ANALYSIS OF ARAB-ISRAELI DEVELOPMENTS SITREP NO. 17, 0100 ACAPULCO TIME, DECEMBER 27, 1976

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-545-5-15-5
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: January 4, 2013
• Sequence Number: 15
• Publication Date: December 27, 1976
• Content Type: CABLE

I.
f-ilf#, At 47,4
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04: LOC-HAK-545-5-15-5 44.
e-11 :it
v.A tA 'AL.'
?-?
..4.2 4 ?
gl AL: ? t-t4 ;!?1 *.;,3;
2444-
4Rn DS 32{O(R)
_TOP SECRET
1
INR/RNA: M G BANWERMAN:1 H R SINDELAR
? 1E/26/76 EXT 21889
HSAUNDERS
? NEA:. ARDAY
SCAT ONLY
'IMMEDIATE
1
SECRETARY:
EXDIS CODEWORD CHANNEL
.E. O. 116521; ').C.GDS-2: ?
TAGS: LE
S /S-0 i
?? ?
MORI PER C03205476
. ?
SUBJECT: ANALYSIS OF ARAB'-ISRAELI DEVELOPMENTS
SITREP NO. 17, 0100 ACAPULCO TIME, DECEMBER 27, 1976
TOP SECRET UMBRA/HANDLE VIA COMINT CHANNELS ONLY
GAMMA CONTROLLED ITEM
1. AMBASSADOR EILTS HAS COMMENTED THAT ALTHOUGH REeENT
EGYPTIAN-SYRIAN DISCUSSIONS HAVE GREATLY IMPROVED
RELATIONS, HE DOUBTS THAT ALL SUSPICIONS HAVE BEEN
REMOVED. NEVERTHELESS, HE NOTED THAT THE TWO STATES
WERE LIKELY TO WORK TOGETHER TO GET THE MIDDLE EAST
PEACE PROCESS RESUMED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. ALONG THIS
LINE, FAHMI COMMENTED TO AMBASSADOR LILTS THAT THE
RESULTS OF THE ASAD-SADAT DISCUSSION HAD BEEN FULLY
SET FORTH IN JOINT STATEMENTS ISSUED LAST TUESDAY.
FAHMI, HOWEVER, MADE THE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL:
COMMENTS: , ?
--THE PROCESS OF "COORDINATION AND UNIFICATION"
WOULD TAKE .SOME TIME AND NO ONE COULD BE SURE
OF THE ULTIMATE OUTCOME;
; !
HS iijit?-
tiqr13
?
ARD
SiS
1
DOS & NSA reviews
completed'
?
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/011047 LOC-HAK-545-5-15-5
I M 711.2ii ' F "
No Objection to Decla.s!iti_cato_n__ID Part
--HE THOUGHT THAT EGYPTIAN AND SYRIAN VIEWS ON
THE PALESTINIAN LEADERSHIP QUESTION HAD BEEN
.RESOLVED {BUT WAS NOT SURE}, AND THAT THE
BELIEF ARAFAT coup BE REMOVED WAS FALLACIOUS;
--AsAD HAD NOT ADVANCED HIS IDEA OF A SINGLE .
ARAB DELEGATION, AT GENEVA, BUT HAD AGREED
WITH SADAT THAT EACH CONFRONTATION STATE
AND THE PLO SHOULD BE REPRESENTED
SEPARATELYi AND ?
--SADAT HAD GIVEN ASAD THE "GREEN.LIGHT" TO
PROCEED WITH' SOME FORM OF FEDERATION WITH ?
JORDAN.'
3. THE FURTHER ISOLAT/ON' OF IRAQ.IS ANOTHER-RESULT
OF THE SYRIAN-EGYPTIAN RAPPROCHEMENT. IN A LENGTHY
COMMENTARY, REUTER NOTED THAT THE IRAQIS CONTINUE TO '
SUCK ''THE TREND. AMONG THE ARAB STATES TO NEGOTIATE
WITH ISRAEL. IRAQI OFFICIALS DO NOT-BELIEVE A- !
PALESTINIAN STATE ON TUE WEST :BARK AND GAZA IS A FEASIBLE
OPTION FOR EVEN IF SUCH A STATE WERE CREATED IT WOULD ?
