INTELLIGENCE ALERT MEMORANDUM: POSSIBLE CONFLICT IN THE AEGEAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-263-2-48-5
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: October 8, 2010
• Sequence Number: 48
• Publication Date: April 4, 1975
• Content Type: MEMO

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No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/10/08: LOC-HAK-263-2-48-5
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No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/10/08: LOC-HAK-263-2-48-5
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THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
4 April 1975
MEMORANDUM FOR: The Honorable Henry A. Kissinger
Assistant to the President
(National Security Affairs)
SUBJECT intelligence Alert Memorandum:
Possible Conflict in the Aegean
1. As the attached roundup indicates, Greek-Turkish tension
over the Aegean is at a dangerous level.
2. We continue to believe that both governments, in their
rational calculations, want to. avoid the dangerous and essentially
unpredictable situation of large-scale hostilities over this issue.
Indeed, we would estimate that the chances are against either side
deliberately deciding to initiate war.
3. What is equally important, we think that each government
credits the other with a desire to avoid serious conflict over this
issue. At the same time, each government is aware of political
limitations on the other at home, of the fact that there are some
hawks on the other side, and that rational calculations may not
always prove controlling.
4. Indeed, there may be some sentiment in Turkey
for launching a pre-emptive strike.against Greece -- before the
Turkish military capability declines too far as a result of Turkey's
inability to obtain armaments. We do not think this reasoning pre-
vails in the Turkish government. However, it cannot be entirely
discounted as a factor. In any case, the Turks are concerned about
Greek reinforcements of certain Aegean Islands, and some days ago
made a formal demarche to the signatories of the 1947 Paris Treaty
pointing out these violations.
5. Meanwhile, the readiness of both sides to play "chicken,"
to keep testing each other's resolve -- e.g., by Turkish overflights
classified by 014522
Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category $6(1),(2),(31
Automatically declassified on
Date Impossible to Determine
SECRET
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of the islands and Greek shooting at the overflights -- could easily
bring them into explosive confrontation in which neither side felt
strong enough to back down.
6. The Intelligence Community is keeping this situation under
orces on a egean s , the Embassy in Ankara, is
being prepared in CIA and DIA. The attached current intelligence
roundup gives the highlights of the situation at the moment.
7. This memorandum has been discussed with offices in CIA,
DIA, State/INR and NSA, and they are in agreement.
SECRET
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Greek, Turkish Actions Foster
Likelihood of Serious Incidents
The prospect of a serious incident in the Aegean
Sea is growing as Greece and Turkey appear increasingly
ready to take risks in backing up their conflicting
claims in the area.
Our embassy in Athens was informed by the Greek
government that two Turkish aircraft violated Greek
airspace yesterday, as another 18 Turkish planes flew
a patrol nearby. Greek aircraft in the area were
ordered by higher authorities not to engage the
Turkish planes. Antiaircraft batteries on the islands
opened fire, but did not hit the Turkish planes.
The Turks are said to be planning "strong
retaliatory action" to any Greek attempts to inter-
cept Turkish aircraft.
A 2X1
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over the Greek islands in the eastern Aegean were
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~ the flights are likely to continue. The Turks-
are said to be seeking the locations of Greek military
concentrations on the islands in order to retaliate
with bombing if the Greeks open fire on Turkish planes.
The Turkish press has stepped up its coverage of
the Greek reinforcement of the Aegean islands, and
government officials have protested Greek action in
fortifying some of them.
The Aegean issue could prove to be a strong
rallying point for a new Turkish government because
it is a problem that transcends factional differences.
An insight into Turkish attitudes toward Greece is
provided by
Aegean command. 25X6
hotoreconnaissance missions.
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In addition, an army-level Aegean command has
reportedly been set up at Izmir. It would facilitate
the rapid movement of troops and improve command and
control in the event of a confrontation with Greece.
SECRET
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No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/10/08: LOC-HAK-263-2-48-5