CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-544-3-8-6
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: December 18, 2012
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: November 7, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

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To ~i Secret
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Central Intelligence Bulletin
State Department review
completed
MORI/CDF
002019761
Top Secret
2
7 November 7.973
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Central Intelligence Bulletin
G4NTEN'T'S
ARAB STATES - ISRAEL:Cease-fire violations on both
fronts. (Page 1)
JCNTERNATIONAL MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS: Arab oil cut-
backs have impact on foreign exchange markets. (Page 4)
EUROPEAN SECURITY CONFERENCE: Little headway after
s1x weeks. Page 5
.USSR: Kirlenko's speech restrained in treatment of
US-Soviet relations. (Page 7)
WEST GERMANY - USSR: Hann portrays Foreign Minister's
visit to Moscow as success. (Page 9)
CHINA-PHILxPPSNES: Manila to cons'i'der a reported
C ~.nese of er to supply same crude oil. (Page 12)
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:ARAB STATES' - 'ISR:AEL : Ceasefire violations.
were reports from both fronts yesterday.
Damascus charged that Israeli aircraft attacked
Syrian positions yesterday morning in the central and
southern sectors of the front, using what theeSyra.ans
.described as Shrike missiles; the Shrike is a US mis-
sile used to destroy radars. The Syrians claim to
have retaelled the attacks, while an Israeli spokesman
r-enxit-c~ne9~r'~ 'hP hard "no information" on .them.
~e Syrian
root as een re a a.ve y quie~s~c. se-fire,
and this attack is the first major violation thus far
reported, .
On the Egyptian front, an Israeli military spokes-
man reported one minor ~.ncident in the Second Army
sector yesterday and two others in the Third Army area.
According to the Israelis, the Egyptians initiated all
three incidents but broke contact when the Israelis
opened fire. No casualties were reported.' A UN ob-
server also reports seeing an Egyptian SAM fired at
an aircraft near the Little Bitter Lake.
The Israelis have agreed to permit an additional
50 trucks with nonmilitary supplies to pass through
their lines to the encircled Egyptian Third Army.
This wa.l1 bring to 175 the number of trucks which
the Israelis have allowed through. Elsewhere in the
southern sector, however, CTN observers report that
the zsraelis have dammed the Sweetwater Canal outside
Suez City. Stagnant fresh water remains in the canal.
and is drinkable with suitable treatment, but will
become less so with. time because the canal is used
for sewage.
zsrael announced yesterday that l,$5~ Israeli:
soldiers had been killed during the war, and that an
almost equal number of wounded were still hospitalized.
The .Israelis previously had not disclosed casualty
totals, except for an announcement on 15 October that
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656 soldiers had been kilT.ed in the first eight days
of fighting. While the public has suspected heavy
casualties, these figures--three times the total
during the 1967 war--will be a shock in casualty-
sensitive Israel.. The figures could have a sobering
effect on those favoring a renewal of the war, and
Prime Minister Meir may be trying to prepare the pub-
lic for some Israeli concessions.
At the UN, there is growing pressure for a for-
mal meeting of the Security Council--possib],y as
early as today--on Israel's failure to pullback to
the cease--fire lines of 22 October. The nonaligned
states, particularly Kenya, seem to be the chief
agitators fora public session. Movement toward a
Council meeting is no doubt intended to bring pres-
sure on the U3. The nonaligned states used this
tactic before the cease-fire and are apparently em-
ploying it now to underline the Arab message that
there must be some positive developments from Sec-
Arab countries. The separate trave s o rest' en s
'~ Nov 7 3
Central In~ell~gence Bulle~n
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Qadhafi and Boum~diene in recent days were probably
intended in part to consolidate plans for the Arab
summit conference which Qadhafi is urging and Bourne-
diene may host in the near future. Tn addition,
Boumediene's call for a summit meeting of Organ.izat~,an
of African Unity countries has been answered favor-
ably by all Arab member states and severaZ:~key~Af-
rican nations; Boumediene may hape to hold this con-
ference as well in Algiers immediately following the
Arab.summit.
The foreign ministers of the nine EC countries,
meeting in Brussels, issued a joint declaration on
the Middle East yesterday that leans slightly .toward
the Arab side. The declaration ca11s on the forces
of both sides to return immediately to positions
occupied on 22 October, and urges that negotiations
take place. within the UN framework- The statement
did not, however, charge Britain and France, as Se-
curity Council permanent members, with representing
the EC nine, probably because the two are
Arab than many of the other EC members-
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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS: The dollar
continued to strengthen sharply a.n.active trading on
major foreign exchange markets yesterday, rising to
its highest average level relative to the other major
currencies since 7 June 1973.
