(UNTITLED)

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Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP97-00770R000100560001-1
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RIPPUB
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K
Document Page Count: 
15
Document Creation Date: 
January 12, 2017
Document Release Date: 
May 9, 2011
Sequence Number: 
1
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Publication Date: 
September 26, 1986
Content Type: 
REPORT
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/09: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00560001 -1 Directorate of Intelligence Economic & Energy Indicators 26 September 1986 DI EEI 86-020 26 September 1986 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/09: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00560001 -1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/09: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100560001-1 This publication is prepared for the use of US Government officials, and the format, coverage, and content are designed to meet their specific requirements. US Government officials may obtain additional copies of this document directly or through liaison channels from the Central Intelligence Agency. 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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/09: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100560001-1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/09: CIA-RDP97-00770R000100560001-1 Energy Economic & Energy Indicators Industrial Production Gross National Product Consumer Prices Money Supply Unemployment Rate Foreign Trade Current Account Balance Export Prices in US $ Import Prices in US $ Exchange Rate Trends Money Market Rates Agricultural Prices Industrial Materials Prices Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports Crude Oil Prices World Crude Oil Production, Excluding Natural Gas Liquids 8 I Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/09: CIA-RDP97-00770R000100560001-1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/09: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00560001 -1 United States Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Italy Canada Percent change from previous period seasonally adjusted at an annual rate 0.5 -10.0 5.3 8.8 3.1 -3.0 -14.5 48.9 11.7 7.1 89.8 Percent change from previous period seasonally adjusted at an annual rate Year 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr Ist Qtr 2nd Qtr United States Japan West Germany France United Kingdom 3.8 -0.4 0.7 4.4 0.7 Italy Canada Percent change from previous period seasonally adjusted at an annual rate 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr Jul Aug United States Japan 4.9 2.6 1.8 2.3 2.0 0 -0.8 West Germany France Italy 19.3 16.4 14.9 10.6 8.6 6.2 5.0 3.6 7.6 Canada 12.5 10.8 5.8 4.3 4.0 4.7 3.0 7.9 5.4 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/09: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00560001 -1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/09: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00560001 -1 Money Supply, M-1 a Percent change from previous period seasonally adjusted at an annual rate 7.1 6.6 11.2 7.0 9.1 7.9 16.8 15.8 18.1 22.9 Japan 3.7 7.1 3.7 2.8 5.0 7.7 9.4 7.5 6.5 13.0 West Germany 1.1 3.6 10.2 3.3 4.4 9.8 11.3 21.3 -0.4 France 12.2 13.9 8.7 20.4 1.9 16.4 United Kingdom NA NA 13.0 14.7 16.7 9.2 33.0 14.7 14.0 27.3 Italy 11.2 11.6 15.1 12.3 13.7 8.6 Canada 3.8 0.7 10.2 3.2 4.1 -13.4 -1.9 28.7 41.6 -3.3 Based on amounts in national currency units. b Including MI-A and M1-B. Unemployment Rate a United States 7.5 9.6 9.4 7.4 7.1 7.0 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.7 Japan 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.9 West Germany 5.6 7.7 9.2 9.1 9.3 10.2 8.6 8.4 8.6 8.5 France 7.6 8.4 8.6 9.7 10.0 9.8 10.1 10.2 10.2 10.3 United Kingdom 10.0 11.6 10.7 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.7 11.7 Italy 8.4 9.1 9.9 10.4 10.7 11.5 Canada 7.5 11.1 11.9 11.3 10.5 a Prior to May 1986, unemployment rates for France were estimated. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/09: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00560001 -1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/09: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00560001 -1 Foreign Trade a 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 United States b Exports 233.5 212.3 200.7 217.6 213.3 Imports 261.0 244.0 258.0 325.7 345.3 Balance -27.5 -31.6 -57.4 -108.1 -132.0 Japan Exports 149.6 138.2 145.4 168.1 173.9 Imports 129.5 119.6 114.0 124.1 118.0 Balance 20.1 18.6 31.4 44.0 55.9 West Germany Exports 175.4 176.4 169.5 171.9 184.2 Imports 163.4 155.3 152.9 153.1 158.9 Balance 11.9 21.1 16.6 18.8 25.3 France Exports 106.3 96.4 95.1 97.5 101.9 Imports 115.6 110.5 101.0 100.3 104.5 Balance -9.3 -14.0 -5.9 -2.8 -2.6 United Kingdom Exports 102.5 97.1 92.0 93.7 100.9 Imports 94.6 93.1 93.3 99.4 103.5 Balance 7.9 4.0 -1.3 -5.7 -2.6 Italy Exports 75.4 73.9 72.8 73.4 78.8 Imports 91.2 86.7 80.6 84.4 90.8 Balance -15.9 -12.8 -7.9 -10.9 -12.0 Canada Exports 70.5 68.5 73.7 86.5 88.0 Imports 64.4 54.1 59.3 70.6 75.7 Balance 6.1 14.4 14.4 15.9 12.3 a Seasonally adjusted. b Imports are customs values. Imports are c.i.f. Current Account Balance a 1986 47.7 51.3 29.9 29.0 17.8 22.3 55.1 60.9 45.0 47.6 10.1 13.3 30.4 29.8 30.3 30.9 0.1 -1.1 26.2 26.8 28.4 29.2 -2.1 -2.4 23.3 24.5 26.3 24.3 -2.9 0.2 21.9 21.3 20.3 19.2 1.6 2.1 17.6 16.9 17.7 9.2 10.1 9.8 8.4 6.9 7 9 17.6 21.4 . 21.2 14.4 16.0 16.0 3.2 5.4 5 3 9.7 10.1 . 10.8 10.0 10.3 10.6 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 8.9 8.8 9.0 10.0 9.7 9.9 -1.1 -0.9 -0 9 8.1 8.2 . 8.6 8.0 8.1 9.0 0.1 0.1 -0 4 7.2 6.7 . 7.0 6.4 6.4 7.2 0.7 0.3 -0.2 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr May Jun Jul United States 6.3 -8.1 -46.6 -106.5 -117.7 -34.0 -34.7 6.9 8.3 2.7 1.9 2 7 1.1 0.3 . a Seasonally adjusted; converted to US dollars at current market rates of exchange. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/09: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00560001 -1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/09: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00560001 -1 Export Prices in US $ United States 9.2 1.5 1.0 1.4 -0.7 5.5 -6.4 -2.4 0.2 -0.6 t Germany W 14 . 9 -28 -3.2 -7.1 0 es ce F -12.0 -5.5 -4.8 -2.9 2.5 ran ited Kingdom U n It l a y Canada Import Prices in US $ Japan West Germany -2.4 -5.0 -2.8 -4.3 -8.6 -4.7 -5.2 -4.8 -1.5 Percent change from previous period at an annual rate 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr Jun Jul -0.5 1.5 9.2 7.8 26.1 24.9 -3.5 _43.8 40.7 16.6 -2.4 48.8 33.2 Percent change from previous period at an annual rate 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr Jun Jul -7.2 -10.4 0 8_7 -5.3 -49.2 -2.2 39.0 9.8 -11.6 -24.1 6_7 2.4 -18.2 -8.2 -20.6 -11.6 3.8 -21.3 14.4 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/09: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00560001 -1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/09: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00560001 -1 Exchange Rate Trends Percent change from previous period at an annual rate 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr May Jun Jul Aug United States 10.5 10.6 5.8 