(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00287R001101220001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: January 12, 2017
• Document Release Date: May 20, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 23, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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2 3 JAN *lyb4
MEMORANDUM FOR: (See Addressees List)
Chief, Strategic Resources Division
Office of Global Issues
SUBJECT: Kampuchea's 1983/84 Rice Crop
1. The attached memorandum assesses 1983/84 rice production prospects in
Kampuchea.
2. This assessment was produced by
Agricultural Assessments Branch, Strategic sources Division, ice ot
Global Issues.
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3. Comments and questions are welcane and ma be addressed to the Chief,
Agricultural Assessments Branch, 25X1
Attachment:
Kampuchea: 1983/84 Rice Crop Prospects
GI M 84-10017, January 1984
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SUBJECT: Kampuchea's 1983/84 Rice Crop
Mr. Allen H. Kitchens
Chief, INR/EAP
Department of State
Mr. F. Allen Harris
Director, Office of Crisis and Contingency Management
Bureau of Refugee Programs
Department of State
Mr. Terry Breese
Kampuchea Desk Officer
Bureau of East Asia Analysis
Department of State
Mr. Andy Aaronson
Foreign Agriculture Service
Department of Agriculture
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SUBJECT: Kampuchea's 1983/84 Rice Crop
OGI /SRD/AAB~
(23 January 1984) 25X1
Distribution: (Attachment with each copy)
1 - Each Addressee
1 - DIX)/*
I - OEA/SE/N
1 - C/ITC/CRES
3 - CPAS/ILS
1 - D/OGI
1 - DD/OGI
I - OGI/GD
1 - OGI/EXS/RG
1 - C/OGI/SRD
5 - C/OGI/SRD/AAB
8 - OGI/PS
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VYas uVon D C 20505
DIRECIORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
2 3 JAN' 1964
Kanpuchea: 1983/84 Rice Crop Prospects
Kampuchea's 1983/84 rice production could reach 1.9 million metric
tons. A crop of this size should meet minimum milled rice needs and should
not result in a significant change in refugee movements. By late December,
rainy season rice harvesting was proceeding several weeks behind schedule, but
barring climatic adversity in the coming months, we anticipate few problems
gathering in the crop and performing dry season operations.
This paper was prepared byl (Agricultural
Assessments Branch, Strategic Resources Division, Office of Global Issues
(AAB/SRD/OGI). Comments and questions may be addressed to the Chief,
AAB/SRD/OGI
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Kampuchea: 1983/84 Rice Crop Prospects
Introduction
We estimate that Kampuchea's 1983/84 rice production could reach
1.9 million metric tons, slightly less than the 1982/83 level. The current
rainy season rice crop has experienced a number of difficulties, including
late monsoon rains resulting in delayed sowing and transplanting and also
later flooding, that threaten to hold production close to 1.7 million tons,
below last year's announced output. Nevertheless, reports of an impending
disastrous rice shortfall seem exaggerated at this time. A rainy season rice
crop of 1.7 million tons is still considerably more than the poorer harvests
of the 1980/81 and 1981/82 seasons. Based on sowing targets and abundant
water supplies, this year's dry season rice crop could range from 216,000 to
246,500 tons, slightly more than last year's reported output of
216,000 tons. This crop is not yet completely planted, however, so actual
production may fall outside our estimated range.
Production of 1.9 million tons alone should not result in a significant
change in the movement of refugees to the Thai-Kampuchean border. Assuming a
Kampuchean population of 6.37 million, a rice crop of the size estimated
should meet minimum milled rice needs, based on the 12 kilogram per month FAD
minimum emergency ration.
Kampuchea grows many rice varieties, which means that sowing and
harvesting operations extend through most of the year. Rainy season rice,
accounts for about 90 percent of the crop and dry season rice makes up the
remainder. About 10 percent of the rainy season crop consists of floating
rice which is planted early along river banks and along the shores of the
1 Using a May 1981 census figure of 5,746,141 announced in the press, and
assuming a 3.5 percent annual growth rate, we estimate a population of
6.37 million under Phnom Penh's control.
2 Agreement is lacking in regard to the amount of milled rice required per
person per month. Clearly identifying it as a minimum emergency ration, the
FAO uses an individual rice requirement of 12 kilograms per month (about
395 grams per day), as the basis for its estimation of the Kampuchean annual
milled rice requirement of 917,280 tons. While such a ration will sustain
life, it is not sufficient for persons doing farm labor. An 18 kilogram
monthly ration, considered an ideal ration which supplies the caloric content
to support physical labor, would require 1,375,920 tons of milled rice. Phnom
Penh has stated that its basic ration requirment is 16 kilograms per month,
which would call for 1,223,040 tons of milled rice.
