(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP97-00770R000100470001-1
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: January 12, 2017
• Document Release Date: May 11, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 15, 1986
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2011/05/11 : CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100470001-1
Directorate of
Intelligence
Economic & Energy
Indicators
15 August 1986
DI EEI 86-017
15 August 1986
Approved For Release 2011/05/11 : CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100470001-1
 Approved For Release 2011/05/11: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100470001-1
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Approved For Release 2011/05/11 : CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100470001-1
 Approved For Release 2011/05/11 : CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100470001-1
Economic & Energy
Indicators
Industrial Production
Gross National Product
Consumer Prices
Money Supply
Unemployment Rate
Foreign Trade
Current Account Balance
Export Prices in US $
Import Prices in US $
Exchange Rate Trends
Money Market Rates
Agricultural Prices
Industrial Materials Prices
World Crude Oil Production, Excluding Natural Gas Liquids 8
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption 9
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports 9
Crude Oil Prices 10
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United States
Japan
2.6 -7.2 5.9 11.6 2.3
1.0
-2.3
-2.6
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
-3.2 0.3 2.4 4.8
-3.9 2.1 3.9 1.3 4.7
-1.6 -3.1 -3.2 3.3 1.2
0.5 -10.0 5.3 8.8 4.3
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
Year
3rd Qtr
4th Qtr 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr
United States
2.5
-2.1
3.6
6.4
2.7
4.1
2.1 3.8 1.1
Japan
4.1
3.1
3.3
5.0
4.5
2.7
5.8 -2.1
West Germany
France
0.2
1.8
0.7
1.5
1.3
3.7
2.1
United Kingdom
-1.4
1.9
3.4
2.6
3.3
-1.1
1.8 2.9
Italy
0.2
-0.5
-0.2
2.8
2.3
1.0
2.3 5.3
Canada
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
1st Qtr
2nd Qtr Jun Jul
United States
10.3
6.2
3.2
4.3
3.5
1.4
-1.7 5.7
Japan
4.9
2.6
1.8
2.3
2.0
0
-0.8 0.6
West Germany
6.0
5.3
3.3
2.4
2.2
-0.9
-1.1 0.4 -2.6
France
13.3
12.0
9.5
7.7
5.8
0.8
1.6 5.0
United Kingdom
11.9
8.6
4.6
5.0
6.1
4.5
0.3 1.1
Italy
19.3
16.4
14.9
10.6
8.6
6.2
5.0 6.5 3.6
Canada
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
1st Qtr
Apr
May
Jun
0.5
8.0
-4.7
-5.6
-0.3
72.6
2.8
-3
-
--
3.4
6.8
-15.2
11.7
16.4
-55.3
-0.9
4.6
-21.9
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Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
Japan 3.7 7.1
3.7
2.8
5.0
7.7 9.2
9.1
West Germany 1.1 3.6
10.2
3 3
4.4
9.8 1.9
-5.8
21.3
France 12.2 13.9
8.7
17.0 -17.0
-3.1
United Kingdom NA NA
13.0
14.7
16.7
9.1 31.6
64.7
14.7
Italy 11.2 11.6
15.1
12.3
13.7
8.9 11.9
Canada 3.8 0.7
10.2
3.2
4.1
-13.3 -14.0
9.9
28.7
a Based on amounts in national currency units.
b Including MI-A and MI-B.
