THE SOVIET Y-CLASS SUBMARINE CONSTRUCTION PROGRAM

• Document Type: FOIA
• Keywords: DI SOVIET ANALYSIS
• Collection: CIA Analysis of the Soviet Navy
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0002775033
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: June 19, 2017
• Document Release Date: June 19, 2017
• Case Number: SC-2007-00006
• Publication Date: October 1, 1968

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
cAJ1,4_,
ecret
AR 70-14
Intelligence Report
The Soviet Y-Class Submarine Construction Program
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Copy No.
October 1968
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CONTENTS
Page
Summary 1
Y-Class Construction at
Possible Construction at
Future Force Levels
Deployment
3
7
9
11
Appendix
History of the First Hulls 13
Construction Cycle 16
Illustrations
Y-Class Ballistic-Missile Submarine . ? ? ? 2
Shipyard 5
hipyard 8
Table
Soviet Y-Class Submarine Program: Estimated
Annual Completions and Midyear Force
Levels, 1967-75
Charts
Launchings and Deliveries of Y-Class
Submarines from
Estimated Production Schedule of
Y-Class Submarines at
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Directorate of Intelligence
October 1968
INTELLIGENCE REPORT
The Soviet Y-Class Submarine Construction Program
Summary
Production of the Soviets' new Y-class ballistic-
missile submarine at the shipyard appar-
ently will reach a level of six per year by 1969.
The evidence also indicates that fewer
being built simultaneously at
previously believed, but the estimated
six per year remains unchanged because
construction pace.
units are
than
output of
of the faster
Since the first Y-class submarine came off the
ways two years ago, probably six additional units
have been launched--the latest one in mid-September
1968.
Note: This report was produced solely by CIA. It
was prepared by the Office of Strategic Research and
coordinated with the Directorate of Science and Tech-
nology and the Office of National Estimates. The data
and conclusions in this report are consistent with,
but amplify in detail, the judgments of
Soviet Strategic Attack Forces.
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The current tempo of construction at
could result in a fleet of nearly -c ass
submarines--believed to be the Soviets' minimum
force goal--by 1974 rather than 1975 as previously
estimated, participation in the program
would enable them to reach this goal a year sooner.
Previous Soviet deployment of ballistic-missile
submarines and probable targeting requirements suggest
that about two-thirds of the Y-class force will be
based in the Northern Fleet and the remainder in the
Pacific.
Y-CLASS BALLISTIC-MISSILE SUBMARINE
7
Feet
100 200
I I i
300 400 42B
I I I
Propene:- blade-s, outer missile hatch configuration,
and Lower stern fin are estimated.
2
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Y-Class Construction at
1. New intelligence regarding Soviet production
of the 16-tube, Y-class ballistic-missile submarine
at the shipyard indicates that fewer
submarines are under construction at one time than
previously estimated, but that annual output will re-
main about the same because of a shorter construction
period for each hull.*
2. For previous submarine building programs, the
main construction hall at was divided
into six building ways, each with two hull assembly
positions. It was originally believed that the same
arrangement had been retained for construction of the
new and larger Y-class submarines. 1
Thus only four
ways are being used or Y-class construction. (See
foldout illustration, next page.) The change in
spacing of the ways allows room for installing the
large stern planes of the Y-class and provides more
room for other assembly processes. Since each of
the four ways is large enough to accommodate two
Y-class hulls end to end, eight units can be under
construction simultaneously--four in the first assem-
bly positions and four in a more advanced stage in
the second positions on the ways.
3. Seven Y-class submarines probably have been
launched thus far. The first hull came off the ways
in August or September 1966 and completed outfitting
at in June 1967. Two more units were
* This new information modifies somewhat the
judgments in SR IR 68-4, May 1968, Soviets Push
Production of Polaris-Type Submarines
3
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apparently launched in the fall of 1967 and were com-
pleted in the spring of 1968. Two more were launched
that spring, another in August, and another in Septem-
ber; all four of these units are still outfitting. This
construction history (see Appendix for details), combined
with the correlation in time between the movement of
hull sections into the main construction hall and sub-
sequent launchings of completed hulls, indicates that
Y-class submarines are being built at
in about two years time--16 months in tne construc-
tion hall and 8 months at the fitting-out quay. Here-
tofore, three years were required to assemble and out-
fit nuclear submarines at this shipyard.
