(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP97-00770R000100310001-8
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: January 12, 2017
• Document Release Date: May 16, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 23, 1986
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100310001-8
Directorate of
Intelligence
Economic & Energy
Indicators
DI EE/ 86-011
23 May 1986
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100310001-8
 I . .I ..
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100310001-8
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Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100310001-8
 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100310001-8
Economic & Energy
Indicators
Economic Industrial Production
Gross National Product
Consumer Prices
Money Supply
Unemployment R ate
Foreign Trade
Current Account Balance
Energy
Export Prices in US $
Import Prices in US $
Exchange Rate Trends
Money Market Rates
Agricultural Prices
Industrial Materials Prices
World Crude Oil Production, Excluding Natural Gas Liquids 8
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption 9
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports 9
Crude Oil Prices 10
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 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100310001-8
Percent change Iron, previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
United States
2.6
7.2
5.9
11.6
2.3
Jan
2.9
Feb Mar Apr
-9.1 -7.4 1.9
.Japan
West Germany
France
1.0
-2.3
-2.6
0.4
-3.2
-1.5
3.5
0.3
1.1
11.1
2.4
2.5
4.7
5.0
0.5
-6.7
23.4
-8.7
1.0 6.7
-3.4
19.9 0.0
United Kingdom
Italy
3.9
-1.6
2.1
3.1
3.9
-3.2
1.3
3.3
4.6
1.2
8.1
20.7
15.4 -1.1
39.3 11.5
Canada
0.5
-10.0
5.3
8.8
4.4
-0.8
8.2
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
Year
2d Qtr
3d Qtr 4th Qtr 1st Qtr
United States
2.5-
_2.1
3.5
6.5
2.2
1.1
3.0 0.7 3.2
Japan
4.1
3.1
3.3
5.0
4.6
5.8
3.0 7.2
West Germany
0.2
-1.0
1.5
3.0
2.4
6.8
6.8 0.2
France
1.5
1.3
3.1
3.7 2.1
United Kingdom
-1.4
1.9
3.3
2.6
3.3
6.4
--0.7 2.2
Italy
0.2
-0.5
1.0 2.3
Canada
7.0 5.4
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
United States
10.3
6.2
3.2
4.3
3.5
4.3
1st Qtr
1.4
Mar
-5.0
Apr
Japan
4.9
2.6
1.8
2.3
2.0
2.1
0.0
6.2
1.1
West Germany
6.0
5.3
3.3
2.4
2.2
1.0
0.9
1.1
-1.6
France
13.3
12.0
9.5
7.7
5.8
3.2
0.7
0.9
United Kingdom
11.9
8.6
4.6
5.0
6.1
3.2
4.6
1.0
1.0
Italy
19.3
16.4
14.9
10.6
8.6
6.9
6.2
5.3
3
3
Canada
4.8
3.0
.
2.4
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 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100310001-8
Money Supply, M-1,,
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
Year
4th Qtr
Ist Qtr
Mar
Apr
F'nited States
7.1
6.6
11.2
7.0
9.1
11.1
7.9
14.8
15.5
Japan
3.7
7.1
3 7
2.8
5.0
4.3
7.8
11.6
West Germane
1.1
3.6
10.2
3.3
4.4
15.5
9.7
43.3
I ranee
12.2
13.9
10.0
7.8
8.6
10.4
knifed Kingdom
yA
NA
13.0
14.7
16.7
25.1
9.0
34.8
30.5
Italy
11.2
11.6
15.1
12.3
13.7
21.5
Canada
3.8
0.7
10.2
3.3
4.1
13.5
-2.8
3.8
-11.0
Based on amounts in national currency units.
Including MI-A and MI-B.
