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CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0
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January 1, 1987
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REPORT
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Directorate of Intelligence Islamic Republic Iran's Revolutionary Guard: Armed Pillar of the See NESA 87-10004 January 1987 Copy 4 4 3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 25X1 Directorate of Intelligence Islamic Republic Iran's Revolutionary Guard: Armed Pillar of the Division, NESA, =Office of Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis. It was coordinated with the Directorate of Operations. Comments and queries are welcome and may be directed to the Chief, Persian Gulf This paper was prepared by Secret NESA 87-10004 January 1987 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Secret Summary Information available as of 2 January 1987 was used in this paper. Islamic Republic Iran's Revolutionary Guard: Armed Pillar of the Khomeini's death. Iran's Revolutionary Guard has evolved from a dedicated, but loosely knit, ill-trained, and ineffectively controlled organization into a multifaceted formal government institution with a pervasive influence throughout Iranian society. The Revolutionary Guard's military assets and political clout virtually guarantee it an important and powerful role in Iran after rivalries and disputes appear to be intensifying. Like other institutions in Iran, the Guard is beset by factionalism, and the regime's efforts to impose order on its organizational structure and to tighten control of the Guard's activities have not been completely success- ful. The Guard's civilian components continue to exceed the authority granted them by the government. Recurrent, often deadly, clashes still occur between regular army and Guard units on the war front. Factional security and police force. Revolutionary Guard leaders have used the authority granted under the 1979 Islamic Constitution to develop a major domestic security role. The Guard has succeeded in molding various religious and revolutionary law enforcement groups into a powerful security network backed by a formida- ble intelligence capability. Concerns about the Guard's abuse of authority and fear of the threat its power and influence could pose to the regime have prompted the clerical leadership to cut back the Guard's role as an internal Force. The regime intends the Revolutionary Guard to become the core of a new "army of the revolution" that will eventually replace the regular armed forces. The Guard's experience in the war with Iraq has made it a more ef- fective military force. It has learned from its defeats, improved its operational skills, tightened its discipline and control, and assumed an increasingly significant role in planning war strategy. Despite numerous purges of the military and the creation of a political control apparatus attached to all regular armed forces units, the clerical leadership remains suspicious of the loyalty of the country's Ground Forces, Navy, and Air The Guard's domestic intelligence network and military capabilities will make it a major factor in the transition of power once Khomeini is gone. Nonetheless, factionalism and political infighting will significantly test the Secret NESA 87-10004 January 1987 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Guard's ability to maintain order during the transition. The Guard's institutional cohesion will be challenged and could break down as those vying for power and control seek support from elements within the Guard. The Revolutionary Guard is not an ideologically monolithic organization. Although generally characterized by a fanatical loyalty to Ayatollah Khomeini and the zealous propagation of the ideals of the Islamic revolution, the Guard has a diverse membership and is split along both factional and "generational" lines. Coalitions and loyalties within the Guard are highly fluid. The dominant elements within the Guard, however, maintain a strong, anti-US position and will be a major obstacle to any renewal of US-Iranian relations in the post-Khomeini era. This deep-seated animosity toward the United States could lead the Guard, as a way to preserve the regime or its own position, to support improved relations with the Soviet Union. Such support would present Moscow with significant opportunities to expand its influence in Iran. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Summary Early Evolution of the Revolutionary Guard The "Civilian" Side of the Revolutionary Guard 2 Guarding the Revolution Within 4 Regime Concerns 5 The Revolutionary Guard as a Military Force 7 Organization and Manpower 9 The Revolutionary Guard and Basij in Combat 10 Improving Performance 10 Creating an "Army of the Revolution" 11 Protectors of the Revolution: A Sampler of 17 Enforcement Groups Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Iran's Revolutionary Guard: Armed Pillar of the Islamic Republic The fundamental role of the Revolutionary Guard is to protect and promote the interests of the Islamic republic. It is one of the key institutions through which the clerical regime has consolidated its control over Iranian society, countered internal and external threats to the republic, and exported fundamentalist Islamic ideology. As the regime in Tehran solidified its power, it focused on transforming the Guard from a loosely knit collection of ragtag propaganda groups and pri- vate armies into a structured, tightly disciplined force. The Guard's civilian component is organized primari- ly to operate in population centers-where they are closely associated with the local mosque-rather than in rural areas. Its military arm has evolved under the pressure of the war with Iraq into a more conventional armed force. Most observers believe that the Revolu- tionary Guard