1st Qtr
2nd Qtr
May
Jun
Jul
United States 7.5 9.6
9.4
7.4
7.1
7.0
7.1
7.2
7.0
6.8
Japan 2.2 2.4
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.7
West Germany 5.6 7.7
9.2
9.1
9.3
10.2
8.6
8.5
8.4
8.6
France 7.6 8.4
8.6
9.6
10.0
9.9
10.0
10.0
10.1
10.2
United Kingdom 10.0 11.6
12.4
12.4
12.9
11.5
11.6
11.6
11.7
Italy 8.4 9.1
9.9
10.4
10.7
11.5
Canada 7.5 11.1
11.9
11.3
10.5
9.7
9.6
9.6
9.5
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United States b
Exports
233.5
212.3
200.7
217.6
213.3
Imports
261.0
244.0
258.0
325.7
345.3
92.9
32.0
28.8
30.3
31.8
Balance
-27.5
-31.6
-57.4
-108.1
-132.0
Japan
Exports
149.6
138.2
145.4
168.1
173.9
47.8
15.8
16.7
17.6
16.8
Imports
129.5
119.6
114.0
124.1
118.0
30.0
9.4
9.7
9.1
10.2
Balance
20.1
18.6
31.4
44.0
55.9
17.8
6.4
7.0
8.5
6.7
West Germany
Exports
175.4
176.4
169.5
171.9
184.3
55.0
17.3
21.9
17.5
21.1
Imports
163.4
155.3
152.9
153.1
158.9
45.0
14.2
17.2
14.4
15.9
Balance
11.9
21.1
16.6
18.8
25.3
10.1
3.1
4.7
3.1
5.2
France
Exports
106.3
96.4
95.1
97.5
101.9
30.4
9.9
9.9
9.7
10.1
Imports
115.6
110.5
101.0
100.3
104.5
30.3
10.2
10.6
10.0
10.3
Balance
-9.3
-14.0
-5.9
-2.8
-2.6
0.1
-0.4
-0.7
-0.3
-0.2
United Kingdom
Exports
102.5
97.1
92.1
93.6
100.9
26.2
8.4
9.1
8.9
8.8
Imports
94.6
93.1
93.7
99.3
103.5
28.3
10.2
9.5
9.9
9.7
Balance
7.9
4.0
-1.6
-5.7
-2.5
-2.0
-1.8
-0.4
-1.0
-0.9
Italy
Exports
75.4
73.9
72.8
73.4
78.8
23.3
7.6
8.2
8.1
8.2
Imports
91.2
86.7
80.6
84.4
90.8
25.7
8.4
8.2
7.9
7.9
Balance
-15.9
-12.8
-7.9
-10.9
-11.9
-2.4
-0.8
0
0.2
0.3
Canada
Exports
70.5
68.5
73.7
86.5
88.0
21.6
6.7
7.4
7.0
Imports
64.4
54.1
59.3
70.6
75.7
19.8
5.8
6.6
6.4
Balance
6.1
14.4
14.4
15.9
12.3
1.8
1.0
0.8
0.6
a Seasonally adjusted.
b Imports are customs values.
Imports are c.i.f.
United States
6.3
-8.1
-46.6
-106.5
-117.7
Japan
4.8
6.9
20.8
35.0
49.2
- --
West Germany
-6.8
3.3
4.3
6.7
13.8
France
-4.7
-12.1
-4.9
-0.8
0.9
United Kingdom
15.3
8.5
4.7
1.9
5.0
Italy
-8.6
-5.7
0.6
-2.9
Canada
-5.0
2.1
2.4
2.6
-0.4
a Seasonally adjusted; converted to US dollars at current market
rates of exchange.
