(SANITIZED)SOVIET PUBLICATION ON THE STUDY OF STATISTICS(SANITIZED)

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INDEX:
V. S. NEMCH IN 0 V. The Balance-sheet method in econ?
?
omic statistics
T. V. RYABUSHKI N. Index-method theory and practical
application in the U. S. S. R
M. V. PTUK U A. Population census methods in the U. S. S. R
Printed lit the USSR by the Publishing-House
of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR.
Motcow 1057
20
50
MEM= gm pip
THE BALANCE-SHEET METHOD
IN ECONOMIC STATISTICS
by V. S. Nemchinov, academician
Separate economic branches are studied by their own
statistics: industrial, agricultural, transport, trade and
other statistics, while the national economy as a whole (its
structure and the relations between separate economic bran-
ches) is the subject of a special branch of science-economic
statistics, which is a summary synthetic science based on
a balance-sheet method.
The balance-sheet method is also used by branch stati-
stics when specific, concrete problems are analysed, but here
its significance is auxiliary. Thus, for example, in agricul-
tural statistics this method is used in compiling balances of
grain and forage; in industrial statistics for balances of
fuel and electricity; in transport statistics for balances
of goods transportation, etc. As a rule, all these balances are
compiled on the basis of physical measurement and designa-
ted in wheight units (tons) and work units (power-hours,
kilowatt-hours, ton-kilometres). Natural balances in brandh
statistics have been used for a long time. But economic sta-
tistics emerged only recently and the application of the
balance-sheet method to the study of the national economy
as a whole began on the whole only in the XXIII century.
The first distinguishing feature of the balance-sheet me-
thod which forms the basis of economic statistics is its value
(monetary) character. In the last centuries the value me-
thod was used only when state budgets were compiled; in
book-keeping it was used in compiling the balance-sheets
of different enterprises. From the moment of its emergence
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economic statistics pursued an entirely new objective: that
of calculating the national economic balance-sheet, In
solving this task the balance-sheet method makes possible
an economic analysis of the whole national economy as an
aggregate of different economic units (industrial, agricultu-
ral, transport and other enterprises), reducing their innumer-
able economic operailons into definite homogeneous econo-
mic categories.
The use of the balance-sheet method is impossible without
a detailed and scientifically grounded classification of eco-
nomic operations and of the results achieved by different
enterprises. Scientific classification of the elements of the
national economy Is therefore the second characteristic fea-
ture of the balance-sheet method in economic statistics.
The third and the most important characteristic fea-
ture of the balance-sheet method is the use of double counting
and duplex accounts. All material values, for example, are
considered according to their place in the receipts and expen-
ditures of separate structural units and of the whole national
. economy.
The balance-sheet method in economic statistics uses
widely the principle of duplex analysis. Thus in the process
of circulation, the different elements of production are treated
as components of capital outlays or as products distributed
between other industries (elements of productive consump?
tion) or between final buyers. A duplex study of the elements
of the national economy takes place, for instance, when ma-
terial values are considered from the standpoint of purchases
made by enterprises, groups of enterprises or economic bran-
ches and from the standpoint of the sales by one economic
branch to another.
The principle of duplex account is widely used in the
comparison of such economic charateristics as cost and output
of goods, social product and national income, production
and consumption, accumulation and consumption, or in
the study of structural economic relations between basic
subdivisions of social production and between individual
social groups of the population.
The characteristics obtained by such duplex accounting
are arranged in the form of economic matrix of figures. Such
a matrix arrangement of economic data is the fourth charac-
teristic feature of the balance-sheet method in economic
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statistics. The statistical results of duplex accounting are
arranged in the form of tables with two approneho (for exam-
ple, production and consumption), I. e? in the form of a mu-
tually combined symmetric table.
Sometimes these tables assume the form of a chess-board
balance-sheet in which the subdivisions of the subject and
predicate (items of the rows and the columns) of the table ful-
ly coincide, and the rows and columns are balanced. Chess-
board forms are widely used in English and American economic
statistics for input-output computions, which are a variation
of the balance-sheet method. Some chess-board balance-
sheets have a large number of subdivisions. For example,
the Untied States Bureau of Labour Statistics made a chess-
board balance-sheet for a study of the flow of goods and ser-
vices in 1947; this balance-sheet provides for 500 subdivi-
sions in the rows and the columns of the table. However there
Is an understandable tendency towards using the so-called
"small matrices", which study principally large structural
subdivisions in the national economy and do not requite
a table arranged in the form of a chess-board.
Large summary balance-sheet tables may be considered
as consisting of elementary balance-sheet tables (quadrang-
les) orthogonally connected with one another. The ortho-
gonal connection is usually done by superimposing the quadr-
angles horizontally, vertically, or crosswise. In the balance-
sheet tables, as a rule, orthogonal balancing is achieved in
the rows and columns or in their totals The orthogonal
connection of the elementary balance tables (quadrangles)
and orthogonal (at a right angle) balancing of the totals of
the rows and columns are the fifth distinguishing feature of
the balance-sheet method.
The characteristics of the balance-sheet method used in
economic statistics cannot be confined only to a description
of the main formal statistical features of its tabular arrange-
ment. Of great importance is the determination of the so-cal-
led economic model of the national economy as a whole.
This model is the subject of the balance-sheet method.
The results of a statistical and economical analysis of the
structure of the national economy, are in Soviet literature
defined as balances of the national economy.
See, e. g. oNational Income and Expenditure?, 1946--1952, (Lon-
don, 1953). Table 13.
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In Anglo-American and West-European literature other
terms are used to define analogous investigations, for exam-
ple, the national economic budget, economic table, national
or social accounts, etc. All these notions have in common
a numerical expression of the circulation of material values
and services accompanied by an analysis of the structural
interdependences between separate parts and subdivisions
of the national economy.
When investigating the circulation in the national econo-
my and its structure, Soviet statistics proceeds from the
Marxist-Leninist theory of social production and in parti-
cular from Marx's scheme of large-scale reproduction.
The balance-sheet of the national economy is constructed
on the basis of the following main premises:
I. Society cannot exist without labour input into social
material production which supposes the appropriation by
the society, in historically determined social forms, of the
gifts and forces of nature which in the process of social pro-
duction are fitted to the needs of man and to the needs of
the whole soclety.
2. The national income is the part of the social product
which remains after remunerating the input of previous embo-
died labour spent in the form of materials, fuels, etc. The
national income is created only in the sphere of material pro-
duction. The incomes of the members of a society obtained
outside the productive sphere are derivative (secondary)
and result from a redistribution of the Income created in
the sphere of material production.
3. In the non-productive sphere the income of a society
is not created, but it is used for remunerating the labour of
the workers and the material input of this sphere as well
as for the accumulation of capital funds (e. g. appartment
and cultural houses and other buildings) in the non-pro-
ductive sphere; it is also used to increment of the circulating
funds (reserves). The capital and turnover funds of the non-
productrve sphere are created in the sphere of production;
the material outlays in exploiting these funds are covered
at the expense of the annual product for society created in
the sphere of material production,
4. The new value created in the process of material pro-
duction takes two forms: the value of the product remune-
rating the workers which is equal to the value of the means
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of existence of those employed in material production, and
the value of the product for society which is used for broade-
ning the scale of material production (accumulation in the
productive sphere) and for maintenance of the non-productive
sphere (consumption, accumulation and material input in
the non-productive sphere).
5. The economic relations between separate groups of
the population are considered as relations between classes,
which are based on their production relations, I. c.. relations
of property on the means of production. Ownership of the
means of consumption and household goods does not deter-
mine the class structure of society. .Under capitalism the
relations of property on the means of production lead to the
rise of antagonistic classes: bourgeoisie, working class and
peasantry. Under socialism, where state and collective-farm
property on the means of production exists, there are friendly
classes: the working class and peasantry. Under communism
a classless society will be created which will be based on
common all-people property on the means of production.
These initial premises lead to different methods of deter-
mining the national income than is accepted in Western-
European countries, The difference consists in the fact that
Soviet statisticians do not include the income, recieved in
payment of various services, into the national income con-
sidering this payment as derivative (secondary) and to be
effected only by redistributing the national income created
in the sphere of material production.
The application of these Initial premises leads to the con-
struction of an appropriate model of the national economy.
Of decisive importance to this model is the strict distinction
between the sphere of material production, the non-produ-
ctive sphere (services rendered to the population by organi-
zations and institutions in the non-productive sphere) and
the sphere of personal (individual) consumption (households).
The material sphere of production includes industry,
construction works, agriculture, forestry, commercial fishery
and hunting, transportation of goods, trade (in as much
as it means the storing, sorting, packing and delivery of
products to the population), state purchases of agricultural
products and materials, material supply of enterprises and
public catering.
The non-productive sphere comprises enterprises and
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I nstitutions of cultural and everyday life services: public
education, public health, art, science, passenger
financial institutions (banks, insurance offices, savings-
banks), public utility, administration, defence, etc.
Of great importance to the economic model of the national
economy constructed by Soviet statisticians is the duplex
approach to social production from the standpoint of its
value and its material structure. The value aspect singles
out the value of the previously embodied labour (provisions
for the compensation of the consumed elements of production)
and the new value erea ted by live labour (subdivided into
products remunerating the workers and products for society).
An analysis of the physical structure of social production
singles out the following subdivisions:
1. Production of means of production (impleinentS of
production and subjects of work).
2. Production of means of consumption.
The economic model of the socialist society Is expressed
In ,the balance-sheets of the national economy which are annu-
ally compiled by statistical authorities on the basis of data
contained in the annual reports of all the enterprises and
institutions of the U. S. S. R. The economic model of the so-
cialist society is also expressed in the plan balance-sheets
compiled by the planning authorities for a future period
(a year or a five-years period).
The balance-sheet method in economic statistics is widely
used in analysing the changes, taking place in the structure
of the national economy. For this purpose economic stati-
stics constructs balance-sheets of the national economy
(using the terminology accepted in Soviet statistics), in
other words, a system of national and social accounts. The
theoretical foundation of these balance-sheet constructions
is the theory of reproduction of the social product which
characterizes the remuneration in the course of social pro-
duction the material outlays of embodied labour as well as
the distribution of the newly created value, part of which
forms .the product for society used for the further enlargement
of the scale of production and for consumption in the non-
productive sphere.
8
In 1758 Francois Quesnay an outstanding french economist,
published his famous "economic table" and in 1766 gave
an additional analysis of this table, The table of 1766 con-
sists of five lines connecting six initial points (which are also
the return points), and characterize simultaneously the flow
of physical goods and of currency in the process of exchange
between the three basic classes of society: firstly...-owners and
rentiers; secondly ? farmers; thirdly = manufacturers, crafts-
men,merchants and professionals. In the Quesnay scheme the up-
per ends of the lines characterize the buyers and the lower?the
sellers. The flow of physical gonds and the exchange of servi-
ces are shown by Quesnay not .only graphically through li-
nes, but also with the help of corresponding figures that express
the volume of products sold or the size of the remuneration
of the capital elements as well is the share of the social pro-
duct passing from the sphere of circulation into the sphere
of consumption
Karl Marx appraised the Quesnay economic table as a bril
liant idea, although he scientifically criticized the Main
Quesnay's premises: an erroneous explanation by the physio-
crates of the origin of surplus value as a "generous gift of
nature". Following the doctrine of the physiocrates, QuesLay
believed that the surplus product was created only in agri-
culture, while the class of industrial workers and craftsmen
only compensated its own outlays into the process of produ-
ction and its own expenditures of the means of subsistence
consumed by this class.
The singificance of Quesnay's idea consists in his theore-
tical examination of the structure of the national economy
as a process of reproduction of the social product. The na-
tional income and the net income of society (surplus value)
are created in the process of reproduction, after compensa-
tion of the material outlays ("avances", using Quesnay's
terminology). The surplus value is formed by remunerating
out of the national income the means of existence consutned
by the producers of the social product. Quesnay's genius
manifested itself in his treatment of numerous individual
economic acts in their entity, in their integrity, as relations
between the principal classes. I-le attempted to give a quan-
titative characteristic of the circulation of commodities and
services between producers and consumers, between the
productive class and the class of proprietors. The monetary
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flows in his tables was also correctly Pxpl&I ned as being
entirely conditioned by the circulation and production of
commodities, In other words, by the process of capital eir-
cul anon.
In his letter to F. Engles dated July 6, 1863 H' K. Marx
Presented his own "economic table" with which he substi.
tuted Qiios,lav's table, Marx's economic table was based (as
Quesnay's table) on the principle of simple reproduction,
I. e., reproduction of the social product and the national in-
come in invariable volumes. K. Marx arranges his table gra-
phically as dotted and continuous lines characterizing the
flow of material values created in the process of social pro-
duction.
The principally new feature of Marx's economic table
Is the double approach to the analysis of the formation of
the social product and national income. This double analysis
consisted in a simultaneous study of all the elements of
reproduction from two points of view:
1. the value approach envisaging the singling out of previou-
si yembodied labour in the form of the constant capital outlays
(materials, fuels, depletion of the implements of work),
the expenditure of live-labour in the form of variable capital
outlay (for remuneration of labour power), and surplus value
as the increment of the product created by the live-labour
over the necessary means of existence;
2. the physic substance approach according to which
all the outwit of products is subdivided into means of pro-
duction (machines and materials) and the vital means of
consumption.
In Marx's economic table the continuous lines characte-
rize the replenishment of the constant and variable capital
out of the social product, while the dotted lines represent
the formation of the national income as a part of the social
product as well as its distribution into wages, employers
income, interest, and land-rent.
Marx's economic table of 1863 characterizes simple repro-
duction; therefore the surplus value is entirely consumed by
the capitalists and no accumulation takes place. But later in
the 2nd volume of "Capital" K. Marx elaborated his scheme
*) See Marx/Engels, Gesarritausgabe (Berlin, 1930), DrItte
Abtel-
lung, Band 3, SS. 148-152.
10
of simple reproduction and essentially supplemented it
with a scheme of large-scale reproduction, which is also
based on a two-sided analysis of the elements of production;
from the value standpoint and from the standpoint
of the two main subdivisions of social production (the produ-
ction of means of consumption and the production of means
of pro(uction). This latter standpoint determines the phy-
sical structure of production. The new and Oben t al element
to be introduced was the subdivision of the surplus value
into the accumulated and consumed parts. The numerical
examples of the Marx's model of large-scale reproduction can
be represented in the following economic matrix of figures:
Matrix of the Marx scheme of large-scale reproduction
T1 C V
I 4000 1000
II 1500 750
P 5500 1750
12 C V
I 4400 1100
II 1600 800
P 6000 1900
T3
1 4890 1210
11 1760 880
P 6600 2090
Mg Nip
500 500 6000
150 600 3000
650 1100 9000
Mg Mp
GOO 500
190 610
790 1110
(1210)
(880)
(2090)
6600
3200
9800
7260
3520
10 780
In the economic matrix of the scheme of large-scale re-
production the following designations are used: Ti? the
current stage of production, T2? the next production cycle,
T3? the subsequent production cycle; the Roman figures I
and II define the basic subdivisions of social production
(I ? the production of means of production, and II the
production of means of existence); the Latin letters P ? va-
lue of the social product, C outlay of past embodied la-
bour (Constant capital), V ? remunerated part of live-la-
'" K. Marx "Capital", V. 11, (Chicago, 1913), pp. 596-600.
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boa (variable capital under capitalism or the product remune-
rating the worker under socialism), M ? the surplus product
created in the process of production (surplus value under
capitalism or the product for society under socia)ism).
The surplus product is subdivided into Mq ? the accu-
mulated part used for broadening the scale of production and
Mp ? consumed part of surplus product, I. e., the part
of the income of the society which is mostly consumed in the
non-productive sphere (e. g? by the capitalist as a profit).
The matrix form of the scheme of large-scale reproduction
vivedly illustrates the laws discovered by K. Marx as well
as the mutual relations between individual elements of so-
cial production, In the case of simple reproduction the value
of the product in row I is equal to the value of the product in
column C, while the value of the product in row II is equal
to the value of the product in columns.V and M. On the ba-
sis of these equations K. Marx discovered a remarkable inter-
relation inherent in simple reproduction, according to which
the material input into the production of means of consump-
tion (Ca) equals the income cf sociaty created in the sphere
of production of means of production (Vii- MO. In the case
of large-scale reproduction the income (Vi+ Mt) created in
the sphere of production of means of production must be lar-
ger than the material input (Ce) in the sphere of production
of means of consumption.
V. I. Lenin attached great importance to this thesis and
considered the interrelation between V1-1.- Mi and C;) as
being applicable "...even in pure communism" *. Lenin also
noted another equation inherent in simple reproduction which
he formulated as follows",., the total value newly created
during a year (in both subdivisions) should be equal to the
gross, value of the product in the form of consumer goas"
(I. e., M1-1-- V.2+ M11.= VC-I- ).
As for large-scale reproduction the equation of row I to.
column C is also valid if Pr? the value of the product in
row 1 (1, e., of the product existing in the form of means of
production) is taken for T,, while tl.e value in column C ?
for T (the subsequent production cycle). Similar equations,
hold true if Pc? the value of the product in row II e., of
shornik" ("Lenin's collected works"), vol. XI, p. 349
(Moscow. 1.929)
the product existing in the form of means of consumption
Is taken for T1, while in columns V and Mp the totals of both
subdivisions are taken for the period T.A. These interrelations
can easily be illustrated by the numerical example cited
above in the economic matrix of the model of large-scale
reproduction.
These regularities of large-scale reproduction formulated
by K. Marx and V. 1, Lenin are ennfirmv(l by ihe experience
acquired by the Central Statistical Office of the U. S. S, R.
in the compution of balance-sheets of the national echnomy.
In his Work "Concerning the so-called question of markets" I"
V. I. Lenin examined a version of the model of large-scale
reproduction taking into account the technical progress,
I. e., the increase in the organic composition of current out-
lays and the growth of the ratio between CI and VI. In this
work V. I. Lenin subdivided the production of means of pro-
duction into two parts (according to the destination of the
product):
a) for the sphere of production of means of production
and
b) for the sphere of production of means of col sump lion.
An examination of numerical examples allowed! V. I. Lenin
to formulate another extremely important regularity, name-
ly, that in conditions of technical progress largo-scaie repro-
duction can be effected provided the growth of the production
of means of production outstrips the production of means
of consumption. Moreover, inside the sphere of production
of means of production, the production for the needs of this
sphere itself grows at a quicker rate than production for the
sphere producing means of consumption
The new regularities of large-scale reproduction discove-
red by V. I. Lenin were of great importance for the planning
of socialist industrialization in the Soviet Union, since they
made it possible to transform an underdeveloped agricul-
tural country into a mighty advanced industrial power wi-
thin a historically short period.
In constructing balance-sheets of the national economy
Soviet economists and statiSticians rely on Marx's economic
theory and on his model of large-scale reproduction,
* V. I. Lenin. Concerning the so-called question of markets, (Moscow,
1954), pp. 10-11.
" Ibid, pp, 17 ? 19.
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But in the entirely now conditions of the socialist society
there naturaly arises the acute need for profound theoreti-
cal investigation in the theory and practice of compiling
tables and balance-sheets of socialist economy. Work in
this sphere is continuing and Soviet economists and stati-
sticians may have to overcome serious difficulties in future.
The first experiment in analysing the structure of the
national economy and in compiling balances of the national
economy (based on the accounting data of state statistics)
was made in the Soviet Union in 1923-1924. The balance
of the national economy was compiled by the Central Stati-
stical Office of the U. S. S. R. in conformity with the govern-
ment decision of June 21, 1924. and was published in 1920.
In a summary table of the balance of the national economy
the following economic branches were singled out: agricul-
ture, industry, construction, trade, transport, non-productive
sphere. Agriculture was subdivided into cultivation of land
and meadows, livestock breeding, forestry, fishery and hun-
ting. Industry was subdivided into mining and manufactu-
ring industry. In the mining industry extraction and primary
treatment of minerals (and separately of mineral fuels) were
singled out. The manufacturing industry was subdivided into
11 branches. Moreover a separate account was taken of publi-
shing. Agricultural, industrial, and constructional production
was subdivided into the following balance-sheet groups:
a) consumer goods, b) materials, c) fuels, d) implements of
production.
A most important part of the summary table of the na-
tional economy was the, account of the turnover of material
values which characterized the production and consumption
of the most important kinds of products in the economic
branches as well as their circulation in the non-productive
sphere. For each branch of agriculture, mining, and manufac-
turing industries and for construction both the amount and
the list of products used by each branch were determined.
But the chess-board balance-sheet of production and consump.
Balans narochiogo khozyaistva Soytiza SSR 1923-24 gat+, (The
Omionce of the Soviet economy 1923-94), Moscow, 1926.
1.4.
non was comp ii ted only for the three consolidated spheres
of the national economy: industry, agriculture and costru?
ction.
The balance-sheet made it possible to compute the share
of productive consumption by agriculture, industry, constru-
ction, transport and trade in the gross output available for
distribution. The balance-sheet also made possible in the
case of such economic branch the determination of the share
of the gross output that went for personal consumption and
for consumption by institutions of the non-production sphere.
At the same time not only the distribution of the output of
a given branch of production between other branches was
determined, but also its material outlays, the expenditures
on wages, remuneration for services of transport and trade
and other items of expenditure (rent, taxes, etc.).
The compilers of the balance-sheet of the national eco-
nomy stressed the importance of two aspects of the analysis
of the structure of the national economy. The first aspect
was the distribution of material values according to the bran-
ches of their production and consumption (designation)
singling out productive consumption and final consumption.
The second aspect was the compution of the total current
outlays of different economic branches (input of materials,
fuels and other material values, wages, the outlay of trans-
port and trade into a given economic branch, taxes, etc.).
But the compution of current outlays in each economic branch
could only be partial in the first balance-sheet of the national
economy ,
? After this first experiment the Central Statistical Office
of the U. S. S. R. during thirty years annually compiles ba-
lances-sheets of the national economy based on the annual
reports received from all the enterprises and institutions of
the country. The accounting balance-sheets of the national
economy are widely used by the planning authorities in
constructing the planned balance-sheets of the national eco-
nomy for the comming year and for the years of the nearest
five-year period.
The experience accumulated during many years and the
techniques of compiling the balance-sheets of the national
economy was discussed at the All Union Conference of So-
viet Statisticians held in June, 1957. The Conference discus-
sed a report deliverwl by V. A. Sobol ?The Principal Metho-
4 Report g
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dologleal Problems of the Accounting Balance of the Natio,,_
nal Economy". The conference decided in favour of inaugura-
ting the compution of balance-sheets of the national economy
in each Soviet Republic and also of commencing an annual
study of interregional circulation of material values (mutual
supplies of about a hundred Councils of People's Economy
of different regions). A study of Interregional transactions
will be combined with a study of the interrelations between
the different branches of industry and of the national eco-
nomy,
In the recent years in various countries of the world
the use of the balance-sheet method in studying the structure
of the national economy is developing on an ever increasing
scale. In 1933 in Germany a work by F. Gruenig * was pu-
blished, On the basis of the available statistical data this
work showed for 1929 the movement of the national product
from producers to consumers taking into account the subdi-
visions of output into means of production and MUMS of
consumption. This work also estimated the value created in
different branches of the national economy and showed the
consumption of this new value in the productive and non-
productive spheres.
In West-European literature it is considered that
F. Gruenig anticipated the so-called "Leontief matrices"**,
But it is necessary to note that Wassily Leontief's work was
undoubtedly mu tenced by the compution of the first balance-
sheets of the national economy of the U. S. S. R. (1923-
1924) which he knew from literature.
In this respect it is worth noting that in the first balance.
sheet of the national economy of the U. S. S. R. the main
attention was devoted to the account of the turnover of ma-
terial values which made it possible to determine not only
the input coefficients of one economic branch into the pro-
duction of another branch but also to find out the personal
consumption (particular of households).
In 1941 Wassily Leontief's famous work was published.
Its principal ideas were set forth by the author in 1931 before
the National Bureau of Economic Research. In his book
* Ferdinand Gruenig, "Der Wirtschaftskreislauf", (M?nchen, 1933).
** See, e, g., the ob,ections of E. Fuerst in his study "Matrix as a tool
to .macro-accounting". The review of economics and statistics, February
1955, Ng
16
W. Leontief used the new method of input-output analysis.
Being a variety of the balance-sheet method this method Is
a combination of two aspects of production analysis: the de-
termination of the Input in production of a given economic
branch, and the investigation of the distribution of its output
between other branches, Such a double analysis singles uut
the share accruing to final consumption in households, to
institutions of the non-productive sphere, to capital invest-
ments Into fixed and working funds, as well as to exports.
Using American census data W. L?ontief compiled balance-
sheet tables for 1919-1929 and later on for 1939 *. More-
over the Bureau of Labour Statistics compiled balance-sheet
tables of the United States economy for 1947 (D. Evance
and M. Hoffenberg)
The balance-sheet method of analysing the structure of
national economy is at present also widely used in other coun-
tries of the world. A survey of these works is given in a spe-
cial publication of the Economic ammission for Europe ***,
Of special significance are the balance-sheet tables analysing
the structure of the national economy of the United Kingdom
(1947 and 1950) ****, The balance-sheet study of the natio-
nal economy of France carried out by the Institute of Stati-
stics and Economic Investigation of the Ministry of Finance,
France ***** is also singular in character.
III III 41
The balance-sheet tables which analyze the structure
of the national economy usually are very complicated. They
consist of a whole system of statistical tables. Usually the
main summary balance-sheet table is also very complicated.
In Anglo-American studies the summary balance-sheet tables
are sometimes subdivided into four quadrangles.
* W. Leontief, "The structure of the American economy 1919=-19291
Cambridge, 1941; and W. Leontief, "The structure of the American,
economy 1919-1939", New York, 1951.
** D. Evance and M. Hoffenberg, "An interindustry relations study
for 1947,. The review of economics and statistics, May 1952.
*** European Economic Bulletin, v. 8, May 1956, Genova.
**** National Income and Expenditure, London, 1950 and 1953 res.
pectively.
***** "Rapport sur les comptes de la nation" vol. If annexe 3, pp. 305?
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i I
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The first (internal) quadrangle characterizes the purchases
and sales relating to the subjects of work (materials, fuels)
of diffferent branches of material production. This quadrangle
has the form of a chess-board with the same subdivisions into
branches both in the rows and in the columns. The columns
show the material input into a given branch of production.
The rows show the sales of the output of a given branch to
other branches of production. Therefore the structure of indu-
strial consumption for production purposes is characterized.
The second quadrangle In such tables shows the final
consumers of the product of each branch (consumption by the
population, consumption by Institutions, formation of the
fixed and working funds, exports).
The third quadrangle consists on the whole of the elements
of national income (wages and the surplus value in the form
of profits, rent and laxes),Here also data on imports and depre-
tiation are usually placed.
The fourth quadrangle includes the items characterizing
the internal accounts connected with the 'production and
consumption of the national income.
Such a construction of the summary balance-sheet table
is typical, for example, to the English studies published in
the so-called ?131 no books" '''. The structure of the balance-
sheet tables of the US national economy is analogous **.
But usually in the USA the third quadrangle is reduced to
one line ?Household service" in which wages, profit, inter-
est, rent, and depretiation are heaped together.
The economic tables in French literature which represent
a chess-board balance-sheet have a very specific arrange-
ment Both the rows and the columns of the summary
table have subdivisions which characterize the operations
made by economic units (enterprises, institutions, indivi-
duals, etc.). In the subject and 'predicate of the table three
kinds of account are considered according to the following
operations: accounts of economic activities, payment accounts
and the accounts of capital investments. In the accounts
* See the table for 1947 and 1950 in ?National income and ex-
penditure" 1950 and 1953 respectively; London.
** See for example, W. Leontief?.Stuclies in the structure of the
American economy" New York, 1953 and ?Input-output analysis:
an appraisal", New York, 1955,
4** Statistiques et 6tucles financieres,M 100, avril 1957, Paris pp.
424-425.
18
of economic activities the main branches of production, the
leading subdivisions of the non-productive sphere (admini-
stration, service) and the population (hired workers and
employees, non-gainfully employed population) are singled
out. The main production branches are also destinguished In
the account of capital investments. Especially detailed spe-
cifications are made in the sections of the balance-sheet deal-
ing with various payments and transactions (commodity.
credit, etc.) and with operations characterizing the redi-
stribution of the income (taxes, subsidies, social insurance
dues, compensation of losses, etc.).
The arrangement of the summary balance-sheet of the
national economy of the U. S. S. R. differs essentially from
the One used in Anglo-American and West-European countries.
First of all the table of interrelations between the individual
branches of production (mutual transactions, sales and
purchases) is only auxiliary in the system of tables con-
stituting the balance-sheet of the national economy. Its
totals are included in the summary table only under three
headings (production of the objects of labour, production of
the implements of production and production of means of
consumption).
The main characteristic feature of Soviet summary table
is that in the horizontal rows it consists of three large sub-
divisions: I) production of material values, 2) non-productive
organizations and institutions and 3) population.
Material production in turn is subdivided into the follow-
ing branches: industry, agriculture, forestry, constru-
ction, transport and communication, trade, state purchases
and the provision of capital goods and materials to enter-
prises.
Moreover the sphere of material production is subdivided
into social sectors: state, cooperative and collective-farm
enferprises, auxiliary economies of collective farmers,
workers and employees, economies of 'individual farmers
and uncooperated craftsmen. The non-productive sphere
consists of education, science, art, public health, housing
and communal enterprises and communal services, as well
as social organizations and institutions of state admi-
nistration and defence.
In the population section workers, employees and peasants
are distinguished.
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In the sphere of 11ltliCriol production (beside the sub-
divisions into the branches of production and into social
sectors) the production of means of consumption and of
means of production is differentiated (with further divisions
of the latters into the means of production for the needs
of this sphere, itself and those for the production of means
of consumption). As to the production of means of consump-
tion, production for personal consumption is differentiated
from production for the consumption of society as a whole,
The summary table also has entries characterizing the
production of implements of labour, objects of labour and
means of consumption. This subdivision is very important
for the characteristics of the general structure of the social
product.
As to the gross social product, the corresponding columns
of the summary table have entries making it possible to de-
termine the outlays necessary for reproduction (i. e., the
social value). These data are subdivided into the input of
previous labour (separately the depreciation of the imple-
ments of labour, and separately the input of the objects of
labour) and the input of live-labour. The input of
live-labour (which creates the national income) is
calculated on the basis of the wage fund (the pro-
thifq for remunerating the workers) and the fund for social
needs (the product for society). In the columns of the summary
table the final utilization of the national product is also
shown (with special reference to the compensation the con-
sumption, the accumulation and reserves funds and to the
losses.) In separate quadrangles of the summary table the
social product is shown in production prices, consumption
prices and in units of national value.
In view of all this the summary table makes ,it possible
to determine deviations between costs and sales prices in
different economic branches as well as to gauge the redistri-
butions due to difference in sales prices of the producer and
the consumer prices. The redistribution of the social product
and the national income can also be studied by comparing
data of various payments and receipts. In the auxiliary table
for each branch of material production, for the non-produ-
ctive sphere and for the population there is a comparison
of payments and receipts effected through such channels as
the state budget, the credit system, state insurance, social
20
'insurance, savings-banks. Similar data is given comer
fling such payments as wages, remunerations for services'
pensions, grants, scholarships, etc, The redistribution of the
national income is also fICC011nied by comparing the increase
of or decrease in ready cash, debts,etc, Comparisons of incomes
and expenditures in each economic branch and in the house-
holds make it possible to compile a balance of the redistri-
bution of the national income.
The summary table shows the circulation of the social
product based on a comparison in each economic branch of pur-
chases and sales of output and also the redistribution resul-
ting from the circulation of the national product.
The summary table also shows the balance of fixed and
circulating funds by comparing their values in the beginning
and at the end of the year and by takIns into account the
increase or decrease of the fixed and current assets as
shown in the entry "final use of the social product".
The balance of work-done and of labour-power (as
well as the balance of cash personal incomes and expendi-
tures) is given in auxiliary tables.
The data on labour resources (the number of working per-
sonnel in the beginning and at the end of the year and the
number of mandays worked) are usually given in the beyond
the balance entries of the summary balance-sheet table.
This makes it possible to express all the items of the balance-
sheet in relative values regarding the available labour and
material resources (fixed funds).
Thus the subject (rows) of the summary table provides
an analysis of the national economy inside the sphere of the
material production, in the branches of the non-productive
sphere, as well as the class structure of the population. The
productive sphere is analysed in three aspects distingui-
shing: a) the main subdivisions of social production (produ-
ction of means of production and production of means of
consumption), b) the principal branches of production (indu-
stry, agriculture, construction, transport and communica-
tion, supply and trade), c) the main social sectors (state se-
ctor, collective-farm and cooperative sector, auxiliary and
personal economies of collective farmers, workers and emplo-
yees, economies of individual farmers and non-cooperated
craftsmen). In the predicate (columns) of the summary table
an analysis is made in the following aspects: 1) division of
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social production into the implements of labour, objects
of labour and means of consumption, 2) dissection of popular
production into input of the previous labour and Input of the
live-labour (with the singling out of the value of the product
remunerating the workers and the product for society), 3) de-
termination of the final use of the national product (compen-
sation fund, fund of accumulation and reserves), 4) redistri-
bution of the national Income and of the product for society,
5) circulation of the social product. Despite such complicated
subdivisions, the 1ble consists of 25 elementary tables (quadr-
angles): this is a result of the subdivision of the subject and
predicate of the table into five sections each,
In Soviet literature the methodology of compiling balance-
sheet of the national economy is given In general works
on economic statistics.
Examples of balance-sheet tables as they are compiled
by Soviet, American, English and French economic statistics
are given in the Appendices. A comparison shows the essential
difference not only in the formal arrangement of the balance-
sheet tables, but also in their contents.
The balance-sheet of the Soviet economy (Appendix I)
is based on the theory of reproduction of the social product
according to its component elements in value form (provi-
sions for the compensation of consumed elements of produ-
ction, newly created value, and the value of the surplus
product as a part of the newly created value) and in their
physical form (implements of production, subjects of work,
means of consumption). The analysis of the creation and
growth of the social product, of its distribution and redi-
stribution is the principal task pursued by the compution
of the balance-sheets of the national economy of the
U. S. S. R.
The essence of the balance-sheet of the American natio-
nal economy (Appendix 2) is the analysis of the interdepen-
dence of industries in their mutual purchases and sales.
The evaluation of the direct and indirect demand of one indu-
.1alwayialaillia??????????401111?6111116?1.4eIa
.Statistikau (?Statistics") Moscow, Gostatizdat, 1956, P; Pp.
452-453.
stry to another Is the Main task of the American balance-
sheet tables. The distinguishing feature of this scheme is that
no aggregating of the industries into larger economic groups
is done. Industrial branches, construction, and agriculture
do not constitute a special sphere of production of material
values and the non-productive sphere is not singled out.
Therefore I present the American table (see Appendix 2)
a little differently than it was originally published. I tried
to single out the larger subdivisions of the national economy
by regrouping and summing up the rows and columns of the
American table. The numbers of the rows and the columns
of the original table are shown in brackets in the broader
subdivisions grouped by me, From our point of view the prin-
cipal deficiency of the American scheme is that it pays little
attention to the distinguishing of the elements of the natio-
nal income. In the "household" entry, for example, quite
different economic categories are mixed: wages of workers,
salaries of employees, capitalist profits, interest, rent and
even depreciation allowances. In this table accumulation
is also not clearly enough distinguished from consumption.
Of greater interest is the English table analysing the
national economy (Appendix 3), which is distinctly divided
into four quadrangles. But even in this table the third quad-
rangle (elements of the national income) and the second
quadrangle (elements of the final consumption and accumu-
lation) are insufficiently scrutinized. Soviet economists and
statisticiars think that the second and third quadrangles are
of primary importance. One of the strongest sides of the
English scheme is that it makes possible an analysis of the
items of quadrangles II and III from the point of view of
the branches which are examined in the first internal quad-
rangle (characterizing the interindustry flow of materials,
fuels and services). As to the American table, the dominant,
one might say, exclusive attention is paid to the first quadr-
angle while the second and the third quadrangles are va-
guely subdivided; moreover, the rows and columns of these
quadrangles often mix quite different economic catego-
ries.
In the French balance-sheet table (Appendix 4) the finan-
cial aspect of the structure of the national economy is pre-
dominant. This leads to an extremely detailed investigation
of various mutual settlements, payments, and receipts.
5 Repork 23
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One of the merits of the Franch table is the special alien.
tion paid to the accounting of capital investments-, But
neither the French nor the Anglo-American tables subdivide
the eapital investments and the invested values into fixed
and turnover funds of the productive sphere and separately
Of the non-productive sphere. Nor is there a clear differentia-
tion between the means of production and the means of con-
sumption. Changes in the national product are usually alie-
nated from changes in the fixed funds.
The arrangements of the balance-tables which analyze
the structure of the national economy renders it impossible
to use the tables compiled by Western economists and stati-
sticians for the analysis of such principal economic propor-
tions as the relation between the sphere of production of
means of production and the sphere of production of means of
consumption, the quantitative relations ,between the provi-
sions for the compensation of the consumed elements of
production and the value of the necessary product (used for
remunerating the value of the means of existence of the work-
ers of the sphere of material production) as well as the value
Of the surplus product.
As a rule, the attention of Western economists and stati-
sticians is entirely devoted to determining the coefficients
that characterize tile technical interrelations between indi-
vidual branches of production as expressed in the direct and
indirect demands of one economic branch to another; usually
these demands pertain to services and to the objects of work
(materials, fuels). This is, of course, an essential, but not
the most important aspect of the analysis of the national
economy. When calculating balances of the national economy
it is more important to provide larger possibilities for social
and economic analysis, singling out for this purpose the main
subdivisions and taking into account the forms of property
ownership and the class structure of the society.
While paying necessary attention to the interindustry
relations coefficients based on the productive consumption
characteristics (the first quadrangle of the Anglo-American
tables), Soviet economists and statisticians rightly direct
their attention to the study of the principal structural pro-
portions of the national economy. Among them, for example,
the proportions' expressing the relations between the sphere,
of material production, the non-productive sphere and the
24
sphere of social consumption, Another example: the ratio
between consumption and accumulation. Of great importance
are the proportions which determine the organic structure of
the outlay of social production, e, 6/., the ratio between the
material outlays and the workers fund of wages in the sphere
of the material production. Among the propoitions of speci-
fic importance is the ratio between the surplus product (used
to meet the social requirements and the needs of increasing
the scale of reproduction) and the necessary product (consi-
sting of the means of existence of the workers in the sphere
of material production),
All these proportions are considered by the Soviet econo-
mists and statisticians not as constant, but as variables
which change with the development of the productive forces
of society.
Being a new and an intensively developing branch of
economic statistics, the analysis of the structure of the na-
tional economy based on the balance-sheet method needs to
be broadly and thoroughly discussed by the scientists of
different countries, the more so because of the very serious
differences existing now in the very approach to this compli-
cated scientific problem.
S u in in a r y
1. The subject of economic statistics is the national eco-
nomy as a whole and its structure. The balance-sheet method
is its main method. Its main characteristic features are:
a) the use of value characteristics; b) the widespread use of
industrial and economic classifications; c) the use of double
counting and duplex accounts of the elements of the balance-
sheet; d) matrix arrangement 'of economic data; e) orthogonal
balancing of economic indices and orthogonal matching of
balance table parts (quadrangles), From an economic point
of view the balance-sheet of the national economy is based
on a numerical expression of the appropriate economic mo-
del. This model usually shows the basic structural subdivi-
sion of the national economy (into productive sphere, non-
productive sphere and personal (individual) consumption)
as well as the principal elements of the social product (pro-
visions for the compensation of the consumed elements of
production, newly created value subdivided into the value
5* 25
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3
tisticai science, Therefore a discussion of its methodological
foundations by the scientists of different countries is very
important for the development of social sciences and espe.
daily of economic statistics, Such a discussion is especially
important because at present there are serious differences
in the approach to a scientific solution of the problem of
analysing the structure of national economy,
INDEX METHOD THEORY AND PRACTICAL
APPLICATION IN THE U. S. S. R.
by T. V. R y a bu shk in
The main principles of index calculation were formulated
in Soviet statistics about thirty years ago*. By that time
extensive practical experience had been accumulated in cal-
culating index numbers in various fields of economic activ-
ity. In the following years the sphere of index application
was greatly broadened. In a brief report it is possible to dwell
only on the most general questions of the theory of index
numbers and on the most important features of the practical
application of index numbers.
From the very beginning of its development Soviet sta-
tistics rejected the formal mathematical approach to the
problem of index numbers. It considers index numbers first
of all as an economic characteristics. Thus, the problem of
index numbers is a problem of measuring correctly the cor-
responding economic processes. The selection of the mathe-
matial forms of index numbers of their weights, etc., is
determined by the character of these processes. The divers-
ity of economic phenomena naturally must lead .to diffe-
ent methods of measurement. Therefore it is wrong to raise
the question of selecting an "ideal" index number which could
be equally applied to different economic processes and pheno-
* This is chiefly due to the works of prof. Starovsky. See the chap-
ter "Index numbers" written by him for the course: "The Theory of Mathe-
matical Statistics", M. 1930. The rble of index methods of economic and
statistical analysis was elucidated by academician V. S. Nemchinov in
his course: "Agricultural Statistics with Foindations of the Gereral The-
ory", M. 1945 (Section: "Index Method of Analysis").
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080007-3
20
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3
the workers and employees is determined. Hereafter it Is
not difficult to obtain a general price index for the goods
mid services by comparing the volumes of their consumption
in the base and current years. At present the taSk facing
statistics is to improve further this index, giving special
attention to its differentiation according to different groups
of workers and employees.
In the practice of planning and accounting in the U. S. S. R
wide-spread use is made of the index numbers of output cost
prices (first and foremost of industrial output). Their constru-
ction is based generally on the nme principles as the price
Indices, The economic meaning of these index numbers is
that they express the results of the economic activities of
enterprises or construction works by means of comparing
actual expenditures on the production of goods with normative
expeditures. Since accounting inside enterprises always
makes possible the determination directly or Indirectly of
cost price per unit of a given product, the calculation of the
cost price index is effected directly through aggregating,
namely I where z represents the cost price of a unit
Ezoch
in the basis and current periods. Saving or over-expenditure
by the enterprise is easily calculated with the help of this
index. Nevertheless the compution of this index number for
a more or less lengthy period of time encounters: serious
obstacles in view of a rapid growth in industrial production
and a change in the list of items produced. The cost price
index differs from that of retjail prices in that it is always
calculated according to a strictly determined output assort-
ment. The commodity compositionof the entire retail turn-
over is rather stable. The changes in it must be practically
taken into consideration only when comparing very long pe-
riods of time (we do not touch here the questions of changes
in grading and quality of goods, etc.). On the contrary, the
commodity composition of this or that industrial branch chan-
ges rapidly and rather considerably (except extractive and food
industry). As an ext-imple we may point to the fact that in
mechanical engineering the specific weight of comparable
production is usually equal to about 50 to 50%' and in some
branches falls to 25 to 30%. Owing to this, the-cost price
index number and other economic characteristics related to
the whole list of produced items become incomparable.
36
As a rule, cost price index numbers are determined for
two adjacent calendary years. At the same time the national
economic plan determines the reduction of cost prices that
should take place during a five-year period. A direct compa-
rison between the initial and final period, if the list of items
produced has changed greatly may lend, in a number of cases
to erroneous conclusions. Multiplication of chain indices
does not give better results. The idea is put forward of using
other characteristics for the measurement of reductions in
cost prices, In particular, economists and statisticians are
experimenting with the ratio of cost prices in the gross
or in the salable (cash) output. A change in this ratio
might to a certain extent be a possible characteristics. Essen-
tially this index number is a variety of the indices with
variable composition. It is free from a close dependence on
a permanent list of items produced. But this "freedom" is
bought at a very expensive price. Now the change of index
number is influenced not only by the cost of production level
but also by the changes in the output structure and even
in the ratio between the output cost elements. In this case
the question of a system of output evaluation is also
complicated.
Sped lie problems arise in calculating the index number
of physical volume of output, the most wide-spiead form of
which is the index of industrial production. In the U. S. A.
and Western Europe preference is given to the mean arith-
metical form of this index calculated for a set of products
according to the formula I = Lid (where d is the specific
weight of products in industrial production; the methods of
determining this weight may be different).
In this case also Soviet statistics take as a basis the ratio
between comparable characteristics of the volume of the
whole production in the base and current 'years; algebraicaly
lp
the ratio is I ? Although both cited formulas are
? Imo
algebraically identical, they express a difference in approach
to the problem on index numbers. In the first case the index
number is a certain mean characteristics of the dynamics of
production in a selection totality which is then extended to
the general totality. In the second case we deal with an accu-
rate determination of the change in the whole mass of pro-
duction in a given economic branch and in the whole natio-
37
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3
nal economy. A certain base price (P?) is not the only possible
common measure of production.
Theoretically a more convenient measure would be the
base expenditures of labour per unit of production (t), But
practical difficulties with the all round determination of
these expenditures deprive us of the possibility of calcula-
ting index numbers in this form. None the less it is indispu-
table that this Is the method of the future.
The construction of the index of industrial production
in the U. S. S. R. is specific In that the index number is
computed directly by summing up the data included in the
accounts of the enterprises. Each industrial enterprise in
the U. S. S. R. always evaluates its production both in cur-
rent and base prices because the planned total volume of
industrial production is determined in base prices. Thus the
problem of selection of products, weighting, etc., does not
exist for our state statistics. In these circumstances an impor-
tant methodological question is that of changing the list
of items and of selecting the base price. During almost twenty
five years the base prices for enterprises and state statistics
were the prices of 1926-27. In their time they played a large
positive role in strengthening the planned economy and in
making numerous summary calculations, But as the list
of items of production changed and the industry produced
still larger and larger quantities of new products which had
not been manufactured in 1926, the drawbacks of the system
of evaluating in said prices manifested itself more and more
clearly. For the new products (especially In mechanical
engineering) it was necessary to take either the prices of the
first year of their large-scale production or some calculated
prices, Later on new prices were adopted for measuring the
dynamics of production at first those of 1951 and then of
1956.
Our index numbers were criticized by some foreign econo.,
mists and statisticians. Indices based on a set of products
were put forward as a contrast. It is impossible to recognize
this criticism as convincing, the more so that many of its
arguments were based on misunderstandings. In this case
the contrasting of index numbers covering the whole totality
of products and index numbers based on a set of products
is meaning less. Index numbers for raw materials and generaliy for large-scale homogeneous goods in conditions of rapid
38
Industrial growth and variations of the lists of produced items
cannot be recognized as sufficiently representative for the
whole mass of industrial production. The use of different me-
thods for registering the dynamics of the output of new indu-
strial branches and new kinds of products is inevitable. The
most suitable is the method of overall evaluation of the whole
production in comparable prices, providing the latter are
changed in view of changes in the price formation process.
The index numbers of physical volume of agricultural
production are constructed according to the principles stated
above. Only in this case it is calculated directly by the Cen-
tral Statistical Office because agricultural enterprises
do not make a double evaluation of their production. The
considerably smaller list of items of agricultural production
as compared with industrial makes it possible to centralize
the evaluation of the whole mass of agricultural output in
comparable prices.
The index numbers of physical volume of the national
income which is considered by Soviet statistics as the net
froduct created in the branches of material production is
also calculated on the basis of evaluating the whole mass
of national income in comparable prices, This is done by
subtracting from the aggregate product of industry and
agriculture and nf some other economic branches the material
expenditures in these branches (also in comparable prices).
Here it is necessary to resort to many additional calculations
and valuations, because the volum of material expenditures
In comparable prices is not determined by the enterprises.
Within this paper it is impossible and unnecessary to dwell
in details on these calculations. The index of physical volume
of turnover (sales) is determined by dividing the value of
the mass of commodities by the price index. The present-
(lay organization of the statistics of goods turnover in the
state and cooperative trade does not give the possiblity of
direct measurement in comparable prices.
