MIDDLE EAST SITUATION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-262-1-27-0
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: September 23, 2009
• Sequence Number: 27
• Publication Date: November 1, 1974
• Content Type: CABLE

IJi> Ur N- No Objection To Declassification 2009/10/09: LOC-HAK-262-1-27-0
r"iYl rig 1't DAT ION ROOM
i'u Ailu; ilusASSY KAbUL
E i';
u r. C it E 1 SENSITIVE
ouLiYz'R/uui FErtT FUR THE SENUETARY
OSL ASKED THAT THE FOLLOWING BE SENT TU YOU:
i'E,i+iuirAN)DMM FGR: THE HONutABLE HENRY A. KISSINGER
ASSISTANT TO THE PRESIDENT FOR
NATIONAL SECURITY AF?FAIhS
aUr~JECi MIDDLE EAST SITUATION
1. IHE hAt$AT SUMMIT HAS GIVEN US CONSIDERABLE CAUSE
r?urt irluL0HT AbUUT THE PULITICAL-MILITARY SITUATION IN THE
tryiluuLE LAST. VIEWED FROM HERE, IT APPEARS THAT THE ARAB
oLGu1IAT INU POSITION HAS TAKEN A HARDER LINE, WITH PROSPECTS
iEDUOE.D FUR EARLY TALKS WITH THE ISRAELIS CONCENNING THE
wEBi bANK AND WITH SADAT'S ROOM FOR MANEUVER UN A SEPARATE
A n -Ni NI FOR THE RETURN OF MORE SINAI TEHRITURY RESTRICTED.
iiERE IS ALSO EVIDENCE OF A SHIFT TOWARD A HARDER LINE BY
S"hIeNS, WHO APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN THE DRIVING FORCE IN
5UrP..RT OF IRE PLO AT RABAT . Ii NEGUT IAT ING EFFORTS ARE STALLED,
MORI/CDF
C03301304
i;1E INIELLIUENCE COMMUNITY IS INTENSIFYING ITS ATTENTIONITY
to A F'uSSItLE RESUMPTION OF AhAb-ISRAELI HOSTILITIES. IN
i1ilEWFuio~ 41E EXPERIENCE IN OCTOBER 1973, THIS INCLUDES SPECI '`
AI EN1IDDF TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ARAB POLITICAL DENFE,PTION TO
( VER PLANS FOR WAR. THE COLLECTION ELEMENTS OF THE COMMUNITY
A.-E; AL:au GIVINu PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO INDICATIONS OF ARAB
i'JLI AiiY PREPARATIONS. WE ALSO WILL tiE SENSITIVE TU POSSIBLE
ISRAELI Phi:.EMPT IuN.THE USIB NEXT WEEK WILL CONSIDER A DETAILED
SiUJY of ARAB AND ISRAELI MILITARY CAPABILITIES, INCLUDING
ALiEicNAiIVE SCENARIOS FOR THE OUTBREAK, GNDUCT AND OUTCOME
ur' h6ST IL IT IES.
:i 1iSIOWS WILL INCREASE AND THE ODDS FAVORING ANOTHER ROUND
ur AAAo-IStiAELI FIGHTING WILL GU UP.
wr: EXPECT To LEARN MORE ABOUT WHAT WENT UN AT RABAT
liJ riE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE MIMI-SUMMIT IN ALGIERS THIS
WEEKENL CuUL1) HELP CLARIFY THE SITUATION. IN THE MEANTIME,
iHESE MEASURES SHOULD PUT US IN AN IMPROVED POSIT ION
1'O UETESCi A [`MOVE TOWARD WAR IN THE COMING WEEKS. THE FACT,
i.WEVEH, THAT BOTH SIDES ARE AT A FAIRLY HIGH LEVEL OF ALERT
w1ih SL:.)STANTIAL FOrtCES CLOSE TO THE DISENGAGEMENT LINES
P AN THAT,IONCE A DECISION IS MADE TO RENEW HOSTILITIES,
i i i E WILL NUT BE MUCH WARNING TIME.
No Objection To Declassification 2009/10/09: LOC-HAK-262-1-27-0