PROJECTIONS 2000

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00530R000802040001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
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• Document Page Count: 146
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 11, 2013
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: March 1, 1988
• Content Type: REPORT

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U.S. Department of Labor
Bureau of Labor Statistics
March 1988
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Projections
2000
U.S. Department of Labor
Ann McLaughlin, Secretary
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Janet L. Norwooc ~
For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, DC 20402
STAT
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Preface
This bulletin presents Bureau of Labor Statistics employ-
ment projections for the yeaz 2000. Three alternative growth
patterns provide estimates of overall and sector economic
growth with consistent industry and occupational employ-
ment projections. Part I consists of five articles reprinted
from the September 1987 issue of the Monthly Labor Review.
' Part II provides a brief review of the methodology. Part III
presents the assumptions underlying the specific industry and
occupational employment estimates. The appendix provides
more detailed data frequently requested by users.
These projections aze the latest product of a program in-
itiated more than 25 yeazs ago to study alternative growth
conditions and their effects on employment by industry and
occupation. Previous economic and employment projections
in this series have been published for the yeazs 1970, 1975,
1980, 1985, 1990, and 1995. Labor force and occupational
projections have been made in BLS for a somewhat longer
period.
Although this bulletin provides extensive coverage, fur-
ther detailed data and information aze available. Data in
machine-readable form aze available from the sLS Office of
Economic Growth and Employment Projections. An order
form is provided on the last page of the bulletin for con-
venience.
Material in this publication is in the public domain
and, with appropriate credit, may be reproduced without
permission.
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Contents
Page
Part I. Economic and employment projections to 2000 ............................. 1
Overview and implications of the projections to 2000 ................ ....... 1
Economic projections to the year 2000 ............ .................... 8
Labor force .projections: 1986 to 2000 .................................. 17
Industry output and employment through the end of the century ............. 28
A look at occupational employment trends to the year 2000 ................ 44
Part II. Methods ............................................................. 82
Overview ............................................:............. 62
Labor force ............... ........................................ 64
Aggregate economy .................................................. 65
Industry final demand ................................................ 65
Input-output ............................................ .......... 67
Industry employment ................................................. 67
Occupational employment ............................................. 68
Part III. Assumptions for specific industries and .occupations ......................... 70
Industry assumptions ................................................. 70
Occupational assumptions ............................................. 79
Appendix: Supplementary data .................................................... 91
Tables:
Civilian noninstitutional population and labor force:
A -1 . By age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin, 1986 and
projected 1990-2000 ......................................... 92
A - 2 . By race, sex, age, and Hispanic origin, 1986 and
projected 1995 and 2000 ..................................... 93
Final demand by industry, 1977, 1982, 1985, and projected 2000:
B-1. Gross national product ........................................ 96
B - 2 . Personal consumption expenditures ... . ......................... 101
B - 3 . Gross private domestic investment .............................. 106
B - 4 . Exports of goods and services ................................. 111
B - 5 . Imports of goods and services ................................. 116
B - 6 . Federal Government purchases of goods and services .............. 121
B - 7 . State and local Government purchases of goods and services ........ 126
C -1 . Gross duplicated output by industry, selected years, 1972-86,
and. projected 2000 .......................................... 131
D -1 . Bureau of Labor Statistics input-output sectoring plan .............. 136
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Part I. Economic and Employment
Projections to 2000
Overview and implications
of the projections to 2000
Bureau of Labor Statistics moderate projections show
ZI million new jobs over the 1986-2000 period,
mostly in service-producing industries;
the black and Hispanic labor force is estimated
to increase much faster than that of whites
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has prepared projections of
the U.S. economy to 2000. Three alternative projections
were developed, based on a range of assumptions which
result in high, moderate, and low rates of economic growth.
The projections encompass the future demographic structure
of the labor force, economic rate of growth and composition
of demand, and industrial and occupational composition of
employment. The Bureau prepares projections biennially;
this latest outlook replaces the projections to 1995, pub-
lished in 1985. ~ This article summarizes the moderate
projections of the labor force, economic growth, and indus-
try and occupational employment, and discusses some
important implications of the projections. The four articles
that follow present the projections in considerably more
detail.
Labor force overview
According to the moderate growth projections, the labor
force is expected to expand by nearly 21 million, or 18
percent, over the 1986-2000 period. This represents a slow-
down in both the number to be added to the labor force and
in the rate of growth achieved in the previous 14-year pe-
Ronald E. Kutscher is Associate Commissioner, Office of Economic
Growth and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
riod, 1972 to 1986, when the labor force increased by al-
most 31 million, or 35 percent. The projected growth also
represents a slowing from the more recent 1979-86 period.
Consequently, the projected slower growth is a continuation
of a trend that started in the late 1970's. The rapid increases
in the past were the result of the very large baby-boom
generation (those born between 1946 and 1964) entering the
labor force, accompanied by rapid increases in women's
labor force participation rates. The recent slowdown and
that projected for the remainder of the century reflect the
entry of the smaller numbers from the "birth dearth" gener-
ation (those born over the 1965-78 period) along with the
slower rate of projected growth in the participation rates of
women. (See table 1.)
Not only is the labor force expected to continued to slow
its rate of increase over the 1986-2000 period, but it is
projected to become increasingly minority and female. For
example, the white labor force is projected to increase less
than 15 percent, while tfie black labor force is expected to
grow by nearly 29 percent, or 3.7 million workers, more
than 17 percent of the projected total labor force increase.
The Hispanic labor force is projected to grow by about
6 million, or more than 74 percent, and to account for nearly
29 percent of labor force growth over this period. The Asian
and other races group (American Indians, Alaskan Natives,
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Asians, and Pacific Islanders) is projected to grow by nearly
2.4 million, or 70 percent, and account for more than 11
percent of labor force growth. Blacks, Hispanics, and
Asians and other races are projected to account for 57 per-
cent of labor force growth; if non-Hispanic white women are
included, the combined share of future growth reaches more
than 90 percent.
Women are projected to account for 64 percent of the net
increase in the labor force-slightly more than their share of
the 1972-86 labor force growth. Consequently, by 2000,
women are expected to make up more than 47 percent of the
labor force, up from 39 percent in 1972 and 45 percent in
1986.
The age composition of the projected work force is ex-
pected to continue some of the current trends at least through
the mid-1990's, after which a number of these trends will
begin to reverse-some sharply. After the very large baby-
boom generation was born, a period of significantly lower
numbers of births prevailed until the late 1970's. From 1978
to the present, births increased (even though the birth rate
was stable or declining) as women of the baby-boom gener-
ation began having children. As a result of the fewer births
during the 1965-78 period, the number of 16-year-olds in
the population as well as in the labor force began a decline
in 1976, which is expected to continue until about 1992. The
number of 17-year-olds began a decline in about 1977 which
is expected to continue until about 1993. Each group 1 year
older is expected to follow the same pattern, but 1 year
later-for example, the number of 18-year-olds is expected
to continue to decline until about 1994.
The differing birth cohorts moving into older age groups
have two important consequences for the age composition of
the labor force. (1) By the year 2000, the share of the labor
force age 16 to 34 and over age 55 is projected to decline,
and the share of 35- to 54-year-olds is expected to increase.
(2) For some age groups in the labor force, sharp changes
are expected to take place during the 1986-2000 period. For
example, the number of
? 16- to 24-year-olds is projected to decline until the mid-
1990's, then reverse and begin to increase;
? 25- to 34-year-olds is projected to increase through the
early 1990's, then show a very sharp decline; and
? 55- to 64-year-olds is projected to decline through the
mid-1990's, then increase very rapidly.
Economic growth and structural changes
According to the moderate projections, the rate of eco-
nomic growth, as measured by real GNP, is expected to
increase by 40 percent, or 2.4 percent a year over the 1986-
2000 period. This is only slightly less than the 2.5-percent
annual growth rate over the 1972-86 period, but slightly
more than the 2.0 percent achieved over the 1979-86 pe-
riod, which included two recessions. The rate of economic
growth through the year 2000 results from an acceleration
Table 1. Civilian labor force, by sex, age, race, and
Hispanic origin, 1972-86, and moderate growth projections
2000
1Numbers in thousandst
Actual
Protected,
Change,
Gr~ h
Group
1972
1979
1986
2000
1986-2000
1986-2000
Total, 16 and older..
87,037
104,960
117,837
138,775
20,938
1.2
Men, 16 and older .....
53,556
60,727
65,423
73,136
7,713
.8
161024 ...........
11,243
13,645
12,251
.11,506
-745
-.4
25 to 54 ...........
33,133
37,926
44,406
53,024
8,618
1.3
55 and older ........
9,180
9.156
8,766
8,606
-160
-.1
Women, i6 and older ...
33,481
44,233
52,414
65,639
13,225
1.6
16 to 24 ...........
8,943
11,760
11,117
11,125
8
.0
25 to 54 ...........
19,192
26,594
35,159
47,756
12,597
2.2
55 and older ........
5,346
5,879
6,138
6,758
620
.7
White, 16 and older ....
77,275
91,922
101,801
116,701
14,900
1.0
Black, 16 and older ...
8,748
10,665
12,684
16,334
3,650
1.8
Other, 16 and olden ..
-
2,373
3,352
5,740
2,386
3.9
Hispanic origin,
16 and older .........
-
5,215
8,076
14,086
6,010
4.1
~ Includes American Indians, Alaskan Natives, Asians, and Pacific Islanders.
NorE: Detail for race and Hispanic groups may not add to total because Hispanics are
included in both the white and black population groups. Dash indicates data not available.
Souace: Historical data are from the Current Population Survey.
projected for productivity, even as the rate of labor force
growth is projected to slow. Many factors account for the
faster productivity growth incorporated in these projections:
a more mature, educated, and experienced labor force;
greater stability in projected energy prices over the 1986
2000 period than prevailed in the 1972-86 period; and more
favorable growth in the projected capital-labor ratio, in par-
ticular, aslowing of labor force growth and a somewhat
larger increase in the share of investment in producers'
durable equipment.
Changes also are projected in demand structure of cNP
over the 1986-2000 period. Among the most important are:
? Stabilization of the share of consumer durables, which
increased considerably during the 1972-86 period.
? A modest increase in the share of GNP allocated to produc-
ers' durable equipment.
? An increase in the export share of cNP, a reversal from the
trend of the 1979-86 period.
? No change in the import share of cNP, even though the
import share of cNP increased nearly 5 percentage points
over the 1972-86 period.
? A decline in the share of cNP devoted to defense expendi-
tures-a reversal of the 1979-86 trend.
? An increase in the growth rate of State and local govern-
ment spending, larger than the rate over the 1979-86
period, but not enough to halt the declining share of cNP
allocated to spending by States and localities.
On the income side of cNP, the projections show a rela-
tively constant share going to disposable personal income.
Real disposable personal income per capita is projected to
grow 1.6 percent per year, about the same as in the 1972-86
period, but more than the 1.3-percent a year gain over the
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1979-86 period. The greater growth rate reflects primarily
the projected faster rate of productivity growth.
Employment changes
Of the 21 million new jobs projected for_the 1986-2000
period, 20.1 million are expected to lie nonagricultural wage
and salary jobs, and 1.7 million ,nonagricultural self-
employed and unpaid family jobs. These gains are expected
to be offset slightly by a decline in agricultural employment.
The projected employment increase-more than 19 percent
between 1986 and 2000, or 1.3 percent ayear-represents
a slowing of employment growth, reflecting, in large part,
slower labor force growth. In terms of absolute growth,
nonagricultural wage and salary workers increased by nearly
26 million over the 1972 to 1986 period, an expansion of
almost 35 percent, or 2.2 percent a year. The projected slow-
down in employment growth is not quite so dramatic when
compared to the more recent 1979-86 period in which nona-
gricultural wage and salary jobs grew 1.5 percent a year.
By rndustry . Goods-producing industries are projected to
experience almost no change in employment over the 1986-
2000 period. Service-producing industries, therefore, will
account for nearly all of the projected growth. Among major
groups in the goods-producing industry, the projections
show increasing employment only in construction-nearly
900,000 jobs. (See table 2.) Although agriculture is pro-
jected to increase its wage and salary jobs, that increase is
expected to be more than offset by declines among the
self-employed, so that total agriculture is projected to de-
cline by more than 300,000 jobs.