Many interesting questions pose themselves in the analy-
sis of the dynamics of labour productivity. Some of them
still remain without a satisfactory solution. The difficulties
connected with this analysis are partially due to the fact
that it is not always possible to find an adequate statistical
interpretation for the economic category of labour productiv-
ity. In its general form the level of labour productivity is
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3f)
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3
known to be a ratio between the volume of production and
labour expenditure (I. e,, 1-2,), The different contents given
to the numerator and denominator of this formula gave birth
to numerous characteristics of labour productivity. First
of all the question arises whether it is necessary to calculate
productivity only on the basis of current labour expenditures
(expressed, for example, in man-days or man-hours) or is
It also necessary to take into consideration past labour expen-
ditures embodied in the product. The most energetic champion
of the latter standpoint Is academician Strumilin who thinks
it possible to measure these labour expenditures at least
by summing the ratio between the costs of the used mate-
rials, etc., and the average level of wages with the ratio be-
tween the product for society and the level of wages. The
majority of Soviet economists and statisticians however
consider that the notion of labour productivity is appli-
cable only to living labour.
Till recently characteristics of labour productivity were
computed by Soviet industrial statistics only for industrial
workers. At the scientific conference held in December 1956
by the U. S. S. R. Academy of Sciences, the Central Stati-
stical Office and the Ministry of Higher Education to
discuss problems of labour productivity the question was
raised of calculating additional index numbers having in
view two versions: a) calculation of labour productivity for
the whole body of workers, engineers and technicians and
b) calculation of labour productivity for the whole personnel
of workers and employees engaged in industry.
The production index (in price measurement) applied
to the dynamics of labour productivity can be represented at
least in three versions: a) in the form of gross output, b) com-
modity output and c) net output. The use of index numbers of
net output for measuring labour productivity was widely
discussed at the above mentioned conference. Strong obje-
ctions were made against it. The use of this index numbers
cannot be considured rational even from a theoretical stand-
point. Labour productivity is expressed not so much in the
newly created value as in the ever increasing amount of past
labour embodied and transferred to the product. Thus the
index number of labour productivity measured on the basis
of net output will give a narrow characteristics of the changes
40
In production processes broungt about by technical progress.
Moreover it will be alienated from the characteristics of the
volume of production.
Of course in some cases the influence of price components
comprising or determining the index number of gross output
may give an erroneous idea of labour productivity. Theo-
retically it has long been proven that the best kind of index
number for labour productivity is the one which is determi-
ned by calculating labour expenditures in the created pro-
duct * and therefore can easily be coordinated with the index
of production also expressed through these expenditures.
Because of difficulties in accounting It is practically useless
to talk about any universal utilization of this index number
form. Thus with all their drawbacks the value characteri-
stics and primarily those of gross output remain the main
characteristics of labour productivity. This is so because it
Is impossible on the scale of the national economy or of se-
parate economic branches and in many cases even on the
scale of a separate enterprise to calculate any other summary
index number which could characterize the changes taking
place in labour productivity as fully as the price index, At
the same time the need is evident in calculating a number of
corrective coefficients for the index of gross output.
From the algebraic expressions for the index of labour
productivity based on gross output I ? ; V.9 it is
evident that all changes in the output structure effect its
size. Hence the purpose of correction coefficients for this
index number is to eliminate the influence of the structure
on the level of labour productivity. This is especially impor-
tant for construction works in which the dynamics of output
themselves are expressed in estimated prices. Thus the dy-
namics and consequently the level of labour productivty is
influenced by regional differences in the prices themselves
as well as by differences in the structure and character of the
construction work.
One of the other methods of calculating index numbers
of labour productivity (which was checked in practice) is
the method proposed at one time by academician Strumilin,
1* 1. e., the formula I w ire I Is the expenditure per unit
of roduct In the reference and current years.
A
Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20 : CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3
41
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This Increment can be or,insidered as a funclion of nominal
wages and of the purchasi4 power of the rouble. In this case
the index of nominal wage Is initial, for it Is independent of
other components and is the actual sum of money in the Pos.
seslon of the workers and employees. In contradistinction to
this the index of purchas:ng power always contains element
of certain conditionality.
The problem of interdependence of index numbers is
also connected with the pestion of measuring the influence
of the structure et the total on the index number. This influ-
ence cannot be determined directly. The majority of econo-
mists and statisticians think that this can be done by means
of comparing the results of the calculation of two above men-
timed indices with variable and fixed composition. Thus,
for example, the index of labour productivity of fixed compo.
Milan calculated according to the norms of time is expressed
by I he formula I =I , while the index of variable compo-
sitqion is - P11' - , In order to make the comparison of these
Qi
two indices more evident, the first one can be represented
IM
In the following form: From a comparison of
Qi Qi
these two forms it is evident that in the first case a change
in the ctructure of the output does not exert any influence
on the index number, and in the second case it directly
influences it. A ratio between these two indices shows the mag-
nitude of the influence or structural changes on the dynamics
of labour productivity.
A detailed study of this question carried out by V. Pe-
regudov shows however that such a general coefficient is
not enough for the analysis of the influence exerted by the
structure ''.
The structural factors themselves may be of different or-
ders. A change in the composition of gross output even inde-
pendently of price factors affects the productivity of labour.
The dynamics of labour productivity is also influenced by
the redistribution of the volume of production between enter-
41?101Mussommeaomonamommolmommo
"I The result of this study can be found in his article "To the Ques?
lion of the Theory of Index Method". Uchenye Zapisky po Statistike,
t. 1. The criticism of his statements is given by I. Malyim in the Journal
Wiestnik Statistik1", 1956, No6,
46
prises and economic branches as well as by the distribution
of labour between separate enterprises and branches with
different levels of labour productivity and by the fluctuations
In this distribution, As for the changes in output composi-
tion, or the list of items ptoduced prof. Savinsky an outstan-
ding specialist in the field of industrial statistics, thinks that
the most correct method of characterizing them is the compa-
rison of indices which were weighted firstly according to the
weights of the current period and secondly according to the
weight of the base period "I
Thus it becomes evident that only a series of various
indices can properly reflect the mutual interlacing effects
of various factors. Peregudov, for example, asserts that the
index of labour productivity with fixed composition weighted
according to the gross output of the base period will be more
fitting than the usual index in characterising labour redi-
stribution between economic branches. He also tried to prove
that the index of structural changes is an independent
type of indices, thus rejecting its interpretation as a ratio
of two indices. A further study of this question semis neces-
to us.
S u m in a r y
The present paper deals with the general questions of
index theo7y and their treatment by Soviet statistics as well
as with the main features of the practical application of index
numbers in the U. S. S. R. Soviet statistics considers the pro-
blem of index numbers as one of measuring correctly the cor-
responding economic processes. The choice of mathematical
form of index numbers, of their weights, etc., is determined
by the character of these processes. The diversity of econo-
mic phenomena naturally must lead to different methods
of measurement. In many cases it is impossible to express
See In particular his article "The Influence of Assortment Chan-
ges on the Cost Price Index". Viestnic Statislikk, No3, 1956.
Conformably to the aggregatIve index of labour productivity the requi-
rements mentioned in the text mean a comparison of the following two
qiEl a Ern
indices-1? and 4., r---112 ' Their respective average indices are and
2.tiqo
---T?
where To= 100, while Ti
E ?T
?
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all the distinguishing features of a given economic process
through an index number, then it is necessary to create a sy-
stem of index numbers which would allow, to a cuw
thin degree, to avoid a narrow and over-simplified study of
these distinguishing features, The interdependence of index
numbers within such a system reflects the existing mutual
dependence between the economic phenomena they measure,
The paper sets forth some of the principal distinctions
in the approach to the problem of index numbers in the
U. S. S. R. on the one hand and in the U. S. A. and some
Western E uropenn countries on the other, As is shown by sev-
eral index numbers the task of determining the economic
effect of this or that economic process determines the sele-
ction of a suitable set of index numbers. It is not accidental
that Soviet statistics prefers aggregate index number which
make possible a direct economic grounding of the methods
of measurement.
The paper gives brief characteristics of the methods ol
calculating index numbers of retail prices, real wages, volume
of production, cost prices, and labour productivity,
The author tried to elucidate the most important actual
problems which everyday life puts before index number sta-
tistics. The most difficult problems arise in connection with
the creation of index numbers of cost prices and labour pro-
ductivity. Many years of calculathig index numbers have
shown that cost price aggregative index numbers determined
by comparing actual expenditures on output with normative
expenditures (according to the norms of the base period)
although they answer the general theoretical requirements
still are of small effect in conditions of rapid and essential
changes in the list of items produced (this change taking
place first and foremost in mechanical engineering). At
present Soviet statisticians are discussing the possibility
of using other index numbers in such cases, for example, those
of expenditure per one rouble of commodity output.
In measuring labour productivity the most rational index
number form is the comparison between normative and
current expenditure per given output volume. But in this
ease difficulties in comprehensive accounting of labour expen-
diture in each kind and variety of products rather than ,the
change in the list of items necessitate the calculation of inlex
numbers on the basis of price characteristics. The specific
48
I .0
structure of these index numbers as well as the characteristic
features of price formation leave a deep impression on the
movement of the characteristics of labour productivity.
In the author's opinion, however, the problem can be solved
not by searching for a universal and ?Ideal" index number
but by creating a system of index numbers, and specifically,
by using separate index numbers to correct the conclusions
drown from the general price characteristics of labour produ-
ctivity.
The paper also touches upon some controversial pro-
blems, for instance, the taking into account of past embo-
died labour and the use of added value characteristics when
measuring the dynamics of labour productivity.
As to the problem of determining the influence of differ-
ent factors on the increment of a given economic characte-
ristic, the author also prefers to proceed from economic
criteria rather than search for a formal mathematical way of
solving this problem.
The paper is concluded by a consideration of the que-
stion If measuring the influence of the structure of the total
on th level of the index number. In this case also the conclu-
sion can be drawn, this influence can be correctly reflected
only by series of different characteristics since these latter
can be disintegrated into a number of components which
correspond to the effect of different factors. In this case the
use of different weighting systems may be recognized rational.
?????????IiiI??????iiia. Nal???
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1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3
POPULATION CENSUS METHODS IN THE USSR
by M. V. Pt uk It a
Historic documents show that local enumerations of
the population were carried out In Russia already in the
11th ? 12th centuries. In 1255-1257 and 1273 the Tatars
organized crude per capita enumerations of the population,
excluding the clergy. In 1646, 1678 and 1710 cadastral Cen-
susinking was carried out throughout the country. In 1710
nil 'men and women (including the nobility) were taken into
account and this census may be considered as the first attempt
of registering the entire population of the country. With
the introduction of capitation, tax the tax-paying popula-
tion of the country was enumerated ten times, in accordance
with the decrees of 1718, 1742, 1761, 1781, 1794, 1811, 1815,
1833, 1850 and 1856, Capitation tax was not paid by the pri-
vileged groups of the population who were therefore exempt
from the census. The tax was levied only on men, regardless
of age. Women belonging to the tax-paying groups were not
registered in the first, second and sixth census-takings. Age
was recorded in every census.
In the middle of the 19th century the movement in fa-
vour of a general census of the population gained momentum
in Russia. In 1814 the Director of the Central Statistical
Committee P. P. Semyonov who later became honorary
member of the International Statistical Institute, drew up
the draft for the census. Before the revolution the only gen-
eral census to be carried out was the census of February 9 (new
style), 1897. It was prepared under the guidance of P. P. Se-
myonov who sought to plan and organize the census so as
to take into account the experience accumulated in other
countries, as well as the specific conditions in Russia, Oral
questioning of the population was introduced and the se-
condary occupations were. also registered. The processing
of the obtained data was not satisfactory and this affeefrd
unfavourably the quality of the materials which were later
published, Before the war of 1914 preparations for a second
census were started, and draft-schedule was worked out.
The program of this census was more detailed than that
of 1897.
Population censuses reflect the general as well as the spe-
cafe conditions of the country in which they are taken, Under
Socialism the law of planned balanced development of the
national economy necessitates the introduction of economic
planning. The law of Socialist society consists in the maxium
satisfaction of the constantly rising requirements of its memb-
ers, Therefore the establishment of the number and compo-
sition of population in the U. S. S. R., and of its distribution
is of particular interest in planning the national economy
And culture, in controlling the implementation of plans, in
determining the reserves of productive forces, in studying
the requirements of various population groups, etc. Labour
statistics, data on villagers obtainable from village Soviets,
elector's lists, etc., are sufficient to satisfy the current re-
quirements for statistical data concerning the number and
composition of different groups of the population. Yet they
cannot give any precibe information on the size of the coun-
try total population and its distribution according to so-
cial, economic and other characteristics, The needs of plan-
ning require detailed information of the number and compo-
sition of the future population according to sex, age, etc.
A deep study of the processes of the reproduction of the pop-
ulation requires a large amount of data on the number and
composition of the population. These requirements can only
be satisfied by means of a general census.
In the U. S. S, R. there were three general censuses and
two more censuses of urban population (in 1923 and in 1931).
During the first years of the Soviet State the tasks facing
the Goverment called for information on the condition of
the nationd, economy considerably shattered by the war.
The planning of the national economy and culture of the young
Soviet Republic also required initial statistical data. On
the initiative of V. I. Lenin a census of the population, an
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agricultural COWS and a registration of industrial plants
were conducted on August 28, 1920,
The data of the census of December 17, 1926 Worked out
on the basis of a comprehensive schedule, were used in de-
vising a number of steps for the planning of national mil-
amy and culture and in the deep study of processes Involved
In the reproduction of the population.
The census taken on January 17, 1939 showed the changes
In the number, distribution and composition of the popula-
tion which had occured as a result of the first two five-
year plans, Its data served as a basis for the further planning
of national economy and culture in the U. S. S. R. as well
as in the individual Republics and regions. In 1957 prepa-
ratory work was started for a general census to be taken in
January 1959.
The establishment of the total number of the population
mid its distribution according to various characteristics
is most accurately carried out by computing the actual (de
facto) population. Under "actual population" we understand
people who were present in a given inhabited locality at
the critical mcment of the census. The establishment of the
number and composition of the permanent resident popula-
tion is important for administrative requirements and for
the rendering of special services to various categories of
people, By "permanent residents" we usually mean people
habitually living in the given locality, even if they should
be absent from it at the critical moment of the census. ,The
enumeration of registered or "de jure" residents is of limited
Importance in the U. S. S. R. Various categories of legal
residents in the U, S. S. R. are listed and registered by dif-
ferent institutions in the process of their current work,
The general task of census-taking is to register all citi-
zens without any omissions, Therefore the time When the
census is taken is of considerable interest. Under the condi-
tions prevailing in the U. S. S. R. the time most convenient
for census-taking is that around January!, when no impor-
tant migration is taking place. A census is not be taken on
a holiday because on such days the population moves around
more than on week days. The holidays of schoolchildren and
studients must also be taken into account. In the U. S. S. R.
the term *critical moment of a population census" indicates
the exact how of the census: in 1920 it was taken at '9 a. m.,
114
In 1920 and 1939 at midnight, In the schedule of the new
census, the critical moment for the registration of the actual
population has been fixed at zero hour January 15, 1959
(Thursday),
In the various instances of census-taking in our country
the concepts of the population to be registered did not fully
coincide, The shedule of the 1897 census included an attempt
to collect data not only on the actual population, but also
on permanent and registered residents, which led to con-
fusion of the two categories of residents. In the census of
1920 the lethal population was enumerated and the permanent
or temporary nature of residence was marked, the definition
being made at the discretion of the person quesdoned. Data
on temporary absentees were entered into "apartment cards"
and "domicile house list". In the census of 1926 the tempo-
rary residents were marked in a "personal list", Permanently
domiciled residents were enumerated only in towns and inha-
bited localities of the township type where "rumily cards"
were used. The actual population proved to exceed the per-
manent one by two per cent. The main distinguishing fea-
ture of the 1939 census was that both actual and permanent
resident population fell within its scope. The detailed instru-
ctions that had been worked out and the successful carrying
out of the census determined the insignificance of the diver-
gence in the registered types of filopulation (0.06 per cent).
The draft for the 1959 census provides for the registration of
both actual and permanent resident population.
In the U. S. S. R. great attention is given to the organi-
zation of census-taking on which the degree of its accuracy
depends. State statistics are concentrated in the Central
Statistical Office and its branches. In 1939 offices were
created for the preparation, enumeration and processing
of the census. One office was on a national-wide scale, while
the others were Republican, territorial, regional and some
offices were created in the big cities. The preparation for
the census and the actual census-taking in regions and ci-
ties of regional, territorial and Republican significance were
entrusted to district and city inspectors for national econ-
omic registration and their assistants. Apart from them heads
of census departments, their assistants, control inspectors
and tellers (enumeraters) were appointed. The number of
the entire personnel including the reserves amounted
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C-Z0008000CI-OnIC17010-18d0W-V10 O/O/1O 3Se3i3I -104 P8A0AdV MOO PeZMUeS u! Pe!PsselPeCI
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3
were drawn up in advance; before the census they are che-
cked once more and are then distributed among-the census
personnel.
Apart from this, the personnel was equipped with geo-
graphical maps and city plans. This helped in setting up of
the boundaries of the census sections and in achieving accu-
racy during the census-taking.
The territory was broken up into census districts, instru-
ction and counting sections according to the availqble appro-
ximate data on the number of the population and other infor-
mation forming the object of the census. This data forms
a basis for determing the necessary number of census-taking
personnel and questionairs in each territorial division,
In the process of census-taking great importance was at-
tached to census documents. In 1939 basic documents appro-
ved by the Government were as follows; 1) census schedule,
2) instruction on its filling in, 3) control form, 4) report on
the census work. The latter two documents were of great
importance as a check-up. There were also additional do-
cuments such as 1) compound schedule on private house
ownership in towns, 2) cadastral list for rural districts, 3-6)
compound report-sheets from the census distrists, instruction
and counting sections, notebooks for teller, controllers and
instructors. The notebooks were filled in with preliminary
information on the district, observations and notes as well
as the results of audits, etc.
On certain importance is the preparation of the population
for the forthcoming census by the publication of booklets
and newspaper articles, lectures and talks. Special local
commissions facilitating census-taking are set up in various
pots, etc.
In the LL S. S. R. there is a practice of carrying out pre-
liminary pilot or trial censuses in a number of towns and in
the countryside, in order to check the effectiveness of the
census schedule, the instruction and the other documents.
After this the documents are approved, printed in the neces-
sary number of copies in Russian and the other national
languages of the U. S. S. R. and circulated throughout the
country.
Unification in the interpretation of questions pertaining
to census documents can best be achieved by the oral que-
stioning of the population. Explanations given by trained
50
..?-?????
tellers on various questions connected with the census are apt
to improve the quality of the information. This oral questio-
ning is of special importance in the registration of answers
to complicated questions of the schedule, notably pertaining
to occupation and the nature of the resident's stay at the gi-
yen place. In Soviet census-taking the forms were filled in
on the basis of replies given to oral questions; in 1926 excep-
tion was made for the urban population.
In 1939 omissions and double registration were avoided
by means of census certificates, control forms and control
inspections. Certificates were issued to people entered as
temporary residents and to these for whom control forms had
been drawn up, such as people travelling in trains at the time
of the census, etc. At their permancnt domicile the residents
who had received certificates were included into the list of
temporary absentees. Control forms introduced in 1939 con-
tained the same questions as the census schedule and were
destined for people who at the critical moment of the census
were absent from their permanent place of residence and had
no certificate of having passed the census in the place where
they were of the critical moment. Later the control forms were
sent to the persons place of permanent residence. At the place
where the control forms had been filled in these people were not
included into the general census schedule showing the actual
population.
Apart from information on the address, the schedule of
1939 contained 16 questions. The first six of them were of
a general demographic nature.
Registration of relation to the head of household (que-
stion 1) made it possible to establish the composition of
a household at the moment of the census-taking. Questions
2-4 covered information necessary for the establishment
of actual and permanent residence. Among the data regi-
stered were the temporary or permanent nature of residence,
the place and duration of temporary stay and temporary
absence. The questions on sex (question 5) and age (in years,
or months for infants under one year of age) were included in
every census. Question No, 9 referred to the marital status.
The family status was registered on the basis of the answers
given by the persons questioned.
Questions 7, 8 and 10 registered the nationality, mother
tongue and citizenship ol the person questioned. The variega-
57
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4, ty .
i
Hp .,
(r Idi
1r iiihrre.r.vortieren.7.1
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ted composition of the population and the solution of both
national problems In the U.S.S.R., make the registration of
nationality and mother tongue necessary, on the basis of
the self-determination of the persons In questioned. These
data are not only Important for population studies but also
for various administrative purposes, and for the development
of culture in the national Republics, The data of the 1939
census mentioned 100 nationalities, Sixty of them formed
national Republics, autonomous regions and national areas,
The census material made it possible to judge the economic
and cultural development of various nationalities in the
U. S. S. R.
Questions 11-13 dealt with the registration of literacy
and education. In 1939 there was a general question of
teracy: "a) able to read and write or only to read In some
language? b) or completely illiterate?" Such a question was
due to the fact that at the time there were many people incli-
ned to call themselves "illiterate" although they could read
and write. Question 12 refered to shoolchildren and students,
and question 13 to people who had finished school or gradua-
ted from higher educational institutions. The tremendous
strides in the cultural development of our country will be
reflected in the nature of these questions in the 1959 census.
Particular attention will be given to the registration of the
educational status of the economically active population
with secondary and special education.
Great importance is attached in the U. S. S. R. to questions
pertaining to the occupation and social grouping of the pop-
ulation, The questions of 1939 were: "14) Occupation (employ-
ment) at the present moment or other means of livelihood",
"15) Place of employment (name of enterprise, collective
farm or institution)". "16) Social group? worker, employee,
collective farmer, member of craftsmen's cooperative, indi-
vidual farmer, craftsmen non-member of cooperative, pro-
fessional, clergy or non-working citizen. If pensioners, people
receiving scholarships, etc., were employed at the same time,
only this employment was mentioned in column 14. Persons
supported by others were marked as "dependant" and their
census schedule contained the number of the census schedule
of the person supporting them. Pensioners and people receiving
scholarships were mentioned as members of the social group
to which they had previously belonged. The composition of
58
the population of the U. S. S. R. according to occupation,
sources of income, and the distribution of the population
accoring to branches of labour, types of production and so-
cial groups was established on the basis of the data contained
In the replies to the last three questions of the 1939 census
schedule. Certain social groups Included in the 1920 schedule
(such as unemployed and pnprietors using employed labour)
are not mentioned in the schedule of 1939. either does it
include questions on physical and mental defects.
The draft of the program of 1959 census-taking is closely
connected with that of 1939. Special attention will be paid
to the precise determining of actual and permanent popula-
tion of the educational status and composition of the working
people as well as the place and character of their employ-
ment. The census-taking will lest 8 days. The processing
of the results of the census will be fully completed before
May 1960.
1.7Population censuse in the U. S. S. R. are an important
link In the h tatistic system of the country. The data obtained
forms the basis for the planning of national economy and cul-
ture; they are also used in studying the reproduction of the
population,
2. The census is taken orally by special tellers ? nie
thod safeguarding more reliable data.
3. The completeness of the census and the division into
actual and permanent population are saferguarded by the
Introduction of additional documents.
4. The fixing of the critical moment of the census at
zero on a week day around January 1 sI favours the success
of census-taking. This is the time, when the migration of the
population from one inhibited locality to another is lower
than ever.
5. The preliminary drawing up of a list of bask inhabi-
ted localities and adjacent separate buildings in rural di-
stricts, as well as lists of townships and the boundaries of
each town by the time of a new census, insures the success
of the census and helps to obtain data of scientific and pra-
ctical importance.
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59
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6. In the U. S. S. Rs it is neectssary to put to the citizens
simultaneous questions on their nationality and their mother
tongue in accordance with their own determination,
7. In the forthcoming census of 1959 particular attention
will be paid to questions pertaining to the education of econ-
omically active citizens.
8. The data obtained from the census are used to establish
the composition of the population of the U. S. S. R. according
to occupation, sources of income, distribution of workers in
various branches of labour, types of production, and social
groups.
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EtfA.
?
101
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I.
Model of the balance-sheet table of national economy of the USSR
(relative numbers)
Appandlx
Circulation of P
Consumption of the national product - -- _
Funds and reserve:
Funds and reser-
Reproduction outlays
Production the
National income (V.+ MY
by the end of
Reproduction
phases
yes at the' begin-
ning of the year
I
Past labour
Live labour
V1-1-V0
of national
product P
tu
u
a
1
V
At consumer
the year
la
Ts
Eh
eu
1?01.1.1111/11?010/M=....11.1k
ISINIpleers IIIIIMMers--.
12.9.1Att_
-0
ii
4
u
ii
0
o.
.0
tIJ
I
rx
,
Subdivisions of the
nalional economy
cz
-a
(1.,
li
,..
4.
o
=
.......___
4r6 1
0 04
!al
0.113 0
tu 411J ei
.8.6
u
d.h.,,
tod
_ti
Au
%ie.. lay
?;'!'
-a
i
o
u
u
ff,
N
42;..
.t.
cu
,ad
9
e
ti 0
......--,
o
az
ga
1

:11
4)
h.
a
0
.o
fo
'61
t
cu
:I"
6
0
40
"6 0
0
VI .4
01 0,
'-'4 g
3
0
a
0
4
CS
0
4z
a
.2-1.
0 L5*
:a
0
NO
a
0
Fund of accumulations and
reserves')
4'
..t4
AZ
4)
al ....,
o
I.
.I4 B
OP 4
E it
t
V:
R1
'a.
k-
S
ve.,
3 E
o 0
I-1 0
1
IS
ti.
wO
4.)
I
4.
6.,
Otlj
0
E
0
I-.
7.5.
0
i--.
t.i:
'V
cd
01
t:
,..
u
P
E
=
E--
13
14
15
16
17
18 1
19
20
21
22
11
12
A
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1, Productive sphere
2000
200
65
535
230 170
120,8
556,7
322,5
1000
625,2
890
-324,8
600
400
75,2
-
52,1
22,6
74,7
2052,1
222,6
-146,2
-124,1
42,2
.
- 12,3
-263
400
150
35
15
377,5
191,3
139,1
52,2
17,4
313
45,1
15,0
10,0
5,1
50,0
.---
-
-
-
-
-
----.....
35
9
4,1
4
39,1
411?11?????.1.0?MiSNMS
10
5,7
5,9
1
10,6
45,0
14,7
10,0
5,0
49,7
1085
;159
229,1
379
1430,1
110
55,7
30,0
26
110,6
445,1
115
45
20,1
402,5
580
190
80
40
627,5
1. Industry
2. Agriculture ...... . . . .
3, Construction
4. Transport and comunication . .
5. Provision with capital goods and
materials, and trade
Including
A. Means of production
1050
350
225
290
85
1400
100
56
25
10
15
100
48
12
3
2
45
352
138
32
13
332,5
110 81,3
80 59,1
30 22,2
10 7,4
180 133
50,8
15
45
10
120,8
316,7
225
-
15
556,7
212,5
60
35
15
-
580
300
80
40
677,5
-213,3
49,7
-61,8
235
142,5
222,5
243,5
(39,5
87
30,2
19,8
25,2
-
-
25
14,1
13
5
5,6
12
30
19,7
r.!F',
885
554,1
613
45
65,6
112
255,2
147,3
222,7
430
197,5
262,5
A1 for the first subdivision . . , . .
A2 for fhe second subdivision . . . ,
B. Means of consumption
860
540
600
40
60
100
30
15
20
205,0
127,5
202,5
140 103,5
40 29,5
50 37,0
100,8
20
-
354,2
202,5
-
-
322,5
455
222,5
322,5
- 59,6
2,2
8 +324
1
202,5
20,0
-
81,8
5,2
-
22,2
3,0
324I 8
-
800
12
1
1
15
10
2
9,8
22
3
24,8
521
02
1015
90
13
109,8
0=2V
199,7
23
8 2641
236,5
26
-
131 for the personal consumption . . .
B2 for the social consumption . . . .
II. The sphere of service and
consumption
510
90
1000
90
10
100_
15
5
18,8
187,5
15
281,5
47 34,8
3 2,2
64,5 -64,5
-
-
-
-
-
29(3,5
26
-
296,5
26
-
40
-
-
40
20
11
9
20
921
09
40
IIIMMOMB
-
1. In public institutions
910
90
14,0
6,0
64,5
yo?????..????????????????10
-
-
-
13
27
224,8
-
-
-
13
27
284,8
-
-
-
-
13
27
284,8
8
12
280
1
10
4
4
5
0,8
5
15
4,8
51
870
94
' 54
45
10,8
a) Public administration and
defence
b) Science, culture, etc . , ? .
2. Population in household
-
50
860
00
50
40
10
2,0
12,0
4,5
6,0
-
275,5
9,0 -
O.) r r r
, ..)
- p
-
.
.....
-
.
-
-
.
-
-
-
__...
147,1
135,9
1,8
0
4.?????urrasurgraram.
-
-
-
600
monorrommommorea
-
-
-
400
-155,0--
124,8
5
400
-1774-7r
120,5
5
300
______ (:)......4.1 5
8,5
(37,1
......., ..................
0,8
32,4
}................???=1.
0,5
4,3
99,5
yft??.??????=??=......
1415
75,5
4
3067,1
......'''""
I
8,8
1
332,4
_____.
145
75,8
4
890
--
-
-
-
890
a) workers and employees . . .
b) collective farmers and coope-
ratives members
C) Individual peasants
111. Total in the national
economy
-fr"
72
4
3000
1
8
1
300
0 7
3,6
0,2
83 5
153,8
116,9
4,8
816,5
-
- -
-
294,5 105,5
.....
-
-
120,8
_
-
-
556,7
...,
-
322,5
-
-
-
1000
1) Less the losses of-0,5
Source: ?Stalklike (Statistics), Moscow, 1956, p, 452
1228
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3
Interindustry transactions, 1947 in the USA ($ millions)
A concise alternative of the table ?Interindustry flow-of goods and services by the industry of origin and destination"
Appendix 2
Sales by
Purchases by
A
Consumption for produCilon purposes
Invoslinontfioods
0
8
0
2
??????1?1.11MMIIIIVIMINOI
119
WPM
Means of existence
4111; Elf
-0
0 III 0 I:4 ?
m "Ci ,A. S.
?-?
.2"7:? vfjti8
1 beRg
is tx . 74
3
0,0.0 .0 9 od ? 4
a
0., V I:1 4-? C4
3
4
11.-11-1AVIIMMIIIM196,11t
Other industries
11:
0.
3
6
Final buyers
t
co v96
iS cu
4.0
0
Investment (49)
11.11.11111,11M.011.11.T11111.15,,
11????????????????....
10 11 12
Grand total
1?11??????????1.101MONSIN
1. Productive sphere
A. Investment goods
1. Metals, engineering and vehicles
(18, 20-28)
2. Construction (45)
Subtotal . .....
13. Means of existence
3. Agriculture and fishery (I) .
4. Industry excluding metals engineer-
ing, etc. (2-17, 19, 20, 30, 42, 43)
Subtotal .
C. Other Industries
5. Transport and communication
(31-33, 35)
6. Trade and public catering (34, 44)
Subtotal
Total productive sphere
11. Nonproductive sphere
7. Services, financps and banking (30-
8. Public authorities (48)
9. Houlehold (50) .
Total non-productive sphere
10. Changes in stocks (46) .
11. Foreign trade (Imports) (47) .
Grand total
10121 2796 12917 180 6000 6180 000 rrr
38 593 19690 1608 1826 6431 9865 12169 1126 3708 46648
154 7 161 199 789 988 1481 255 1686 2835 4542 5464 154 10160 15709 0 0 28704
10275 2803 13078 379 6789 7168 1986 293 2279 22523 6150 7290 6585 20025 27878 1126 3708 75352
4 92 96 10856 19655 30511 16 865 881 31488 116 569 9785 10470 21 1008 , 1276 44263
15307 8582 23889 4264 78915 83179 2560 8954 11514 118582 13329 2081 48979 64389 1401 2334 7011 193717
15311 8674 23985 15120 98570 113690 2576 9819 12395 150070 13445 2650 58764 74859 1422 3342 8287 237080
802 1822 212416'38 7174 8242 1308 1073 2381 12747 1678 792 7292 9762 369 . 112 2282 25272
614 2506 3120 1360 4246 5606 477 1263 1740 10466 1762 45 39182 40989 2336 149 987 54927
1416 3828 5244 2428 11420 13848 1785 2336 4121 23213 3440 837 46474 50751 2705 261 8269 80199
27002 153o5 42307 17927 116779 134706 634.7 12448 18795 195808 23035 10777 111823 145635 32005 4729 15354 393531
601 1437 2038 3007 6288 9295 1116 6825 7941 19274 6274 5454 45053 56781 1075
703 286361 76733698(5
2190 470 2660 813 10414 11227 2441 5160 7601 21488 6311 3458 31308 41077 216
16650 11492 28142 19166 52806 71972 14959 30494 45453 145567 41668 30058 2116 73842 218 0 847 220474
19441 13399 32840 22986 69508 92494 18516 42479 6099(5 1846832r9) 54253 38970 78477 171700 1509 73 1944 361555
68 0 6 1 6
8 2660 2137 4797 0 0 0 00 0 22 4887
137 1 0 137 690 5293 5983 409 0 409 6529 108 1313 132,05 0
27460 0 0 9275
46648 28704 75352 44263 193717 237980 25272 54927 80199 393531 77396 51060 191625 320081 33514 '1802 17320 769248
1, Source: D; Evance and M. Hoffenberg, ?An Interindustry relations study for 1947", The review of economics and statistics", May 1952,
2, The columns and rows of Evans'and Hoffenberg's tables were grouped by me into broader subdivisions. In brackets the numbers of the rows and co1umns which, were summit up are shown. The row 9
Includes depreciation allowances which Evans and Hoffenberg do not take into account, Services rendered to business are shoWn not In Item 6 but are added to Item 7,
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3
., Purchases by
N
(Distribution)
Sales by
(Input)
1. Agriculture, forestry and fishing
2. Mining and quarrying
3, Metals, engineering and vehicles
4. Textiles, clothing and keine
Food, drink and tobacco
6, Other manufacturing .
7. Building and contracting
8. Gas, electricity, and water . .
9. Transport, communication, and
trade
10. Public administration, educational
and medicine services, household
iI. Import
12. Sales by final buyers
13. Goods and services
14. Income of employees (wages) .
15. Gross profits, other trading income
and rent
16. Taxes on expenditures (less subsi-
dies)
17. Total input
i
ti U
CPf. ti4
9.3 11 :.
,c1 --.E
C.0
41 de2
.9 tg
tu
a a t b4
t) X a g 1
MMEIMMINIIIMIIMM?11
Interindustry transactions 1950 (United Kingdom) millions)
2 3 4
.,.. ? ? 28
6 ? 42 19
55 50 ? 48
10 5 41 ?
116 ? ..,, 1
118 , 30 395 89
30 21 22 15
4 9 60 13
105 30 400 180
53 11 218 468
12 12
OMMI.M.1??????????
497 156 1190 823
256 359 1384 480
409 53 605 136
?44 :3 11 11
alemmosselaw.almemisasa
1118 571 3190 1650
.
.0
1
1 cd`
ra
1 IS
c:
i ms
i
11 H4.
liki
0a mtg.
563
14
13
OMR
immosemennwayagens
6 7
17
133
70
107
MOM
NNW
27
160
MOOR
130 _ 209
8 12 ?
14 45 8
145 185 80
? ? ?
396 393 39
...... 17 ?
1316 979 526
246 611 610
268 362 112
678 81 7
2508 .2033 1275
8 ;
8
127
1
21
2
115
267
146
106
23
542
1'
9
56
248
27
200
121
88
219
26
1001
2133
1808
284
5226
10
111.1=11
NNW
00111
M?110
MON
IMMO
/IMO
NINO
OMNI
1227
316
ran
1543
1M1111111111ff
II (1...10)
609
424
714
207
132
1192
231
241
1140
1798
67
6755
7452
4395
1054
19656
Final Buyers
Gross domestic ca.
Public Nal formation
Persons authortn?
es
12 13 14
451
285
810
2166
249
220
230
2989
472
747
35
8753
499
9252
Source: National income and expenditure 1946-52, London, Augutt, 1953, p.p. 22-23
8
4
205
2.1
16
180
155
28
390
1071
80 42 ?130 115 854
?103 ?20 ?6 27 ?67
2057 1653 ?210 2740 14993
6
866
637
41
81
A ppendiX
IIIMMOMMINIIIIIMPOOMMOOMMEMMIONftawONIMIWNImagommis
*Di
li I
0 /
SQ
Export V ,
8.i
A ti3
Ai a
r. Cil 'We
.11e....e.......a.
16
17
(12-16)
4 9 472
?15 48 142
?40 1070 2386
?27 477 1283
40 129 2351
?29 32:3 723
? 2 1014
?2 4 301
?5 536 3991
1543
WM/
ONO
11
2068
OMNI
21
1674
.1???
?210
2740
NMI
5:31
15524
Total output
Irse..0110011.11,1,
18 19(11
+17 t 18)
37 1118
5 57 I
90 :1190
160 1650
25 2508
118 2033
30 127.)
95
II???
140
iiii.....1????????????????=a6
700
ammo
???????
1?????
700
542
5226
1513
2792
?????
22448
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080002-
ifilW4MiAaToV
1:72.1?11V;
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Tableau
conomique d'ensemble de 1'ann4e 1954 (en milliards de francs courants)
Appendix 4
r?-?
Emplols
Ressourees
1, Entreprises
3, Administrations
2, Menages
3. Administrations
o8
ci
la
?
%
71
M
44
I
10
2
4
R
7o
I.
A
u
....,,,,_AMoi_iiikss
?
.4
?
'5
wd.
M
4.1
I
2:
g
tma,
R
.
11.,
71.
RI
u
8
...=
t
4:
a..
7o1
?
o.
A
u
Extcerleur
TO1411
general
.........1......._
Ci
o
=
ms
g
MM
14
g
:0
2
R
73
a
...es
g
RI
....
"a
44
g
;=
I
R
E
A
u
g
3:3
.
u
R
?smainvirwmg,ecr
.
2
I .0
IN3
u
Extdrieur
Total
general
SINEIMIMIOMM
ONIMINONI /II
1 .
2
3
r
0
7
8
9
10
lli
12
13
14
15
16
17
- 18
19
,
20
sioni?mtlirannem....1
21111????????????
5 a Production inteiricure brute . .
3 b Arnortissenient . 1
0 c Consommation Intdrieure . .
5 d Formation nette dc capital .
5 e Exportations
5 1 Utilisation de services . . .
5 g Formations de stocks
3 h Plus value de stocks
5 I Importations . . I
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
s
.
?
?
?
?
?
:. ?
.m.?
?
1233
vs ?
461
?
?
150
?
s
.
?
'.
?
?
?
?
?
s
?
9962
?
?
?
'"'
? ?
242 ?
? 808
335 ?
? ?
? ?
? ?
s
?
26
?
274
?
?
? ?
s
?
?
?
1688
147
s
!
?
11'41
10770
1070
1688
147
1 450
?
1....
13394
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
s
?
?
?
?
?
?
......
?
MOM
?
--
i,
?
IMO
.
.
?
s
?
?
Ovar.
?
?
?
?
s
?
,..?
.?/.,,
YIN
.
.....
?
?
s
?
?
?
.....
MINI
?
?
?
10,,.
?
?
_
_
"'"
?
?
_.
....
?
_
_
_
1575
13751
_
UM
_
?
?
1575
_______.
innalsORV?0111?1?1
.......
?????????????==
??????????????????IMIMMmmommw????10,101?Ear
Total 5 Biens et services
?
?
1844
?
9962
377 808
300
1835
15326
13394
?
357
?
milliMmillia
????????=0????? .
saccsamscommeem
.
.........................
1565
15326
6 ?1 DIvielendes et parts
6 ?2 Intere'st......
6 ?3 Salaires of trallements
6 ?4 Cotisations sociales
(3-5 Prestations sociales
13.6 Impots et taxes directs
5-7 Taxes sur le chiffre d'Affaires
(3-8 Autres impots et taxes Indirects
7-1 Assistance
7-2 Dommages ,de guerre
7-7.3 Subventions d'explollation . .
7-4 Subventions lquilibre . . .
7-5 Subveptions d' quipement , .
7? 6 C9opdrat1on Internationale . .
7-7 Ddpenses et medics publiques
emertoeres -. . . .? . . .? . .
7-8 Ddpenses et recettes privees
? exterlotres
r-9 Transferts divers .. . . . . . '
?
300
4270
1006
64
?
1516
1114
? -?
? -
? :.
?
?
._
.._
32 ??
470
?
?
?
?
473
?
?
?
?
.....
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
,...,
?
?
?
9
?
?
.__
?.318
I WO
57
?
?
?
?
?
21
?
.11
170
85
.....
ONMS
?
INg???
......
?
.?
?
?
?
136
162
? ?
? 212
? 896
? 50
1717
...... ....
? 11
IMMI 391
293
? 227
? . 487
? 87
? 9
? 55465
? 33
.
?
?
?
?
.....
?
.
?
?
?
?
?
,
?
74
13
?
?
?
?
???a.
s????
?
?
?
283
235
55
,544
5436
1f41
1781
1516
1182
M5
-
791
398 ,
293
227
467
87
292
619
371
303
?
318
?
?
?
?
23
?
227
?
?
?
.....
109
58
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
120
?
117
87
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?5061
?
?1775
.
?
?
?
?
?
?
? ,
422
129
?
?
?
?
398
164
?
? .
?
?
?
..235
37
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
....,
?
?
?
.... ?
40
63'
275 i
1.141
.
791
1516
1159
?
9:
IIMPONE
350
. 287
65
.
120
?
?
?
?
?
_
?
?
?
?
..."
?
?
?
?
?
24 '
35
?
?
6
?
?
?
?
?
...".
?
?
'5
534
136
? 37
544
545
5336
1141
1781
791
1510
1182
398
293
227
467
87
?292
610
371
303
__................
ONIIMmommomil?MO
???????i???????????1
????=????????????
srarnedmormastibm
1100?????MINIMMI?Mmiag
.,,,tio.,,,,,,,,ZotaL6._et,7,Transferts,..
.8802' .?
043
?
87
882
? 4054
?
' 725
15893' '
.677
:382
?
?
--
.. , ....
,
Total.
401?11.1.
8:' Creances et dettes
?
. Mo.
???ft1
.....
' 5191 ?
?
?
519
?
?
85
?
?
?
-. 246
'188
519
Amlinmanialonamo..misigs
........11110,106
an???????VI_ ./.???????mal
..
' ' i
??????10???????011.11m.mi
ini.??????..........????
,
) '''' I Revenus bruts dl exploitation . ..
9-2 Revering bruts des entreprbeurs
. individuels . . . . . . 6.. . .
9 ? 3 Revenus bruts non distrIbuti des
?societes . . . . ' ..... .. . ,.
0-74 Financement des investissemenis
?par les entrepreneurs igdividtiels .
)-5 Epergne brute des mdnages . .
)77-6 Defici, des administrations .. .
pureWsOmasioadakromamaaimummesabim.????........10*????????1
5769
?
?
?
3760
1439
?
.....
?
*pa
270
?
?
?
, 44110
?
.....
.
?
320
? 1096 .
AIMS
?'
?
?
? ?
1..A. ."...
?
?
?54
?
II?A.
?
?
?
?
6039
3769'.
143c
-I
320'
. 1091
?5,1
?
?
5769

?
?
?
?
_
1439
320
_.
? 270
3769
... .
?
. 270
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
1096
?
--
?
?
?
?m
?
?
?
,
?
?
?
?
6039'
3769
1439:
. 320'
.1096.
?4..P f't 4
.???????nor.w.........
??????
?????????????????
Ammli?MifioleLl.csamaimaim
?
t
Total 9:
1
.............m......
........................
41??????01.111gadorm
????????0000.aramooln.
???????1101?10?060.106
....,...........*?106
?
,
Revenus et epargnes .?
5769
5208
?
270
1416
? ?
?54
?
--i
?
5769
, 1759'
?
4039
1096
?54
,
?
????a?
Total
..........?..
IIIImaiyinamitilarierasser.
. general
14071
6151
1844
357
1 2260
1096 ? 5762
246
2560
?
14071
6151
1844
357
12260
10965762
:
246
?????????????????????????????
,
2560
?
ource: tatistiques et etudes financieree M 100, avril 1957, Paris, p.p. 424-425.
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UTILISATION DE LA NOTION DE POPULATION STABLE 74
POUR MESURER LA MORTALITE ET LA FgCONDITE
DES POPULATIONS DES PAYS SOUS-DEVELOPPES
par
JEAN BOURGEOIS-PICHAT1
Service de la Population du Bureau des Affaires Sociales, Nations Unies
Dans les pays sous-developpes, los statistiques du mouvement de In population
sont trbs Mos:Amuses, Souvent elles no donnent memo pas un ordre do grandeur
des niveaux do fecondite ot de mortalit6. Les reconsements sont on general d'une
qualit6 bion superieure. Or in population nisi? A l'oeoasion d'un reconsement est le
resultat do l'evolution passe() do In fecondite et do In mortalite. On pout done esperer
titer des recensements des renseignements stir cette fecondite et ?ate mortalite.
(Yost 19, tine osperance qui a deja, suseit6 de nombroux travaux. Les methodes quo
nous nous proposons d'exposer jot ont trouve lour principe dans Vehicle des effets
des variations de in mortalite et de In fecondite sur in composition par Age des popula-
tions et &est la necessite de mesurer In fecondite et in mortalite des pays sous-
(1.6vJloppes pour calculer dos perspectives do population pour ces pays qui a conduit
le Service de in Population des Nations Unies 9, les imaginer.
MartaUM et structure par age
L'ensemble des taux de mortalite par Age constitue un bon indice pour mesurer
un niveau de mortalite. Quand in mortalit6 vale dans une population, on rencontre
tine succession d'ensembles de taux de mortalite par age qui sont toujours A peu
pt.& les !dimes. Par exemple, on observe qu'a tine valour donne? du taux de mortalit6
de 6 A 9 ans, correspond tine valour du taux de mortalite de 40 11, 44 ens qui est plus
elevee et qui est toujours A peu pres in m9me. Autrement dit, on pout 6tablir tine
serie d'ensembles de taux de mortalite par 9,ge qui materialisent les etats successifs
par ofi passe la mortalite au fur et a, mesure quo l'etat sanitaire se modifie. L'etude
demographique No. 22 publiee par l'Organisation des Nations Unies sun les tables
de morbalite mutThiE, aeu pour objet d'etablir (.4.44,41 gArie d'ensembles de taux de
mortalite par 40.
L'auttur de co document est membre du Secr6tariat de l'Organisation des Nations 'Union.
Il expose ses vues persomielles qui no sent pas acessairement cellos du Secr6tariat.
I Se1t4mao de variation de la tnortatitd aelon l'dge et le gexe, Document des Nations Ilnies, No.
ST/S0A/Sor, A/22, No. de vente 1955.X111.9.
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2
ofiab.
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Les tables de mortalitil modeles pormettent d'audier l'effet do la baisse de la
mortalit6 sur la composition par Ago des populations. Consid6rons a l'instant S uno
population ot le taux brut do reproduction est tigal A B et Posp6ranoe do vie A la
naissance B1. Supposons qu'A partly do l'instant t la mortalit6 d6oroisse de telle sorto
quo les taux de mortalit6 par Age parcourent la s6rie des tables de mortalit6 modeles,
l'esporance de vie It la naissance passant on x ann6es de B1 A Ba, Supposons on outre
qu'apres l'instant t x Ia mortalit6 so stabilise au nivoau Ba. Supposons onfin quo
la f6condit6 demoure oonstanto pendant touto ?ate &elution, le taux brut do
reproduction rostant au niveau B. Calmions dans ces hypotheses une perspective
de population. Soit P oat? perspective.
Dans la perspective P la structure par Age vane et cos variations no d6pendent
pas soulement des variations de la mortalit6 et do la f6condit6 A partir do l'instant t,
mais aussi dos variations subies par cos factours domographiques avant l'instant 1.
? Autremont dit, pour isoler, dans los variations de la structure par Ago observ6es dans
la perspective P, co qui est clit A la baisso do la mortalit6 apres l'instant t, ii faut ovaluer
cc qui est dA, dans cos voriations, aux modifications de la f6condit6 ot de la mortalit6
avant l'instant 1. Dans P,..) J,At, on calcule une monde perspective P' ou, A partir do
l'instant 1, la mortalith et la f6condite restent constantes respoctivoment an niveau
B1 et B. La ooni,:?nrakon dos 6volutions de la composition par Age dans los deux
perspectives P o. Dermot do =surer l'effet de la baisse de la mortalite consid6r6e.
