SIR ROBERT THOMPSON REPORT FROM SAIGON

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-30-6-2-9
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: August 31, 2010
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: February 6, 1973
• Content Type: MEMO

No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/31 : LOC-HAK-30-6-2-9
MEMORANDUM JP 596X
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
SECRET
MEMORANDUM FOR:
FROM:
SUBJECT:
INFORMATION
February 6, 1973
MR. KISSINGER
JOHN H. HOLDRIDGE
Sir Robert Thompson Report
from Saigon
Sir Robert's February 2 report to you from Saigon (Tab A) points
out that the enemy has apparently focussed on strategic road blocking
in an effort to isolate district and province towns in order to make
maintenance of GVN control and economic revival difficult. Enemy
violations are decreasing except for the northern front and the GVN
is quite rightly working on the principle that it will rectify the pre-
ceasefire situation where practicable.
Sir Robert takes note of the fact that there is a danger that the
various commissions may now be spending all of their time wrangling
about past violations rather than preventing new ones. Sir Robert
says that while this would play into Communist hands, he assumes
from the course of the negotiations and the terms of the agreement,
that: "the effectiveness of the ceasefire depends less on enemy good
faith and international supervision than on the underlying intention
of the major powers to end overt semi-conventional war and to see
that at least an appearance of peace is kept. "
Sir Robert states that the morale of the people would gradually deteri-
orate if the GVN has to stay "rivetted on military operations. " ,If, on
the other hand, incidents can be kept to a lower terrorist level, then
major attention can be directed to reconstruction and development as
part of the-.political struggle which will follow.
Toward this end, Sir Robert strongly recommends additional economic
aid of about $100 million in 1973 to be devoted to rapid impact projects
as well as care and rehabilitation of refugees, war victims and veterans.
Such aid, according to Sir Robert, will generate local employment and
assist the balance of payments while at the same time demonstrating
SECRET GDS Auth Holdridge 1981
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/31 : LOC-HAK-30-6-2-9
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/31 : LOC-HAK-30-6-2-9
SECRET a -2- 0
our continued support, which will help to promote business con-
fidence and maintain morale.
Gearing up for this new phase will be a "great problem" for Thieu,
but Sir Robert remains confident that the vast majority of South
Vietnamese are staunchly anti-Communist but have to be switched
from military defense to a political and economic offensive. Con-
cluding that "survival requires money, "Sir Robert says that he
plans to arrive in Washington on Monday February 19 and will be
available on the 20th through the 22nd of February.
SECRET
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/31 : LOC-HAK-30-6-2-9
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/31 : LOC-HAK-30-6-2-9 `'"
? v
04265 0331441
0 021 FEB 73 ZYH
FM SAGON
TO THE WHITE HOUSE
S E C R E T 02120OZ FEB 73 VIA CAS CHANNELS
FROM: SIR ROBERT THOMPSONs SAIGON (065)
TO: DR. HENRY KISSINGER, THE WHITE HOUSE
1. ENEMY VIOLATIONS OF THE CEASEFIRE ALTHOUGH VERY HIGH
ARE NO WORSE THAN I EXPECTED. YOU WILL HAVE RECEIVED DETAILS.
EXCLUDING NORTHERN FRONT EMPHASIS ELSEWHERE SEEMS TO HAVE
BEEN ON STRATEGIC ROAD BLOCKING RATHER THAN HAMLET GRABBING
IN AN ATTEMPT TO ISOLATE DISTRICT AND PROVINCE TOWNS AND TO
MAKE MAINTENANCE OF GVN CONTROL AND ECONOMIC REVIVAL
DIFFICULT. INCIDENTS ARE NOW DECREASING AND I WOULD HOPE THEY
WOULD TAIL OFF DURING COMING WEEK. THERE COULD, HOWEVER' BE
FURTHER FLURRY OF HAMLET GRABBING WHEN ICCS TEAMS MOVE INTO,
CONTROL POINTS' BUT GVN IS QUITE RIGHTLY WORKING ON PRINCIPLE
THAT THEY WILL RECTIFY THE PRE-CEASEFIRE SITUATION WHERE
PRACTICABLE.