Manufacturing employment is projected to decline by
more than 800,000 jobs over the 1986-2000 period. De-
clines are projected even though output is expected to in-
crease 2.3 percent a year. However, productivity in manu-
facturing is projected to grow even faster. Large job growth
is projected for both wholesale and retail trade; more than
1.5 million wage and salary jobs are expected in wholesale
trade and almost 4.9 million in retail trade. This is consistent
with the long-term trend of this industry growing the same
or slightly faster than the economy. The finance, insurance,
and real estate industry also is projected to add more than
1.6 million jobs. However, this represents a considerable
slowing in this sector when compared with the nearly 2.4
million jobs added over the previous 14 years. The service
industries will expand by more than l0 million jobs, with
health care services and business services important contrib-
utors as they continue to produce new services that greatly
add to their overall demand and employment growth. Gov-
ernment is expected to expand by about 1.6 million jobs-
nearly all at the State and local level.
Although manufacturing employment as a whole is pro-
jected to decline through 2000, many of its industries are
projected to grow, quite rapidly in some cases. It is impor-
tant to note that in 2000, manufacturing is projected to
Table 2. Employment by major sector, 1972, 1986, and
projected to 2000 low, moderate, and high alternatives
(In thousands]
Projected, 2000
Industry
1972
1986
Low
Moderate
Nigh
Total .....................
84,549
111,623
126,432
133,030
137,533
Nonfarm wage and salaryr....
73,514
99,044
113,554
119,156
123,013
Goods-producing .........
23,668
24,681
23,148
24,678
25,906
Mining ...............
628
783
672
724
779
Construction ..........
3,889
4,904
5,643
5,794
6,077
Manufacturing .........
19,151
18,994
16,833
18,160
19,050
Service-producing .......
49,646
74,363
90,406
94,478
97,107
Transportation and
public utilities ........
4,541
5,244
5,410
5,719
5,903
Wholesale trade ........
4,113
5,735
7,015
7,266
7,361
Retail trade ...........
11,835
17,845
21,795
22,702
23,079
Finance, insurance, and
real estate ..........
3,907
6,297
7,508
7,917
8,159
Servicesr .............
12,117
22,531
30,778
32,545
33,708
Government ...........
13,333
16,711
17,900
18,329
18,897
Agriculture ...............
3,523
3,252
2,784
2,917
3,009
Private households .........
1,693
1,241
1,122
1,215
1,234
Nonfarm self-employed and
unpaid family workers ....
5,819
8,086
8,972
9,742
10,277
~ Excludes sic 074, 5, 8 (agricultural services), and 99 (nonclassifiable establishments);
therefore data are not directly comparable with those from the Current Employment Survey.
provide more than 18 million wage and salary jobs, or 15.2
percent of all wage and salary employment. Generally,
manufacturing industries that are expected to experience
employment declines are those that have been declining for
years, such as basic steel, leather goods, shoes, tobacco,
some of the textile and most of the basic metal processing
industries, and many of the food processing industries. Em-
ploymentgains are expected among printing and publishing,
drugs and pharmaceutical products, computers, plastic
products, and instruments industries. Some occupations
within manufacturing are projected to grow, even as the
overall employment in manufacturing industries declines.
For example, the engineering and related occupations are
projected to increase by more than 165,000 jobs and man-
agerial jobs, by 85,000.
By occupation . Five occupational groups are projected to
experience faster than average employment growth over the
19$6-2000 period-technicians, service workers, profes-
sional workers, salesworkers, and executive and managerial
employees. (See table 3.) Only two groups-farming,
forestry, and fishing workers and private household work-
ers-are expected to have absolute declines. Three broad
occupational groups are expected to experience below-
average growth: precision production, craft, and repair
workers; administrative support workers, including clerical;
and operators, fabricators, and laborers.
When employment by major occupational group is dis-
tributed in 1986 and 2000 by the most prevalent 1986 edu-
cational level, the projections show a growth in the share of
jobs requiring most workers to have at least I year of col-
lege. The share of jobs requiring high school completion as
the predominant educational level declines slightly. How-
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ever, there is a sharper decline in the share of jobs where less
than a high school education is currently the most prevalent
educational requirement.
If projected employment growth by major occupational
group is compared with jobs currently held by blacks and
Hispanics, a disparity is shown-neither group is well rep-
resented in the fast-growing occupations and both groups
are overrepresented in the slow-growing or declining occu-
pations. When a similar analysis is done for women, a
disparity also is shown, although it is not nearly as great as
that for blacks and Hispanics. Still, women are not well
represented in some fast-growing occupations such as natu-
ral scientists and the architectural occupations.
High and low projections
The high and low alternatives show a relatively broad
band around the moderate alternative. The annual growth
rate of real crvP ranges from 1.6 percent in the low alterna-
tive to 3.0 percent in the high. For the labor force, the
difference between the low and high is nearly 6.6 million
workers in 2000. The unemployment rate in 2000 is 7.7
percent in the low alternative, 6 percent in the moderate, and
4.5 percent in the high. In 2000, the low alternative has a
level of employment, 6.6 million lower than the moderate
level; the high alternative is 4.5 million higher than .the
moderate. The employment range in 2000 is 11.1 million.
Labor force implications
A' slower growing labor force along with the changes
expected in its age, sex, and racial composition has several
important implications. For instance, the projected decline
of jobseekers age 16 to 19 offers an opportunity for lowering
the unemployment rate for a labor force group that histori-
cally has had a high rate. This is particularly true in light of
the projected large employment increases in eating and
drinking places, retail sales, and many service industries
which typically employ first-time jobseekers. As noted, the
share of labor force growth among blacks and Hispanics is
also projected to increase. These groups traditionally have
had higher unemployment rates than those for whitest which
may make the lowering of the overall unemployment rate
more difficult. This follows unless; of course, past problems
of jobs for minorities can be dealt with, including educa-
tional requirements and geographic location of jobs.
Other important implications are drawn from the changes
expected for the 20 to 24 age group, whose number is
expected to continue to decline until the late 1990's. In
addition to employers who are looking for first-time job-
seekers, many others who have a primary interest in this age
group-for example, community and 4-year colleges and
the military-will see the population from which they pri-
marily seek students and recruits shrink throughout most of
the 1986-2000 period. Also, producers of goods and serv-
ices primarily targeted at 16- to 24-year-olds, from special-
ized magazines, cassette tapes, and clothing to motorcycles
Table 3. Employment by broad occupational group, 1986
and moderate growth projections 2000
[Numbers in thousands)
Major occupational group
1986
Projected,
2000
Percent
change, -.
1986-2000
Total employment ........................
111,623
133,030
19.2
Technicians and related support workers ......
3,726
5,151
38.2
Service workers, except private household
workers ...........::................
16,555
21,962
32.7
Salesworkers ..........................
12,606
16,334
29.6
Executive, administrative, and managedal
workers .............................
10,583
13,616.
28.7
Professional workers .....................
13,538
17,192
27.0
Precision production, craft, and repair workers ..
13,924
15,590
12.0
Administrative support workers, including
clerical .............................
19,851
22,109
11.4
Operators, fabricators, and laborers .........
16,300
16,724
2.6
Private household workers ................
981
955
-2.7
Farming, forestry, and fishing workers ........
3,556
3,393
-4.6
Note: Estimates of 1986 employment, the base year for the 2000 projections, were derived
from data colleoted in the Occupational Employment Statistics Surveys.
and compact discs, can expect their market base to continue
to decline.
Considerable attention already has "been focused on a
potential shortage of workers. Often, this does not reflect an
overall lack of workers, but the declining numbers in the
younger age groups. As a result, in a number of instances,
employers have turned to other sources of workers, such as
immigrants or the recently retired.
The implications of the large baby-boom generation have-'
been widely discussed. Less well-known and, consequently,
not often discussed is the younger birth dearth group. The
maturation of the birth dearth group already has caused a
decline, first in the number of 16- to 19-year-olds in the
population and in the labor force,-and then in 20- to 24-year-
olds. In the late 1980's, that decline will extend to older
groups. Other results will likely occur from the decline in
these age groups. Because they are beyond the age for
first-time jobseekers might mean faster promotions for this
age group, as firms compete for a shrinking labor pool of
managers or skilled technicians and professionals: How-
ever, it is important to remember that this group is following
on the heels of the very large- baby-boom group, and such
scarcities may never materialize.
Immigrants are projected to account for more than 23
percent of the change in the labor force over the 1986-2000
period. Several important considerations with regard to the
large projected immigrant share of labor force growth are:
(1) to the extent they are not English-speaking, their integra-
tion into the work force is considerably more difficult,
(2) given the skill shifts which are implied by the -occupa-
tional projections, many immigrants may not possess the job
skills which are in high demand in the U.S. economy, and
(3) the geographic distribution of immigrants is more con-
centrated than that for the total labor force and, conse-
quently, may complicate immigrants' search for jobs.
The growing share of blacks and Hispanics in the pro-
jected labor force poses two important considerations. First,
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both groups historically have had higher unemployment
rates than those for whites. Thus, the opportunity for a lower
unemployment rate with the shrinkage of the youth cohort
(with its significantly higher unemployment rates) could be
negated if solutions cannot be found for the high unemploy-
ment among blacks and Hispanics. The second consider-
ation raised by the faster labor force growth for blacks and
Hispanics is the disparity between their current occupation
and the projected growth in occupational employment. Pol-
icymaking will need to focus on ensuring that all youth,
particularly minorities, are given sufficient education to
ease their entry into the job market and to equip them with
the skills needed to advance to better jobs. While education
alone is not the solution to all labor market problems, it is
clearly important in the solution. Information on future job
growth and the education and training necessary for the new
jobs are important for all labor force aspirants.
The increasingly larger role that women are projected to
play in the future labor force raises some of the same consid-
erations as those noted for blacks and Hispanics. The gap
between the male and female unemployment rates has nar-
rowed-more from an increase in the male rate than from
lowering of the female rate. While in the 1960's and 1970's,
unemployment rates for women were typically 1 to 2 per-
centage points higher than those for men, that gap has nar-
rowed in the 1980's. During the 1984-86 period, female
unemployment rates ranged from 0.2 to 0.4 percentage
points higher than those for men. However, the occupa-
tional distribution of jobs still shows some disparities, even
[hough the differences have narrowed over the last decade.
An opportunity exists for future improvements, in that an
important source of job growth over the 1986-2000 period
is professional, technical, and managerial jobs, and women
are projected to constitute more than three-fifths of net addi-
tions to the labor force.
Economic implications
Several implications can be drawn from the projected
overall economic growth and the changes expected in the
structure of demand over the 1986-2000 period. The projec-
tions call for an increase in the rate of productivity growth.
It should be noted that the projected productivity growth is
more uncertain than the projected labor force growth.
Therefore, the economic growth projections can be viewed
as having a higher degree of uncertainty. Consequently,
users should carefully examine all three projection alterna-
tives and their implications. For example, the low projection
alternative, which has a rate of real SNP growth of 1.6
percent per year over the 1986-2000 period, results from a
productivity growth rate consistent with the 1972-86 pro-
ductivity trend. One very important implication of this pro-
jected trend is that real disposable income per capita (one
measure of well-being in the economy) only increases 0.7
percent per year under this alternative, much slower than the
1.7-percent growth during the 1972-86 period, and less
than one-half the rate of increase projected in the moderate
alternative. Of course, if a faster rate of productivity in-
crease should prevail, it would be more favorable for the
economy because that is the primary factor leading to gains
in living standards of the population.
Perhaps the most significant change in trend projected in
the composition of demand for the 1986-2000 period is in
foreign bade. As a result of changes in exchange rates,
exports are projected to increase faster than imports. This is
important both to exporting industries as well as other indus-
tries which have been pressured by the very rapid growth of
imports over the last decade, in particular. However, the
extent of the slowdown in import growth and the increase in
export growth varies considerably among industries. The
projections of exports and imports are uncertain, with trends
more volatile than most other demand categories because
numerous factors in many countries influence trends for
U.S. exports and imports. Another difficulty in developing
foreign trade projections is the capacity of some U.S. indus-
tries to recover their export markets once they have been
lost-even though a significant turnaround in the value of
the dollar has occurred.