Si l'on oomme population de &part A l'instant S une population stable
correspondant A la f000ndit6 B et A la mortalit6 B1, la perspective P' se reduit
cette population stable, Ii suffit alors de comparer nivolution de la structure par Age
de la perspective P :1, la structure par Age de la population stable de depart. Notons
enfin quo dan& la perspective P, on se trouve apres l'instant t x dans une population
ott in, mortalit6 mate constante au niveau B2 et oit la f6condit6 reste constante an
niveau R. Par cons6quent, dans cette perspective la population tendra vers une
population stable correspondant A la fecondite B et 4 la mortalite E2.
Le tableau 1 donne les r6sultats d'un tel calcul effeetu6 dans les conditions quo
void. B 122 3,00; ,E1 ma 40 ans; sm 40 ans; B2 ms 60,ans. En d'autres termes, on imagine,
dans une population de fecondite relativement elev6e et constante, une baisse de la
mortalit6 pertnettant de faire passer l'esperance de vie A la naissance de 40 A 60 ans
et cola an cours d'une p6riode de 40 annees de calendrier. Le tableau 1 met en evidence
les faits suivants
(a) L'effet de la baisse de la mortalit6 consid6r6 our la composition par Age n'est
pas tres important. Cette baisse produit un rajeunissement par la base de la pyramide
des Ages et pen de changement an sommet.
(b) La composition par Age vale peu an cants du temps et an moment au se stabilise
la mortalit6, elle est tires voisine de la composition par Age de in population stable
d'arrivee.
(c) 1.1 result? de (b) quo les taux de natalit6 et de mortalite ainsi quo le taux d'ac-
croissement naturel observes au moment cal la mortalite se stabilise sont pratiquement
3
TABLRAIT 1. Variations des &verses earaeteristiques dimographiques dans le passage
(Pune popultstion stable (a) a une attire population, stable, (b) dans le me ell la
mertallie ddereit et 04 la feeendlie rests constante.
Taux brut
Epoque? do mortalit6
(pour mine)
Taux brut
de natalitti
(pour mille)
Taux d'aoorols.
gement nature!
(pour mine)
Composition, pour 100, par
grand? groupos Wages (on
minks)
0-14 10-40 00 et plus
Population stable de
d6parta
tnoment oh la mortit.
lit6 oesse de diminuer?
23,3
9,8
40,0
43,0
22,7
33,8
43,1
44,9
52,5
50,2
4,4
4,0
Population stable d'ar.
riv6ob
9,0
43,8
33,2
40,0
49,0
4,4
a Population stable correspondant un taux brut do roproduction do 3,0 ot uno osporanoo do
vie It la naissanco do 40 ans.
b Population stable oorrospondant un !aux brut de roproduotion do 3,0 ot uno esperanco do
vie d la naissanoo do 00 ans.
? On a suppose quo to passage de la lr? b. la 20 mortalit6 so faisait on 40 ans.
6gaux aux taux correspondants observes dans la population stable von laquelle tend
la perspective.
Le calcul pr6cedent n'emt 6videmment qu'un cas particulier. Pour g6ndraliser les
r6sultats, ii faudrait multiplier des calculs analogues et imaginer toutes les baisses
possibles de la mortalit6. Le travail est on cours au Service de la Population des
Nations Unica. On s'est content6 ici do comparer de nombreuses populations stables,
&est-A-dire de comparer les points do depart et les points d'arriv6e de perspectives
analogues A, cellos qui font l'objet du tableau 1. Le tableau 2 donne les 616ments
permettant de faire cette comparaison en utilisant les populations stables calculdes
en associant deux A, deux, d'une part, six niveaux de f6condite correspondant respec-
tivoment aux six valeurs suivantes du taux brut de reproduction 1,0- 1,5- 2,0-
2,5- 3,0- 4,0, et d'autre part, six niveaux de mortalite correspondant respectivement
aux six valeurs suivantes de l'esp6rance de vie A, la naissance 20 ans- 30 ans- 40 ans-
50 ans- 60 ans- et 70 ans. Ce tableau montre quo les conclusions preadentes ont
vraisemblablement une portde gen6ralel.
On pout presenter les resultats de ht maniere quo void. Consid6rona une population
oit 1 fecondite reste constante et oit In inortalit6 baisse. Notons en passant quo
1 En toute rigueur, le tableau 2 no permet pas de connaltre ee qui se passe entre le point
d'arrivee et le point de d6part. Toutefois comma les compositions par Ago d'arriv6e et de d6part
sont voisines, il est peu probable quo in composition par age vane beaucoup darts l'intervalle;
sauf peut.6tre dans le cas d'une baisse tr6s rapide de la mortalit6. Co point sera 6elairci bient6t
grace aux travaux en cours du Service de la Population de l'Organisation des Nations Unica.
*-- 578393 MI Jean Bnurgeais-Pichat
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3
4
TABLEAU 2. atractdriatiques de populationo stables modeles orrespondant 4 divers
'avow de Irkonditd et de tmaraitd,
Taux
brut
do ro.
produo?
tion
Hop6ranoo
do vio 4
la 11410.
NR1100
(on annOom)
R6partit1on do la population par
groupom cl'Agem (on ann6om)
Moinm 00 ou Tons
15-50
do 15 plum Ages
Taux brut pour 1000
Aooroim.
Nan, Motto,
lit6 11t6 momont
naturol
Repartition dos (Wm do
5 anis et plum par groupom
d'Agom (on ann6om)
5-14 15-59 00 ot plum
4
20
45,2
52,4
2,4
100,0
03,8
53,0
10,8
19,0
08,3
12,1
3
38,5
57,0
3,9
100,0
40,5
50,2
0,3
14,7
08,4
10,9
2,5
34,1
00,7
5,2
100,0
42,9
49,1
- 0,3
11,8
(10,5
21,7
2
28,9
04,0
7,1
100,0
34,2
48,0
- 14,4
9,1
05,4
25,5
1,5
22,0
00,1)
10,5
100,0
24,8
49,7
-24,0
0,2
01,3
32,5
1
14,8
08,3
10,9
100,0
14,0
54,4
- 39,8
3,3
53,0
43,1
4
30
48,2
49,2
2,0
100,0
50,8
35,3
24,5
19,5
04,7
15,8
3
41,3
54,5
4,1
100,0
47,7
33,7
14,0
14,5
03,4
22,1
2,5
30,9
57,0
5,5
100,0
40,0
33,2
7,4
11,0
01,0
20,8
2
31,4
00,9
7,7
100,0
32,7
33,0
- 0,0
8,7
58,4
32,0
1,5
24,7
03,8
11,5
100,0
23,8
35,0
-11,2
5,7
53,0
41,3
1
10,3
05,0
18,7
100,0
14,0
39,9
- 25,0
2,0
44,0
53,1
4
40
50,0
47,3
.2,7
100,0
57,3
24,1
33,2
18,8
00,8
20,4
3
43,1
52,5
4,4
100,0
40,0
23,3
22,7
13,0
58,1
28,3
2,5
38,5
55,0
5,9
100,0
30,3
23,2
10,1
10,8
55,4
33,8
2
82,0
58,8
8,3
100,0
31,7
23,7
8,0
7,0
51,1
41,0
1,5
25,0
01,0
12,5
100,0
23,1
25,0
- 2,5
5,0
44,0
50,4
1
17,0
02,0
20,4
100,0
13,0
30,9
- 17,3
2,4
35,0
02,0
4
51,5
45,8
2,7
100,0
55,7
10,2
39,5
17,5
50,5
20,0
3
44,0
50,9
4,5
100,0
44,9
15,8
29,1
12,3
52,3
35,4
2,5
40,0
53,9
0,1
100,0
38,4
10,0
22,4
9,5
48,8
41,7
2
34,2
57,2
8,0
100,0
31,1
10,8
14,3
0,7
43,7
40,0
1,5
27,0
60,0
13,0
100,0
22,7
18,8
3,0
4,1
30,7
50,2
1
17,8
60,7
21,5
100,0
13,4
24,3
-10,0
1,0
27,3
70,8
4
00,4
52,9
44,4
2,7
100,0
54,1
9,4
44,7
14,8
51,1
34,1
3
40,0
49,0
4,4
100,0
43,8
9,0
34,2
9,0
45,5
44,0
2,5
41,4
52,0
0,0
100,0
37,7
10,1
27,0
7,4
41,3
51,3
2
35,0
55,8
8,0
100,0
30,0
11,1
19,5
5,0
35,9
59,1
1,5
28,2
58,7
. 13,1
100,0
22,5
13,5
0,0
2,0
29,0
68,1
1
18,7
59,4
21,9
100,0
13,3
19,0
- 5,7
1,3
20,0
78,1
4
70,2
54,1
43,3
2,0
100,0
52,7
4,1
48,0
0,2
42,8
48,0
3
47,3
4.144
4,3
100,0
st.o?n
4,8
88,1
5,7
36,1
58,2
2,5
42,7
51,4
5,9
100,0
37,0
5,5
31,5
4,0
31,9
04,1
2
30,8
54,7
8,5
100,0
30,1
0,8
23,3
7,6
20,8
70,6
1,5
20,3
57,7
13,0
100,0
22,3
9,4
12,0
1,4
21,1
77,5
1
19,5
58,0
21,9
100,0
13,3
15,1
- 1,8
0,6
14,5
84,9
5
&est le efts de la majorit6 des populations dos pays sous?d6voloppds A l'houro m4110110.
Supposons qui4 un instant dorm& la mortal1t6 mese do baisser et roste constanto au
nivoau atteint A cot Instant. Au bout d'un -certain temps, la population atteint un
dtat stable.
Los indications pr6c6dentes montront qu'au moment ah Von imagine la stabilisation
do la mortalit6, la population est d6j4 tree voisine de cot (Stat stable. Il en Moult()
qu'une population ott la f6condit6 rest? constant? ot ott la mortalit6 baisso pout Um
assimilde, A ohaque instant, 4 tine population stable. En d'autres tormes, dans Cos
populations, Ii y a 4 claque instant entre la composition par Age, le taux de natalltd,
lo taux do mortalitd et le taux d'aeoroissoment, approximativoment los moms rela-
tions quo dans uno population stable.
La population a structure par age invariable
On pout encore justifier l'assimilation dos populations dos pays sous.d6voloppos
des populations stables de la manibre suivante. Dans cos pays on oonstato on offot
quo la composition par Ago do la population resto pratiquement invariable au cours
du temps'. Considdrons done um population de composition par Age constant?.
Soit a l'ago des individus et c(a) la composition par Age. Romarquons d'abord quo
dans une toile population, le taux brut do natalit6 est constant. Il ost on effot 6gal
A e (0).
D6signons A l'instant t par Pe l'offectif de la population, rt to taux annuol d'aeorois-
soment naturel et it(a) la fonotion de survie.
L'effectif dos porsonnes d'age a est 6gal A Pic (a), Un an aprbs, ones ont rage a -I- 1
ot lour effootif est
lt(a+ 1)
Pic (a) to
(a)
I La f000ndit6 des populations des pays sous-d6voloppos no pout Otro consid6r6o comme con.
stanto qu'on promiero approximation. Dans la r6a1it6, oat? f6condit6 vario d'une ann6e l'autre.
Mobs, jusqu'iol, cos fluotuo,tions n'ont jamais 6t6 tres grandes. Hiles mit 6t6 on par4oulier tres
inf6rieuros aux variations do is. mortalit6. Nous n'on tiondrons pas compte 6tont donn6 quo
nous eherohons d6torminor un niveau mom do f6condit6,
Cato constatation pout parattre contro,dictoiro avec co quo nous avons tilt plus haut sur
l'effot dos mouvements do in mortalit6 sur in structure par Ago dos populations. La rnorta1it6 a
baiss6 ot continue a baisser dans los pays sous?d6volopp6s. On devrait done observer un rajounisi
somont par la base do is. pyramid? des Ages. En fait, le tableau 2 montre quo l'offot de rajounisso.
mont ost tros foible, Ii faut quo la mortalit6 baisso beaucoup pour quo cot offet soit sensible, Dans
los populations stablos eorrospondant au taux brut do reproduction de 3,0, le pourcontage des
personnos de 0 a 14 ails vat+, do in maniere suivanto avec le niveau de mortalit6
Eap&ttittiti do vio it h4. naissance on ann6os . . 30, 40 50 00,4 70,2
Pouroontttgo dos porsonnes do 0 it 14 /ma 41,3 43,1 44,6 46,0 47,3.
Dans Is. pratiquo cola roviont it dire quo les taux do f6condito par Ago sont constants. Si
l'un variait, II faudrait en offet quo los autros variant on sons inverse ot clans dos proportions
belles quo los cons6quenees de CO8 variations sur lo taux brut de natalit6 soiont finalement nuls,
Dos variations do eetto nature no so roncontront jamais pratiquornerit.
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0
qui ost aussi dgal h c (a + 1) Pt (1 + rt) o (a + 1),
dono
it(a I 1) (a + 1)
On a
On tiro facilomont do cede relation l'egalit6 suivanto
(a) a c (a)
TIT) Ea (1 + rt "T6c
Si Von introduit la notation continuo on pout aussi ecriro
lt(a).
o(0) it (0)
Co qui montro quo la composition par ago consider& ost idontiquo b, la composition
par Age d'une population stable oalouleo avoo la mortalit6 ot lo taux annuol d'ac-
croissoment naturol obsorv6 h l'instant E. En d'autros tormes, dans uno population
do composition par Age invariable, ii y a h chaquo instant los mOnies relations quo
dans uno population stablo ontro la structure par ago, la fecondit6, la mortalit6 ot le
taux d'acoroissoment naturel.
C'est code possibilite d'assimilor los populations dos pays sous-develop* h dos
populations stables qui est h la base dos methodos quo nous allons maintonant exposer.
Los possibilites d'application sont trim varies. Elles depondont dos donnees dont on
dispose et l'on pourrait prosquo dire quo ohaquo ?as particulior a sa propre method?
d'analyse. On so limit? ioi au cas o? l'on dispose au moms do doux recensements par
trop eloignes Fun de l'autrel et l'on so propose d'obtenir uno estimation des niveaux
moyons de riatalite et do mortalit6 pour la period? entre los deux reconsoments. Cos
estimations se rapportent par consequent h des ?ques souvent assoz 6loignees du
temps present, Pour connaltre la situation demographique aetuello, ii font done
partir des estimations passees, calnuler de nouvelles estimations pour les annees
recentes, C'est iA uno operation qui a ses propres methodes, Elle sera ici laisseo de
cote.
L'utilisation des populations stables modeles
Cotte premibre inethode2 repose sur les hypotheses suivantes
(a) La fecondite dans les populations considerees est peu variable, et pout litre
consider& comme pratiquoment constant?,
1 C'est un efts qui se rencontre tr6s souvent dans in, pratique,
2 D'aprbs les chiffres du tableau 2, il est possible de montrer gush, cheque population stable,
c'est.h.dire A cheque couple de valour do l'esp6rance de vie i la naissance et du taux brut de
reproduction correspond une structure par Ago et une seule. Par cons6quent, inversement,
cheque structure par Age correspond un aeul couple do velours de l'esporance de vie la naissance
et du taux brut de reproduction. En assitnilant la structure par Age d'une population r6elle avec
la structure par Ago d'une population stable du tableau 2 (ou d'une population stable interpol6e
entre deux populations stables du tableau 2), on pout done on d6duire les niveaux de f6condit6
40
'roux brut
di mortollt4 20
(pour 1000)
ooe#
35
oei
,/??
i#0
Volours de p ?#
oo
oo#
#e
?#
#
30 "1 Valour' de r
? oe?
000?#
ioeo
eeeee
#
###
25 -
o ? i
???
o#
# Ao
#
20 4 ,
o/
e?
ei#
3, # Valour' do r
15
10
020 25 30 35 40 45 50
GitAVIIIQUE 1. Lignos p constant et lignes b r constant dans l'onsemble dos populations stables
du tableau 2.
Taux brut
da natallta
(pour 1000)
(b) La mortalit6 vane on suivant le schema des tables de mortalite modeles,
(c) Los reconsements de population donnent tine evaluation assez precise de la
structure par Ago. Toutefois, pour tenir oompte du fait que les reconsements sousesti-
ment generalement le nombro dos enfants on bas-ago, on consider? seuloment la
composition par Age de la population do 5 ans et plus et l'on fait choix commo indice
do la composition par Ago du rapport p des personnes do 5 h 14 ans au nombro total
dos personnes do 5 ans et plus'. Dans les pays oit les migrations internationales sent
et de tnortalit6 de la population r6olle. Male ce n'est I qu'une theorique. En effet,
?mune nous l'avona d6j4 tilt, la structure par Age out tr68 putt sensible aux mouvements de la
mortalit6 si bion qu'une impr6cision relativement faible do In structure par Ago de In population
thelle, entrain() uno grand? improcision dans la d6termination du niveau de la mortalit6. Autrement
tilt, in. connaissanco de in, settle structure par Age, th6oriquement suffisante pour obtenir les
niveaux do mortalit6 et de f6condit6 se r6v6le pratiquement itnpuissante. Si lion vont obtonir
des 6valuations convenables ii faut avoir d'autres informations on plus dos renseignements quo
l'on possbdo d6jh sur la structure par Age. On s'est place) lei dans le cue oi l'on connatt la structure
par Age et le taux d'accroissement nature'.
I On a 6videmment la choix entre tine infinit6 d'indices de composition par Age. On a ehoisi
le group? 5-14 am parce qu'il comprend dos personnes qui sont g6n6ralement bion rocenges
et qui no sant pas beaucoup affect6es par les mouvements migratoires.
10* - 678393 151 Jean Bouroeo18?Piehat
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importantes, uno oorrootion est apportee i la structure par Age pour tonir compto
do owl migrations,
(d) Los reconsements successifs oorriges au bosoin pour tenir compte des migrations
donnont une bonne mosure du taux d'aeoroissoment nature], (Cool suppose done
qu'on dispose d'au moms deux roconsements,)
On a oonstruit un cliagrammo (graphique 1) illustrant comment varient dans los
populations stables preo6dominont &fillies los valours de p ot do r on fonetion dos
taux bruts do mortalite et de natalit6, Le prooddo est aiors tres simple. Supposons
par exemple qu'on dispose pour un pays donn6 do dour r000nsomonts su000ssifs
rospootivomont oreoutos on 1940 ot 1950. On oaloulo la valour do p an r000nsomont do
1940 et an r000nsemont do 1950 at on proud la valour moyonno p?,. La oomparaison
dos deux r000nsomonts, oompto tonu si bosoin est dos mouvomonts migratoiros,
nous donne lo taux d'aeoroissomont nature! r. On lit sur le diagramme au point d'intor?
section dos lignos p?, ot r los valours dos taux do mortalit6 ot do natalite. On admot
quo cos taux sont los taux moyons do la period? entre leg doux reoensoments.
Les applications pratiques
Dans la zone ofi so situent los applications pratiquesi lo diagramme No. 1 se present?
sous la forme do deux reseauk de droites paralleles. Il est done possible de lo trans.
former on un graphique du typo nomogramme A points aligns (graphique 2). Sur
l'eohollo de droite on mere le taux d'aooroissoment naturel, 6va1u6 comme on l'a
dit A l'aide do la oomparaison des deux reconsements. Sur 1'6oholle du milieu on roper?
'Indio? de la composition par Ago p (indiee moyen des deux reconsements). On joint
par uric droite les deux points obtenus. Cate droite coupe 1'6?11011e de gauche en
un point ofi l'on lit le taux brut de natalit6, Le taux brut do mortalit6 s'obtiont evidem-
ment on soustrayant le taux d'aeoroissement naturel du taux brut de natalit6 ainsi
obtenu.
Si l'on prefer?, on pout aussi utiliser in formule numerique suivante, equivalent?
an nomogramme 1, ofi p est exprim6 on % et r en %o
3,76 p 44,88 ? r
1,076
Pronons un exemple. Celui do In Colombie pour laquelle on dispose de reeensements
en 1938 et 1951. Les statistiques stir la nationalit6 des habitants montrent quo les
migrations internationales sont n6g1igeables au cours do cette p6riodo.
En 1938 on a p 0,314.
En Ira51 on a 2) ? 0,313.
La valour moyenne p,, 0,3135.
Le taux d'aceroissement calcul 6 en comparant les deux recensements est prig
comma une estimation du taux d'accroissement nature!. On trouve
I Etappelons quo is. methode no s'applique quo dans des populations h f6condit6 constant?,
c'est.h.diro pratiquoment les pays h forte fecondit6.
?
IN
55 %0
'Tux brut
de malice
A
5-14 ans
orri-r-FM
-.: )3
32
7.: 31
30
-1-29
28
--- 27
GRAPHTQIJE 2.
%.
Taint
d'accrolsav
mini natural
?40
miles
?11.?
NEW
5.5 20
?.10
9
r 22,3%0.
La droite joignant les deux points eorrespondant respeotivement A, ces valeurs de
r at de p coupe l'echelle des taux de natalit6 en un point correspondant d un taux
brut de natalit6.
b 47,3%?.
Le taux brut de mortalit6 est done
m 11,3%0 ? 22,3%o 25,0%0.
Ii lui correspondl une esp6ratice de vie A, Is. naissance de 38,5 ans. Les taux bruts
morns de natalit6 et de mortalit6 enregistres en Colombie de 1939 11 1950 sont
indiqu6s dans le tableau 3. La comparaison de ces valeurs avec les estimations
1 L'esp6mnoe de vie h, is. naissanco correspondant au taux de mortalito se ?alai& par inter.
polation des ?Wires du tableau 2,
0
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TABLEAU 3. Mouvement natural de la population enregiatrde en Colombia entre leo
deux derniers reoensementa.
Population r000ns6o lo
111V111-1938 8 701 810
Population r000nsdo lo 9-V-1951 . 11,548.177
Moos ammo's moyons onrogistrds
do 1030 4 1950 154 901
Naissanoos annuollos moyonnos
onrogistroos do 1930 h 1050 . . 331490
Tux brut. anntiol moyon do morta1it6 (pour 1000) 15,1
Taux brut annuol moyon do natalitti (pour 1000) 33,1
proadentes fait apparattre pour la p6riodo consid6r6o un sous-onrogistrqmont des
naissanoes do 30,0 % ot un sous-enrogistroment des &nes de 38,0 %.
Lo sous-enrogistroment des naissances ot dos d6ces qu'on vient do mottro on
6vidonoo on Colombio est loin d'otro partioulior A cc pays. On trouvo un r6sultat
analoguo dans la plupart dos pays sous-d6volopp6s. Dovant tan sous-enrogistroment
dune toile amplour, on est on doit do s'ivitorroger sur hi validit6 do la m6thodo et il
apparatt indispensable do ellen:311er r d'autres moyens uno confirmation des
resultats.
Mithode basso 8,7 l'invariance de la structure par age
La validit6 do l'hypothese st .vant laquelle hi mortalit6 mit dans les populations
consid6r6es conform6ment an sch6ma des tables do mortalit6 modeles pout prAtor
discussion. On a vu tnut-h-l'houre qu'on pouvait assimiler A dos populations stables
TABLEAU 4. Compootvton de la population de la Colonthie par grands groupes d'dges
aux tro:s derniers recensements,
Oroupos d'agos
(on annees)
Date des reconsemonts
14-X-1918 5-VII-1038
9-V-1951
Moins de 1
4,0
3,3
3,7
1- 4
11,3
12,0
13,1
5-9
13,1
14,3
14,0
10-14
11,0
12,3
12,0
15-19
9,7
10,3
10,2
20-29
17,0
17,5
17,0
30-39
13,2
12,2
11,7
40-49
8,7
8,1
7,0
50-59
5,2
5,0
5,2
60-09
3,3
3,1
3,2
70-79
1,4
1,3
1,4
80-89
0,7
0,5
0,5
90 os plus
0,2
0,2
0,1
Thus ages
100,0
100,0
100,0
11
TABLIDAII Calcul de la table do ourvio de 14 Colombia au?dooaua do 7,4 ans pour la
2)61041938-1951,
Compomition Far
Ago Moyonno
1938-1951
o (a)
Ago moyon
-
(on onn6o)
14,15
7,4
12,15
12,4
10,25
17,6
17,211
25,0
11,05
33,0
8,00
45,0
5,10
65,0
3,15
05,0
1,35
74,0
0,60
88,0
0,15
96,0
Prodult
FC4
(r 22,3 '4)
0,1073
0,2788
0,3902
0,5575
0,7805
1,0035
1,2206
1,4494
1,0726
1,8956
2,1185
(ra) (Logo, o)
ra
o"u(a)
1(a)
(fonotion
do survio)
0,072030
1,182
10,725
1000
0,121000
1,321
10,060
900
0,109483
1,477
15,142
905
0,242110
, 1,740
90,124
901
0,338007
2,183
20,082
779
0,438815
2,728
21,822
052
0,532002
3,409
17,387
519
(1;020510
4,201
13,422
401
0,720368
6,320
7,189
216
0,823205
0,060
3,328
100
0,020053
8,319
1,248
37
les populations do structure par Ago invariable sans faire appol, pour justifier ootto
assimilation, aux tables do mortalito modeles. Or la stabilit6 do structure par Ago
d'une population est un fait d'observation indisoutable. Lo tableau 4 montre qu'on
Colombie la structure par Ago a tres pou vari6 an ?ours dos trois derniors reconsements.
En multipliant cette structure par Age, pratiquement invariable, par la fonotion
exp (ria) oi rt est le taux d'accroissoment naturel A l'instant E, on obtient, A un facteur
constant pres, la fonetion de survie 11(a) A l'instant 1.
Pour tenir compte du fait quo les enfants sont on g6n6ral mal menses, on a limit6
le calcul aux personnes do 5 ans et plus et la table do survie obtenue commence A,
7,5 ans. On a pris pour r le taux annuel d'aeoroissement donn6 par la comparaison
des deux dorniers recensements (22,)%). Le tableau 5 donne le d6tail du calcul.
Dans la table de survie ainsi calcul6e, l'esperanee de vie A 7 ans est do 47,9 amides.
Dans les tables de mortalit6 modeles, la correspondance entre l'esp6rance de vie
la naissance et l'eAperance de vie A, 7 est la suivante (Tableau 6).
TABLEAU 0. Correspondance entre l'esperance de vie la naisaance a l'esperanee de
vie cl 7,5 an dans les tables de mortalito modUes.
Esp6ranee vie 4 Esp6ranee do vie
la nnitzanco 4 7- ans
(en ann6os) (on annees)
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
33,2
40,0
47,8
54,4
00,4
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On oat aimi oondult A admottro pour la Colombia do 1938 A 1951, uno mortalit6
tous Ages donnant uno omptiranoo do vie A la naismanoo do 40 ans, Ix tableau 2 mind
do oaloulor los taux 'louts do natalito ot do mortal1t6 correspondants. On trouvo
b iR445,0%0, m
La nouvelle 6va1uat1on ost rolativement ind6pondoanto dos tablos do mortalit6
modblos, Collos.ol no sont on offot utiliMos quo pour passor do la morta1it6 au.dossus
do 74 ans A la mortalit6 tous Ages, L'acoord entre los deux estimations montro done
quo dans lo oas do la Colombia l'utilisation dos tables do mortalito modblos oat
parfaitomont valablo, Par oontro, dans los doux in6thodos, l'hypothbso sur l'oxaotitudo
dos roconsomonts oat la m6mo ot l'acoord dos rtimultats ?o pormot pas do firer uno
conclusion sur la validit6 do ootto hypothose,
La structure par age des ads
La structure par Age dos ads cat uno source do ronseignomonts ind6pendanto dos
r000nsements, Il arrive qu'on la connaisse 11101110 quand l'enrogistroment dos d6olis
oat incomplot. II suffit on offet quo le sous.enrogistroment soit A pen pi's le memo A
chaquo Age. Le tableau 2 montro quo pour un nivoau do f6condit6 donn6, ootte
r6partition par Ago vatic avoo la mortalit6 ot lo tableau 7 donno tine vuo un pen plus
&Stain& du ph6nomenol. On volt quo pour un nivoau do f6condit6 donn6, la baisse
de la mortalit6 aoorott in proportion dos d6ees do personnes Ag6es ot diminuo la
proportion des d6ces des porsonnos jeunes. On observe uno sorto do pivotement de
la structure par Ago autour du group? d'Ages 50-09 ans. L'6tudo do la structure par
Ago dos d6cbs nous renseigne done sur los niveaux de fkondit6 ot de mortalit6, Si
l'un de 008 niveaux est donne, l'autro est d6tormin6, D'uno facon plus pr6o1se, on
pout, pour une composition par Age des d6c6 donne, d6torminer uno sale do couples
de valeurs dos taux bruts de natalit6 et do mortalitd tels quo dans les populations
stables modbles eorrespondantes los tikes aient la composition par Age consid6r6o,
Le graphique 3 a 6t6 trac6 do ?ate facon pour diverses r6partitions par Age des
does, cos repartitions tant rep6r6es par les pourcentages dos aces, ?es r6partitions
6tant rep6r6es par les pourcentages des d6ces de 60 ans et plus dans l'ensemble des
&Sees de 5 ans et plus.
Parmi les d6oes de 5 ans et plus enregistr6s en Colombie de 1930 A, 1950, il y a ell
35,5 % de d6ces de 60 am et plus. La courbe marqu6e 35 sur le graphique 3 correspond
done assez bion an cas do in Colombie, On volt quo le point A correspondant aux
couples do valeurs des taux bruts de mortalit6 ot de nata1it6 observ6s est assez loin
de cetto eourbe aussi bion d'ailleurs quo le point B correspondant aux couples do
valeurs des taux estim6s d'apres les deux m6thodes pr6c6dentes.
Si l'on admet quo la r6partition enregistr4e des d6ces par Age est exacte, et quo les
taux de natalit6 ot de mortalit6 enregistr6s sont des limites inf6rieure des vrais
I Pour tenir ?myth du fait quo les d6e6s des jeunes enfants sont souvent mal aelar6s, on s'est
limit6 dans ees deux tableaux aux (Nobs de 5 ans et plus.
13
TABLEAU 7.
(A) Rdpartition par groupes didges des &de de 6 ans et plus dans paire populations
stables corresponclant a un taux brut de reproduction de 8,0 et 4 quatre niveaux de
mortalitd dormant des espdrances de vie a la naiseance reepectivement Oates 4 80, 40,
60 ei 00 ans,
(B) Edpartition, par groom d'dge des ddees de 6 ane et plus enregietrde en Colombie
de 1939 4 1960.
Groupos (Pages
to
A
Taux brut do reproduction 3,0
Hsi-Aram do vic it la naissanco (on anneos)
3u ' 4U 50 06
Woes onrogistr6s
on Colomblo
do 1930 a 1950
5-9
905
852
700
014
820
10-14
541
511
402
377
393
15-19
007
050
001
502
480
20-24
775
770
713
587
040
25-29
701
712
032
509
009
30-34
734
050
559
450
539
35-39
712
000
512
418
004
40-49
1.380
1.180
1.028
908
1,292
50-59
1.310
1.243
1,190
1,177
1.071
00-09
1,181
1.315
1,429
1.573
1.283
70 ot plus
1.033
1.511
2,108
2.884
2.203
Tous Ages
10.000
10.000
10.000
10.000
10.000
Taux brut do mortalit6
(pour 1000)
33,7
23,3
15,8
9,0
15,0
Taux brut de natalit6
(pour 1000)
47,7
40,0
44,9
43,8
4111.011??????????10
taux do nata1it6 et do mortalit6, tous los couples do valeurs lues sur lo segment CD
do la oourbe marqu6o 35 % sont compatibles avec la repartition des tikes enrogistres,
En C l'enregistrement des naissanoes est complet et il y a 49 % do sous.enregistroment
des d6ces. En D l'enregistrement des d6obs est complot et il y a 11,4% de sous.
enregistromont dos naissances. Dans l'intervalle, ii y a A. la fois sous.enregistroment
dos naissances et des dikes.
Mals tout cod suppose quo l'age an (likes est convenablement declare. Or on salt
quo trbs souvont l'Age au d6obs est exag6r6. tine toile exag6ration produit le nAme
effet qu'une baisse de la mortalit6 Ole accroit la proportion des d6cbs aux Ages
61ev6s et diminue la proportion des d6ces aux Ages jounes. Si l'on tient compte de cc
ph6nombne de l'exag6ration de l'Age an d6ces, co sont tous les couples do valeurs
lues dans Fake non hachure? du graphique 3 qui sont compatibles1 avec la composition
par Age observ6. Autant dire quo cette composition par Age n'apporte aucun renseigne.
1 En pratique les taux brute de natalit6 et de mortalit6 sent aussi limit6s supessieurement. On
pout admettre quo lee taux de natalite sent 'Messieurs it 130 % les taux de mortalit6 40%?.
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'Taus di
mortalici
pour 1000
40
30
20
10
30%
25%
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20%
aux do
ft at
pour 1000
40
SO
GRAMM'S) 3. Courbos do variation du taux brut de mortalit6 on fonotion du taux brut de
natal1t6 dans des populations stables modblos, pour divers pouroontages des d6cos do 60 ans ot
plum parmi los Mobs do 5 ans et plus.
ment supplementaire sur le niveau do la mortalit6 tant qu'on no connalt non du
degre d'exageration de l'Age au deces, Il est done pormis d'interpreter la repartition
des dikes onregistres en Colombie do 1030 d 1950 comme resultant d'une exageration
do Page an (Webs, la vraio repartition 6tant la repartition stable correspondant hla
combinaison des taux do natalit6 et de mortalit6 estimes respectivement d 47,3 pour
1000 et 25,0 pour 1000.
On pout rdime par co moyen evaluer les effets de l'exageration de Page an deces
sur la composition par Age des deces. Le tableau 8 present? un essai d'uno semblable
evaluation. L'exageration de l'Age parait exister h tons les ages. Chaque groupe
d'ages molt des deces qui normalement appartiennent aux groupes d'ages inferieurs
et deverse des deces dans le groupe d'ages superieurl. De 35 a GO ans, les deux m
1 Pour rendre compte do la r6partition par Age dos cl6e6s enregistres en Colo
d'exag6ration de l'Age au d6c6s devrait jouer de la manibre suivante :
Poureentage des dde6s d'un groupe dedgea de 6 an paasant d
ieur, par suite de l'exagdratto
Groupe d'Aga on linnet) . 5-9 10-14
Pourcontage
30
OUVO-
bie, be mocanisme
WM le groupe didges de 6 ana aupdr.
n de lidge au deda.
Ui
TABLEAU 8. &Rai d'dvaluation de l'exagdration de Me au ddea en Colombia de 1039
4 1050.
?mum
d'Ago
Mobs ono.
DtIo66 dans la DiffOronoos
"Pliinti"Colornbeon valours
Atabloa 1939 15, 1950 nboolues
DiffOronoos on %
do la rOpartition
par Ago dos
(Moos onrogititrOs
5-9
801
820
041
5,0
10-14
516
303
123
31,3
15-19
652
480
100
34,2
20-24
771
640
131
20,3
25-29
720
609
111
18,2
30-34
664
530
126
23,2
35-39
11623
604
191
40-49
50-59
60-69
1,213
1,255
1,293
1.292
1.071
1.283
- 70
1841 10
3,1
70 et plus
1,432
2,203
-830
-86,7
15 ans ot plus
10.000
10.000
Taux brut do mortalit6 (pour 1000) 25,0
Taux brut do natalit6 (pour 1000) 40,3
a Obtonuo par interpolation dos populations stables du tableau 2 do tollo facon
brut do mortalito soit ogal A 25 %,
uo lo taux
ments so componment A pen prbs et finalement tout so passe comme si environ 30
pour 100 des d6c6s de 5 h 34 ans passaient dans le groupo do 70 ans et plusl.
' En resume, lh oil Pon a des raisons do croire A l'inexactitude de ia declaration d'age
des (Webs, on pout interpreter do fa ons hies diverses les ropartitions des decbs par
Age observees et l'on pout on tirer A peu prbs n'importe quell? conclusion sur le niveau
de la mcAtalit6 tent qu'on no sait Hen sur le degre d'exageration de rage an (Mobs.
La comparai son des reeensements par groupe d'ages
La comparaison do deux recensements successifs par group? d'ages est un moyen
tres commode d'6valuer in mortalit6 quo,nd on no dispose pas de statistiques du
mouvement de in population. Dans un pays ott le sous-enregistroment des deals es t
Au.dossus do 30 titp ii faudrait done quo in totalit6 des doc6s de chaquo group? d'Agos de
5 ans passent dans lo groupe d'Ages suporieur. Cost co qu'on observerait si A partly de cot 5,ge,
l'exag6ration de l'Age au d6ces consistait A donner nu dee6d6 un Age 6gal au multiple do 5 im?
m6diatement supOrieur A l'Ago r6e1, Cost IA un comportement qui n'est pas impensable surtout
si l'on tient compte de l'attraction qu'exercent les multiples do 5 dans los d6clarations d'Age,
1 Tout en qui pr6chde suppose quo lo sous.onregistrement des docbs est proportionnellement
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
etc,
le m6me A chaque Ago. En r6alit6, on mesure lei l'effet global de l'exag6ration de l'Age au d6c6s
50
60
80
160
100
etc,
et des variations du pourcentage d'enregistrement avec Vligo.
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do l'ordro do 50 pour 100, uno tollo comparalson dolt portnottro do mottro on (Widow)
Co sous-onrogistroment,
Lo tableau 9 donuts lo eldmonts Won calml do co genre pour la Colombio ontro
los deux roconsoments do 1938 et 1951. Militant du r000nsomont do 1938, on a soustralt
los doobo obsorves entre los deux r000nsoments par groupo do generation. On a oalould
aim' la population qu'on auralt observe? au second r000nsomont on l'absonce do
tout() migration et silos deobs avalont et6 oonvonablomont onrogistres.
Dans un premier oaloul, on a utilisd los Mobs tots gulls ont 6t6 enrogistrds (partio
superiouro du tableau 9). Dans un second oaloul on a utilise los Webs enregistres,
corriges do l'oxageration do Page an deobs (partio inferiouro du tableau 9). Pour
cotto correction, on s'ost sorvi dos resultats obtonus pr6o6dommont (voir tableau 8),
On a admis quo l'oxageration do rage an deo& so romonalt h faire passer dans lo
oinquibmo groupo do generation (05 ans et plus on 1938), 30 % dos &Sobs dos deux
promibrs groupos do generations (5-19 ans ot 20-34 ans on 1938). Lo tableau 9 met
en evidonoe des differences importantes entre la population oalouleo ot la population
reconseo,
A priori cos differonoos pouvont 6tro duos trois causes (a) dos mouvomonts
migratoiros, (b) dos orrours au reconsements, (c) dos orrours clans l'enrogistroment dos
deobs.
Los migrations out 6t6 negligeables entre la Colombio ot l'etranger au cours do
la period? consider6o ot ion pout &later cede cause, Pour etudior les doux autres,
ii ost utile do commencer par quelques considerations theoriques.
Soit k ot it respeotivernent les proportions do sous-onrogistroment aux ler et 26
reconsemonts et soit q la proportion do sous-onrogistroment des deobs, Pour un
group? do generations donne, la population oaloul6o h la date du 20 recensement sera
P1(1 ? k) ? D (1 q)
ot la difference entre la population recenseo au 2? rocensement et la population caloulee
sera :
E Pi(1. k) D(1 ?q)?P2(1 ?h).
Co qui s'eorit :
E ta, 131(h k) D (q (1)
Introduisons la population means& au ler reconsement P; P(1 k) et les deobs
onregistres D' MI 0(1 ? q). L'equation (1) s'eorit
E -- 1
EP-E-
k , T.,,q h ==, "
k 1? q
(2)
Admettons, a titre d'hypothese de travail, quo it, k et q soient les m6mes pour tous
les groupes de generations, &est-A-dire quo le sous-enregistrement soit independant
de Page. Pour chaque groupe de generations, on derira tine equation du type (2)
et on obtiendra, Si n est le nombre de groupes de generations, un system de n
equations h 2 ineonnues,
17
TABLRAt7 9. Colombia. Comparaieon par grouped Algae de la population monde en
1951 avec la population calculde en eouetrayant de la population remade en 1938 lea
dale enregiatree entre lea deux reconemente Irea en millions).
1
2
3
4
5
a
9
Ago on re.
consemont
du
II-VH.1938
Effootif
1111 11000n.
somont do
1938 dog
groups do
generations
ayant au
reoonsomont
do 1938 l'Age
indique dans
la promiero
colonno
Deoes on.
rogistres
ontro los
doux r000n.
foments dans
log groupos
do genera.
tions
Population
oalouleo h
la date du
rocongemont
Population
r000ngeo to
9?V?1951
Difference
Differonoo
on % do la
population
r000ngeo on
1938
Difference
on % dos
(Woos cure.
gistreg
ontro los
doux re-
oensornontg
5-10 ans
3.209
107
3.042
2.884
158
4,9
95,2
20-34 ans
2.043
1.70
1.807
1.090
177
8,8
100,0
35-40 ans
1.238
174
1.004
950
114
9,2
08,5
50-04 ansa
035
185
450
350
100
15,7
54,1
05 ans ot +
234
215
19
44
- 24
ans ot +
7.350
017
0.442
5.918
524
7,1
57,1
Deo& on.
rogistrom
ontro les
deux ro?
consoments,
corriges do
l'exageration
do l'ttge au
tikes
0
Differences
corrigeos
do l'exage?
ration do
au
deoes
Differences
oorrigeos
on % tie la
population
r000nsee
on 1038
Differences
corrigoes
on % dos
deces onre?
gistres
entro los
deux ro-
consoments
5-19 ans
217
108
3,4
49,8
20-34 ans
229
124
6,1
54,1
35-49 arts
174
114
9,2
05,5
50-04 ans
185
100
15,7
54,1
05 nns et +
112
78
33,3
09,0
ti ans et +
917
524
7,1
57,1
Austiessus de 50 ans les oltiffres des reoensements ?tit 6t6 /Oust& pour tenir compte de
l'attraotion de l'Age 00 tuts et de l'exageration de l'Age aux Ages 61eves. On a pris comme
repartition par Age njust6e, la repartition par Ago d'une population stable correspondent. h un
taux brut do reproduction de 3,0 et tine esperance de vie it itt naissanco de 40 ans.
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y . g4 ot 1 ? q
Si notro hypothbse est exaote, dans un systbmo do coordonnees OX et 0 Y, los
droites d'equation (2) soront oonoourrantos on un point d'ordonnee (q ? h)/(1 q)
ot d'absoisso (h k)/(i. k).
En fait, on no pout pas s'attendre h obtonir dos droites passant absolumont par
lo memo point, no serait-co quo paroo quo l'hypotheise adoptoo do l'invarianco du
sous-enrogistroment avoo l'Ago West sans douto qu'uno approximation. On pout du
moms s'attondro A co quo los diverges droitos oiroonsorivont un polygon? par trop
etondu dans loquol on pules? determiner sans trop d'ambigilitd un oontro dont los
coordonndes pourront otre prises oommo tine solution oonvonablo du system? d'equa-
tion A resoudre.
Voyons comment 80 present? pratiquomont lo problbmo pour la Colombio. En
utilisant los resultats du second calcul, &est-A-dire lo oaloul portant sur les deobs
oorriges do l'exageration do l'Age au &as, lo systbme d'equation A resoudre s'eorit :
108 gm 3.209 X + 217 Y
124 MI 2.043 X + 229 Y
114'- 1.238 X + 174 Y
100 635 X + 185 Y
100 635 X + 185 Y
78 234 X + 112 Y
Los pourcentages caloules dans les deux dernibres colonnes du tableau 0 sont
los ordonnees et los abeisses A l'origine des droites du system? I. Le graphique 4
montro comment so present? la resolution graphique de co systbme. Los cinq droites
du system? I circonscrivent un polygon? de faiblo etendue, Le point .111' d'abseisse
nulle et d'ordonn6e 60 % fournit uno assez bonne solution du system? I. On a done
Co qui s'eorit
h? k A
1 - kg22 V
1 ? 2
h k,
qe. 0,375 + ?h .}
1,6
Nous pouvons on tirer deux conclusions
(a) Les deux recensemonts pouvent done etre consider& comme etant de memo
precision (h k)
(b) Le pourcentage de sous-enregistrement de aces de 5 ans et plus est an moms
de l'ordre do 37,5 %.
Los deux methodes precedentes nous avaient conduits A un sous-enregistrement
de 40 % pour les deebs de tous Ages. On pout done penser quo h/1,6 est petit. C'est
ld tin renscignement supplementaire sur la validit6 des recensements de in Colombie
10
GRAPHIQUE 4. 116so1ution graphiquo du systhno d'6quations N? Colombio.
on 1038 et 1951. Nous avons au raison do les considdrer comme assoz exacts, Pour
continuer le calcul, on a tenu h et k pour negligeables ot admis qu'on obtonait les
deals reels do 5 ans et plus on majorant do 60 % los deebs enregistres.
Passage du taux de 5 arts et plus au taux brut de mortalite
Nous sommes maintenant en mesure de calculer to taux vrai de mortalite de 5 ans
et plus. Le tableau 10 donne les elements d'un tel caloul.
A l'aide de in seri? dos populations stables modbles considerees an debut de cot
expose, on pout tracer sur un diagramme ott Von port? en abscisse lo taux brut do
natalite et on ordonnee le taux brut de mortalite, les courbes A taux d'accroissement
nature! constant et les courbes A taux de mortalite de 5 ans et plus constant, A
l'intersection de in courbe corresponda,nt an taux d'accroissement nature! donne par
in comparaison des deux recensements successifs et de In courbe du taux de mortalite
de 5 ans et plus corrige du sous-enregistrement des aces de in fawn indiquee dans
le tableau 10, on lit le taux brut de mortalit6 et le taux brut de natalite cherches,
Dans in zone oit le diagramme s'applique en pratique, celui-ei se present? sous in
forme de deux reseaux de droites parallbles. On pout done le transformer en un
graphique du type nomogramme A, points aligns. C'est un tel nomogramme qui est
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TABLEAU 10, Colombia. CA1014/ du faux rdei d mortalit4 de ti ON et plue pour (a
'hie& 1930-1950.
Population do 5 ans ot plus au roconoomont do 1938 . 7.900.300
Population do 5 ans et plum au r000nsomont do 19111 . 9.008.079
Population moyonno 8.485,970
Mayon? dos NON annuals do a ans et plus onrogistrom do 1030
1050 78.733
Taux annuol moyon do mortalltd do 5 ans ot plus, onrogistro do
1930 it 1050 0,27
Taux annuol moyon do mortalitti do 5 ans ot plus, oorrig6 du
souiponrogistromont don (Moos 14,8 %o
roproduit sur lo graphique 5. Sur 'Whelk) de droito, on repbre le taux d'aocroissomont
natural. Sur l'6ohelle de gaucho on mem le taux do mortalit6 de 5 ans at plus. La
droite qui joint los deux points ainsi obtenus coupe l'iSchelle du milieu on in point
qui donne le taux brut da mortalit6 ehorch6. Le taux brut do natalit6 s'obtiont 6v1-
demment en ajoutant au taux brut do mortalit6 le taux d'acoroissement nature].
Si l'on prdbre, on pout utiliser aussi la formula num6riquo suivante 6quivalente au
nomogramme 5.
m .1,55 A? 14,6 + 0,3774 r
0,0220
Dans eette formula A est lo taux de mortalit6 de 5 ans et plus, r est la taux d'ac-
croissement natural, in est le taux brut de natalite. Tous cos taux tant exprim6s
pour 1000 habitants.
. Dans le cas de la Colombia A gale 14,7 pour 1000 et r gale 22,3 pour 1000. Le
nomogramme donne in r12120,7 pour 1000 et b or. 49,0 pour 1000.
En r6surn6 nous diapasons maintenant des trois estimations suivantes pour les
taux bruts de natalit6 et de mortalit6 do la Colombia pour la p6riode 1938-1951.
Mho& des populations stables modoles
1116thode de l'invarlance do la structure
par Age
Mothode de la comparison des reamse
rnents successils par group? de gdn6ra?
Mons
Taux moyens enregistr6s de 1930 A.
1950
Taux brut de
natalit6
(pour 1000)
47,3
45,6
49,0
33,1
Taux brut de
mortalito
(pour 1000)
25,0
23,3
26,7
15,1
On no petit gubre esp6rer un meilleur accord entre ces trois estimations.
Tann de TM brut
mortallti de di mortallt6
5 ans it plus
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
altAritIQUII 5.
%a
'roux
mint natural
40
30
20
10
21
Un autro exemple, la population du Chili
Le cas du Chili v a nous donnor ur apergu do In variete des problbmes poses par
l'application des methodes precedenies. On trouvera dans le tableau suivant les
donnees brutes permettant d'appliquer in methodo des populations stables modeles.
