STATUS REPORT ON MOSCOW LEADERSHIP RUMORS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: Library of Congress
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): LOC-HAK-218-2-11-5
• Release Decision: RIPLIM
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: January 11, 2017
• Document Release Date: June 3, 2010
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: November 24, 1975
• Content Type: MEMO

25X1
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/06/03: LOC-HAK-218-2-11-5
SECRET
Mrth.CRANDUM FOR B}ENT SCOWCROFT
I'RCM.:
Mr. Clift
7829
TICN
ember 24, 1915
ON-FILE NSC RELEASE INSTRUCTIONS
APPLY
SUBJECT: Status Report on Moscow Leadership Rumors
MORI/CDF
C03213085 Page 1-2
As the 24th Soviet Party Congress nears, reports and rumors of
upcoming changes in the Soviet leadership are increasing in frequency.
At our request, CIA has looked at these reports in an attempt to
identify possible common threads aad to see what conclusions might
be drawn. The paragraphs below are hosed on the Agency's findings
as of mid.Novereber. The chart at Tab A briefly summarizes a
number of die most interesting reports
25X1
The surge of reports in recent month* concerning change* in the Soviet
leadership springs from the proximity of the Party Congress next
February, Breshnev's recurring health problems and recognition that
a generational changeover is impending. While earlier this year the 25X1
rumor spotlight was principally on Brezhnev, the focus has now expanded
to include a number of players. In fact. there are now a number of
rumors to the effect that Breshnev will survive the Pa 25X1-rty Congress and
continue in power.
25X1 Those variously rumored to be on the way out re the most visibie
seniors: Breslanev Podgor ey Kosys U-7 Sealov 614%d
Peishe Although not a senior, Minister of Agriealture Poiyansky
25X1 is *leo rumored to be on the way out because of the bad harvett. The
take over geeeration in the scoaainali circulating in the Soviet Union and
Fasten% Europe is limited eesentially to those leaders whom, duties keep
thank in the poblic eye in Moscow: Perty Secretary Kirilenko
First Deputy Premier Manurev Foreign Minister Gromyko
I,eningrad Party Chief Romanov and Party Secretaries Ponornarev
and Dem:whey KGB Chief An4 ropov, Moseow "arty base Grishizt
25X1 and virtuelly all the regional leaders are igoored in nearly all reports.
25X1 25X1
Ei..RET/GDS
Autotnatically Downgraded at Two
Year Intervals and Declassified on
December 31, 1983.
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/06/03: LOC-HAK-218-2-11-5
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/06/03: LOC-HAK-218-2-11-5
SECRET
With the exception of the obvious guessing relating to promotions of
deputise with Kirileako replacing Breslin." and litasurov replacing
Koisygin there is little consistency in the pattern of reports. In
contrast to last year, for example, when his removal was freoueiLv
watrisairaal_ Gratmvkas this year is regarded as a "starer" with
he
25X1
will he part of a troika to succeed lireshnev. Kosyginis departure is
25X1 predicted although he might 25X1
replace Pedgoray AS chief of Etats. and 25X1
Aiii0v will be succeeded by Ponomarev or Dernicher, both of whom are
his understudies.
25X1
While analysts differ as to the explanation for the dimisnition of reports
coot gaming 13reahnev and the surge of remora
concerning the rest of the leadership in recent weeks, they
do agree that the rumors:
? reflect growing expectation
change will occur over the next year or two;
uoiitical
^ are too inconsietent to represeet a concerted effort to push
a given Soviet line;
? ignore several key figures sod in some cases show a distorted
understanding of power positions in the Kremlin;
represent an letereithig political phenomenon in the willingness
of Soviets at home and abroad to speculate on the political and
physical health of the top leaders and their prospects.
RGates:nw:11/ 24/75
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/06/03: LOC-HAK-218-2-11-5
25X1
25X1
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/06/03: LOC-HAK-218-2-11-5
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/06/03: LOC-HAK-218-2-11-5
25X1
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/06/03: LOC-HAK-218-2-11-5
No Objection to Declassification in Part 2010/06/03: LOC-HAK-218-2-11-5
25X1