(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84T00301R000600010011-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: January 12, 2017
• Document Release Date: August 16, 2010
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: October 29, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

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D .,,- ector of Top See
Central
Intelligence
0_ _ C
National Intelligence Daily
(Cable)
29 October 1982
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Top Secret
Spain: Socialists Win Absolute Majority . . . . . . . . . . 1
Syria-PLO: Efforts To Undermine Arafat . . . . . . . . . . 2
Poland: Debate Over Living Standards . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Saudi Arabia: Loan to IMF Delayed . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Libya - Central African Republic: Military Aid . . . . . . 8
E:C: Budget Compromise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
UK: Considering Import Controls . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Top Secret
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expected to favor the right.
SPAIN: Socialists Win Absolute Majority
The Socialists won 194 out of 350 parliamentary seats in
yesterday's election, despite a heavy voter turnout that had been
Comment: The vote has polarized Spain's party struc-
ture around the moderate left and the democratic right,
while virtually wiping out the center. The moderate
regionalist parties maintained their strength, but the
Communists lost nearly two-thirds of their support and
will not be able to form their own parliamentary group
with only six deputies.
The magnitude of the Socialist victory will create
difficulties for party leader Felipe Gonzalez, who would
have preferred to govern with a centrist coalition part-
ner. A coalition partner would have partially placated
rightists and the military, helped control radicals
within the Socialist Party, and given Gonzalez an excuse
not to carry out some of the Socialists' more controver-
sial campaign promises.
Gonzalez could still invite a centrist or regional
party into his cabinet, citing the need for a broad base
of support for Spain's first leftist government in 50
years. Such a move, however, would be hard to sell to
some voters and Socialist politicians, and most of the
moderating impact of a centrist partner on a Socialist
government would be lost.
Nonetheless, Gonzalez will move cautiously despite
pressure to implement at least some Socialist promises
such as a referendum on NATO membership, partial renego-
tiation of the bilateral treaty with the US, and reconsid-
eration of the F-18 fighter purchase. He will be aided
by the relatively low priority given to foreign issues
in the campaign. Additionally, the Socialists are aware
that alienating the military would court disaster.
The Socialists have emphasized that no action will
be taken on NATO and bilateral matters without consulta-
tions with the Allies. This should enable Gonzalez to
delay key foreign policy decisions until the new govern-
ment has assessed their full implications.
Top Secret
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SYRIA-PLO: Efforts To Undermine Arafat
Syria, disturbed by continuing discussions between Jordan's
King Hussein and PLO chief Arafat, has Zaunched a new campaign to
During Arafat's visit to Amman earlier this month,
the Syrian Information Minister publicly challenged the
PLO leader's authority to speak for all Palestinians.
He made a veiled threat by acknowledging the presence
in Damascus of Sabri Al Banna, leader of the breakaway
Black June Palestinian terrorist group, who has vowed
to kill Arafat and other senior Fatah officials. In
mid-October Damascus issued a statement allegedly signed
by five radical Palestinian groups that condemned Arafat's
undermine Arafat's Zeadership position in the PLO.
talks with Hussein.
Comment: Assad fears Arafat and other pragmatists
in the PLO will ally themselves with Jordan, strike a
deal with Israel, and exclude Syria from a settlement.
He opposes any other state taking the lead on the Pales-
tinian issue and has long sought to make the PLO serve
The Syrian leader probably would prefer that Arafat
work closely with Damascus and remain the leader of
the PLO. Nonetheless, Assad would be likely to try to
replace Arafat if he seems to threaten Syria's vital
interests. Assad's current aims are to weaken Arafat
and encourage the emergence of a more malleable collec-
Syrian national interests.
tive leadership.
Top Secret
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Top Secret
//The resignation this week of Michael Pit field, a key aide
to Prime Minister Trudeau, may signal an announcement by Trudeau
//Pitfield helped persuade Trudeau to run for the
leadership of the Liberal Party in 1968, and he has been
a close aide throughout Trudeau's tenure. Pundits have
that he will not Zead his party in the next election.//
long speculated that his departure would be one of the
signs that Trudeau was about to step down.//
Comment: //The Liberal Party's convention opens
next Thursday, and Pitfield's resignation, effective
later this year, will increase speculation about Trudeau's
plans. The possibility the Prime Minister may bow out
before the next election, which is likely to be held in
1984, probably will encourage opposition parties to
increase their attacks on his government's economic
policies.//
//Trudeau's forces initiated their current economic
policy in midsummer by introducing a civil-service wage-
restraint program. The Prime Minister's three nationally
televised talks on the economy last week were unimpres-
sive, however, and high unemployment and inflation rates
persist. The announcement on Wednesday of new programs
to create jobs is likely to help the government, but the
same speech revealed a further increase in the deficit,
to US $19.2 billion.//
//Although Trudeau probably does not intend to run
for prime minister again, announcing this now would hurt
his party. The Liberals trailed the Tories by 15 points
in recent polls. Trudeau has often disregarded party
considerations, however, and he may make an announcement
soon. //
Top Secret
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Top Secret
POLAND: Debate Over Living Standards
Discussion of economic policy at the Central Com-
mittee on Wednesday indicates there is increasing pres-
sure to give higher priority to consumption. The party
secretary for economics said a majority of party organi-
zations want faster growth in living standards than out-
lined in the draft economic plan for 1983-85. The plan
now gives priority to increasing exports and national
income by 27 and 16 percent, respectively, by 1985, while
per capita consumption is to grow by only 7 percent.