Date dos
reeensements
Population
rooms&
Rapport des personnes
de 5 A 14 ans aux
porsonnes de 5 ans et plus
28-X1-40
5.023.539
0,2827
24-1V.52
5.932.005
0,2785
Valour moyenne
5.478.267
0,2806
Taux d'iteeroissemont entre les deux
reeensements r 14,8 pour 1000
Les mouvements migratoires ayant en un effet negligeable sur in population du
Chili an cours de in period() consideree, on pout prendre comma estimation du taux
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d'aooroismomont naturol la valour du taux d'aooroissomont ontro los doux room-
monts, Lo nomogram= 2 donne alors pour 1940-1952 un taux brut moyon do natalitd
b 43,0%o ot un taux brut moyon do mortalltd m 28,3%0, Los statistiquos du
mouvomont naturol do la population au Chili fournissont los chitin's suivants do
1940 i 19$2.
Nombros ab sol us
illoyonno nnnuollo dos nes vivants onrogistres dons los
doux fins qui suivent la naissanoo do 1040 4 1951 180.141
iloyonno annuollo des deoes onrogistres do 1940 4 1951 08.919
Taux brut moyon
(pour 1000)
18,1
Lo Unix do natalit6 do 32,9 est cortainomont infdriour 4 la rdalitd puisqu'il ost
?Mould sur los ns vivants onrogistrds clans los deux ans qui suivant lour naissanoe.
II est dono normal quo Postimation prdo6donto fasso apparattro un sous-onrogistromont
dos naissanoes, Lo sous-onrogistromont dos (Webs est plus surpronant, los autoritds
ohilionnos oonsiddrant on offet quo les statistiquos dos dikes sont completes. Exa-
minons co quo donnont los autros mdthodos, Nous laissorons provisoiremont do
odtd la mdthodo bast% sur l'invarianoo do la structure par Ago ot nous passerons tout
do suito h la comparaison clos r000nsements do 1940 et do 1932 par groupos do gdndra-
tions.
Le tableau II donno los 616ments do oat? oomparaison.
TABLEAU 11. Chili. CoMparaieon par groupe d'dge8 de la population recenade en 1952
avec la population cakuld'e en aoustrayant de la population wens& en 1940 lea d4ce8
enregistris entre 1e8 deux receneementa (en millier8).
Ago an
rocensomont
28.XI-1940
Effootif an
roconsement
do 1940 dos
groupos do
generations
ayant tnt ro-
consomont do
1940
indique dans
la promiero
()Monne
Deo& on.
rogistres
ontro los
doux re.
consomonts
dans los
groupos do
generations
Population
oalculde
hi dato tin
douxiemo
roconsomont
No ft......???????=10.1?10 Pm?????????????
Population
moonset)
on 1952
24.1174952
Differonoo
on % do la
Difference population
r000nseo
on 1940
Differenco
on % dos
does onro?
gistres
ontro los
deux townsemonts
5-14 tins
15-29 ans
30-44 tins
45-30 ansa
60-74 an
75 ans et + a
5 fins et+
1.244
1.397
942
548
233
38
? war en moor ma 1. 6,4 mididrsokiraig. em. II ? no ? ? ?
53
1.101
1.130
01
4,9
115,1
115
1.282
1.178
104
7,4
90,4
118
824
755
09
7,3
118,5
136
412
887
25
4,6
18,4
134
90
89
13
5,6
9,7
74
3
630
3.772
3,539
233
5,3
37,0
a Los (+Wm/ drim toconsonionts ont 6t6 ajustes au.dossits do 50 ans.
Lo oaloul conduit b, uno population negativo qui n'a auoun Bens.
23
La dornior group? do gdndrations figurant an tabloau 11 conduit i uno population
ndgativo, L'oxagdration do l'Ago an (Mobs pout sans douto expliquor co rdsultat,
dtant donn6 lo grand Ago do co groupo do gdndrations. Dans oe qui va suivro, on no
tiondra pas oornpto do co dornior group''. Avoo los notations utilisdas prdoddommont
pour la Colombie, lo system? d'dquations lindairos s'dorit
1.244 Y + 53 X mg 01
1.397 Y + 115 X 101
942 Y + 118 X Ea 09
548 Y+136 XgR 25
233 Y + 134 X al 13
Lo graphiquo 6 montro oommont so prdsonto in rdsolution do co system?. Lo point
N d'absoisse 0,07 ot d'ordonndo ?0,06 fourffit uric solution approolt6 oonvonable,
On a done los relations approohdos suivantes
h? k
171-4111),07,
7-7-11* 1/? 0,06
1? q
qui pouvent s'dorire h#0,06 + 0,94 q, 1
140,07 + 0,93 k, j
on onfin avec uno nouvollo approximation h#0,06 + q,
La premiere relation montro quo h est au moms 6gal a 0,06. Ii y a dono cu on 1952,
dans le recensoment des personnes de 5 ans ot plus, un sous-enregistreinent d'au
moms 6 %. Cotte tame relation montro dgalement quo q n'est pas treks grand. &non,
I et k seraient grands aussi et do grandes orrours sur le reconsement sont improbables.
Mais que faut-il entendre exaotoment par q petit ot par des statistiques d'enrogistre-
ment completes? Ii semble quo q no puisse guere &passer un pourcentage do quelques
units. Si q dgalo 4 % par exempla, h sera 6ga1 di 10 %, co qui reprdsente ddja une
erreur itnportante sur le reconsement de 1952. Pour continuer le oaloul, on a dono
suppos6 quo in oompldtude d'enregistrement des aces dtait comprise entre 96 %
et 100 % et on a mend les oalculs pour les deux limites, On va volt' quo les r6sultats
d6pendent assez pou de la valour adopt6e pour q.
Reprenons aveo le reconsement de 1052 ainsi eorrige les trois m6thodes d'estimation
de in natalit6 et de la mortalit6.
Le tableau 11 donne les d6tails d'application de in mdthode des populations
stables modeles (nomogramme 2).
On volt quo les rdsultats sont i pen pres les milmes pour les deux oompl6tudes
d'enregistroment des &ices adoptdes pour le calcul, Pour les deux autres methodes
on s'est content6 d'un soul calcul.
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24
120
100
80
60
40
20
0/0
GRAPHIQUE O. Resolution graphiquo du system? d'equations N? II Chili.
#10141111110
Le tableau 14 se r6fbre 4 la m6thode basoe stir l'invariance de la composition par
age. Le tableau 13 montre quo depuis 1007 la structure par Age de la population du
Chili a subi pen de ohangement, cc qui justifio romploi de la m6thode. La table do
survie qu'on obtient pr6sente quelques irr6gularit6s qu'il serait facile de corrigcr par
uno method? d'ajustement quelconque. Cate table de survie donne une esp6rance
de vie A Page de 7,5 ans 6gale A 52,8 ans. Dans les tables do mortalit6 modeles,
l'esp6raiice de vie A la naissanee correspondante est de 47,5 ans. Ce qui correspond
A nit taux brut de mortalite de m 17,7 %O. Lo taux brut de natalit6 s'obtient en
ajoutant A ee taux le taux d'acoroissement nature] r' 20%0, on a done 6 37,7%0.
Dans to tableau 15 enfin, on utilise la m6thode de comparaison des recensoments
par group? de g6ndration (nomogramme 5) en supposant quo l'enregistrement des
aces est oomplet (q 0).
20
TADLARAIT 12. Chili, Netimation du Num brut annuel moyen de la natalitet et de la
morlalitd pour la periode 1940-,1962 an utilieant la tnithode dee population,' stable,'
modeles.
Rapport dos per.
Date dos sonnos do 5 A. 14 Populations
r000nsomonts ans aux porsonnos r000nseos
do 5 arm ot plus
Populations oorrigeos on
admottant pour la oompletudo
do l'onrogistromont dos dean
los pouroontagos suivants
100% 90%
28.XI?1940 0,2827 5.023.530
5,023.539
5.224,481
241 V.1952 0,2785 6,932.905
0,288.975
0.520.295
Valour moyonno 0,2806
11,056,267
5,871388
Taux d'aooroissomont ontro los doux r000nsomonts oaloule
sur Ws populations oorrigeos (pour millo)
10,9
19,0
Nombro annuol moyon do nes vivants onrigistres dans los
cloux ans suivant lour naissanoo, do 1940 6 1951 .
180,141
Taux brut ammo' moyon do natalite onrogistr6 (pour inillo)
31,9
30,6
Nombre annuol moyon do Moos onrogistres do 1940 d 1051
98.959
Taux brut annuol moyon do mortalit6 onrogistr6 (pour mine)
17,5
10,8
Taux brut annuol moyon do natalit6 Pu sur lo nomogrammo 2
(pour millo)
38,0
38,3
Taux brut annuol moyon do mortalite oorrospondanta (pour
millo)
18,1
18,7
a Differonoo ontro lo taux do natalit6 Pu sur lo nomogrammo 2 ot lo taux d'aooroissomont
oaloul6 sur los populations oorrigeos.
TABLEAU 13. Compoeition par grand,' groupee d'dgee de la population du Chili aux
einq derniere reeeneetnente.
Groupo
(on ann6e)
?????????111MINIMINNINIMMIRly,
1907
Ann& dos r000nsoments
1920 1930 1940
1052
0-9
25,9
26,2
20,2
26,0
20,4
10-19
22,2
22,4
21,9
22,3
20,7
20-29
17,9
17,9
18,2
17,0
17,2
30-39
12,4
13,0
13,0
13,4
12,8
40-49
9,1
9,1
9,2
0,0
9,9
50-59
6,1
5,6
5,8
6,2
6,6
00-60
3,8
3,5
3,5
3,7
4,0
70-70
1,7
1,5
1,5
1,6
1,7
80 et plus
0,9
0,8
0,7
0,6
0,7
Tous Ages
100,0
100,0
100,0
100,0
100,0
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20
TABLEAU 14, O4W Ponction de aurae au.dcaaus de 7,4 ans pour la period.) 1940-
1942 calculde our la atructure par eke moyenno dee recensemente de 119610 et 1042 en
utilisant un taw d'accroissement naturel de 20 Xio,
crow Ago moyon
d'Ages (annex))
(antulo) (a)
Composition par Ago aux
r000nsomonts
28?X1?1940 2441%1952
Valour
moyenno
0(a)
(1+ 0,02)ao(a) (1 + 0,024)
Fono ?
tion do
survio
11?11?11111?11011MM.
0-4
12,4
13,2
5-9
7,5
12,0
13,2
12,9
1,10
1.407
1,000
10-14
12,5
12,1
11,0
11,5
1,28
1,473
984
15-19
17,4
10,2
0,7
10,0
1,41
1,414
045
20-24
22,5
0,1
0,5
9,3
'1,60
1,451
909
25-29
27,5
8,4
7,0
8,0
1,72
1.379
921
30-34
32,5
7,0
0,4
0,7
1,00
1,275
852
34-39
37,5
0,4
0,4
0,3
2,10
1.323
883
40-44
42,4
5,3
5,4
15,3
2,32
1.230
822
45-49
47,5
4,3
4,4
4,4
2,50
1.127
753
50-54
52,2
3,5
3,9
3,7
2,83
1,040
099
55-59
57,5
2,8
2,8
2,7
3,12
843
503
00-04
02,5
2,4
2,5
2,5
3,45
892
570
05-00
67,5
1,3
1,0
1,4
3,81
533
350
70-74
72,5
1,0
1,2
1,1
4,20
402
309
711-79
77,11
0,5
0,0
0,5
4,04
232
155
80-84
82,5
0,4
0,4
0,4
13,12
2013
137
86 ot plus
87,5
0,3
0,3
0,3
5,00
170
114
Tous ?s
100,0
100,0
TABLEAU' 15. Chili, Estimation du taux brut annuel mu yen de mortalitd et de natalitd
pour la pdriode 1940-1952 en utilisant la mdthode de comparaison par groupe de gdnd?
ration des recensements de 1940 et 1952.
Date dos roconsoments
Population do
5 ans et plus
rocons6o
Population de
5 arks ot plus
corrig6o
28-X1?40 4.401.530
24?1V?52 5,153.850
Valour moyenne
Nombro annual moyen do &Ws do 5 ans
4.401.530
5,403.087
4,932.311
et plus onrogistr6s do 1940 1951 . .
56.411
Taux annual moyen do mortalite de 5 ans
et plus onrogistr6 de 1940 a 1051 .
11,4 %?
Taux annual moyon d'acoroissoment do In
population total? do 1940 t 1051 caloul6
sur les populations corrig6es
r' - 20 %
Taux brut moyon do mortalit6 lu sur le
nomogramme 2
17,0
%
Taux brut moyon do natalit6 correspondant
b 37,0
%0
27
Finalomont on a los trots tivaluations sulvantos
Taux brut do
natalite
(pour 100)
Taux brut do
mortalit6
(pour 1000)
Mothodo do populations stablos modolos
38,0
18,1
11f6thodo do l'invarianoo do In struoturo
par ago
37,7
17,7
146thodo do In oomparalson dos rooms?.
monts par group? do g6n6ration
37,0
17,0
Taux onrogistr6s oommo ii ost indiqu6
au tableau 12 (dans to oaso 0)
31,0
17,5
L'acoord ontro los resultats donnes par los trols methodos est excellent. La com-
paraison dos estimations avoo los taux onrogistres montro quo l'onrogistromont dos
&Sobs est pratiquornont oomplot ot qu'il oxisto un sous-onrogistromont dos naissanoos
do l'ordro do 20%1,
Conclusions
Lo deux oxomplos quo nous vonons d'etudior un pou on detail montront bion la
oomplexit6 dos problbmes qui so posont quand on vout tiror dos r000nsements do
population dos renseignemonts sur la natalit6 ot la mortalite. Los methodes dont
nous venons d'expofer lo prinoipo no doivont jamais etre appliqueos mkaniquement.
Chaque oas dolt etro soigneusement 6tudi6 on fonotion do toutes los donnees possibles.
L'effet dos mouvements migratoiros quo nous avons Pu laissor do cote dans los deux
oas envisages pane qu'il etait faible, pout devenir trbs important dans d'autres
populations.
Enfin nous nous sommos places dans le oas Pon disposait pour un m6me pays
do deux reconsements pas trop 6loignes l'un do l'autre paroo quo &est un oas qu'on
rencontre souvent dans la pratique. Mais on pout developper, h partir des populations
stables, Wen d'autres methodes adapt6es aux donnees dont on dispose. Un soul
reoensement, un 6ohantillon de deobs, un echantillon de forums classees suivant le
nombre des enfants nes et le nombre dos enfants survivants, etc. sont dos donnees
suffisantes pour obtenir des resultats interessants.
Une application systematique do oes diversos methodes est on ()ours au Service
de la Population des Nations Unies. On pout d6jA, dire quo le principe d'assimilation
dos populations des pays sous-developpes 11 des populations stables fournit un
puissant outil d'analyse de la situation demographique de cos pays.
I Pour intorpr6ter co r6sultat, II oonviont do so souvenir qua le taux de natalit6 enrogistr6 no
porte quo sur les n6s vivants enrogistr6s moms de deux ans apr6s lour naissaneo.
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28
SUMMARY
Thie article illustrates with two concrete
oxamplos?Colombia and Chilo?momo of
the methods devised by the Population
Branch of the Bureau of Social Affairs
of the United Nations for measuring the
level of fertility and mortality for countries
where vital statistics are deficient.
In the first part of the papor, the poa-
Hibility of associating the population of
most under-developed countries with stable
populations is demonstrated. In this
contoxt, a sot of model stable populations
calculated by associating six levels of
mortality (expectation of life at birth,
ranging from 20 to 70 years) with six levels
of fortility (gross reproduction rate ranging
from 1 to 4) is prosontod. Throo ostimating
methods arc then discussed.
In the first method, it is assumod that
the annual rate of increase and the ago
composition of the population are avail-
able from censuses. By idontifying the
stable population whose characteristics
most nearly coincide with those of the
observed population, estimates of the
levels of fertility and mortality of the actual
population can be derived.
The second method rests on the as-
sumption that, as in a stable population,
the age composition at a given moment
results from the ratio of natural Increase
observed at that moment as applied to
the stationary population corresponding
to the mortality of the same moment.
In other words, in multiplying the ago
composition by the function oxp (ria)
whore rt is the rate of natural increase
and a the ago, one obtains the stationary
population.
The third method consists of comparing
cohorts at two censuses and by applying
registered deaths. By this moans, an
evaluation of the under-registration of
deaths of individuals 5 years and over is
obtained. Deaths under ago 6 are then
estimated in relation to deaths at ages
6 and over, and a total crude death rate
is obtained.
Tho principle of associating the popula-
tion of an under-developed country with
a stable population has a wide-range of
applications. The methods studied here
represent only some examples of what
can be done. More extensive work is now
in process in the Population Branch of the
United Nations.
'Uppsala 1057, Almqvint & Wilsons 13oktryckeri AD
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INTERNATIONELLA STATISUSK A INSTITUTET
L'INSTITUT INTERNATIONAL DE STATISTIQUE
THE INTERNATIONAL STATISTICAL INSTITUTE
3 0 SESSION'
STOCK HOLM
11/8-15/0 1957
BERECHNUNG DER HEIRATMAHRSCHEINLICHKEITEN DER LEDIGEN1
DER VERWITINETENt DER GESCHIEDENEN UND BERECHNUNG DER
EHESCHEIDUNGSWAHRSCHEINLICHKEITEN AUS DEN ERGEBNISSEN
DER VOLKSZAHLUNGEN
von
Ivo Lah
Belgrad
Mit Lx,Sx9MxtWx9Dx bezolchnen wir die Zahlen ia.or, lediger, ver-
heirateter, verwitweter, geschiedenor Peruonen, die am Zdhltage (x ? 0.5
oder mehr, jedoch wlniger is (x + 0.5) Jahre 1t mind. Es it
Sx + Mx + Wx + Dx = Lx
Die Verha1tniszah1en der lodigen, vorheirateten, verwitweten,
schiedenen Porsonen bezeichnen wir mit einem Apostroph; nhmlich
Sx
lYqc M X? L X
W;
C = WX LX
= ? : Lx
Es 1st
/2/
Mit PIO PXYPX,Px, Px bezeichnen wir die einjdhrigen Erlebenswahr-
scheinlichkeiten aller, lediger, verheirateter, verwitweter, geschiedener
Personen.
s w d
Schliesslich bezeichnen wir mit 1..txt p,x, plc die einjahrigen Heirats-
wahrscheinlichkeiten der ledigen, verwitweten, geschiedenen Personen und
mit 61c die einjahrigen EbescheidungswahrscheinliChkeiten der Verheirateten.
s w
Die Aufgabe, die wir uns stellen, 1st, die Werte von p.x, ktx, bx
aus W;c, 1:1;c zu berechnen.
+ 4.
Fur eine stationare Bevnkerung, d.i. fur eine Bevnkerung konstan-
ter Natalitat, Nuptialitat, Divortialitdt, Mortalitdt und ohne Migration
gelten folgende Gleichungen:
Lx+1= Lx1ox
Sx+1 Sp (1 ? )
mx.o. Pri)'c Pny' ( ? s x w x mwd4 D x P ()lc ) ( x
* ( ? )
likr +1 " Wxw.
Px (
+ Mxpilx141(1
w w d d.
WxPxP,r. DxPxPiX k 1
) 1
2X ?
,ox) nyl
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S
SXPXi1X+.'.
/4/
/5/
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Pxci (1 ? 141 et
+
?41c9.)11-lex''
l& 144 4' /6/
Vorotehende Formein sind leloht verst4n1lioh. z. B. it dio Zahl
der Lodigen sy+1/5/ gleioh der Zahl Sxmatipliziert mit dor Firlebonswahx-
soheinlichkeil aorx-ijiihrJuon Lei gen und mit dor Wahrschuinliohkeit,
class die Ledigen im Laufe dew Jahr ez ni.7:14:11t he,raterl (1 - DQsgloiohon
it die Uhl der Verheirateten 114,1/6/ gleich dor Zoll 11x, multipliziert
mit der Erlebenewahrsoheinlichkoft dctr Gatten Tilillm'Lt der Erlebenswahr-
soheinliohkeit der im Duruhschnitt y Jahre alt4p Gattinen und mit
der Wahrucheinlichkeit, doss die Oatten im Tg?lufe dos Jahreo nicht schei-
den (1 bx) vergrossert um den Zuwacb d ii Laufe des Jahres Veuver-
heiratoten. Dicier Zuwacho it gleioh don Zahion aer Ledigen, der Witwer,
der Geochiedenen, jedu Zahl mulUpicioTt mit der antspreohmnden Erlebens-
und Heiratswahrucheinlichkett, und die $umme der P.:odukte multipliziert
mit der Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass die Catten nach der Heirat jodoch 70r
Ablauf des Jahres nict 8chei6en 1 - Wurat rajJ der Wahrsoheinliohlwit,
dass die Gattinen vor Ablauf dos jithvos nicht sterbon wobei
wir annohmen, dass die Ehen im Durch6chnitt in der N:Ltte deo Talixes 3e-
sch1osoen werdon. Uuw. Usw.
Eine derartige stationUre Bov6Jkona1c exisiort in Wirklichkeit so
gut wie nicht. Infolgedesoen millasen die Yomeln /4/ bis /8/ geochrieben
werden, wie folgt:
Ix +1' kxLxPx
Sx +1' k)sc Sx ( 1 ?
?
1VIX + 1 = k 1)1CIE MX ( 1 ma ?X )
t r
9 1? fr" 1
(
1= k (
, vt m(
ci 4
vrx ri)vic p.xw ox 14:(1 )
, ,
L.)
Dx + = k)clr.DxP)cic. ( ? my. prxii ,
Po 1,1% 'n
, jsc
)
Die G-Ossen 1' - .1P? 1 wka inenncil wir Mrfrktoren des stationdren
' 'If P 1 A
Zustandes der gesamten, Iec1igen, vosheiratoten, verwitweten, geschiedenen
BevOlkerung. Dieselben hangen von den Ando.7unuon aer NatalitUt, Nuptiali-
tbit, Divortia1it6t, Mortalitatl Ils aucb von 'ler Migration ab,
FUr die ;veitere Rechnung nehmen vir mei Hypothe6.en an und zwart
I/ Wir nehmen an dass die Stevblichkeit .vo,- Zivilstande unabidneig
ist d.i.
Px Ps pra
x
/9/
Dies entspricht selbstver3tttndlih nicht ganz und gar der tirklichkrAt,
jedoch diesbezUglicher Fehler st crfahrungsgemdss so klein, dass er ohne
weiteres vernachlLissigt verden kann,
2/ Wiz nehmen welter an, class auch die Stol.faktoren des statiordren
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+.4414
r?
a*
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777177.7r.r?
INI
eff
Zustandes vom Ziviistande unabhdngig sind, d.i,
kx m m km m
m kd
?
Auoh dies entoprioht nioht ganz und Kar der Wirkliolikeit, jedoeh der
Fehler kann im ?meson und Ganzen nicht gross nein. je grOsser die Natali-
tat und die Immigration it und je kleiner die Oterbliohkeit it, desto
eTdrisor.ist nioht nur Lx QondQrn auch S,NI W und umgekehrt.
v x?
Mittels Division von /5*/, /6*/, /7*/, /8*/,duroh /4*/ und unter
Beachtung von /2/, /9/1 /IV/ bikommen wir folgende 'vier ftir die Berech-
nung der Unbekannten plo q, 6.x notwonaleo und .ausreichende Gleichungen:
2;44 S;( ( )
TqC+i= ( 'mu + iir51
18 ( 1
x+1 x
I2xv cly ( 1 ? Cil:t + $11 + +
i4xd ) Pdwx
/13/
D4) /14/
Sofern unsere Hypotheoen Uber die Unabhdngigkeit der Sterblichkeit
und der Storfaktoren vom Zivilstande der Wirklichkeit entsprechen, sind
die Formeln /11/ bis /14/ exakt, sonst sind sie aber Ndherungsformeln,
deren Prdzision davon abhdngt, wie weit unsere Hypothesen von der Wirk-
lichkeit abweichen.
Die Bereshnung von 1taus /11/ ist sehr einfach, wogegen die Bestim-
mung von 14,.4, bx aus /12 /13/, /14/ mit rechnerischen Schwierigkeiten
verbunden 1st, da die Elimination je zweier Unbokannten zu einer Gleichung
vierten Grades der dritten Unbekaanten fUhrt. Wir haben also fUr jedes
Alter X eine biguadratische Gleichung aufzulosen um 4! bx zu bestimmen,
w d
Gecen vorstehende 14ethode der Berechnung von px,p, aus /12/,
/13/, /14/ kann man einwenden, dass die Ehescheidungswahrscheinlichkeiten
ox und die Sterbenswahr3chein1ichkeiten der Prauen gy fUr die im letzten
Jahre die Ehe Schliessenden nicht dieselben sind, vile fUr die iibrigen Ver-
heirateten, welche die Eh o schon vor einem oder mehreren Jahren geschlos-
sen haben. Das gleiche gilt auch fUr 4 /13/ und 14 /14/ fur diejenigen
Verheirateten, die im letzten Jahre Witwer oder Geschiedene geworden sind.
AU8 diesem Grunde sind nach latlichkeit im Gleichungssystem /12/, /13/, '
/14/ passende Korrekturen anzubringen.
+
Vor Auflosung des G1eichungs6ystems /II/ bis /14/ mUssen die empi-
rischen Werte ,T4c Igx 1],k fein ausgeglichen werden, well schon recht
kleine Pehler dor empirischen Werte sehr grosse Diskontinuitaten in der
Folgc der Zahlen ppcs, 147 kLIdc,,verurschon. Die graphischen und mechanischen
Ausgleichsmethoden haben nicht die notwendige Peinheit. Es kommt daher nur
analytische Ausgleichanc in Betracht. In die Einzelheiten der analytischen
Ausgleichung von 13,.,14,71r;c4EK,welche wir im nachstehenden zahlenmdssigen
Beispiel angewendet haben, k6nnen wir an dieser Stelle 'eider nicht ein-
gehen. Wir bemerken nur, dass es am besten 1st, analog der Gompertz-
Makeham-schen Idee vorzugehen, nbAlich die Nuptialitat und Divortialitat
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3
-4-
mittels "force of nuptiality" bzw. "force of divorciality" zu erklUren,
welehe mit der intensitat I(X)gomessen wird, Unter -der Intenaitat einer
Funktion COO verateht man -die Anderung der Funktion in der unendlich
kleinen Zeit dX7bereohnet au f Funktions- und Zeiteinheit.
af(X)
I( x) /15/
SIX)dx
Die Funktion f(x) it so zu h1cn, class sio im niedrigston heirats-
Migen Alter und im Alter, mit wolchem die analytische Ausgleichung
geschlossen wird, gegebenen Anfangsbildingungen nicht nur in Bezug auf den
Wert sondern auch in Bezug auf die erste Ableitung genugt. Ausserdem muss
die Funktion f(x) eine entsprechende Zahl von Parametern enthalten, die
nach der Liethode der 10,einsten Quadrate se zu bestimmen sind, class sich
die ausgeglichenen Werte mbglichst an dJo empirischen Werte anschmiegen.
Zu beaohten Jut, daso die ausgeglichenen Wert? we ten au f fun f oder
sechs Dezimulen berechnet worden !W.:Innen.
+ +
Wir haben unow:e theoretiachen AusfUhrungen an de: i Alters- und Zivil-
standgruppiorung der jugoolawischen 10,nn1ichen Bevolksrung am Zdhltage
1.5.111.1948 zahlenmelosig a1.erprUft.1/ Die empirischen Verhdltniszahlen
v9
is;, W' D; sind nuf vier Dezimalon abgerundet in der Tabolle 1 gegeben.
X9
Die elngeklammerten Geburtsjahreivon /1915/ bis /1895/ bzw4 die eKngeklam,-
merten Alterojahre von /33/ bis /53/ bedeuten Quinquennien, da die empi-
rischen Zahlen fUr einzeine Altevsja%re nur von x 15 bis x= 30 vorlie-
gen. Die empirischen Zahlen fUr 10% /53/ haben wir bei der Ausgleichung,
nichtd berUcksichtivl, well dioselbon unzuverldssig Lind... Die Grossen
w
60 ?x, x ttr x 53 konnen Ubrigcns am been mittels geeigneter Extra-
polation bentimmt werden.
+IP
I/ Von der tbarprafung uer Methode an der jugoslawischen weiblichen
Bevolkerung mussten absehen, da die Zahlen der Witwen 1/St durch die
beiden 1,:e1tkriege stark perturbie:r.t sind, so dass wir die daraus sich
ergebenden Schwierigkeiten der analytischen Ausgleichung von W' bisher
nicht bewaltgen konnton.
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3
Empirinehe Vorhaltniozahlen Ougoolawielohen
mUnnliohen BeOlkerung nach Zivilatand un. Alter
am Zahltage 15.111.1948.
......
............
Geburte-
jahr
,
Alt or1
Ledige
Verheira-
tete
1
Verwit. I
wete
Geschiedene
x
100 S.
100 Mx
1.00 W'
x
100 lqc
1 2
3
4
.5
6
1933
15
100.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1932
16
99.37
0.62
0.01
.0.00
1931
17
97.96
2.00
0.03
0.01
1930
18
94.67
5.27
0.04
0.02
1929
19
00.45
11.42
0.07
0.06
1928
20
79.83
19.93
0.14
0.10
1927
21
77.66
21.86
0.15
0.13
1926
22
70.61
29.04
0.19
0.16
1925
07
...)
63.45
36.09
0.24
0.22
1924
24
55.76
43.64
0.31
0.29
1923
25
49.02
50.22
0.40
0.36
1922
26
42.08
57.02
0.50
'0.40
1921
27
36.27
62.73
0.50
1 0.44
1920
28
30.43
68.30
0.75
, 0.52
1919
29
23.04
75.85
0.61
0.50
1918
30
21.03
77.65
0.73
0.59
/1915/
/33/
14.42
?83.91
1.01
0.66
/1910/
138/
9.10
88.48
1.71
0.71'
/1t)09/
/43/
6.38
90.02
2.89
0.71
'
/1900/
? /48/
4.99
39.71
4.63
0.67
/1895/
/53/
4.60
,88.10
6.59
0.71
Tabelle 1.
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2
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-6-
IIu
Die analytineh auegogliohenen VerhUltniazahlen aid mit Slo
D bezeiahnet und in der Tabelle 2 gegeben. Dieaelben aind au a den Zahlen
der Taballe 1 null folgenden Formeln auf Peoha Dezimalen genau bereohnet:
X
0 01, 4 + 1926 3 11
38
53 ? x in
/ ON
lFOOMMIIMPINIUMMININO
38 38
1 464202- - 0 31 63on
00092(x - 15
Wx m 0,.0659( 2.Q37 (").
38
ri
2.743611
= 0 .007e
1 fUr x
38-x ln x ? 15 (
=+
2,3 23 1
= 0.007 fiir x = 38, 30,...53
it
M x = 1
Dx"
moon
lao.1
15
7
2
16,
/16/
/17/
Da Jugoslawien keine ftir das ganze Staatsgebiet giltige Sterbetafel
hat, haben wir die Sterbenswahrucheinlichkeiten der Frauen qy durch eine
lineare Kembination der bedIden slowenische,n Volkssterbetafeln aus der Be-
obachtungsperiode 1931/332/ bzw. 1948/523/ ermittelt. Aus verschiedenen
Erfahrungen haben wir festgestellt, dass folgende 1ineare Kombination
31/7)3
q = .8q 02q48/52
/20
am besten der Frauensterblichkeit in ganz Jugoslawien ontspricht. Die nach
/20/ berechneten Sterbenswahrocheinlichkeiten der Frauen qv sind in der
Spalte /6/ der Tabelle 2 gegeben.
2/ Lah Ivo: "Bases techniques pour les assurances sur la vie", DrZavni
zavod za socijalno osiguranje, Zagreb, 1947.
3/ Dr. jllejed Marijan; "Tablice umrljivosti prOivaistva LR Slovenije",
Zavod za statistiko LE Slovenije, Ljubljana, 1955.
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3
I
?
IN
Analytinoh auegegliohene Verhaltniazahlen der jugonlawinohen
mUnnliohen Rev6lkerung naoh Ziviletand und Alter am Zahltage
15.11141940. un. aueFeglio.hene Sterbonowahrooheinliohkeiten
jugoolRwinoher Prauen,
1111.1111111111111111111111M11.1111?????
Ledige
Verheira- Verwit-
tete wete
Sterbene-
Geeohie- wahreohein-
dene , liohkeiten
der Frauen
x, y
2.000 Sx"
1000 mx"
1000 W1)(1
3.000 Dx"
1000 qy
1
Y5
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
2
1000.000
993.414
977.490
944.307
894.090
830.546
758.746
683.553
608.897
537.586
471.399
411.299
357.644
310.380
269.192
233.614
203.100
177.090
155.035
136.413
120.755
107.632
96.668
87.528
79.929
73.624)
68.399
64.070
60.496
57.537
55.096
53.07s
51.418
50.048
48.927
48.017
47.287
46.722
46.300
3
0.000
6.528
22.243
55.042
104.704
167.533
238.478
312.696
386.277
456.432
521.401
580.234
632.587
678.523
718.362
752.575
781.709
806.325
826.967
644.153
858.346
869.967
879.381
886.912
892.813
897.301
900.576
902.608
904.120
904.635
904.426
903.564
902'.067
900.029
697.395
694.181
890.371
885.924
f380.800
4
0.000
0.040
0.162
0.366
0.650
1,010
1.443
1.946
2.515
3.148
3.842
4.595
5.406
6.274
7.200
8.165
9.230
10.337
11.511
12.756
14.076
15.478
16.970
18.560
20.258
22.075
24.025
26.122
28.384
30 628
33.478
36.358
39.495
42.923
46.678
50.802
55.342'
60.354
65.900
5
0.000
0,018
0,105
0.285
0.556
0.911
1.333
1.805
2.311
2.834
3.358
3.872
4.363
4?823
5.246
5.626
5.961
6.248
6.487
6.678
6.823
6.923
6.981
7.000
7.000
7.000
7.000
7.000
7.000
7.000
7.000
7.000
7.000
7.000
7.000
7.000
7.000
7.009
t).000
6
3.22
3.45
3.63
3.77
3.84
3.88
3.92
3.97
4.05
4.18
4.35
4.54
4.73
4.91
5.08
5.24
5.41
5.61
5.82
6.06
6.29
6,50
6.67
6,80
,6.9l
7.01
7.16
7.36
7.66
8.08
8.60
9.23
9.93
Tabelle 2.
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Cop Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3
V'i' halm weiter? angenommen, duo dao Alter deo Gatten durchwee dem
Alter der Gattin aleioh it, doh. wir huben angenommenX y wao e@lbot-
vorstdndlich durohaus nioht der Fall int, Es mUsste vielmehr jedes Al-
ter der Gatten x das durchsohnittliche Alter der Gattinen y berechnet
warden. Die so bereohneten empirioshen Durchschnittsalter der Gattinen
mUnsten nachher Vein analytisch ausgeglichen werden. Sohliesolloh mtiosten
die SterbenPwahrooheinlichkeiten qv NI^ nioht ganzzahlige y naoh Parabeln
interpoliert werden, Wir habon jedech von die wen Dereohnungen Abstand ge-
nommen, well die nach /20/ berechneten nur annahernd der Wirkliohkeit
enteprechen.
Um die Bereohnung von 140.4100y aus /12/, /13/, /14/ zu vereinfaohen,
haben wir angenommen, class die Sterblichkeit der Gattinen im erten Jahre
naoh der Hoohzeit - im Durchsohnitt handelt es sich nur um ein halbea Jahr
praktisoh gleich Null sei, Weiter haben wir da s Produkt Calyox in /13/,
welohes eine Ortisse der zweiten Ordnung ?der Kleinhelt darstellt, gleioh
Null gesetzt. Ausserdem haben wir in /14/ dap letzte Glied vernaohldssigt.
Dadurch voroinfaoht sich das Formelsystem /11/ bis /14/ ?wie folgt:
ox
NMI
????
nee
'I
+ /cc gy
II
Wx" viVix
41c ox 1511(4+
+
1k/cc py (s;',14 D; 14c1) ? M;ic+i
iv py s p + wx" + rit, )
Zundchst haben wir die Werte von ?x und ?x nach /21/ und /22/ be-
rechnet. Nachher haben wir Ox aus /24/ unter der Annahme berechnet, dass
die Heiratswahrscheinlichkeiten der Geschigdenen diegleichen sind wie die
der Witwer. Schliesslich haben wir noch p4 aus /23/ berechnet. Die so
ermittelten Werte 4, 4, 0x sind in der Tabelle 3 gegeben.
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fl 2
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3
6,
- 9 -
Einjahrige Heiratewahreoheinliohkeiten der ledigen, verwitweten
peohiedenen Winner unci cinjUhrige Eheeoheidungawahreoheinlioh-
keiten der verheirateten Winner, bereohnet aue den Ergebnieeen
der jugoolawieohen Volkazahlung vom 15,111.1948.
n--.?eign???????????=0,???????? VIESHONOMON~M~BMNININSIIMINNIPOIMININOMME
r.............
Heiratewahreoheinliohkeiten
der
Gesohi,edenen
Ehesoheidunge-
wahreohepollioh-
" k6iten
i Alter
--------
Ledigen
Verwltweten
x
o
100 11 x
100 4 .
,i.co, ,p,* ,
loo bx
1
2
3
5.
15
0.66
16
1.60
17
3.40
18
5,32
19
7.11
20
8.65
8.32
0.00
0.23
21
9.91
17.24
4.47
0.23
22
10.92
22.52
9.16
0.23
23
11.71
25.39
11.95
0.22
24
12,31
26,31
13.50
0,21
25
12.75
26.17
14.26
0.21m
26
13.05
25.53
14.55
0.20
27
13.22
24.67
14.59
0.19
28
13.27
23.82
14.46
0.18
29
13.22
23.19
14.36
0.17
30
13.06
22.69
14.18
0.16
31
12.81
22.19
13.86
0.15
32
12.45
21.56
13.50
0.14
33
12.01
20.79
13.03
0.13
34
11.48
19.92
12.41
0,12
35
10.87
18.96
11.79
0.11
36
10.19
18.04
11,07
0.10
37
9.46
17.20
10.47
0.09
38
8.68
16.38
9.88
0.08
39
7.89
15.65
9.13
0.08
40
7.10
14.84
8.47
0.07
41
6.33
13.94
7.79
0.06
42
5.58
12.91
7.09
0.06
43
4.89
11.77
6.39
0.05
44
4.24
10.61
5.77
0.05
45
3.66
9.44
5.04
0.04
46
3.13
8.42
4.42
0.04
47
2.66
7.50
3.92
0.03
i18
2.24
6.77
3.41
0.03
49
1.86
6.22
3.03
0.02
50
1.52
5.76
2.52
0.0
51
1.20
5.39
2.26
0.02,
52
0.90
5.02,
1.86
0.01
Tabelle 3
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3
I, ?
w d
Me. Oroseetitilyalie 1.44 land ubersichtehalber in der Figur 1 graphisch
dargestellt. Trcom 11on Unzullthglichkeiten uneerer Rechnung zeigen die
Kurvert von Wm pop. P:x den typiechen Verlauf der lieiratswahrecheinlichkgitcln
der ledigen, verwitweten, geichiedenen BevOlkerung, wie die getratowahr-
echeinlichkeiten, welch() einige Lander mit der klaseischen Methode, di.
mit den Elementargesamtheiten der Eheachlieersenden Weller berechnet haben.
EINSAHRIGX HEIRATSWAHRSCHEINLICHKEITEN DER 14E1)1MM,
VERWITWETEN UND GESCHIEDENEN MANNER, 81REC1-LN'ET AUS
DEN ERGEBN1SSEN DER JUGOSLAVISCHEN VOLKSZAHLUNG, VOM
15,111,1948.
I ? 1, /TV, Ira?-, I WOW W.
X =15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Ericm r 1
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3
ts,
Der voratehend akizzierten neuen Method der Bereohnung dor Heirate-
und Eheacheidungswahraoheinlichkeiten kommt unveren Erachtona nicht nur
eine theoretiaohe aondern auoh eine praktiaohe Bedeutung
In theoretiaoher Himicht erwahnen wir, class verechiodene demo-
graphiaohe Maaaenersoheinungen duroh "KrUfte" eedautet und analytieoh auo-
geglichen werden ktinnen, genau so und mit demaelben Erfolg wie Gompertz
/1825/ und Makeham /1060/ die Sterblichkeit mit "foroo of mortality" ge-
kUrb und analytiaoh ausgeglichen haben. Diose Art der Ausgleiohung kann
die mathematische 2tatintik ftirdern.
In praktiacher Hinsicht bemerken wir, da os auvIden Ergebnisaen je-
der soliden VolkszUhlung Fertilitdts, Nuptiaiitato und Divortialitdts-
tafein rasch und leicht konstruiert werden kdnnen, galls abgesehen davon,
ob die Statistik der nattirlichen Bewegung der Bevoikerung funktioniert
oder nicht. Die klassische Konetruktion von demographischen Tafein mittels
Elementargesamtheiten ist bekanntlich sehr kostspielig und zeitraubend.
Aus diesem Grunde haben bisher nur recht wenige Lander Fertilitate-, Nup-
tialitUts- und Divortialitdtstafeln konstruiert. Mit der neuen Methode
kann dieser Nachteil behoben werden, was da s Studium der demographinchen
Vorgdnge in alien Landern fbrdern wird.
CALNLATION OF MARRIAGE RATES FOR SINGLES, WIDOWED AND DIVORCED
PERSONS AS WELL AS OF DIVORCE RATES FROU CENSUS STATISTICS
Summary
The author puts himself the task to calculate the marriage and
divorce rates from the population structure by age and marital status.
The formulas /4/ to /8/ do hold for the stationary population and
the formulas /4*/ to /8*/ for the non-stationary one.
The formulas /11/ to /14/ from which the marriage and divorce rates
might be computed, have been deduced from /4*/ to /8*/ on the assumption
that the mortality /9/ and the perturbation factors of the stationary
status /10/ do not depend on marital status.
The method is numerically examined by the male population structure
of Yugoslavia obtained from the Population Census as of March 15, 1948
/Table 1/.
The analytically graduated structure of the male population of
Yugoslavia is presented in Table 2.
The formulas /21/ to /24/ which served for computation of marriage
and divorce rates and which are numerically exposed in table 3 and
graphically in figure 1, have been obtained by simplification of the
formulas /II/ to /14/.
Finally, the author stresses the possibility of a rapid and easy
construction of fertility, nuptiality and divorce tables from census
statistics i.e, without recurring to vital ones, what might well promote
the population studies of single countries.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-0104nRnn1 qnnnsznnrIn
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3
LE CALCUL DU TAUX DE MARIAGE FOUR LES CELIBATAIRES, VEINS
ET DIVORCES AU5S1 BIT QUE DU TAUX DE DIVORTIALITE A PARTIR
DES DONNEES,DE RECENSEMENT
Rdaumd
L'auteur a'est ohargd de prdeenter une solution du problbme du cal-
call du taux de manage et de divortialito h partir de la structure de la
population selon l'age et l'dtat matrimonial.
Quant h la population stationnaire, les formules /4/ 4 /0/ seront
h appliquer et cellem de /4*/ 4 /0*/ au cae d'une population non-station-
naire.
Les formules /II/ a, /14/ A l'aide desquelles on peut oalculer les
taux aes mariages et des divorces sont deduites de /4*/_4 /8*/ sous l'hypo-
those quo ni la mortalite /9/ ni les facteure perturbatburs de l'etat eta-
tionnaire /10/ ne se trouvent on dependance de l'etat matrimonial.
La method() etait examinee numeriquoment a l'aide de la structure de
la population masculine de la Yougoslavie obtenue h la base du Recensement
de la population du 15 mars 1948 /Tableau 1/.
La structure de la population masculine de la Yougoslavie ajustee
analytiquement se trouve au Tableau 2.
Les formulem /21/ 5, /24/, h l'aide desquelles les taux de manage
et de divortialite sont calcules et presents numeriquement au Tableau 3
et graphiquement au Figure 1, sont obtenues par la simplification des
formules /II/ h /14/.
A la fin, l'auteur souligne l'importance du fait que les tables de
fecondite, de nuptialite et de divortialite peuvent'etre calculdes tres
facilement h partir des donnees provenant des recensements de la popula-
tion et sans recourir a cellos des statistiques de l'etat civil, co qui
represente incontestablemont une faciiite assez considerable pour l'avance-
ment des recherches demographiques des pays individuels.
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INTERNATIONELLA STATISTISKA 1NSTITUTET
VINSTITUT INTERNATIONAL In STATISTIQUE
THE INTERNATIONAL STATISTICAL INSTITUTE
80 SESSION
STOCKHOLM
04-15/0 IM
DIE ORGANISATION DES STATISTISOH,Eq DIENSTE4 IN DEN
EUROPAISCHEN GROSSTADTFy
von
Dr. BERNHARD MEWES
Stadtrat in Braunschweig
Die amtliche Statistik der Lander und Gemeinden ist em n Teil
der staatlichen bzw. der regionalen Verwaltungsorganisation. Sic
dient in erster Linie Zwecken der Regierung und Verwaltung und
empfangt von diesen ihre Aufgaben. Die Organisation des statisti-
schen Dienstes in den Grosstddten hdngt daher entscheidend von dem
in den einzelnen Staaten herrschonden staatsrechtlichen Zustand,
von dem VerhAlthis der regionalen Korperschaften zur staatlichen
Gewalt und nicht zuletzt von der Stddteverfassung ab. Straffe
staatliche Zentralverwaltung muss eine andere Organisation der
Stddtestatistik zur Folge haben als Stddtefreiheit mit grosserer
Selbstverwaltung. Auch die Grosse der Gemeinde kann eine Rolle
spielen, da selbstdndige Amter in Stddten unterhalb der Gross-
stadtgrenze selten siad.
Die statistischen Amter sind entstanden aus dem Bedtrfnis der
? Stadtverwaltungen, sich tber Zahl, Struktur und Entwicklung der
,Bevolkerung zu unterrichten, Einblicke in die wirtschaftliche
Struktur der Stadt zu erhalten oder auch Unterlagen ftr steuerliche
Massnahmen zu gewinnen. Ausserdem mussten die einmal beschlossenen
und durchgefUhrten Massnahmen tberpraft werden. In ether Zeit sich
stark entwickelnder Industrie und der damit zusammenhangenden
Ballung der Menschen in den grossen Stddten war eine solche zahlen-
mdssige Gesamtschau besonders notwendig. In den einzelnen Dienst-
stellen der stddtischen Verwaltung war bereits vorher statisti-
sches Material vorhanden. Es Lid Vim Laufe der Verwaltungstdtig-
keit z.To ohne besondere Arbeit an und konnte Auskunft tber die
Leistung der Dienststellen geben. Eine systematische Sammlung
dieser statistischen Zahlen und ihre Auswertung nach einheitlichen
methodischen Grundsatzen wurde aber er3t betrieben, als die sta,
tistischen Amter in Funktion traten
Ihnen wu'rden im Laufe der Jahre zwei grosse Aufgabengebiete
tbertragen. Sie haben primdrstatistische Erhebungen ftr die Zen-
tralstellen durchzufthren. Die ortlichen Ergebnisse derartiger
Zdhlungen sind ftr die eigene Verwaltung auszuwerten. Sic haben
aber auch das sekunddrstatistische Material, ?das in den Dienst-
stellen der Verwaltung anfallt, zu sammeln und ftr Zwecke der Ver
waltungsfthrung nutzbar zu machen. Diese letzte Aufgabe ist.als
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besonders wichtig anzusehen, war ale doch der Anlass zur Errichtung
der stAdtestatistischen Amter, verschaffte ihnen im Rahmen der ge-
samten amtlichen Statistik die SelbstAndigkeit und prdgte ihnen ein
eigenes Gesicht. Die zentrale StatiLtik 10nt? zwar einen grossen
Zensus mit Hilfe eines eigenen daftir aufgebauten Verwaltungsappa-
rates durohfUhren. Es wird ihr aber trotz der modernen Hilfsmittel
nicht mdglich sein, "eine so gonaue und vollstandige Beschreibung
der grosstddtischen ZustUnde und VorgLinge mit den fUr die stddti-
sche Verwaltung erforderlichen,bis in Einzolheiten reich geglie-
der ,
ten Unterlagen zu liefernvv. We weit diose beiden Aufgaben-
gebiete fUr die Arbeit der modernen Stddtestatistik massgebend
Ond, sol]. im Laufe der folgenden Unterbuchung'dargestellt werden.