9.1 6.3 -17.8 -11.3 -13.7 21.7 --17.2 Japan 9.3 -5_7 10.4 6.2 6.8 26.8 42.4 81.8 18.4 113.6 West Germany -2.1 7.0 5.8 1.0 1.7 8.5 6.0 11.3 6.5 17.0 -5.1 -6.1 -4.7 -2.1 2.7 5.8 -10.4 -3.1 7.4 2.2 2.5 -2.1 -5.0 -2.5 2.0 -26.0 9.5 11.8 3.7 -21.5 -9.2 -5.1 -1.6 -3.1 -3.8 5.5 5.2 9.3 11.7 15.1 0.3 0.2 2.3 -2.3 -3.6 -13.1 1.7 6.2 7.6 2.9 Japan 2.7 -12.9 4.6 0 -0.3 32.2 33.5 42.8 -2.2 48.3 27.5 West Germany -24.6 -7.2 -5.2 -11.5 -3.3 31.3 17.1 19.5 -1.0 35.5 40.0 France -28.7 -20.8 -15.9 -14.7 -2.7 - 29.7 4.4 15.7 -2.8 27.7 28.1 Italy -32.8 -18.8 -12.3 -15.6 -8.6 30.1 14.5 18.8 -2.0 35.2 37.9 -2.5 -2.9 0.1 -5.1 -5.4 -6.9 5.7 6.4 -13.1 6.8 -0.9 I st Qtr 2nd Qtr Apr May Jun United States 90-day certificates of deposit, secondary market 16.24 12.49 9.23 10.56 8.16 7.68 6.77 6.67 6.75 6.88 Japan loans and discounts (2 months) 7.79 7.23 NA 6.66 6.52 6.38 5.98 6.12 5.98 5.82 West Germany interbank loans (3 months) 12.19 8.82 5.78 5.96 5.40 4.51 4.52 4.47 4.55 4.55 France interbank money market (3 months) 15.47 14.68 12.51 11.74 9.97 8.96 7.41 7.55 7.27 7.41 United Kingdom sterling interbank loans (3 months) 13.85 12.24 10.12 9.91 12.21 12.26 10.09 10.41 10.14 9.72 Italy Milan interbank loans (3 months) 20.13 20.15 18.16 15.91 14.95 16.00 12.71 13.66 12.50 11.97 Canada finance paper (3 months) 18.46 14.48 9.53 11.30 9.71 11.08 9.03 9.52 8.78 8.80 Eurodollars 3-month deposits 16.87 13.25 9.69 10.86 8.41 7.91 7.00 6.95 6.99 7.07 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/09: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00560001 -1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/09: CIA-RDP97-00770R000100560001-1 Agricultural Prices Bananas Fresh imported, $ per metric ton) (Total world 214.0 217.0 232.0 243.0 110.3 109.8 108.5 108.9 NA , Beef (4 per pound) Australia (Boneless beef, US Ports) b f o 112.4 107.4 111.1 101.0 96.6 97.6 91.3 90.0 91.5 . . . United States (Wholesale steer beef, midwest markets) 100.0 101.4 97.6 100.9 90.7 87.8 84.4 89.6 90.3 Cocoa (4 per pound) 89.8 74.3 92.1 106.2 98.7 95.7 82.6 87.6 89_1 Coffee ($ per pound) 1.28 1.40 1.32 1.44 1.43 2.01 1.73 1.49 1.47 Corn (US #3 yellow, $ per metric ton) Rotterdam i f c 150 123 148 150 125 116 116 98 87 , . . . Cotton (World Cotton Prices, "A" f. Osaka, US 4/lb.) i index c 72.69 74.48 85.71 63.91 57.87 53.60 45.51 36.35 37.03 . , . Palm Oil (United Kingdom 5% bulk, $ per metric ton) f c i 571 445 502 730 501 289 241 221 195 ., . . US (No. 2, milled, Rotterdam) i f 4% c 632 481 514 514 484 453 352 288 NA . . . Thai SWR (100% grade B Rotterdam) i f c 573 362 339 310 249 236 224 230 NA . . . Soybeans (US #2 yellow, $ per metric ton) Rotterdam c i f 288 244 282 283 225 218 213 203 198 , . . . Soybean Oil (Dutch, f.o.b. ex-mill, $ per metric ton) 507 447 527 727 571 407 348 336 273 Soybean Meal (US, c.i.f. Rotterdam $ per metric ton) 252 219 238 197 157 188 184 183 185 Sugar (World raw cane, f.o.b. spot prices 4 per pound) Caribbean Ports 16.93 8.42 8.49 5.18 4.04 5.83 7.45 5.58 5.50 , Tea Average Auction (London) (4 per pound) 91.0 89.9 105.2 156.6 90.0 86.4 85.6 79.8 86.5 Wheat (US #2. DNS $ per metric ton) Rotterdam i f c 210 187 183 182 169 172 158 129 124 , . . . 88 78 86 92 81 95 94 83 81 The food index is compiled by The Economist for 14 food commodities which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by 3- year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/09: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00560001 -1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/09: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00560001 -1 Industrial Materials Prices 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr Jul Aug Major US producer 77.3 76.0 77.7 81.0 81.0 81.0 81.0 81 0 81 0 LME cash 57.4 44.9 65.1 56.8 47.2 51.4 53.1 . 