THIEU'S OBJECTIVE AND STRATEGY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-490-8-33-3
• Release Decision: RIFLIM
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: January 3, 2013
• Sequence Number: 33
• Publication Date: October 25, 1972
• Content Type: CABLE

,EXCLLI r- vn P 5
IUP SECR1 EHSITIVE
ON-FILE NSC RELEASE INSTRUCTIONS
APPLY
1972
25 PISA 8 26
T 0 P S F C R E T SENSITIVE 21110OZ
FROM: AMBASSADOR BUNKER SAIGON
TO: THE WHITE HOUSE, EXCLUSIVELY
ONE SOON.
VIA CAS CHANNELS (BUNKER)
023 IMMED A E
EYES ONLY FOR HENRY A. KISSINGER
DELIVER OPENING OF BUSINESS
SUBJECT: THIEU'S OBJECTIVE AND STRATEGY
1. IT SEEMS. TO ME THAT THIEU'S PRESENT POSTURE CAN BE EXPLAINED
BY O AE OF SEVERAL SSSUMPTIONS.
REF: WHS 2293
No Objection to Declassification in Full 2013/01/03: LOC-HAK-490-8-33-3
1w 0 IV
-- HE IS BUILDING UP A STRAW MAN WHICH, WHEN HE ACCEPTS
OUR PROPOSALS OR SOME MODIFICATION OF THEM, HE CAN KNOCK
DOWN AND CLAIM A VOCTORY.,
-- THAT IF A CEASE-FIRE TAXES PLACE HE CAN THEN INSIST THAT
THE DRV DEAL WITH THE GVN ON MATTERS BETWEEN NORTH AND
SOUTH VIET-NAM AND THAT THE NLF DEAL WITH THE GVN ON
SOUTH VIETNAMESE PROBLEMS.
-- BY MOBILIZING SUPPORT AS IN 1968 HE THINKS HE CAN
PRESENT US WITH A UNITED FRONT WHICH WILL ENABLE HIM TO
MAINTAIN HIS OBJECTIONS TO OUR PROPOSALS IN THEIR PRESENT
FORM ON THE THEORY THAT IF WE WITHDRAW SUPPORT AND ABANDON
HIM, WE WILL BE PLAYING INTO THE HANDS OF OUR CRITICS WHO
WILL-SAY THAT WE COULD HAVE DONE THIS THREE OR FOUR YEARS
AGO; IN THE P1EANTIME WE HAVE-LOST 20,000 MEN.
-- THAT HE THINKS THAT IF BY DELAYING TACTICS.HE CAN HOLD
UP AN AGREEMENT-FOR SEVERAL MONTHS, HE CAN.GET BETTER
TERMS FROM A PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER ENEMY.
2. 1 THINK THE PREPONDERANCE OF EVIDENCE POINTS TO EITHER THE FIRST
OR SECOND OF THE FOUR ALTERNATIVES.
3. INTENSIVE ACTIVITIES IN PREPARATION FOR A CEASE-FIRE ARE UNDER-
WAY AND HAVE BEEN SPEEDED UP AT THIEU'S'ORDERS. INSTRUCTIONS
FOR DEALING WITH A CEASE-FIRE HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO THE CORPS COM-
MANDERS, PROVINCE CHIEFS, AND THE NATIONAL POLICE.
4. IN HIS SPEECH LAST NIGHT THIEU'S ATTACK ON THE COMMUNIST FORCES
RELATED LARGELY TO THEIR PROPOSALS OF SEPTEMBER 11. HE DID NOT
CLOSE THE DOOR TO A CEASE-FIRE; ON THE CONTRARY HE SAID HE EXPECTED
No Objection to Declassification in Full 2013/01/03: LOC-HAK-490-8-33-3
 No Objection to Declassification in Full 2013/01/03: LOC-HAK-490-8-33-3
5. HIS STRESS ON THE PITFALLS IN A COALITION GOVERNMENT AND CEASE-
FIRE APPEAR INTENDED TO DEMONSTRATE THAT HE IS RESOLUTELY DEFENDING
SOUTH VIET-HAM'S INTEREST IN THE NEGOTIATIONS AND WARNING THE
TROOPS AND POPULUTION OF THE CHALLENGE THAT A CEASE-FIRE WILL BRING.
6. I WATCHED HIS PERFORMANCE ON TV. HE GAVE THE IMPRESSIMN
OF CALMNESS, DIGNITY, AND FORCEFULNESS. THERE WAS NO TRACE OF
RANCOR TOWARD THE U.S.
7. THE TEN DAYS HE HAS SPENT IN ORGANIZING SUPPORT THROUGH TALKS
WITH GOVERNMENT, MILITARY, AND POLITICAL LEADERS, THE ORGANIZING
OF MASS MEETINGS AND PARADES IN THE PROVINCES WHILE DIRECTED
AGAINST THE DANGERS OF A COALITION GOVERNMENT HAVE-ALSO BEEN USED
TO ALERT PEOPLE TO A CEASE-FIRE. WE HAVE HAD TODAY INCREASING
EVIDENCE THAT THE ENEMY EXPECTS A CEASE-FIRE. QUANG NAM VC
CADRE HAVE BEEN TOLD IT WILL TAKE PLACE AT 1100 HOURS ON OCTOBER, 28.
SIMILAR INFORMATION HAS COME FROM DANANG CITY, FROM THE THU
BIEN SPECIAL REGION NEAR SAIGON AND FROM VC MR 6 IN THE COSVN
AREA.
8. IT IS POSSIBLE, OF COURSE, THAT IF THERE IS A' CEASE-FIRE BY INSIST-
ING THAT THE DRV AND THE NLF DSAL DIRECTLY WITH THE GVN THIEU
MIGHT THEN ATTEMPT TO PUT THE ONUS ON THEM SHOULD THEY BREAK THE
CEASE-FIRE. I THINK IT MORE LIKELY, HOWEVER, THAT HE WILL TRY TO HOLD
OUT FOR A WHILE TO SEE WHETHER THE CHANGES HE MENTIONED TO US CON-
CERNING THE DMZ, THE WORDING RELATING TO THE NCRC, AND THE PRESENCE
OF NORTH VIETNAMESE TROOPS IN SOUTH VIET-NAM CAN BE SECURED.
9. I HAVE ASKED FOR AN APPOINTMENT WITH THIEU TOMORROW AND WILL
COVER POINTS IN REFTEL.
10. WARM REGARDS.
LHQ
No Objection to Declassification in Full 2013/01/03: LOC-HAK-490-8-33-3 At