The projected shifts in the structure of demand result in
several other important relationships. The projected lack of
any growth of the younger age groups in the population and
the resulting modest slowdown in household and family
formation will affect expenditure patterns. This is most no-
ticeable in consumer durables, particularly in automobile
purchases and new housing construction. Another impact
related to demographic changes in the population is the
health care expenditures of older age groups, particularly
the expected very rapid growth between now and 2000 in the
over age 85 population-projected to increase 3.7 percent
annually, compared with 0.8 percent for the overall popula-
tion. Not only is this older group expected to keep health
care expenditures among the most rapidly growing demand
categories, but the distribution of health care purchases also
is projected to shift toward nursing homes and home health
care expenditures.
Another important change in trend included in the projec-
tions is the expected slowing of defense expenditures. Real
defense expenditures declined over the 1972-79 period, but
then reversed over the 1979-86 period and have shown an
appreciable increase of 6.2 percent a year. In these projec-
tions, defense spending is projected to slow in the late
1980's, and then gradually decline in the 1990's such that by
2000, the level of real defense expenditures is projected to
return to near the 1986 level. These projected trends are
particularly important to industries such as aircraft, mis-
siles, ships, and electronics which sell a high proportion of
their output to the U.S. Department of Defense.
Industry employment impact
Employment is projected to grow, albeit slower than it
has in the past. Most of the growth is expected among
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service-producing industries. Further employment declines
are projected for many industries including agriculture,
many mining industries, a significant number of manufac-
turing industries, and a few service industries. Conse-
quently, workers are expected to continue to be displaced.
Further, because of the geographic concentration of many of
the declining industries, some localities will be hard hit from
these displacements. Although some displaced workers may
obtain related jobs and maintain their standard of living,
others may require further training or education, or both, or
may have to relocate geographically to do so.
Some of those displaced from their jobs, of course, may
not find similar employment, given the occupational shifts
that a're projected to occur between now and 2000, particu-
larly if they lack the education and training required for the
emerging jobs. Jobs for displaced workers are a problem for
whicH'an easy solution has not been found. Although much
occupational mobility exists in this economy, it is concen-
trated primarily among the young. Thus, while it is impor-
tant that entry level workers be provided with as high a level
of education as possible, this helps little in finding the best
mechanism for providing the right mix of education and
training needed for displaced workers, particularly if those
displaced are over age 40 and have relatively low educa-
tional attainment.2
High tech employment in manufacturing is projected to
slow from the above-average growth of the past decade, as
.these industries mature and as several of them continue to
face stiff competition in foreign markets. The computer
manufacturing industry, in particular, accounted fora sig-
nificant proportion of total high tech employment growth in
the 1970's and early 1980's, but a projected slowing in this
industry's employment growth is expected to be a major
factor in the high tech future for the rest of this century.
The expected continuation of employment changes in
service-producing industries has several important implica-
tions. Firms in some of these industries are likely to be
small. Because small firms have a higher turnover rate, they
may, as a conseyuence, be less likely to provide a lifetime
employment opportunity for workers. Consequently, work-
ers will need to be prepared through education and training
for more frequent changes of employers and occupations.
Also, many smaller firms are often less able to provide other
benefits, such as health care, that large firms may provide.3
A benefit of the increasing share of employment in the
service-producing industries is that the effect of any future
business cycle downturn is likely to be moderated because
the variability of employment is lower in services than in
goods-producing industries such as manufacturing and
construction.
Another trend is developing that will, in all likelihood,
require adjustments in the future. As the work force declines
among the younger age groups and as women increasingly
seek full-time work, a conflict emerges between industries
which traditionally demand a large number of part-time
workers and the economy's ability to supply those workers.
This conflict could be resolved by these industries moving
back to providing a larger share of full-time jobs, expanding
self-service stores, or drawing older workers into the work
force. If these changes do not occur, one consequence could
be that some seekers of full-time work might be able to find
only part-time employment. Another likely implication is a
slowing, or possibly even a reversal, in the decline of aver-
age hours of work, because the share of part-time employ-
ment was the primary factor behind past declines in average
hours.
Occupational employment implications
Shifts in industry employment and changes in the staffing
patterns of industries are expected to affect the occupational
structure of employment. Generally, occupations in which
current participants have the most education are projected to
have the most rapid growth rates, even if their relative
growth is slower. Jobs are expected to continue to be avail-
able for those with only a high school education. However,
persons with less than a high school education will find it
more difficult to find ajob-particularly a job with good
pay and chances for advancement-than those with more
education. Those-with-less-education-will-~on inue=to-h~-ve~+
more-labor=market~roblems~nd-less-opportunity-forYad ;
uaneement :because~they~frequently-do-not-have~the~educa:~
tion-or:training-no~ded'to~ia apt-to~the-continuing-changes=ink
emplo-yment=resuiting~from-technology- advances-and~,.~
changes- in-..the-structure_of_demand,,_ar~d-to:the-employment ~
displacement w -ichlmay fotlow~these changes-The~fact~that~
large=n~ers=continue=to-rlrop-ont~~f-high=school _eleaiJ~?-~.~
signals-tha#-arr`important-problem remains-4~~nted out`s
earlier,-blacks`anzl=Hislsartics-are =disproporti~nat~ly =repre~~
sensed=arrj >~fhose-with-less-education=and-are`prolecte8 troy
account-for; an-increasing=sfiaro=of~workers:~Given~tfiis=trend;,,..
~the~recent=data-on declintng college enrollment'oft~tasks-ace---~
unfortunate:5 -~
Despite the faster than average employment growth for
occupations requiring at least a bachelor's degree, the sur-
plus of college graduates that began in the early 1970's is
expected to continue through the end of the century. How-
ever, the balance between supply and demand for new col-
lege graduates is expected to narrow considerably as we
enter the 1990's, partly because of the decline of college
graduates stemming from the shrinkage in college-age
population.b
Occupations that are generally filled by young workers,
such as food service, retail sales, and construction labor, are
projected to continue to generate many jobs and, as dis-
cussed earlier, the declining number of young workers could
offer the opportunity to improve the youth labor market
situation. At the same time, given the expected sharp de-
cline in the number of youths, it could also provide employ-
ment opportunities for others not often employed in those
jobs, such as those recently retired who desire some work.
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Further, this also could offer the opportunity to increase the
labor market participation of some groups such as black men
who currently have much lower labor force participation
rates than do white men of the same age.
Women arid blacks traditionally have been highly concen-
trated in certain occupations. Although some improvements
have occurred in the past decade in changing this occupa-
tional segregation, the future offers a chance for further
improvement because employment growth is projected to be
most rapid in occupations not traditionallly filled by Hispan-
ics, blacks, and, to some extent, women-and labor force
growth will be predominantly from these groups. ^
~ For the last report on the 1995 projections, see the following articles in
the November 1.985 Monthly Labor Review: Betty W. Su, "The economic
outlook to 1995: new assumptions and projections," pp. 3-16; Howard N
Fullerton, Jr., "The 1995 labor force: ass' latest projections," pp.17-25;
Valerie A. Personick, "A second look at industry output and employment
trends through 1995," pp. 26-41; and George T. Silvestri and John
Lukasiewicz, "Occupational employment projections: the 1985-95 out-
look," pp. 42-57.
2 See Displaced Workers, 1979-83, Bulletin 2240 (Bureau of Labor
Statistics, ]uly 1985). For results of 1986 surveys on displaced workers,
see the following articles in the June 1987 Monthly Labor Review: Francis
W. Horvath, "The pulse of economic change: displaced workers of 1981-
85," pp. 3-12; and Sharon P. Brown, "How often do workers receive
advance notice of layoffs?" pp. 13-17.
3 See Employee Benefit Reseazch Institute's tabulations of the May 1983
Current Population Survey.
Elementary and Secondary Education Indicators in Brief (Office of
Educational Research and Improvement, 1987).
5 Elementary and Secondary Education.
b See Trends in Education, 1975-76-1995-96 (U.S. Department. of
Education, Center for Education Statistics, 1987).
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Econon~c pro~ectlons
to the ear 2000
y
Real gross national product growth averages 2.4 percent
a year, according to moderate projections,
reflecting a slowly improving foreign trade decifit,
higher productivity, and a continued shift
to a more service-oriented. economy
NORMAN C. SAUNDERS
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has prepared projections of
the. U.S. economy to the year 2000, our first look at the
remainder of this century. The new projections, with 1986 as
tfie base historical year, update and extend the previously
published projections. ~ As with earlier projections, three
alternatives-termed moderate growth, low growth, and
high growth-were estimated. The alternatives are designed
to provide a range of estimates with variations in those assump-
tions to which the aggregate model is the most sensitive.
'The moderate-growth alternative is characterized by a
gross national product (GNP) influenced by greater produc-
tivity increase and slowing labor force growth, a moderately
tapering unemployment rate, and a slowly improving for-
eigri trade situation. In comparison, the high-growth model
has stronger overall demand, higher inflation, and lower
unemployment, but less favorable foreign trade balances;
while the low-growth version has deeper recessions, slower
productivity growth, declining government spending,, and a
higher unemployment rate. Projected real GNP growth for
the 1986-2000 period ranges between 1.6 percent for the
low-growth alternative and 3.0 percent for the high-growth
scenario, providing a spread of $t trillion in the real GNP
estimates for 2000.
By 2000, under the assumptions used by the Bureau in
developing these projections, GNP is expected to range be-
tween $4.6 trillion and $5.6 trillion (in 1982 dollars), with
disposable personal income between $3.2 trillion and $3.9
trillion. The annual employment increase ranges between
Normari C. Saunders is an economist in the Office of Economic Growth
and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
1 million persons in the low-growth scenario and 1.6 million
persons in the high-growth scenario. The unemployment
rate ranges between 4.5 percent in the high projeefioir' artd
7.7 percent in the low. The following tabulation shows the
levels and percent growth rates for selected key i;conoinic
variables, 1982-86 and projected to 2000:2
Projected, 2000
1972
1986
Low
Moderate.
High
Civilian unem-
ployment
rate .....
5.6
7.0
7.7
6.0
4.5
Federal deficit
(billions of
current
dollars) ..
-16.8
-204.0
-289.1
-89.3
-44.1
Net exports .
(billions of
1982
dollars) ..
-48.8
-149.7
-39.1
-98.6
-150:2
Annual growth rate
Projected, 2000
/972-86 Low Moderate High
Real GNP .............. 2.5 1.6 2.4 3.0
GNP implicit deflator ..... 6.6 2.3 3.4 4.9
Civilian labor force ...... 2.2 l.0 1.2 L3
Employment (from house-
hold survey).......... 2.1 .9 1.2 I.5
Rear disposable personal
income .............. 2.7 1.5 2.4 3.0
Real disposable per capita
income .............. 1.7 .7 1.6 1.9
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Projections framework
The aggregate economic projections are prepared using
the Wharton Long-Term Model of the U.S. Economy as a
starting point.; Many exogenously specified variables must
be provided to the model, but analysis has shown that a
relatively small number of these assumptions significantly
affect long-term projections.4 These variables are summa-
rized in table 1 and are discussed below.
In addition, the projections are generally approached with
certain results in mind, such as the level of the unemploy-
ment rate, the rate of growth of labor productivity, inflation,
the presence or absence of a business cycle, and the sectoral
distribution of employment.
In a change from prior ens projections, a business cycle
was assumed for the 1986-2000 projection period. Reviews
of past projection efforts have indicated that by assuming
steady uninterrupted growth in the economy, growth is
overestimated in the more volatile and cyclically sensitive
SNP components, in particular, consumer durables, produc-
ers' durable equipment, and constructions Two recessions
are assumed to occur between 1986 and 2000. This should
not be read as a prediction of a recession in any specific.
year; instead, it is a bow to the inevitability of business cycle
fluctuations and the effect the cycle has on long-term de-
mand.growth and on the distribution of demand.