, Nachdem,zu Beginn des 19. Jahrhunderts verschiedene Staaten
statistische Amter gegrUndet hatten, folgten einige Grosstadte in
der zweiten Hdlfte des Jahrhunderts. Im Jahre 1862 errichteten
derartige Amter Berlin, Wien und Rom, 1865 Frankfurt a.M.p 1866
Hamburg p New York und Riga, 1867 Leipzig, 1868 Stockholm, 1869 Bu-
dapest, 1871 Altona und LUbeck, 1873 Breslau und Chemnitz, 1874
Dresden, 1875 MUnchen, 1879 Paris und 1883 Kopenhagen, um die
ersten Anfdnge der stddtestatistischen Amter zu nennen. Damit
beginnt keineswegs erst die statistische Bestdtigung der StAdte.
Sogenannte Vo1ksza4ungen der Stadte reichen bis ins 14. und 15.
Jahrhundert zurUck.4 Atm der Stadt Florenz liegen Volkszdhlungs-
ergebnisse fUr das Jahr 1380 var.) aus Treviso fUr 1384 und 1396,
aus Padua fUr 1411 und 1420. In Ypern fanden Volkszdhlungen in
den Jahren 1412, 1431, 1437, 1491 und 1506 stattp in Freiburg im
lj,chtland 1444, in Nordlingen 14592. in NUrnberg 1449, in Strassburg
1473/77. Damit soil keine erschOpferide Darstellung gegeben wer-
den, es sal nur an einigen Beispielen auf die Anfdnge der Stddte-
statistik un,d der stddtestatistischen Amter hingewiesen werden.
Dartber hinaus lagen in den Stddten Listen Uber die Wehrfdhigen,
die Steuerpflichtigen, die Feuerstellenp die Bodenverhdltnisse,
sowie BUrger-, Handwerker-, Zunftlisten und dgl0 vor, die noch
nicht statistische Arbeiten in unserem Sinne darstellen. Auf
weitere Einzelheiten kann hier jedoch nicht eingegangen werden,
es saute in diesem Zusammenhang nur die Stellung der Stadte-
statistik innerhalb der gesamten Statistik und in der histori-
schen Entwicklung gekennzeichnet werden. Daraus eehellen gleich-
zeitig Notwendigkeit und bis zu einem gewissen Grade Bedeutung
der stadtestatistischen Arbeit.
mm Laufe des Beatehens dieser Einrichtungen haben siCh'Auf-
gabenkreis und Organisation gewandelt, je nach den Aufgaben, die
die Stadtverwaltungen Ubernehmen mussten, 'und nach der Stellung,
die ,ihnen die staatlichen Organe Ubertragen haben. Urn den neusten
Stand. darstellen zu konnen, hat das Internationale Statistische
Institut eine Rundfrage zu Beginn des Jahres 1957 in den eurepa-
ischen Ldndern veranstaltet. Dam bestand umso mehr Veranlassungp
als im Institut ein Ausschuss fUr Grosstadtstwtistik gebildet ist
und'von ihm das Internationale Jahrbuch der Grosstddte herauSgegeben
wird. Ausserdem ist eine Sektion ?Stadtestatistik57 gebildet warden,
die erstmalig auf dem 30. Internationalen Kongress in Stockholm zu-
1 Vgl.? Wilhelm Mprgenroth, viStddtische Statistische Xmterq, mm
Handworterbuch der Staatswissenschafteny 70 Band 4. Aufl. Zena
1926, S. 945 ff.
2 .
VgL Richard Korherr, flGeschichte der Stadtestatistik", in Die
deutsche, Kommunalstatistik, Stuttgart und Berlin 1938, 3.36 ff.
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SO 04 1,01
sammentritt. Es war daher notwendig, einen herblick fiber die
Organisation de a stddtestatiattAhen Dinte u erhalten, der fiir
den Erfahrungsaustausch zwischen den Ldndern wiohtig it und ftr
do Auswertung der Zahlenangaben aus den einzelnen Land6rn yon
Bedeutung sein kann
Die FrageboGen sind von 20 europaischen Ldndern beantwortet
worden. Es fehlen die AngOen von Belgien, Humdnim, UdSSR und
der Tarkei sowie evtl. von Agypten, wenn die Ldnder berticksichtigt
werden sollen, die am Internationalen Jahrbuch der Grosstddte mit-
arbeiten. Die vorliegenden Antworten geben bereits omen tso gut
herblick, dass eine Darstellung lohnend und interessant ?ist und
den genannten Zweck erreicht.
Als Kriterium ttr das Vorhandensein eines statistischen Amtes
wurde es angesehen, wenn die statistischen Arbeiten aus dem Bereich
der einzelnen Fachdienststellen herausgelost und in einer zentralen
Dienststelle, der die Bearbeitung sdmtlicher statistischen Angele-
genheiten der Verwaltung obliegt, zusammengefasst Bind. Nur im
Falle einer Zentralisation der Statistik klann von einem statisti-
schen Amt gesprochen werden. Es kam also darauf an zu erfahren,
ob in den Grosstadten noch die frahere'Form der unausgelbsten, de-
zentralisierten Statistik GUltiEkeit hat oder ob besondere stati-
stische Dienststellen bestehen.
Aus dem Aufgabenbereich dr statistischen Amter konnten nur
wenige Angaben erfragt werden. Wesentlich 1st PAr die Organisation
des Amtes, ob statistische Erhpbungen laufender oder einmaliger Art,
wie etwa eine Volkszdhlung, im'Auftrage der statistischen Zentral-
stellen durchgefahrt werden. Dabei wird es sich meist um das Ver-
teilen und Einsammeln der Zahlpapiere handeln sowie um die Prtifung
auf Vollzdhligkeit der Papiere und Vollpttindigkeit der Antworten.
SchUesslich iat nicht unwichtig'ffir 1b Arbeit des statistischen
Amtes, ob es die Auswertung der Ortlihen Ergebnisse di,eser'zen-
tralen Erhebungen'vornimmt. Dies sett bereits eine gewisse Selb-
stdndigkeit des regionalon Amtes voraus und eine gefestigte,Stellung
innerhalb der"Ortlichen Verwaltungsorganisation.
In der gleichen Richtung lduft die Frage, ob die, grosstadti-
schen Amter statistische Erhebungen far eigene Zweake durchriihren,
ob se, ferner von der eigenen Verwaltung mit besonderen Untersuch-
ungen und Gutachten beauftragt'sind. Dies mixdo ,eine gute Organi-
sation des Amtes voraussetzen, vor allem einen Amtsleiter, der
ilber methodische Kenntnisse der Statistik und praktische Erfahrung
in der Auswertung statistischer Zahlen und in der Verwaltungstatig-
keit verfUgt. Aus diesem Grunde wurde auch dia?Frage?aUfgenommen,
ob der Leiter des Amtes eine wipsenschaftliche akademische Ausbild-
ung besitzt. Diese Frage wird nicht immer einheitlich beantWortet
sein, well die Ausbildung auf den Hochschulen in den einzelnen
Landern ver8chiedenartig ist. In Deutschland wird Zo Bo Wert gelegt
auf eiae abp:schlossene Hochschulbildung mit dem Diplom-Examen,
evtl. der Doktcx-Promotion. Das 1st aber nicht in,allen Landern
der Fall. In Italien wird gesetzlich sin besonderer Fahigkeits-
nachweis verlangt, der nicht unbedingt der,Hoehschulausbildung in .
anderen Landern zu entsprechen braucht. Dies muss also bei Ver-
gleichen beachtet werden. Es kam in der vorliegenden Untersuchung
nicht darauf an, die Vorbildung der Amtsleiter zu analysieren, son-
dern ein weiteres Xriterium far die Organisation der Stadtestatistik
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gewinnen.
Z,claqiesslich wurde als Anhaltspunkt fir eine intensive Arm
bsit der Amter das Verdffentlichungswesen angesehen. So wurde
nicht nur die Herausgabe laufender Monate-, Vierteljahres- und
jahresberichte erfragt, sondern auch die Publikation von Sander-
iantersuchungen, die auf eine besonders intensive wissenechaft-
liche Arbeit des Amtes schliessen lasst. Dadurch wird das
Zahlenmaterial mit einer wissenschaftlichen Auswertung nicht
nur der eigenen Verwaltung zugangig gemacht, sondern auch einer,
breiteren Offentlichkeit, vor allem anderen statistischen Amtern,
wie Uberhaupt der Wissenschaft, Ubergeben. In den letzteren
Fallen witrde es sich also um em n besonders gut brganisiertes und
iausgebautes Amt handeln.
Damit hat sich. die Fragestellung in der Rundfrage des In-'
rnationalen Statistischen Instituts erschopft. Weitere Fragen
ptwa nach der Art der wissens,phaftlichen Vorbildung des Amts-
loiters, nach der Zahl der wissenschaftlichen Mitarbeiter und
des sonstigen Personals, nach dem Vorhandensein technischer
Rilfsmittel oder einer BUcherei, nach der Ubertragung anderer
Verwaltungsarbeiten auf das statistische Amt sind nicht gestellt
Worden, um die Rundfrage nicht zu umfangreich zu gestalten und
damit die Beantwortung.und die Auswertung zu erschweren. So ist
hur em n erster grober tberlick Uber die Organisation des stadtem
statistischen Dienstes maglich. Es wurden auch nur die Verhalt-
nisse in den Grosstadten bertIcksichtigt, um die Antworten nicht
zu komplizieren. Erfahrungsgemass,besteht in den kleineren Stadten
nicht so sehr die Neigung, statistische,Arbeiten in piner boson-
aeren Diensstella zu konzentrieren, wenn auch die Grosstadtgrenze
yon 100.000 Einwohnern fur die SchaffUng eines statistischen Amtes
nicht Uberall massgebend ist.
Urn omen mOglichst volistandigen Uberblick geben zu konnen,
wir4 im folgenden auf jedes einzelne Land eingegangen und die dort
vorandene Organisation, dargestellt. Dabei sei wegen der Verhalt-
nisse in, frUheren Jahren auf die bereits zitierte Untersuchung von
Morgenroth verwiesen, ,die, einen Anhaltspunkt fUr die Veranderung
in den letzten 30 Jahren geben kann. Den Geglogenheiten des Inter-
nationalen Statistischen Instituts entsprechend soil die Beschreibung
er Lader in der alphabetischen Reihenfolge nach der franzdsischen
,chreibwaise erfolgen, zumal in der gleichen Weise in den Verofent-
iichungen des Internationalen Statistischen Instituts, insbesondere
im Internationalen Jahrbuch der Grosstadte, verfahren wird.
DEUTSCHLAND3
In den 54 Grosstddten sind statistische Amter eingerichtet
Worden. Mit Ausnahme von 6 Stadten sind sie selbstandige Dienst-
stollen, in denen die statistischelrbeit der Verwaltung zentra-
Ausfarlich behandelt in Bernhard Mewes, "Die Kommunalstatistikil,
in Handbuch der kommunalen Wissenschaft und Praxis, 'Bd. I, Berlin,
Heidelberg, Gottingen 1956, S. 612, . Vgl?, auch vom gleichen Ver-
fasser, Stadtestatistik$1, im HandwOrterbuch der Sozialwissenr
ischaften, 15. Lieferung, Stuttgart, TUbingen Gottingen 1957, S.63.
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lisiert Jet, Gew6hn1;,t1 it ihnen coach die Aufsicht (Aber die Ge7
schaftsstatistiken der 'obrigen Fachdienststellen ftertragen. In
den 6 Ausnahmeillien handelt es sich zwar um zentralisierte Sta-
tistik, aber um unselbstAndige Stellen, die mit anderen Dienst-
stellen zusammengefaset sind. Ste haben sdmtliche Auftragssta-
tistiken des Statistisehen Bundesamtcs bzw. der Statistischen Lari-
desdmter, soweit sie gesetzlich libortragen werden, ftir den 6rt- ,
lichen Bereioh durchzufthren. Bei den grossen Zdhlungen, also dem
Zensus, erhalten sie ftir diese Arbeiten einen Zuschuss zu den ent!-
standenen Kasten fUr die eigentliche Erhebung und die UberprUfung
der Zdhlpapiere. Sofern bei laufenden statistische n Ermittlungeh
die Ergebnisse bereits bei den stddtestatistischen Amtern anfallen
bzw, zusammengestellt werden, besitzen die Stddte die Ergebnissei
fUr ihre Vorwaltungsarbeiten. Bei dem Zensus oder ether grossen
Wohnungszahlung werden den Stddten die Ergebnisse ftir den ortlichen
Bereich von don Zentralstellen geliefert, so dass die stAdtesta-
tistischen kilter die Auswertung ilbernehmen. Dazu kommen die zahl-
reichen Auftrage der eigenen Verwaltung, die erst eigentlich zur.
Zentralisation der Statistik in besonderen Amtern geftthrt haben
Eigene statistiSche Erhebungen sind nur verhaltnismdssig selten,
da meist die zentralen Erhebungen fUr die ortlichen Zwecke ausge-
wertet werden. Ausserdem sind die Amter mit der Sammlung und Aus-.
wertung des in der Verwaltung anfallenden und sonstigen fUr die
Verwaltung wichtigen statistischen Zahlenmaterials sowie mit der
Anfertigung von Denkschriften und Gutachten beauftragtp die kom-
munalpolitische Massnahmen vorbereiten und die durchgefuhrten Mass-
nahmen beobachten und qberpritfen sollen. Um diese Arbeiten mit &;r
erforderlichen Sachkenntnis ausfuhren zu konnen, sind die leitenden
Stellen mit akademisch vorgebildeten Statistikern besetzt, in dell
moisten Fallen handelt es sich um Nationalokonomen. Von akademisch
ausgebildeten Wissenschaftlern werden 40 statistische Amter gelei-
tet. Mit Ausnahme von zwei Grosstadten werden in den arigen
statistische Publikationen herausgegeben, und zwar in 24 Fallen
Monatsberichtep in 20 Fallen Vierteljahresberichte. In 27 Gross-
stadten werden Statistische Jahrb'acher publiziert und in 28 StAdten
die Ergebnisse statistischer Untersuchungen in Sondervertiffent- '
lichungen herausgebracht. Die Bearbeitung.des Verwaltungsberichts
ist in 15 Grosstadten den statistischen Amtern flbertragen, sie
enthalten ebenfalls umfangreiches Zahlenmaterial qber die Verwalxngs-
tatigkeit. Erganzend sei bemerktp dass in weiteren 17 Stadten klei-
nerer Grossenordnung ebenfalls selbstandige statistische Amter be-
stehen, von denen 6 einem akademisch vorgebildeten Leiter unter-
stehen. Im Statistischen Jahrbuch Deutscher Gemeinden werden fUr
517 Stadte tiber 10.000 Einwohner vrgleichbare Einzelangaben fflr
fast samtliche Vorwaltungsgebiete zusammengestellt. Die Zahlen
sind ausserdem ftir die Grossengruppen und ft& die Lander zusammen-
gefasst. Bisher liegeu 44 Jahrgange vor, die vom Deutschen StAdte-
tag herausgegeben und vom Verband Deutscher Stadtestatistiker be-
arbeitet werden.
In Mittel- und Ostdeutschland bestanden vor dem Kriege 1939
7 statistische Amter unter akademischer Leitung, die auf eine alte
Tradition zurUckblicken konnen, und 7 statistische Stellen in klei-
neren Stadten. So besteht das Leipziger Amt seit 1867, das von
Breslau und Chemnitz seit 1873, das von Dresden seit 1874, von
Plauen seit 1876, von Gorlitz seit 1878, von Magdeburg seit 1885
sowie von Konigsberg seit 1893.
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Nach dem Kriege waren. nUr noch in Halle, Magdeburg, Leipzig
und Erfurt statistlsche Amter vorhanden. Durch Verordrung Uber
die-Reorganisation des statistischen Dienstes in der sowjetl,schen
Zone vom 16. Februar 1950 wurden die kommunalatatiatischen Amter
zu'Kreisstellen, die bisherigen Statistischen Landeamter zu Be-
zirksstellen der Staatlichen Zentralverwaltung LUr Statistik.
Si? sind ausschlieselich cirun W6luungen unterworfun, werden Li-
nanzipll von der Zentralstelle betreut, die auch die Leiter der
Amter anstellt bzw.,entldsst. Eigene statistisdhe Arbeiten wprden
von ihnen also nicht ftir den Ortlichen Beroich durchgefUhrt, eben-
so wie sie keine statistischen Voroffentlichungen herausgeben.
Erstmalig lag Anfang 1957 em n statistischer Vierteljahresbericht
von Leipzig vor, der aber nur wenige Verhdltnisziffern enthdlt.
2. OSTERREICH
In Osterreich,arbeiten 15 Grosstddte am Intornationalen
Statistischen Jahrbuch mit Graz, 'Innsbruck, Linz, Salzburg und
Wien. In ihnen sind selbstdndige statistische Amter vorhanden,
die in 0:ler,,gleichen Weise organisiert sind und arbeiten wie die
deut?chen'Amter. , In Linz und Wien sind Akademiker mit der Leitung
der Amter betraut. Sie geben statist'l.sche Veroffentlichungen her-
aus. Die, zusammenfassende Veroffentlichungber die wichtigsten
,Sachgebiete in 45 Stddten erfolgtim uStatistischen Jahrbuch Oster-
.reichischer Stddtea, das bisher in 6 Ausgaben orschien und vom
.0st,erreichischen Statistischen Zentralamt zusammengestellt. wird..
2. BULGAAIEL1
Die Statistic ist, in den Grosstddten ? in dor gleichen Weise
zentralisiert, wie sic, fir das Land im Statistischen Zentralamt zu-
sammengefasst ist. Die regionalen statistischen Amter sind diesem
unterstellt, sic haben die statistischen Auftrdge (Zahlungen) in
seinem Auftrage durchzufUhren, werten'aber weder die Ergebnisse der
zentralstatistischen Erhebungen aus, noch bearbeiten sic eigene
Zdhlungen oder Gutachten udgln, noch geben sic Veroffentlichun en
? heraus0 werden,jedoch von akademisch ausgebildeten Fachkr ften
geleiteti' In der Zeit nach dem ersten Weltkrieg waren in Bulgarien
keine stddtestatistischen Amter verhandeh. '?
40 DANEMARK
? Kopenhagen und Aarhus habenistatistische limber, in denen die
statistischen Arbeiten der Kommunalverwaltung zentralisiert sind.
Einige Dienststellen, vor allem die technischen, sammeln und werten
ihre eigenen Geschaftsstatistiken, meist in Zusammenarbeit mit dem
Statistischen Amt, aus. Es ist beauftragt mit der Durchfqhrung des
Zensus udg ftir den ortlichen Bereich und wertet dessen Ergebnisse
?aus. Die Amter ftihren auch eigene Ermittlungen durch, vor allem auf
dem Gebiet der Bevolkerungsatatistik, der. Wohnungsstatistik und der
4 Vergl. Hans -Heidenwag, 011ederaufbap. 'der Osterreichischen,Stadte-
statistikvi, in Aligemeines Statistisches Archly., 34. Bd. 150,
S0,176 ff.
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Steuerstatistik sowie auf besonderen kommunalen Sachgebieten und
fertigen,Gutachten und Denkschriften fUr. die Verwaltung an. 'Sie
sind 1114,t lakademisch ausgebildeten Leitern besetzt und geben sta-
tistisehe Veroffentliehungen herausz Kopenhagen Nbnatsberichte,
Jahrbilcher, einen Kommunalkalender und Einzelverdffentlichungen,
Aarhus Vierteljahresberichtes Jahrblicher und Sonderveroffentlichung-
en.
I I
SPANIEN
In den Grosstddten sind eigene statistische Amter eingerich-
tet worden. Von den 22 Grosstddten werden insbesondere Madrid,
Barcelona, Valenzia, Bilbao, Saragossa usw. genannt. Sie fuhren die
grossen Zdhlungen durch, werten aber die Ergebnisse fUr rtliche
Zwecke nicht aus. Alle 5 Jahre veranstalten sic eine stddt. Zdhlung,
ferner verschiedene Erhebungen fUr die Kommunalverwaltung, vor allem
Ober die Leb'ensmittelversorgung und as Verkehrswesen. Ausserdem
' sind sic mit Gutachten und Denkschriften fUr die Verwaltung beauf-
tragt. In Barcelona und Saragossa werden die, Amter von Akademikern
geleitet. HEonatsberichte:geben Palma de Mallorca, Madrid und Barce-
lona heraub, Vi.erteljahresberichte Barcelona, Bilbao und Burgos.
6. FINNLAND
In Helsinki, Tampere und Turku gibt es statistische Amter, sic
fUhren zentrale Erhebungen im allgemeinen nicht du'rch.;-Mit'Ausnahme
des Zensus 1950, werten aber auch deren Ergebnisse nicht aus. Das
wird durch das Stati,.stisphe,Zentralamt bewerkstelligt. Helsinki hat
jedoch tiber das al1emein Tabellenprogramm hinaus Sonderauszdhlungen
fUr das StAdtgebiet vergenommen. Die Statistischen Amter'qbernehmen
eigene statistische Arbeiten, so hat Helsinki eine Reprdsentativ-
statistik ilber die Wohnverhdltnisse und tibqr die Freizeitgestaltung
der4ugend durchgefUhrt. Die Leitung der Amter liegt in den Hdnden
von,akademisch ausgebildeten Statistikern. Sie geben statistische
Veraffentlichungen herausgl4onatsberichte in Helsinki und Jahrbticher
in Helsinki, Tampere und Turku, ausserdem veroffentlicht Helsinki
einen KoMmunalka,lender.
L...ERANIELE
Von den 24 franzosischen GrosstUdten sind in Paris (Bureau
de Statistique, de la Pr6fecture de la Seine) und StrabtbUrg die sta-
tistischen Arbeiten in besonderen Amtern zentralisiert, in ap.Etienne
und Reims in Gesundheitsamt die BevOlkerungs- und Gesundheitssta-
tistik. Diese Amter und in den Stddten, in denen keine zentralen
Amter bestehen, die stAdt. Dienststellen besorgen bei VolkszAhlungen
das Einsammeln und Abliefern der Zdhlpapiere an das Nationale Sta-
tistische Institut. Ausserdem sichern sie die latfehde Eatellung
der verschiedenen Nachweise fUr die Statistik der Bevolkerungsbewe-
gunge Diese Unterlagen werden im Nationalen Statistischen Institut
bearbeitet und ausgewertet. Dip Statistischen Amter von Paris,
Strassburg 'und St. Etienne fUhren auch eigene statistische Erhebungen
durch und fertigen ebenso wie die von Nizza und Reims eigene sta-
tistische Untersu6hungen und Gutachten fUr die Kommunalverwaitung
an. Nur in Paris hat die Leitung em n akademisch ausgebildeter 5th-
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tistiker. Paris, Strassburg und St. Etienne geben eigene sta-
tistische Verdffentlichungen heraus4 Paris Monataberichte und
lahr1. Einzeluntersuchungen, Strassburg alle 10 Jahr? omen Ver.-
matungsbericht, jahrl. em n Statistisehes Jahrbuch, sowie lauf end
Untersuchungen Uber Preis? und Ldhne aowie ander? Untersuchungen
in grdSseren Abstanden. In St. Etienne und Reims werden monat-
liche Berichte des Gesundheitsamtes, sowie jahrl. Tatigkeitsbe-
richte des Gesundheitsamtes verdffentlicht. Auch von anderen
Stddton wie Lyon, Toulouse, Bordeaux p Nantes, Lille, Rennes,
Grenoble, Dijon werden von Fall zu Fall Berichte mit stAtisti-
schen Angaben angefertigt, moist handelt es sich um Bedlke-
rungs- und Gesundheitsstatistiken.
8. GRIECHENLAND
Die Hauptstadt Athen besitzt ein eigenes statistisches Amt.
Da die beiden anderen Grosstadte Piraus und Saloniki nicht ge-
nannt werden, muss angenommen werden, dass hier die statistischen
Arbeiten nicht in einem besonderen Amt zentralisiert sind. Das
Athener Statistische Amt ftihrt jedoch weder zentral angeordnete
Erhebungen noch eigene Zdhlungen far die Verwaltung durch, noch
wird es von einem Akademiker geleitet, noch gibt es Verdffent-
lichungen heraus. Es scheint sich daher nicht um ein besonders
ausgebautes Amt zu handeln.
I 6.1
UNGARN
FUr jeden Verwaltungsbezirk gibt es eine dem Statistischen
Zentralamt unterstehende Statistische Direktion; davon befinden
.0.ch 19 an den Hauptplgtzen der Verwaltungsbezirke und,2 in den
Stadten die den Status eines Verwaltungsbezirks'haben, die abei-
leider nicht genannt sinC Sic fUhren zentrale Erhebungen durch
und wertenisie fUr regionale Zwec4e aUs, sie kdnnen aber auch
eigene Erhebungen durchfUhren, es handelt sichum Industrie-0
Binnenhandel- und Gesundheitsstatistiken. Budapest hat 1955 emn
statistisches Handbuch herauSgegeben. Es 1st beabsichtigt, dass
die einzelnen Statistischen Direktionen ab 1957 Jahrbilcher ver-
offentlichen. Vor dem zweiten Weltkriege war em n Statistisches
Amt in Budapest vorhanden, das durch seine zahlreichen guten Ver-
offentlichungen bekannt war.
NI 144 a..
10. IRLAND
In der Hauptstadt Dublin 1st kein statistisches Amt vor-
handen.
11. 'ITALIEN
Durch Gesetz vom 16.11.1939 1st fur die italienischen.Gross-
stgdte 'fiber 100.000 Einwohner die Einrichtung eines stgdtischen
statistischen Miro vorgeschrieben. Sb e fiihren zwar zentral ange-
ordnete Zahlungen durc.n, wertenaber die Ergebnisse nicht Dlr.
eigene Zwecke der Stadte aus. Sie konnen eigene statistische Er-
hebungen veranstaltenp bedUrfen dazu aber der Genehmigung des Sta.
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tistisehan Zentra1in4titut3. Die offiziellen Verbffentlichungen
goben im allgemeinen die ?Ergebnisse der statietischen Erhebungen
wieder. PU'r die Anteleiter ist nachdem Gesetz vom 24.3.1930 eine
Spezialausbildung'erforderlieh. Von den 28 Grosstddten geben 20
statistieche Monataberichtep ?Ferrara Vierteljahresberichte heraus.
15 Stddte verbffentlichen Statistische Jahrbticherp wenn such nicht
in alien Jahreniaie Mailand 1939 und Modena 1949. Florenz hat
auseerdem eine besondere Monographie herausgebracht.
NORWEGEN
'Statistische Amtor sind in Oslo und Bergen errichtet. Sie
fUhren Erhebungen ftir das Norwegische Statistische Zentralamt durchp
werten teilweise die Ergebnisse ortliche Zwecke aus. Als eige-
ne Erhebungen sind Krankenhausstatistik, Schulstatistikp Wohnungs-
statistik, Verkehrsstatistik genannt. Auch werden sie mit .Gutach-
ten fttr die Verwaltung beauftragt und werden von wissenschaftlich
ausgebildoten Statistikern geleitet. Neben Monatsberichten, Vier-
teljahresberichten und Jahrbi1chern ist von Oslo eine Nile von
Einzelschriften verzeichnet. Bergen gibt nur Vierteljahresberichte
und em n Jahrbuch herausp Seltener SonderverOffentlichungen.
13. NIEDERLANDE
Von den Grosstddten haben nur Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Haag,
Utrecht, Eindhoven und Tilburg em n eigentliches statistisches Apt,
'von denen Amsterdam und Haag den grossten Wirkungskreis haben.
'Ihre Selbstandigkeit 1st verschieden. In Utrecht und Eindhoven
sInd. ihnen auch andere als rein statistische Angelegenheiten tiber-
traien. Daneben gibt es in Arnheimp Nimwegen, Enschede, Almelo,
Hilversum, Maastricht, Zaandam sogenannte Soziographische Amter,
'moist als Dienststellen der Stddtischen Bauamter, bisweilen als Tell
der Gemoindekanzlei. Sic sind verschieden in Grosse und Bedeutung
.und beschdftigen sich neben der Statistik mit der Stadtplanung.
stddt. statistischen Amter fUhren teilweise zentral angeordnete
hebungen. durch und bearbeiten moist ftir die Stadtviertel die Ergp
nisse zehtraler Erhebungen. Die kleineren'statistischen oder die
soziographischen Amter machen diose Auswert,ungen nicht. Eigene
statistische Erhebungen werden in den grosseren Stadten durchge-
fUhrt, z.B0 die von Haushaltsrechnungenp in Amsterdam zuletzt eine
Stichprobenerhebung tber den Theater- und Konzertbesuch sowie ttber
die StudentenunterkUnfte. Ebenso werden Gutachten Air die Ver-
waltungen angefertigt. In Amsterdam, Utrecht und Eindhoven sind,
. die L4ter wissenschaftlich ausgebildet, den kleineren soziografi-
schen .Amtern 1st moist em n Akademiker, der Sozigrafie studierte,
ivorgesetzt.' meisten Xmter geben Publikationen heraus, und 'zwar
Monatsberichte. Vierteljahresberichtep Jahrbticher, Taschenbttcher.
Einmalige Sondervertiffentlichungen werden nur in Amsterdam heraus-
gebracht, in deren NStatistischon Matteilungenu seit 1894 137 Hefte
erschienen sind.
24!L POLEN
In den Grosstadten sind die statistischen Dienststellen inner-
halb der Ortlichen Verwaltungen unabhangige Abteilungen0 Aufgaben
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und Arbeitsplan warden vom Statistischen Zentralamt im Einverstand-
nip mit den Nationalrdten ausgearbeitet Das Zentralamt hat ferner
dip Aufgabe, di o Ortlichen Dienststellen z4 instruieren land zu kon-
tr011ieren. Die Leiter der statistiechen Amter werden vom Zentral-
atilt ausgewnhit, infolge der in der letgten Zeit eingefahrten De-
zeptralisierulig der Wirtschaftsverwaltung,und im Zuge des Anwach-
sens der Aufgaben cler Nationalrate n4.mmt.aucti der Aufgabenbereich
der statistischen Amter zu, was zu einer Personalvermehrung Pahrt.
Bei der AusfUrung der Aufgaben sind die Belange des Zentralamts
neon denen der Ortlichen Nationalrdte zu beachtpn. Die stadte-
statistischen Amter beteiligen sich daher auch aktiv an den all-
geOeinen Zahlungen, darUber hinaus konnen sic Ortliche Erhebungen
d4tchftihren, bedUrfen dazu jedoch grundslitzlich. der Zustimmung
dea Zentralamts.
' 15. PORTUGAL
In Lissabon und Porto sind die statistischen Arbeiten nicht
in einem besonderen Amt zentralisiert. Sie werden, in den einzelnen
statistischen Dienststellen der Verwaltung'durchgefUhrt. Es gibt
auch keine statisti,schen Veroffentlichungen. Die Dienststellen
liefern jedoch statistische Tabellen far den stkitischen Verwaltungs-
bericht.
11 1 1 1 111 1 1 11 1 1 11 1111
16, GROSSBRITIEN
Mit Ausnahme von Birmingham, wo em n besonderes Statisisches
Amt eingerichtet 1st, sind in den Ubrigen Grosstadten die statisti-
schen Arbeiten nicht zentralisiert. Die kommunalen Fachdienst-
stollen befassen sich rn1 routinemassigen Untersuchungen far Ver-
waltungszwecke. Einige Amter, wie z.B. die Gesundheits4mter,
fUhren gelegentlich ortlich begrenzte Erhebungen mittels Inter-
viewer durch, um Angaben aber die Lebensbedingungen bestimmter
Bevolkerungsgruppen zu erhalten. Von den zentralen Regierungs-
stellen werden bei den ortlichen Gemeindeverwaltungen zahlreiche
Statistiken angefordert. Nur wenige Stadte bringen statistische
Veroffentlichungen heraus. Gewohnlich enthalten die jdhrlichen
Verwaltungsberichte auch statistische Angaben. Ein Statistisches
Jahrbuch veroffentlicht Birmingham.
12.1.....?.211EPEE
In Stockholm und Goteborg bestehen selbstAndige statistische
At4er, die allerdings nicht mit zentralen Erhebungen beauftragt
sind, auch keine regionale Auswertung dieses Materials yornehmen.
Sie fthren aber eigene Erhebungen durch, fertigen Denkschriften
und Gutachten an und werden von wissenschaftlichen FachkrAften ge-
leitet. Stockholm gibt wochentlich6 Berichte, Monatsberichte, Jahr-
bacher heraus und hat eine grosse Zahl von Sonderuntersuchungen sta-
tistischer Art verOffentlicht.
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Bern und ZUrich 4ben kommunale statistisohe :After, Basel und
Genf dagegon kantonale Amter. In Lausanne bosteht kein Statisti-
sehes Amt, di Statistlk it dort noeh dozontralisiort. Die gem
nannton'Statistischon Amter ftihron zentrale Erhebungen duroh und
werton das,Material fill, die Ortlichen Stollen aus. Sie voranstalten
auch Ortliche Erhebungen, fertigen Denkschrifton und Gutachten far
die eigene Verwaltung an. Mit Ausnahme von ?Genf sind die leitenden
Stollen mit wissenschaftlich ausgebildeton Statistikern besetzt
Sio geben mit Ausnahmo von Genf statistische Publikationen herausp
und zwar monatlicho Pressemitteilungen, Vierteljahresberichte sowie
Jahrbticher) ausserdem auch Einzeluntersuchungen in grOsserem Um-
fango. Die Zusammenfassung der Zahlen von 24 Stddten lber die ver-
schiodenen Sachgebiete erfolgt im ?Statistischen Jahrbuch des
Schweizerischen Stddtoverbandee, das 1955 in der 23 Ausgabe vorlag.
19. TSCHECHOSLOWAKEI
Der statistischo Dienst ist in den einzelnen stddtischen
Dienststellen dezentralisiert. Nur Prag ist eine Ausnahme, seine
statistischen Arbeiten sind teilweise in der regionalen Abteilung
des Statistischen Amtes dor Tschechoslowakei zentralisiert, und
zwar so welt Prag als Hauptstadt in Frage kommt. In Zukunft sind.
VerbesSerungen hinsichtlich der Organisation der Stddtestatistik
beabsichtigt. Danach sollen die besenderen ortlichen Statistiken
von den einzelnen Abteilungen der Comites Nationaux MUnicipaux er-
stellt werden, es handelt si,n vex' allem um Wohnungs- und VerkOrs-
statistiken. Die Leitung in laethodischer Hinsicht soil beim Sta-
tistischen Zentralamt liegen, das,gleichzeitig die Herausgabe vpa-
tistischer ,Veroffentlichungen, die einige ausgewahlte Stadte bek-
treffen, vornimmt. Vach dem 1. Weltkxieg waren in Prag, Brann Und
Pilsen ,statistische Amter vorhanden.
20. JUGOSLAWIEN
In den 5 Grosstddten sind die statistischen Arbeiten in be-
sonderen statistischen Amtern zentralisiert, die die zentral ange-
ordneten Zdhlungen durchfuhren und far regionale Zwecke auswerten.
Eigene Erhebungen sind nur mit Genehmigung des Statistischen Zen-
tralamts moglich. In 3elgrad und Agram obliegt die Leitung akade-
misch ausgebildeten Personen. Monatsberichte veroffentlicht
Skoplje, Vierteljahresberichte Belgrad und Sarajewop Jahrbacher sind
in ,Belgrad und Agram in Vorbereitung.
Als Ergebnis dieser Darstellung der Organisation in den ver-
schiedenen europdischen Ldndern soil eine Gruppierung der ypen der
stadtestatistlschen Anther versucht werden. Dabei gibt es tbergdnge,
, so class eine klare Abgrenzung der einzelnen Gruppen voneinander nur
schwer,moglich ist. Je nach dem Grad der Konzentration der sta-
tistischen Arbeiten in einem besonderen Amt sind 3 Gruppen von L4n-
dern zu unterscheiden) wobei von dem augenblicklichen Stand ausge-
bbjk
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gangen wird
I. 'Die 'Vete Gruppe bildet die Lander, in deneh es keine
oder Mar wenip stati3Oische Amt.ergibt,,In denen die Statistik
nicht zentmlisiert, .sondermunausgelt;st bei den einzelnen Fach-
diensstellen der Verwaltung bearbeitet Wird), wie es in zamtlictien
Landern vor der Grunclung der statiitisahen.:Amter lablich war. Hier
'ist Grossbritahnien mit Ausnahme von. Birmingham zu nennen, Frapk-
retch mit Ausnahme von Paris und Stratsburg,Portugal und die
Tschechoslowakei. ,Hierher wurde auch Irland 1Dehdren, das kein
stadtestatistisches Amt besitzt. Damit ist j-tdoch nicht gesagt,
daso in diesen lAndern keine stRdtestatistische,Arbeit, geleistpt
Sie it den' einze1nen Fachdienststellen Uberlassen, die
die bei ihhen anfajlenden Zah1en sammeln und verwerten.. Sie
kann dahtr far die Gemeinden.nicht so wirkungsvo11 arbeiten wie
'die zentralisierte Statistik, wis bereits in dem Fehlen yen sta-
tistisphen Publikationen zum Ausdruck kommt. Auch diese Form ist
auf die dort herrschende Staatsauffassung und auf die Stadtever-
fassung zurackznfahren. ? ?"?? It .1" ? Vt
II. In den meisten LUndern Europas, namlich 11, sind in
den Grosstadten eigcne statiEtische Amter eingerichtet worden,
eine Organisationsform, die sich fast 100 Jahre erhalten hat,
wenn sich auch Organisation Lind .Aufgabenkreis spit dieser Zeit
gewandelt haben, wie c.uch die Zustandigkeiten der ,ortlichen Ver-
'waltungen.einem Vechse1 unter1agen. Von diesen Xmtern werden in
'den meisteft'Fallen die grossen Zah1un3er. der,Zentralstellen durch-
gefahrt und die Ergebnisso dieser Erhebungen fr ,den Ortlichen
Bereich ausgewertet, so dass die Stadtvcrwaltungen die benotigten
Zahlen erhaltend Ausserdem werden eigene statistische Erhebungen
und Untersuchungen veranlasst .sowie Gutachten far die'Vetwaltung
pfertigt. Dib meisten dieser sttistischenAmter haben einen
akademisch ausgebildeten Leiter angestel1t. Sie veroffentlichen
das gesammelte Zahlenmaterial in Monatsberichten, Vierteljahres-
berichten und JahrbUchern, ausserdem werden in einigen Stadtea
auch einmalige Sonderveroffentlichungen herausgegeben, um die Er-
gebnisse besonderer statiritischer Untersuchungen einem 14eiteren
Kreise zugangig zu ,machen. ,Durch diese Organisationsform, also
durch Zentralidation der statistischen Arbeiten an einer Stelle,
doll eine mbglichst grosse Wirkurv.; far den Bereich der Kommunal.-
verwaltung erzielt warden. Die 'Amter sind selbstandige Dienst.
,stellen im Rahmen der Ortlichen,Kommunalverwaltung. Sie haben
durch ihres aus dor tirtlichen Sicht unternommenen wiesenschaft.
lichen Untersuchungen methodisch und soziologisch wertvolle Er-
,
kenntnisse zur getsamten Statistik beigetragen. In Deutpehland
warden z.B, durch die Arbeiten der stadtestatistischen Amter
wichtige Vorarbeiten far die Bundes- und Landesstatistik geleis-
tet. Viele Erhebungen de zun4chst nur von der Stadtestatistik
als zum eigenen Aufgab'enbreich gehorend, durchgefahrt wurden,
wurden spAter von der Reich- bzw. Bundesstatistik Ubernommen,
als das Sachgebiet sich meh.: und mehr in die Gesetzgebungskompe-
tenz des Bunde8 verlagerte. Solche wissenschaftlichen Leistungen
sind nur bei der Konzentration srntlicher stati.stischen ArbeAten
in einem besonderen Amt moerlich, da nur in diesem'Falle em n Uber-
blick ilber das gesainte vorLndene Material gegeben ist. Im libri-
gen existieren nicht in alien Grosstadten der hier in Frage kern-
sq,"
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menden Lander derartige kter. Einen Vbergang zur, dritten Organi-
sationsfurmIoieten die Verhaltnisse in Italied,?wo die Arbeit der
zwar gesetzlich vorgesohriebenen statistischen Amter eingeschrankt
wird durch die' Genehmigung des Zentralamtes ftir drtlich beabsich-
tigte Erhebungen und Untersuchungen, die die freie Entfaltung der
Stadtestatistik etwas einschrankt.
III. Ochliesslich ist noch in weitare Organisationsform
erkennbar, die sich in den zentralistisch organisierten Staaten des
Ostens findet. Es handelt sich um Mitteldeutschland, Polen, Ungarn,
Bulgarien und Jugoslawien. Dort ist die Zentralisation der steams
tistischen Organisation?bis zur letzten Konsequenz getrieben. Es
sind zwar statistische Amter in den Grosstadten vorhanden, in dimen
die statistischen Arbeiten im ortlichen Bereich zentralisiert sind,
sie sind aber direkt den statistischen Zentralstellen untergeord-
net, die Auggabenbereich und Arbeitsmethode vorschreiben und di0
Leiter der Amter anstellen und entlassen. Infolge der zeptrali?
sierten Verwaltungsorganisation kann nicht mehr von selbstandigen
statistischen Amtern gesprochen werden, es sind der Zentralgewalt
nachgeordnete Dienststellen. Infolgedessen konnen sie eigene Er-
hebungen nicht oder nur mit Genehmigung der Zentralstellen veran-
lassen und Uben keine Publikationstatigkeit aus. Es gibt dort
keine Stadtestatistik als SelbstverwaltungsstatiOik, sondern Lan-
desstatistik mit ortlichen Nebenstellen. In Polen und ,Jugoslawien
ist im Zuge der Bestrebungen zur Dezentralisation beabsichtigt, die
statistischen Arbeiten in .Zukunft wieder etwas mehr'zu dezentrali-
sieren.
Nach diesen ersten zusammenfassenden Untersuchungen sollten
in der nachsten Zeit die gewonnenen Ergebnisse durch weitere Rund-
fragen erganzt und erweitert werden,' um das erlangte Bild zu ver-
vollstandigen und die Vielfalt der Organisationsformen der Stadte-
statistik deutlich sichtbar zu machen.
RESUME
C'est deja au moyen gge quo l'on trouve, dans l'une ou l'au-
tre municipalite, des recensements de statistique municipaux, c'est-
A-dire, une organisation de statistique dans divers pays, pourtant,
ce,n'est gu6re qu'A la premiere moitie du XIXe si?e quo remontent
les bureaux de recensements de statistique, municipaux, soit une
organisation de statistique dans les divers pays. Cette derniee
dolt 'ori origine au developpement Lndustriel eta la concentration
de la population qu'elle entraina dans les villes0 Ii s'ensuit:que
les administrations municipales eurent des difficultes A embrasser
dun coup la population, son accroissement et sa structure, de
sorte qu'il fallut de plus en plus recourir A l'aide d'exposes de
statistiques. On recolta done les chiffres de statistique disperses
dah6 les differents bureaux d'administration A un bureau central, oa
us allaient se trouver a la disposition de toute l'administration
et surtout de la direction administrative.
L'institut International de Statistique a fait une enquOte
afin de r6aliser la situation actuelle de l'organisation de statisti-
que des grandes villes europeennes. Les r6ponses de vingt pays quo
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nolo avons sous les yeux) divergent les,unes des autres. La dite
organisation dopend essentiellement de la constitution rondo? sur
lefdroit public de chaque pays. ,Dans la plupart des pays, des
bureaux de statistique ont ete institu6s, propres a chaque'grande
ville. La statistique la moins centralisee est celle des grandes
villes de France, de la Orande-Bretagne, de l'Irlande, du Portugal
et de la Tchocoslovaquie. Outre Paris, Strasbourg et Birmingham,
les aures grandes villes de co pays no poss6dont point de bureaux
de,atatistique. Les travaux de statistique y sont ex6cutes par des
bureaux detaches.
4 En Pologne, Bulgaria et' Yougoslavie, de Tame qu'en Allemagne
cenrale, des bureaux de statistique ont bien'et6 6tablis dans les
grOdes ville6, toutefOis, ils d6pendent des burlaux d'arrondisse-
mens des bureaux'centraux de statistique, et n'ont a effectuer
augun travail d'eux-mames',,A. moms qu'ils n'en aient l'autorisa-
tign.de la 'part des bureaux Oentraux. De co fait, leur mission
est-elle, en lour qua1it6 do bureaux 4o statistique, fort restreinte
et obtient4ainsi un caract5re diff6rpnt do celui des autros pays.
Le r6seu le plus dense de bureaux municipaux est bion celui
de la F6d6ra.6ion r6pub1icaine de l'Allemagne, ou,se trouvent des
bureaux de statistique clans chacune de ses 54 grandes villes. La
direction de 40 de ces bureaux se trouve en main de statisticiens
de formation acad6mique. L'organisation dos pays scandinaves,
des Pays-Bas, de l'Autriche, de la Suisse. et de l'Italie sont du
meme genre. En Italie, elle est mfte proscrite pour toute ville
comptant plus de 100 000 Ames, tandis quo dans les autres pays,
cc no soit pas chaque ville qui possbde un bureau de statistique.
L'er,kqueite de'l Institut International de Statistique regarde
de plus les questions suivantes;, les bureaux municipaux de sta-
tistique poursUivent-ils des enquetes en faveur des bureaux con-
traux et aurtout, exploitent-ils les r6sultats de recensements de
cc genre en faveur des bureaux regionaux? On aura alors, un aperp
g6n6ra1 des publications de statistiques periodiques et uniques,
qui seront pub1i6es par les bureaux de statistique des grandes
villes.
SUMMARY
Statistical censuses were undertaken by various municitios
in individual cases already in the Middle Ages, the establishment
of municipal statistical offices) however, i.e0 an organization
of statistical services in various countries, can be registered
only'in.the second half of the 19th century as a result of growing
industrialization and subsequent concentration of people in large
towns; Owing to this concentration it became more difficult for
municities, to survey the population, its growth and structure.
Therefore, they had.more and mbre to make use of statistical
activities. The statistical figures, previously filed in various
scattered administration-offices, were now compiled at one central
office and consequently at the disposal of the entire administration,
in particular of that of the management of administration?
At the beginning of 1957, the International Statistical Institute
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?
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started an inquiry by circular, to ascertain the present state of
organization of statistical services in the large towns of Europe.
The answers received from 20 countries reflect a different situation.
The organization depends decisively on the public law constitution
of the country. Large towns of most of the countries have esta-
blished special statistical offices. Less centralized are statis-
tical services of large towns in Franc/J, Great Britain, Ireland,'
Portugal, and Czecho-Slovakia. The other large towns of these
countries, expected Paris, Strasbourg, and Birmingham, do not keep
up central statistical offices. There the statistical services
are executed in various offices.
In Poland, Hungaria, Bulgaria, and Yugb-Slaviar as well as in
Central Germany statistical offices were established, but they re-
present dependant regional sub-offices of statistical central of-
fices and don't have to execute any activities of their own, or
with approval of central offices only. Consequently their scope of
duties as independant municipal statistical offices has been limited
largely, and they are, compared with other countries, of specific
character.
The tightest net of municipal statistical offices is that of
the Federal Republic of Germany, where statistical offices are
located in all of the 54 large towns, among them 40 under the
direction of university-trained leaders. The organization has been
centralized in a similar way in the Scandinavian countries, the
Netherlands, Austria, Switzerland, and Italy. In Italy it is even
provided by law for municities with a total population of more than
100.000; in the other countries don't have all of the large towns
their own statistical offices.
The investigation of the International Statistical Institute
dealt additionally with the questions, whether municipal statistical
offices have to undertake inquiries for central services, and .
primarily, whether they have to analyse the results of such censuses
for the regional offices. Moreover, it comprises a survey on the
periodical and occasional statistical publications, issued by the
statistical offices of the large towns.