US Embassy officers also report workers are unhappy the
plan calls for a six-day workweek in more industries
and for substantial price rises, starting with a
25-percent increase in 1983.
Comment: The debate is not likely to cause a
dramatic change in targets. The leadership would like
to appease workers by offering the prospect of higher
living standards, but the massive debt problem leaves
little room for maneuver. Even with its trade surplus
this year and no payments to Western creditors, Poland
will be able to pay perhaps one-third of the interest
for 1982 owed private creditors.
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SAUDI ARABIA: Loan to IMF Delayed
Saudi Arabia has delayed a decision on extending a
loan of nearly $4 billion to the IMF because of declining
oil revenues. Riyadh has loaned about $9 billion to the
IMF in the last two years.
Comment: The Saudis presumably will make most of
the payment by next spring to avoid political embarrass-
ment and to maintain their recently acquired importance
in the IMF. Riyadh has delayed many voluntary financial
commitments until it completes a budgetary review. It
probably will cut some development expenditures in its
budget for the new fiscal year beginning in April.
Top Secret
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Top Secret
LIBYA - CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC: Military Aid
//A Libyan military team
last weekend,
arrived unannounced in Bangui
The Frenc
Charge subsequently told US diplomats the Libyans will
train a new armored unit. The French also report that a
sizable shipment of small arms will be delivered in early
November and that two Libyan-supplied tanks are awaiting
Comment: The Central African Government opportunis-
tically renewed ties with Libya last month in exchange
for promises of much needed economic aid that it has not
been able to get from France. President Kolingba, who has
just visited Paris, hopes, his acceptance of Libyan military
assistance will force the French to counter with new aid
offers. Tripoli is eager to maneuver the Central African
Republic into asking Paris to withdraw the 1,300 troops
it maintains in the country to protect French regional
interests. The Libyans also want to establish a presence
in the north as a base for subversion against southern
shipment from Tripoli.//
Chad and Sudan.
EC: Budget Compromise
//EC foreign ministers have again reached a compro-
mise on the perennial problem of the UK's contributions
to the EC budget. The complicated agreement, announced
on Tuesday by British Foreign Secretary Pym, calls for
early payment of the refund for 1983--$790 million--and
using the accruing interest to offset additional British
contributions required by the end of the year. For the
past three years Prime Minister Thatcher has demanded
substantial budget rebates from the Community because
she believes her country is saddled with a dispropor-
Comment: //The compromise postpones annual discus-
sions of this issue until well into 1983. Thatcher may
decide to call national elections early next year, and
her readiness to accept this arrangement probably reflects
her desire to avoid creating another major controversy in
the EC. In addition, the Ten have sought to play down
internal squabbles in the face of mounting economic dis-
putes with the US. Such annual wrangles over the budget
will continue until economic conditions in Western Europe
tionate share of EC spending.//
allow a permanent settlement.//
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UK: Considering Import Controls
Top Secret
//The cabinet will meet on Tuesday to consider con-
trols on some imports to protect Britain's hard-hit in-
dustrial sector. A paper reportedly has been prepared
outlining unilateral actions that could be taken against
imports from the US, Spain, Japan, South Korea, Brazil,
and several East European countries.//
Comment: //London probably will first push for vol-
untary import restraints. With an election approaching
possibly as early as next spring and unemployment at over
3.2 million or 12.8 percent of the labor force, however,
the government is under growing pressure to retaliate
against the protectionist practices of its trading part-
ners. Tory ministers are concerned about their election
chances and have been urging Prime Minister Thatcher to
make at least a gesture on unemployment, and she may want
to retaliate for US trade actions against the Soviet
pipeline and on steel. Any such actions against the US
probably would be aimed at chemical and agricultural
products.//
Top Secret
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'['op Sc::cret
Top: Secret
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