4. The key to this reduction in construction
time was a substantial change in facilities that al-
lowed larger and more completely fitted submarine
hull sections to be produced in subassembly. Facil-
ity changes--begun in 1963 and completed in late 1965--
included a 30-percent increase in subassembly space
and the installation of a new, heavy-duty transverser
for shifting hull sections from the subassembly area
to the main construction hall.
5. Not until
all eight buildiny way positions were occupied.
Y-class submarines launched prior to
that
All
came
from the northernmost building ways. The two southern-
most ways were not available as early as the northern
ways, partly because they were obstructed until late
by an H-class submarine which was undergoing
extensive modification. No Y-class hulls could be
moved into the second building position on either
of the two southernmost ways until the H-class was
moved into the launch basin
6. The since the fall of
1967 indicates that one assembly position is being
loaded about every two months, each submarine spend-
ing about eight months on each of the two assembly
positions of the way on which it is being built, and
that all eight positions were occupied for the first
time in early 1968. With this and a
two-year construction cycle, a peak output of six
submarines per year will be reached by mid-1969.
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Possible Construction a
7. The possibility that Y-class submarines are
being built at the was suggested
in when revealed two
submarine hull sections at the shipyard similar in
size to Y-class sections observed earlier
This indication was strengthened by the
of a lar 9e new submarine
dock at Because of shallow
sighting in
transporter
water transporter docks must be
used to transfer large submarines from
to the delivery base at Petrovka.
8. Transporter docks presently in use in the
Pacific Fleet are too small to carry Y-class sub-
marines. The new dock--the largest ever seen in
the USSR--can accommodate submarines up to about 490
feet long and 50 feet wide. The only known class
of submarine that would require a transporter dock
of this size is the Y-class. The 55-foot-wide stern
section of the Y-class might not fit into the new
dock, but installation of the stern planes would be
a relatively simple operation and probably could
await final outfitting at Petrovka.
9. Whatever is being built at Komosomol'sk, the
construction capacity of the yard is considerably
less than that of Nuclear submarines
are built in four covered building docks, each approx-
imately 500 feet long and 80 feet wide--too small to
accommodate more than one Y-class hull per dock. (See
illustration, next page.) Beginning in 1965, how-
ever, facilities at have undergone changes
similar to those observed at permitting
the handling of larger hull sections. As at Severo-
dvinsk where such changes apparently enabled the Sovi-
ets to reduce submarine assembly and outfitting time
from three years to about two, a similar reduction
can be expected in the previous th e at
As new facilities at are
only now nearing completion, however, su marines laid
down before the new facilities were ready for use
might still take three years to build.
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10. If the Y-class is being built at
the first hull could have been laid down as early as
1965. The of an uncompleted Krupnyy-class
destroyer from e four-dock building at
in late 1964 signaled a change in the use of that
building. Work on the destroyer is believed to have
stopped about 1962, but it was kept inside the build-
ing until the end of 1964. The first hull could have
been laid down in 1965, after the Krupnyy hull was
moved outside. Assuming that Y-class hulls were laid
down in each dock as it became available, the fourth
hull could have been laid down in 1967, after delivery
of the last E-class submarine. If the first one or
two units take three years to build, they could be
launched in 1968. With a two-year production cycle
thereafter, two submarines could be produced each
year.*
Future Force Levels
11. Although the ultimate Soviet force goal is not
known th rrent tempo of Y-class construction at
and indications that a second shipyard
may be Involved in production point to a large, high-
priority program. Production programs for the N and
E classes--the most representative of previous Soviet
nuclear submarine building programs--spanned some
seven to nine years. A similar span for the Y-class
would result in at least 35 units brought into ser-
vice by mid-1973 if both and
were involved in the program. Nearly that many would
be operational by mid-1974 if alone were
involved. About 50 units could be in service by 1975
if both yards were in production. (See table, next
page, for estimated midyear force levels.)