50.7 . 51 0 Chrome Ore (South Africa chemical grade, $ per metric ton) 50.0 50.0 43.9 40.0 40.0 40.0 . 40.0 Copper a (bar, 0 per pound) 79.0 67.1 72.0 62.4 64.5 64.5 64.5 60.6 59 1 Gold ($ per troy ounce) 460.0 375.5 424.4 360.0 317.2 342.6 341.6 348.4 . 365 4 Lead a (0 per pound) 32.9 24.7 19.3 20.0 17.7 16.7 17.6 17.0 . 17 5 Manganese Ore (48% Mn, $ per long ton) 73.3 69.8 68.4 67.2 64.8 64.8 . 65.6 Nickel ($ per pound) 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3 2 2.1 2.2 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.8 . 1 8 Platinum ($ per troy ounce) . Major producer 475.0 475.0 475.0 475.0 475.0 475.0 475.0 475 0 475 0 Metals week, New York dealers' price 446.0 326.7 422.6 358.2 291.0 383.1 420.1 . 438.0 . 495.7 Synthetic b 47.5 45.7 44.0 44.4 44.1 42.8 38.7 38 3 NA Natural C 56.8 45.4 56.2 49.6 42.0 41.7 40.1 . 43 6 43 5 Silver ($ per troy ounce) 11.4 8.1 6.1 5.9 5.2 . 5 0 . 5 1 Steel Scrap d ($ per long ton) 92.0 63.1 73.2 86.4 74.4 74.0 71.8 . 71 8 . 75 0 Tina (Q per pound) 641.4 581.6 590.9 556.6 543.2 357.4 250.5 . 244 0 . 245 5 Tungsten Ore (contained metal, $ per metric ton) 18,097 13,426 10,177 10,243 10,656 8,673 7,567 . 7,112 . 6,360 US Steel NA (finished steel, composite, $ per long ton) 590.2 611.6 617.8 551.2 554.4 556.6 556.6 34.7 41.5 35.4 28.5 33.8 36 5 36 5 Lumber Index (1980=100) 95 84 114 105 103 100 121 . 111 . NA Industrial Materials Index r (1980=100) 85 71 82 76 69 69 70 67 67 a Approximates world market price frequently used by major world producers and traders, although only small quantities of these metals are actually traded on the LME. As of February 1986 tin prices from the Penang market. b S-type styrene, US export price. Quoted on New York market. d Average of No. I heavy melting steel scrap and No. 2 bundles delivered to consumers at Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Chicago. e This index is compiled by using the average of 10 types of lumber whose prices are regarded as bellwethers of US lumber construction costs. rThe industrial materials index is compiled by The Economist for 18 raw materials which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by 3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/09: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00560001 -1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/09: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00560001 -1 World Crude Oil Production Excluding Natural Gas Liquids 81 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 a 19 1st Qtr May June July World 55,837 53,092 52,625 53,674 52,931 54,039 Non-Communist countries 41,602 38,810 38,228 39,257 38,692 39,758 ed countries Develo 12,886 13,276 13,864 14,302 14,730 15,022 p United States 8,572 8,658 8,680 8,735 8,933 8,898 8,848 8,808 8,800 Canada 1,285 1,270 1,356 1,411 1,457 1,480 United Kingdom 1,811 2,094 2,299 2,535 2,533 2,711 2,538 2,196 Norway 501 518 614 700 785 856 826 848 Other 717 736 915 921 1,022 1,077 927 915 Non-OPEC LDCs 6,036 6,633 6,823 7,515 7,845 7,556 7,998 7,964 Mexico 2,321 2,746 2,666 2,746 2,733 2,376 2,527 2,547 2,500 t E 598 665 689 827 874 758 845 753 gyp Other 3,117 3,222 3,468 3,942 4,238 4,422 4,626 4,664 OPEC 22,680 18,901 17,541 17,440 16,117 17,180 18,000 19,300 20,320 eria Al 803 701 699 638 645 602 600 600 600 g Ecuador 211 211 236 253 280 275 300 300 285 Gabon 151 154 157 152 153 160 160 170 170 Indonesia 1,604 1,324 1,385 1,466 1,235 1,223 1,305 1,235 1,250 Iran 1,381 2,282 2,492 2,187 2,258 1,890 2,100 2,200 2,300 993 Ira 972 922 1,203 1,437 1,732 1,700 1,700 1,900 q Kuwait b 947 663 881 912 862 