1st Qtr
-33.7
12.7
6.8
7.9
7.7
7.6
6.9
2.1
3.6
2.7
1.9
1.0
0.7
-2.1
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1st Qtr
Apr
May
Jun
United States
9.2
1.5
1.0
1.4
-0.7
0.6
2.4
2.1
Japan
5.5
-6.4
-2.4
0.2
-0.6
26.1
48.1
12.9
West Germany
-14.9
-2.8
-3.2
-7.1
0
40.8
0.2
20.4
-2.3
France
-12.0
-5.5
-4.8
-2.9
2.5
33.6
United Kingdom
NA
NA
-6.2
-5.1
2.3
-2.6
6.0
9.1
-1.7
Italy
-7.8
3.0
-4.4
-5.2
-0.3
25.9
-17.3
26.3
Canada
3.9
-2.0
0.2
-0.4
-3.5
-15.0
-19.1
-2.5
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
United States
5.3
-2.0
-3.7
1.7
-2.4
Japan
3.6
-7.4
-5.0
-2.8
-4.3
West Germany
-8.6
-4.7
-5.2
-4.8
-1.5
France
-7.8
-7.2
-7.0
-3.8
-0.3
United Kingdom
NA
NA
-5.7
-4.5
0.5
Italy
1.0
5.3
-6.6
-3.7
-1.0
Canada
8.7
-1.1
0.6
1.0
-2.1
1st Qtr
Apr
May
Jun
-5.3
-59.0
-54.3
10.1
-22.9
-7.9
-24.1
9.4
0.5
-3.6
3.9
-18.2
10.7
-19.8
-19.2
0.2
21.1
-2.6
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Exchange Rate Trends
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
Trade-Weighted
United States
10.5
10.6
5.8
9.1
6.3
-17.8
-4.5 -13.7
West Germany
-2.1
7.0
5.8
1.0
1.7 _
8.5
2.7 11.3
France
-5.1
-6.1
-4.7
-2.1
2.7
5.8
-31.1 -3.1
United Kingdom
2.5
-2.1
-5.0
-2.5
2.0
-26.0
38.0 11.8
Italy
-9.2
-5.1
-1.6
-3.1
-3.8
5.5
-0.1 9.3
Dollar Cost of Foreign Currency
Japan
2.7
-12.9
4.6
0
-0.3
32.2
22.8 42.8
-2.2
45.8
West Germany
-24.6
-7.2
-5.2
-11.5
-3.3
31.3
3.7 - 19.5
-1.0
32.5
France
-28.7
-20.8
-15.9
-14.7
-2.7
29.7
-39.1 15.7
--2.8
25.6
United Kingdom
-13.2
-13.4
-13.3
-11.9
-3.0
1.7
28.7 19.3
-7.7
- 1.4
Italy
-32.8
-18.8
-12.3
-15.6
-8.6
30.1 -_
-4.7 18.8
-2.0
32.1
Canada
-2.5
-2.9
0.1
-5.1
-5.4
-6.9
13.1 6.4
-13.1
7.6
Money Market Rates
1st Qtr
2nd Qtr Apr
May
Jun
United States
90-day certificates of
deposit, secondary market
Japan
loans and discounts
(2 months)
7.79
7.23
NA
6.66
6.52
6.38
5.98 6.12
5.98
5.82
West Germany
interbank loans
(3 months)
France
interbank money market
(3 months)
United Kingdom
sterling interbank loans
(3 months)
Italy
Milan interbank loans
(3 months)
finance paper (3 months)
Eurodollars
3-month deposits
16.87
13.25
9.69
10.86
8.41
7.91
7.00 6.95
6.99
7.07
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Bananas
Fresh imported,
(Total world, $ per metric ton)
Beef (Q per pound)
Australia
(Boneless beef,
f.o.b. US Ports)
1st Qtr 2nd Qtr May Jun
109.8 NA 109.2 NA
United States
(Wholesale steer beef,
midwest markets)
Cocoa (v` per pound)
89.8
74.3
92.1
106.2
98.7
Coffee ($ per pound)
1.28
1.40
1.32
1.44
1.43
Corn
150
123
148
150
125
(US #3 yellow,
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
Cotton
(World Cotton Prices, "A"
index, c.i.f. Osaka, US /-lb.)
Palm Oil
(United Kingdom 5% bulk,
c.i.f., $ per metric ton)
Rice ($ per metric ton)
US (No. 2, milled,
4`%% c.i.f. Rotterdam)
Thai SWR
(100% grade B
c.i.f. Rotterdam)
Soybeans
(US #2 yellow,
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
Soybean Oil
(Dutch, f.o.b. ex-mill,
$ per metric ton)
Soybean Meal
(US, c.i.f. Rotterdam
$ per metric ton)
Sugar
(World raw cane, f.o.b.