Unemployment Rate
Year
4th Qtr
Ist Qtr
Mar
Apr
United States
7.5
9.6
9.4
7.4
7.1
6.9
7.0
7.1
7.0
Japan
2.2
2.4
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.8
2.6
2.7
West Germany
5.6
7.7
9.2
9.1
9.3
9.1--
9.1
9.2
9.1
France
7.6
8.4
8.6
9.6
9.9
9.7-
10.3
10.5
10.5
United Kingdom
10.0
11.6
12.4
12.4
12.9
12.9
13.0
13.1
13.2
Italy
8.4
9.1
9.9
10.4
10.7
11.0
11.5
Canada
7.5
11.1
11.9
11.3
10.5
10.2
9.7
9.6
9.6
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 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100310001-8
United States b
Exports 233.5
Imports 261.0
Balance -27.5
212.3
244.0
-31.6
200.7
258.3
--57.6
217.6
326.2
-108.5
213.3
345.9
-132.6
52.6
85.5
-32.9
52.4
91.7
-39.3
30.9
31.0
31.0
Japan
Exports 149.6
Imports 129.5
Balance 20.1
138.2
119.6
18.6
145.4
114.1
31.4
168.1
124.1
44.0
173.9
118.0
55.9
43.6
29.3
14.3
_
47.3
30.3
16
9
16.3
10.4
5
9
15.9
10.5
5
4
15.6
9.3
4
6
West Germany
Exports 175.4
Imports c 163.4
Balance 11.9
France
Exports 106.3
Imports 115.6
Balance -9.3
176.4
155.3
21.1
96.4
110.5
-14.0
169.5
152.9
16.6
95.1
101.0
-5.9
171.8
153.1
18.8
97.5
100.3
-2.8
184.3
159.0
25.3
101.9
104.5
-2.6
48.7
41.7
6.9
26.2
27.0
-0.8
.
51.3
43.9
7.4
28.8
29.2
-0.4
.
18.7
15.2
3.6
10.2
9.7
0.5
.
18.7
15.4
3.3
10.3
10.3
0
,
17.5
14.3
32
9.9
102
0
4
United Kingdom
Exports 102.5
Imports 94.6
Balance 7.9
97.1
93.1
4.0
92.1
93.7
-1.6
93.6
99.3
-5.7
100.9
103.5
-2.5
25.8
26.4
-0.6
27.3
27.6
-0.3
8.9
8.7
0
2
8.8
9.3
0
5
.
8.4
10 .I
1
7
Italy
Exports 75.4
Imports 91.2
Balance -15.9
73.9
86.7
-12.8
72.8
80.6
-7.8
73.5
84.4
-10.9
78.8
90.7
-11.9
20.3
21.4
-1.0
22.5
26.0
-3.4
.
7.2
8.8
1.6
.
8.5
9.3
0
7
.
7.7
8.7
1
0
Canada
Exports 70.5
Imports 64.4
Balance 6.1
68.5
54.1
14.4
73.7
59.3
14.4
86.5
70.6
15.9
88.0
75.7
12.3
21.8
19.6
2.2
22.5
19.6
2.9
7.7
7.0
0.7
.
7 I
7.0
0 I
.
6.7
c'. 8
0.9
Seasonally adjusted.
b Imports are customs values.
Imports are c.i.f.
United States 6.3
-8.1
-46.0
-107.4
-1 17.7
-29.3
--36.6
Japan 4.8
6.9
20.8
35.0
49.2
13.1
16.0
3.9
9
6
4.3
6.7
13.8
2.0
7.4
3.0
.
2
1
4.9
-0.8
0.6
0
0.8
.
United Kingdom
8.5
4.5
1.3
4.0
1.5
1.3
-8.6
-5.7
0.6
3.2
-5.0
Seasonally adjusted; converted to US dollars at current market
rates of exchange.
