POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-322-3-1-9
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 42
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: June 2, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 7, 1975
• Content Type: MEMO

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THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
Office of the Director
MORI C03389291 Pgs 1-2 and 10-42
ONLY.
7 April 1975
MEMORANDUM FOR: Chairman, NSC Ad Hoc Group for NSSH 220
SUBJECT : Possible Scenarios for Arab-Israeli Conflict
1. The scenarios presented here are intended to provide a
concept of the possible dimensions of future conflicts. They are
illustrative rather than predictive. The actual causes, course, scale
and outcome of future hostilities in the Middle East are essentially
unpredictable with any degree of precision.
2. The scenarios do not address the overall implications of
the Soviet presence in the region nor the scope and depth of Moscow's
commitments as a factor in shaping the course of hostilities. The extent
and nature of Soviet and American support, or lack thereof, could further
alter the scenarios. In addition, Western European states could influence
events by efforts at diplomatic intervention. These factors are consider-ad
in a separate Intelligei..e Community contribution to NSSM 220 entitled
"The Middle East Situation."
3. The security requirements in other Arab countries will
influence the scope of assistance provided to Egypt and Syria in time of
war. The recent agreement between Iraq and Iran portends more assistance
from Iraq in the event of hostilities in the next few months. We estimate
that Iraq would provide two armored divisions and up to 150 aircraft if
a new Arab-Israeli conflict occurred in the next few months and this is
reflected in Scenarios #2 and #3. The contribution of forces and armaments
from other Arab countries is estimated to be about the same as in the
October War.
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4. The judgments contained in the drafts of these scenarios
were discussed and coordinated by representatives of the Intelligence
Community in a meeting chaired by the Assistant National Intelligence
Officer for the Middle East. There was insufficient time, however, to
effect detailed coordination of the edited texts.
J-11046d 41)
Samuel M. Hoskinson
National Intelligence Officer
for the Middle East
End:
Summary of Major Conclusions
Four Illustrative Scenarios
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