will be a key factor in any future power struggle in Iran Early Evolution of the Revolutionary Guard The Revolutionary Guard (Sepah-e Pasdaran-e Enge- lab) was an important force in establishing the Islamic republic. The concept of a Revolutionary Guard appears to have originated among members of Ayatol- lah Khomeini's entourage long before the ouster of the Shah. Clerics and secular figures alike saw the value of an armed force loyal to Khomeini and his ideals. They believed such an organization would not only help bring about the Shah's downfall, but would be useful in creating a revolutionary government and in propagating the values of the new Islamic order, The Revolutionary Guard was formally established in May 1979 by Ayatollah Khomeini under the auspices of the then governing Revolutionary Council to re- store and maintain order. Concern over the multitude of "revolutionary" committees that had sprung up after the Shah's downfall prompted the new regime to give the Guard considerable autonomy and encourage its rapid expansion. Hastily pulled together from trusted anti-Shah groups, clerics' militias, and ex- servicemen, the Guard was immediately called upon to sustain the new government by intimidating opposi- tion elements and absorbing or co-opting a variety of independent armed groups throughout Iran. It served as one of the principal and most trusted means available to the new regime for consolidating its control. As a result of the hectic circumstances sur- rounding its birth, however, the Guard had little time to develop effective control over its units. The Guard took on a wide variety of functions and responsibilities to support the new republic. It bore the brunt of clashes with dissident ethnic minorities, took over many routine law enforcement activities, and performed special security duties at key installa- tions. The Guard was also charged, early on, with political organization and propagandizing on behalf of the Islamic revolution. Working closely with the clerical leadership and implementing its orders, the Revolutionary Guard quickly became the point of daily contact between many citizens and the new regime. Contrary to Khomeini's design, however, the Guard-poorly trained and ineffectively controlled-generally did not make a good impression. As a result, the Guard's activities and the attitudes of its members often conflicted with the authority of religious and secular leaders and local security forces. Moreover, despite its close ties to the regime, the Guard's zeal in promoting the revolution sometimes ran counter to the govern- ment's wishes or resulted in local challenges to the 25X1 25X1 -- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Figure 1. Mohsen Ra lq-Dust, Minister of the Revolutionary Figure 2. Mohsen Rezai, Revolutionary Guard Corps Administering the Guard's Civilian Components each subordinate command within the Guard's civilian organizational structure is administered by a revolu- tionary council or committee. In most cases these are led by a mullah who is assisted by a cadre of Revolutionary Guards. They serve as the focal point for communications between higher Guard authority and local Guard units. We believe the size of these committees and their supporting cadre varies in relation to the population density of the region. Typically, a committee consists of seven to 12 men and is backed by a force of 400 to 500 Guards with responsibility for several villages, towns, or other cities. Tehran, however, is administered by 15 such Information on the internal structure of the area commands is sketchy, but it is probably broken down into major staff elements that have specific-but probably overlapping-responsibility and authority. 25X1 25X1 25X1 regime's authority. To control extremists within the Guard, repeated local and national campaigns were conducted to purge undesirable Guards and control Guard activitiesa The Ministry of the Revolutionary Guard, headed by Mohsen Rafiq-Dust, was established in late 1982. It is responsible for supporting Revolutionary Guard com- bat units on the war front and has administrative authority over the "civilian" programs and units of the Guard. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is the military arm of the Revolutionary Guard. Although nominally equal to the Ministry, the IRGC apparently enjoys a higher status within the regime because of its importance in the war, the stature of its commander Mohsen Rezai, and the prospect that it will eventually replace the regular military while at least four focus on manpower, recruitment, and training for Revolutionary Guard and Basij units. Coordination of thesefunctions is the responsi- bility of the area commander, aided by his deputy and chief of staff. The "Civilian" Side of the Revolutionary Guard Civilian elements of the Revolu- tionary Guard are organized in a hierarchical struc- ture based on geographical areas and population centers from cities to small villages. The basic unit within the Guard's civilian organization appears to be the "post" or "base"-normally a group of about 20 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Secret Figure 3 Iran: Old and New Revolutionary Guard Area Commands Soviet Union Area 1 Area 2 Area 3 Area 4 Area 5 Old guard boundary New guard boundary 290 Kilometers Mashhad Arabian Sea 709264(544499)1-87 25X1 B' GHDAD ~I,a l(marsh.