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 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100310001-8
Export Prices in US $
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
United States
9.2
1.5
1.0
1.4
Japan
5.5
-6.4
-2.4
0.2
West Germany
-14.9
-2.8
-3.2
-7.1
France
12.0
-5.5
4.8
2.9
United Kingdom
NA
NA
-6.2
-5.1
Italy
-7.8
--3.0
-4.4
-5.2
Canada
3.9
-2.0
0.2
-0.4
Import Prices in US $
Year
4th Qtr
Jan
Feb
Mar
-0.6
-2.0
0.0
-11.4
7.9
0.6
38.6
24.2
-111.0
0
44.6
31.9
60.6
32.7
2.5
30.8
2.3
13.8
-11.3
16.0
26.4
-0.3
34.8
-3.5
-6.0
-32.3
21.3
1.9
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
United States
-2.4
2.9
-9.7
-6.8
31.5
Japan
3.6
-7.4
West Germany
-8.6
-4.7
-5.2
-4.8
-1.5
26.9
-0.9
15.2
6.9
France
United Kingdom
-4.5
0.5
8.3
-13.6
-2.0
26.2
Italy
1.0
-5.3
-6.6
-3.7
-1.0
-24.2-
Canada
8.7
-1.1
0.6
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Percent changeIrntn previous period
at an annual rate
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Trade-Weighted
United States
10.5
10.6
5.8
9.1
6.3
16.0
31.8
-20.3
Japan
9.3-
-
-5.7
1
-
6.2
6.8
-5.0
106.4
26.2
West Germany
-2.1
7.0
5.8
1.0
1.7
6.5
9.3
4.0
France
-5.1
-6.1
-4.7
-2.1
2.7
4.1
8.0
2.0
United Kingdom
2.5
-2.1
-5.0
25
2.0
39.5
-36.3
2.5
Italy
-9.2
-5.1
1.6
-3.1
3.8
6.3
8.6
4.2
Canada
0.3
0.2
2.3
-2.3
-3.6
14.7
-8.9
-5.6
Dollar Cost of Foreign Currency
.Japan
2.7
-12.9
4.6
0
-0.3
14.1
61.4
33.4
22.8
West Germany
-24.6
-7.2
5.2
-11.5
3.3
27.4
41.0
26.1
3.7
France
-28.7
-20.8
-15.9
-14.7
-2.7
26.3
41.0
23.7
--39.1
United Kingdom
-13.2
-13.4
13.3
-11.9
-3.0
12.8
-0.3
40.3 - -
- 8.7
Italy
-32.8
-18.8
-12.3
-15.6
--8.6
29.6
40.9
26.2
- 4.7
Canada
-2.5
-2.9
0.1
-5.1
5.4
-8.8
1.1
4.1
13.1
9.23
10.56
Year
8.16
4th Qtr
7.93
Jan
7.95
Feb
NA
Mar
90-day certificates of
deposit, secondary market
Japan
loans and discounts
(2 months)
West Germany
12.19
8.82
interbank loans
(3 months)
interbank money market
(3 months)
( Inited Kingdom
13.85
12.24
10.12
9.91
12.21
11.60
12.05
NA
sterling interbank loans
(3 months)
Italy
20.15
18.16
15.91
14.95
14.52
14.79
NA
Milan interbank loans
(3 months)
Canada
18.46
14.48
9.53
11.30
9.71
9.10
sA
NA
finance paper (3 months)
Eurodollars
16.87
13.25
9.69
10.86
8.41
8.15
8
19
NA
3-month deposits
.
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 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100310001-8
Agricultural Prices
Bananas
Fresh imported.
(Total world, $ per metric ton)
Beef (c per pound)
Australia
(Boneless beef,
f.o.b. US Ports)
united States
(Wholesale steer beef,
midwest markets)
Cocoa (e per pound)
Coffee ($ per pound)
Corn
(US =3 yellow,
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
Cotton
(World Cotton Prices, "A"
index, c.i.f. Osaka, US c/lb.)
Palm Oil
(United Kingdom 57( bulk,
c.i.f., $ per metric ton)
Rice ($ per metric ton)
1'S (No. 2, milled,
4`,~ c.i.f. Rotterdam)
Thai SWR
(I 00' grade B
c.i.f. Rotterdam)
Soybeans
(US ax2 yellow,
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
Soybean Oil
(Dutch, f.o.b. ex-mill,
S per metric ton)
Soybean Meal
(lUS, c.i.f. Rotterdam
$ per metric ton)
Sugar
(World raw cane, f.o.b.
