(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP04T00447R000302300001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: January 12, 2017
• Document Release Date: March 18, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 18, 1985
• Content Type: MEMO

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/18: CIA-RDP04T00447R000302300001-6
-Central Intelligence Agency
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
18 December 1985
Taiwan's Provincial Elections: Clearing the Way for Change
Summary
The Kuomintang's overwhelming victory in the provincial elections
on 16 November has helped boost the confidence of the party, which has
been beset by problems in recent months. We expect President Chiang
Ching-kuo to try to correct some of these problems by making changes in
the government and party early next year that could lead to a moderation
of Taiwan's current hardline foreign policy and implementation of needed
economic reforms. If Chiang, however, interprets the election results as a
vote of confidence for his advisers and the current group of party elders
remains in place, we would expect factionalism to increase and public
confidence in the government, which declined over the summer, to erode
This memorandum was prepared byl I Office of East Asian Analysis.
Information available as of 18 December 1985 was used in its preparation. Comments
and queries are welcome and may be directed to the Chief, Foreign Affairs, China
Division, OEA,
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/18: CIA-RDP04T00447R000302300001-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/18: CIA-RDP04T00447R000302300001-6
Winning a New Mandate?
The ruling Kuomintang (KMT) won an expected majority in the 16 November
provincial elections, garnering 69 percent of the popular vote--albeit a slip of 2 percent
from the last provincial elections. The dangwai (opposition) failed, however, to turn the
elections into a referendum on the KMT leadership and to capitalize on financial
scandal' and the Henry Liu murder. The KMT won 146 of 191 contested seats for
county magistrate, Taiwan Provincial Assembly, and the Taipei and Kaohsiung Municipal
Councils. Thus, the KMT remains in firm control at the local level, and will be able to
point to the results to dismiss opposition claims that there is a crisis of confidence in
the government. 25X1
In our judgment, the KMT's overwhelming victory results from three key factors:
? The party's organizational superiority, which enables it to "get out the vote."
? Its ability to field attractive, well-educated Taiwanese candidates, who appeal to
the largely Taiwanese electorate and are responsive to voter concerns.
? The election and recall law that favors the KMT machine by limiting the "official"
campaign period to the ten days prior to the election and the number of rallies
candidates can hold during a single day--placing strains on dangwai campaigners
who lack an organized infrastucture.
The party was also assisted by splits among opposition leaders--who could not
agree on a common slate of candidates and in some cases competed against each
other--allowing KMT candidates to win with only a plurality of the vote. Radical
opposition candidates, who in 1981 and 1983 attracted voters based on sympathy for
relatives jailed after the 1979 rioting in Kaohsiung--were unable to recapture the
sympathy vote this year. Finally, national issues, such as the 10th Credit financial
scandal, turned out to be less important to most voters--at least outside of
Taipei--than local issues such as the enviroment, roads, schools, and social services,
according to American Institute in Taiwan reporting.
We believe that the KMT's victory will restore party confidence, which has been
battered by allegations of corruption and financial malfeasance against senior party and
government officials. Assuming Chiang's health does not deteriorate, we expect him to
make long-anticipated changes in the Executive Yuan (cabinet) and to begin to plan for
25X1
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/18: CIA-RDP04T00447R000302300001-6
 the 29 March plenum, which probably will elect a new Central Standing Committee and a
new party Secretary-General. We also expect Chiang to begin to tackle some of the
problems that have beset the government and to strengthen the KMT's ability to attract 25X1
voter support in the fall 1986 legislative elections. Although we are unsure about the
composition of a new cabinet the President intends to
name the Vice President, Li Teng-hui, to the premiership. 25X1
Local pundits have also speculated that the current director of the party's
Organizational Affairs Department and Chiang family member, Sung Shih-hsuan, may
replace Ma Shu-li, a member of the KMT old guard, as the current party
secretary-general. Sung is a moderate who is 25X1
well-regarded by party members and has a strong following among younger party cadre.