Caribbean Ports, spot prices o per pound)
'Tea
Average Auction (London)
(C per pound)
Wheat
(US #2. DNS
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
Food Index -(1980 =I 00)
The food index is compiled by The Economist for 14 food commodities which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by 3-
year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
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Aluminum (? per pound)
Major US producer
77.3
76.0
77.7
81.0
81.0
81.0
81.0
81.0
81.0
LME cash
57.4
44.9
65.1
56.8
47.2
51.4
53.1
52.8
53.7
Chrome Ore
53.0
50.9
50.0
50.0
43.9
40.0
40.0
40.0
40.0
(South Africa chemical
grade, $ per metric ton)
Copper a (bar, ? per pound)
79.0
67.1
72.0
62.4
64.5
64.5
64.5
64.4
64.1
Gold ($ per troy ounce)
460.0
375.5
424.4
360.0
317.2
342.6
341.6
342.6
342.5
Lead a (? per pound)
Manganese Ore
(48% Mn, $ per long ton)
Nickel ($ per pound)
Cathode major producer
3.5
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
LME Cash
2.7
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.2
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.9
Platinum ($ per troy ounce)
Major producer
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
Metals week,
446.0
326.7
422.6
358.2
291.0
383.1
420.1
412.0
432.3
New York dealers' price
Rubber (Q per pound)
Synthetic b
47.5
45.7
44.0
44.4
44.1
42.8
NA
39.7
NA
Natural
42.0
41.7
40.1
40.1
41.0
Silver ($ per troy ounce)
10.5
7.9
11.4
8.1
6.1
5.9
5.2
5.1
5.2
Steel Scrap d ($ per long ton)
NA
71.5
NA
Tin a (? per pound)
250.5
249.3
244.2
Tungsten Ore
(contained metal,
$ per metric ton)
(finished steel, composite,
$ per long ton)
Zinc a (0 per pound)
38.4
33.7
34.7
41.5
35.4
28.5
32.7
31.9
36.5
Lumber Index,
95
84
(1980=100)
Industrial Materials Index f
85
71
(1980=100)
a Approximates world market price frequently used by major world
producers and traders, although only small quantities of these
metals are actually traded on the LME. As of February 1986 tin
prices from the Penang market.
b S-type styrene, US export price.
Quoted on New York market.
d Average of No. I heavy melting steel scrap and No. 2 bundles
delivered to consumers at Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Chicago.
e This index is compiled by using the average of 10 types of lumber
whose prices are regarded as bellwethers of US lumber construction
costs.
f The industrial materials index is compiled by The Economist for
18 raw materials which enter international trade. Commodities are
weighted by 3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized
countries.
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World Crude Oil Production
Excluding Natural Gas Liquids
1981
1982
World
55,837
53,092
Non-Communist countries
41,602
38,810
Developed countries
12,886
13,276
United States
8,572
8,658
Canada
1,285
1,270
United Kingdom
1,811
2,094
Norway
501
518
Other
717
736
Non-OPEC LDCs
6,036
6,633
Mexico
2,321
2,746
Egypt
598
665
Other
3,117
3,222
OPEC
22,680
18,901
Algeria
803
701
Ecuador
Gabon
151
154
Indonesia
1,604
1,324
Iran
1,381
2,282
Iraq
993
972
Kuwait b
947
663
Libya
1,137
1,183
Neutral Zone
370
317
Nigeria
1,445
1,298
Qatar
405
328
Saudi Arabia b
9,625
6,327
UAE
1,500
1,248
Venezuela
2,108
1,893
Communist countries
14,235
14,282
USSR
11,800
11,830
China
2,024
2,042
Other
411
410
1983
52,625
38,228
13,864
8,680
1,356
2,299
614
915
6,823
2,666
689
3,468
17,541
699
157
1,385
2,492
922
881
1,076
390
1,241
295
4,867
1,119
1,781
14,397
11,864
2,121
412
Preliminary.
b Excluding Neutral Zone production, which is shown separately.