Second, the unemployment rate in 2000 is assumed to be
slightly below current levels. In spite of temporary increases
in unemployment induced by the assumed business cycle
fluctuations, the moderate scenario has the unemployment
rate declining to 6 percent in 2000, down a percentage point
from the 1986 rate of 7.0 percent.
A third important modification to the model is to impose
the industry distribution of production and employment on
the aggregate projections at a major sector level to reflect the
more detailed analysis carried out at the industry level. The
aggregate projections thus provide control values to the
industry projections but are, in turn, affected by those
projections.
Underlying assumptions-moderate scenario
Many assumptions must be spelled out in very specific
terms to generate an estimate of future growth. The follow-
ing discussion focuses on the more important assumptions
underlying the moderate-growth projections.
Fiscal policy. Plans for new defense programs are ex-
pected to be gradually curtailed in the coming decade.
Projects for which appropriations have already been made or
planned are expected to keep real defense spending growing
through the end of this decade, when it is projected to peak
at $268 billion. Thereafter, smooth declines are assumed
over the remainder of the projection period, as defense
spending drops to $251 billion in 2000, roughly the same
level as in 1986.
Real nondefense purchases of goods and services are as-
sumed to drop to $78.8 billion by 1990, approximately the
1981-82 level of spending. After 1990, growth returns as
these purchases increase at a relatively smooth average an-
nual rate of 2.8 percent over the decade of the 1990's.
The realities of recent large Federal deficits bring a sense
of general fiscal conservatism to the assumptions affecting
other Federal expenditure categories. No real growth is as-
sumed during the 1986-95 period for food stamp benefits,
military retirement and veterans' benefits, .medicare pay=
menu, and Social Security benefits. Growth in .these cafe- .
gories is a combination of inflation adjustment and client
population shifts only. After 1995, some resumption of
growth in all of these benefits categories is expected-but
still only a modest 1 to 2 percent annually.
Federal subsidies are assumed to be flat in real terms
throughout the period, as are Federal grants-in-aid to State
and local governments.
On the revenue side, the Tax Simplification Act of 1986
has the initial impact of increasing effective personal. tax
rates from 10.4 percent in 1986 to 11.2 percent in 1987.
Thereafter, as taxpayers make shifts in their tax strategies,
the effective rate declines steadily over the entire projection
period, reaching 8.9 percent in 2000.
The effective corporate tax rate has increased steadily
from 27 percent in the late 1970's to its current level of 37
percent. The rate is assumed to remain at this level through
1990, followed by gradual declines to 26 percent by 2000..
The Social Security wage base and combined tax rates are
as mandated by the Social Security Act of 1978.
State and local government spending increased at an an-
nual 1.5-percent real rate between 1979 and 1986, less than
the 2-percent rate during the 1972-79 period. Slower
growth from 1979 to 1986 than from 1972 to 1979 resulted
from declining school enrollments and a general trend to-
ward slower growth in government provided services. This
pattern is expected to reverse over the next 14 years in
response to several factors.
First, the baby-boom generation has been having chil-
dren. These children, the so-called "echo," are now begin-
ning to affect school enrollments, which are already climb-
ing in the early grades. Elementary school enrollments are
expected to peak in 1996 and secondary attendance, around
2000. Over the decade of the 1990's, demand for educa-
tional services will increase as a result. However, the echo
will not affect postsecondary education until after 2000.
Further, it is expected that cutbacks or slower growth in
many State-provided services will be tempered in the com-
ing years. The net effect of these assumptions is to pull real
State and local spending up to a 2-percent annual rate of
growth, comparable with the 1972-79 period and 0.5 per-
centage points higher than the growth during the 1979-86
period.
Monetary policy. Monetary policy in the moderate-
growth projection is best described as accommodative.
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Growth of M2, the broadly defined money supply, has been
set to parallel projected growth in nominal SNP so that mon-
etary policy will not choke growth by being too restrictive,
nor re-initiate the inflationary spiral of the 1970's by being
too loose. The velocity of n-1z remains roughly constant, in
the 1.60 to 1.65 range, throughout the projection period.
Both short- and long-term interest rates remain flat in real
terms, rising about 1 percentage point over the 14-year
horizon of the projections in response to the expected rate of
increase in prices.
Demographic. The population estimates underlying the
aggregate projections are the middle-growth series devel-
oped by the Bureau of Census.6 These new population pro-
jections have been developed with higher immigration and
slightly lower birth rates than in earlier Census Bureau ef-
forts. The middle-level civilian labor force projections, de-
veloped by at,s to be consistent with the new Census Bureau
population estimates, are incorporated in the moderate-
growth aggregate projections.?
Other demographic assumptions, such as the number of
households, the number of families, and the number of
unrelated individuals, have all been derived from earlier
Census Bureau projections, modified by a1.s to reflect the
new population projections.
Foreign economic activity. World gross domestic prod-
uct, less that of the United States and centrally-planned
economies, is assumed to grow at a real annual rate of 2.6
percent over the 1986-2000 period, paralleling the perform-
ance of this measure during the 1972-86 period. Some
slowdowns are assumed for interim years in response. to
recessions in the U.S. economy, but the drop in growth is
relatively small and easily recovered in the following years.
The projections encompass an assumed annual inflation
rate of 5 percent for the same world area, slightly less than
the 5.7-percent inflation rate during the 1979-86 period and
well below the disastrously high 15.3-percent annual infla-
tion during the 1972-79 period, which was caused primarily
by rapid increases in oil prices.
In 1981, the exchange value of the dollar began a sharp
and, steady increase, culminating in 1985 with the U.S.
dollar valued almost 64 percent higher than in 1980. As a
result, imports became less expensive and flooded the
United States while the Nation's exports, now more expen-
sive, were choked out of many of their traditional foreign
markets. The dollar's exchange value dropped 22 percent in
1986. It has been assumed that the exchange rate will stabi-
lize at its 1982 level and remain steady at that level for the
remainder of the decade.
Table 1. Major assumptions affecting aggregate economic projections, 1972, 1979, 1986, and projected to 2000
iln billions, unless noted otherwise)
It
1972
979
986
Projected, 2000
8
972
1
Protected, 2000
em
1
1
em
1
979
1986
Low
Moderate
Hlgh
Low
Moderate
High
Federal Government:
Sefety, 1982 dollars ...
26.2
31.4
40.5
45.4
54.2
56.8
Defense purchases,
Other purchases,
-1982 dollars .......
185.3
164.3
251.0
222.5
251.0
263.0
1982 dollars .......
109.9
108.8
121.6
140.8
163.3
171.1
Nondeferise purchases,
Transfer payments,
1982 dollars .......
60.7
71.9
82.4
97.3
103.4
108.2
1982 dollars .......
59.1
73.2
93.4
110.3
117.3
121.5
Food stamps, 1982
Dividends, current
? dollars ............
6.5
7.7
9.6
10.4
12.2
14.9
'dollars ............
.3
2.0
6.6
7.3
7.3
7.3
Military retirement, 1982
Net interest, current
dollars ............
29.4
30.2
28.1
28.4
30.1
32.1
dollars ............
-1.5
-11.8
-26.0
-45.2
-49.6
-57.6
Medicare, 1982 dollars
18.5
37.8
57.9
75.2
83.0
94.1
Social Security, 1982
Demographic (in millions):
dollars ............
116.3
131.3
169.7
209.0
243.4
293.9
Number of families ....
52.1
59.3
63.2
73.1
73.1
74.8
Other transfers, 1982
Number of households
69.0
78.8
88.6
109.0
109.0
111.5
dollars ............
39.6
43.6
53.5
55.5
58.6
61.3
Number of unrelated
Old Age, Survivors,
individuals .........
21.4
24.4
32.2
40.4
_40.4
40.8
and Disability Insur-
Civilian labor force ....
86.6
104.9
117.9
134.5
138.8
141.1
ante taxable income,
Armed Forces ........
2.6
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.3
current dollars ......
10,800
22,900
41,500
89,700
89,700
89,700
Self-employed persons .
5.4
6.8
7.9
8.9
9.7
10.2
Old Age, Survivors,
Unpaid family workers ..
.5
.5
.3
.1
.2
.2
and Disability Insur-
Adjustment factor .....
-.9
-1.6
-1.9
-1.7
-1.9
-2.1
ante tax rate .......
9.0
12.3
14.3
15.5
15.5
15.5
Grants-in-aid, current
Foreign:
dollars ............
37.5
80.5
104.0
143.0
192.1
235.1
World gross domestic
Subsidies, current
product, 1982
dollars ............
7.9
9.2
25.6
20.2
26.1
29.4
dollars ............
5,571.9
6,946.4
7,930.1
9,082.2
11,314.2
12,836.4
Transfers to foreigners,
World gross domestic
current dollars ......
2.9
5.2
13.7
14.8
15.2
17.3
product, deflator
Ihterest to foreigners,
(1982 = 100) .......
29.5
80.0
117.6
203.6
232.6
266.0
current dollars ......
2.7
11.1
23.0
49.2
48.7
46.3
Exchange rate of the
U.S. dollar .........
132.4
131.9
103.5
97.3
97.3
97.3
State and local
Crude oil imports,
government:
million barrels
Education, 1982
per day ...........
3.1
6.5
4.8
6.3
7.6
B.5
dollars ............
146.8
165.0
178.7
195.3
223.1
232.5
Import oil price, dollars
Health and welfare,
per barrel .........
5.74
21.67
15.88
43.71
48.40
53.10
1982 dollars .......
41.8
67.9
73.7
86.3
103.4
108.2
SouacE: Historical data are from the Bureau of the Census and the Bureau of Economic Department of Energy; and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Projected data are from the Bureau of
Analysis. U.S. Department o1 Commerce; Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates, Inc.; U.S. Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Census.
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Energy. Assumptions regarding oil prices, import levels
of crude petroleum and natural gas, and domestic produc-
tion levels of crude petroleum, natural gas, and coal have
been set in accordance with projections prepared by the U.S.
Department of Energy.s These projections assume a nomi-
nal -crude oil import price of $48.40 per barrel in 2000. In
constant 1986 prices, this translates to a barrel price of
$30.90 in 2000, roughly a doubling of real imported oil
prices in the next 14 years.
Genernl assumptions. It was assumed that there would be
no major wars, oil embargoes, other major price shocks, or
serious natural catastrophes during the projection period.
Moderate growth results
Real GNP is projected to increase 2.4 percent a year be-
tween 1986 and 2000, fora 40-percent increase over the
period. This compares to the 2.5-percent. growth rate over
the 1972-86 period and the 2-percent rate over the 1979-86
period. A summary of demand growth is shown in table 2.
A change from historical behavior is reflected in the fact
that half of the projected growth in real cNP is attributable to
growth in labor productivity and half to growth in employ-
ment. During the 1972-86 period, only 28 percent of the
change in real cNP was contributed by productivity increase.
Persona! consumption. As in the past, the personal con-
sumption expenditures (Pct:) component is projected [o grow
slightly more rapidly than overall GNP, increasing its share
of cNP from 65.8 percent in 1986 to 66.4 percent by 2000.
This results largely from cuts in personal taxes over the
1987-90 period, spurring further increases in consumption.
Spending for durable goods is projected to account for a
fixed share of the consumer budget over the next decade, as
purchases of consumer electronics and the specialized furni-
ture necessary to house the new equipment grow rapidly,
offsetting expected slowdowns in auto sales.
Consumer spending for autos and parts is projected to
grow 0.9 percent a year between 1986 and 2000, down
considerably from the 4.6-percent pace over the 1979-86
period. The sluggish expansion is attributed to a slowdown
in the growth of the "new driver" population and to the two
assumed recessions over the projection horizon. Durable
consumption as a whole continues to account for just more
than I S percent of total consumer spending, unchanged
from 1986. (See table 3.)