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II
INTERNATIONELLA STATISTISKA INSTITUTET
L'INSTITUT INTERNATIONAL DE STATISTIQUE
THE INTERNATIONAL STATISTICAL INSTITUTE
30 SESSiON
$TOCKHOLM
fl/11-15/11 1957
9UEL9UES REMJIR9US SUP LA LISTRIBUTION DE CINTERVALLE
ENTRE LE MARIAGE ET LA PREM11RE NAISSdINOE PAR AGE DE LA
MERE ET JON DOMICILE (URBAIN - RURAL)
pnr
DOLFE VOGELNIK
Fcicult des Sciences giconomiques, Ljubl ann,Ynugoslavie
Sources et type do populntion 6tudie
1=7
Nous p,rosentnns dans cotto communicetion les r4su1tats
partiels d une plus vest enque3to gub, nouslIvons mendeau sein
du Sdsminaire statistique de la Facalt des sciences dconomiques
de Ljubljana sur l'espacement ds naissance.s.en Slovenie. La
p)puletion yougnslave est nu point de vue d4mographique trs
diff6rente et les. diverse cernctristiques calcul4es? pour la
popUlation enti&re sont peu.reprsentctives. Ce8t.liourquoi
la limitction de 1 'enqut u une partie, bien d4termini4e et
hautement, homoOne peut rev6tir, crnyons nnus,quelque int4ret
plus n' tout,particulrement perce quo nous cvons
ossalo a eltudiei, 1 espacement des naissances comae tonction
de l'Age de le mare et de.snn domicile urbain. nu rural.
Let population doY61.ove!nie une des r6publiques populaires
de la,Yougoslevie repr6sonte une 'population relativement
6vnluee,au ooirit de vue d?mnFraphique at oponomique. VnilA
quelqueparnmAtres ce.rnct6ristiques de cette pnpulatinn (en
parenthese nous dnnnons t'A titre de compeataisnn los velours
moyennes pour tnute la populntion ynugnslave; d'aprs les
r4sultots du recensement de la pnpUlatinn de 1053 at des
statistiques de l'tat'civilen 1953):
populPtion: 1,5 millinns (17,0);
pnpulation active agricnle: 43 % (62 %);
population illettr4e.g6e de dix ans' at plu.8:1,0% (24,4%);
.taUxbrut de ,natalite: 22 %% (2B %),
tacix:brut 'de tortalit,4: 10 W.(1240,
m-orta1it6 ?infantile.: (pour 1000 n4-vivants): 59 (116);
reijroduction brato.: 1,42
prance de vie .r:A la naissance: (femmes): 64, 76 ans.
1
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most
?????,.?
L'exiqu8te a 6td base sur 1'61aboration ddtaill4e des
fiohes statistiques oriiiinales des qaissanoes de la popula-
tion entire de la Slovenie des annees 1i)48 1955 Vaprbe
la dete de naissanoe, date du maria, Age de la mere,
dimension CO 1E1 naissanoe et lieu de naissanoe. Les
fiohes des annees de 1951 et subs, oontenaient le date
onmpltite du mariage (jour,, moist annE5e), tandis que les
fiohes des ann4esopreo4dentes n'indiquaient que Is durde
du mariage en annees.
Dans oette communication nous ne'donnons que les
resultats sur la distribution da l'intervalle entx:e
mariage et is premiere naissance par Age de la mere, et
son domicile(urbein-rural).
II
Niethode
Les donn6es - nous n'avons consid4r4,que,les ne-
vivants - ont ?subi le double classement d apres is date
de naissange at is date du.mariage. Oe double classement
ayermis,d attribuer les naissencec aux cohortes bien
determinees. des manages des ann4es 1948 a 1954.
?
Pour dliminer le plus possible 1 influence des
faoteurs secondaires on a cherch4 a arriver aux distribu-
tions typiques'en calculant les veleurs moyennes pour is
lodriode observ6e.
, Pour is distribution typique de 1 'intervene de is
? A A
13remire annep p a.r m0 s les.moyennes ont ete calau-
? 0
ldes, a. is base des donnees mensuelles ,des annees 1951 a
1954. '
Dans le calcul des moyenn0 des intervalles p a r
anh4es onada recoUrirfg. un Pro0404 sp4cial pour
pouvoi; tirer le plus e,information.i.des.detesdisponibles.
Les frequences les plus completes m'existaient que pour
le cohorte de 1948 pour laquelle on a pa obtenir le
classement de l'inervelle de HO a 6 axis .(1). .Pour cheque
whorte suivante 1 interyalle se reduit d un an 8insi que
pour la cohorte de 1954 on ne diose que des naissances
.de la premi6re ann4e (voir les frequences brutes du Tableau
TII Nft6d8 %inns obligees hous.arrfterlA le septi6me aarve';e du
A
manage comme la limite superieure de nos.recherches de
a, esPacement dee Premikires naiesances. Comission des
,naissances:survenues dans les 9,nnees subsequentes tout
o
e ano n?inttnduit Pas, elaPreS notre.oittaiOn, des
alterations sensibles dans la );di.tribution de I"intervalle
dtant donn4 clue I:Intervene mbserv4 de 0 a-6.ans'embtasse
nviton..99 p.o. d6''t6utes les,Premires naissahpes
."441
?
- 3 .
TABLEAU 1. DISTRIBUTION DE L'INTERVALLE ENTRE LE MARIAGE
ET ;oh PREMItRE NAI63ANUE. ,FRAUENUES ABSOLUES
Intervalle
Uohortes
1948, 1:i49 1950 'i'951 1952 ' 1953 1954
Moins ,
de 1 an . 6671
1 an 2380
2 ans 726
312
4 132
5 105
6 68
6203 629 15428 5558 5852 6454
2546 2482 2104 1920 1955
762 695 592 611
292 317 272
156 149
94
A
Itagoportion de is frCquence (pour 1000 premieres
naissances) de l'intervalle "6 ens" n,e done pa, We base
que sul: le distribution de, lo cohorte de 194Ey'. ElTddsignent
les frequences le:.cohorte de 194e Oav n
n n
, ), 9 6,48'
? ? ?
le premier souscrit se ref6rent 1 intervalle, on t eu pour
is prrportfon des fr6quenoes de l'intervalle "6 ens":
Ma.
Pour le,proportion des fr6quences de l'intervelle
"Sans" nous nous sommeS bass sur les cohbrtes gle 1948
et,19491 en calculation cette,proportion de l'Oquation:
WM*
?
n
-5.A8 5,49
5, 5
?,n n
8 . ? 1 "
I9
4r
in a - Sanitized Cop Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043Rnn1nnRnnnoJz
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3
Pnur 1 pr;'tinn p ,nn 0 QU
P n4 48 4 1V 4- n4,50
4
+ A
< n
. n
gs. ,
48 i49
o ' o, '50
*re 0?11111111i
4
( 1)6 t P5 )
el.ainsi de suite pnur leicalcul des prnportinns p30 p21
! ? ? '
prnpOrtinns p6 et 1)14, les prnportinns les plus
impnrtantes, cnuirrant,envirn de tnutes les
prem16res haissance8, snnt,b6sessur los'enhnrtes de 1948
a 1953 ei spnt dnne bin reprtisentatives.
III
Intervalles ptr mnis de fa premiLie annele du mariage
En,se rattaahmt tnut 'd'abord a 'le'distributinn tntal6
(voir ..8,!Tablecl et le Graphique) nous constatonS
qu'elle est 'doteris6e-ar une.c-ourba:timodaleadeux
sommets, l'un dans le 100 etl'autre teals le 58 mois
apr6s le mariage. Comm l'a d4montr4 M.L. Henry dans son
Etude statistique sur l'espacement des naissances
(PcTulation, 1951, Nn, 3), los naissances survenues
apres le 66 mois du mariage doivent,atre consid6r4es
comme des na1ssanc4s sin:ye:es deS:-e4riaeptinns
nuptiales', tandis'qUe les naissances des premiers
6 mois du mariage doiyent gtre-:considt5r4es come: des
naissances surgies des crInceptions a n t -
nuptiale s.
? pour
boo
boo
ANSEMBLE
o 1 2 3 9 10 II.
IMP
010?001110,11111111?1011111110011W
pour
boo
00
e? 0
?
?
?
?
?
DuMICILA
?urbain
rum]. SI MOM
=IP
2o0.24. ane
mo a mo
DISTRIBUTION DE LIINTEktVALLE ENTRWLEMARIAGE ETU
NAISSANCE 'PUN VREMIER ENFANT - par moi a de la premilre
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?. 6 IMP
TABLII1AU II, NAISAWQ-gS VAR MOL-4i DAN F.3 LES 12 PREMIERS M013
DU MARIAGE
(pour 1000 naissnnces dans cos 12 mnis)
Intor- Exlsam- Dnmioile
van.? l'1.(i) Crnupos d'ago de la femme de le femme
15-19 20-24 25-2Q 30-34 35-44 urbain rural
Mnins
6e lmois
lmn..!.s 70
a5
3 100
A 1T7
?? 1(ifi
I 111 82
1."
MOP
8 - rr
/0
104
10 4-* 38
11
41 42 GB 54 53
61 39 44 68 70
1/3 64 70 78 86
86 71 75 91 103
cv.) 90 40 128 103
07 47 131 99
81 38 68 107 76
C7 63 35 78 GO
85 70 72 76
r7:1 94 ?.28 143 165 73 110
q6 110 137 165 70 02
82 56 81 05 135 50 72
EnglmKe 10,0 1000 1()O. 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000
Laobimndvait6 anur3 fnit penser qu?11 $#agit, t vrai
dire, d we cour, t.lomposQ5e, prnvanant de deux distribu-
timns. 616menta1res c..vorses correspondant chocune'a des
comportemonts bian di:6rents des cnuples dens leurs
7:appnts intimes vis-a-vis du mariage.
Ea analysant la distribution totale d'apr6s les
grnupes d'ago de le femme a4 manage, nn peut d4ce1er
dans los distributions de l'intervalle du grnupe d'8ge
de '35 e. (type A :LO la courbe du .graphicon) et du
Fnupo d !!ige de 15 a lg (tyip 3) ces deux distributions
elementeArcs Tansi dens :Lour fnrme.
Lci? typo A de .10 distributir,m caract6ristique pour
les onuples qui se snnt mantes a un age reletivement
tardif -?cn.:ircsir)ond au cnmportement des gens pour lesquels
10 mariage...nopreEent,e la forme a,ssez rigide moralement
et socialoment donnee et acceptee pour le. reglement ,de,
leurz dcSoenduce. La 2orme s'approche assez de pps a
uric fnrE'imaginc idedle qui refl4trait 1 'stat nu il
n'y a ps, 6e conv3ptiosant6nuptiales et ntki le maximum
unique dos ,Dnncept ,
f,nn3 c?ffectue dans les premiers Innis
du Tnarir.jc.
tyDe'.D.de la dtributinn refleteun comprrote-
ment bf_en -diff6reilt. Le pi:xlmum des naissances s est
d6p1n6 tl-sicuche'cequ6 montre quo la plus grande..partie
des nassacIceJe la .premiere ?annee du mariage...provient
des .connepirns annr.ptieles4 Oe ?snnt-le'4e1:5e et 60,
mariage qr,1 fr.:at apparaitre les plus fortes
naissances coret.Jpondant.es aux conceptions qui se snnt
effeetues de 4 a 6 mnis (avant 10 mnriElge. 11s'agit deo.,
couples qui ont .1 dos reppor nntdnuptiaux =is qui se
sont mnIzids sans, hsitotion snnt npor9u8 que,
leurs nntn.uptialix ont nboutt a' laconception a'un
,
.Le 4nmpnrtamnt du :typo 13 es't 9snlument pr4ponduren
?het les remmes -;kunes (Cagc;',Je 15 19 qutnnt le privilegado
no paoae soucir pls-,beeiuon,up,dans leurs,repports des conven-
ttonsisnciales et morales nu mnins 4usou eu mn*Iltipti leurs
rapp0v0 n so mt4rin1isent'dns 1 rivaement de la onnoep-
tion,et dcins 2Arriv6e de l'enf,ant.
'pette cet6gorie compvend cus? les cas nu 3,es couples
uti?sent, dans li prirclo nt6nuptie1e, 'dos mnyens ralti-
conceptl.nnels (y cnmpris l'evortoment vnulu) tdis qui, 6
un moment donne' au lieu de de)ntinuer ls.urs'pretlAues
en.O.conceptionnelles, se ddcident. pour 1 enfant et pour le
144r1,ages
Enfin yo,snnt inclus aussi,1es, cas (cutTePois.dens
ceratines rogi6ns de lo Sinv(inie essez nnmbrqux, Sp4cielement
pnpu1p.t1:1on airic010 nd le'marisoge.na pap 44 onnolu
avant'que, la feMme ait pas 46mnntr6 d un e meni6re suise
fdcnnaie, c'est-A-dire se.crq)acitel ,de clonner au'propridteire
ngricole:un h4ritier.
En regardnnt de plus prig la diotribtitinn d rnupe
d'&ge de 14 6 19 on s aper9oit d un troisike sommet situd
dens le 2e mnis du mariege, evec des frdquences tout a fait
remztrquable,s dans le premier et le 30 mois du mariage. Nous
crnyons qu nn en pout deceler un troisime type de distribu-
tion cnrrespnndant au troisiLne type (C) de onmpnrtement des
couples. Il s'agit des couples qui se snnt aper9us que leurs
rapports antgnuptiela . vont pboutir A le naissance d un
enfant qui coperidant, pour diverses rc.isnns, no pouveient,
pns se decider a taps pnur le mariage. Cest le cos
probablement care:cteristique des jeunes filles qui ont. pout-
otre rdussi ,crAer devent lcs parents (et peut-ftre nussi
devant le,fut,ur pere)Hjusqu' un mnment assez avanc6 le fait
de la, grnIsesse et-qui-sont enfin, aU.dernier moment, poussges
au Mariege pour '6'viter le 'rcproche social '? (et latOrnel
perfois plus forte ,encore); toujnurs eXistont.d.une.nais8ance
Les 'distributions des qroupes d'.gte do 20 a .,34
reprdsentent les ces intermediaires dont 'les .diff4rences
dens l'ellure (vnir les distributions AB1 et AB2 du Graphique)
re'sultent des poids diffdrents des distributions 41gmentaires
dont cues sont composdes. On on p,eut discerner facilement
deux vari4te's intermddiaires, representE"es dans notre
graOique par les,courbes AB' et JB2. ? Aux grnupes d''Age de
25 a 29,et de. 30 E 34 le grrupe des femmes du type A reste?
tnujnurs prepnnd4rant bien que le grnupe des femMes du
comportment type B et provnquant le second sommet des
conceptions antenuptiales se fasSe d4j6.selltir.. A 1.',1ge de
20-24 .axis les conceptions ant6nuptiales-deviennent
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0.16,
IMO
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:04(,)nadrantes, -cu qui poUs66,1 maxiMum-vers,les,cncep-
tinns antauptiales, le second sonnet des con9ept1on2
postnuptiales ne jnunnt qu'un rc1e infthlieut, '
ReVehant la distributihn tetralo 'on voit clue du point
de lue grer0Q partie,de's .conceptions
ii.oviannent dU temps,evnnt IeCCe'14bration du mariageo, c est-
a-dire aDpartiennet. et cOmpOrtement types et C. 0 est
done le'cas leo plUs .f.r4quent, le cas sncialement normal.
Ocasoprouve d une'part que l'acte fnrmel du meriage ne
representel pour le plus grande pertie,des cnuples, une
bvri6re sensible pour leurs rapports entcinuptisa, et
d autre part:quel errivc'e,prophaine de 1 6nfent pousse
ceSooupl0S v,sanctionner leurs,relations par le Mariage.
Le 'graphique tontre eusi lds distributions,de
l'intervalle des neissances pout it populetiOn utbaine
et rurale Tendis quo le ,distribution pnut,tla population
rurele num4riquement preponderente ,-,suit'assez de
'pr63.1a4istribution tptale,',1a distribution pour la
populeticin urb6i,I.e est esseni.Oilement,una distribution
du ty.e B. Ge n est d'aitleurs 4u un des aspects dU fait
bien cohnU quo la vie dens la .V.qlle 'est beaucciup moms
domin4e par les conventions mordles et sociales vis-a-vis
de 1n vie tt le campagne.
IV'
Intervalles par anne5ps
Dans la Tableau,3 figure:titles distributionapar ann6es
pour les piiemitos Sept ann4es ,du mariose coutrant .environ
- 99 p.c. du total des:10.1remire$ n.aisenc.es. Pou les
.
limittances survenues dniis la IJrtmiere'annge du,mariage nous
avons donna la subdivision de l'.intel,svalle de 0 a' / mois
(conceptions ant.6nu tiales) et de 8 ,a:1.1.51pis (goncep-
tions'postnuptibles
t,?
1
X
?g
r
?
1
IMP
TABLEAU III. DiaTT4BUTION DL L'INTERVALLE ENTRE LE MARIAGE
ET 144-1 'ABMItRE NAI66A14E,
Vnleurs ?moyennes 1948-1953
Inter-
valle
0-7 mole
8-11 mois
II
Ensom-i OtoUpes c16 la femme Domicile de le
ble 15-19 20-24 245-29 30-34 35-44 femme
urbein rural
422 50f1 ,;454 363 317 245 453 413
212 . 183 104 250 270 293 164, 223
Moins de
1 an 64 t 687' , C48
1 uri 235 195 i1228
2 ans 70 66 68
3 - 30 29 29
- 15 12 [ 11
.!; 5 - 10, :81 . 10
, 6, 3 , 6
Ensemble 1006 1000 1000
013
247
75
32
14
10
9
1000
587 538
265 318
76 89
37 33
. 17 10
.11 5
7 7
1'000 1000
617
212
76
50
25
13
7
1000
636
241
70
26
12
9
6
1000
?q. On-voit tout (Calbrd' que.fees nai.sspnces con9ues event
le mari,agP, repr4sent:e:nt pnviron, 4202, p.o. de toutes les
premires 'inaissancea,.Aln chiffrelleaucpup plus fi1ev4 du
chiffre quo M. Henry a constP,t4 pOur le Boh6me d'avent
guerre..,,Qe pourcente vane ,assz, consild4rab1ement d'apr6s
'de la femme, tandislu, la Aiff6rence entre le
chiffres pour la posulat,lon urbainp et rurele snnt moms
prononc4es. ?
. , .1
1.1
. I .
Nrvusjitpnsrqhe,rah4, axpliquer pea diff4rences dans la
partie III denote comtunication. Le noibre ti1ev4 des
conceptions antgnuptiales des jeunes femmes a pour conse-
quence que la proportion totale des naissences de 14
premi6re ann4e ?du manage est aussi-plua fortechez les
(junes femmes et qu elle diminue avec l'Age, ce qui 06utit
d autre part ,n4pe3sairement a ce clue l'ordre des proportions
des naissances de la deuxi6me annee du manage soit inverse.
Environ 87 p.c. de toutes les naissances surviennent dens
les deux premi6res enn(Ses du manage. Les ann4es suiventes
du mariage no mnntrent qu'un rpmbre tr6s faible des
premieres naissances. Les frequences' tree faibles dea.
neissances des intervenes do plus de trois axis doivant en
nutre 6tre regerd6m avecrdserve vu be nombre teletivement.
faible des donn4es brutes..
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Co? y A proved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-ninagpnni,wnorw-,,,?
g.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3
110
?
IT
10
sumgABY
Soma observations nn the distribution nf the interval
between the marringe orl(7 the first birth, analysed by
nge.ehd domicile nf mother.
In analysing the dlstribution of tile intervel,s'by
mnnths betWeen the marrge and the first birth of the
,Slovenian pnpulatinn by 'lge and domicile nf mother for
the cohorts of.marrieges of the years 1948 tn 1954 the
6,uthor discloses three types of distributions correspnnding
tO*three,types of tetiavnur nf the ,couples vis-a-vis the
marriage:
Type A, caracteristic for elder couples: nrv births
before the gAghth' month following the marritge' (i.e.
no antemarital cnmcoptiOn), maximum of births in and
zrnund the ,ninth month of iilurriage.
2. Type B, caracteristic for the major part of the
.populqtion,and especially significant for the urban
''pppUlatJron: maximum :1.f births, iathe fifth month of
jaarriage Most, nf birth's in the first year of
ma*.r.iage Aomp"rot:antemeal, -conceptions),
_
3.
Type 0',.ce4',actirirstic for tl*veryoung moth4.rs (age
',groupe 14 :to 19) v., maximum of births in and ax.p.nd ?
the 'second tinlith-nt
The 'author tries to explain the sociological back-
ground f7 thee thre,e paracteristic types of he4avnur.
I
INTERNATIONELLA STATISTISKA INSTITUTET
L'INSTITUT INTERNATIONAL DE STATISTIQUE
THE INTERNATION el STATISTICAL INSTITUTE
310 SESSION
STOCKHOLM
108-15/8 1957
Mrs A. M6d
Hungary
SOME PROBLEMS OF THE STATISTICAL MEASURING OF PLAN-FULPILMENT
IN HUNGARY.
The problems of the statistical measuring of plan-fulfilment cannot
be appraiised but on strength of some knowledge of planning; therefore '
it is neoessary to give a brief outline of this Operation.
In the coUrse of recent years planning has been constantly changing,
developing in Hungary. It began with the Three Year Plan in 1947?
This Plan, then not for all fields of economy, inciuded only.th9 most
important indicators. The plan relating to the next phase, the Fi.ve
Year Plan could, as a result of changes meanwhile having taken pi4ce
in ownership, cover a wider scope of economic and social life but con-
tained, and with right, too, only general data and prescriptions otn-
cerning the main ratios. Besides also more detailed annual plans
were drawn up, with yearly chancing methods. On one hand, more and
more numeLcal data were available, thus ensuring a firmer basis for
planning, on the other, plans were becoming eve' more detailed - 110t.
without having its drawbacks. The view that the more detailed an,
economic plan, the better it is, gained ground. , It is Obvious that
realistic and correct planning r4quires a very wide scope of nliniel,oal
data. Thus, for instance, to be abld to take a decision in the !mot
important problem, how much may be used for consumption and accumula-
tion respectively, obviously the national income must be appraiso4.
To do so, computations have to be made, to cover all fields if economy,
of social and cultural life and a number of important indicators are
needed for all these fields. Not all such computations can, hiwever),
be made binding directives in the form of a "Plan Law"; a part there-
of are simple figures required for the correct determination of the
plans. In the course of the development this.essential difference
between the computations needed for detailed planning and the plan it-
self, became, to a certain extent, obliterated. Thus tasks in the
Plan were prescribed too meticulously and planning assumed some
bureaucratic features imposing heavy administrative burdens. BeYPnd
a certain point, it hampered .local initiatives, the implementation
of actual intentions. While =planning ,was becoming on one hand mos
detailed, at the same time it was also one-sided to some extent
despite most elaborate detailed figures the Plan System did not
elude any computations prescribing as to hew far production 'and, II
distribution was economical.
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The shortcomings of this practice had become obvious and the system
and method of planning have undergone, a marked improvement in recent
years. Plana are being based on an ampler material of computation
than in the beginning and, at the same time, contrary to the too de-
tailed methods of the interim years, the principle to indicate only
the direotion and main internal proportions of the economy, is making
headway., The number of indicators compulsorily prescribed in the
various 'fields has undergone a radical diminuation. The 1957 plans
lay down directives concerning production of socialist industry and
construction, marketing of agricultural products by the state sec-
tor, the mostPeignifioant-foreaastsof,torestry,,forccasts as to
purchasing, the 1957 goods-supply of domestic trade by the Ministries
conoerned, foreign trade and the respective tasks of delivery of the
competent Ministries, prescriptions 6Oncerning education, the develop-
ment of the health and social services, the tasks of housing, the
extent and the division of Investments and renewals, supply of
material ,fundsquid,technical help by ministries, and finally the Wages.
Fund, similarly ,by Mihisiries& Besides', as basis for computation
the most diverse material balances1 the main aggregate data of agri-
cultural .producti,on /orop, cultivation, live-stock/, the development
of stocks, maripowet,baInnee, the development 'Of'.costs 'of production,
the produoti.on and consumption of the National Income., the' data of
purchesing pelmet and of consumer 6ods availale aS"weil as tile'Finan-
cial Balance ate being drawn up.
As tha,,StatePlan thus contains fixed4:conotet,e nuMprie,pro,scriP#ons
coverinira Wide scope of economic,, cultural and life in
form system, it reasonatag that it 'should suffice to maapur,e-,
the fulfilment of each numeric prescription the drawing up iof,: the
'wail.'"known.'Tidn-Tulfilmont,Percentagen indiooe.. The Hungarian
Statistical 'Office hadiactually followed t,hiap;,*a'ti,a,e,f,cili, aqpr,ig time
,andonlrasaireataat .of an .appreciable .developmot..did, it rc.o'gnize.
the thus 'implementing ltstask ,for.maiyv ,it fails to.
001)04'104th' the etz(senca:af the problem.
In orclOt, to get neat to the cote of the task, a distinPt:,lineHhas
to lid-14r4n,ketuen .the actual main intentions if the St's,WP:49.'XI:Ard.
the ,concrete Plan directives aimed at reaching.aue1'ijntentioni.,T11.6'
.genetal ancf*Penstan'taim of t.he Plan in our co4ntiy, is, of eaur66;,
thepOse01:6, raising of .the ,living standard of t46 working people
.as tar*aei ai,rOmstances permit. in this wording, however', th,e aim' lei
So vague that ii'oanndt be .called .a plan. . That it -should 'develop '
into 'a Plan, ,t1.10 main objbatives of the plan have fold6fixed which
determine, 46wMie above ,general aim 'can:andshall,.bp'attained,' how
and by hcw,1nUdh,#he-4virig standard shalZ,Ve'inc;ea6e4,
tent and' vijiat c?otiposiftok the goo.ds..availabIeslial)J,14 pla6,6
at the tITsioitil'offife'itOiid.'atid tO411dt--0.ktOlit they shall be 'Elobumb.
for 1/*"vert't?Hwhqt0it:'81:
must be c,overed from internia or .extornaI, resources. 'Th.esdrpaiy10
.00.400i'Alid:PlAil:beidng-'6tilliiatliei, of '6::e*'.til:''..O'htiTadtbi
further ilan0i4Ve irte.'iMi)16MOnthd:abtv
main objeotives in tile various fields of life. These detailed, con-
crete, numerioal prescriptions are oommonly.indentified with the Plan
itself.
The measuring of those latter plan prescriptions began to prove ob-
viously inadequate when we could account on one hand about the .f4-
filmunt of the detailed plans about the increase of industrial output,
about the growth of trade, about the spending of the funds forecast
for inveatment and, on the other hand, studying economic development
as a whole, its interconnections, we had to ace that the main ob-
jectives, or an appreciable part of them, were at the same time ,loft
unfulfilled. This recognition meant, of course, to a certain extent
a criticism of our planning, but it also throws light on the inade-
quateness of the system develope4 for the measuring of plan-fulfilment.
This has led us to ask: what is to be actually regarded the Plah '
and how it is to be.measured. The answer was that the notion of, Plan
must be interpreted more amply and the methods of its measurement'
must be developed accordingly. al this has led the Hungarian e'
Statistical Office to adopt the view'that as the part-prescriptl.onw.
of the Plat being, for one, of different importance and, for another,
correlated to each other, and since a series of plan-fulfilmentqer-c
centages or any other numeric meane do not give a right order of ?,
importance or express the connections and mutual effects, the measur-
ing of plan-fulfilment is not a more statistical task but rather a
work of economic valuation, analysis, fulfilled with statist4.9a ,
methods. /Beside testing the performance of these:tasKs in :0:101,waY
described here-above, the Statistical Office measures,.*::bour also
the fulfilment of the detailed numeric plans in .ehe usual manrieiq
? ?
About thel methods and problems of amorebroaS
,ing of the planrfulfilment.
As ti o Main tasks of the Plan relate to big genetal connections!, it
naturally follows that in order to give a correct appraisal of' .he
fulfilment of those plans, the statistical methods reserved.foribig
general psocesses must bo applied. In Hungary this ib,donevitli the
aid of the Economic Balance System, parts of which are,:
1. The balance of man-power and of labour force,
2. The balarice of gross material prOduct- / .consisting of two .parts:
1/ Similarly to the concept of the gross national product, the,
of the gross material' product includes the valueOf/Mle,.
Ifingl prdduct and that'at 'provisions for.00nsumption.00fixOd
,.cdpitalbut.Aiffers:from it .1naeMudh-As .itt44.04;49,EL.th.e-Vellle_
of the intermadiatory roduc,t,4
,
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a/ aggregation by economic seotors and by use,
b/ Intereonneotions of gross production and consumption between
economic sectors /the so-called chessboard balance of the
'gross Material product, which has some similarities with the
input-putput tables/,
3. The balance of net material product 2/, showing the production and
the distribution of the net material product,'
4. The financial balances; i.e. the balances of the State Budget, the
balanee of International ;Payments and the balance of the money-
'incomes and outlays of the population.
Though this System of Balances gives, of couree, only in its cam-
pleltity a comprehensive picture of the most important process, in the
following we shall deal solely with the problems of the national in-
come and with those of the computations attached, They are mos0y the
ones containing the data which, from somp points of view as final re-
sults, should give the' nearest information regarding the main tasks -
of the plan.
1
1 4 I 1 S 1 S ? 6 "%81:' 1 41 1
The fulfilment of the plans can be properly valued only against a
long run developtent, if possible 'even more so, than that covering,
numeric' part prescriptions. Thus the first task is to draw up the
Balance of' the National Income at unchanged prices.
To draw up the National ,Income Balance at unchanged prices, in a way
allowihi:for-theequilibrium of,. prodgetion,and,0PnPum7bion,in spite .
of the application of the naturally not quite correct different price
indices and volume prices, is. a',.most,el,aborate statistical task. Ex-
perience has taught us that however great difficulties this way in-
volvespi the methods of computation must be developed until the balance
of the production and consumption sides can be ensured at unchanged
prices. Not until the final figure e of the production and consump-
tion sides tally, can we be sure about the porredotness of the final
result. Since the question cannot be pUt even in such a way that
before the two sides agree we cannot know which of the two values of
the production Arid consumption sides is correct /as it can turn out
and it occurMi4equently in practice that a third, interim value
proves.correct/, it is clear that not until the two sides of the ,
National Income computed at Unchanged prices tally, can wo find means
to 46tablIsh correctly the dynamics of the National Income.
Having mentioned the most general problem
time and cemparability, going over to the
dadwirr.inorsirriworroomemimmesioaridow
of analysing development in
underlying issues proper, ,it
/ The concept of the net material prodUct /i.e. national income/
differs from the concept of the net national product in the estima-
tion of the value of services as we do not measure the value or
rendered services, but its material consumption only.
?
is obvious that the analysis has to be poformed broken down into two
main groups:
?,
1. to what extent and how the living conditions .of t (14orIrs,
changed in. the.given period,
,
0
what has boun done for a future change in the living condi-
,
tions of the workers:
In other words: what has happened in the field of consumption
'
accumulation; In the following I wish. to deal only with the fird.t
group of questions bocauss one single group gives also a picture
the character of problems generally arising and about the ways,of'their
solution.
/I/ National ;noon-) and computations of Real income in measuring plan-
In the analysis of the changes in the living conditions of the popula-
tion, the computation of the consumption side of the EationaliInbcme
offers a good starting point, but let us emphasize: a starting 'point
only. To be able to feature thee living conditions of the population
properly, we have to abandon the circle of National Income computa-
tions; this purpose is best served by, computations of real wages
real incomes.
Row can we .sum up the difference between the approach through
te
Nationa,1 Income on one hand and through real wages -'real incomes on
the other?
, 0
With us the calculation of the National Income starts from the side
of material production, it uses a grouping and valuation corresponding
to the realisation of production; accordingly it covers big fields,
actually giving comprehensive results embracing the population as a
whole. Realwincome, on the other hand, starts from the individual
income resp. individual consumption of the population, uses a classi-
fication by the main groups of the population thus being apt to give
detailed results as to various classes, strata', groups. Besides con4.
1 sumption as per the NatLonal Income covers only the corisWflptiOT of
goods, whereas the computation of Real Income include also that of
services. This, however, does ,not 'mean that when judging the living
conditions of the population, the national income computations can be
dispensed with. It partly gives a picture of the ratio between con-
sumption and accumulation, partly a number of data required for
establishing the real income of the peasantry are based on this balance,
and mainly because the annual dynamics of the population's consumption
_?
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Rs shown on the ooneumption eide of the national ineome offer oontrol
Thr the average real income index of the varioun group of the popula-
tion. If the real illOOMQ indices of the vari oue glroup n of people tyre
\
'correct, their weighte4 averages must ageoe with tho index of the eon-'
eumption of tha total population ns reeulting from the National In-'
con, wW:edue, regal* to the intrineic difference between the two
methods.
The computations covering the living condition of the populatien
cover separately the development of the real wageo and real incomes
of workers belonging to certain mein strata of the population. Theme
calculations show the development of the real incomes nf workers,
employees and peasants and moreover, that of workers engaged in
certain physical and intellective' professionsi The statiotical re-
turns help to analyse the changos the nominal'incomes and the price
level undergo and hew, on one :Ade, the changes in the. earnings
themselves, on the other, those of wage-earners and their proportions
act. They also display.the difference te be found behind the changes
of the living condition averegos. Also how deviations from the
average affect certain layers and how the incomes of various family
types develop, etc.
Whereas ill the case of workers and employees real wages and real in.
comes together with the,development of social allocations give.a more
or less satisfactory picture of their living conditions rosp. changes
of these, in case of the peasantry it is far,Prom satisfactory. The
personal existence of the peasantry is closely interlinked with the
agricultural unit serving its maintenunce: the same goods which
serve their personal consumption can be used alsq for the maintenance
and enlargement' :of its enterprise. Owing to the interchangeability
of consumer goods and factors of production, the peasantry actually
uses the. goods available whether for its enterprise or its personal
needs. -So the examination:of hi 2 consumption alone does not give a
true picture of the development of his full ocOnomicTesources,
living conditions. ,Thus e.g. if we had wanted to judge the living
standard of thespeasantry alone by its consumption, we ought to have
f reported aboUt the very poor year of 1952 /when the peasantry
slaughtered quite'a considerable part of the livestock in lack of
\
fodder, consumed its stocks and was forced to a relatively high con-
sumption/ that the standard of living of the poasantry increased.
On the other hand, about 1953, when the good crop allowed the peasants
to renew their farms, when they could increase livestock, stocks and
consumed relatively less, we should have said that its standard of
. ,
living was stagnating or at least decreased. '
This duality of the living. conditions of the peasantry, its most
complex character as a consumer and producer, makes it imperative that
its living conditions be made subject to double analysis; for one:
similar to workers and employees, the changes in the volume of con
sumption of the peasantry must be expressed; for another: taking into
consideration changes in stocks, the developmen.6 of the real value of
vr,t!f? te. 01 A
r:-.matot,r1"f!**(111,,
?
A'
SNIP
the peasantry's income must be established.
--?
In the present stage of our economy it ts of special importance,to
know from what sources the peasantry draws its income: what is its
income from agricultural production and what is its revenue from:
wages for nonagricultural, industrial, building, etc. work. Such
analysis has shown that in recent years, due to,the relative backward.-
nose of agriculture, the ratio of peasantry's income from agriculture
has greatly d,ecreased and that from, industry increased. Similarly,it is
most important to examine the proportion between income in money and
In kind. The development of income in kind should-give an idea about
the supply of the overwhelming majority ofthe fundamental consumer
goods, ,income in,money showsothu?extent of the relations with town,
industry, culture. it is further most timely to clear up the problem,
to what extent the peasantry covers its needs of consumption from own
production and how for from the central stock. We submit also the
questitn of price movements to thorough scrutiny.. Prices, thro4gh
the'money-'ane'goods-connections between peasantry and State on the'
one hand, and the peasantry and the rest of the population on the other
hand, can appreciably influence its participation in the National In-
come.
t.
It is therefore that we examine most thor9ughly the movement of prices
in respect of articles sold and purchased by the peasants and their
corolation. In view of the town-dwellers, special attention is paid
to the changes pe the free market prices as reflected in the sal.es of
the peasan.pry. Taking into account the fact that in recent years the
increase of the agricultural output has lagged behind the development
of the economy as a,whole, and consequently, the demand for africultural
, products has, on the whple, expeeded supply, the peasantry has fetched
relatively high price's for its products. In years with inferior crops,
as a result of relatively high free market prices, the peasants.found
almost full.comT)entation for the st'aller volume of products, and in
years with beteS crops, when demand was still greater than supply,
with prices not proportionally lower, the relatively bigger volume
of products ensured relatively favourable conditions as compared to
those of the workers and employees.
?
The'taSk of statistically comparing the living conditions of workers,
employees and pensante; raises an apparently dimple but really most
complex statistical problem viz, that of delimiting_these,peainegroups
as properly as possiblie:. Slice) delimitation did not represent any
special problem in olden days, because the agricultural and non-
agricultural population could be relatively easily separated. The
situation is different to-day when, due to the big and rapid growth
of our ,industry, arid construction, the agricultural producer
of the village of 'yesterday changes gradually into an industria?.
worker,. Between 1949 anc,Id 1956 the number ef,eMPloYees ,in industry and
,
bdildtle increase.d by over 500,.000 i?e? by about 65 per cents This
rise comes to' .a great extent ,from agriculture. The major part of
tlie new masses of workers, streaming from agriculture into industry
takes part at the time of the harvest and ether peaks in the work of
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ceuntry-family and drewe the main part oX hie food Oupply from the
village base. In view of this' multifariousnese of traneitory forms,
tt 1 difficult to delimit properly theee two layere from each other,
eepecially if we consider that not the earner themcolvee must be
rouped but the peaoant households have to be delimited acoording to
1.eir character, though some members of the 8=0 peasant households
!eave incomes as peasants, others as workers or employees.? Under such
eircumstances a perfect delimitation is, of course, impossible. In
erinciple this delimitation takes placo on ground of the dominating
eaxt,of income in ease of incomes from several sources. It is based
on the consideration that soonor or later it will determine the corresp-
ending character of the living conditions, of the way of living. A
elest careful statistical survey and thorough computations are ru.
quirod.to obtain an approximation as to how the part resulting from
ngricultural production and that from wages resp. salaries develops.
2hci cemputabions mentioned 11.thortt make possible the analysis of
:the development in acOordanot with the main intentions of the plan.
These computations show, emong others
j)euhe'real joint effect of the planned wage and price policy,
He influence of changes in employment on household incomes, in cennec-
tion with the relative plans,
tlie effect of the fulfilment of plans relating to the development of
agricultural cooperatives on basis of the detailed analysis of the
incomes of peasants'working in cooperatives or individually,
and, ccmparing the incomes of workers and peasants, the actual share
of these. most essential strata of the pepulatian in the national income.
)Thongh the said methods serve a far-reaching analysis fef plan-fulfil-
- ment, thwy do 'not exhaust the task; the examination of Gther fields
also required. '
:jtatiP.:10.a1eto.P:t4lEeSif.the T921ftlatiqn? outlan_la_maliarInE_Lan=
Nelfilment. examination of the livirkg, conditions of some_miapolillal
of the whole population.
If 1:1G. wish to examine the living conditions. of the population, 1,1 is
sobvipu6'that though it is of decisive,impJrtance, we cannot be satire,.
fled with -the.statistical analysis of 2nix.1.12.2?Lagomes of the vaelous
Classes, layers, .groups. . In complementation of it, it :ts-absol ,ly
imporatim:e.to analyse 'statistically aLso ,tht.1-lieation of thA6,40omes,
the Movement of expenditures?the pattern of consumption To this end
We partly study care-fully trade and the catering industry, its division
.16,-.1,6.41/40inry;o44,4 ? 1.'1.
,t
.1,1,0741pra47.
1+,
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9
?
among the various forms of tradu /Statel-cooperative, private, products
directly marketed by village producers, etc./. On the other hands we
endeavour to obtain information also from the population iteelf in this
impertant question. At present, 1700 town workers and 2800 country
workers /collective and individual farmers/ render household statist-
ical data .which give us partly valuable information an to the aptual
composition of in6ome, on.the other hand about the chanes in oft-
sump,tion. Thus e.g. data are obtained about the aggregate incomes
of families of various types, /the pr capita income within the family
is of the most determinative importance/, further about th otors
underlying this income per head /size of family, proportion between
earning members and dependants, the average earnings in case of'differ-
ont numbers of earners, etc./. Apart from the composition of income,
we gain ample data of the way of using the incomes. Such data make
possible the comparison between the living conditions of workers and
employees and of the peasantry, as well as the comparative analirsAs
of the various layers, thb.establishment'of the structure of con-
sumption, and how !t is interconnected with incomes. These data show
also the material and cultural level of the various strata, their
alimentation, clothing etc. Such relatively abundant data give
rich material fer' testing the living conditions of the population
partly to judge the main tasks not in the plan, partly to make further,
plans.
Th9 vaiitus computations of real wages, real income as well as ,the
tests of household statistics are to give general features of the
members ,of different classes, layers, groups, but in themselves do
not throw light on changes in the living conditions of the popula-
tion as a.whole. It is therefore that we examine changes exercissing
an influence on the popUlation as a whole, too. E.g. as referred
to above, many workers were peasants some years ago. At the same
time the consumption level of the peasants, even though to a lesser
extent than beforel'is,still lagging buhind that of the workers. Con-
sidering, that the real income indices both of peasants and of workers,
reflect the changes only within any one group, it is clear that
stepping over from the group of petIsants into the circle of worker's
means such a sudden rise which does not find due expression either
in the real income index of one or of the other strata.
In recent yearsrour zociety has been featured by great changes, thus,
a peasant becoming a worker is but one instance of changing over "from
one circle into another". Similarly powerful migtations have' taken
,place also within the peasantry and within the circles of workbrs and
empIudes.
Masses-6f unskilled.workere tave.become trained and skilled workers;
the ever:increasing number of inferior technical cadres has been ?
mainly drawn from among the skilled-workers and from the:best:Workers
and?emploYees'there became Denumber of first class, experts .leadlefig (
economic and cultural life. At the same time, entrepreneurs and the
like, who uses to live on a higher level of consumption, have become
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workers. The chanae "frem one oirole into another" . a grandione change
in the structure of profeseione - partly illuotrates and explains the
ohne in' the average conditions of the main proupo of the population,
partly makes poesible the completion of valuing the Main Averagest in
feet a better valuation.
The former computations make it primarily possible that beside- measur7
ing theefulfilment of the plans of distribution, their impact on every-
day life-of the population can also .be measured. The olordination add
iMplementation of the plans relating to the shaping df incomes' and .
their use are, made possible by. ,these figures. , Summing up, those cal-,
oulations show the joint!eiTect of carrying out the various intentions
cohourning the living conditions of the different strata.
/3/ Analysis of certain Question6 Of timely interest for judging the
implementation of the Plan.
The analyses hitherto mentioned are sp to say always valid. In addi-4
tion, the ooncrete circumstances prevailingsdetermine,when and in which
Tields further tests for the meritory valuktion of plan-fulfilment are
required. Let some examples be quoted:
Foreign trade plays an important part in the life of our country and
thus in the development of the living standard of the populati,in. /
Imports and exports account for about 20 per cent. each in the National
Income. Foreign trade having developed, in recent years in a manner
considerably different from our plans, and, at the, same time, the
standard of living 5of t,he population not having developed by the
it was found neces,sary :to submit foreign trade to a statistical ana-
lysis paying due regard to its broader connections. Against 4sUoh
background we have partly been dealing with the interconnection be-
tween production and foreign trade plans, partly with. ,the actual re-
lations between our foreign tradfi and production. We have further
dealt with the 'interconnection of our industrialisation, agricultural
production and ,our ,trade. We have statistically proved the connection
between the production ,of the natiOnal income as well as its use for
consumption and accumulation and the development of the balance of
foreign trade. ,The purpose of these computations was to render account,
in what form the fulfilment of various plans referring ,to different
fields is realised, how it influences the othei connected fields, how
it ultimat6ly affects the consumption of the .population.
In consequence of the events of Autumn 1956, the problem of' the equi-
librium between goods available and purchasing power gained special
iMpetus., To make the importence,bf the problem evident, it will do.,.
well to refer to the fact that according to preliminary estimates, the
(
national income in 1957 per capita will bo Tte 10 per cent. lower
than in 1955.,16A,1:the-eamd time the consumption of the ,population' per
,
,
,r.rrrtr4X3WAI
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head will exceed, on account of the readjustment of wages and prices
and of tfil., change in the marketing conditions of the peasantry, that
9f b" 15 per cent. /As well-known, a number of countries, first
of all the SOTZT'Union have contributed-a great deal to the solution
of the problem arising herefrom in the form of substantial aid and
loans. It stands, of course, to reason that it is only a contribution
to the solution of the problem but ?armlet be regarded as the solution
its(.1f./
In order to throw light upon the problem, we tried to sum up the,
situation at the beginning of this year on basis of the developMOnt
of not circulation, of the velocity of oirculhtion of money, the
stocks, the volume of consumer goods coming from home production and
foreign credits or aid. We also forecast the incomes and expenditures
of the population duly considering the purchasing and taxation forecasts
and the wage rises decided upon. This work had also boon based on
National Income computations in view of ,the fact that it represents
the upper limit for covering all requirements from inland resources.
Figures showed that in 1957 the national income willciver the con-
supption requirements and it even permits investments if a more
medest,nature than hithertJ.
Calculations ,,have also proved ha..w..,much_jbigger a ?volume._ of, 99,as.
e,.....Pr.bqyidedj,orths lAst,? year 9..quA3,4)?yium
how much of it must be covered partly from
an, increased quantity Of consumer goods produced 'within our total
output and partly through foreign trade.
Thi s .computation.served, exceptionally, less theApurpose' if, acoountr
ing for plan-fulfilment than to offer a ground for.adequate plansi
measures.
40
The aforementioned examples sAould give an approximate picture as t40
how the work 9f thu Hungarian Statistical Office supports the measur-
ing if plans and that cf planning itself. It is evid:9nt that a.
number of cases when the Statistical Office does not muasure the
prescribed tasks but values the realisatiin if the main tasks k
planning, it.has ften to interpret'the plan itself. Thus e.g. the
interpretation of how far the readjustment of wages performed in
Summer 1956, when workers in low wage-categories got a rise - is
open to interpretation from the point of view of the main objectives
of the Plan. This readjustment, while raising the standard of living
in a very justified field at a rate of more than average, is
diminishing at the same time the relatively small differences be-
tween the earnings of lowly and highly qualified workers, which did
not exercise a beneficial effect on wages proportionate with output, .
with the quality of work, on the reproduction if qualified workers and
through all this, on developing production and on raising the standard
UPI
of livina of the whole community.
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The,above,statistical work seryee simultaneously the measuring of
the actual plan-fulfilment an further planning. The statistical ,
data and Valuatiens offer a vat' arraY of knowle4ge for planning
and for Government meaeures.
4
fro N. 1-si 00
Although our work has seen a significant:deVelopment in the course()
of recent 'years, in my opinion wo are ,far from being satisfied. As
far as, the ,statistical data themselves aro concerned:
the relatively wide scope of the uniform otatistical accounting
systeniensured by the State Laws, its more or less uniform character
and its roughly acceptable suyport of documentation yields us great.
benefit
At the same timji, the steady development of our work has led us by
now to realize also the limitations of thie'system. Under the
statistical system, the bulk of the data roaches the Statistical
Office though the lower /local/ statistic bodies or the operative
directive 'bodies in pyramid-like form /the higher the level, the more .
cummarized the result/1 finaliy summed 'up by Ministries or: Administra-
tive Units. Thus the Statistical Office, except its direct collection
which represents a considorably1 smaller pa:* of all data available,
does not possess individual data. This fact greatly hampers the use
of one of thii most particular methods of Statistics, i.e., that by sum-
marizing the statistical multitude in diffurent groupings different
processes cat be analysed.
Our work is also llmited by the. fac.t that, ,partly as a result of our
planning and controlling work practised hitherto, we are inclined to,
follow up every process in its complexity. Consequently our accounts
ardi almost fun-scope and thus inVolve great Material? efforts and,
from the point of view of them who are rendering .the data, they re-
present a disproportionate., builden. If, however)) in justified cases
we content ourselves with,ch4racterising processes without aiming at
the preddse value of sUchoprildessds, we could observe some 'problems
in a more .detailed manner, quicker and at smaller expenses. ' On ground
of this perception, we now are endeavouring to develop our 'work.
While rdtaining the global and wide possibilities secured by the sys-
tem of state accounting, at the same time we wish td apply more fre-
quently than hitherto the methods of single or rarely effected de-
tailed collections within a narrow field.
