(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP97-00770R000100350001-4
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: January 12, 2017
• Document Release Date: May 16, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: June 20, 1986
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100350001-4
d'~EN Directorate of
Intelligence
Economic & Energy
Indicators
DI EEI 86-013
20 June 1986
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100350001-4
 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100350001-4
This publication is prepared for the use of US Government
officials, and the format, coverage, and content are designed to
meet their specific requirements. US Government officials may
obtain additional copies of this document directly or through
liaison channels from the Central Intelligence Agency.
Requesters outside the US Government may obtain subscriptions to
CIA publications similar to this one by addressing inquiries to:
Document Expediting (DOCEX) Project
Exchange and Gift Division
Library of Congress
Washington, D.C. 20540
or: National Technical Information Service
5285 Port Royal Road
Springfield, VA 22161
Requesters outside the US Government not interested in subscription
service may purchase specific publications either in paper copy or
microform from:
Photoduplication Service
Library of Congress
Washington, D.C. 20540
or: National Technical Information Service
5285 Port Royal Road
Springfield, VA 22161
(To expedite service call the
NTIS Order Desk [phone]
Comments and queries on this paper may be directed to the DOCEX
Project at the above address or by phone [phone]), or the
NTIS Office of Customer Services at the above address or by phone
(703-487-4660). Publications are not available to the public from the
Central Intelligence Agency.
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100350001-4
 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100350001-4
Economic & Energy
Indicators
Energy
Industrial Production
Gross National Product
Consumer Prices
Money Supply
Unemployment Rate
Foreign Trade
Current Account Balance
Export Prices in US $
Import Prices in US $
Exchange Rate Trends
Money Market Rates
Agricultural Prices
Industrial Materials Prices
World Crude Oil Production, Excluding Natural Gas Liquids 8
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption 9
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports 9
Crude Oil Prices 10
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100350001-4
 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100350001-4
0.5 -10.0 5.3 8.8 4.3 -0.1 -22.5
-1.5 1.1 2.5 0.5 -4.9 0
2.1 3.9 1.3 4.6 1.9 -1.1
-3.1 -3.2 3.3 1.2 9.9 12.8 1.2
Year 2d Qtr 3d Qtr 4th Qtr 1st Qtr
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
3.1 3.3 5.0 4.6 5.8 3.0 7.2
Italy
Canada
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
1.9 3.4 2.6 3.3 6.8 -0.7 2.2
1st Qtr Mar Apr May
4.3 3.5 1.4 -5.0 -3.3
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
1st Qtr Mar Apr May
2.3 0.5 -10.9 5.9 -7.4
4.9 2.6 1.8 2.3 2.0 0 -6.3 0.3 -2.6
I Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100350001-4
 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100350001-4
Money Supply, M-1 a
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
1st Qtr Mar
Apr
May
United States b 7.1 6.6
11.2
7.0
9.1
7.9 14.8
15.5
25.4
Japan 3.7 7.1
3.7
2.8
5.0
7.8 12.9
9.5
West Germany 1.1 3.6
10.2
3.3
4.4
9.8 44.9_
1.9
France 12.2 13.9
8.6
United Kingdom NA NA
13.0
14.7
16.7
9.0 34.8
30.5
Italy
Canada 3.8 0.7
10.2
3.2
4.1
-13.4 10.8
-11.8
3.0
Based on amounts in national currency units.
b Including MI-A and MI-B.
1986
Year
4th Qtr
1st Qtr
Mar
Apr
May
United States 7.5 9.6
9.4
7.4
7.1
6.9
7 0
7.1
7.0
7.2
Japan 2.2 2.4
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.8
2.6
_2.7
2.9
West Germany 5.6 7.7
9.2
9.1
9.3
9.0
10.2
9.8
9.0
8.5
France 7.6 8.4
8.6
9.6
10.0
10.0
9.8
9.8
9.9
9.9
United Kingdom 10.0 11.6
12.4
12.4
12.9
12.9
13.1
13.2
13.2
13.3
Italy 8.4 9.1
9.9
10.4
10.7
11.0
11.5
Canada 7.5 11.1
11.9
11.3
10.5
10.2
9.7
9.6
9.6
9.6
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100350001-4
 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100350001-4
Year
4th Qtr
Exports
233.5
212.3
200.7
217.6
213.3
52.4
Imports
261.0
244.0
258.0
325.7
345.3
89.2
Balance
-27.5
-31.6
-57.4
-108.1
-132.0
-36.8
Japan
Exports
149.6
138.2
145.4
168.1
173.9
47.3
Imports
129.5
119.6
114.0
124.1
118.0
30.3
Balance
20.1
18.6
31.4
44.0
55.9
16.9
West Germany
Exports
175.4
176.4
169.5
171.9
184.3
51.2
Imports
163.4
155.3
152.9
153.1
158.9
43.8
Balance
11.9
21.1
16.6
18.8
25.3
7.4
France
Exports
106.3
96.4
95.1
97.5
101.9
28.8
Imports
115.6
110.5
101.0
100.3
104.5
29.2
Balance
-9.3
-14.0
-5.9
-2.8
2.6
-0.4
United Kingdom
Exports
102.5
97.1
92.1
93.6
100.9
27.3
Imports
94.6
93.1
93.7
99.3
103.5
27.6
Balance
7.9
4.0
-1.6
-5.7
-2.5
-0.3
Italy
Exports
75.4
73.9
72.8
73.5
78.8
22.5
Imports
91.2
86.7
80.6
84.4
90.7
26.0
Balance
-15.9
-12.8
-7.9
-10.9
-11.9
-3.5
Canada
Exports
70.5
68.5
73.7
86.5
88.0
22.5
Imports
64.4
54.1
59.3
70.6
75.7
19.6
Balance
6.1
14.4
14.4
15.9
12.3
2.9
Seasonally adjusted.