1,169 1,400 1,500 1,600 a 1,137 Lib 1,183 1,076 1,073 1,069 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,150 y Neutral Zone 370 317 390 410 355 276 220 300 340 eria 1,445 Ni 1,298 1,241 1,393 1,464 1,417 1,550 1,490 1,600 g Qatar 405 328 295 399 302 352 360 430 400 Saudi Arabia b 9,625 6,327 4,867 4,444 3,290 4,256 4,250 5,100 5,600 UAE 1,500 1,248 1,119 1,097 1,146 1,287 1,405 1,505 1,505 Venezuela 2,108 1,893 1,781 1,813 1,621 1,541 1,550 1,570 1,620 Communist countries 14,235 14,282 14,397 14,417 14,239 14,281 USSR 11,800 11,830 11,864 11,728 11,350 11,350 China 2,024 2,042 2,121 2,280 2,496 2,506 2,557 2,557 Other 411 410 412 409 393 425 a Preliminary. b Excluding Neutral Zone production, which is shown separately. Production is shared equally between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/09: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00560001 -1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/09: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00560001 -1 Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul United States 16,058 15,296 15,184 15,708 15,726 15,923 16,056 16,188 15,743 15,85 115,998 16,309 Japan 4,444 4,204 4,193 4,349 4,123 4,661 5,002 4,547 3,924 3,568 3,577 West Germany 2,120 2,024 2,009 2,012 2,060 2,096 2,406 2,141 2,640 2,388 2,473 France 1,744 1,632 1,594 1,531 1,493 1,626 2,009 1,525 1,702 1,245 1,284 United Kingdom 1,325 1,345 1,290 1,624 1,402 1,286 1,483 1,447 1,427 1,330 Italy b 1,705 1,618 1,594 1,513 1,516 1,718 1,855 1,535 1,495 1,345 1,506 Canada 1,617 1,454 1,354 1,348 1,259 1,261 1,280 1,109 1,239 1,325 a Including bunkers, refinery fuel, and losses. b Principal products only prior to 1981. Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul United States 4,406 3,488 3,329 3,426 3,201 3,329 2,993 3,000 3,701 3,872 4,675 4,291 Japan 3,919 3,657 3,567 3,664 3,377 3,126 4,273 3,673 3,469 2,756 2,798 West Germany 1,591 1,451 1,307 1,335 1,284 1,321 1,253 1,429 1,285 1,340 1,263 France 1,804 1,596 1,429 1,395 1,476 1,430 1,420 1,380 1,608 1,235 1,454 United Kingdom 736 565 456 482 523 493 445 494 610 767 442 Italy 1,816 1,710 1,532 1,507 1,462 Canada 521 334 247 244 283 353 424 260 185 276 I Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/09: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00560001 -1 la Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/09: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00560001 -1 OPEC Average a (Official Sales Price) World Average Price 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 30.87 34.50 33.63 29.31 28.70 28.14 NA NA NA NA NA 27.16 20.55 13.65 11.42 12.33 F.o.b. prices set by the government for direct sales and, in most cases, for the producing company buy-back oil. Weighted by the volume of production. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/09: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00560001 -1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/09: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00560001 -1 Average Crude Oil Sales Price" l 24.8 1 20.32 6.53 14.03 14.06 12.87 12.33 1.42 M ^~ V : G ry N n 34.5 0 33.63 30.87 29.31 2 171 70 I-7 --I -7.16 The 1973 price is derived from posted prices. 1974-84 price, are derived From OPI'.C official sales prices. and heginning in 1985. prices are a measure of tt erage world sales prices. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/09: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00560001 -1 STAT Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/09: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00560001 -1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/09: CIA-RDP97-0077OR0001 00560001 -1