~ vta%noo Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Secret Revolutionary Guards-located in a town or village. In larger cities these units are located within 1 or 2 kilometers of each other or in each city precinct. Posts or bases are under the jurisdiction of city subordinate commands located in larger towns and cities. District central commands are based in the largest provincial cities and are responsible for over- seeing and directing Guard activities within their region F__~ Revolutionary Guard area commands oversee the provinces and report directly to central Guard au- thorities in Tehran. In late 1985 the regime combined several of the original 10 commands, reducing the number of Revolutionary Guard area commands. All the lower echelon elements probably were kept intact and resubordinated to the new area commands. We believe this reorganization was part of a continuing process designed to strengthen the central govern- ment's control over Guard elements, reduce the Guard's nonmilitary role, and improve the logistic and administrative support each area provides combat units. At the apex of the civilian structure is the Ministry of the Revolutionary Guard. The Ministry is nominally the main executor of the regime's domestic policies and ensures logistic and administrative support for IRGC combat units. Although supervision and con- trol of the civilian organizational structure are pri- marily the responsibility of the Ministry, we believe actual authority is shared with the IRGC. Mobiliza- tion and training of the Basij-Iran's irregular militia forces-for example, appear to be jointly controlled by the Ministry and the IRGC. We believe that the acquisition of arms and equip- ment is another area in which the Ministry "shares" authority and responsibility with the IRGC. Nonetheless, the Ministry ap- pears to be acting, in most cases, as an agent. Its procurement of arms is geared to requests by the IRGC. Guarding the Revolution Within. The principal mis- sion of the Revolutionary Guard-defined by Ayatol- lah Khomeini to "keep the Revolution alive and strong"-has been subject to various interpretations. Within six months of the Guard's formal creation, Khomeini indicated that its focus on internal security in response to local disturbances was only temporary, Nonetheless, Revolu- tionary Guard leaders continued to use the responsi- bilities given to the Guard in the 1979 Islamic Constitution to maintain a major domestic security the Guard's major internal security functions have evolved into a broad range of duties, including: ? Training its members in Islamic ideology and poli- tics as well as in military skills. ? Ideological and political proselytizing. ? Helping implement revolutionary and religious judi- cial orders and enforcing law and order, especially with regard to counterrevolutionaries, leftists, and ethnic minorities. ? Defending against attack by foreign military forces or infiltrators. ? Cooperating with the regular armed forces, but maintaining the capability to prevent a military coup. 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Secret Initially, the Guard's small size, its lack of training and discipline, and a chronic shortage of funds and equipment hampered its ability to perform its domes- tic security mission. The force included lower-class criminals, extortionists, and bullies whose strong-arm tactics and brutality created or worsened local distur- bances. In some cases Guard excesses forced local authorities to demand the withdrawal or reorganiza- tion of Guard forces. The regime's first attempts to remedy these deficien- cies were only marginally successful. Despite repeated national and local campaigns to weed undesirable elements out of Guard units, clashes with local au- thorities and charges of brutality, corruption, and abuse of power continued in 1982, In our judgment, these problems led to the formal incorporation of the Revolutionary Guard into the government in 1982. The creation of the Ministry of the Revolutionary Guard was intended to: ? Bring order to the rapidly expanding Guard organization. ? Establish an effective chain of command for con- trolling Guard activities. ? Centralize control over Guard financial, logistic, and legal affairs. Although the Ministry proved to be no panacea for the Guard's problems, Minister Rafiq-Dust imposed some order on the Guard's civilian organization. A formal chain of command was established through which local Guard elements would-at least in the- ory-be under tighter central control. More impor- tant, the Ministry focused on improving its internal security apparatus and increasing support for the regime. the Ministry suc- ceeded in molding Guard units and various religious and revolutionary law enforcement groups into a pervasive and powerful security network backed by a formidable internal intelligence capability. Moreover, the Guard's reputation for ruthlessness was not dimin- ished. It continued to cow the populace and destroyed the ability of dissident groups to affect the course of events in Iran. Through the Ministry the clerical leadership sought to bring order to the Guard's financial, logistic, and legal affairs. We believe that Minister Rafiq-Dust interpreted this as a broad mandate to expand signifi- cantly his control over arms purchases abroad as well as over Iran's indigenous arms production. In our judgment, the Ministry's arms purchasing authority and its near total control over Iran's indige- nous arms industries are the source of much of its political power. however, Iran's deteriorating economy, combined with charges of fraud and corruption in the upper echelons of the Guard Ministry, may have prompted the regime to transfer at least some of the authority for weapons procurement back to the Ministry of Defense in mid-1986. Regime Concerns. The Ministry's growing internal security role, combined with the IRGC's greater part in the war, made many regime leaders fear that the Guard was becoming too powerful and a potential threat to clerical rule, This fear was partly responsible for the formation of the Intelligence Ministry in 1984. By early 1985 the 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Figure 5 Iran: Organization of the Ministry of the Revolutionary Guard Minister of the Revolutionary Guard Prosecutor's Office ? Interrogation ? Detention Operations Department ? Plans ? Security patrols Intelligence Department ? Investigations ? Surveillance ? Technical Operations ? Foreign Operations (Liberation Movements) ? Operational Support Training Department ? Domestic ? Foreign Administration Department ? Finance ? Personnel Logistics Department ? Arms procurement Regional district and city commands h N Basij (Mobiliza- tion) forces Mobilization, training, and logistic support Guard's internal intelligence and security responsibil- committees whose main function was to ensure public ities had been handed over to the Intelligence Minis- conformity to religious laws and revolutionary mores) t r y - - The autonomous, was put under the control of the Interior Ministry, national, mosque-centered network of komitehs (local and its ties to the Revolutionary Guard were cut. 