To calculate the amount of milled rice available from total rice
production, a 15 percent seed and loss factor is subtracted, and the remainder
is multiplied by a .63 milling factor. Using this formula, our estimated rice
crop of about 1.9 million tons would result in slightly over one million tons
of milled rice.
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Tonle Sap. This rice depends on seasonal floods from monsoon rainfall for
successful yields. The country's rainy season rice yields average 1.0 0
1.,2 tons per hectare and dry season rice yields are somewhat higher. 25X1
1983/84 Crop Season
The 1983/84 crop season began with dry weather last spring that delayed
sowing and reduced yields of the early and floating rice crops, according to
press and US embassy reports. Although eight provinces reported varying
degrees of dryness, the Kampuchean press admitted that only two of these--
Kandal and Takev--failed to achieve their rice sowing targets. Border
arrivals expressed fears of drought losses, and analysis of weather data
confirms that seasonal rainfall did not begin until mid-July, about a month
late. Press reports, even though discouraging, held out hope that much of the
rice crop could be saved by July rains.
Although the rains began late, the country received average or slightly
above average amounts during the monsoon season, and water levels of the
Mekong River and the Tonle Sap were restored. The continuation of the rains
thru mid-November, longer than usual, probably caused localized flood damage,
but, based on imagery evidence, did not result in losses as severe as some
reports imply. In December a number of such reports described the situation
as serious in some areas. Kampuchean and foreign press accounts portrayed
flood damage as a threat to rice production, and the US embassy in Bangkok
reported that severe flooding in the western part of the country, including
100,000 hectares of ricefields destroyed by a burst darn in Batdambang
Province, would lead to a rice shortfall. Refugees arriving at the Thai
border also echoed reports of severe flood damage, and a recent press article
stated that 150,000 hectares, or about a tenth of the rainy season rice area,
has been destroyed by flooding.
Sowing Campaign
Analysis of provincial and country-wide sowing progress reports in the
press shows that the sown area of rainy season rice compares favorably to that
of the last few years. Despite delays in the beginning of the season, farmers
gained momentum after the July onset of rains. By the end of November, press
reports indicated that about 1,614,400 hectares had been planted, exceeding
the plan for rainy season rice. Moreover, a comparison of monthly increments
to the sown area reveals that the season's sowing pace was on par with that of
last year when the rainy season rice crop covered 1.55 million hectares.
Significant failures to plant targeted areas did not occur, even in the
provinces which reportedly experienced drought. Only Kandal and Takev
achieved less than 95 percent of the sowing plan, a shortfall totalling only
about 17,700 hectares. Moreover, almost 4,000 hectares sown above plan in
other provinces helped to offset this deficit. Prey Veng did not report a
sowing plan, but did state that 20,000 hectares of rice had failed due to
drought conditions, against a sown area of 210,200 hectares.
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Imagery Survey
rice paddies. This situation is in marked contrast to the 1980/81 season
most provinces planted over 80 percen4
f their
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when ricefields accounted for just 50 percent of the imagery-sampled area,
thus showing the country's steady recovery from the disastrously small sown
area in 1979/80.
In most provinces over half of the ricefields surveyed on imagery were in
healthy condition. Of these about 15 percent showed lush, even growth, and
lodging, or flattening from the weight of the heads, which are indicators of
better-than-average yields. Most of the remaining paddies showed evidence of
minor problems or damage. Some showed signs of flood damage, especially those
in low-lying areas, but they were certainly not totally destroyed. Other
paddies in this category had excess moisture, but showed potential for
improvement during the dry season. Rice paddies in Karnpong Thum and Pouthisat
were more seriously flood damaged than those elsewhere, but these provinces
account for only 11 percent of the total sown area. Throughout the country
many other fields which exhibited sparse growth had probably been planted late
and could improve. Countrywide, only about five percent of the paddies showed
a high degree of damage or poor development.
Outlook
Barring climatic adversity in the caning months, we anticipate few
problems gathering in the rainy season rice crop and performing dry season
operations. By late December, rainy season rice harvesting was proceeding
3 Our estimate of the 1983/84 Kampuchean rainy season rice crop is based
on a statistically valid sample survey of imagery from 10 selected areas
within the country's main rice producing regions (Figure 1). The survey
involved placing computer-generated overlays, each having 100 random points,
on cloud-free imagery acquired in December 1983 and assigning the land at each
random point to one of the following landuse categories:
o Fallow or abandoned fields
o Flooded fields-crop not identifiable
o Other (harvested ricefields, plowed field-no crop planted,
and field crops other than rice)
o Active rice paddies, then categorized as healthy or
unhealthy/damaged
o Nonagricultural land.