b Imports are customs values.
Imports are c.i.f.
United States
6.3
-8.1
-46.0
-107.4
-117.7
-36.6
Japan
4.8
6.9
20.8
35.0
49.2
16.0
West Germany
-6.8
3.3
4.3
6.7
France
-4.7
-12.1
-4.9
-0.8
0.9
1.0
Canada
-5.0
2.1
1.4
1.9
-1.9
-0.9
Seasonally adjusted; converted to US dollars at current market
rates of exchange.
Jan
Feb
mar
Apr
32.0
28.9
32.0
28.8
16.3
15.9
15.7
16.7
10.4
10.4
9.3
9.9
5.9
5.5
6.4
6.8
18.9
19.1
17.2
21.9
15.3
15.6
14.1
17.1
3.5
3.5
3.1
4.7
10.2
10.3
9.9
9.9
9.7
10.3
10.2
10.6
0.5
0
-0.4
-0.7
9.0
8.8
8.4
9.1
8.8
9.3
10.2
9.3
0.2
-0.5
-1.8
-0.3
7.2
8.5
7.7
8.2
8.8
9.2
8.5
8.2
-1.6
-0.7
-0.8
0
7.7
7.1
6.7
7.4
7.0
7.0
5.8
6.6
0.7
0.1
0.9
0.8
1.9
3.9
6.9
7.9
I Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100350001-4
 Il ! ..I . I
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100350001-4
Export Prices in US $
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
United States
9.2
1.5
1.0
1.4
-0.7
-0.3
-11.4 7.3 -2.9
Japan
5.5
-6.4
-2.4
0.2
-0.6
24.2
111.0 -5.7
West Germany
-14.9
-2.8
-3.2
-7.1
0
31.8
60.5 32.7 0.1
France
-12.0
-5.5
-4.8
-2.9
2.5
35.1
34.8
United Kingdom
NA
NA
-6.2
-5.1
2.3
-11.3
-16.0 26.4 6.0
Italy
-7.8
-3.0
-4.4
-5.2
-0.3
Canada
3.9
-2.0
0.2
-0.4
-3.5
-30.7
14.6 -11.1 24.6
Import Prices in US $
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
United States
5.3
-2.0
-3.7
1.7
-2.4
-10.3
-8.7
-29.9
-7.2
Japan
3.6
-7.4
-5.0
-2.8
-4.3
16.5
46.8
-66.7
West Germany
-8.6
-4.7
-5.2
-4.8
-1.5
-0.5
13.3
-2.6
-24.4
France
-7.8
-7.2
-7.0
-3.8
-0.3
-2.4
18.9
United Kingdom
NA
NA
-5.7
-4.5
0.5
-13.6
-2.0
26.2
-3.6
Italy
1.0
-5.3
-6.6
-3.7
-1.0
Canada
8.7
-1.1
0.6
1.0
-2.1
4.0
7.6
2.1
16.2
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100350001-4
 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100350001-4
Exchange Rate Trends
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
United States
10.5
10.6
5.8
9.1
6.3
-31.8
-20.3
2.5
-2.1
-5.0
-2.5
2.0
-36.3
2.5
-9.2
-5.1
-1.6
-3.1
-3.8
8.6
4.2
0.3
0.2
2.3
-2.3
-3.6
-8.9
-5.6
Dollar Cost of Foreign Currency
Japan
-7.2
-5.2
-11.5
-3.3
41.0
26.1
-28.7
-20.8
-15.9
-14.7
-2.7
41.0
23.7
-39.1
15
7
-13.2
-13.4
-13.3
-11.9
-3.0
-0.3
.