12. A force of 35 Y-class submarines, together
with existing H- and G-class units, would provide
*
Deliveries from are limited by the navi-
gation season?June through uctober--on the Amur River.
In the past, most nuclear submarines built at Rom-
somolisk have been delivered to Petrovka during October
and have spent only a few weeks in final outfitting
there before beginning sea trials.
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Soviet Y-Class Submarine Program:
Estimated Annual Completions and Midyear Force Levels,
1967-75
COMPlehinns_(ie_nd)
Operational Force Levels
(Midyear)
Cumulative
Total
Annual
Cumula-
tive
Annual
Cumula:
tive
Total
1967
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
1968
2-3
3-4
1-2
1-2
4-6
1
0
1
1969
6
9-10
2
3-4
12-14
4-5
1-2
5-7
1970
6
15-16
2
5-6
20-22
9-10
3-4
12-14
1971
6
21-22
2
7-8
28-30
15-16
5-6
20-22
1972
6
27-28
2
9-10
36-38
21-22
7-8
28-30
1973
6
33-34
2
11-12
44-46
27-28
9-10
36-38
1974
0-6
33-40
0-2
11-14
44-54
33-34
11-12
44-46
1975
0
33-40
0
11-14
44-54
33-40
11-14
44-54
Note: A submarine is considered completed when it has been fitted out after
launch, undergone acceptance sea trials, and been accepted by the navy. It
then undergoes shakedown trials and training with operational crews before
becoming operational. Completions are tabulated on a calendar year basis, but
operational force levels are midyear figures to conform to the practice used
in National Intelligence Estimates,
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the Soviets with about the same number of ballistic-
missile launchers as in the current US Polaris force--
probably their minimum force goal. If Soviet leaders
desire comparability with the US in terms of launchers
continuously on station, a force of about 50 Y-class
units probably would be required because of the long
distances between Soviet submarine bases and patrol
areas off the US.
13. A force of 50 submarines would make the Y-
class the most expensive submarine program ever under-
taken by the Soviets. Procurement of the submarines
alone would represent an investment on the order of
$5 billion to $6 billion measured in equivalent US
terms. Missiles and other system investments would
add some $2 billion to $3 billion. This does not
include operational and maintenance costs which would
also be substantial. Estimated annual procurement
expenditures for the Y-class through 1975 would be
more than two-thirds the average annual outlay for
all submarines built during the 1958-1967 period and
would comprise nearly half the estimated average annual
procurement expenditures for all of the submarines
likely to be produced during the 1968-1977 period.
14. New policy decisions or the development of
a new missile system could, of course, result in a
shorter production run than the 35-50 currently
estimated. Operational experience might also dictate
design changes which could cause production rates
to fall short of the current estimates.
Deployment
15. The firs Y-class unit to be completed was
transferred from to the operational sub-
marine base at Guba Sayda on he Kola Peninsula in
late 1967. The second unit is believed to have been
delivered there last spring and the third in late
August or early September. One of the first two
units apparently returned to the launch basin at
in mid-May along with another Y-class
unit which probably had been outfitting.
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activity could be observed on the other unit, which
returned to the outfitting quay after spending about
two months in the launch basin. The first unit left
again in late August or early September.
16. It is not known why either of these units re-
turned to the launch basin, but difficulties of one
kind or another can be expected to plaque early units
in any new program.
17. Deployment of the Y-class probably will follow
past Soviet practice for ballistic-missile submarines.
A substantial increase in missile storage capacity at
Guba Sayda and Guba Litsa in the Soviet Northern Fleet
and at Petropavlovsk and Dunay in the Pacific Fleet
since 1965 suggests that Y-class submarines will be
deployed to these existing missile submarine bases.
Since most potential targets are in the Atlantic
area, about two-thirds of the force will probably
be deployed in the Northern Fleet.
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APPENDIX
History of the First Hulls
Unit 1
The first Y-class submarine
served for the first time in
of
moved out of
to be built was ob-
the
and was
It had been
construction hall sometime after
observed alongside the outfitting
quay.
, however, the submarine
was back at the outfitting quay with work under way
on the missile compartment.