THERE IS DANGER THAT THE WHOLE TIME OF THE VARIOUS
COMMISSIONS MAY NOW BE TAKEN UP WITH WRANGLING ABOUT PAST
VIOLATIONS RATHER THAN PREVENTING,NEW ONES. THIS WOULD
PLAY INTO COMMUNIST HANDS AND WOULD NOT GIVE PEOPLE MUCH
CONFIDENCE EITHER IN THE CEASEFIRE MACHINERY OR IN THE
PROSPECT OF LASTING PEACE. IT WOULD PAY TO PUT THE MAJOR
VIOLATIONS ON THE TABLE FOR THE RECORD AND THEN FORGET ABOUT
THEM.
I HAVES HOWEVER' ASSUMED FROM THE COURSE OF THE NEGO-
TIATIONS AND TERMS OF AGREEMENT THAT THE EFFECTIVENESS
OF THE CEASEFIRE DEPENDS LESS ON ENEMY GOOD FAITH AND
INTERNATIONAL SUPERVISION THAN ON UNDERLYING INTENTION OF
MAJOR POWERS TO END OVERT SEMI-CONVENTIONAL.WAR AND TO SEE
THAT AT LEAST AN APPEARANCE OF PEACE IS KEPT.
CERTAINLY IF NVA CONTINUED MILITARY PRESSURE ON
PERIMETER COUPLED WITH BOTH GUERRILLA TYPE DISRUPTION IN
GVN AREAS AND THREATS OF OCCASIONAL MAJOR THRUST' GVN'S WHOLE
ATTENTION WOULD STAY RIVETTED ON MILITARY OPERATIONS AND
SECURITY, AND MORALE OF PEOPLE WOULD GRADUALLY DETERIORATE
'PARTICULARLY IN VIEW OF EXPECTATIONS ENCOURAGED BY CEASEFIRE.
IFS HOWEVER' INCIDENTS CAN BE KEPT TO A LOWER TERRORIST LEVEL
* * * * * * * *WHSR COMMENT
HAK' SCOWCROFT,HOWE,LORD,KENNEDY
RECALLED
PSN:042301 PAGE 01 TOR:033/14:57Z DTG:021432Z
***** S E C R E T *******S COPY
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/31 : LOC-HAK-30-6-2-9
 No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/31 : LOC-HAK-30-6-2-9
? 4p
S E C R E T *******S COPY
WHICH MOST PEOPLE EXPECT TO CONTINUE ANYWAY AND WHICH GVN
AS CAN
PART BE
CAN HARES TAANrDADEVELOPMENT TTENTION
OF DIRECTED RECONSTRUCTION ICAL
STRUGGLE WHICH WILL FOLLOW.
IN THIS RESPECT GUN REQUIRES IMMEDIATE BOOST TO GET
THINGS GOING AND I SRC1973YTORECOMMEND
VOTEDDTOIRAPIDEIMPACTCPROJECTS,
AID D OF F ABOUT $100M IN
SUCH AS REPAIR ^F ROADSAgF REFUGEESRANDOREHABILOIF
SCHOOLS AND CLINICS RESETTLEMENT
OF WAR VICTIMS AND VEERANS. AIDNTSWILLMOREALSO GENERATE
LOCAL EMPLOYMENT AND ASSIST BALANCE
H(]WEVERP NYOURICONTINUED SUPPORTsOHELPPj~IgDs
IT WILL ALSO DEMONSTRATE
PROMOTE BUSINESS CONFIDENCE AND MAINTAIN MORALE.
IT IS GOING TO BE A GREAT PROBLEM FOR THIEU TOOQGGEAR IARSWHOLE
GVNs ARVN AND THE PEOPLE FOR THIS NEW PHASE.
COMPLETELY NEW ATTITUDE STYLE AND VAST MAJORI~YNARE
TO DRIFT AND STAGNATE. MORE STAUNCHLY ANTCOT~~~~SMIND5 HAVE~TONBEDSWITCHEDEFROM
OF NVAs THAN BEFORE.
MILITARY DEFENSE
NTO A ITIATIVETWITH ECONOMIC
INITIATIVE
MUST TAKE EARLY
AND ACTS. I HAVE FOUND MINISTERS AND GENERALS WELL AWARE
OF THIS BUT AS ONE SAID: "SURVIVAL REQUIRES MONEY."
I WILL DEAL WITH LONGER TERM PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS
OF VIABILITY AND RECONCILIATION IN WRITTEN REPORT.
PALMER AND PLAN TO
19 FEBRUARY AND
900
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/08/31 : LOC-HAK-30-6-2-9