CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-544-2-17-7
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: August 16, 2010
• Sequence Number: 17
• Publication Date: November 3, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

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Too Secret
Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Dept review
completed.
MORI/CDF per
C03029434
Top Secret
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3 November 1973,
Central Intelligence Bulletin
CONTENTS
ARAB STATES - ISRAEL: Talk of resumption ofhostili-
ties continues. Page 1)
WESTERN EUROPE -- MIDDLE EAST: Prospects still poor
for coordinate action to deal with oil crisis.
(Page 4)
CANADA-OIL: Ottawa moves to ensure crude oil imports
from the Persian Gulf (Page .11)
NATIONALIST CHINA - SOUTH KOREA: Both governments
take-steps to ensure oil supplies. (Page 12)
BANGLADESH: Opposition to Mujib increasing. (Page 14)
FOR THE RECORD: (Page 16)
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EARAB STATES - ISRAEL: The cease-fire is being
honored on both fronts, but talk of the resumption
of hostilities is being heard on each side.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Fahmi informed the US
and the UN yesterday that Cairo has agreed to allow
US military aircraft to overfly and land in Egypt in
connection with UN Emergency Force (UNEF) operations.
Some observers believe that Egyptian efforts are
now directed more toward bolstering Cairo" military
position than reinforcing the cease-fir
(continued)
3 Nov 73
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,The UN Security Council last night authorized
troops from Canada, Poland, Panama, Nepal, Ghana,
Peru, and Indonesia to join the UN Middle East
peacekeeping force. The Canadian and Polish con-
tribution will consist of logistic units only.
Agreement by the Council on this compromise broke
the stalemate over whether to allow Warsaw Pact
and NATO members to participate in the UNEF.
Elsewhere on the diplomatic front, President
Sadat executed some quick summitry earlier this week
in a whirlwind trip to Kuwait, where he conferred
with President Asad and Kuwait's Shaykh Sabah, after
which he flew to Riyadh for a meeting with King Fay-
sal0 The results of Foreign Minister Fahmi's talks
in Washington and coordination of plans for next
week's discussions with Secretary Kissinger were the
main items on the agenda. Upon his return, Sadat
also met with Algerian President Boumediene. Details
on the meeting have not been released, but the Alge-
rian leader--unhappy with Egypt's acceptance of the
cease-fire--may have tried to persuade Sadat to take
a hard position on Israeli withdrawal, and perhaps
even to renew hostilities.
Central Intelligence Bulln
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According to an article from Beirut's An-Nahar
published earlier this week, various Palestinian
circles have suggested that one of the following
proposals on representation be adopted:
--a provisional Palestinian government be
formed to represent the Palestinian people;
--a high-level delegation from the Palestinian
Liberation Organization (PLO) represent the
body of Palestinian people; or
--the PLO appoint independent Palestinian
figures to attend the conference.
The press account goes on to say that the entire
issue of participation at the conference will be
studied at an extraordinary session of the Pales-
tinian National Council to be held soon, perhaps
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WESTERN EUROPE. - MIDDLE EAST: antra-European
rivalries and the uneven effects of the Arab oil
cutbacks make prospects seem poor for early and
concerted action by the Europeans to deal with the
oil crisis. Tensions between effectively embargoed
states and those with more ample supplies may, in
fact, increase. There are signs of growing pres-
sures from some quarters for a united response,
which may provoke a serious confrontation within
the EC.
The oil problem will be on the agenda of an
EC Council meeting on 5-6 November, and Middle East
political developments will also be taken up at a
separate ad hoc session of the foreign ministers
"on the margins" of their council meeting. The
Dutch--singled out for an Arab oil boycott--have
requested joint community measures, including EC
sharing of oil supplies, and are ready to hold
other areas of community policy-making hostage to
positive action on oil. The EC Commission, however,
has so far only been able to agree to propose a
community system of export licensing for petroleum
products--which could allow The Hague to limit such
exports to other EC members as an emergency step.