The dollar has. appreciated most against the
Dutch guilder and the German mark. In the past nine
days the guilder has fallen frarn the top to the bot-
tom of the European currency band, forcing the Dutch
central bank to intervene in its support. The guild-
er's weakness is attributable to the serious threat
posed to the Dutch economy by the Arab oil embargo.
The mark's decline .probably also reflects fears of
the potential impact of Arab oil policy on West
Germany. Growing confidence in .the .dollar`s long-
range prospects has also decreased the attractive-
ness of European currencies to foreign currency
traders.
The price of gold has remained relatively stable
during the past ten days. There have been no further
b dollar sales.
Central Intell~tgence Bulletin 4
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EUROPEAN SECURITY CONFERENCE: The Conference
on Security and Cooperation in Europe has been under
way for more tY~ian six weeks but still has not been
able. to move beyond the most general discussion of
the issues. The committees and subcommittees have
,been proceeding so slowly that many observers now
are. doubtful that the conference can complete its
business in early 1974 as had been expected.
The Soviets, who desire an early end to the con-
ference, have been pushing their draft on "principles
of security" that emphasizes the "inviolability of
frontiers." The West Germans, in particular, oppose
the Soviet draft? They wish to link the principle
of inviolability of frontiers with the nonuse of
force in order to hold open the possibility of peace-
ful adjustment of borders as a necessary prelude to
the eventual reunification of 'the two Germanys. Sev-
eral drafts dealing with principles of security have
been considered and sharply criticized by one side
or the other. A draft by Yugoslavia may provide the
basis for an eventual compromise, according to the
US Mission in Geneva.
One of the most controversial issues has in-
volved "confidence-building measures"--agreements
to limit certain types of military activity. The
Soviets have maintained a very restrictive interprets-~
tion of these measures, and little progress has been
made in resolv~.ng differences.
A near-stalemate has developed on another con-
troversial question: the freer movement. of people
and ideas between f.he two blocs.. The Soviets have
been insisting that. specif is measures must await
agreement on certain general principles. These prin-
ciples of sovereignty, noninterference in the inter-
nal, affairs of states, and respect for international
laws and customs would, if the Soviets had their way,
be included in a preamble and would have the effect
of emasculating the specific measures designed to
bring about freer movement.
(continued)
7 Nov 7 3 Central Intell~gerzce BuAe~n
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Little progress has been made on the other main
topic-economic cooperation. The West had thought
the Eastern representatives would be making demands
in this area, but thus far they have not done so.
The members of the European Community, although claim--
inq special competence in the economic cooperation
area, have not been able to fi11 the void because of
their inab~.lity to agree on a common position.
The neutral participants and Romania have been
pressing hard. for a link between the security confer-
ence in Geneva and the force reduction talks, which
began last week in Vienna. The Soviets actually op-
pose any such linkage, but presumably have been humor-
ing the neutrals by suggesting that all European
states could participate in MBFR. Several of the
Eastern representatives at the Vienna. talks also
mentioned, in their opening statements, the possibil-
ity of widening the force reduction forum. Theme
allies have consistently opposed such moves.
Central Tntell~igence Bulletin
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~USSRz The keynote speech at yesterday's. October
Anniversary celebrations in Moscow was most noteworthy
far its restrained treatment of Soviet relations with
the US and for the accolades g~.ven to party chief
Brezhnev.
Traditionally an occasion for marking Soviet suc-
cesses, the speech delivered yesterday by senior Pol-
itburo member Andrey Kirilenko was no exception.
Kirilenko surveyed the world situation as it has de-
veloped over the past year, drawing special attention
to Moscow's policy of detente and to Bi?ezhnev's per-
sonal role in the formulation and implementation of
that policy. According to Kirilenko, "promising
shifts" have occurred in the political situation in
Europe, most notably in Moscow's relations with France,
West Germany, and Britain, and the outlook a:s for fur-
ther ~.mprovement. .Among his many references to the
Soviet party leader, Kirilenko said that Brezhnev's
contribution to detente in Europe and in the world
at large is "universally acknowledged'?"
Kirilenko's treatment. of Soviet relations with
the US was generally positive, but reflected strains
brought about by developments .in the Middle East cri,-
sis. He said that the USSR attaches "much importance"
to relations with the US, but he modified Moscow's
appreciation of accomplishments over the past two
years by asserting that developments are only moving
"in the direction" of detente. Similarly, he cited
the rna~or documents of the Moscow and Washington sum-
mits and Soviet adherence to them, but allowed as
how the US was also expected to adhere to the spir~.t
and the letter of those agreements.
