CIA REPORT ON "THE CHANGING REVOLUTIONARY PROCESS IN LATIN AMERICA"

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-12-5-66-0
• Release Decision: RIFLIM
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: October 25, 2011
• Sequence Number: 66
• Publication Date: March 22, 1971
• Content Type: MEMO

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4-- _
MEMORANDUM
A
NATIONAL SECURITY CO CIL
MEMORANDUM FOR:? DR. KISSINGER
FROM: Ashley C. Hewitt
SUBJECT:
ACTION
March 22, 1971
CIA Report on "The Changing Revolutionary
Process in Latin America"
Attached at Tab A is an excellent analysis of the ature of the
revolutionary process in Latin America, wbicj1ias been forwarded
to you by Director Helms of CIA. In his no to you, he recalls
your conversation with the President on h5ach 5; and as a conse-
quence of that conversation, he thought ,you might be interested in
seeing this paper.
I have summarized the study in the form of a memo to the Presi-
dent in the event you wish to send/it forward. (Tab I). Also attached
for your signature is a brief m mo to Helms (Tab II).
RECOMMENDATIONS:
1. That you sign the memo to the President at Tab I.
2. That you sign the memo to Director Helms at Tab II.
Attachments:
Tab I ? Memo to the President
Tab A - CIA Analysis
Tab II? Memo to CIA Director
NSS review completed.
?EELLIZZ
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4.1gEftfORANDUM 111P
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
SECRET
INFORMATION
MEMORANDUM FOR:
FROM:
SUBJECT:
THE PRESIDENT
Henry A. Kissinger
The Changing Revolutionary Process
in Latin America
Attached at Tab A is a penetrating and lucid CIA study on the
nature of the revolutionary process in Latin America which, the
analysis contends, is undergoing some basic changes. The
study suggestes that:
-- the impulse for revolutionary change is gainin_g momentum in
the Hemisphere, and in the end it will leave few countries
unaffected;
while revolution in Latin America will continue to be highly
nationalistic and by definition anti-American to some degree,
the new form revolution is likely to take in the decade ahead
will probably be less violent and less adverse to our basic
interests than it has been in the past.
The study begins by indentifying key factors determining the prob-
able success of revolution, which it defines as fundamental or
lasting change in the political and social structure of a country
occurring within a relatively short period of time, whether by
violent or peaceful means. These key factors are considered to
be:
- A sufficient degree of public awareness of and frustration over
the failure of the established order to meet growing social
needs.
The availability of the technological and institutional techniques
(communications, organizational skills, etc.) needed to pro-
duce basic changes in the social order.
of the government in power to maintain public o
and its claim to legitimacy-in the face of growing pressure
SECRET
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.1
-- The willi ness of the overument to risk its hold on ower b
inkmajor reforms fn time to head off violent revolution.
t-
Ih_ge wa revolution to ulket to come about, the
study concludes. The analysis s
ye that:
? The main impetus for revolution now comes from within the institu-
tions of the established power structure, the Church, the military,
and the professional bureaucracies, rather than from insurgent
parties and groups on the outside.
41. ???
io1ence is an anavotdable fact of life in the re to but it is becom
less Im ortant as a factor in the revolutionary process. In no case
have rural guerrillas or urban terrorists been able to topple or even
seriously threaten their governments in the past decade, though not
for want of trying.
Communist in e al have failed to Influence the revolutionary
process by insurgent or terrorist methods, and now tend to be attracted
by non-violent, popular front tactics because of the success in Chile.
-- The revolutionar
development, but instead t.nd to rise out of social frustrations arising
from a ,eveling-off or downturn of the economic process at any level.
*COON
S
directl
related to the sta
0
of
conomic
Communist elements will findit increasi
A
new establishment-based type o
the future, leaders are Iket to
d will the
difficult to e )1olt anti-
nnels. Similarly, in the
on that seems most probable in
tbursts of anti-U. S. violence
co
. The irocess of "Latiniza-
tiOn" may be U. S. investors, but in the long run U.S. business-
men can probably survive and adjust to it and still find attractive oppor-
tunities. Whil, a decline in U. S. influence in the area seems inevitable,
the study conci
necessarily such as to threaten the basic securit interests of the U.S.,
though the situation in Panama could isratte to be an exception.
the new revolutionar
I believe the basic thrust of our mature partnership policy in L.atin America
is compatible with and supported by the conclusions ed- this study. We are
now undergoing a comprehensive review of our i,olicy in the Hemisphere in
order to bring it still more closely into line with the conditions likely to pre-
vail in the region over the next several years, and wilt take this study into
account in our efforts to fine-tune the policy.
Attachment:
Tab A -- CIA memo
Allewitt 3 /16 / 71
SECRET
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