INTELLIGENCE ALERT MEMORANDUM: BANGLADESH

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-105-8-17-8
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: March 8, 2010
• Sequence Number: 17
• Publication Date: November 8, 1975
• Content Type: MEMO

No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/03/08: LOC-HAK-105-8-17-8
MEMORANDUM FOR2 Assistant to the President (National. Security Affairs)
SUBJECT lntelIigence Alert Memorandum: Bangle ash
T
November 8, 197
The attached memorandum on the deteriorating s3.tuat'ion in
Bangladesh explains why we believe the chances of Indiai,arilitary'
Intervention have increased substantially in the last 24 hours.
W W. E. Colby ,
Copy No. 2 - Secretary of State
3 -.Secretary of Defense
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELUGENCE
WASHINGTON. D. C. 20503
25X1
s n G r r 25X1
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 e~at~rr.~r
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November 8, 19.75
INTELLIGENCE ALERT MEMORANDUM
25X1
SUBJECT: Deteriorating Situation in Bangladesh and Increasing Possibility
of .Indian intervention .
}
The situation within the armed forces in Bangladesh ~Zs
deteriorating. Unless 'promptly contained, 'it could lead in
short order to civil war in Bangladesh, an exodus of ref?`ugeea
across the border to India, and result in open Indian mvZitary
intervcntio".
I. The normal command structure of the armed forces has been disrupted
v-1th junior officers and enlisted men reportedly making demands of their
seniors, even of the new strong man, Major General Zia ur-Rabman. Some of
these mutinous groups appear to be radical'in orientation, and rumors in
Dacca suggest that some may be operating under Indian influence.
2. During November 8, we have received.the following ittformation.
-- A `report ~>e new govern- 25X1
tent has arrested "25 percent" of the Bangladesh army officer corps
and confined theva to the Dacca Army Cantonment. 'Many of these officers
are believed to be supporters of Major General Mushsirra~, killed on
November 7. v' 1 .
-- The Dacca press has labelled the overthrow of M .
"se o (enlisted man) mutiny."
SECRET
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economy and government. I "
--- The senior Bangladesh military representative in. New Delhi
has warned that if the eight majors who participated in; the August 15
coup against Muf ibur Rahman return to "Dacca from their jaxile In
Bangkok, the likelihood of Indian intervention will increase markedly.
(Our latest information is that the majors are still in l Bangkok. )
S E C R E T
-- Another report) !indicates 25X1
that a group of lower ran ng officers and enlisted men, calling
themselves the,Revolutionary Military Council, met with General
Zia on November g and made a number of demands, inciudi'ng the
release of all political prisoners, egalitarian treatment of officers
and enlisted-men, and an ill-defined restructuring of the country's
the government placed 25X1
Border Security Force on alert on November 7 after Zia : ssumed power.
the Eastern an (headquartered in Calcutta) and the, paramilitary
Indian leaders foresee a seriou~ possibility 25X1
of civil war In Bangladesh and a breakdown of public orIer, a flow of
refugees into India, and the necessity for eventual military inter-
-_ have been received that ?ndian troops,
possibly up to 4UV in number, were operating a few milep over the
border into Bangladesh' in the northern and northwestern ; rectors on
November 7 and 8. These reports also allege that aircrAft -- presumably
of the-Indian Air Force --- violated Bangladesh airspace on November 7.
3. We doubt that India as yet has decided to intervene1militarily in
San;ladcsh. Domestically, Prime Minister Gandhi, following ter victory in
court, is in a strong position. She has no need at present of a foreign
victory to enhance her prestige at home. Therefore, we judgq that she
will not deliberately embark on intervention for internal political purposes.
India's foreign relations would also argue against intervention -- at least
until a good case could be made for it, such as would be furnished by a
large movement of refugees into India. India's awareness that there would
be a strong negative reaction from other countries, especiall:,y from the
Muslim world, to intervention would be a major deterrent to precipitate
action. Indian spokesmen have repeatedly warned, however, that the nation
cannot be unconcerned over events in Bangladesh, and that chaos in that
country followed by m movement of refugees into India, would force New
Delhi to intervene regardless of the consequences. New Delhi has also warned
that India would intervene if Bangladesh proclaimed itself an, Islamic state.
S ECRET
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2- I
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S E C R E T
4. All elements of the intelligence community have plat d their
collection resources on full alert to watch for and report any movements
or preparations for movement by Indian military units toward Bangladesh.
While we have. no Defense Attache in Bangladesh,-we have also asked all
agencies to collect information on possible Indian support --1overt or
covert --ito one or another of the factions within Bangladesh. In the
5. This memorandum has been coordinated among the Central Intelligence
Agency, the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Bureau of Intelligence and
Research of the Department of State, and the National Security Agency.
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/03/08: LOC-HAK-105-8-17-8