Kirilenko's review of the situation a:n the Mid-?
dle East was fairly relaxed, although it contained
customary attacks against Israel. He maintained that
Israeli forces must be withdrawn to positions oc-
cupied at the time of the cease-fire of 22 October,
and said their withdrawal ass an "urgent necess~.ty"
and a "first, step" toward settlement of the conflict@
His treatment of the Middle East was highlighted by
the assertion that the prospects for stable peace
in the area are better now than ever before.
{continued)
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~,T3is discussion of the USSR's domestic situation
contained high praise for recent accomplishments and
held out promise for further achievements. He re-
peated Brezhnev's recent claim of a record Soviet
grain harvest, and went on to attribute this success
specifically to the policies initiated by Brezhnev
eight years ago. Tn keeping with his, generally up-
beat presentation, Kirilenko said that the prospects
for fulfilling the main indices of the Five-Year
Plan are good, and that the regime will continue o
devote primary attention to improving ~ko Q~-~r~a~r~
of living of the Soviet population.
7 Nov 73
Central Xr~telkgence Bulle~tn 8
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WEST GERMANY - USSR: Bonn is portraying Foreign
Minister.Scheel's visit to Moscow last week as a mod-
erate success, even though the two sides appear to
have made little, if any, progress on settling out-
standing problems.
On the question of handling West Berlin's legal
assistance problems in the Communist world, the So-
viets temporized on Scheel?'s proposal that West Berlin
and West German courts deal directly with Soviet
courts. The Soviets claimed, according to the US
Embassy in Moscow, that they needed first to consult
with their "allies".and consider the ramifications
of this procedure for the Soviet legal system. They
did, however, suggest that this subject might be dis-
cussed later by groups of experts from both sides.
The Soviets took the line that their "agreement
in principle to consider" the West German proposal is~
a major concession to which the West Germans should
respond by resuming negotiat~.ons on diplomatic rela-
tions with Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria, and Hungary.
Talks broke down this past summer over West Germany's
insistence that its 'prospective embassies im^'~hese,.
countr~.es be al7~owed to represent-West Berlin legal
institutions. The West Germans believe that the So-
viets were behind the refusal of the East European
countries to yield an this issue.
Bonn announced of ter Scheel' s return that, as
a.result of the "legal compromise reached in Moscow,"'
talks in the East European capitals will begin again
in the near future. Although Bonn is probably de-
termined to present Scheel's visit in the best pos-
sible light, the West Germans may regard the Soviet
suggestion to reopen talks as a signal that Moscow
will not object to this pragmatic solution of the
legal aid issue between Bonn~?and East European
capitals, and ultimately between Bonn and Moscow.
On other bilateral matters, the Soviets were
noncommittal about allowing more ethnic Germans to
emigrate, and they refused even to consider releasing
Rudolf Hess from Spandau.
(continued)
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As expected, the Soviets raised the subject of
low-interest West German economic credits to finance
joint economic projects between the two countries.
No decisions were reached, and the two sides agreed
to consider the credit issue at the next meeting of
onomic commission in December.
Central Ind~elldgence Bulletin ,1 Q
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CHINA-PHILIPPINES: According to the Manila
press, the Philippines later this month will discuss
with a Chinese trade delegation Peking's offer to
supply crude oil. Philippine officials fear that a
severe oil shortage will result from delivery cut-
backs ranging from 12 to 34 percent recently announced
by US oil companies. These companies supply the
Philippines with almost its entire annual requirement
of about 9 million metric tons of petroleum. Attempts
to purchase oil directly from Middle Eastern countries
have been inconclusive, and Manila does not expect
current negotiations with Indonesia to result in any
significant quantities.
If the Chinese offer was indeed made, it prob-
ably involved only token amounts of oil. Peking is
not known to have exported oil previously to non-
communist developing countries, although it may have
recently discussed such an arrangement with Bangkok.
As a friendly gesture, the Chinese have sold small
quantities of rice at below-market prices to several
Southeast Asian states with whom Peking is seeking
closer political ties.
China heretofore has seemed content with the
slow pace of rapprochement with Manila. Recent de-
velopments, including the visit of a Soviet trade
mission to Manila and difficulties encountered by
Peking in normalizing its relations with Thailand,
Malaysia, and Indonesia, may have prompted China's
d a trade, delegation at this time.
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