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Secret at the same time, The Constitution gives the Revolutionary Guard re- sponsibility for exporting the revolution in addition to its security functions. the International Relations Unit oversees the Guard's revolutionary duties and is responsible for contacts with liberation movements worldwide. Mem- bers of this unit receive specialized training and are posted to Iranian diplomatic missions abroad. They are charged with propagandizing on behalf of the Islamic revolution and with recruiting sympathetic Muslims. Those judged most dedicated are brought to Iran for religious and ideological indoctrination and paramilitary training. Lebanon is the primary target of Iran's attempt to export its Islamic revolution, and the Revolutionary Guard has been at the forefront of that effort. Besides the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, the 300 to 500 Revolutionary Guards in Lebanon are the principal means by which Iran has sought to unify rival Shia factions particularly the Hizballah-under its control: Lebanese Shias, ? Deliveries of small arms, ammunition, mortars, and rocket propelled grenades are made under Guard auspices. ? In addition to its military training mission, the Guard contingent in Lebanon has engaged in reli- gious and ideological proselytizing and indoctrina- tion to gain new converts to the fundamentalist cause. ? The Guard also plays an important role in social welfare and community health projects. responsibility for the Guard's religious morality pa- trols (Gasht-e Sarollah) was transferred to the komitehs. Guard leaders and some influential clerics have op- 25X1 posed the loss of the Guard's domestic security re- 25X1 sponsibilities. Guard leaders assert that they cannot fulfill their mandate to preserve the Islamic republic unless they can control domestic security operations. 25X1 25X1 We believe the reduction of the Guard's domestic security responsibilities indicates that Iranian leaders are wary of the consequences of investing too much power in any one element of the government. Ironical- ly, the result is to perpetuate the conflict between Revolutionary Guard leaders and the Intelligence Ministry over control of the internal security appara- tus. Competition among and within security and intelligence groups is likely to contribute to factional rivalries that risk undermining the chances of a 25X1 smooth succession when Khomeini dies. The Revolutionary Guard as a Military Force Iran's goal to create a revolutionary Islamic army built around the IRGC has been tempered by the exigencies of the war with Iraq. After the ouster of the Shah, the revolutionary leadership announced plans to create a mass militia to replace the regular army. Domestic unrest and the outbreak of the war with Iraq forced the new regime to abandon this course and bring the army back to full strength. Still suspicious of the armed forces' loyalty, the regime expanded the military role of the Revolutionary Guard, forming combat units that would both aug- ment and rival the regular military Guard combat units initially suffered the same defi- ciencies as the Guard's civilian components. Inade- quate organization, lack of training and discipline, 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Profile of a Revolutionary Guard The majority of the Guard's rank and file is drawn from the younger, uneducated lower class-specifi- cally the urban poor. It is the Guard's 'permanent cadre' -those who choose service with the Guard as a career-however, who provide the basis for its considerable power and influence in Iran. Members of the permanent cadre are generally better educated and come from all segments of Iranian society. For both groups, the Islamic revolution and, more partic- ularly, membership in the Revolutionary Guard have a powerful attraction and offer significant political and personal opportunities. We believe that, in most cases, an individual joins the Guard for a variety of reasons. The following profile is a composite, intend- ed to portray the more "typical" characteristics of a Revolutionary Guard: ? Age: Mid-twenties to early thirties. ? Family background: Comes from a Shia family that has been found to be ideologically and politi- cally "acceptable" as a result of a Revolutionary Guard background investigation. A family member or close relative has been "martyred"-killed in the war with Iraq or died under other suitably "revolutionary" circumstances. Was recruited from among Hezbollahis (Party of God)-loosely organized street gangs acting as self-appointed religious and revolutionary law enforcers. ? Social and economic status: Belongs to the lower class or lower middle class. Saw little evidence of, or few prospects for, upward mobility under the Shah. Believes the clerical regime will eventually lead to a more equitable social order, but is prepared to take advantage of opportunities for personal gain in the meantime. ? Education: Secondary level formal education, sup- plemented by extensive religious and political in- doctrination by mullahs and Revolutionary Guard cadre. ? Military training: One to three months of initial military training focusing on light weapons, basic infantry tactics. More specialized training available to brighter, better educated Guards include artil- lery, armor, air defense, naval warfare, or flight courses. ? Military experience: Has had several tours at the front and has participated in a variety of operations from counterinsurgency campaigns against the Kurds to large-scale offensives against Iraq. Repu- tation as a zealous, aggressive fighter is well de- served, as is reputation for lack of discipline in combat. ? Other characteristics: Advocates radical positions on most issues affecting the Islamic republic, espe- cially aggressive prosecution of the war with Iraq, virulent opposition to the United States, and contin- ued export of the revolution. Idealistic zeal is mixed with opportunism. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Secret and a chronic shortage of funds and equipment hampered their performance. To improve the Guard's combat capability the regime ordered the army to provide training and logistic support We estimate the Revolutionary Guard has between 125,000 to 175,000 combat personnel. F_ 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 As the Guard gained experience in the war against Iraq, it improved its capabilities as well as its prestige within the regime. Equipped primarily for guerrilla and light infantry operations, Guard forces often bore the brunt of the fighting and acquired a reputation for aggressiveness. The Guard emerged as a serious com- bat force in 1981, regaining occupied Iranian territory when the regular army's conventional armored coun- terattacks failed. As a consequence, the Guard was given additional military responsibilities and assumed an increasingly influential role in decisionmaking on the war. It increased its abilities to counter the army in the event of an internal struggle as well. Organization and Manpower. The demands of the war have led Tehran to expand the Guard's combat role and gradually to shape it along more conventional military lines. Guard combat units are arranged in a fairly standard organizational structure-divisions, brigades, battal- ions, and companies. There are at least 19 Guard divisions and probably more than 46 brigades, most of which are subordinate to the divisions. At times, several divisions have been noted under the operation- al control of one of several Revolutionary Guard corps-level headquarters, but we believe this subordi- nation is temporary and changes with operational needs at the front. More often, command and control is exercised by joint Revolutionary Guard/army headquarters activated to provide coordination during larger offensive operations. Although IRGC forces are primarily light infantry, there are possibly as many as three armored or mechanized infantry divisions. In addition, some divi- sions have their own artillery, commando, and air defense units, experienced and best equipped troops. men, and a typical brigade is manned by 2,000 to 3,000 soldiers. With few exceptions, these forces are deployed along the front and include the IRGC's most each IRGC division has from 6,000 to 8,000 IRGC combat units are augmented by Basij-"Mobi- lization of the Oppressed"-forces. Recruited, trained, and led by the Revolutionary Guard, the Basij is a mass militia that was created in 1979 in response to Ayatollah Khomeini's call for a 20- million-man army to defend against a possible US invasion and later to fight Iraq. The number of Basij combat personnel on active duty fluctuates with oper- ational needs at the front, and masses of volunteers are called up and sent to the front in preparation for major offensives, according to Iranian press reports. We estimate that there are at least 100,000 Basij on frontline combat duty at any given time and probably more than 400,000 available for mobilization. F_ Until recently, nearly all Revolutionary Guard per- sonnel were strongly motivated volunteers who chose the Guard as a career. Individual motives differed considerably, however, Some would enlist out of revolutionary fervor or ideological commitment to the Islamic revo- lution. Others sought to take advantage of the special benefits-higher pay than the regular military, status, political or economic advantages-associated with membership in the Guard. Career or "permanent" Guards-the core of the IRGC-are generally recruited through the families of "martyrs" and among the radical street gangs, 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 The larger combat role of the IRGC and the growing war weariness of the Iranian populace are causing problems for the Guard's voluntary enlistment pro- grams. Apparently starting in 1984, conscripts have been assigned to fill rank-and-file positions in the IRGC, An Iranian press report in June 1986 indicated that government agencies and employees were "duty- bound" to comply with IRGC "requests" for person- nel required to fill key positions. The Revolutionary Guard and Basij in Combat. Dur- ing the first two years of the war, the Revolutionary Guard and Basij acquired a well-deserved reputation as a fanatic, aggressive, but ill-trained and undisci- plined combat force. In contrast to the Guard's early successes are some notable failures caused by lack of training, inadequate weapons and supplies, and poor coordination with regular military forces: ? In March 1984, Revolutionary Guard and Basij units involved in the spring offensive to capture the Majnoon Islands suffered high casualties-includ- ing the near total loss of a 12,000-man combined Guard/Basij force that spearheaded the attack. An investigative commission tentatively concluded that the regular army commander had failed to provide adequate support and termed his conduct "deliber- ate sabotage." ? During the "Badr" offensive to cut the Baghdad-Al Basrah road on the west bank of the Hawr al Hawizah in 1985, at least 