Nondurable consumption continues to account for a
smaller share of aggregate Pce over time. Many nondurable
items, such as clothing and food, represent basic necessities
of living and, as such, are relatively income inelastic. As
family incomes rise beyond certain basic subsistence levels,
the increases tend to be spent more on luxury items than on
the basic necessities. '
Nondurables accounted for 38.2 percent of real consump-
tion in 1979, dropped to a 36.1-percent share by 1986, and
Table 2. Gross national product by major demand
categories, 1972, 1979, 1986, and projected to 2000
(Billions of 1982 dollars(
Projected, 2000
Item
1972
1979
1986
Low
Moderate
High
Gross national product
2,608.5
3,192.4
3,678.5
4,617.5
5,161.4
5,552.4
Personal consumption ...
1,621.9
2,004.4
2,418.7
3,101.2
3,429.4
3,659.7
Durables ............
200.4
266.5
368.9
472.9
527.2
589.0
Nondurables .........
665.5
766.6
872.4
1,038.3
1,116.4
1,204.6
Services ............
756.0
971.2
1,177.4
1,590.0
1,785.9
1,866.1
Gross private domestic
investment ........
465.4
575.2
659.7
767.8
932.1
1,103.2
Equipment ..........
167.5
258.8
320.3
424.8
504.2
560.8
Structures ...........
109.5
130.6
134.7
146.5
196.8
224.6
Residential..........
166.6
170.8
193.9
190.9
202.1
279.6
Inventory change .....
21.8
15.0
10.8
5.6
27.0
38.2
Exports ..............
195.2
356.8
371.3
516.8
634.5
712.0
Imports ..............
244.6
353.2
521.0
555.9
733.0
862.2
Federal Government ....
246.0
236.2
333.4
319.8
354.4
371.2
Defense ............
185.3
164.3
251.0
222.5
251.0
263.0
Nondefense .........
60.7
71.9
82.4
97.3
103.4
108.2.
State and local
government .........
.324.7
373.0
414.5
467.8
544.0
568.6
Percent distribution
Gross national product
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Personal consumption ..
62.2
62.8
65.8
67.2
66.4
65.9
Durables ............
7.7
8.3
10.0-
10.2
102
10.6
Nondurables .........
25.5
24.0
23.7
22.5
21.6
21.7
Services ............
29.0
30.4
32.0
34.4
34.6
33.6
Gross private domestic
investment ........
17.8
18.0
17.9
16.6
18.1
19.9
Equipment ..........
6.4
8.1
8.7
9.2
9.8
10.1
Structures ...........
42
4:1
3.7
3.2
3.9
4.0
Residential..........
6.2
5.4
5.3
4.1
3.9
5.0
Inventory change ....
8
5
3
1
5
7
Exports ..............
7.5
11.2
10.1
11.2
12.3
12.8
Imports ..............
9.4
11.1
14.2
12.0
14.2
15.5
Federal Government ....
9.4
7.4
9.6
6.9
6.9
6.7
Defense ............
7.1
5.2
6.8
4.8
4.9
4.7
Nondefense .........
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.9
State and local
government .........
12.4
11.7
11.3
10.1
10.5
10.2
Average annual rate of growth (in percent)
1972-
1979-
1972-
1986-2000
79
~
~
Low
Moderate
High
Gross national product
2.9
2.0
2.5
1.6
2.4
3.0
Personal consumption ..
3.1
2.7
2.9
1.8
2.5
3.0
Durables ............
4.2
4.8
4.5
1.8
2.6
3.4
Nondurables .........
2.0
1.9
2.0
1.2
1.8
2.3
Services ............
3.6
2.8
3.2
2.2
3.0
3.3
Gross private domestic
investment ........
3.1
2.0
2.5
1.1
2.5
3.7
Equipment ..........
6.4
3.1
4.7
2.0
3.3
4.1
Structures ...........
2.5
.4
1.5
.6
2.8
3.7
Residential..........
8
1.8
1.3
-.1
.4
2.6
Inventory change ....
-5.2
-4.6
-4.9
-5.1
5.0
9.3
Exports ..............
9.0
.6
4.7
2.4
3.9
4.8
Imports ..............
5.4
5.7
5.5
.5
2.5
3.7
Federal Government ...
-.6
5.0
2.2
-.3
.4
.8
Defense ............
=1.7
6.2
2.2
-.9
0
.3
Nondefense .........
2.4
2.0
2.2
1.2
1.6
2.0
State and local
government .........
2.0
1.5
1.8
.9
2.0
2.3
Souace: Historical data are from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of
Commerce. Projected data are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
are projected to account for just 32.6 percent by 2000. All
of the major nondurable subcategories decline in share terms
except for other nondurables, which include purchases of
cleaning products and toiletry articles, drug preparations,
paper products, and a long list of other nondurable house-
hold items. Strong growth in the purchases of cleaning items
and drug preparations raise the other nondurables category
to a 7.1-percent share of total Pce in 2000, up from a 6.3-
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percent share in 1986, and reversing a slowing trend appar-
ent over the 1970's and early 1980'x. (See table 3.)
Because of slowing growth in auto sales, more efficient
engines, and the general energy conservation awareness of the
1980'x, real spending on gasoline and oil is expected to remain
virtually unchanged in real terms over the projection horizon.
Purchases of consumer services are projected to grow
quite strongly over the 1986-2000 period, increasing from
48.7 percent of total consumption in 1986 to 52.1 percent in
2000. Spending for housing, household operation, and
transportation will remain a virtually fixed share of con-
sumption during this period. All of the share growth occurs
in health and other consumer services, which covers a range
of recreational, social, educational, personal, and profes-
sional activities.
Health services are projected to grow at a real rate of 3.5
percent a year, increasing their share of overall consumption to
10.8 percent in 2000 from 9.5 percent in 1986. This is
attributable to both the generally aging population and the
expected continued development of new, but increasingly more
expensive, medical procedures. Very sharp increases are ex-
pected in spending for a variety of consumer entertainment-
legitimate theater, commercial sporting events, and health
clubs and spas, to name a few. Also expected to grow faster
than average is personal spending on all types of financial
services, as the level of sophistication with which consumers
approach money management continues to increase.
Investment. Although PcE still accounts for the lion's
share of cNP, the moderate projections are also characterized
by strong, sustained growth in business fixed investment.
Purchases of producers' durable equipment are expected to
increase at an annual real rate of 2.5 percent over the projec-
tion period, or about $19 billion each year.
Although off sharply during both of the assumed reces-
sionary periods, purchases of producers' durable equipment
are expected to recover strongly from both downturns and to
grow more rapidly than overall cr1P during the recovery
years. Producers' durable equipment will continue the trend
evident in the late 1970's and early 1980's in which it
accounted for an increasing share of real SNP. This upward
shift principally reflects slowing growth in the sector-level
user cost of capital. Declining corporate tax rates, lower
inflation, and lower long-term interest rates all serve to
make the expected stream of services from current invest-
ment relatively less expensive than during the 1970's and
1980'x, thus leading to more rapid growth in capital accu-
mulation over the projection period. Equipment purchases
accounted for 8.7 percent of cNP in 1986 and are expected
to account for more than 10 percent by 2000.
By major consuming sector, the most rapid growth in
spending for equipment is projected for durable manufactur-
ing and communications, both expected to spend at a real
rate of 4.5 percent between 1986 and 2000. The slowest
growth sectors are transportation (0.8-percent annual
Table 3. Durable, nondurable, and services consumption
in 1972, 1979, 1986, and projected to 2000
Level (billions of 1982 dollars)
Percent distribution
Item
1972
1979
1986
Projected,
1972
1979
1986
Protected,
zttoo
zooo
Durable consumption .
$200.4
$266.5
$368.9
$527.2
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Autos and parts ..
98.3
119.4
164.0
187.0
49.1
44.8
44.6
35.5
Household furniture .
70.2
97.1
140.3
226.3
35.0
36.4
38.0
42.9
Other durables ....
31.8
50.1
64.5
113.9
15.9
18.8
17.4
21.6
Nondurable
consumption .....
665.5
766.3
872.4
1,116.4
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Food and beverages
344.2
387.5
440.7
541.6
51.7
50.6
50.5
48.5
Clothing and shoes .
80.3
112.1
155.5
201.3
12.1
14.6
17.8
18.0
Gasoline and oil ..
87.0
97.1
105.2
105.8
13.1
12.7
12.1
9.5
Fuel oil and coal ...
28.6
26.2
18.7
24.4
4.3
3.4
2.1
2.2
Other nondurables
125.3
143.7
152.3
243.2
18.8
18.8
17.5
21.8
Services consumption
756.0
971.2
,177.4
1,785.9
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Housing .........
235.5
304.1
351.4
510.9
31.2
31.3
29.8
28.6.
Household operation
108.6
138.3
150.7
218.4
14.4
14.2
12.8
12.2
Transportation ....
66.0
82.9
85.0
118.4
8.7
8.5
7.2
6.6
Health .........
136.0
192.2
.229.6
371.7
18.0
19.8
19.5
20.8
Other services ....
210.0
253.7
360.5
566.5
27.8
26.1
30.6
31.7
growth) and agriculture and public utilities (both exhibiting
2.5-percent annual growth). Nondurable manufacturing in-
dustries are expected to buy new equipment at a 3.5-percent
rate of increase, not as fast as the growth of equipment
purchases by durable goods producers, but still above the
overall average growth rate for this component of demand.
Almost one-fifth of the total expenditures for producers'
durable equipment is expected to be for computers, the
largest single item of all the equipment commodities. Heavy
investment in factory automation and robotics also leads to
large purchases of certain types of industrial machinery,
particularly metalworking machinery and material moving
equipment, and of scientific and controlling devices. Com-
munications equipment is projected to be the most rapidly
growing, and the third largest producers' durable equipment
purchase, as the demand for telecommunications services
leads to high levels of spending on satellites and other coln-
munications equipment. Investment demand for motor vehi-
cles, including trucks, is projected to grow more slowly than
total equipment spending, but will still rank second in terms
of overall levels.
Overall capital accumulation accelArates throughout the
projection period in most sectors of the economy, leading to
strong growth in labor productivity, especially in the manu-
facturing industries.
A recovery from the commercial building glut of the late
1970's and early 1980's is also projected, as investment in
nonresidential structures increases 2.8 percent each year
between 1986 and 2000, up sharply from the 0.4-percent
annual growth in the 1979-86 period.
Residential construction is expected to slow over the next
14 years, growing at an average real rate of 0.4 percent
between 1986 and 2000. As with autos, the slowdown is
determined by both cyclical and demographic factors, as the
formation of new households is projected to slow dramati-
cally during the 1990'x, pulling down the level of housing
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starts over the projection period. The aging of the popula-
tion, particularly among those of retirement age, is expected
to increase demand for multi-unit starts relative to single-
unit starts.
h'oreign trade. The. sharp.reduction in the exchange value
of the dollar seen in 1986 is assumed to continue until 1990,
but at a much slower rate. This drop in the value of the
dollar, accompanied by relatively robust assumptions re-
garding foreign economic growth, leads to almost 4-percent
annual real growth projected for exports of goods and services
between 1986 and 2000. Although substantially better than
export performance in the early 1980's, the dramatic im-
provement in exports expected by many economic analysts
in response to declining dollar values fails to materialize in
the projections because of changes in foreign markets and i`n
U.S. industries during the period of reduced export trade.
Many of the countries which, during the 1960's and
1970's, maintained large agricultural import balances with
the United States have now not only developed the capabil-
ity to feed their own populations from within but are, quite
often, becoming net agricultural exporters. It is unlikely,
therefore, that the United States has any chance of replicat-
ing the past booms in agricultural exports.
Many export markets in less-developed countries were
also lost during the early 1980's. However, now that U.S.
exports are again becoming price-competitive, many of
these countries are facing serious debt problems, effectively
locking them out of foreign markets.
Most significantly, however, a large number of already
vulnerable industries, such as farm and garden equipment,
engines, turbines, and generators, and -other nonelectrical
machinery producers, were hit hard by the strong dollar of
the early 1980's, forcing them to shrink at an accelerated
pace and making it highly unlikely at this point that they will
be able to respond as strongly as in past periods to increasing
foreign demand. (See table 4 for exports by major end-use
categories. )
Imports, in contrast, -are expected to grow much less
rapidly; as the value of the dollar is assumed to decline. Tn~
slowdown in import growth due to financial considerations
is, however; at least partially offset as softening oil prices are
assumed to lead to major reductions in domestic exploration for
and production of crude petroleum and natural gas. As the
demand for primary and secondary energy products continues
to expand over the 1990's, it is assumed that the shortfall in
domestic production is made up entirely from imports.