More far-reaching measures are viewed warily by
several of the Netherlands' partners who fear that
sharing arrangements could bring down Arab wrath
on them.
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Hasty EC action thus seems unlikely and a common
stand is also doubtful at a scheduled Council ses-
sion.on energy policy on 21 November. Concern is
nevertheless mounting about the possible consequences
of a prolonged cutback in oil supplies, and community
members may find it increasingly difficult to square
their professions of the need for European solidarity--
given prominence most recently by President Pompidou's
call for a summit of the Nine--with reluctance to act
on a concrete problem. Belgium's temptation, for
example, to distance itself from the Dutch in deal-
ing bilaterally with Arab suppliers will be countered
by. Belgian concern over maintaining its Benelux and
EC links, as well as its dependence on the Rotterdam-
Antwerp pipeline and Dutch natural gas. The Dutch
economics minister, in fact, suggested in parliament
this week that The Hague might transfer natural gas
in return for oil.
The British are unenthusiastic about the Dutch
request for EC oil sharing, but there are some within
the government who would go along with the demand..
Prime Minister Heath, in an interview published yes-
terday, called for a common EC energy policy, but
excluded future North Sea oil from an EC oil-sharing
arrangement. The US Embassy believes that Heath will
ultimately stick by EC commitments and support a
determined Dutch request. Amid growing anxiety in
West Germany over the Arab oil threat, including a
new Libyan warning of a possible oil cut-off, a gov-
ernment spokesman yesterday said Bonn assumes that
the oil crisis "will be met with an all-European
action" at next week's community meetings.
Oil sharing is also on the agenda of the OECD
Oil Committee's High Level Group session on 19 Novem-
ber. Despite a consensus of Oil Committee members
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last week that their economies would be seriously
threatened should the supply shortfalls continue for
more than a brief period, there was evident fear of
the potential reaction of the Arabs to some formal
action such as reactivating the OECD's oil-industry
advisory body. The OECD secretary general is, never-
theless, asking the'members to consider whether the
meeting of the High-Level Group should not be held
earlier. The US attitude toward participation in
oil-sharing schemes may be a decisive influence on
European efforts within both the community and the
OECD. NATO, meanwhile, is preparing for a possible
study of the economic and financial consequences for
.the alliance of Arab use of the "oil weapon."
On the EC political front, the nine foreign
ministers may attempt to frame another common decla-
ration on a Middle East peace settlement at their
meeting next week. According to an Italian Foreign
Ministry source, however, events in the Middle East
are outpacing the EC consultations and are likely
to render outmoded anything the Nine have to say.
An existing draft declaration generally endorses
Security Council resolutions and emphasizes that
any negotiations must take place within the UN
framework. The Italians would also like the Nine
to take up contributions they might eventually make
toward juridical:.and military guarantees in the
region, as well as toward economic assistance to
the war-ravaged areas. Any new declaration is
likely to be bland, however, because of continuing
differences among the Nine over how their interests
would be affected by a forthright stand. The French
and British also have a lingering belief in the
efficacy of their own diplomacy. Heath, for ex-
ample, while approving a."European role" in the
search for a Middle East settlement, told an in-
terviewer yesterday that this may still be a matter
for "private" diplomacy rather than "public initia-
tives." Whatever comes out of next week's foreign
ministers' session, the fact that Paris has appar-
ently agreed to hold these political consultations
in the same locale as the formal EC Council session
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represents a concession from the normal French in-
sistence that community matters be rigidly separated
from "politics."
Pompidou's call earlier this week for a summit
reflects the urgency of a European response to the
Middle East situation, but may also have the effect
of deferring concrete proposals until the heads of
government can meet. The Danish Prime Minister has
now.invited the Nine to meet in Copenhagen on. 15-16
December.
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CANADA-OIL: Ottawa is acting to avert an in-
terruption of crude oil imports from the Persian
Gulf.
Canada probably will agree to Abu Dhabi's de-
mands for a written agreement that crude oil off-
loaded at Portland, Maine for pipeline transship-
ment to Montreal not be diverted for US consumption.