Caribbean Ports, spot prices ? per pound)
Tea
Average Auction (London)
(e per pound)
Wheat
(US --Pp 2. DNS
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
Food Index (1980=100)
214.0
217.0
232.0
243.0
110.3
1st Qtr
109.8
Feb
109.3
Mar
110.7
Apr
NA
112.4
107.4
111.1
101.0
96.6
97.6
97.7
96.6
94.0
100.0
101.4
97.6
100.9
90.7
87.8
87.0
84.2
82.0
89.8
74.3
92.1
106.2
98.7
95.7
95.5
91.0
84.9
1.28
1.40
1.32
1.44
1.43
2.01
1.95
2.04
1.9
150
123
148
150
125
116
115
113
113
72.69
74.48
85.71
63.91
57.87
53.60
54.66
54.00
49.28
571
445
502
730
501
289
283
243
240
632
481
514
514
484
453
455
455
440
573
362
339
310
249
236
237
232
225
288
244
282
283
225
218
217
218
213
507
447
527
727
571
407
395
369
350
252
219
238
197
157
188
186
193
187
22.52
8.42
8.53
5.18
4.04
5.83
5.55
7.07
8.36
91.0
89.9
105.2
156.6
90.0
86.4
85.7
91.5
91.3
210
187
183
182
169
172
175
166
172
88
78
86
92
81
95
93
97
96
The food index is compiled by The Economist for 14 food commodities which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by 3-
11 year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
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Aluminum (c per pound)
Major US producer
77.3
76.0
77.7
81.0
81.0
81.0
81.0
81.0
81.0
I ME cash
57.4
44.9
65.1
56.8
47.2
51.4
50.6
53.1
52.8
Chrome Ore
53.0
50.9
50.0
50.0
43.9
40.0
40.0
40.0
40.0
(South Africa chemical
grade, S per metric ton)
Copper (bar, e per pound)
79.0
67.1
72.0
64.2
64.5
64.5
63.8
65.6
65.1
Gold ($ per troy ounce)
460.0
375.5
424.4
360.0
317.2
342.6
338.9
345.7
340.4
Lead (c per pound)
32.9
24.7
19.3
20.0
17.7
16.7
16.7
16.6
16.7
Manganese Ore
82.1
79.9
73.3
69.8
68.4
67.2
67.2
67.2
68.4
(48'% Mn, S per long ton)
Nickel ($ per pound)
Cathode major producer
3.5
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
I.MF Cash
2.7
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.2
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.8
Platinum ($ per troy ounce)
Major producer
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
Metals week,
446.0
326.7
422.6
358.2
291.0
383.1
373.8
413.0
417.0
New York dealers' price
Rubber (c per pound)
Synthetic h
Natural
56.8
45.4
56.2
49.6
42.0
41.7
42.5
42.0
40.0
Siher ($ per troy ounce)
10.5
7.9
11.4
8.1
6.1
5.9
5.9
5.7
5.2
Steel Scrap a ($ per long ton)
92.0
63.1
73.2
86.4
74.4
74.0
75.0
73.7
Tin (c per pound)
641.4
581.6
590.9
556.6
543.2
357.4
385.6
329.2
257.9
Tungsten Ore
(contained metal,
S per metric ton)
US Steel
(finished steel, composite,
S per long ton)
Zinc (c per pound)
38.4
33.7
34.7
41.5
35.4
28.5
27.6
28.4
27.3
(.umber Index
95
84
114
105
103
100
99
114
129
1980= 100)
Industrial Materials Index
1 1 980=1 00)
Approximates world market price frequently used by major world
producers and traders, although only small quantities of these
metals are actually traded on the LME. As of February 1986 tin
prices from the Penang market.
S-type styrene, US export price.
Quoted on New York market.
Average of No. I heavy melting steel scrap and No. 2 bundles
delivered to consumers at Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Chicago.
This index is compiled by using the average of 10 types of lumber
whose prices are regarded as bellwethers of US lumber construction
costs.
The industrial materials index is compiled by The Economist for
18 raw materials which enter international trade. Commodities are
weighted by 3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized
countries.