As a result, the grave trade imbalances of the mid-1980's
improve substantially over the projection period, but are not
fully resolved. The real net export balance is expected to
decline slowly to $99 billion in 2000. (See table 4 for im-
ports by major end-use categories.) The drop in auto imports
reflects the assumption that the dollar's decline will result in
less competitive prices for foreign cars and in more foreign
automakers setting up factories in the United States.
Table 4. Exports and imports by major end-use cate-
gories, 1972, 1986, and projected to 2000
iln billions of 1982 dollars)
Annual growth rete
Protected
(ln percent)
ttem
1972
1986
,
2000
Pro acted,
1972-86
1986-2000
Total exports .......
$195.2
$371.3
$634.5
4.7
3.9
Merchandise ......
131.3
237.5
416.4
4.3
4.1
food, feed, and
beverages ....
16.3
25.7
51.6
3.3
5.1
Consumer goods .
7.5
13.9
22.8
4.5
3.6
Industrial supplies
39.5
62.1
96.8
3.3
3.2
Capital goods ...
39.7
90.1
167.3
6.0
4.5
Autos and parts ..
17.0
21.1
26.0
1.6
1.6
Other merchandise
11.3
24.7
51.8
5.7
5.3
Services .........
64.0
133.8
218.1
5.4
3.6
Factor income ...
33.9
76.9
134.3
6.0
4.1
Military sales ....
3.1
8.1
5.4
7.1
-2.9
Other services ...
27.0
46.1
78.3
3.9
3.9
Total imports .......
244.6
521.0
733.0
5.5
2.5
Merchandise ......
190.7
420.4
.563.8
5.8
2.1
Food, feed, and
beverages ....
17.4
23.1
30.0
2.0
1.9
Consumer goods .
25.4
73.6
111.2
7.9
3.0
Industrial supplies
46.9
73.9
86.5
3.3
1.1
Petroleum products
56.0
75.9
122.1
2.2
3.5
Capital goods ...
10.9
90.9
111.7
16.4
1.5
Aulos and parts ..
26.6
66.7
56.5
6.8
-1.2
Other merchandise
7.7
16.2
45.8
5.5
7.7
Services .........
53.9
100.7
169.2
4.6
3.8
Faclor income ...
11.1
44.2
80.1
11.1
4.3
Defense purchases
4.8
10.6
16.2
4.8
3.1
Other services ...
38.9
44.5
72.9
1.0
3.6
Govert~trtent`_As_a whole_,_government_purchases of goody ^-~
sand-services. are .expected. to-account for a~mal7ec_share_ ofd
~stvP-over~titrte=~=droppm" g from a most 2-1_percen~ of~~itt_
'~1~486-to`-1-_7_:4-percent-by_20.OO:~VIos~ of the declining share
is accounted for by Federal Government spending slow-
downs. Defense spending is expected to account for 4.8
percent of cNP in 2000, down from a share of almost 7
percent in 1986, while nondefense spending .drops off
slightly in importance, from 2.2 percent of GNP in 1986 to
1.9 percent in 2000.
Other Federal expenditure categories are also projected to
account .for a declining share of GNP during the next 14
years, as shown in the following tabulation:
Projected,
1972
1986
2000
Total Federal expenditures ..
20.5
24.5
20.5
Goods and services ......
8.7
8.7
6.7
Transfer payments .......
6:9
9.1
8.9
Net interest ............
1.2
3.2
2.5
Other spending .........
3.7
3.1
2.3
Total Federal receipts ......
19.1
19.6
19.6
Personal taxes ..........
8.9
8.6
7.3
Corporate [axes .........
3.0
2.0
2.1
Indirect business taxes ...
1.6
1.2
1.4
Social insurance
contributions .........
1.6
7.8
8.7
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Federal receipts are expected to account for a fixed share
of ctvp, just under 20 percent. The burden is expected to
shift, however, as personal, cotporate, and indirect business
taxes together account for 55.4 percent of total Federal
revenues in 2000, down from the 60.2 percent accounted for
by these three tax categories in 1986. The burden is shifted
to social insurance contributions, which are expected to
account for almost 45 percent of Federal tax collections in
2000 (up from 39.8 percent in 1986), and by the early
1990's are expected to become a more important source of
Federal revenues than personal income taxes.
The net effect of these changes is that, in the st,s projec-
tions, agradually shrinking deficit results, declining from
$204 billion in 1986 (4.9 percent of ctvP) to $85.6 billion in
2000 (0.9 percent of ctvP).
As the following tabulation shows, State and local spend-
ing is up slightly in share terms, as increasing demand for
educational services in the mid- to late 1990's temporarily
expands government educational shares, which are offset-
ting slower growth elsewhere:
Projected,
1972
1986
2000
Total State and local
expenditures ............
13.7
13.3
14.4
Goods and services ......
11.9
11.8
12.9
Other spending .........
1.8
1.5
1.5
Total State and local
receipts ...........:....
14.8
14.7
15.0
Personal taxes ..........
2.8
3.6
3.7
Corporate taxes .........
.4
.5
.5
Indirect business taxes ...
7.5
7.0
7.3
Social insurance
contributions .........
.9
1.1
1.4
Grants-in-aid ...........
3.1
2.5
2.0
/nflation. The rate of growth of prices, as reflected by the
implicit SNP deflator, is projected to moderate from the
1972-86 pace of 6.6 percent to a 3.5-percent rate over the
1986-2000 period. As noted earlier, monetary policy has
been assumed that will be stimulative to growth without
providing enough pressure to re-ignite the inflationary spiral
of the 1970's.
Labor productivity. Productivity, represented in the
model and in these projections by real cNP per employee,
increased at a dismal rate of 0.3 percent each year between
1972 and 1979. During the next 7 years, productivity fared
only slightly better, growing at an average rate of 0.5 per-
cent between 1979 and 1986. Sustained growth in invest-
ment and the movement of much of the labor force into
prime working-age years is expected to cause a modest
recovery in labor productivity. crvP per employee is pro-
jected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent
between 1986 and 2000.y
Productivity growth in the manufacturing sector is pro-
jected to be much more robust than for the economy as a
whole, continuing a historical trend that has been especially
pronounced in recent years. Capital investment in factory
automation, continued energy substitution, contracting out,
restructuring of inefficient operations, and other factors
noted over the 1986 to 2000 period are expected to continue
to contribute to high growth in manufacturing productivity.
Employment. Between 1979 and 1986, civilian household
employment expanded at an annual average rate of 1.5 per-
cent, or about 1.5 million persons. This was just slightly
lower than the rate of increase in the civilian labor force over
the same period. Employment is projected to increase by
just under 21 million persons between 1986 and 2000, an
annual average increase of almost 1.5 million employed
persons. The civilian unemployment rate, at 7 percent in
1986, is expected to reach 6 percent in the year 2000. (See
table 5.)
/ncome. No particular surprises are projected for income
distributions over the decade of the 1990's. Personal income
accounts for virtually the same share of ctvP in the year 2000
as in 1986. Disposable personal income, in contrast; ac-
counts for a slightly greater share of cNP in 2000 than in
1986, because of the declines in effective personal tax rates
as a result of tax changes enacted in 1986.
Real per capita disposable income is expected to reach
$13,421 by 2000, reflecting a continuation of the rate of
increase noted over the 1972-86 period, but a resurgence
from the slower growth this measure experienced between
1979 and 1986. The personal savings rate is projected to
Table 5. Labor force, employment, and labor productivity
1972, 1979, 1986 and projected to 2000
[In millions, unless noted otherwise)
Civilian labor force ...... .
Civilian employment (from
household survey) .... .
Unemployed ...........
Unemployment rate
(percent) ...........
Nonagricultural establish?
ment employment ..... .
cNa per employee (thousands
of 1982 dollars) ....... .
Civilian labor force ...... .
Civilian employment (from
household survey) . .
Nonagricultural establish-
ment employment ..... .
GNa per employee (thousands
of 1982 dollars) ....... .
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Table 6. Gross national product as income, 1972, 1979,
1988, and projected to 2000
(Billions of current dollars, except where noted]
2000
Item
1972
1979
1986
how
Moderate
Hlgh
Gross national product ..
1,212.8
2,508.2
4,208.5
7,312.4
9,455.0
12,637.5
Net national product ....
1,104.8
2,242.2
3,753.4
6,722.7
8,710.7
11,587.9
National income .......
994.1
2,047.3
3,387.4
5,993.3
7,852.8
10,482.5
Compensation .....
726.2
1,491.2
2,498.3
4,661.9
5,676.0
7,530.3
Proprietors' income ...
98.3
191.9
278.9
407.5
602.5
833.3
Rental income .....
17.9
5.6
15.6
59.0
61.7
36.9
Corporate profits .....
100.7
200.1
299.7
579.3
791.4
1,097.2
Net interest income ...
51.0
158.3
294.9
708.3
721.2
984.7
Personal income ..
981.6
2,034.0
3,487.0
5,961.2
7,752.1
10,433.3
Disposable personal
income ..........
839.6
1,729.3
2,973.7
5,178.9
6,705.6
8,908.2
Billions of 1982 dollars
1,794.4
2,212.6
2,603.7
3,218.8
3,626.1
3,938.1
Per capita, current
.dollars ..........:
4,000.0
7,628.0
12,312.0
19,168.0
24,819.0
31,782.0
Per capita, 1982
dollars ...........
8,562.0
9,829.0
10,780.0
11,914.0
13,421.0
14,050.0
Percent distribution
Gross national product ..
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Net national product ....
91.1
89.4
89.2
91.9
92.1
$1.7
National income .......
82.0
81.6
80.5
82.0
83.1
82.9
Compensation .....
59.9
59.5
59.4
63.8
60.0
59.6
Proprietors' income ...
8.1
7.7
6.6
5.6
6.4
6.6
Rental income .....
1.5
.2
.4
.8
.7
.3
Corporate profits .....
8.3
7.6
7.1
7.9
8.4
8.7
Net interest income ...
4.2
6.3
7.0
9.7
7.6
7.8
Personal income .....
80.9
81.1
82.9
81.5
82.0
82.6
Disposal personal
income ............
69.2
68.9
70.7
70.8
70.9
70.5
Average annual rate of change fin percent)
leas-2ooo
1972-79
1979-86
1972-86
Low
Moderate
High
Gross national product ..
10.9
7.7
9.3
4.0
6.0
8.2
Net national product ....
10.6
7.6
9.1
4.3
6.2
8.4
National income .......
10.9
7.5
9.2
4.2
6.2
8.4
Compensation .....
10.8
7.6
9.2
4.6
6.0
8.2
Proprietors' Income ...
10.0
5.5
7.7
2.7
5.7
8.1
Rental income .....
-15.3
15.8
-1.0
10.0
10.3
6.3
Corporate profits .....
10.3
5.9
8.1
4.8
7.2
9.7
Net interest income
17.6
9.3
13.4
6.5
6.6
9.0
Personal income .. ..
11.0
8.0
9.5
3.9
5.9
8.1
Disposable personal
income ..........
10.9
8.1
9.5
4.0
6.0
8.2
Billions of 1982 dollars.
3.0
2.4
2.7
1.5
2.4
3.0
Per capita, current
dollars ...........
9.8
7.0
8.4
3.2
5.1
7.0
Per capita, 1982
dollars ...........
2.0
1.3
1.7
.7
i.6
1.9
SouRCe: Historical data are from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of
Commerce. Projected data are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
range between 3.7 percent and 6.0 percent over the 1986-
2000 period, generally higher than the 1986 rate of 3.9
percent.
IN SUMMARY, the moderate-growth scenario describes a
growing economy characterized by a slowly improving Fed-
eral deficit, a return to higher productivity growth, and a
continuation of the shift to a more service-oriented econ-
omy. The most pervasive problem facing the U.S. economy
over the next decade will be our chronic trade deficit. Re-
ductions in the value of the dollar are seen as only the first
step necessary to forge a recovery from the current wide
trade gap.