Abu Dhabi had refused to allow one Portland-bound
tanker to sail, claiming it would violate the coun-
try's embargo on crude oil exports to the US. Abu
Dhabi supplies Canada with about 61,000 barrels of
crude oil per day, equal to nearly 7 percent of
Canada's total crude imports.
Ottawa also is concerned about reports of sim-
ilar embargoes on Portland-bound shipments by Saudi
Arabia (which supplies about 7 percent of total im-
ports) and Kuwait (less than 1 percent). Canadian
diplomats intend to meet with officials of both
countries and probably will try to negotiate an
arrangement similar to that with Abu Dhabi.
Quebec and the Atlantic provinces in eastern
Canada are totally dependent on crude oil imports
to meet their demands. Persian Gulf producers sup-
ply 22 percent of Canada's total crude oil imports,
Venezuela 45 percent, Iran 18 percent, Nigeria 7
percent, and other suppliers the remaining 8 percent.
Canada has raised the export tax-on crude oil
from 40 cents to $1.90 per barrel. The tax, designed
to keep the price of Canadian oil in line with world
prices, will become effective in December. The
$1.50 increase, the 40 cent.tax imposed last month,
and four earlier increases in the posted price will
raise US prices for Canadian crude by $2.85 per
barrel above the level at the beginning of 1973.
The US currently imports almost 1.2 million
barrels per day from Canada or 33 percent of US
crude oil imports. The export tax added to a 40
cent per barrel Edmonton-to-Chicago transportation
charge will bring the average US price for Alberta
crude to $5.85 per barrel.
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NATIONALIST CHINA - SOUTH KOREA: Taipei and
Seoul are planning measures to ensure oil supplies
in the face of Arab oil cutbacks. Over 90 percent
of both countries' oil now comes from Arab countries,
and supplies are handled by the major Western oil
companies. It is still not clear how the Arab oil
cutbacks will affect Taiwan and South Korea, but
both are seeking to increase the amount of oil ob-
tained directly from producer countries, thereby
reducing their dependence on the major oil companies.
Taipei may attempt to increase the amount it pur-
chases directly from Middle East producers, although
it also hopes to increase imports of crude from other
regions. Seoul is considering setting up a state-
owned company to invest in oil-producing nations,
probably on a global basis. Both countries also
plan to expand domestic oil storage facilities to
boost reserve capacity, and to reduce oil consump-
tion by using more coal and limiting motor vehicle
use.
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BANGLADESH: The government's inability to main-
tain domestic security and to correct political and
economic abuses has generated growing opposition to
Prime Minister Mujibur Rahman.
Opposition groups have been increasing in number
and membership for some time as the government struggles
with inefficiency, corruption, and nepotism. They are
not only publicly criticizing Mujib, who until re-
cently has been immune to attacks, but are openl
demanding his ov
Lawlessness, especially in rural areas, now
rivals high prices and shortages of essential goods
as a major concern of both the government and the
populace. Recent successful attacks on over 20
police posts by armed groups seeking arms and am-
munition add a disturbing new element. Although
there has been a relatively high level of crime and
violence since independence, these attacks appear.
to be the work of politically motivated groups rather
than common criminals.
Mujib has responded by tightening security and
by moving directly against his opponents through
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denunciations, arrests, and, occasionally, physical
attacks by his paramilitary elements. Additionally,
last month.,the parliament, which is overwhelmingly
controlled by his party, passed a constitutional
amendment that provides for emergency powers and
preventive detention, thereby giving Mujib addi-
tional options for dealing with lawless elements
and regime opponents.
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FOR THE RECORD*
France: The head of the French Navy has an-
nounced- licly that France probably will construct
a sixth nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine.
Construction of this submarine could begin in early
1976, and it could be operational sometime in 1978.
Chile: Curfew restrictions in Santiago have
been tightened this weekend, probably on the assump-
tion that leftists will attempt to stage violent
disturbances in commemoration of the late president
Allende's inauguration on 4 November 1970. (C)
(continued)
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