-32.8
-18.8
-12.3
-15.6
-8.6
40.9
Money Market Rates
Year
4th Qtr
Jan
Feb
Mar
United States
90-day certificates of
deposit, secondary market
8.16
7.93
7.95
NA
NA
Japan
loans and discounts
(2 months)
West Germany
interbank loans
(3 months)
France
interbank money market
(3 months)
United Kingdom
sterling interbank loans
(3 months)
13.85
12.24
10.12
9.91
12.21
11.60
12.05
NA
NA
Italy
Milan interbank loans
(3 months)
20.13
20.15
18.16
15.91
14.95
14.52
14.79
NA
NA
Canada
finance paper (3 months)
18.46
14.48
9.53
11.30
9.71
9.10
NA
NA
NA
Eurodollars
3-month deposits
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100350001-4
 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100350001-4
Agricultural Prices
1st Qtr
Mar
Apr
May
Bananas
214.0
217.0
232.0
243.0
110.3
109.8
110.7
106.8
NA
Fresh imported,
t
)
t
i
ld
on
r
c
, $ per me
(Total wor
d
)
Beef (e per poun
Australia
112.4
107.4
111.1
101.0
96.6
97.6
96.6
93.5
91.2
(Boneless beef,
S P
orts)
f.o.b. U
United States
100.0
101.4
97.6
100.9
90.7
87.8
84.2
83.4
85.8
(Wholesale steer beef,
t markets)
id
wes
m
Cocoa (c per pound)
89.8
74.3
92.1
106.2
98.7
95.7
91.0
84.9
NA
1.28
1.40
1.32
1,44
1.43
2.01
2.04 _
1.92
1.79
Corn
150
123
148
150
125
116
113
113
117
(US 43 yellow,
Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
i
f
c
.
.
.
Cotton
72.69
74.48
85.71
63.91
57.87
53.60
54.00
49.28
46.58
(World Cotton Prices, "A"
US
k
lb
)
a,
c/
.
index, c.i.f. Osa
Palm Oil
571
445
502
730
501
289
243
242
237
(United Kingdom 5% bulk,
c.i.f., $ per metric ton)
Rice ($ per metric ton)
US (No. 2, milled,
632
481
514
514
484
453
455
440
323
Rotterdam)
i
f
4'7 c
.
.
.
Thai SWR
573
362
339
310
249
236
232
225
221
(100`7r grade B
t
d
R
i
f
er
am)
ot
c.
.
.
Soybeans
288
244
282
283
225
218
218
213
215
(US #2 yellow,
ic ton)
t
S
d
r
per me
am,
c.i.f. Rotter
Soybean Oil
507
447
527
727
571
407
369
349
343
(Dutch, f.o.b. ex-mill,
Soybean Meal
252
219
238
197
157
188
193
187
184
(US, c.i.f. Rotterdam
Sugar
16.93
8.42
8.49
5.18
4.04
5.83
7.07
8.36
7.64
(World raw cane, f.o.b.
rices c per pound)
ts
s
ot
P
ibb
C
,
p
p
or
ean
ar
Tea
91.0
89.9
105.2
156.6
90.0
86.4
91.5
91.3
NA
Average Auction (London)
(c per pound)
Wheat
210
187
183
182
169
172
166
172
163
(US #2. DNS
S per metric ton)
Rotterdam
i
f
c
,
.
.
.
Food Index (1980=100)
88
78
86
92
81
95
97
98
95
The food index is compiled by The Economist for 14 food commodities which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by 3-
year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100350001-4
 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100350001-4
Chrome Ore
(South Africa chemical
grade, $ per metric ton)
Manganese Ore
(48% Mn, $ per long ton)
82.1
79.9
Major producer
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
Metals week,
New York dealers' price
446.0
326.7
422.6
358.2
291.0
383.1
413.0
416.0
412.0
Silver ($ per troy ounce)
10.5
7.9
11.4
8.1
6.1
5.9
5.7
5.2
5.1
Steel Scrap d ($ per long ton)
92.0
63.1
73.2
86.4
74.4
74.0
73.7
73.0
NA
Tin a(? per pound)
641.4
581.6
590.9
556.6
543.2
357.4
329.2
257.9
249.3
Tungsten Ore
(contained metal,
$ per metric ton)
18,097
13,426
10,177
10,243
10,656
8,673
8,309
7,752
7,474
US Steel
(finished steel, composite,
$ per long ton)
Lumber Index
(1980= 100)
Industrial Materials Index t 85 71
(1980=100)
a Approximates world market price frequently used by major world
producers and traders, although only small quantities of these
metals are actually traded on the LME. As of February 1986 tin
prices from the Penang market.
b S-type styrene, US export price.