High and low scenarios
A high- and aloes-growth scenario, providing bounds
around the moderate-growth aggregate projection, have
been estimated based on differing sets of assumptions out-
lined in table 1.
The low-growth projection was designed primarily to pro-
vide ascenario over the decade of the 1990's in which many
current problems persist without much improvement. Labor
productivity is assumed to grow at the same rate as it did
during the 1972-86 period-0.7 percent annually. Com-
bined with an assumption of deeper recessions and relatively
sluggish recoveries, this leads to a real ctvP almost $550
billion lower in 2000 than in the moderate projection, with
employment lower by 6.3 million.
The high-growth projection, on the contrary, assumes
labor productivity growth of 1.5 percent each year between
1986 and 2000, only minor slowdowns in cNP increase, and
strong, sustained recoveries in other years, resulting in a GNP
of $5.6 trillion in 2000, almost $500 billion higher than in
the moderate projection. The sustained growth leads to an
unemployment rate of 4.5 percent in 2000, implying 4.1
million more employed persons that year than in the moder-
ate projection.
The two alternatives encompass a $935 billion spread in
real GNP, a 6.3 million difference in. the civilian labor force,
and a 10.4 million range in the number of employed per-
sons. Major results of the alternatives, compared with the
moderate-growth projection, are as follows:
Annual rate of growth, 1986-2000
Low Moderate High
Real cr1P ............ 1.6 2.4 3.0
GNP implicit deflator ... 3.3 3.5 5.0
Civilian labor force .... l.0 1.2 1.3
Employment (from house-
hold survey) ........ .9 1.2 I.5
GNP per employee ..... .7 1.2 I.5
Major demand category summaries are provided in table 2,
employment summaries in table 5, and income comparisons
in table 6.
Underlying assumptions. Federal Government expendi-
tures are higher in the high-trend and lower in the low-trend
alternatives than in the base projections. Conversely, spend-
ing as a share of nominal crtP shows the opposite relation-
ship: high-trend government spending accounts for a smaller
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proportion of cNP and low-growth government spending a
higher proportion of cNP than in the base projection. The
following tabulation shows projected Federal spending in
200, total and as a share of GNP:
Billions of
current dollars
Share of GNP
(in percent)
Federal spending .
Low
$1,588.0
High
$2,549.8
Low
21.8
High
20.3
Goods .......
491.3
827.8
6.8
6.6
Transfers ....
651.3
1179.4
9:0
9.4
Other .......
445.4
542.6
6.0
4.3
In other words, faster or slower GNP growth in the alter-
natives is attributed, not to fiscal stimulus; but to other
causes, primarily the wide range of productivity growth
assumptions. '
Higher rates of inflation, combined through the tax sys-
tem with higher private incomes, yield much higher Federal
revenues in the high-trend projection, resulting in a bal-
anced Federal budget in 2000. The opposite effect is appar-
ent in the low-trend projection, resulting in a Federal deficit
of $289 billion in the year 2000.
In the low-growth projection, the same population levels
are assumed as in the moderate-growth scenario, but an
assumption of a lower labor force participation rate results
in slower labor force growth. Alternatively, the high-growth
scenario assumes a participation rate identical to the
moderate-growth projection, but assumes a larger popula-
tion, resulting from a more rapid than expected influx of
immigrants, both documented and undocumented.
A projected unemployment rate of 7.7 percent in 2000 for
the low-growth alternative leads to employment levels 6.3
million lower than in the moderate-growth projection. Con-
versely, in the high-growth scenario, an unemployment rate
of 4.5 percent, combined with the larger labor force, yields
employment higher by 4.1 million in 2000. Thus, the pro-
jections allow. for a range of possible employment levels in
the year 2000 of 10.4 million.
Sluggish foreign economic growth combined. with lower'
world inflation serves to dampen exports .somewhat 'in the`
low-growth alterriatiye. However, imports drop off even
more sharply in this alternative in response to lower cNP
growth'in the United States, leading to a much improved
foreign trade balance.
Faster cNP growth in the high alternative elicits far greater
import levels. Correspondingly higher rates of foreign eco=
nomic growth have a much smaller effect on exports, lead-
ing to a steadily deteriorating trade balance in the high-
growth projection.
~ For previous projection articles, see the November 1985 issue of the
iYlonthh~ Labor Review.
z In this tabulation, and elsewhere in the article, labor productivity is
represented by real gross national product per employee. It is important to
note that this measure of productivity is not comparable with those devel-
oped within the Office of Productivity and Technology, Bureau of Labor
Statistics. For the definitions of labor productivity, multifactor productiv-
ity, and other related measures, and their historical data series, see the
Current Labor Statistics sections of the Review.
;The Wharton model was selected from the commercial models offered
to the Bureau on the basis of a competitive procurement and should not be
deemed either more or less suitable, on a theoretical basis, than the other
models considered in the procurement action. A detailed description of the
Wharton model is provided in Long-Term Model Structure and Specifica-
tion (Philadelphia, Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates, 1982). A
concise statement of ups' overall projection methodology is contained in
Employment Projections for 1995: Data and Methods, Bulletin 2253 (Bu-
reau of Labor Statistics, 1986).
4 For a detailed description of the analysis and results of this study, see
Norman C. Saunders, "Sensitivity of ass economic projections to exoge-
nous variables," Mauhly Labor Review, December 1986, pp. 23-29.
s As part of an ongoing effort to improve the projection methods and
results, the sus has evaluated the accuracy of earlier projection estimates.
See the following Monthh~ Labor Review articles: John Tschetter, "An
evaluation of at.s' projections of 1980 industry employment," August
1984, pp. 12-22; Howard N Fullerton, Jr., "How accurate were the 1980
labor force projections'?"July 1982, pp. IS-21; and Max Carey and Kevin
Kasunic, "Evaluating the 1980 projections of occupational employment,"
July 1982, pp. 22-30. Analyses of the various projections for 1985 pub-
lished by et.s are being prepared.
6 See Projections of the Population of the United States, 1987 to 2080,
Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1018 (Bureau of Census,
forthcoming).
~ See Howard N Fullerton, Jr., "Labor force projections: 1986 to 2000,"
Monthly Labor Review, September 1987, pp. 19-29.
8 See Annual Energy Outlook 1986 (U.S. Department of Energy, 1987).
The Energy Department publishes each year a range of alternative energy
scenarios. Scenarios consistent with the aLS estimates of crtP and inflation
were chosen to fill in the energy assumptions.
9 Based on historical relationships between cNr and the private business
sector, the Office of Productivity and Technology, Bureau of Labor Statis-
tics, has adjusted the projected 1986-2000 "cNP per employee" growth rate
of 1.2 percent to "business sector output per employee" and "output per
hour" estimates. The adjusted rates of growth, placed in a historical per-
spective, are as follow:
Per hour
Per employee
1948-73 ....................... 2.9
2.5
1973-86 ....................... .9
.4
1973-79
.....................
.6
.1
1979-86
.....................
I.0
.7
1986-2000
.....................
1.6
1.2 to
1.3
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Labor force projections:
1986 to 2000
According to BLS projections, there will be
139 million persons in the 2000 labor force,
representing a slowdown in the rate of growth after 1986;
because of population or participation growth rates,
blacks, Hispanics, and Asians and others are expected
to increase their representation in the labor pool
HOWARD N FULLERTON, JR.
The labor force is projected by the Bureau of Labor Statis-
tics to be 139 million persons in the year 2000. This repre-
sents growth of 21 million persons between 1986 to 2000 in
the moderate of three alternative labor force projections;
well below the 31 million added to the labor force between
1972 and 1986. The projected growth rate of 1.2 percent
annually is less than the 2.2-percent annual rate over the
1972-86 period. (See table 1. )
Some trends in the labor force projections-the expected
growth in the share of women in the labor force and the drop
in the share of workers 55 and older-are the result of
anticipated changes in participation rates. Women were only
39 percent of the labor force as recently as 1972; by 2000,
they are projected to be 47 percent. The older population,
which is. growing as a share of the overall population, is
projected to have lower labor force participation rates in
2000 and, as a consequence, a smaller share of the labor
force. (See table 2.)
Other changes expected between 1986 and 2000 reflect
underlying population changes. The proportion of youths
(those 16 to 24 years) dropped from 23 percent of the labor
force in 1972 to 20 percent in 1986 and is projected to fall
Howard N Fullerton, Jr. is a demographic statistician in the Office of Economic
Growth and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
further to 16 percent by 2000. The drop in the youth share
of the labor force for the 1972-86 period reflects. the end of
the entry of the baby-boomers, while the projected drop
reflects the lower numbers of births in the 1970's. Blacks,
who were 10 percent of the labor force in 1972 and 11
percent in 1986, are projected to be 12 percent by 2000. The
increased share of the labor force for blacks results from
their population growth. Hispanics also are projected to
increase their share of the labor force from 7 percent in 1986
to 10 percent by 2000, reflecting both population and panic-
ipation growth. Asians and others are projected to increase
their labor force share from 3 percent in 1986 to 4 percent
in 2000, as the result of rapid population increase. ~
This article presents BLS' first look at the 2000 labor
force.2 The alternative labor force projections are presented
by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin. They are based on the
Bureau of Census middle population projection and BLs
projections of future trends in labor force participation.-
Components of labor force projections
Population . There are two major factors that determine
labor force growth: changes in population and in labor force
participation rates. The process of making projections is not
exact; to indicate the possible range of uncertainty, BLS (and
the Census Bureau) prepares alternative projections.4 Labor
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force participation rate projections were prepared for three
racial groups and independently for Hispanics by sex and
age.5
To prepare population projections, assumptions about the
future paths of births, deaths, and net migration must be
made. The Bureau of Census new population projections
used in the labor force projections (and in the other projec-
tion articles in this issue) are based on the following assump-
tions about these major elements needed to project popula-
tion change:
Net migration. The Bureau of Census assumption for the
middle scenario is that both immigration and emigration will
be high. The higher immigration assumption reflects the
inclusion of undocumented aliens who are added in the
middle population projections for the first time. The higher
emigration assumption reflects the greater return migration
of foreign-born persons to their native countries. The net
migration (immigration less emigration) scenario reflects an
assumption that new immigration legislation, which will not
be fully implemented until the end of 1988, will reduce the
level of undocumented migration, but not entirely end it.
Fertility. In. the long run, fertility changes are always
most important for projecting the population. Between now
and 2000, the fertility assumptions would not affect the size
of the 2000 population over the age of 16.
There is no Hispanic population projection available
that is consistent with the current Bureau of the Census
population projection. sLS has decided to use the high
migration scenario from the Census Bureau's most recent
Hispanic population projection.b The assumptions for
this projection are for Hispanics to have an ultimate co-
hort fertility rate of 1.9 children per woman, an ultimate
life expectancy at birth of 81.0 years, and yearly net
migration of 361,000. The latter number is assumed to
include 212,000 undocumented immigrants, consistent
with the initial years, but not with the later years of the
current overall projection. Future direction and magni-
tude of immigration, both documented and undocu-
mented, is uncertain at this time. As a consequence, pro-
jections of the Hispanic population, because they are
affected so much by immigration, are subject to more
uncertainty than the overall population.
Table 1. Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, actual 1972, 1979, and moderate growth projections 2000
Level (In thousands)
Change (In thousands)
Percent change
Group
1972
1979
1986
Projected,
1972-79
1979-86
1986-2000
1972-79
1979-86
1986-2000
2W0
Total, 16 and over .....................
87,037
104,960
117.837
138,775
17,923
12,877
20,938
20.6
12.3
17.8
Men, 16 and over ......................
53,556
60,727
65,423
73,136
7,171
4,696
7,713
13.4
7.7
11.8
16 to 24 .........................
11,243
13,645
12,251
11,506
2,402
-1,394
-745
21.4
-10.2
-6.1
25 to 54 ..........................
33,133
37,926
44,406
53,024
4,793
6,480
8,618
14.5
17.1
19.4
55 and over .......................
9,180
9,156
8,766
8,606
-24
-390
-160
-.3
-4.3
-1.8
Women, 16 and over .............. ....
