(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R001300710001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: January 12, 2017
• Document Release Date: August 12, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 22, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

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Iq
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Middle East Situation Report #41
(As of 1100 EST, 22 February 1984)
LEBANON/SYRIA
25X1
Christian Lebanese
Forces militia leaders believe that the Christian community can
assure its political survival only by establishing confederated
system of Christian, Shia, and Druze cantons--each with its own
territorial army. The leaders envision the Christians living in
a truncated, more defensible enclave allied with and protected by
Israel. They feel confident Israel will use its influence to
overcome any Shia or Druze resistance to the idea, and the
leaders are prepared to trade Lebanese territory--Tripoli, the
Akkar region, and arts of the Vallev--for Syria ent
to the scheme. 25X1
-- We believe the Lebanese Forces leaders have unrealistic
expectations of Israeli support. Although Israeli
officials may see some benefit to the Christian
proposals, they probably will support a Christian canton
only to the extent that it does not jeopardize their ties
with the Shia and Druze communities and protects their
security interests on southern Lebanon. Moreover, Israel
will not support the proposals if they require major
military action to shore up the Gemayel government.
-- The Druze in the past have been interested in having
their own canton and may be amenable to the scheme. Shia
leaders, however, are suspicious of Christian intentions
and will raise objections because their community is
dispersed in areas under Syrian and Israeli control. The
Sunni community probably also would resist because they
stand to lose--territorially and politically--in the
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25X1
25X1
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IRAN-IRAQ WAR
Iraq claims to have halted Iranian attacks Tuesday night
along the northern and southern parts of the Doveyrich River
Front.
-- The Iranians may have recovered some occupied territory
but probably have not crossed the border. The current
series of attacks are a prelude to a larger offensive,
which will probably focus on Al Basrah and the Central
Front.
Baghdad has called on Washington to condemn Iranian
aggression and to pressure Iran to end the fighting. The Iraqi
Foreign Ministry warned our interests section today that Baghdad
will respond to the expected major Iranian offensive with all the
weapons at its disposal. The US Interests Section noted that the
warnings were the strongest Baghdad has issued in three years of
war and believes the Iraqis are nearing the end of their
patience. Iraq publicly warned Tuesday that "for every harmful
insect there is an insecticid "
-- We believe there is a good chance Iraq will attack
Iranian oil and civilian targets. We believe they also
will carry out their thinly veiled threat to use chemical
warfare on a large scale if the Iranians launch their 25X1
main attacks
2 25X1
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SUBJECT: Middle East Situation Report #41
(As of 1100 EST, 22 Feb 84)
DISTRIBUTION:
Cy 1
Cy 2
Cy 3
Cy 4
Cy 5
Cy 6
Cy 7
Cy 8
Cy 9
Cy 10,11,12,13
Cy 14
Cy 15
Cy 16
Cy 17
Cy 18
Cy 19,20
Cy 21
Cy 22,23,24
Cy 25
Cy 26,27
DDI/NESA/AI&PG
- DCI
- DDCI
- DCI/SA/IA
- DDI
- DDO/NE
- DDO/NE
- DDO/NE
- C/PES
- NIO/NESA
- CPAS/IMD/CB
- CPAS/PDB
- CPAS/WATCH OFFICE
- CPAS/ILS
- OGI/IIC/TAB
- D/NESA
- NESA/PPS
- NESA/AI
- NESA/AI/L
NESA/PG
NESA/PG/I
(22Feb84)
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/28: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300710001-1