30,000 Iranian soldiers- mostly Basij and Revolutionary Guards-were killed. Many of these deaths were attributable to poor planning, logistic problems, and poor coordina- tion between regular and irregular forces, Improving Performance. The regime has tried various measures to bring Revolutionary Guard training more in line with that of the regular military. armor, artillery, and pilot training have expanded since the war began. In 1984, Tehran created a joint military organization composed of senior Ground Forces, Navy, and Air Force officers to formalize and coordi- nate Guard training. The IRGC has established its own advanced officer training course, Army technicians also are occasionally attached to Revolutionary Guard units for up to six months as instructors in communications, electronics, and advanced weapon systems. Tehran has attempted to remedy the Guard's shortage of weapons and supplies by giving it priority in weapons procurement. Although the Guard is still primarily a light infantry force, it is receiving much, probably most, of the Soviet-designed tanks, artillery, and other Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 military equipment captured from Iraq or supplied by North Korea, China, Libya, and Eastern Europe. The Guard has also conducted an aggressive effort to purchase arms and equipment abroad since at least 1982. Finally, the clerical leadership has attempted to im- prove coordination between the Revolutionary Guard and Basij units and the regular armed forces. Joint operational headquarters, low-level joint training of battalion-size units, and closer cooperation between regular and irregular forces in planning as well as executing operations are among the specific steps the regime as ordered a wider integration of regular and irregu- lar forces, including the transfer of large numbers of army personnel to Revolutionary Guard units. In our judgment, these changes have made the Revo- lutionary Guard a more effective military force. It has learned from its defeats, improved its operational skills, tightened discipline and control among its own combat units and attached Basij troops, and increased its cooperation with regular army forces. In September 1985, Ayatollah Khomeini announced publicly that ground, naval, and air branches would be formally established within the IRGC and ordered 25X1 the Ground Forces, Navy, and Air Force to assist in organizing and equipping these units. headquarters and training areas for 25X1 the new Guard branches were established at facilities near Tehran, and arrangements were made to transfer Guard personnel to sections of all major Air Force units. 25X1 25X1 9 X1 25X1 The Guard's senior headquarters has also been reor- ganized, probably to improve its ability to oversee and direct the IRGC's expanded military duties. 0 7FX1 a Joint Staff (Sepah-e 25X1 Keshvari) has been established to take over the duties of the Central Staff and facilitate the expansion of 25X1 IRGC military units, including the new air and naval branches. We believe the Revolutionary Guard's role in plan- ning war strategy has increased significantly in the 25X1 past year, 25X1 25X1 25X1 Creating an "Army of the Revolution. " In our judg- ment, the regime intends the Revolutionary Guard to become the core of a new "army of the revolution" that will eventually replace the regular armed forces. Khomeini has long given at least tacit endorsement to such a proposal, in part because he and other Iranian leaders continue to doubt the loyalty of the military. Tehran's original plans to replace the regular military with Guard forces were disrupted by Kurdish rebel- lions and the war with Iraq, but considerable progress has been made toward that objective in recent years. Factionalism and the Guard. In our judgment, the Revolutionary Guard's future cohesiveness and viabil- ity as the primary military force of the Islamic republic will be undermined by political factionalism. Despite the Guard's institutionalization, the clerical Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 'actional alliances and infight- leadership's tightened control over its activities, and the apparent unity of purpose within the Revolution- ary Guard, we believe it is highly susceptible to infighting and external factional pressures. nternal infighting and factionalism within the Guard are growing. A wide variety of issues, ranging from broad ideological disputes to more narrow political or even personal disagreements, is involved: ? Veterans who have been with the Guard since 1979 are increasingly disillusioned with the progress of the revolution. The more idealistic deplore Iran's ineffective war strategy and what they see as "un- Islamic" power plays and government corruption in Tehran. Others resent being forced to serve multiple tours on the front while giving up the economic and political benefits of nonmilitary service with the Guard. We believe that Ayatollah Khomeini's ability to resolve such disputes and dampen factionalism within the Guard has declined because of his deteriorating health. ing have undermined the fierce loyalty to Khomeini that used to be the Guard's principal unifying force. In our judgment, factionalism within the Guard will gain momentum as the clerical leadership continues its efforts to redefine the Guard's internal security role and expand its military responsibilities. This, along with the decline-or absence-of Khomeini's influence, suggests that infighting will become more intense and disputes more difficult to resolve. If more open political infighting among other groups and factions within the regime occurs, the likelihood of armed clashes in the Guard will increase. Outlook-The Guard in Post-Khomeini Iran In our judgment, the Revolutionary Guard will re- main an important factor in Iranian politics after Khomeini's death. Despite the reduction of its internal security duties, the Ministry of the Revolutionary Guard will continue to serve as a primary guardian of the ideals of the Islamic revolution, and it is likely to maintain, or even try to expand, its domestic intelli- gence network. With its expanded military role and improved combat capabilities, the IRGC is likely to play a major role in the transition of power once Khomeini is gone. We believe there are cracks in this "pillar" of the Islamic republic that may contribute to another up- heaval in Iran. Factionalism and political infighting would significantly reduce the Guard's ability to maintain order during the post-Khomeini transition. The Guard's institutional cohesion would be strained and could break down as those vying for power in the government seek the support of elements within the Guard. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 25X1 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Figure 9 Iran: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Joint Staff Organization Ironically, the regime's efforts to avoid giving one organization full control of Iran's domestic security and intelligence apparatus could seriously undermine the government's ability to ensure a smooth succes- sion. So far the clerical leadership has managed to check opposition to its restructuring of these services, but this is probably because of Khomeini's extraordi- nary ability to command loyalty and compliance from his subordinates. Revolutionary Guard Minister Rafiq-Dust and Intelligence Minister Reyshahri, for example, both owe their positions to Khomeini and derive their power directly from him as well as from their strong connections to other prominent clergy and government leaders. When Khomeini dies, loyalty to his memory probably will not be enough to prevent various factions from attempting to suborn the coun- try's security apparatus. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Factions Within the Revolutionary Guard The Revolutionary Guard, like most large national institutions with a diverse membership, is not an ideologically monolithic organization. Although fa- natical loyalty to Ayatollah Khomeini and zealous propagation of the ideals of the Islamic revolution are characteristics that apply to the Guard generally, within the Guard there are several different factions. Each of these groups has its own interpretation of the fundamental role and purpose of the Guard, and competition among them for control of the Guard's direction is growing, to the ultraconservative Hojatieh Society, suggest- ing important links to upper and middle ranks of the bureacracy, the judiciary, and the security forces as well as technocrats and bazaar merchants. ? Radicals: We believe this is the dominant faction within the Revolutionary Guard. It is composed of those who support a hardline policy on the war, aggressive export of the revolution, and greater government control over the economy. This faction is fiercely loyal to Khomeini, and in a post-Khomei- ni power struggle it would probably align itself with radical religious and secular leaders. We believe there are three or four major groups, but factional coalitions and loyalties are highly fluid: ? Conservatives and Moderates: Revolutionary Guards who generally favor a far less aggressive prosecution of-if not a negotiated end to-the war with Iraq. They seek to limit government involve- ment in the economy and oppose violent export of the revolution. This group is probably the most anti-Soviet, but it is also suspicious of the United States. It is aligned with President Khamenei. C this faction also in cludes Revolutionary Guards who secretly belong Similarly, the emergence of the IRGC as a serious military force could prove a double-edged sword for the regime. By its nature the Guard is far from being a "professional," nonpolitical military organization, and after Khomeini's death it will be increasingly vulnerable to factional pressures and political infight- ing. Should the succession struggle in Tehran turn violent, we believe those vying for power will look to their allies in Guard combat units for armed support and order them back from the front. Such a move would significantly escalate the political conflict and raise the chances of all-out civil war. ? Pragmatists: Members of this group maneuver be- tween the two other factions, for the most part choosing policies they believe advance the Guard's interests-and their own careers. The Guard is split along "generational" lines as well, The "old Guards" who have worked in the organization for six or seven years have gained experience and expertise and are now prone to question regime policies. The "new Guards" who have been brought in within the last two or three years tend to carry out their orders unquestioningly. There is a better than even chance that the regime will face serious instability after Khomeini is gone. Although the point at which such instability would become a threat to the regime's existence cannot be precisely predicted, we believe that the Guard's vul- nerability to factional infighting will quickly reduce its ability to maintain order or keep the regime intact. 