Quoted on New York market.
d Average of No. I heavy melting steel scrap and No. 2 bundles
delivered to consumers at Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Chicago.
e This index is compiled by using the average of 10 types of lumber
whose prices are regarded as bellwethers of US lumber construction
costs.
rThe industrial materials index is compiled by The Economist for
18 raw materials which enter international trade. Commodities are
weighted by 3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized
countries.
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100350001-4
 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100350001-4
World Crude Oil Production
Excluding Natural Gas Liquids
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985-
1986-
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
World
55,837
53,092
52,633
53,691
53,356
53,757
54,709
53,693
Non-Communist countries
41,602
38.810
38,228
39,257
38,692
39,471
40,423
39,407
Developed countries
12,886
13,276
13,864
14,302
14,730
15,083
15,070
14,872
United States
8,933
8,942
8,934
8,821
8,791
Canada
United Kingdom
2,734
2,699
2,699
839
870
860
Other
717
736
915
921
1,022
1,088
1,087
1,012
Non-OPEC LDCs
6,036
6,633
6,823
7,515
7,845
7,678
7,393
7,605
2,321
2,746
2,666
2,746
2,733
2,510
_ _
2,400
2,219
2,358
Egypt
Other
OPEC
22,680
18,901
17,541
17,440
16,117
16,710
17,960
16,930
17,520
Algeria
Ecuador
Gabon
1,604
1,324
1,385
1,466
1,235
1,200
1,300
1,175
1,215
1,381
2,282
2,492
2,187
2,258
1,700
2,200
1,800
2,000
Kuwait b
947
663
881
912
862
1,000
1,400
1,400
1,137
1,183
1,076
1,073
1,069
1,100
1,000
900
900
Neutral Zone
370
317
390
410
355
300
300
230
240
Nigeria
1,445
1,298
1,241
1,393
1,464
1,300
1,400
1,550
1,650
Qatar
405
328
295
399
302
400
300
350
180
Saudi Arabia b
9,625
6,327
4,867
4,444
3,290
4,200
4,600
4,000_
4,600
UAE
1,500
1,248
1,119
1,097
1,146
1,165
_
1,400
1,305
1,255
Venezuela
2,108
1,893
1,781
1,813
1,621
1,555
1,550
1,520
1,520
Communist countries
14,286
14,286
14,286
USSR
11,864
11,728
11,749
11,350
11,350 _
11,350
China
2,121
2,286
2,496
2,496
2,496
2,496
Other
? Preliminary.
b Excluding Neutral Zone production, which is shown separately.
Production is shared equally between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100350001-4
 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100350001-4
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption
France 1,744 1,632 1,594 .1 ,531 1,493 1,310 1,569 1,626 2,009 1,525 1,706
---
United ---------------------
Kingdom 1,325 1,345 1,290 1,624 1,402 1,236 1,298 1,286 1,485
Italy b 1,705 1,618 1,594 1,513 1,516 1,436 1,6 - 42 1,718 1,855 1,535 1,495
Canada 1,617 1,454 1,354 1,348 1,344 1,360 1,402 1,346 1,374 1,183
Including bunkers, refinery fuel, and losses.
Principal products only prior to 1981.
apan 4,444 4,204 4,193 4,349 4,121 3,839 4,361 4,661 5,046
West Germany 2,120 2,024 2,009 2,012 2,060 2,233 1,993 2,096 2,406 2,141
----------------------
1986
Year 3d--Qtr- 4th Qtr Jan Feb--- Mar Apr
United States 16,058 15,296 15,184 15,708 15,697 15,557 15,748 15,923 16,056 --16,188--
- 15,833
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports
United States 4,406 3,488 3,329 3,402 3,216
mted Kingdom 736 565 456 482 523
4th Qtr Jan Feb Mar Apr
3,662 3,329 2,993 3,000 3,701
Japan 3,919 3,657 3,567 3,664 3,377 3,619 3,126 4,273
West Germany 1,591 1,451 1,307 1,335 1,284 1,210 1,321 1,225
,France----- 1,804 1,596 1,429 1,395 1,476 1,590 1,430 1,420 1,380
--- --------
I Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100350001-4
 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100350001-4
OPEC Average a 30.87 34.50 33.63 29.31 28.70 28.14 28.15 28.09 28.09 28.06
(Official Sales Price)
World Average Price NA NA NA NA NA 27.16 27.36 20.67 16.87 15.05
a F.o.b. prices set by the government for direct sales and, in most cases, for the producing company buy-back oil. Weighted by the volume
of production.
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100350001-4
 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-00770R000100350001-4
OPEC: Average Crude Oil Sales Price
I Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-00770R000100350001-4
 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100350001-4
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100350001-4