LSS PAT ABOUT
PR OM IS IN G�00:1PLETIT.- VICTORY AS AN .IMMEDIATE � ACHIEVMENT OF THE
CURRENT CAMPA I GN, BUT THEY CONSISTENTLY �SPEAK OF THIS WINTER-
. jr-ic.. � --r -
SPRING3E.IO.34-8-7-6-1-3-: AN UNDATED� COMMUNIQUE. OF THE CENXR AL
TR.UN GMCB0 PEOPLE'S LIBERATION FRONT CAPTURED -ON 12 NOVEMBER
CONTAINS EIGHT ARTICLES GOVERNING BEHAVIOR DURING THE FIRST
DAYS OF THE "L BERAT ION" OF TOWNS � AN CITIES.
. 0
A VC PLATOON LEA BEER AND TECHNICIAN WHO RALLIED IN LONG -
t=
AN PROVINCE ON 23 SE PTEM BER SAYS THAT IN THIR SEPTEMBER
INDOCTRINATION- COURSE HE AND � HIS FELLOW. CADRES AND SOLDIERS
WERE TOLD THAT THEY WOULD ACHIEVE "ULTIMATE VICTORY" DURING
THE WINTER SPRING CAMPAIGN. HE SA ID THAT THIS WAS THE FIRST
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-"DECISVE VICTORY" AND THE LAST BIG STEP BEFORE -THE "COMPLETE
VICTORY," WHICH MEANS UNIFICATION OF ALL VIETNAM UNDER
OPENLY COMMUNIST REGIME.
THE THIRD FACTOR MAY SEEM ON THE SURFACE TO BE. CONTRA-
DICTORY TO THE OTHERS, BUT IT IS NOT. THE COMMUNIST VIETNAMESE,
.NORTH A6'D SOUTH,- ARE HURTING BADLY FROM THE ACCUMULATED DRAIN
OF THE PAST TWO YEARS. THEY ARE LOSING HEALTHY YOUNG MEN . AT. THE
RATE OF ABOUT 180,000 A YEAR FROM THEIR POPULATION. BASE OF
ABOUT 99 M ILLION. THEY FACE THE LOSS OF- A GENERATION. THE
ECONOMIC AND PSYCHOLOGICAL DRAIN IS ALSO SEVERE
THE COMMUNIST LEADERS MAY THEREFORE QUESTION WHETHER
THEY. CAN SUSTAIN. PRESENT LEVELS OF ACTIVITY EVEN FOR. ONE OR
TWO MORE YEARS LET ALONG THE 5, 10, OR- 20 YEARS OF THEIR
PROPAGANDA BOASTS. THEY .X AVE TWO ALTERNATIVES: TACITLY TO
ADMIT WEAKNESS AND REDUCE THE LEVEL OF ACTIVITY, . RISKING THE
� R . .
GENERATION OF A REVEnSE MOMENTUM, A COLLAPSE OF MOF.7.LE, AND
THE DESERT ION OF ALL BUT THE HARD CORE; OR, TO USE THEIR STILL
FORMIDABLE ASSETS BOLDLY IN A FIERCE ATTACK THAT WILL GIVE THE
IMPRESSION OF GREAT STRENGTH AND POSSIBLY -W IN THEM A PARTIAL
VICTORY ("DECISIVE VICTORY", IN MEIR TERMS) WHICH WILL END
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S E E T SECII .OF
THE DRAIN ON .THEIR' RESOURCES AND PUT THEM IN A POSIT ION .TO GAIN
THEIR MAXIMUM OBJECT IVES .WITHIN A REASONABLE PERIOD OF TIME
THEY APPEAR TO HAVE CHOSEN THE .LATTER COURSE.
IN SUM p THE ENEMY APPEARS TO BELIEVE HE .HAS THE CAP AB IL LT Y
OF FORCING US IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS TO PULL OUT OF VIETNAM AND
LEAVE THE COUNTRY .UNDEROA .COALITION GOVERNMENT DOMINATED,
PERHAPS COVERTLY, BY THE COMMUNISTS. HE HAS LAUNCHED AN ALL-OUT
WINTER-SPRING CAMPAIGN ON THIS BASIS:AND HAS WHIPPED UP A LAST .
� GREAT BURST OF ENTHUSIASM AMONG HIS ACTIONS TESTIFY THAT. HE BELIEVES
HIS WORDS.
HAVING SAID THIS, LET -US HASTEN TO STRESS. THAT OUR VIEW
. OF THE PROSPECTS IS QUITE DIFFERENT FROM THE ENEMY 'S. WE
BELIEVE HE HAS DRASTICALLY MISREAD THE SITUATION, ESPECIALLY IN
REGARD. TO MILITARY CAPABILITIES�. IF HE CONT INUES . HIS PLANNED
OFFENSIVE HE WILL CAUSE US SOME PAINFUL LOSSES, BUT HIS LOSSES , (
WILL BE STAGGERING. THE MASSING OF ENLARGED FORCES PLAYS TO
OUR GREAT ADVANTAGE IN FIREPOWER, ESPECIALLY AIR POWER. HE
HAS TAKEN A GAMBLE THAT IS ALMOST CERTAIN: TO FAIL, AND THAT
FAILURE WILL HAVE A CRUSHING EFFECT ON HIS FORCES. BEFORE THE
TERM OF THE WINTER-SPRING OFFENSIVE IS FINISHED, HE WILL
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AND BE FACED WITH A DECISION WHETHER
DOWN, WITH ALL THAT WOULD ENT AIL.
PROBABLY RECOGNIZE HIS ERROR
TO CUT HIS LOSSES. BY BACKING
OR. TO PLAY OUT THE GAME REGARDLESS OF THE CONSEQUENCES.
IN EITHER CASE, THE ENEMY WILL HAVE PUT HIMSELF IN AN
UNTENABLE POSIT ION, AND AN AGRESSIVE CAMPAIGN TO EXPLOIT THIS
. SHOULD PAY OFF HANDSOMELY.
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