The total number of fields in each agricultural category was used to derive
the percentages shown in Table 2. 25X1
4 We did not conduct an imagery assessment of 1982/83 or 1981/B2 Kampuchean
rice production. 25X1
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several weeks behind schedule, due to the late planting of some of the crop.
A small but varying percentage of the sown area fails to he harvested each
year.' This could cause current rainy season rice production to fall below the
estimated 1.7 million tons. The lagging harvest will probably also result in
delays in sowing and transplanting the dry season rice, with a consequent
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smaller-than-planned area and some small yield reductions.
With the sowing of dry season rice far from completion, its contribution
to total production cannot he assessed fully. Though planting delays should
hold total area below the 155,000-hectare plan, we estimate that last year's
135,000-hectare harvested area will be matched or exceeded. We expect that
yields will range between 1.6 and 1.7 tons per hectare, similar to performance
during the last two years. Monsoon rainfall during 1983 did result in
adequate flood levels which should provide enough moisture for the dry season
crop. We therefore estimate that dry season rice production could range ?ran
216,000 tons fran an area of 135,000 hectares to as high as 246,500 tons from
145,000 hectares.
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Kampuchea's Rice Crcpsa
1979/80
1980/81
1981/82
1982/83
1983/94
Rainy Season Rice
Planned area (thousand hectares)
--
1,500
1,700
1,600
1,600
Harvested area (thousand hectares)
--
1,232
1,300
1,545
1,614 (sown)
(% of plan)
--
82%
76%
97%
101.8%
Yield (metric tons/hectare)
--
1.19
1.0
1.16
1.05
Production (thousand metric tons)
--
1,466
1,300
1,788
1,700
Dry Season Rice
Planned area (thousand hectares)
--
123
150
165
155
Harvested area (thousand hectares)
--
88
149
135
135-145
(% of plan)
--
72%
99.6%
82%
97-94%
Yield (metric tons/hectare)
--
1.30
1.7
1.6
1.6-1.7
Production (thousand metric tons)
--
115
256
216
216-247
Total Rice
Harvested area (thousand hectares)
771
1,320
1,449
1,680
1,749-1,759
Production (thousand metric tons)
565
1,581
1,556
2,004
1,916-1,946
a Harvested area, yields, and production for 1980/81 are FAO estimates, and the same data
for 1983/84 are CIA estimates. All other data are from the Kampuchean press. The 1983 rainy
season rice area estimate is that which was sown, and has not yet been harvested; since some
amount of the sown area fails to be harvested each year, this figure represents the upper
limit of the expected harvested area. Area and production numbers have been rounded.
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Kampuchea's 1993 Rainy Season Rice Crop
Imagery Sample? Data
CIA Est.
Sown
CIA Est.
Reported Active Rice
Fallow or
'c
Province
Production
(mt)
Area (ha)
(d) of Total)a
Yield
(mt/ha)
Weather Paddies (a)
Conditionsa (Healthy%)h
Flooded
(e)
Abandoned
(di)
Other
($)
13atdanbang
284,700
284,700
(18)
1.0
good rainfall, 92 (51)
later flooding
0
4
4
Prey Veng
231,200
210,200
(13)
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varied 81 (67)
4
7
8
Siemreah-Otdar
Meanchey
179,300
163,000
(10)
1.1
varied 83 (64)
3
14
0
Kam{x)ng Chan
205,400
158,000
(10)
1.3
spring drought 63 (87)
0
2R
9
Takev
135,000
135,000
(8)
1.0
varied 90 (58)
4
3
3
Svay Rieng
130,000
130,000
(8)
1.0
good rainfall 90 (61 )
1
9
0
Kampong Thum
93,600
117,000
(7)
.8
good rainfall 87 (16)
1
9
3
Kampot
115,800
46,500
(6)
1.2
spring draught 62 (69)
0
14
24
Kampong Spoe
75,000
75,000
(5)
1.0
spring drought - --
-
-
-
Pouthisat
51,200
56,900
(4)
.9
varied 86 (49)
0
12
2
Kandal
52,300
52,300
(3)
1.0
varied 70 (63)
19
8
3
Kampor
g Chhnang
48,500
48,500
(3)
1.0
good rainfall 43 (88)
35
22
0
~
Other-
97,600
87,400
(5)
1.1
good rainfall - -
-
Total
1,700,000
1,614,400
(100)
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b The first number gives the percentage of active rice paddies to the total number of fields sampled.
Includes Kaoh Kong, Kracheh, Mondol Kiri. Preah Vihear, Rotanokiri, Stoenq Treng, and Phnom Penh and
Kampong Saar municipalities.
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Or,
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Imagery Sample Areas Within the Major Rice Producing Area
v ~ ~Pou~his ~(
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