0
could offer a scope for constant improvement but aleo their ueeq At
pre3ent, in our analynee and informatory work the possibilities
off,)red by the accounting system are often only partly exploited.
Though it may often be due to financial reasons, it is obvious that,
taking economy as a whole, the not full utilization of data oollected
with great material sacrifices cannot be deemed econOmioal.
We are facing a number of difficulties not only as far as the right
valuation of the main intentions of the plan, but also when establish-
ing the numerical targets. The method of planning, as referte4 to
in my introductory remarks, is changing. Accordingly the notions,
groupings, detailudness used in the plan change to a certain extent..
Since statistics do not tolerate frequent changes, the tasks of
steadily representing development and measuring plan-fulfilment
often conflict. The frequent alteration of plans also aggravates the
numerical measuring of plan-fulfilment.
Summing up, we think to be approaching the core of our task. For
statisticians the main problem of measuring plan-fulfilment both in
oue- country and in all other is that beside informing about the
numbers of plan-fulfilment,they should value plan-fulfilment, analyse
it:: effect also in connection with some part-fields, primarily how-
evr the effect of plan-fulfilment Of the main connections of
economic and social life.
00
Of course, it is not Only the field of statistical data 'themselves that
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!,1....$ i . a .....113" , i. ','_ 4 1....fL) ,,..4 ....4
., w,),.., ,e,?,, ,4 t,r44, ' : -)C1)M\ 11, kkeq: -? . ..:.; 1._,/ 1.4.1
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011,4: ,,.. ?t?t: till, 'Pi ' sa), .r...,00..t),, c4. etp,i)0
ill l'ilr.-, '11.1 ,:-I; ciI-1 -ico It ,:. o-i siut `,.)1-1',,I.i,P4
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0 ft rt) 0. Pk' pr'o ri?
0 aro porsons of 14
.y.:a.:s Of aqe and ye.,.no:rsr. This ritlin generation is gradually maturing
ICI prOvide new r000nstruction of th,Jir country.
B) Methodv of the 1953 Census
rr'edo !
0 ? ,uvo
.The census of 1953 :adopted a per-
son's: ut3ual abodo or hi r4 borne as the basis of enumeration, thus do.,
do juro popnlation. When a person lowco hin home temporar-
iv,and :Jravelc .either on official dutios or for businuss, IV) is still
waTlwrated w "C.u. homo address" When ho lewes his.sual abode for
1.31!:novra parpooes, and absent from horn,s not more than 6 months,, .he
onumutc.d rA 11:1.s home. When hu .join3 a government organ, is
en74std, in no .t.tmy, onterr a factory or .a school, he ordinarily has.
j 11W ..abode) rjid.vi.o Too i.aumt;ratel. .thee. In .oraor to .dimini6h errors
omirlsien, he is .onumerat,Jd at r.ot mp:!;'e than ono abode.
)1.11'n ropulio% Tn-eminently ayriculfural and perhaps ?more
06,6,4, Of inhabtants residing in rural areas, the population
J.,si admittedly &lo and Its movement slight, so the de jure basis re-
bhh brue ,ilturc of ho.' population,
P) Tho How: The census hour is fixed ab the 24th hour
v), 1SW. rYe::1 6')rrvoponels to the 20th day, the 5th moon, of
i1e3nako 1,7c.;r ,rw calendar. Tho date is m. the mldst of the
p;.anting season in nic.ccu:Itijre. It is chosen to expedite the co1loc-
iou populaion (:.L.ta for the electioll of the peoples represnnta-
ivc18 7..oc,7?1 :?eoplo's Congrosues which is drawing near. June 30
C! the estimation of the midyear popu1ation4
the P.optAa.t:;:or .f: ict is enumerated some days before *June 30,
births, p(47non1 ontering-the:dintrict Of marria30 or .4 immigration are
0,aac,ia to the 1-Jtall ana deaths, 1.1.w5on:1 leaving the diptriot by marriage
or by emigration are ?subtheted from thi tott1 Likowiool, if the:enumua?a.
tion of a distrint taktin place aftw,7 Juno Y), bithc, persona enterine
T41-1c3 0,intviot by marriage or by immigration are not onvmeratod; and
deaths, perwono 1Qaving tho district by ma,vriaue or by emicration are
3)
Prv*a:ratory 'hork beforo (onou:)-talting
a) TJ Q Taining o:C no7A stnfr and Statistical Comyaterst..
Accrain,7', to the Centrnl Elontion Committeo, tho training of the
:ield wovItern and FAatilt:i,cim: shou7,d be'entrurAod to thu provinces
to suit no local noodn. Varour typoo of worker are needed including
slApervinx,s, enumerators, recovders, and statimtical semputers. The
training.collrno Cor general upervision roquires throe days and that
for ()numeration, election and ntatistica:, complAstion requires seven
days. Data fur itoltruction ih thc training oourse aro included in the
material Mr 't)ublicity an oulined in the 'Thllowino. section. The whoe
workinc fo:70c tho entim oountvy oe;?rines more than 2.5 million
persons ineluding enumoctJ6or, recorders, 6tatistica1
compute, but without cpuntinp; the "otivl,stz" who ce:'?ve voluntarily
and whc) aro Thirly n&torou n a1.com:nnuitios.
? b) Pub],: it; Opir T loL41. par:ty organization undertahes
the general supervir!ion of c;onsus-aking and election as a phase 'of
political activity and utarto by olTantzing publicty campaigns.
U;,lor,tho direction o2 the pat7;Leac'n cloct,ion precinct organiz.ea an
election nommItteo which ocnducts publiCity camp'aigns. In the village
or in eoreet of a city, the wol.k lc; ont::Loted tp the publicit'y,
cquad. In 1,10 facto,, rain, or constiuctionamp, publicity ic
under iiC dirction of thr local riarty uni.6. Data fo:L. publicity include
pnrt7 policy and .pvernment regulations on the 'envmeistion and re-
criati.cn of' population and oloon) st:ch 'as the Election Law, Re-
gulations ,thr) Enumoration ana-Roe;istrabion of Population', and In-
c:Aru,..Itiens Tot. tho Populat'ion' Questionnaire. Publicity'
work unila17 ar,J "acti,stu". of t'n'o-').oeality who .make use of .the
loisur6 hours in the 'facto'IT on t:ho *ram by naking calls, holding...
uonvorns, inforal talks, diuctssion groups and meetings. In the
oit'ios'l the dioplay of cioan &nd placar(M., the distribution ,of .
pamph1et!1,' and the tl:e of the moion pictu:n ihow are added features.
4) 1":_le Procedure of Consus-takir(i:
?a)Ixf5erimental Work, Experimenta work was first initiated in
Fc Chon2; Hie, Linotn 2vc/wi.noo, and Li Chcnc Hien, Shangtung
ProvineJ, The former ox:perimont whichwao Started in May 1953 stressed
the training of local ttA.ents for filling-out the population questionnaire
and.otheruchniGal work n connection with the census by. selecting
person from every 500 persons in the ocal: Topulation. In June, t the
Li Cheng enerment demonstrated thectical application- of 'the
priilo ccnouJ-1king aivJ elcotLon proceed hand inliand'With ?
farming in?he locality, As a rerun OP iiot.lar discUsSien and:With the
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approval of the looal farmera, an irrigation ditch waa dug whioh proved
to be the moat urgent welearo =mare of thu whole community. This was
in sharp oontraat with a aimilar project in 1952 which waa propoeed by
the local bureaucracy but without the peoplea ?ancient and was doomed
to failure.
b) Direct Enumerationes Report at the Registration Depots
In accordance with the direetiona of the Central People's Government,
the chief method of tho enumeration and regiatration of population
consists of the report by thu family heads (Form A) at the local re-
gistration depot. At each election precinct there is a depot to which
each family head goes to report the persons in his family with thu
particulars of eaoh person specified in the population questionnaire.
With regard to public households (Form B), such as government organs,
factories, schools and minuet depots nre also established to which
individuals go to report. The individuals are organized into groups
under the leadership of the appropriate departrxint chiefs. Boatmen and
workers ofswater transport who work and live on the boats or waterways
report and, register at appropriate depots on the boats or ashore.
A sped4a1 agent visits persons who for various reasons can not go to
the. registration depots and report themeolves, such as old people,
patients, persons on leave, those who can not leave their posts when
on duty (police men at the government offices or factories), and per-
sons who live in the out-of-way regions too far away from the registra-
tion depots.
Out of a total of '601,938,035 persons as returned from the census of
1953, fully 574,205,095 persons were through direct enumeration as
briefly discussed above.
. a) ,Indirect Calculations and Estimates The Regulations on the
Enumer.ationand Registration of Population provides (Art. 17) that
th outlyi.ng regions and in places where the minority peoples live,
modifications may be necessary if local conditions require. In these
areas, the enumeration and registration of population may, at the
discretion of the local government, adopt indirect measures such as
through ,the 'consultation. of the headmen, or through the meetings of
old, men, women and the general public. By and large, in these places
there is no direct election of the people's representatives, hence
'there is ne direct enumeration and registration of population. ,
Indirect calculations and estimates are also applied'in the following
oases: the .overseas Chinese, Chinese persons in diplomatic and con-
sular services abroad, Chinese students in foreign countries, and the
population of Taiwan province.
Out of the total of 601,938,035 persons from the ctmsus of 1953, no
less than 270732,095 persons were through indirect means such as cal-
ulations and estimates. These include the overseas Chinese and
Irises students abroad (11,743 320 persons), the residents in the
Declassified in Part
outlying areas including tho minority peoples (80397,477 persons
Taiwan province (7,591,298 persons) which is not yet liberated.
and
C) Th Q Principal Items of tho Census
1) Sex Ratio Up to the year of the liberation in 1949, the pre-
ponderance of males over females in Chinese population was well-known.
During the Kuomintang reactionary period, unusually high sex. ratios.
were frequently a:oportea: these woro chiefly soon in the population
estimates of questionable reliability. Towards the-closing days Of .
the Kuomintang regime, experimental censuses of liNited areas were taken
from time to timo by using modern techniques of fairly high dependability.
The sex ratios in these hsien censuses are shown in Table 1, in which
the highest sex ratio le 129,4 an in Chang Lu of Fukien province,
.In Table 2, the sex mtie of the population of new China is compared
with that of 15 other nations. row China is reported to have the
highest sox ratio, i.e. 107.7, and Democratic Republic of Germany has
the lowest, i.o. 74.3 The figure for new China is considerably lower
than other figures in the hsion censuses as given in Table 1. Several
factors may be mentioned: Pirut, obnoxious social habits such as
infanticide and the discrimination against female children by the
parents resulting in excessive mortality among young female children
are fast disappearing especially since the establishment of the People's
Republic in 1949. Secondly, the omissions of children and especially
female children which were common in the Haien censuses were minimized
in.the national census of 1953. Though in auw China, the sex ratio ,
for all ages is still high (107.7) as compared with 15 other nations
(liable 2), it is much lower than a number of the hoien censuses in old
China (Table 1), especially Chang Lu (129.4) in Fukien, Lan Hsi (125.3)
in Chekiang, Chu Yung (116.6) and Kiang Ying (112.1) in Kiangsu.
In Table 2, India (105.6) and Canada (102.5) have relatively high sex
ratios, In Australia (100.4) Brazil (99.3), Sweden (99.3), Nether-
lands (99.3) and the United States (98.7) the ratios for all ages are
about even between the sexes. Unlike those nations, England and Wales
(92.6) and France (92.2) have shown lower sex ratios. Two extreme cases
are noted: in Federal Republic of Germany (88.8) and Democratic Re-
public of Germany (74.3) the unusually low sex ratios are in a large
measure due to the evil effects of the second World War, which in each
area killed off an immense number of the males in the prime of their
lives.
2) Age Composition In Old China, the age composition of the 8
hsien censuses is shown in Table 3. Infants of the zeroage group all
occupy a relatively high percentage in the total population, as 4.94%
in the Kunming Lake Region, Yunnan. During the period of China's re-
sistance war against Japan, the Kunming Lake Region attracted a large
number of the middle-aged immigrants with their families from other
.provinces. Besides, the Region included the urban population of a
fairly large city. These factors were responsible for the unusually
high birth rate of the Region.
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6
{-,1 1.9? ()ensue of new China, the infents of the seroegge group oon-
'A.tvi,teJ 34 of the total population (Table 4). This ie considerably
%ower tIvan tbo figur..N for the Kunming. Lake Region as shown in Table 3.
IL Table 41 it lo shown that Brazil (3,7) China (3.3) and India(.2%)
1,1-ie rather eimilar percentages for the zero-age groups those countriee
el have high birth rate. In the name table, other natione which,havo
e,lightly lower swrcentageo of the zero-age group are Yugoslavia (2.0)
Reypt (2,71/0), Thee? two eountriee also have relatively high birth
roles. A gliou4, of oountries have percentagee of the zero-age. group
.11 ovor 20()? but their birth rat,oP are not high, such as Au8tra-
'4a (24) the United 2tates (24), Czechoolovakia (2.14M and Japan
ahu age composition for all ago group e in Sweden and England
(1 Walee in etrilangly similar: both natione have low birth rates,
;lave normal miadle-age oup, and, have relatively large number of the,
people. In France, Australia and the 'United States, the popula-
tions are gradually ageing, as in these oountries the people of 65
;rears of ago and over now constitute 12.1%, 8.6% and 8.50 respectively.
the other hanO, nina's population ie rather yOung, for. according
Sundbaerg'o ago divisione she belongs to the Stationary-Progressive
,pe as in China the 0-14 year of age group ;Lilly occupies 36.0% of
the total population. These young people are soon maturing to shoulder
'1.1c) heavy responcibilities of developing industry, commerce, cOmmunica-
,one and agriture, which China urgently needs in her expanding
7oaram of eocialiot :reconstruction. ' By contrast, in certain other
edun.tries, the 0-14 year of age group occupy quite low percentages in
t!heir populations, such as Federal Republic of Germany (224), England
and 'ilales (22.5%), '2rance (23.3%), Swedan (23.7%), and Czechoslovakia:
(24.6%)
3) . Now China's constitution stiputes (Art. 3) that
in,her population are equal, and that there shall be
nn disnrimination or oppression of any, nationality, against any other.
Othor si3.nific4nt provisionsistate.that it the regions where the minor-
'y poplc live, there a1l be autonomous areas of various levels and
lstablish self-governing machinbry tu suit local needs. In these areas
iIOr the eon(14_tions aro appropriate, the.re shall be people's congresses.
por5o.,1 oZ 10 yr:6,re of age may decide hit, natiotality: and with re-
Rard to a minor, the qu'estion may be decided by his parents.
in flow China, 'as fkle nationalities are now equal, the minority peoples
1.r. a nambo2, QC vogions 2retny report themselves as members of thp
ninority peoples, such as the Chang in Lung Lit, Kwangsi; the Yi in
W,Ln Nu, 1.:o:1,.ohow; or the Wigur in Ah To Shi, Sinkiang. Before the
libeliation under the oppression of the Han nationality, certain members
of Vile minority peoplo did not din6lose ,their ethnic origins, but during
2Ylio cenous their Preuly report their true nationalities to the People
.?!espongible for consus--baking.
enumerating population, the.,dejure principle is followed ,throughout.
?
amrs the nomads, they arc registered at the last administrative. '
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release
?
NW
unit to whioh they belong.
In certain outlying regions there is no direot election of the people'e
repreeentativen by the voters, such an certain nationalities in Tibet,
Sikang and Sinkiang. Amona those nationalities, the total popdlation
is ascertained by the local government which summons the headmen of the
nationalities under its jurisdiction to make an estimate of their na-
tionals. This is the basis on which the number of the people's re-
presentatives to the national People's Congreee is apportioned. At the
conclusion of the 1953 census, the minority peoples sent 150 represents*
tivea to the national People's Congress in Peking. This roughly re-
presents one seventh of the total representatives in that body, but the
apportioned number is beliovea to be much,larger than the percentage
which the minority peoples actually occupy in the totalipopulation of
the' country.
According to the census of 1953, there were 35,320,360 persons belonging
to the minority peoplee, This represents 6.06% of the country's total
population. The great majority of the minority peoples live among the
Han nationality gald are enumerated and registered simultaneously with
the Han nationality. In addition, there are the inhabitants of the
outlying ares, and regions, where no direct election of the people's
representatives took place. These areas have 8,3971477 persons, of
whom a considerable number belongs to the minority peoples.
?
The census of 1953 enumerated over 40 nationalities for the whole
country,' of, the IHan nationality ,constituting 93.94% of the total.
Among the minority peoples. there were 10 nationalities, each numbering
over one ,million persons. They are, in numerical descending order,,
the Chang, the Wigur, the Mohammedan,, the Yi, 'the Tibetan, the Miao,
the Manohu, the Mongolian, the Puyi, ad the Chosen.
T) An Appraisal of the 1953 Census
a
, 4 ,
It should be admitted'that the results of the 1953'census are quite::
trustworthy. This 16, in the writer's opinion-, due' to .01e application
of themedern scientific technique and peoples eagerness for the
undertalxing.' 'The combination ,of these two factors expldins;.in,large
measure, the success Of the 1953 census.. The chief reasono may be.
briefly.diseussed as Sqllows:
1) Because the purposes of the ceAsuo are for the welfare of the
people, so the people heartily support the undertaking and happily'
participate in it. .Since the liberation, the position of the people
has undergone fundamental changes--rising As it does from servitude
to mastership--and they realistically feel that the country now belongs
to them. They clearly understand that the census prepares fbr the
subsequent elections, and that by exercising the democratic rights
through'ballotting, they could bring about socialist reconstruction
in economic and cultural aspects. This is radically different from
the historical past when the reactionary ruling class for the purpose
of'imposinc taxes, enlisting soldiers, or enforoing the Pao Chia
system, collected population data to exploit the people. Under these'
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6
{-,1 1.9? ()ensue of new China, the infents of the seroegge group oon-
'A.tvi,teJ 34 of the total population (Table 4). This ie considerably
%ower tIvan tbo figur..N for the Kunming. Lake Region as shown in Table 3.
IL Table 41 it lo shown that Brazil (3,7) China (3.3) and India(.2%)
1,1-ie rather eimilar percentages for the zero-age groups those countriee
el have high birth rate. In the name table, other natione which,havo
e,lightly lower swrcentageo of the zero-age group are Yugoslavia (2.0)
Reypt (2,71/0), Thee? two eountriee also have relatively high birth
roles. A gliou4, of oountries have percentagee of the zero-age. group
.11 ovor 20()? but their birth rat,oP are not high, such as Au8tra-
'4a (24) the United 2tates (24), Czechoolovakia (2.14M and Japan
ahu age composition for all ago group e in Sweden and England
(1 Walee in etrilangly similar: both natione have low birth rates,
;lave normal miadle-age oup, and, have relatively large number of the,
people. In France, Australia and the 'United States, the popula-
tions are gradually ageing, as in these oountries the people of 65
;rears of ago and over now constitute 12.1%, 8.6% and 8.50 respectively.
the other hanO, nina's population ie rather yOung, for. according
Sundbaerg'o ago divisione she belongs to the Stationary-Progressive
,pe as in China the 0-14 year of age group ;Lilly occupies 36.0% of
the total population. These young people are soon maturing to shoulder
'1.1c) heavy responcibilities of developing industry, commerce, cOmmunica-
,one and agriture, which China urgently needs in her expanding
7oaram of eocialiot :reconstruction. ' By contrast, in certain other
edun.tries, the 0-14 year of age group occupy quite low percentages in
t!heir populations, such as Federal Republic of Germany (224), England
and 'ilales (22.5%), '2rance (23.3%), Swedan (23.7%), and Czechoslovakia:
(24.6%)
3) . Now China's constitution stiputes (Art. 3) that
in,her population are equal, and that there shall be
nn disnrimination or oppression of any, nationality, against any other.
Othor si3.nific4nt provisionsistate.that it the regions where the minor-
'y poplc live, there a1l be autonomous areas of various levels and
lstablish self-governing machinbry tu suit local needs. In these areas
iIOr the eon(14_tions aro appropriate, the.re shall be people's congresses.
por5o.,1 oZ 10 yr:6,re of age may decide hit, natiotality: and with re-
Rard to a minor, the qu'estion may be decided by his parents.
in flow China, 'as fkle nationalities are now equal, the minority peoples
1.r. a nambo2, QC vogions 2retny report themselves as members of thp
ninority peoples, such as the Chang in Lung Lit, Kwangsi; the Yi in
W,Ln Nu, 1.:o:1,.ohow; or the Wigur in Ah To Shi, Sinkiang. Before the
libeliation under the oppression of the Han nationality, certain members
of Vile minority peoplo did not din6lose ,their ethnic origins, but during
2Ylio cenous their Preuly report their true nationalities to the People
.?!espongible for consus--baking.
enumerating population, the.,dejure principle is followed ,throughout.
?
amrs the nomads, they arc registered at the last administrative. '
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unit to whioh they belong.
In certain outlying regions there is no direot election of the people'e
repreeentativen by the voters, such an certain nationalities in Tibet,
Sikang and Sinkiang. Amona those nationalities, the total popdlation
is ascertained by the local government which summons the headmen of the
nationalities under its jurisdiction to make an estimate of their na-
tionals. This is the basis on which the number of the people's re-
presentatives to the national People's Congreee is apportioned. At the
conclusion of the 1953 census, the minority peoples sent 150 represents*
tivea to the national People's Congress in Peking. This roughly re-
presents one seventh of the total representatives in that body, but the
apportioned number is beliovea to be much,larger than the percentage
which the minority peoples actually occupy in the totalipopulation of
the' country.
According to the census of 1953, there were 35,320,360 persons belonging
to the minority peoplee, This represents 6.06% of the country's total
population. The great majority of the minority peoples live among the
Han nationality gald are enumerated and registered simultaneously with
the Han nationality. In addition, there are the inhabitants of the
outlying ares, and regions, where no direct election of the people's
representatives took place. These areas have 8,3971477 persons, of
whom a considerable number belongs to the minority peoples.
?
The census of 1953 enumerated over 40 nationalities for the whole
country,' of, the IHan nationality ,constituting 93.94% of the total.
Among the minority peoples. there were 10 nationalities, each numbering
over one ,million persons. They are, in numerical descending order,,
the Chang, the Wigur, the Mohammedan,, the Yi, 'the Tibetan, the Miao,
the Manohu, the Mongolian, the Puyi, ad the Chosen.
T) An Appraisal of the 1953 Census
a
, 4 ,
It should be admitted'that the results of the 1953'census are quite::
trustworthy. This 16, in the writer's opinion-, due' to .01e application
of themedern scientific technique and peoples eagerness for the
undertalxing.' 'The combination ,of these two factors expldins;.in,large
measure, the success Of the 1953 census.. The chief reasono may be.
briefly.diseussed as Sqllows:
1) Because the purposes of the ceAsuo are for the welfare of the
people, so the people heartily support the undertaking and happily'
participate in it. .Since the liberation, the position of the people
has undergone fundamental changes--rising As it does from servitude
to mastership--and they realistically feel that the country now belongs
to them. They clearly understand that the census prepares fbr the
subsequent elections, and that by exercising the democratic rights
through'ballotting, they could bring about socialist reconstruction
in economic and cultural aspects. This is radically different from
the historical past when the reactionary ruling class for the purpose
of'imposinc taxes, enlisting soldiers, or enforoing the Pao Chia
system, collected population data to exploit the people. Under these'
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all power belono t1D the people who exeroime thvir political power
through the local People's Congressee and the national PeOpleo Con-
grease in Peking. The election of the former, up to the hien level,
is directly by thooe who are 10 yeare of age and over and who are
qualified to vote. From the hellion and upwarao, the election of the
people'e repreeentatives to tho People's Congrean io by the People's
Congrese immediately below. The administrative units+ of direct elec-
.tion number 214,798 in the whole country.
The chief characteristics of the People's Democracy are the universal
exerciee of the voting privilege by the people and the democratic
Aistribution, of the repreeentatives among the social groups, as exempli-
fied in the People's Congress in PekinG pity. The election commenced
in December 1953 and completed in March 1954, in which th: voters in
the city wardc,constitv,00 fully 9f1.2:'Z of those who are registered and
qualified.to,yotof and in the suburbs the purcentaoe is only slightly
lower, i.e. 95.2t/).
In the city, the 7 wards elected a total of 1,200 representatives .
distributing among the followine social groups: laborers 32.0, street
residents (family members of laborers and employees, independent work-
men and pedlers) 204, employees in royernment offices and State enter-
prises 15.7$1 educationists and members of the medical profession 15.2%,
workers in private induatrie and businesses 9.0, workers of the co-
operative unions 3.0%, religious workers 1.67, engineers and technicians
1.4/0. these people's representatives, females constituted 26.7%,
and the representatives from the minority peoples occupied 10.0Y0.
Generally speaking, the election of the people's representatives is
on the basis of population. Thus, starting from the lowest administra-
tive unit which elects peoples ,representatives, the hsiang with vary-
ing populations may elect from 15 to 35 representatives, and the national
People'b. Congress, the highest unitt.has,1,.200 representatives. But
there are also limitations and adjUstments, such as the. maximum number
Is of representatives which a hsiang may elect to a hsien s 3. Also.;
the population Of Ilinghsia province is just over 900,000, but is en-
titled to elect 5 representatives to the national People"s,Congress.
In the rural communities, every 800,000 persons may elect a representa-
tive, but in the cities where laborers usually concentrate, a popula-
tion of 100,000 is sufficient to elect a representative to the national
Pepple's Congress.'
2) The Census and National Reconstruction
a) Socialist Industrialization, Employment, and Workers' Plane of
Living Since 1953, China has begun economic reconstruction on a fairly
large scale. This necessitates a big amount of capital investment
and a large number of workmen, The census furnishes reliable data on
the. labor force, and also on production and on consumption.
New China has ever been confronted with considerable unemployment which
was handed over: from the old regime. On the other hand, a considerable
n1,1:jo 01; 1/;?;Tlw vuaohin6' thc? wQrkin .(-1g. .Q40 Year must find employment,
+uconolin.t,hom to 'bosom membera of the economidally aotive popular,
tion,
%Tridloymtivi oxtondine as 'Ow procram sooialiot
iationc%-pr,n4o. At the ena of 1949, n'oout 0 million laborere and employ-
eee,wem employed in our national economy. In 19561 thoix number was
thureumed to movo than 24 millione: amon theve there were about 3
million ciapal:xtu and om.ern of th privatoJ-entorprscs who4 after
going throuu ?tho? procesaQs of social:!.EC.; tral)oformation, have joined .
tho kc:o outurp anl. Joint ontovprilo empLoyee, together' with
tho E;sate othployouo in s'ural Wit:1::.4 7 yeari) ?ww China has
succo:,ofully fourel omplvment fo.: 13 millton pormono, or about 1.8
porsoro 2ur ThiF) rnteof expan7tion is unprocodentod in
Chno Lho aiy of thr) waemployed persona
of th cAA iivs.':In3 up to thQ prooent fouaa,nuitabl,o omploycnt.
The tnuicn C nomI)loymen hu1:3 not only 'ogin gradually cased by
.nr1i a1. openine:p in .;11c1 ns ubovu r:.kutc,hcd but also by cret-
ir emp3oyment in the rural rogions, especially through
t1v3 eo.orivo mo7(;:iLt in t4grioultIre. From now o..6 for a comparative-
ly l'clacer increaoine opportuni.Ues for employment may be found
in rw:al Aricle 59 of the Draft Regulations on. Agricultural
Development for China (1955-67) stipulates .that aside from finding
emploori:. in the cities, the unemployed ,ore encouvaged to .go to the
subv.vbH fore:. n Ind h:1.11 coUntrioc; tl ::ind work in
agrioillblraLlutr(4 lands, fishing and othc!.ts si.lbsidiary occupations.
LLoo, thv L7e to bc engaged in technical, educational, cultural
crd aotivifio;1 in no fal%ing regiont
cAaii:Jion of emloyment together with Lhtl redt-ition of unemployment
arc .4.conrin:.() iuv th(D incrove in the plane of i?' :i among the
1,bort:)rr, ara c,:n.oyeec. Thus, the averAgJ nprual 'ages of the workmen
(..n';)::eMplol:erl have 11-.creased?from'446 yuan Chinese people's cUrrenCyl
in 1954 r.) '61C yan in 1956, or an increase .of.aboa ')7,a/0 in 4.Y004:00
107),1 of tonumption 104 ?.;ho wurkmen and .empIoyoes hao.
cnntinuomlly. Calcultd on ti:_ei) basis of the 1952
.11c):1-kors? and s-nployoes coyxumod alliounted to about 2.30.0.
przcn in 1936 nis amount waS increased .to 167.7
yuan in 19524. to 179.9 yuan in 195, and to 1998. yuan in. 1956. The
level of consumption in 1956 was thus 19.O5; higher than in 1952 and 54.0%
hicr in 1936t
b) Land.11ch:ormn and 0o-operatl.on in A(4ricultuxo In old China,
lend.owllerThi and lane tenure was unjustly held by a limited number
of lan1 arEtcoxatus. Though poor farmers and farm laborers constituted
over 90,0,11 pi tho total agricultural population, they occupied only.
2010-..-33C/0 of the land. On the other hand, land owners and rich
far=s, though plmqrically leis than 10.6ib, actually possessed no lepo
th,:vn 70.0--CC.Qd of the tota).Jand area,in,the country. Thus, the ,
til1:Dr8 of the. soil were either landless' orcil.ped insuffici3nt land
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wr,ich they reultivated. They tolled all their livee, but were generally
uriable to 'olrienip ()rough food and olothing to maintain a eatiotaotory
otendard of living;
%der the Ohinone'Oemmuniot Party, land reforme wore basically oarried
oet J.n c w.%ole ooulatry, which reeu:ted in the liquidation of the land-
eeminie.elaer, and ln the reedietribution of aand among tho oultivators.
In the countryuide) fundamental ehangee riffootinee thu oocial elapses
takten pce es depieted in Teb1e 5. Land reformo were earried out
in 21. provineee ai; varioue datee, but wuro completed towards the end? of
1253. Botwoen.that aato and the ?lose of 1954, poor farmers and farm
iteerere 0,eee'ivered frow. 57610 to 29.0/01 and middle olaes farmore increas-
frele 35,C o Ir the came period, the deorease of rich far-
mers wan insignificant a reduction from 3.6/) to 24 only. Again,
the '2'0:max. mcl lords were also hown in .the table, for althouelh they
were liquidaed bu trwy etill retained the etieema cf their ?lass, as
by ee).guation it eould rewlire 5 years for them to lope their class
;rletue
C71,the 1)asie tie land reZorms, the Chinese Communist Party and the
2e'ople's torerrelent have launched the co-operative movement among the
fte'aorc, whieh gained ?Treat momentum in 1955 and reached its climax in
1.956. In June, 1956, qmong 120 million farming families no less than
710 r;illioe *unileloo ;ioinee the co-operative movement constituting
el. 1-f!) of the totaleflerming,population They have thus become collective
Re.rmero, Thi c prevents them from differentiating into rich farmers on
the eno hand Ind poor farmers en the other, as in the old days. Poverty
ir, deeisi.rely diminishoi,
The level of ecneumption waa 72.8 yuan per farmer in 1952 which was
raeel to- 84,2 an 1,11 1956, :or ar increase of 15.7%.
lelforms espeeially the rural co-operative movement have great-
1..",stimula4eed acricultural production. From 1952 to 1956, a total of
02000 minion kilogram of food grains were produced, but between
:1932 are: 191 .ho porice.1 of agricultural wrosperiby in old China, only
6501000 million kilogemme of food grains were produced. In 1956, new
,Chia oelorirenc:d tho severest natural...calamities since the time of
eiberation, L.et 'who annual productrion of food grains amounted to 182,500
nillion kilogram, or 7,700 million kilograms larger than 1955. The,
of :Me ore-operative eysilem is thus beyond doubt.
"e';? %o peceie'; thed the product4.on of the food grains is increasing
at a ,facer rate than population Thus, between 1949 and 1956, popula-
Von lieeree'eed, on3e. 15.e/A whereas food grains increased 71.* However,
eeeenved erltu. ee eject! of _copulation, China has a relatively smaller
area of the deltivated land averaging about one fifth hectare of the
eutivae,d land rer farmer. The fcod grains available for annual con-
frimeLleon' is cradeany ivereaeing: from 270 kilograms per capita in
P-7!32 o 294 1;i:".oeeeaele per capieba ir. 1956 Compared with a number of
:eee!eet ehr C'eineso figure is still considered low.
4,;?
47144'P144.14
M. WPM " 4,1.4104 pi fro arer.o4.....,.$1 rrtwer...-ft,r,eca
?
0 Education and Health ? Ao oompaQt with the Kuomintang regime,
education and health measure have faster growth in new China. Between
1949 and 1956, about 32 million il1itor4top gained certain amount of
education, which roduoed illiteracy conaidilably (before the liberation,
illiteracy wao ,high ao 90.0% of the total.. population.)
In 1946, the record year under the old regime, there were 50 primary
school pupils per 1000 population who were ectually attending Po'hoolo;
but in 1952 this figure was raised to 07.4. Retween 1952 and 1955,
when China's population increase'd 6.95, th,r) pupils in the primary
schools increased 3.960.
In 1946, the students atteeding the eucondrery schools amounted to 4 per
1,000 population, but this number was increened to 5.5 per 1,000 popula-
tion, and it was further raised to 7.3 per 1,000 population in 1955.
In 1947, the students, in thu colleges and uneversities affieuntea to
3 per 10,000 population, but this was increased to 3.4 per 10,000 popula-
tion in,1952 end to 4.8 per 10,000 population in 1955.
With the increase of population there have been.eorresponding increases
of the physicians and hospctal beds. In 1954, there was one physician.
per 1,400 population, and one hospital bed per 2,900 population. In
1955, although more than 10 million persons have boon added to the
total as compared with 1954, but practically the same .ratios as above-
mentioned have been maintained.
Regarding the health protection for the people, noteworthy improvements
are also discernible. Small pox, cholera and plague have been basically
unger.control. The control is gradually extending to the other.
infectious and communicable diseases, such as:
i) Schistosomiasis: This was once prevalent in the rice fields
in 12 provinces, but is receiving increasing medical attention in recent
years. In 1956 alone, more than 400,000 patients were cured, and plans
are under way to extinguish the dreadful disease in 7 years.
?
ii) Malaria: 38 preventive stations have been established not
only to'cure malaria patients but also to prevent the spread of the'
disease.
iii) Kala-azar; From 1949 to 1956, a total of 600,000 kala-azar
patients. have returned to normal health, and the medical profession.
isconfidently looking to,the date Lor the total extinction of the
disease in 1960.
. iv) Tuberculosis: For the prevention of tuberculosis, all large
cities have opened hospitals and tanitoriume. In Peking, the tuber-
culosis hospital has 6,000 beds which is a sevenfold increase since
1949 resulting the great reduction of the specific death rate from
tuberculosis ,If the specific death rate from tuberculosis, for 1949
were taken at 100, that for 1956 was reduced to 28.
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F) The .Coneue and Demographic Reeearch
e..
.1) A Pre1iminavy12tudy of PoPulatton Ohanf!e in. Rural Areae(1952.1953)
1951 to 1954 the ro havebeen a number of pie surveys on popula-
tion change in diTferent parts of China. 'Aemeg these, 16 surveys of
fairly high aocuraoy have been hereunder reviewed, whioh reflected
Repeats of the demographic situation in 1952-1953, ate portrayed in
Table 6. .Theae local inveetigations covered a total of 1,310421 per.
eons in 16 hsien in. 7 provincqs., In some calees, the entire hsien is
covered which ?includes the hsion oent,er, the village town, the lesiang
and the village. In other casee, only portions of tile hsion.are in-
cluded. These surveys essentially deal with the rural populationo,
but not the city populations.
More .specifically, birth rates in these 16 hsien have exhibites rather:
largo variations. Lokiang in Szechuan ht e the higheet rate or 52.8,
and Lichuan in Shensi has the lowest rate or 26,1. In 7 hsien, the
birth rate is over 40.0. Regarding the death rate, Lokiang in Szechuan
has the highest rate or 24.0, and Lichuan in Shensi has the lowest
rate or 13.4. In 0 localities the death rate is over 20.0. Natural
increase of population also shows variations. Lokiang in Szechuan
has the highest natural increase or 28.8, and Lichuan in Shensi has
the aowest or 12,T. In 10 hsien, natural increase is over 20.0 per
1,000 population per year.
For 16 hsien the vital rates
arithmetic mean, computed as
21.0; and natural increase,
have been, on the basis of the weighted
follows: birth rate, 41.6; death rate,
20.6 per 1,000 population.
In comparison with the 16 hsien, some'rural regionswhiOh have richer
agricultural lands and better harvests should have higher birth rates,
other areas of poorer agriculture including the habitats of the minority
peoples should have lower birth rates.
H
Since the first yuar of the People's Republic 1949, ,death rates have
generally been declining. New China is laying greater and greater
stress on public health and personal hygiene, or the more effective
control of epidemic and endemic diseases, and on the substantial re-
ductionlof infants'and children's diseases (such as neo-natal tetanus
and measles).
As compared with the decade immediately before the time of liberation,
ner China's'birth rate is gradually increasing, her death rate ha e shown
marked decrease, resulting in a substantial natural increase of Popula-
tion every year. This situation roughly indicates the first phase,
of the "demographic revolution" in which the high birth rate is
accompanied by a relatively low death rate which results in a compara-
tively high natural increase of population.
China 0-day faces an appreciably different,situation than at the eid
of the Kuomintang reactionary .peried. At that time, the vital rate's
might be estimated as follows, birth rate, 361 death rate, 29; natural
increase 7 per 1,000 population. x) As oomWarsopi with the vital rates
of new China, old China's birth rate was lower, death rate wae higher,
and natural inoreaee coneiderably lower. New China's vital ?Wes indi.
oate a vigorous state of afhire purpeting to a growing popurai'ion help-
ful for socialist reconstruction of the nation.
2) The Movement of Population
a) The Shift of Viorkmen between Economic Enterprises and between
Economic Sectors China is now in a transitional period where socialist
enterprises are flourishing and oapitalist enterprises are undergoing
socialist transformation. The workmen in the former are showing
corresponding increase, whereas that in the latter are relatively de-
creasing as shown in Table 7. According to this table, the Socialist
State enterprises (national and local) are occupying increasing
importance in national economy, and their laborers and employees have
increased from 2.1 million in 1949 to 9,3 million 1955, or increasing
from 40.3 te 67.3%. For the same period, the socialist co.ovrative
enterprises and the joint onterpripee (between the State and private
individuals) are also demonstrating their economic importance. The
three categories of the economic enterprises as above-mentioned
illustrate varying degrees of industrialization, and their laborers and
employees are likewise showing different degrees of increase. Capitalist
enterprises are gradually losing their ground, and their laborers and
employees are obviously decreasing: from 2.9 millions in 1949 to 2.1
millions in 1955, or decreasing from 56.0% to 15.6% in the nation's
economy.
The development of our national economy is according to plans and pro-
portions. The application of the labor force must also proceed from
these principles. The government makes adequate arrangements for the
employment of workmen. Thus, the distribution of the working force
and its rate of increase in different sectors of the nation's economy
assume a new form as shown in Table 8. Industry is quickly expanding
and therefore needs a large number of workmen, who increase from 28.7%
in 1952 to 31.6 in 1955. The expansion of the Government offices and
people's organizations in recent years is much slower, and their
relative position in the national economy is decreasing from 15.3% in
1952 to 10.2% in 1955. The distribution of the labor force by planning
avoids the blind allocation of labor power in different sectors and also
stave off unemployment.
b) The Urban-Rural Movement of Population Urbanization and
the developm6nt of factors give rise to the cityward drift of population
from the hinterland villages to the cities. During the period of the
first Five-Year Plan, about 8 million persons have continuously moved
into the urban centers. Because in the cities, 'natural increase of
population is faster, urban population is in recent years growing more
rapidly than rural population. Thus, in Table 9 it is seen that in 1949
urban population only constituted 10.35%, and rural population occupied
fully 89.65% of the total population. But in 1956, urban population
increased to 13.84%, and rural population decreased to 86.16%.
x) Another estimate for an earlier period around 1930 was as follows:
birth rate, 38; death rate, 33; natural increase, 5 per 1,000
population, Ta Chen: Population in Modern China, p. 38.
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Though the .rate of induotrial growth io That, the-otandard ofinduetri-
aliSatien ia low,. oo induutry ia net yet able te draw any large number
0f,'werkmen every year. In 1953, more than 70.00 .of the labor force
feund employment in the rieral areao? During theme laot-two ye,
priority for employment ems given to the workera in the eitiea. How-
ever, henoeforward for a rather long period, the prinoipal opportunitien
for employment muat be Pound in the villageu. Thu, hereafter for quite
scme time, the relative pooition between the urban and rural popula-
tions may undergo only unimportant changeep
o). Internal Migration prom 1949 to 1955, the total migrante
within the country amounted to more than '20.000 ?crooner dietributing
among the following sources: 330,000 peroone are engaged in irrigaeion
and construction work; 149,000 peraone have emigrated from famine ,
areas and areas Of low soil fertility; 47000 city depOn,lonts from
Poking, Tientsin, Shenyang have emigratea to the villages for product-
ive work, Among these migrants more than 300,000 persone hive settled
within the province; over 200,000 pereons hare suttled outside the
boundaries of the province.
The waster lands that are imitable for cultivation are widely distrebuted
over all parts of China: such as Kwangtung andeKwangni in the South,
,Kansu and Sinkiang in the Northwest; and Liaonina and Yeiluneeiang in
the Northeast. Between 1953 and 1956, the waste lands reclaimed
totalled 4:3404000 hectares, chiefly by the State farms and State
pastures. In 1956, the reclamation work by the State farms and migrants
constituted more than half of all the waste lands reclaimed for the
whole period.
3).. 'Birth Control
In new .,China, marriage and family relationo are undoreeing significant
changes. Tha traditional joint family System es.broaking down, and
matrimonial relationships on the basis of the hew rarriage laW are in-
fluencing multitudes ,:of young mon and women, Facine this fundamental
Hi,ocialetransformation, the Chinese Cemmnneet Party and the People'a
G,ovserlemeht, have, inrecent years, been Considering -the adoption of
control as a new,poliey for marriage and family, relaeions.
In September 1956, Premier Chou En-la., in submittiree the Perty'e
proposal for the second Five-Year Plan, declared that "for the pro-
tebtdon of womenand? children, for the up-bringing and education of
the rese.ng generation, and for the hoelth and prosperity of the
nation, we :ate' in, favor of the appropriate regulation of'
,entrust the 'Ministry of Health with the task of working cut an
effective program of birth control with reference to publicity and
practical applications."
Publicity for birth control is being carried nn in all parte of China,
and is. especially suceessful in the cities of Shaneung, ,Kiangeu,
Fukien, Hopeieand Hunan, For the rural areas, ;publeoity 'work is just
begenning;:anden, some provinces, it is ,barely .staring from the ad-
,et
-17-
miniatrative center of the ien. 0
Plana for 1957 provide that contraceptive devieee and medicines be
aufficient for the two of 25 million marriOd couples. This supply con-
sists of: sheaths, 80.0%;, jelly, 10.00; suppositories, 54;diaphragme,
3,00; other, 2,00. The ealoo for the fist quarter of 1957 by the State
Medical and Pharmaceutical Company, Peking, include: sheaths, 4,310,00P1
diaphragms, 46000; jelly, 80,000 (tubes); suppositories', 569,504 '
(boxes).
In a recent study on birth control and related-topics, it is revealed
that under the proper direction and guidance of the Party and Government,
the birth control movement will in duo course of time gain in strength
and will eventually spread to different sections of the country. Birth
control will thus become the deturmining factor for the reduction of the
birth rate.
To slow down the rate of population growth effectively, the birth rate
would have to be reduced 50.0% from the present rate. Ostensibly, this
would mean a long-term process, and the reduction may take not less
than 10 years to complete, or til: the end of the ghird Five-Year Plan
in 1967. This tentative conolubion is reached after due consideration
of a number of factors including eho following: time-honored tradition
on family and marriage, medical and hospital equipment in urban and
rural areas, cultural and socio-e3onomic conditions of the common
people, conservatism of the peaeantsp'and means of communication in the
outlying regions.
The time interval of 10 yearn al:owed for the reduction of the birth
rate by 50.0% as above-stated is a considerably shorter period than what
many foreign countries have expeeienced in adopting birth control
successfully. Among other mattees there exists this significant
difference: in most foreign nations, the people themselves practise birth
control voluntarily; whereas in new China the Government on the basis
of the people's aspirations takes the initiative and is directing it.
Another social question closely :'elated' to the birth rate es the age at
marriage of the contracting parties. A passionate debate is now raging
as to the proper age at which a eoung man or young woman may marry'.' In
view of these circumstances, it is suggested that a national system
of vital registration be instituted forthwith for the registration of
'birth, death, marriage and migration with special emphasis on marriage
data for the ultimate determination of the proper age at marriage for
young men and women based on factual analyses.
To encourage young men and young women to defer their marriages, a
further suggestion is put forward that they avail themselves of the
increasing opportunities now offered for attending schools, toeremain
there as long as circumstances would permit, and to take up as far as
possible, special studies at the research institutes. Particularly,
the young girls are advised to educate themselves as much as their
families would'allowb In addition, theyoung men and especially young
ttiO
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Htrivg for 000nomic indopendenoes
'111,:i ultimate aim is, of (Aurae., to abandon the objectionable sosial
vnage of marrying ast young ages', and gradually raise the age at
mavriage for youneg men and women. When the young women defer their.
, m-t.rriageo, they woulil orfestiyely reduce fertility ail& thus decrease?
tho'birth Irate.
4) The Nuud of now Population Estimates for old China
,Ohiefl,y duo to the lack of census data*and vital statistics, old
cHnau tutal population, it geographical distribution ana its rate
of 'growth have seldom boon scientifically analyzed. The 1953 census
makes it poi:Bible tm start researches on the critical re-evaluation
the demographic situation during the last 50 years by paying
special attention to the following periods: a) 1909-1911: with
some roports on pppulatien statistics issued by the Minchengpu;
b).191271927 with Povulation statistics records published by the
Ministry of the Interior, Peking, c) 1928-3:9481 with ,reports on
populatien statistics by the Ministry of the Interior Auring the
KuomIntang re'gime; and d) the population, statistical data compiled
the. Ministry Of the Interior, the People's Government, for the
period of economic recovery.- It is hoped that in the near future,
now estimate on population for the period of China's resistanCe
var against Japan mAy be published.
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Governnent, -July2 1937)
lapulation Statistics and .nalysis of Lan Hsi Experimental Esien (Hanrchow:
Governaent, September, 1936).
PrEliminaryReport of Population Census
Tsinz Hua University, ...up:ust,
Census of Selected Hsien in Szechwan
Statistics, Chinese National Government, 1943).-
(10 Experiaental Population Census and Vital Registration in Kunming Lake Reien, Yunnan( Kurrdng;
Conmittee on Experimental Census and Vital Registration for Kunming Lake Region, February, 1944),
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3 -
Table 4: Age Composition in 16 Countries: Per Cent
Age
group
China
30VI
1953
India
IIII
1951
JapaiEgypt\Yugo-
slavi
30VI
2.6
101._0_
Czecho-
Slovakia.
22 V
1947
2.1
6___
DemocnItielFederal,
Republic
Of Gamew
29 XI _
0-946
:
0.9
6 0
Republic;
of Cam.