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Implications for the United States On the basis of our analysis, we believe the Revolu- tionary Guard has been-and remains-a source of virulent anti-US sentiment in Iran. Its anti-US rheto- ric reflects deeply ingrained attitudes and beliefs that are not likely to change. We believe the Guard will be a major obstacle to the renewal of US-Iranian rela- tions in the post-Khomeini era as long as it retains significant influence in the government: ? Any efforts by Khomeini's successor to improve relations with the United States would alienate major elements of the Guard and would increase the prospect of the Guard joining in a major power struggle. ? In the event a post-Khomeini power struggle leads to serious upheaval in Iran, the Guard is likely to back the more radical factions vying for power. ? Although opportunism among some Guard leaders may eventually lead them to expand ties to Western nations other than the United States-primarily to replenish arms and acquire needed spare parts-we believe these contacts will be closely monitored and limited to protect the Guard's political and ideologi- cal integrity as a pillar and agent of the Islamic revolution. We believe the Guard's intense animosity toward the United States also makes it more prone to supporting improved relations with the Soviet Union and its allies, especially if the Guard believes the regime or its own position are seriously threatened. Such a move would be a pragmatic effort to expand and improve the Guard's arms inventory by adding to the Soviet- designed weapons it has captured from Iraq or pur- chased from China, North Korea, Libya, and Syria: ? The emergence of a radical successor regime with Guard support would provide an opportunity for significantly expanded Soviet influence in Iran, possibly prompting Moscow to consider relaxing its embargo on the sale of major weapon systems to Iran. ? Serious instability resulting from a post-Khomeini power struggle also would increase Soviet opportu- nities to expand contacts with radicals in the Revo- lutionary Guard who would view this connection as a way to protect both the revolution and their own power. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Appendix Protectors of the Revolution: A Sampler of Enforcement Groups Official Agencies In addition to the Revolutionary Guard, the komitehs and the Qazi (Judicial) Police stand out among the multitude of revolutionary and religious law enforce- ment groups that sprang up during the revolution. Both have been recognized by the central government and given a nationwide mandate through a formal charter. They complement and monitor the police and Gendarmerie-the traditional civil law enforcement agencies in Iran-which are controlled by the Interior Ministry: ? Komitehs: An autonomous, national, mosque-cen- tered network that was put under the control of the Interior Ministry in 1984. The komitehs' 30,000- man paramilitary force-the Komiteh Guards-is considered a law, order, and security enforcement agency alongside the police. Komitehs are responsi- ble for many of the so-called special-purpose patrols designed to ensure public conformity to Islamic and revolutionary mores. ? Qazi (Judicial) Police: A group of highly select and specially trained individuals, this agency was formed in 1982 to ensure correct implementation of religious law. The Qazi Police operate under the Justice Ministry and closely monitor the entire judicial system to prevent incompetence and impi- ety. We estimate they number fewer than 5,000, are generally well educated, and have records of reliable service in other law enforcement agencies. Unofficial Organizations The revolution also spawned a wide variety of groups that have not received the central government's seal of approval through formal inclusion in the bureaucracy, but which have become part of Iran's ubiquitous domestic security network. The Iranian press has accurately noted that at any given time there are too many independent street patrols and watchdog units to be counted. Among the more notorious are: private gangs attached to influential bazaaris and clerics. They are used by individuals trying to influence government policies and by government figures to intimidate the populace. ? Anjoman-e Islami (Islamic Societies): Organized within almost every segment of society to urge individual Iranians to observe and report on those around them. ? Jondollah (Army of God) Forces: Composed of army, Gendarmerie, Revolutionary Guard, and Basij personnel, these groups were formed in 1983 to seek out draft dodgers and monitor the loyalty of personnel within the military and law enforcement agencies. We believe Jondallah units are loosely organized along military lines and probably number between 4,000 and 5,000 men. ? Sarollah (Revenge of God): An all-male religious morality police that used to be controlled by the Revolutionary Guard, but whose functions have ostensibly been the responsibility of the komitehs and the police since 1985. Sarollah patrols quickly developed a reputation for brutality, which probably led to the regime's efforts to curtail their activity. ? Khahari-ye Zahra (Sisters of Zahra): Religious morality squads composed of armed females who patrol cities in vehicles. Zahra was probably formed because of protests against the Sarollah and may have been absorbed into the Ershad patrols in 1985. ? Khahari-ye Zaineb (Sisters of Zaineb): Mixed male-female religious morality patrols that may also have been formed in response to complaints of misconduct by Sarollah units; also may have been absorbed into the Ershad patrols. ? Ershad (Guidance) Patrols: Mixed male-female reli- gious morality patrols, some of which use vehicles marked with the insignia of the Islamic courts. ? Hezbollahi (Party of God): Ill-defined bands that exist throughout Iran but have no known national leadership or organized structure. They seem to be Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Figure 10 Iran: Revolutionary Guard Organizational Structure Corps and Ministry believed to have dual responsibility for Basij Internal Security forces District Bases Ministry Corps Support role Minister Mohsert _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Commander Deputy for Administration and Finance Deputy for Logistics and Engineering Deputy for Parliament and Legal F F Formation/ training Planning and operations Engineering Support units Supplies and logistics Training Naval wing Politico- ideological Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0 Secret Secret Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/26: CIA-RDP88T00096R000400520002-0