ONLY BE A PUPPET. NOR: DOES BAGHDAD WANT TO SEE A
.GENEVA CONFERENCE TAKE PLACE, BUT IF IT Dpts IRAQI
OFFICIALS BELIEVE IT WILL ACHIEVE NOTHING. IMPLICIT
IN BAGHDAD'S ATTITUDE IS A SKEPTICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ISRAEL MAKING ANY REAL CONCESSIONS TO,
ITS ARAB NEIGHBORS OR. To THE PALESTINIANS. .
4. THE SOVIETS APPEAR TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A
UNIFIED ARAB STANCE ON THE MIDDLE EAST QUESTION,
ILLUSTRATED BY THE ASAD-SADAT RAPPROCHEMENT. GROMYKO
HAS SAID THE SOVIETS INFORMED THE EGYPTIANS THAT THEY
AGREE THE "TIME IS RIPE" FOR A NEW GENEVA-CONFERENCE,
AND BACK THE CONTINUED ARAB PUSH FOR AN EARLY
RECONVENING. AS THE MOMENTUM PICKS UP THE SOVIETS SEEM
To BE FORMULATING THEIR OWN IDEAS ON HOW 'THE CONFERENCE
SHOULD BE HANDLED. IN A MEETING WITH IRISH FOREIGN
MINISTER FITZGERALD, GROMYKO:
--SAID A POSSIBLE SOLUTION FOTETTING THE
PLO AND ISRAEL TO RECOGNIZE ACH
OTHER MAY BE "A SIMULTANEOUS ACT";
--REITERATED THE SOVIETS' POSITION THAT THE-
PALESTINIANS MUST BE REPRESENTED AT GENEVA,
BUT EXPRESSED ANNOYANCE THAT THE PALESTINIANS
HAVE BEEN LINABLE TO REACH DECISIONS ON THE
MAJOR ISSUES;
vir
TOP SECRET
AMin fri, 74T,., Tri.--reA cai I -
No Obiection to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04: LOC-HAK-545-6-15-5
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04: LOC-HAK-545-5-15-5
'LOU 010 Vti 440 !AU
TOP SECRET
--HOPED THAT THE OFT-POSTPONED PNC SESSION
WOULD MEET AND WOULD CREATE AN "INTERIM
PALESTINIAN GOVERNMENT";
? --STRESSED THAT SOME KIND OF SEPARATE ,
INDEPENDENT PALESTINIAN STATE MUST BE PART
OF A FINAL SOLUTION, AND SUGGESTED THAT
ONE FORM COULD BE A WEST BANK/GAZAtdORDAN
-FEDERATION tHE'ADMITTED THAT THIS IDEA WAS
UNACCEPTABLE TO THE PLO, AND IMPLIED THAT
THE SOVIETS WOULD q03.1. PUSH THE PALESTINIANS
ON THIS.}
. . .
GROW? ALSO STATED THAT A FINAL PEACE WOULD HAVE TO
PROVIDE GUARANTEES FOR THE CONTINUED EXISTENCE OF ALL .
STATES IN THE AREA,' AN1 NOTED THAT THE SOVIET UNION
WAS PREPARED TO OFFER SUCASSURANCES:TO EACH WCOUNTRY.,
INCLUDIWISRAEL.
. . TOP SECRET
. .....-a.....,?????????
. .
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/0'1/Oil:: 1:66-"AAK-545-5-15-5 ? -
: 25X1
I a nu.; min 1.1f1 Liar(
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04 ? LOC-HAK-545-5-15-5
: TOP SECR:ET
. LEBANON:,
--THE SAUDI AMBASSADOR TO LEBANON ANNOUNCED ON BEHALF
OF THE MEMBERS OP THE QUADRIPARTITE COMMITTEE THAT
A DECISION ON THE COLLECTION OF HEAVY WEAPONS HAD
BEEN -MADE. ,
--LEBANESE ARMY: EMBASSY BEIRUT HAS VOTED THAT MINISTER
OF .DEFENSE BUTROS :HAS SAID THAT EXISTING CONTINGENTS
OF THE LEBANESE ARMY SUCH AS THE VANGUARDS WILL.