Since unit 2
could not have completed outfitting by then (see be-
low), and ice at the entrance to remained
unbroken from early
the Y-class submarine observed at Guba Sayda on
must have been unit 1.
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Launchings and Deliyeries of Y-CIT
Submarines from
Through September 1968
UNIT WAY
Period of Launch
Period of Delivery
30-31 Dec Best Estimate
\
I
I
-,
MISSIONS
IE
i
?
I
E
i
1966
1967
1968
4?
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Unit 2
Circular hull sections being moved into
the construction hall at onl
are believed to have been for unit 2. Since the stern
section is the first to enter the hall, the stern for
this unit could have been in position on the assembly
way as early as
Some 16 months later,
almost certainly unit 2
basin on track A. This
fitting quay between
mained until at leas
a path was
suggesting
and transferred to Guba
on
was
unit
was
what is
in the launch
moved to the out-
Unit 3
where it re-
Between
cleared through the ice exiting
that unit 2 had been completed
Sayda.
tained between
of
was ob-
Poor-quality liQf showed two
submarines at the fitting-out quay
which were probably units of the Y class. Since
unit 1 apparently had already been transferred to
Guba Sayda, the two on the 27th probably
were units 2 and 3. If so, unit 3 must have been
launched between
A stern section probably for hull 3 was
bein moved into the construction hall inl
With a 16-month assembly period, the most likely
launch date for this unit would be September 1967.
Since unit 2 was launched from track A, unit 3 must
have come from track B. Unit 3 apparently left Sev-
erodvinsk for sea trials in early[ hit was
not transferred to Guba Sayda until Or
early
Unit 4
of
showed evidence of preparations for another launch-
ing: track A had been cleared of snow. I
later, hull sections for most of
a Y-class unit were seen being moved into the con-
struction hall, suggesting that another hull had
been moved forward on the building way subsequent
to a launching.
Two units were observed alongside the outfitting
quay on both but on the latter
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date one of the units was pointing away from the
launch basin, suggesting that it might be a new unit,
presumably number 4. had been
cleared through the ice exiting sug-
gesting that one of the
fitting quay on -probably unit 2--had left
the shipyard for Guba Sayda, Hence, unit 4 probably
was launched from track A between
units observed at the out-
outfitting.
Unit 5
5, had
quay on
from trac B. etween
was still
another submarine, probably unit
ined the two which were at the outfitting
This unit probably was launched
keel
blocks used to support a floating crane
just south of track B. A crane resting on these
blocks would partially obstruct track C, but could
properly service a submarine being launched from
Track B. As of this unit also was
still outfitting.
Units 6 and 7
another new submarine, probably
unit 6, was T_ Iwhile being launched from
track D. On , this unit was seen along-
side the outfitting quay, and another new unit, prob-
ably unit 7, was observed being launched from track C.
Construction Cycle
Except for the first unit, all Y-class submarines
built to date apparently have spent about 16 months
in the construction hall--eight months on each of two
building way positions--and another eight months out-
fitting.
It is not known how much time is spent on fabri-
cation of hull sections in the subassembly buildings
before the sections are moved into the main construc-
tion hall. Major movements in the construction pro-
cess apparently occur at eight-month intervals, how-
ever, so it is logical to assume that about eight
months are spent on fabrication of hull sections for
each Y-class before the sections are moved onto the
building ways for final assembly.
This construction cycle probably will hold true
for future units of the Y-class as well, The fold-
out chart, opposite, shows the estimated Y-class
production program at assuming continu-
ation of the current construction cycle,
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Estimated Production Schedule of Y-Class Submarines at
A
Sn
Assembly Position 1
Assembly Position 2
Outfitting Quay
Stern Section Observed A
Circular Hull Sections Observed
1
Unit 1
LEAD UNIT
Unit 61
14 1
?
181
221
261
301
341
381
Unit 7
11
15
111111111=1111111111
A
19
231
27
31
351
39
3'
A
13
A
17
21
25
29
33
1111111111111111.111 111111111111Milill111
37
Unit 2 I E?1111111112111111111
8
A
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
1964
1965
1966
1967 1968
1969 1970
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