I 1954
1.5
England
and Waled
30 VI 110
1954 :./
I 1.5
6A1 _
France
1 -
V
1954
0.7
7.3
Nether
Swda1JnjtJ#14w,
1 a 4 z
l'r-A9i34 AMstr-
lands
I
Statm
i pli
I
1
II
1954,1947
26111
11954
1953
ilVII
195311954 419_11550
1TII
-
1VII. 504/1
1947
0
1-4
5-14
15-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75 an*
3.3
12.3
20.3
17.3
14.6
12.0
943
6.5
3.4
1.0
-
17
fi
3.2
10.1
24.2
19.0
15.3
11.6
8.1
4.9
13.6
-
2.01
9.2
22.7
19.2
15.1
11.2
9.1
6.3
3.7
1.5
2.7
11.0
24.3
17.3
14.7
12.9
9.0
4.7
2.2
0.9
0.3
2.2
8.6
19.0
15.2
14.5
12.7
11.2
8.4
5.5
2.7
-
1.5
6.3
15.9
12.1
14.7
15.1
13.5
10.3
7.0
3.6
2.2
8.3
18.0
13.5
14.9
13.9
11.4
6.8
5.7
2.8
-
1
V2:71
112-4
1?..4125.6
14.1t
14.9
13.3
, 1(0.1i
7.4
5.2
2.6
3.7
4
20.1
14.2
4
1o.5
15.9
3.9
1.7
0.6
0.2
I 2.4
7.6
15.0
15.8
15.7
13.8
11.7
9.4
54
2.6
0.6
19.2
20.1
15=.2
9?9
10.3
6.6
4.1
1.8
0.0
_7
14-9
17.0
13.5
16.1
12.7
874
5.3
2.3
0.1
_
18.1
13..3
1.9
15.4
14.4
11.1
7.3
2.6
_
_5.9
14.7
15:5 -
14.5
12:6
15.0
10..5
6.7
34
-
15.0
12.5
i4.7
;
14.0
14.2
_10.7
7.5
- 3-9
15.3
13.9
15.0
11.1
13.9
10.7
7.7
4.4
-0.0
over
un-
known
All
ages
1001.0000.0
1
J
100.0
100.0
106.0
100.0
ECIO
100.0
10).0 1100.0
100.0
100.0
-1C0- .6.
100.0 1100.0
g
1
00.0
Source: 1) For China: Computed From data given in 1953 census
-
2) For 15 nations: Computed from data given in United Rations: Demographic Yearbopk 1955, Table 10.
771,4
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g9uTuturEd IPoT1sTvals jo Tutunor gNaoz.
vaaIlsT1-els jo aallTumo3 raTiozTpa gLS6I
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,
1
Sample Surveys on PoIulation Change in 16 Hsien
1) Lokiang, Szechwan
2) Sinfan, Szechwan
Peichwan, Szechwan
Lunrchang, Szechwan
Pinyang, KwanFsi
7) Lichuan, Shensi
Sub-total (14 Hsiang,
kiangsu)
a) Kianglin, Kiansu (5
Hsiang)
Tantu,.Kiangsu(3 Hbiang
5 months, Jan-May,1952,
converted to one year
1952
41.6
41,7
52,8
47.9
42.8
33.3
43.8
20,6
26.6
26.7
23.9
23.6
12.0
23,0
12.7
Tun.r:tai, Kiangsu
(1 Hsiang)
Kanyti, Kiangsuil Hsiang,
Pinghai, Kiangsu(lHsian
Two years, Jun.1951-Jun.
1953,converted to oneyeail
9 months, sept.1952-jun.
1953, converted tooneye
Two years, Jun.195:1-Jun.
1953, cohverted_ to oneyeai
Not specified, probably
1952-1953
1953
)10 months, Jun. 19-53--i. to
one year
) One yeEr,Jun.1952-Jim1.19
Two years,1952-1953, con
verted to one year
1 vii 1952- 30 VI 1953
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy A roved for Release 2013/02/20 : CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3
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INTERNATIONELIA STATIWILL, INSTITUTET
L'INSTITUT INTERNATIONAL DE S`PATISTIQUE
THE INTERNATIONAL STATISTICAL INSTITUTE
30 ..SESSION
STOQKHOLM
0/6,15/8 957
A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF ACTUAL VERSUS STATIONARY POPULATIONS
by
V.G. Valaoras .1 )
I INTRODUCTION
Populations carry with them the imprints or their past, which are oharac-
teristtcally reflected in their sex and .ape structure as it becomes available
'in the census return's. ,Variationu in mortality,,fertility'and piFrat,ion, as
they occurred during the population's life history, are mr,tre less conspic-
uously recorded in the ape-sex pyramids, or better so, in.the profiles of the
population, when it f. s stratified by ,affe-Froupi. Taking as example, the pro-
file of the United States' population as it appeared durinr the first half of
this .century, one can notice several interesting features.. The center of
aT 114ts t r at *fist" ? ? ??
??11.11., 111W-1111 R?
/if 'OS WI gm.= tt.
,tttli' WM* p ? ? ?
Yll
IP
!MIRTH
?Pig. 1. The Profile of the United States' Populatkon- (Both
1.900-1950.4.. by .A.ge, ,and Year of Birth,
)...,Member of the United Nations' Secretariat. The views presented ares his
own and not necessarily those of the Secrizitariat;'
? I ?
1?? ?
MapIt7titi?PW.APP,-Pt.A.
rrInv Approved for Release 2013/02/20 CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3
.4440
"st
attraction in thie preeentation is the hypotenuse (profile of the right
triangle whoee vertical side represents the age or the year of birth of the
ooIresponding age group, while the horizontal side denotes the population in
million. This profile, in 1900, was almost a straight line with only a small
bulge at the ages between,20'and 30 years. Fifty years later, in 1950, the
line became a distorted curve with a gaping gulf at the ages of 10 to 20 yearn,
a long tail-line at the ages below ten years and several smaller bulges in the
older ages. Other examples may be drawn from almost every modern population,
the census data of which are available by sex and age groups.
What is the nature and significance of these deviations from the normally
expected smooth profile of human populations? In the case mentioned above,
collateral data on vital statistics and migration offer some explanation. An
intermittent positive net migration during the period prior to 1920 and a decline
of the birth rate in the thirties followed by an accelerated fertility in the
post-war years, explain the irregularities observed.
Uood as this interpretation may seem, it fails to give a complete answer
to the query of how much the iven a e structure differs from the ex ected normal.
To answer this, one must first define what is a normal age structure of a
population. Among the various types of 2IanitIi.E.10_92110.21ILLImel which have and
are being used in this connexion, those of the stable and of the stationary
populations seem to best satisfy the conditions required. Both are types of a
general demographic norm which describe theoretical age (and sex) structures of
a population under the assumption of constant fertility, constant mortality and
12,2.Eigration. The exclusion of the effects of migration from these norms reduces
somewhat the immensity of possible variations in the age structure, but the
number of profiles that may be constructed under the principle of stable
population is still exceedingly large. This number is further reduced to
manageable proportion in the stationary population in which fertility is made
Ilsual to mortality,. Under this principle the variability of population profiles
is restricted within the range of possible variation in one of the two factors
involved.
2) .
Previous publications have made clear that among the variations of
fertility and of mortality, which in the absence of migration mould the shape
the age' structure of a population, these of mortality are by far the best
documented and the most manageable from the point of view of demographic
techniques. Mortality statistics are more plentiful and extend to a considerable
time in the past. Moreover, the long term variations of mortality, in contrast
to those of fertility, seem to take place in a more orderly way. Finally, the
maximum range of mortality variations appears to be more or less restricted by
physiological limits. For example, a very heavy mortality, i.e., one corresponding
to an expectation of life at birth of less than 20 years, seems to be incompatible
with the maintenance of the numbers of the population, for it would call for a
fertility of seven or more live births to ,every. woman aged 15 to 44 years. On
the other end of the range, mortality declines beyond a life expectancy at birth
in the neighborhood of 75 years, seem highly improbable under present and all
forseeable conditions of life.
This concept of ....,_idy...,...c2....,.osed.,12uLLIatiostationarar'a is proposed here to be
used as the 21Liala.1.14.2.22111221112a against which deviations in the profiles
of actual populations may be measured and, as far as possible, interpreted
within the limitation involved. The idea is not new for demographic literature
alli11/0.11.111.11411111?11.11.1.00Me
) _United Rations: 11. e and Sex Patterns of Mortalit . Model Life-Tables for.
Eaktacilk112,22,cICountries. Population Studies, No. 22, New York December,
1955 and United, Nations: methods of Po ulation Pro ections b sex and A:e.
? Population Studies No. 25, New York, August 1954 also;
V.O. ValaoTaa, "Standard Age and Sex Patterns of Mortality' in Trends and
? 11111111.1.2.1111.91a1L1LI, Milbank Memorial Fund.,, New 'York 1956.
Declassifiedin Part - Sanitized Copy Approvedf Rel
? 64
Yry,
"
3)
has rapeatedly hinted at thin method in the pant. However, an overall
picture of norMal variationo in th'ese5nulalLuzaelialt and the reoapitu-
Tatione of methods for lisihg thin information in order t neoii dmo of our
dayly demographio problems, may be of some interest to the participants of
this meeting.
II. MODEL STATIONARY AND CLOSED POPULATIONS
A series of twelve model life-tables was constructed at about equally
opaced levele of gelieral7777lity, from a level corresponding to an
expectation of life at birth (both sexes), of 20 years to that of 74 years.
An interval of five years .of expectation of life was used throughout, excep
for the last one which was reduced to four years. Three sets of correspondi
funotions, namely both sexes, malc?. and females, were included in each mode
One hundred national life-tables 4) selected from those appeaxing in the la t
three volumes of the United nations Demo ,ra hie Yearbooks, for the years 1953,
1954 and 1955, were used as the basis or computations. The numbers surviving
(lx) at exact ages 1, 5, 10, 15... 80 and 85 years, were plotted against the
corresponding expectations of life at birth (es) for each sex, and second
degree, parabolas wore fitted to the observations in order to derive the lx
values at the pre-determined levels of e8. In certain cases the theoretical
values had to be slightly adjusted to correspond more closely to the
observations.'
The result, appears in the Appendix in the form of 'six basic tables,
giving, at rogi4ar intervals of life expectancy, the principal life-table
functions. They are: A.- the numbers Surviving at exadt age (1x) out of an
original cohort of 10,000 live births; B.- the accumulated number of deaths
from birth to the specified age group (z:1); C.- the probabilities' of dying
3) Among the recent and most comprehensive studies in this respect See:
George Stolnitz, 'Life Tables from Limited Data, A Demographic Approach,
Princeton University, 1956; also:
United Nations: Methods of Using Census Statistics for the Calculation
(2f1. Tablesfe.322LsandOthnora2hicMeasures, by Giorgio Mortara.
Population Studios ,No. 7, New York', Nov. 1949.
?? our.. .s ot., ? e, is. s.,??? $s Al rr ???141 Sr r ? r. to.. 401?11011?40 .44
711d following national life-tables were selected in Virtue of consistency
,
Of r6sults-4nd thoir-represurqativeness of the various levels of general
mortality; Australia: '1901-10, 1920-22, 1932-34, and .1946-48+ Auitrie4
1901-05, 193O-19,1949-51; Belgium: 1891-1900, 1928-32 and 13777
Canada: 1930-32, 1940-42, 1947 and 1950-52; Czechoslovakia: 18951902 and
. 1929-32; Chile; 1930 and 1940; Denmark: 1901-05, 191.1-15,.193i.-35, 1941-415
and 1946-50; gisal: 1936-38; England and Waled: 1901-10,, 1910,-12, 1920-22,
193Q-32 and' 1952; Finlandf 1901-10; France: 1898-1903, 1908-13, 1928-33,
1946-49 and 195,0-51; German: 1901-10'1 1924-26 and 1949-51 (Fed. Rep.);
India: 1891-1901, 1901-11; 1921-31 and 1941-50; Italy: 1901-11, '19,21-22
.
and 1930-32; Jamaica: 1929-22; laisat,: 1899-1903J, 1909.-13, 1921-25, 1926-30,
1935-36,'1949-50 and 1953; Mauritius: 11942-.46, Mexico: 1930 and 1940;
Netherlands: 1900-109, 1910-20, 1921,-30, 1931-40 and 1947-49; New Zealand:
1901-05, 1911-15, 1934-38 and 1950-52; Norway: 1901-10, 1911-20, 1921-30,
1931-40 and 1946-50; hslyal.: 1939-42 and 1949-52; Scotland: 1920-22 and
1930-32; ,Spain: 1900, 1910, 1920 an4 1930; Sweden: 1901.710, 1911720,
1921730, 1931-40, .1941745 and 1946-50; Switzerland: 1910-11,' 1920-21,
1929-32, 1933-37, 1939-44 Taiwan: 1936-40; Uniqi' South Jfrica: .1920-22,
1925-27, 1935-37 and 1945-47; United States. of America: 1900-02,.1909-11,
1929-311 1932-41, 1949-.51 and (whites) 1950
These data were arranged at ascending order or male life expectancy at
birth and the averages of groups, consisting,of 10.A.ife tablep each, 'were
used for the computation;of4h-e.theereieal-mirv:qs:-.15,.eridsiouriusuallY
high mortality were excluded from this, series as much as it was possible. ,
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within?the age interval ( D.- the oomplete expeotation of life at exact
age (0); Bee the total a se and the distribution of the stationary populat,pn
by sex and age groups, expressed as a percentage of the total population (both
sexes) and, finally, F.- the survival ratios from birth to the speoified age
group.
t ? ,
A number of generalizations were used in the computation of the basic
tables, the most important of which are as follows: A life-table for both
sexes was oonetruoted for each model on the basis of those for each sex, at
an assumed birth-ratiotof 105 males per 100 female births. The mean population
in all quinquennial age-grqups4 with the exception of the first, was taken to
equal 1.1c) average of'the,twO marginal lx values multiplied by five. Those for
the a 1-groups-b-eyaiid.:,thelige,:,!46.f.;.8,5 were based on extrafOIated lx values on
the iumpt1.on of a certainty of dying within the next quinquennial age-group,
foxy t .1' those surviving beyond their 100th birthday. The mean' populatien for
the'f,i.rst'year of,lif,e (Lc) wab assumed te equal'the number surviving at age
one, lAus,one-foU'rth of the deilths occuring during the first year. Finally
the mean populat,ion of the age-group 1-4 was taken to equal 121 11+2.1 15.
With these generalizations and certain rounding of the probability of
, dying, at the high mortality levels, these models were taken to approximate
successive steps of general mortality. improvements, from the heavy toll at
Int
wilich a poplilatipn,can barely sustain its numbers (e020 yrs) to a little
beyond the best mortality experience so far attained (tg=74 yrs). It is not
intended to duplicate the condition Of any individual populations, for the
simple reason that indi'vidVal peculiarities in the patterns of 'dying, as they
occur in the various populations, have been glossed out by the,use of the
average rates and the application of relatively simple mathematical formulas.
Nevertheless, these models fit sufficiently well the observations of average
patterns of mortality conditions and, 661,664i:ifiy, they may be used as
theoretical standards for assessing deviations in the status and the
dynamics of actual populations.
4
I ? S. 1st .11,?.
1.13,614 JO... ? MIN. 1 a .
A few limitations of this scheme must, however, be brought up at the
outset. In the first place there is little structural resemblance between
actual populations and the models presented here. Even if the population of
a country approaches or has reached the stationary and closed condition
described by the models, its age structure will 'till 'differ perceptibly,
until this condition had lasted'uriChaii:ged long enough to influence all age
groups.
A second limitation arises from the scarcity of observations at the
lower and the upper limits of the range, within which mortalityeonditions
were presumed to move. For example, mortality levels below a life expectancy
at birth of 30 years are not adequately substantiated by actual 'observations,
and experience beyond a life expectancy of 70 years is still very limited.
Only between these two levels, the present models may be taken to describe
more or less satisfactorily the average mortality - fertility conditions,
and their effects upon the structure of a population.
Finally, the reader should keep in mind the fact that the,se models are
based on the experience of some two dozen countries during the, period of the
last fifty years. Although, this experience is believed to offer a good
generalization for the approximation of average demographic conditions of
any country or period, atypical changes in mortality patterns should be
given careful consideration as to their applicability to the present general
scheme.
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MODEL POPULATIONS
Prom the basic characteristics of the stationary and closed population,
which these models describe, the following postulates emerges
16 - General fertilit and mortalit rates: Since the annual numbers of
?
births and those of deaths are equal in all models, namely 20500 for both
sexes, or 10500 for ma1e5 and 10000 for females, and the resulting total
population inoreauee in size, as the mortality intensity decreases, the
oorreeponding crude birth and crude death-rates, as well as those equivalent
to the more refined fertility-rates, in the twelve models, decline steadily
aa shown in Table 1.
Thus, at the heavy toll of about 50 deaths per 1000 population (model 1)
the aggregated fertility rate, i.e: the number of live births per woman at
the reproductive age of 15 - 44 years, amounts to almost seven children.
This in a very high fertility for a population which ean barely retain 9s
,c
modest size and seldom if ever is it duplicated in actual populations. ;), It
ie known, for example, that even when fertility is not voluntarily controlled,
social and physiological barriers curtail more or less the "maximum"
reproductive capacity of the human female, for the simple reason that not all
women at the reproductive age are permanently exposed to the chance of child-
birth. Even if all women in a population were married and living with their
husbands, the proportion of temporary or permanent sterility seems to be of
a substantial order of magnitude and in direct relation with the severity of
prevailing mortality conditions. On the other extreme (model XII), only a
little over two live births per woman in the reproductive age, suffice to
sustain a population almost four times as large as the former.
TABLE 1. TOTAL POPULATION, DEATH AND BIRTH-RATES AND SPECIFIC FERTILITY-
RATES, IN TWELVE MODLLS OF STATIONARY POPULATION (Both Sexes),
WITH 20500 DEATHS AND AN EQUAL NUMBER OF BIRTHS ANNUALLY.
Model eg
No.
(Bs)
Total Per 1000 Popul-
ation
Population Deaths Births
Women Fertility Rates Births per Woman
15 - 44 per 1000 in the Age Group
Years Women 15-44 yrs. 15-44 yrs.
1 20 411,596 49,8 49.8 92,607 221.4 6.64
II 25 513,344 3969 3969 117,462 174.5 5624
III 30 614,389 33,4 33.4 136,910 147.6 4643
IIT 35 715,460 28.6 28.6 158,880 129.0 3?87
V 40 816,878, 25.1 25,.1 178,877 114.6 3.44
1/1 45 918,524 22.3 22.3 196,950 103.0 3.09
VII 50 1,021,943 20.0 20.0 219,085 93.6 H 2.81
VIII 55 1,124,915 18.2 '18.2 228,187 89.8 H 2.70
IX 60 1,225,791 16.7 16.7 255,340 80.3 2?41
x 65 1,329,964 15.4 15?4 270,860 75.7 2.27
XI 70 1,430,966 14.3 14.3 284,180 72.1 2.16
XII 74 1,517,114 1365 13.5 293,155 69.9 2.10
400=14itt,iO4.?
2. Size and age structure. Because mortality declines :faster at the
younger than the older, ages, more people survive ,to later ages and, therefore,
the size and the age distribution of the stationary populations change '
conspicuously from one model to the other. The combined 'effect, of a parallel,
decline in the general birth-, and death-rates is demonstrated in a series pf
population pyramids (figure 2), in which each square of shaded area
represents 10.000 people. In, the absence of migration, the age structure is
standard for each model,and.the population. in .each quinquennial age-group
equals the product of 'a fixed number of birthsn:thiS .P64.0.:5:.,X 10500 for
males and 5'x 10000 for females) multiplied by a. iurviValait160- the magnitude
Yonftiokekni.......harmia.....1.w.hamatiamoodas
5) See: Unesco.-
pp. 26-27.
41
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3
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4
rat, *WWI 4$ ? -.
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of which in determlnad by the level of /mineral mortality as well ao by the
ace of the Froup. A aerion of auoh ratios is given in Appendix table'AI.
Thin oharaoteriatio is ahared by actual populations which aro also made
up mclinly of the survivors of a oertaip number of 4rtha. annually. For the
'younger age proupe at which the factor of migration may be taken au
negligible, the survival ratios, ao derived by the, modelsrmay 'safely be
'applied to actual populations. If the'pupulation in a given age croup and
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Survival.. Ratios from Birth to the..Spe,cified Age Groups at
VariousaLevels of Life Expectancy.at Birth (both.soxes).
1: under 1 year, 2: under 5 years,. 3v under 10 years,
Al- under I'5
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IP
the number or birthe registered during the correeponding period are known,
the survival ratio that may be computed from theee numbere would approximate
o1on7ly the general mortality level, to which this population group was exposed.
TABLE.A. SURVIVAL RATIOS FOR THE POPULATION (Both Sexes) AT THE YOUNGER AGE
GROUPS IN THE TWELVE MODELb.
Modelo Age Gr6ups
2P 0- 1 0 -4 0 - 9 0 - 14
II WrESEPPRA"P.1.911..,..0.0.../...M..m..mos
I 20 .7718 .6370 .5648 .5262
II 25 .8024 .6832 .6194 .5859
III 30 .8271 .7222 .6666 .6376
Iv 35 .8479 .7556 ;1072 .6826
^ 40 .8682 .7890 .7480 .7274
va 45 .8680 .8226 .7893 .7726
VII 50 .9071 .8565 .8316 .8187
VIII 55 .9264 .8897 ?8723 .8629
Ix 60 .9454 .9204 .9090 .9026
x 65 .9625 ,9469 .9404 .9364
XI 70 .9786 .9704 .9672 .9652
XII 74 .9920 .9888 .9874 .9864
Similarly, when the mortality level is known from other sources, the number of
births corresponding to the given population may also be derived. At later ages,
the survival ratios may help to retrace the effect of past migration, or even
to correct given numbers of births, if the remaining pertinent data are
accurately established.
3.- The mortality functions of_LI22_212..iLlanz_10.2211121isas. Among the
TABLE 1. COPJFFICIENTS FOR CONVERTING AGE-SPECIFIC DEATH-RATES (511x) TO LIFE-
TABLE PROBABILITY OF DYING (59x). COMPUTED ON THE DATA OF THE
STATIONARY POPULATIONS.
UNA aniiirols
5Mx
Conversion factor
for age- for all other
group 1 - 4 age groups
Conversion factor
5mx for age- for all other
group 1 - 4 age grmups
-9.,
various funotione which measure mortality foreee in the stationary popu-
lations, those of probability of dying within an age interval (ax) and the
number of deaths within this interval (x), aovire special el.gnificanoe.
As it is known, the first of these functions is closely related with the
age-specific death-rate (mx) derived from census and registraV.on eturns.
When the interval ia uniformly given in five-year age-groupu f) the
relationship between vix and 5ax may bo expressed by the coefficients given
in Table 3. The age interval of five years is large enough to minimize random
errors, but small enough not to be unduly influenced by the atypical age-
structure which as a rule is found in actual populations. In the light of
this relationship, actual populations may be directly converted into the
stationary populations of corresponding mOrtality, by means of these
ooefficients.
The second function i.e.: the di6tribution of deaths by five-year age-
groups (51x) may be used as a toot of reliability of the above conversion.
,Since the annual numbers of births and deaths in the stationary population
are equal, and the age structure is standard for each level of general
mortality, the distribution of deaths, by age, is also standard for each
level of mortality-fertility, assumed to mould the various models. This
distribution in a life table with its radix in a multiple of ten, is in fact
a percentage distribution of deaths by age, which may be accumulated from
birth until the last of the,survivors of the cohort dies. From this
presentation the median age and the two quadrille ages, that, is the ages at
which 25 II
%:: 50 % and 75 % of all deaths have occured, were derived, as shown
TABLE 4. AGE AT WHICH 25 %, 50 %, AND 75 % OF ALL DEATHS HAVE OCCURED IN THE
12 MODEL POPULATIONS.
Model 22
No. (B.S.
Median and uadrille A es at Death in Years
25% 50%. 75%
20
II 25
III 30
IV 35
40
VI 45
VII 50
VIII 55
Ix.... 60
65
XI 70
XII 74
0.82
0.95
1.56
2.56
3?84
9.00
24.30
37.58
49.56
57.86
63.76
67.87
6.81
15.66
25.14
33.93
43.62
53.10
6o.28
65.02
68.52
71.82
74.80
77.25
38.12
4709
55.49
63.12
68.28
71.76
74..11
76.54
78.50
80.57
82.55
84.36
These values', in turn, indicate a certain level of life expectancy at birth
and the two results i.e.: the one obtained from the conversion of the age-
specific death-rates and the other from the median age at death, should
correspond, if the given age-specific mortality was accurately recorded.
In the stationary populations the median and the quadrille ages at'death
constitute a most sensitive indicator in measuring general levels of health
7) Experience has shown that a combined death-rate covering the entire group
under the age of five years, yields better results than if infant and.
early childhood mortality are taken separately.
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of the actual population, as expressed by the corresponding expectation
of life at birth. Figure 4 showo diagramatically the great amplitude of
this' sot* ofiourVes in defining the approximate life expectancy at birth
froth the age, by whieh a tertain percentage of dciathe occurs in the .
ateitionary, population. In actual populatiOn6 the median and the ouadrills
ages at death are more or lees dieturbed by the effect of unbalanoed-
fertility and migration of the paet and can only te ueed when the '
population is converted into the correeponding stationary type. The
varioue steps of this proceso are explained in the following chapter.
aiummemelis4ftwalosumumnsimmoimmoommar
?
?
Fig. 4. Median and Saerille Ages at Death at various levels of
General Mortality.- (es, both sexes from20 to 74.yrs.)
tO
AGE
?
U' -
ti
IV. POSSIBLE U$ES OF MOUL POPDLAT;OiTE.
Mo4e1 popuIatione oilier a ;good standard, against which peouliaritien in
structure and dynamics of actual population may be compared and ore or less
aesetwed,ao to their nature and.origin.. They also are useful for predicting
future population trends by age-sex groups. Finally,! they provide an easy'
method for determininEr the approxiMate levels, of pnerea hortality, and by
implidation, levele of fertility 4nd f population growth,, on the basis of a
few key population'data, even if a completed ?set of 'thee data is lacking,
As a first step the quinquenn al agespecifio dpath-ratee are multiplied
by the corresponding,coefficiente order to arriveLatth'e life-table '
mortality-funotien'by ace groups. Q) ,From this tunotdon, it, is easy to pass on
to the next function Of port:Ione sur;v%I.N'thg'at,i'he beginning of each age-inter-
val, out of an initial cohort of 1,0100births, 9) and to that of persons
dying within each ace interval. Tablet'D and F, in the Appendigive the
complete' expectation of life and the percentage age distributio4 of the
corresponding otationary populations..Theee values may:bp taken from the model
closest to the indicated mortality level,' or be furtherimproved.14
interpolating the data of tho two ad,loining models, around the indicated life
expectancy at birth.
One more step, that of equalizing the two populations, by multiplying
the proportional 114:e distribution.ot .the.stationary ,population by the total
number of 'persons in the actual pepul'atiein, will provide 4 basis:for
comparison between the Rge structures of the actual:versue the Corresponding
stationary populations. In the following example anatIpmpt is made to apply
this method on the 1950 population census of Switzerland. C011atpral data as
they exist for the Swiss popult7dbion were freely used in this example in order
to illustrate the various possibilities, of ,the methedsl.
As a first'sts14 the'expeetation of life at birth.for the 'census date
was appreximated on the basis of the following data::
?
Age' Population'
EiTalgs COIL
' Under yr.
5 Yrs,
10 "
15 "
I,
U
76,5
412.2
814,2
1110. 'T
Births. Survival
S000) '
7.17.1 ?A *NI id??????Mk7.?.I......7.
84.9
435.3
339.3'
1.1 58.8.
e8
,9017 48.6
.9468 ' 65.0
9582 68.3
9585 6M.
,
Because of an Obvious underenUmeratien of Chi4dren.',' the' MOPt probable
life expectancy rt birth, 'resultng from the application of the survival
ratios, was Sound in the last lifte'in wirichithe poptilation unclet 15 years of
age and the births'reLgistered during the 15 years prior te thedate,of,the
census were compared.. On the basis of this indicatienthe'corre'sponding
stationary population was, constructed as, in col. 5of ,table
11.111?0711???~IMMYINAMMNIIM77.7?1??????
8) For a detaid and more elaborate methed,of, converting te'lx pee:
L. Reed and 'M. Merrel, "A Short Method or ,corpucting an Abridged,
Life-Table" in the Arleyjcan, j_ourrol of 14yAienp, Vol i 39, No. 2,
September 1939.-
If the average number:,ofbirths regiOtere4,4uring.the preceding five-
year period is used in.stead of the 'ConVeritienaradixthe:p!ult
would correspond to a;stati6nary population which could be constructed.
on the basis of the current number of births at the observed mortality.
level.
9)
'7s7x
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04 l' X
al d 0 0 k e-%
+) c.) rd U2 ?P cd N (1)
0 tg)
ol i
cd 0 0 .0 ko 0 ? al
4 4 +3 0 srl
4-, A9 .ri, +3 0 rgl C?
0 0 wZ rd0 MU) : tC)I) r-1
$4
0
co cH 4-1 PI sr-I. 0
MikMW 0 0
54 g 0 .1-4 Cl)
0 0 CO po F-1 +30)
te st-i mi ,
4-, r0 eP
0 1-1; 4(1! ir0
I .4
a) r-i 0
ri cd 0 it-I 0 +2
40 0 tn MI ci-I 0)C3
cti P4 if-i, , 0 0 0? P4 k
+3 :14 f_10 .N0 '4.5r4pcil itik' cHr_loct, a)800 r-I.F.1
0 +I
0
P4 P.4 Pi' a)
e.1) d 0 04 ,...4 0 c.) st-1
cH 0 41 N cti0 4j
O 0 0 I>mHd
+) d Cl) 0, 4.''r 0
cd cti +I cH p 0
.1-1 o 0 ,0
.0 0 4.3 .0 .ri XI k PA "4'
ct3 in ?cr) E-4 4
Id '
I-- I I I I I
-P ? , ?
?? 40 ? ? 0; ' OS' " 0
Ow LC) VO Ve- 1-e
(1) Pi ?
r-4 r-I
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01N1
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....0000100000,10,
-,WIJW4-3T
If no other information had been available for this population,
comparisone would have been restricted between the age struoture of the
aotual and the stationary populations. However, in this case, oollateral data
provide a series of estimates on total popelation (col, 6) and on life
expectancy at birth (col. 7) for the entire period under review, With this
information the eurvival ratios (ool, 8) appear to reflet more faithfully
the actual trends inipopulation growth and in mortality improvements during
this period. On thie basis the number of births expected.' to occur at the
statienary level wore oomputed as in ool. 9, Similarly, the number of persona
whioh would have survived at the various age groups out of the number of
births registered in the corresponding periods were found to be.ao in col. 10.
This illustration is given only as an example of application of the
method without much claim of accuracy in the final results. A more comprehens-
ive scrutiny of the original data would have been necessary if the resulte
were to be taken as final answers. However, some tentative conclusions may
still be reached from this application, as follows:
r I t? r 11.1111,1111.1 WO ISIS'I/ 1 to 11 1 111 I oft ? I I SPI IIIISIflI.iI.IIIIIt bet: lIFt, flu::: III ? 1 IsillaS : 1 III I II I.1 ? I RI I
(a) The expectation of life at birth for the population of Switzerland
(both sexes) at the census date of 1950 appears to be in the neighbourhood
of 69 years. (The last official'life table for the period 1939-44 gave 62.7
years for males and 67.0 years for females.) An abridged life table for that
date may be reconstructed by means of the Appendix tables of this report.
(b) Tho trend of mortality improvements ovei. this period, which in this
example was taken ,from the series of existing life,tables, could also have
been approximately derived from-the-quotients between the census population
by age groups and the corresponding number of registered births.
(c) Fertility,appears to have followed an undulet-ing-trend. Measured
from the jaumbers required at'the stationary,levell actual births were in
excess by over 20 % at the period of 1911-15, but diminished in numbers
during the first World War. After a temporary revival at the end of the war,
LirLhe followed a steep downward trend, reaching a. point belnw rnpinnmmnnt
in the period just before World War II; the number of births increased again
at an accelerated rate during the decade prior to the last census.
? (d) With the exception Of .the first quinquennial age groups, the ?,
enumerated population in all other age groups was greater than that expected
to survive on the basis of the registered births and the mortality conditions
assumed. This.excess would indicate a positive net'migration if all factors
involved in these computations were absolutely accurate. However, in view of
some apparent weaknesses in the original data and the graduations used in the
development of t?his example the results obtained should be treated as
indicative of trends rather than as quantitative answers.
In theory, the method is sound but since its findings are developed on
tha basis of a few population data, these data should possess the maximum
accuracy possible. To this end, the use of sampling methods or other special
surveys in order to strengthen the precision of existing data or, in their
absence, to procure the necessary basic figures, are particularly recommended.
Once these key population data are secured and their exactness well
established, the model populations offer a short cut method to arrive at
results which under normal circumstances would have necessitated a far greater
number of factual data and considerably more time and labour. For example, the
exact knowledge of the number of live births and of infant deaths in a
population during a normal calendar year, provides already a good basis for
roughly estimating the life expectancy at birth for the total population. If
this information is extended to cover the population in the age group under
'five years and the number of births which occurred during the five preceding
I43
T7:TT.T7L'77r,7,:t7,7T
)4,01mixt,;*.s.m.7,17.
, !:* l'jj',07t*rlf.tl.t1 ? .40r,
Aviv*
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3
year the a)tre-sponding life-table may Ve based on a more seoure ground.
Finally, whewtho entiru age structure of the population in known, together
with the number of births whieh occurred in the reoent past, a good insight
of' the population's life history may be obtained, with approximate but
reasonably gooa estimates of pt levels of mortality as well an implioations
about at trends of fertility, migration and of the rate of population growth
in general.
4."'" 1"4 04R PV4.;11 ANN axe gngjog
LA COMPARAISOU DES POPULATIONS REELLES AVEC LES POPULATIONS STATIONNATRES
La prdsente ?6tude offre une sdrie de douze "populations modblon" du
type stationnaire, correspondant aux 1.rincipaux niveaux do la mortalitd,
l'espdranse de vie t la naissanco variant de 20 h 74 ans. Les caractdrintlques
de cos modbles sont'analysdes et des mdthodes sont indiqudos pour passer
rapidement cl.une population rdelle h la population strLtionnairq correepondant
son'niveau de mortalitd.
En utilisant une sdrie de "coefficipqts", on pout, h partir dos taux do
mortalitd par age, calculer trbs simplument par groups de cinq ans luu proba-
bilitds de d6cb3 classiques des tables de mortalita. De ame au moyen d'une
sdrie de "taux d6 survie" reliant la population d'un groupe d'ages au nombre
de naissances dont.cette.population est issue, on pout otablir une relation
directe entre le nombre des naissances et la structure par age (et par sexe)
de la popuqation.. De telles comparaisons donnent des renseignemonts h la
foio'cur passe de la mortalitd et dela fdconditd et, indirectement,
our les migrations,Rassdes et plus.g4nrlement sur lc taux d'accroissement de
la population.
Les "modbles" ,considdrds ici ont dtd concus pour dormer des reisultats
utiles mames on l'absence dune sdrie complbte ad? chiffres our la structure
de la population et l'enregistrement des statistiques ddmographiques. Avec
seulement quelques chiffres,fondamentauxf cette mdthode fournit un moyen
rapid? d'Obtenir des rdsultats qui normalement auraient exigd des statistiques
beaucoup plus nombreuses et aussi beaucoup plus de temps et do travail.
Toutefois, et c'est lh une condition essentielle de succbs, il est :tits
important que les donndes servant de base aux calculs posstdent le maximum
de prdcisi:on possile.
,,,,:'IT,',,.
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assified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043ROn1mnnRnnn9_-4
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3
year the a)tre-sponding life-table may Ve based on a more seoure ground.
Finally, whewtho entiru age structure of the population in known, together
with the number of births whieh occurred in the reoent past, a good insight
of' the population's life history may be obtained, with approximate but
reasonably gooa estimates of pt levels of mortality as well an implioations
about at trends of fertility, migration and of the rate of population growth
in general.
4."'" 1"4 04R PV4.;11 ANN axe gngjog
LA COMPARAISOU DES POPULATIONS REELLES AVEC LES POPULATIONS STATIONNATRES
La prdsente ?6tude offre une sdrie de douze "populations modblon" du
type stationnaire, correspondant aux 1.rincipaux niveaux do la mortalitd,
l'espdranse de vie t la naissanco variant de 20 h 74 ans. Les caractdrintlques
de cos modbles sont'analysdes et des mdthodes sont indiqudos pour passer
rapidement cl.une population rdelle h la population strLtionnairq correepondant
son'niveau de mortalitd.
En utilisant une sdrie de "coefficipqts", on pout, h partir dos taux do
mortalitd par age, calculer trbs simplument par groups de cinq ans luu proba-
bilitds de d6cb3 classiques des tables de mortalita. De ame au moyen d'une
sdrie de "taux d6 survie" reliant la population d'un groupe d'ages au nombre
de naissances dont.cette.population est issue, on pout otablir une relation
directe entre le nombre des naissances et la structure par age (et par sexe)
de la popuqation.. De telles comparaisons donnent des renseignemonts h la
foio'cur passe de la mortalitd et dela fdconditd et, indirectement,
our les migrations,Rassdes et plus.g4nrlement sur lc taux d'accroissement de
la population.
Les "modbles" ,considdrds ici ont dtd concus pour dormer des reisultats
utiles mames on l'absence dune sdrie complbte ad? chiffres our la structure
de la population et l'enregistrement des statistiques ddmographiques. Avec
seulement quelques chiffres,fondamentauxf cette mdthode fournit un moyen
rapid? d'Obtenir des rdsultats qui normalement auraient exigd des statistiques
beaucoup plus nombreuses et aussi beaucoup plus de temps et do travail.
Toutefois, et c'est lh une condition essentielle de succbs, il est :tits
important que les donndes servant de base aux calculs posstdent le maximum
de prdcisi:on possile.
,,,,:'IT,',,.
Llr;,.* , 343.3
,.-: -?,:i ., 4-14, 4, . :: ,',4 4 ',tv?t '4.4
0 . sop!, 110 101, 1 1, n lot ii.g as ..;..arann.i...:
1141 Ifg2A -111 -III
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assified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043ROn1mnnRnnn9_-4
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3
year the a)tre-sponding life-table may Ve based on a more seoure ground.
Finally, whewtho entiru age structure of the population in known, together
with the number of births whieh occurred in the reoent past, a good insight
of' the population's life history may be obtained, with approximate but
reasonably gooa estimates of pt levels of mortality as well an implioations
about at trends of fertility, migration and of the rate of population growth
in general.
4."'" 1"4 04R PV4.;11 ANN axe gngjog
LA COMPARAISOU DES POPULATIONS REELLES AVEC LES POPULATIONS STATIONNATRES
La prdsente ?6tude offre une sdrie de douze "populations modblon" du
type stationnaire, correspondant aux 1.rincipaux niveaux do la mortalitd,
l'espdranse de vie t la naissanco variant de 20 h 74 ans. Les caractdrintlques
de cos modbles sont'analysdes et des mdthodes sont indiqudos pour passer
rapidement cl.une population rdelle h la population strLtionnairq correepondant
son'niveau de mortalitd.
En utilisant une sdrie de "coefficipqts", on pout, h partir dos taux do
mortalitd par age, calculer trbs simplument par groups de cinq ans luu proba-
bilitds de d6cb3 classiques des tables de mortalita. De ame au moyen d'une
sdrie de "taux d6 survie" reliant la population d'un groupe d'ages au nombre
de naissances dont.cette.population est issue, on pout otablir une relation
directe entre le nombre des naissances et la structure par age (et par sexe)
de la popuqation.. De telles comparaisons donnent des renseignemonts h la
foio'cur passe de la mortalitd et dela fdconditd et, indirectement,
our les migrations,Rassdes et plus.g4nrlement sur lc taux d'accroissement de
la population.
Les "modbles" ,considdrds ici ont dtd concus pour dormer des reisultats
utiles mames on l'absence dune sdrie complbte ad? chiffres our la structure
de la population et l'enregistrement des statistiques ddmographiques. Avec
seulement quelques chiffres,fondamentauxf cette mdthode fournit un moyen
rapid? d'Obtenir des rdsultats qui normalement auraient exigd des statistiques
beaucoup plus nombreuses et aussi beaucoup plus de temps et do travail.
Toutefois, et c'est lh une condition essentielle de succbs, il est :tits
important que les donndes servant de base aux calculs posstdent le maximum
de prdcisi:on possile.
,,,,:'IT,',,.
Llr;,.* , 343.3
,.-: -?,:i ., 4-14, 4, . :: ,',4 4 ',tv?t '4.4
0 . sop!, 110 101, 1 1, n lot ii.g as ..;..arann.i...:
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assified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043ROn1mnnRnnn9_-4
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3
III1,1,4?.?4.; 1,44, 441 111 411114 1141 411
4,4,404
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3
111
VIII
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Esimistaas
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3
-
TIM T. laria MEW 122 sit 120 NZ MOW 111:11111011C11 Elf 512.11011Aff ARMATAINS AT TAIUX-05 1121/23CfC.10M4L 1133TATiff.
P?resat Distribution by Fiv? T?kos Age Groups
4 Sim S. S
0 - 4
5- 9
10 - 14
15 - 19
26 - 24
204, is 411.596 201.40
1544
12.27
11.19
10.34
9.41
26.1 I - 211.3411 51.18
6.65
6.24
5.71
5.30
4.67
19.9 6 1311.0114 411.22
741
6.03
5.4S
5.016
4.54
25.4 NS 313.314 =DA
as...? a 260062 512.72
13.64
6.19
IWO
5.60
10.36
5.24
f.74f
4.516
ea,
253 p 252466 4946
645
5.49
5.12
440
4.43
3Eit0 111 e14-3189 1E0.00
22.65
36.19
9.67
9.21
9.65
-294 K X41.1E0 50.31
6.10
5.15
4.29
4.67
4.r.a
30.6 7 305.419 4949
5.95
5.04
4.78
4.54
/..:5
55.6 85 71.9.46Li 100.4X0
20.ez
9.44
9.07
8.73
8=1)
3442 K 358-3116 56.66
5.46
4.78
4.59
4.43
4.22
35.11 7 357.144 49.92
5.346
4-66
4-48
4-30
4.1-
44..0 BS O&M 100.00
9.90
Car
8.61
6.35
8.= '
38.9 1 ARM3/ 49.90
5.01
4.49
4-34
4.23
4.- -
41.0, 7 4G9.241 50.10
A-19
4.31
4.25
4-12
3- -
45.0 II 911111.524 =AA;
9..18
8.44
8-25
11.05
7.--
43.7 X 457.374 49.79
4..45
4.27
4.17
4407
3-'?-
16.2 1 461-130 50.21
4.53
4-17
448
3.98
3.';
5040 is.2.021.963 100.00
1.59
8.(29
7.95
741
7 _
48.5 K 501.149 49.75
4.35
4.09
4.02
3.95
3.9
51.5 I 513494 50.25
6.21.
4.00
3-93
3.86
3 -"
55.0 1.1243j5 100.60
1.21
7-79
7.69
7.52
7.L
50.4 559-567 49.74
4.11
3-89
56.6 565,366 56.26
345
3.80
3.75
60.0 1.225.25a. 100.00
7.70
7.51
7.44
7.36
7.25
58.2 6I0.82111 49413
3.91
3.81
3-77
3.73
? -3 -67
614 614.963 5CL.17
3.79
3.70
3-63
3..5
65.0 1.329.964 iikaa
7.30
7.23
7.10
7.11
7.A.3
ea K 663.744 49.91
3.72
3.66
3-t4
3.61
3-57
66.7 666.22t. -50.09
3-58
3.514
3..52
3.91-
3.46
70.0 115 1.430.966 100.00
6.95
6.90
6-18
6.26
6.82
41.2 715-210 - 4.9-110
3-55
3.32
3.51
3.49
3.47
73-77 r 715496 50412
3440
3.38
3.37
3.36
3.35
14.0 II 1.517.114 1011.0
6.68
6.66
6.65
6.6114
tuba
K 719.272 _ 50.0
3.42
340
3.40
3.39
3.3.
15.7r /57442 _49.96
3.26
3.26
3.25
3=25
3.24
25 -29
4.61.4.s.
30 ?- 34
35 - 39
40 - f.4
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
? -
6.60
7.38
6.35
5.32
440
3.33
2-43
1.64
0.99
0.51
' 0.21
0.06
- 0.01
GAO
4.40
3.90
3.3*
2.05
2.32
140
1.31
_ 0.87
0.51
- 0.25
_
0.10
0.02
0.00
0.00
1.00
3.48
247
247
148
1.53
1.12
0.77
048
0.21
0.11
0.04
0.01
0.40
1.27
7.46
6.63
5.78
4.92
4.06
3.21
- 2.40
1.65
1.00
0.49
0.19
0.05
-0.01
3.64
3.42
249
2.516
2.08
1.62
?1.19
to-79
0.0
Q.
647
--0.61
0.00
4.03
3.62
3-21
2.79
4.39
1.98
1.59
1.21
0.06
0.55
0.29
0.12
0.04
1.05
7.40
6.74
6.05
5-34
4.61
3.117
3.09
2.29
1.50
0.83
0.35
6.10
0.01
4.11
3.72
3.1.4
3.09
2-71
2.32
1.92
1.50
1.07
.64
0.34
0.13
0.f.0
3-94
3-62
3.30
2-96
2.63
2.29
1.95
1.59
1.22
0.84
049
0.22
?0.ta
0.07
0.01.
7-82
7.31
6.78
6.23
5.66
5.C4
4.40
3.67
2.85
1.98
1.16
0.53
0.16
-P.03
3.98
3-72
3.45
3.16
2.06
2.53
2.17
1.77
1.33
0.81
0.46
-0.2o
0.05
3.84
3.59
3.33
3.07
2.?0
2.53
2.z3
1.90
1.52
1-10
C.68
0.33
0.11
0.02
7.63
7.23
6.21
6.37
5.51
5.39
4.80
4.11
3.27
2.34
1.42
4,.62
0.23
0.05
3.87
3.67
1-45
3-22
2-97
2-69
2-36
1.541
1-53
1.0$
- 0.E0
0.26
('.f*
0.01
3.76
3-56
1.36
3.15
. 2.94
2.70
2.44 -
2.13
1.71.
1.29
(.83
0.42
0.15
('.04
742
7.17
6.34t...48
6.L9
5-10
4.43
3.64,
2.64
1.65
0.82
0.29
044
3.79
3.63
346
3.27
3.05
2.81
2.50
2.13
1.69
1.20
(.71
0-33
0.10
0.02
349
3.54
3-38
3.21
1.04
2.83
2.60
2.30
1.91
1-44
0.94
t)-49
0-19
7.37
7-21
645
6.56
6.22
5.113
5.33
4.69
3.88'
249
1.85
0.95
G.35
T0.0S
3.72
3.59
3.46
3-30
3-12
2.93
2.62
2.27
1.83
1.33
0.81
0.39
0.13
OA"
3-65
3-52
3.39
3.26
3.10
2.93
2.21
243
2.05
1.56
1.04
0-55
0.22
7-25
7.05
6.81,
6.60
6.31
5.96
5:51
4.91
4-12
I. 3.14
2-07
1.10
0.11
3.66
3.56
3.k5
3.32
3.16
2.96
2.71
2-38
1-96
1-.45
CM
0.47
0.17
3.59
3.5.9
3.39
3.28
3-15
3.00
2.10
2-53
2-16
1.69
1.14
0.63
0.26
0.07
7.12
6-97
6.81
6.62
6.38
6.07
5.64-
5.10
4.35
3.40
2.31
1..28
G.52
- 0.15
3.60
3-52
3-44
3.34
3-10
3.03
2.79
2.48
2.08
1.59
1.05
0.55
LI.M.
0.06
3-52
3.45
3-37
3.29
3.18
3.011$
2.87
2.62
2.27
1.81
1-27
u.72
0.31
0.09
6.95
645 -
6.7
6.614
0.62
6.17
5.81
_
5.31.
4-62
3-71
2.62
1.52
0.66
0.21
3-52
3.47
3-41
3-34
3.24
3-09
2.88
2.60
2.21
1.73
1.19
tt-67
C.21
0.08
3.43
3.38
3-33
3.27
3.12
3.06
2.93
2.71
2.41
1.98
1.43
0.85
0.30
0.13
6-.71
6.65
6.43
6.24
5.3'-
541
4.88
4.03
2.95
1.180
6-113
0.29
3.44-
3.41
3.37
3.32-
3?25
3.14
2.96
2.71
2.35
1.19
1.36
0.79
0.35
0.12
3.33
3.32
3.25
3.26
3.12
3.10
2.98
240
2.53
2.14
1.61
1-01
0.48
0.17
6.59
6.56
6.52
6.47
6.39
6.24
6.01
5.65
;AL
4.33
3.30
2.12
1.05
6.42
3.36
3.34
3:32
3-29
3-24'
3:16
3.02
240
2.46
244
1.50
0.92
0.43
Galt
3.23
3.22 ?
3.20
331
3.14
3.04
2.99
2.15
2.63
2.2-7:-
1110
3...2)
0.61
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/20: CIA-RDP81-01043R001300080002-3