C Production is shared equally between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
1984
1985-
19868
1st Qtr
Feb
Mar
Apr
53,674
52,931
54,029
54,684
53,683
53,520
39,257
38,692
39,758
40,423
39,417
39,181
14,302
14,730
15,022
15,070
14,872
13,949
8,735
8,933
8,898
8,934
8,821
8,791
1,411
1,457
1,480
1,480
1,480
1,300
2,535
2,533
2,711
2,699
2,699
2,554
700
785
856
870
860
319
921
1,022
1,077
1,087
1,012
985
7,515
7,845
7,556
7,393
7,605
7,712
2,746
2,733
2,376
2,400
2,219
2,358
827
874
758
600
800
760
3,942
4,238
4,422
4,393
4,586
4,594
17,440
16,117
17,180
17,960
16,940
17,520
638
645
602
550
600
600
152
153
160
160
160
160
1,466
1,235
1,223
1,300
1,175
1,215
2,187
2,258
1,890
2,200
1,800
2,000
1,203
1,437
1,732
1,880
1,650
1,500
912
862
1,169
1,100
1,400
1,400
1,073
1,069
1,000
1,000
900
900
410
355
276
300
230
240
1,393
1,464
1,417
1,400
1,550
1,650
399
302
352
300
350
180
4,444
3,290
4,256
4,600
4,000
4,600
1,097
1,146
1,287
1,400
1,305
1,255
1,813
1,621
1,541
1,550
1,520
1,520
14,417
14,239
14,271
14,261
14,266
14,339
11,728
11,350
11,350
11,350
11,350
11,390
2,280
2,496
2,496
2,496
2,496
2,496
409
393
425
415
420
453
Approved For Release 2011/05/11: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100470001-1
 Approved For Release 2011/05/11 : CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100470001-1
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption
United States
16,058
15,296
15,184
15,708
15,697
Japan
4,444
4,204
4,193
4,349
4,121
West Germany
2,120
2,024
2,009
2,012
2,060
France
1,744
1,632
1,594
1,531
1,493
United Kingdom
1,325
1,345
1,290
1,624
1,402
Italy n
Canada
1,705
1,618
1,594
1,513
1,516
Including bunkers, refinery fuel, and losses.
Principal products only prior to 1981.
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
15,923
16,056
16,188
15,743
15,852
16,150
4,661
5,005
4,532
3,949
2,096
2,406
2,141
2,640
1,626
2,009
1,525
1,679
1,222
1,286
1,483
1,447
1,416
1,718
1,855
1,535
1,495
2,106
1,506
United States
3,701
3,872
4,508
Japan
3,673
West Germany
1,591
1,451
1,307
1,335
1,284
1,321
1,258
1,429
1,285
1,404
1,263
France
1,804
1,596
1,429
1,395
1,476
1,430
1,420
United Kingdom
Italy
1,816
1,710
1,532
1,507
1,462
Canada
521
334
247
244
283
353
423
Approved For Release 2011/05/11 : CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100470001-1
 _..I I I
Approved For Release 2011/05/11: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100470001-1
OPEC Average a
(Official Sales Price)
a F.o.b. prices set by the government for direct sales and, in most cases, for the producing company buy-back oil. Weighted by the volume
of production.
Approved For Release 2011/05/11: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100470001-1
 Average Crude Oil Sales Prices
11.29 11.02 11.77 12.88 12.93
3.39
Approved For Release 2011/05/11 : CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100470001-1
The 1973 price is derived from posted prices. 1974-84 prices
are derived from OPEC official sales prices. and beginning
in 1985. prices are a measure of average world sales prices.
Approved For Release 2011/05/11 : CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100470001-1
 Approved For Release 2011/05/11: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100470001-1
Approved For Release 2011/05/11 : CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100470001-1