NOT BE REINCORPORATED AS UNITS. ACCORDING TO
' MICHEL KHOURY, SARKIS IS CONSIDERING THE
ESTABLISHMENT OF A COMMITTEE OF OFFICERS, NON-
COMMISSIONED OFFICERS AND CIVILIANS TO SCREEN
, APPLICANTS FOR THE RECONSTITUTED ARMY.
TOP.SMET..
?
...trzirrtlr.vii,;,A 4-4..? tvA in ?
4:0 A.:A:: et ?
.4 .f ?
? No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04 : LOC-HAK-545-5-15-5
25X1
25X1
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04: LOC-HAK-545-5-15-5
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04: LOC-HAK-545-5-15-5
25X1
.vdirealuitow i.501 w ittAai
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04 : LOC-HAK-545-5-15-5
TOP SECRET
7. ARAB-ISRAELI:
.-EGYPTIAN-SYRIAN PEACE OFFENSIVE: THE JORDANIAN PAPER
AR-RAY REPORTED FROM CAIRO THAT IN THE COMING FEW
DAYS EGYPT AND SYRIAIWILL DISPATCH JOINT DELEGATIONS
TO THE US, THE SOVIET UNION, AND WESTERN EUROPE.
THE AIM OF THESE CONTACTS WILL BE TO PRESS FOR A
GENEVA CONFERENCE AND TO THWART ISRAELI ATTEMPTS
TO DELAY A CONFERENCE.
.'
--EGYPT ON ISRAELI CABINET CRISIS: EMBASSY CAIRO REPORTS
1 THAT THE CAIRO PRESS CONTINUES TO VIEW THE ISRAELI
t CABINET CRISIS AS A MANEUVER TO DELAY PROGRESS TOWARD
A MIDDLE EAST PEACE SETTLEMENT.
--DEBATES: RABIN YESTERDAY ACCEPTED A CHALLENGE TO
DEBATE BEGIN ON TELEVISION. RABIN, LAYING THE
GROUNDWORK FOR HIS CAMPAIGN, SAID HE VIEWED THE
ELECTION AS A CONTEST BETWEEN LABOR AND THE LIKUD.
Top SECRET
25X1
41.
Nr nhiectiOn to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04: LOC-HAK-545-5-15-5
. I 111. /d P! IP; rt J VI 14 1L:1' 41 11 I
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04: LOC-HAK-545-5-15-5
WIG!,
--ARAFAT: ARAF'AT CONCLUDED FOUR DAYS OF \nSCUSSIONS
IN CAIRO. ON DECEMBER 24. HE HELD TALKS WITH .
.SYRIAN LEADERS i INCLUDING ASAA, ON DECEMBER 2S
?01,
? .
4 ' .1' ...4 ? . TOP. SECRET ? ?
1 ,
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04: LOC-HAK-545-5-15-5 .
25X1
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04: LOC-HAK-545-5-15-5
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04: LOC-HAK-545-5-15-5
25X1
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04: LOC-HAK-545-5-15-5
.,
? MY tbika Otri kiem Tal VT Xlsr ev tw avoir
. . ? . ? u ? '
t ?'. , ,
, ?
,
TOP SECRET ,
9. INTERNATIONAL:
,
,
--UK-EGYPT: CAIRO MENA REPORTED ItcEheER 25 THAT
BRITAIN HAS DECLARED ITS FULL SUPPORT FOR EGYPT'S
REQUEST FOR coNPREHENSIVE NEGOTIATIONS. CROSLAND
REPORTEDLY TOLD FAHMY THAT BRITAIN BELIEVES THAT
. A SATISFACTORY SOLUTION FOR THE PALESTINIANS IS
A PRIMARY CONDITION FOR ANY SETTLEMENT.
. ., ?
?
--ISRAEL-ARAB'GUERRILLAS: AP REPORTED THAT ISRAELI.
,AUTHORITIES HAVE ARRESTED 68 SUSPECTED ARAB
?GUERRILLAS IN THE UEST BANK. YY
, " ?
?? ? ?f
TOP SECRET
,
?
.
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2013/01/04: LOC-HAK-545-5-15-5