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 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100310001-8
World Crude Oil Production
Excluding Natural Gas Liquids
Year
3d Qtr
4th Qtr
Jan
Feb
World
55,837
53,092
52,633
53,691
53,356
52,373
55,015
53,757
Non-Communist countries
41,602
38,810
38,228
39,257
38,692
37,588
40,707
39,471
40,423
Developed countries
12,886
13,276
13,864
14,302
14,730
14,643
14,958
15,083
15,070
United States
8,572
8,658
8,680
8,735
8,933
8,954
8,933
8,942
8,934
Canada
1,285
1,270
1,356
1,411
1,457
1,444
1,476
1,480
1,480
United Kingdom
1,811
2,094
2,299
2,535
2,533
2,399
2,607
2,734
2,699
Norway
501
518
614
700
785
823
870
839
870
Other
717
736
915
921
1,022
1,023
1,072
1,088
1.087
Non-OPEC LDCs
6,036
6,633
6,823
7,515
7,845
7,922
7,888
7,678
7,393
Mexico
2,321
2,746
2,666
2,746
2,733
2,738
2,721
2,510
2,400
Egypt
598
665
689
827
874
890
856
860
600
Other
3,117
3,222
3,468
3,942
4,238
4,294
4,311
4,308
4,393
OPEC
22,680
18,901
17,541
17,440
16,117
15,023
17,861
16,710
17,960
Algeria
803
701
699
638
645
616
660
650
550
Ecuador
211
211
236
253
280
282
287
300
220
Gabon
151
154
157
152
153
153
160
160
160
Indonesia
1,604
1,324
1,385
1,466
1,235
1,203
1,286
1,200
1,300
Iran
1,381
2,282
2,492
2,187
2,258,
2,335
2,301
1,700
2,200
Iraq
993
972
922
1,203
1,437
1,482
1,666
1,680
1,880
Kuwait b
947
663
881
912
862
800
899
1,000
1,100
Libya
1,137
1,183
1,076
1,073
1,069
933
1,234
1,100
1,000
Neutral Zone
370
317
390
410
355
306
391
300
300
Nigeria
1,445
1,298
1,241
1,393
1,464
1,214
1,686
1,300
1,400
Qatar
405
328
295
399
302
312
312
400
300
Saudi Arabia
9,625
6,327
4,867
4,444
3,290
2,564
4,067
4,200
4,600
UAE
1,500
1,248
1,119
1,097
1,146
1,193
1,242
1,165
1,400
Venezuela
2,108
1,893
1,781
1,813
1,621
1,630
1,670
1,555
1,550
Communist countries
14,235
14,282
14,405
14,434
14,664
14,785
14,308
14,286
USSR
11,800
11,830
11,864
11,728
11,749
-11,866
-11,367
11,350
China
2,024
2,042
2,121
2,286
2,496
2,504
2,521
2,496
Other
411
410
420
420
419
415
420
440
Preliminary.
n Excluding Neutral Zone production, which is shown separately.
Production is shared equally between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
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 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100310001-8
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption
Year
3d Qtr
4th Qtr
Jan
Feb
M
A
U
i
d S
ar
pr
n
te
tates
16,058
15,296
15,184
15,708
15,697
15,557
15
748
15
923
16
056
16
457
-
15
8
J
,
,
,
,
,
33
apan
4,444
4,204
4,193
4,349
4,121
3,839
4
361
4
661
5
046
W
G
,
,
,
est
ermany
2,120
2,024
2,009
2,012
2,060
2,233
1
993
F
,
rance
1,744
1,632
1,594
1,531
1,493
1,310
1,569
1
633
2
019
1
545
U
it
d Ki
d
,
,
,
n
e
ng
om
1,325
1,345
1,290
1,624
1,398
1,230
1
292
1
269
l
b
It
,
,
y
a
1,705
1,618
1,594
1,513
1,516
1,436
1
642
1
718
1
855
1
5
C
d
,
,
,
,
35
ana
a
1,617
1,454
1,354
1,348
1,344
1,362
1,400
1,359
Including bunkers, refinery fuel, and losses.
b Principal products only prior to 1981.
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports
----
Year
4th Qtr
Jan
F
b
------------
e
Mar Apr
United States
4,406 32488
3,329
3,402
3,216
3,662
3,329
2,993 3
058 3
701
Japan
3,919
3,657
3,567
3,664
3
377
,
,
-
,
West Germany-1,5911,451
1,307
1,335
1,284
France 1,804 1,596
1,429
1,395
1,476
1,590
1,430
1,420
United Kingdom 736 565
456
482
It
l
a
y - 1,816 1,710
1,532
1,507
C
d
ana
a 521 334
247
244
283
343
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 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100310001-8
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
OPEC Average
(Official Sales Price)
30.87
34.50
33.63
29.31
28.70
28.14
28.15
28.11
28.08
28.09
World Average Price
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
27.16
27.36
24.81
20.32
17.05
F.o.b. prices set by the government for direct sales and, in most cases, for the producing company buy-back oil. Weighted by the volume
of production.
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100310001-8
 Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100310001-8
Average Crude Oil Sales Price"
34.50 33.63
30. 7 I I I 39.31 2
-1 F1 ('"7 ~ 2 7^I 6
13.39
F
1973 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85
20.32
# `t "T 1 L I
I II III IV J F
The 1973 price is derived Irom posted prices. 1974-84 prices
are derived Irom OPEC of l icial sales prices. and beginning
in 1985. prices are a measure of average world sales prices.
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100310001-8
 .
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100310001-8
Approved For Release 2011/05/16: CIA-RDP97-0077OR000100310001-8