Also rumored for promotion is Minister of Education Li Huan, who may become Vice
Premier. Since the stroke of former Premier Sun Yun-hsuan and the dismissal of former
KMT Secretary General Chiang Yen-shih, Li has been the de facto head of the moderate
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/18: CIA-RDP04T00447R000302300001-6
If these changes occur, we expect to see a shift from current hardline policies to
more flexible policies, including economic reforms.3 We suspect that the moderates
have been very critical of the hardliners' foreign policy positions, particularly on the use
of Taiwan's "official" name, "The Republic of China," which they opposed several years
ago. They probably would push to expand Taiwan's international economic ties and
allow trade and some unofficial contact with the mainland, believing that a more
moderate approach is the best way of counterin Chinese efforts to isolate Taiwan and
force Taipei into a dialogue over reunification. 25X1
Alternatively, but we think less likely, the election results could convince Chiang
that changes in the senior leadership are unnecessary, at least for the present. In that
case, Premier Yu Kuo-hua and Shen Chang-huan, Secretary-General of the Presidential
Office, would continue to exercise control over the party and government apparatus and
to promote their hardline domestic and foreign policies. Inherently cautious, this group
of leaders would not push for needed economic reforms, and probably would seek to
retard both the Taiwanization and liberalization of governing institutions. Over time,
such actions could trigger serious factional infighting in the KMT between party old
timers and younger Taiwanese and mainlanders. 25X1
2 Li's assumption of the Premiership would not change his status as Chiang's
constitutional successor. It is possible that Li might hold both positions concurrently.
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/18: CIA-RDP04T00447R000302300001-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/18: CIA-RDP04T00447R000302300001-6
County Magistrates and Municipal Mayors
City/County
Penghu County
Hualien County
Changhua County
Taipei County
Ilan County
Tainan County
Kaohsiung County
Taitung County
Yunlin County
Taoyuan County
Chiayi County
Taichung County
Pingtung County
Miaoli County
Hsinchu County
Nantou County
Taichung City
Keelung City
Chiayi City
Tainan City
Hsinchu City
Name
Ou Chien-chuang
Chen Ching-shui
Huang Shih-chen
Lin Feng-cheng
Chen Ting-nan
Lee Ya-chiao
Yu-Chen Yueh-ying
(female)
Cheng Lieh
Hsu Wen-chih
Hsu Hung-chih
Ho Chia-Jung
Chen Keng-chin
Shih Meng-hsiung
Hsieh Ching-ting
Chen Chin-hsing
Wu Tun-yi
Chang Tsu-nan
Chang Chun-hsi
Chang Po-ya
Lin Wen-hsiung
Jen Fu-yung
Affiliation
KMT
KMT
Independent
KMT
Dangwai
KMT
Dangwai
KMT
KMT
Dangwai
KMT
Incumbent
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/18: CIA-RDP04T00447R000302300001-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/18: CIA-RDP04T00447R000302300001-6
Subject: Taiwan's Provincial Elections: Clearing the Way for
Change
Distribution:
1 -- James Lilley, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau
of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Room 4318, Department
of State
1 -- Richard Williams, Director, Office of Chinese Affairs,
Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Room 4318,
Department of State
1 -- John J. Taylor, Director, Office of Analysis for East Asia
and the Pacific, Bureau of Intelligence and Research,
Room 8840, Department of State
1 -- Mark Pratt, Diector, EA/RA/Taiwan Coordination, Room 4312,
Department of State
1 -- James Kelley, Deputy Assistant Secretary for East Asian
and Pacific Affairs, Room 4E817, Pentagon
1 -- John Sloan DIO for East Asia, Room 2C238, Pentagon
Room 1C945, Pentagon
1 -- Byron Jackson, ice o intelligence Liaison, Room 6854,
Department of Commerce
1 -- Robert Perito, Chief, China Office, East Asian and
Pacific, Room2317, Department of Commerce
1 -- DDI (7E47)
1 -- Senior Review Panel (5GOO)
1 -- D/OEA (4F18)
2 -- OEA/CH (4G32)
1 -- OEA/CH/DOM (4G32)
1 -- OEA/CH/DEF (4G32)
1 -- OEA/CH/DEV (4G32)
1 -- OEA/CH/FOR (4G32)
1 -- OEA/Production Staff (4G48)
1 -- PDB Staff (7F15)
1 -- NIO/EA (7E47) 25X1
1 -- C/PES 7G15)
1 -- C/DO (3001)
1 -- C/EA 5E18) 25X1
1 -- C/EA~-] (5038)
1 -- DDO/EA/ (5054) 25X1
1 -- OCR/CH
1 -- NIC/Analytical Group (7E47)
1 -- OGI/ECD/IT (3G46) 25X1
1 -- CPAS/ILS ((
5 -- CPAS IMS CB 7G15)
25X1 1 --
DDI/OEA/CH/FOR (02 December 1985)
25X1
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/03/18: CIA-RDP04T00447R000302300001-6