33,481
44,233
52,414
65,639
10,752
8,181
13,225
32.1
18.5
25.2
16 to 24 .........................
8,943
11,760
11,117
11,125
2,817
-643
8
31.5
-5.5
.1
251054 .........................
19,192
26,594
35,159
47,756
7,402
8.565
12,597
38.6
32.2
35.8
55 and over .......................
5,346
5,879
6,138
6,758
533
259
620
10.0
4.4
10.1
White, 16 and over .....................
77,275
91,922
101,801
116,701
14,647
9,879
14,900
19.0
10.7
14.6
Black, 16 and over .....................
8,746
10,665
12,684
16,334
1,917
2,019
3,650
21.9
18.9
28.8
Asian and other, 16 and over ............
-
2,373
3,352
.5,740
-
979
2,388
-
41.3
71.2
Hispanic:z 16 and over ..................
-
5,215
8,076
14,086
-
2,861
6,010
-
54.9
74.4
Percent distribution
Growth rate .
1972
1979
1986
Proms
1972-79
1979-86
1986-2000
Total, 16 and over .....................................................
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
2.7
1.7
1.2
Men, 16 and over ......................................................
61.5
57.9
55.5
52.7
1.8
1.1
.8
16 to 25 .........................................................
12.9
13.0
10.4
8.3
2.8
-1.5
-.4
25 to 54 .........................................................
38.1
36.1
37.7
38.2
1.9
2.3
1.3
55 and over .......................................................
10.5
8.7
7.4
6.2
l31
-.6
-.1
Women, 16 and over ...................................................
38.5
42.1
44.5
47.3
4.1
2.5
1.6
16 to 24 .........................................................
10.3
11.2
9.4
8.0
4.0
-.8
131
25 to 54 .........................................................
22.1
25.3
29.8
34.4
4.8
4.1
2.2
55 and over .......................................................
6.1
5.6
5.2
4.9
1.4
.6
.7
White, 16 and over ...... ..............................................
88.8
87.6
06.4
84.1
2.5
1.5
1.0
Black, 16 and over .....................................................
10.1
10.2
10.8
11.8
2.9
2.5
1.8
Asian and other, 16 and over ............................................
-
2.3
2.8
4.1
-
5.1
3.9
Hispanic,2 16 and over ..................................................
-
5.0
6.9
.10.2
-
6.4
4.1
~ The "Asian and other" group includes American Indians, Alaskan Natives, Asians, and Pacific before 1976.
Islanders. The historic data are derived by subtracting "Black" from the "Black and other" group;
projections are made directly. 3 The rate is -0.05 to 0.05 percent.
z Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race. Labor force data for Hispanics are not available NorE: Dash indicates data not available.
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Table 2. Civilian labor force participation, by sex, age,
race, and Hispanic origin, actual 1972, 1979, and 1986, and
moderate growth projections 2000
Actual
Projected
Growth rate
Group
1972
1979
1986
2000
1972-79
1979-86
1986-2000
Total, 16 and over ....
60.4
63.7
65.3
67.8
0.8
0.4
0.3
Men., 16 and over .....
79.0
77.8
76.3
74.7
-.2
- .3
-.2
16 to 24 ........
71.3
75.0
73.0
74.3
.7
- .4
1
25 to 54 ........
95.1
94:4
93.8'
92.6
-.1
- .1
-.1
55 and over ......
53.3
46.6
40.4
34.1
-1.9
-2.0
-1.2
Women, 16 and over ..
43.9
50.9
55.3
61.5
2.1
1.2
.8
16 to 24 ........
53.0
62.5
64.3
69.5
2.4
.4
.6
25 to 54 ........
51.0
62.3
70.8
80.6
2.9
1.8
.9
55 and over ......
24.5
23.2
22.1
21.4
-.8
- .7
-.2
White, 16 and over ....
60.4
63.9
65.5
68.2
.8
.4
.3
Black, 16 and over ....
60.2
61.4
63.5
66.0
.3 '
S
3
Asiari and other,
t6 and.over ......
-
65.9
64.9
65.8
-
- .2
.1
Hispanic?
i6 and over .......
-
63.5
65.4
68.7
-
4
.4
~ The "Asian and other" group includes American Indians, Alaskan Natives, Asians, and
Pacific Islanders. The historic data are derived by subtracting' Black" from the "Black and other"
group; projections are made directly.
z Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race. Labor force data for Hispanics are not
available before 1976.
NorE: Dash indicates data not available.
Summary of population changes, 1986-2000. The overall
U.S. population, which increased by t percent annually
between 1972 and 1986, is projected to grow by 0.8 percent
yearly to 2000. This slowing reflects the anticipated drop in
births as well as the slight drop in net migration. The rate of
increase will not be uniform across age, race, or Hispanic
origin groups.
As the following tabulation indicates, over the 1972-86
period, the number of persons (ages 18 to 24) entering
college or their first job rose, while the number of those
(ages 14 to 17) in high school dropped slightly. The number
of those (ages 5 to 13) in elementary school dropped more
substantially, while the number of preschoolers increased.
Over the 1986-2000 period, many of these younger age
groups show a reversal of trend; the number of persons ages
18 to 24, which had been increasing during the 1972-86
period, is projected to drop through 2000:
Total population
(millions) ...............
209.9
241.6
268.3
White ..................
183.3
204.7
221.5
Black ..................
23.6
29.4
35.1
Asian and other ..........
2.9
7.5
11.6
Hispanic ................
-
18.5
30.3
Years of age:
0 to 4 ..................
17.1
18.1
16.9
5 to 13 .................
39.9
34.2
33.5
14 to 17 ................
16.6
14.8
15.3
18 to 24 ................
26.1
28.0
25.2
65 and older .............
21.0
29.2
34.9
85 and older .............
I.5
2.8
4.6
Civilian noninstitutional
population 16 and older
(millions) .................
144.1
180.6
204.7
The number of persons ages 65 and older increased more
than twice as fast as the overall population during the 1972-
86 period; those 85 and older increased more than four times
as fast.
Changes in the total population are reflected in the civil-
ian noninstitutional population 16 and older with a lag.
Between 1972 and 1986, the civilian noninstitutional popu-
lation grew by 1.6 percent annually, while over the 1986-
2000 horizon, the population is projected to grow signifi-
cantly more slowly, by 0.9 percent. (See table 3.)
An important event of the post-World War II period is the ,
great flows of migrants documented and undocumented,
into and out of this country. In the future, according to these
population projections, immigration would be an increasing,
share of population growth. Immigrants are generally of
working age. There are slightly more women than men
among the documented entrants. As a consequence of the
projected overall decrease in births, net migration, even
though declining somewhat, still is projected to continue Lo-
be an increasing share of population growth:
Percent of
population ... 17.2 25.7 29.9 32.2
The effect of the higher net migration is an increase in the
number of people of working age and a decrease in the
number of older people. To the extent that immigrants have
different age, educational, and occupational compositions
than the resident population, this would affect the future
work force. A summary of the Census Bureau's projections
for 2000 and estimates for the 1986 and related earlier years
population are displayed in table 4.s
Projections of labor force participation change . Trends in
labor force participation rates-the second important factor
affecting the size of the labor force of the future-were
projected by Btrs for 114 groups by age, sex, and race or
ethnicity. After the rate of change for each sex and race
group for the 1979-86 period was estimated, the labor force
participation rate for the group was extrapolated by age. The
resulting cross-sectional patterns for specific race-sex
groups were examined for 2000 and, when these patterns
were inconsistent with historical patterns, they were modi-
fied. The cohort participation rates were also plotted and, if
inconsistent with historic patterns, the projected participa-
tion rates were modified. For these two reasons, adjust-
ments mainly affected participation rates for women in the
preretirement years. The projected pattern of participation
for white women did not result in a drop in participation
between ages 25 to 29 and 30 to 34 as it has in the past.
However, this was accepted as consistent with developing
patterns, though it has yet to manifest itself, reflecting pri-
marily the fact that women increasingly are less likely to
withdraw from the labor force after children are born.
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The primary methodological change in this set of projec-
tions involved the development of projections for five-year-
of-age groups for blacks. Participation rates were also calcu-
lated for the Asian and other labor force, but after
examination of the historical data, there was so much year-
to-year variation that the growth patterns in labor force
participation of whites were used instead to project the
Asian and other labor force.
Labor force participation rates for women of prime
working age (25 to 54) and older ages were assumed not to
exceed that of men. After examination of the preliminary
employment projections, the assumed participation rate of
young whites was adjusted upward to reflect anticipated
growth in job opportunities for first-time jobseekers and the
declining number of youth available for those jobs.
Compositional changes in the labor force
Age . By 2000, prime working-age persons would make
up 73 percent of the labor force, up from 67 percent in 1986
(table 1). This reflects underlying demographic changes; the
baby-boom generation will still be in the prime working
ages, but between 1995 and 2000, the "echo" of the. baby
boom (their children) are projected to begin entering the
labor force. Despite this, the youth in the labor force are still
projected to account for a smaller share of the labor force in
2000 than in 1986, 16 percent, compared with 20 percent-
although their share is expected to be even lower in 1995.
The share of older workers (55 and older) also is projected
to shrink between 1986 and 2000 by about lZ percentage
points. The share of workers 55 and older is projected to be
slightly lower in 1995, because that is when the group
known as the "birth dearth of the 1930's" enters the retire-
ment years. The following tabulation shows the number, in
millions, of persons in each major age group for 1972-86
and the rate of growth for 1986-2000.
1972 ..........
20.2
52.3
14.5
1986 ..........
23.4
79.6
14.9
2000 ..........
22.6
100.8
15.4
Growth rate:
1972-86 ...:...
1:1
3.0
.2
1986-2000 .....
-.2
1.7
.2
The labor force group age 55 and older is projected to
decrease between 1986 and 1995, but then increase between
1995 and 2000. During the latter period, this group would
be the fastest growing component of the labor force. The
youth labor force, which has been decreasing since 1980, is
also projected to decline until 1995, before increasing more
rapidly than the overall labor force. The prime working-age
group is the only one that is projected to grow throughout
the period, even though some age groups within this broader
age group are expected to decline for at least part of the
1986-2000 period. The prime age work force grew by 3
percent annually between 1980 and 1986; this growth rate is
projected to drop to 2.6 percent for the rest of this decade,
1,8 percent for the early 1990's, and less than 1 percent
yearly until 2000.
The changes in such broad age groups are a reflection of
the changing size of underlying finer age groups, which are,
in turn, a reflection of past variability in births. To further
explicate the process, we describe the changes in various
detailed age groups.
After the baby boom (defined by the Census Bureau as
starting in 1946 and ending in 1964), the number of births
dropped until 1975, with a modest upswing in 1968-70.
Since 1976, births have increased as the women of the baby
boom became mothers, the "echo" to the baby boom. As a
result of the drop in births that started in 1960, the number
of 16-year-olds in the population and labor force began to
decline about 1976 and is.expected to continue to decline
until 1992. (There w.as a short-lived "boomlet" between
1968 and 1970, resulting in an increase in the number of
teenagers during 1986-88.) The number of 17-year-olds
began to decline in 1977, 1 year after the number of 16-year-
olds. The decline should end 1 year later than for 16-year-
olds, or 1993. Looking at larger age groups which are less
sensitive to yearly variations in births, we see that the num-
ber of 16- to 19-year-olds began dropping in the late 1970's
and is projected to continue to do so until the mid-1990's.
Thereafter, this age group is projected to increase as the
larger number born after 1978-the echo to the baby
boom-begins to enter the labor force. The teenage labor
force is projected to drop by nearly 1.5 million between
1986 and 1992 and then to increase by 1.4 million between
1992 and 2000.
This effect-reversal in direction over the 1986 and 2000
period-also is projected to prevail for other age groups.
Numbers of labor force participants 20 to 24 years of age
began to drop in the early 1980's and are projected to de-
cline by 2.4 million people between 1986 and 1997 before
beginning to increase. The labor force ages 25 to 29, which
has been growing rapidly, is projected to decline from the
late 1980's until after 2000. The drop would be 2.9 million
between 1986 and 2000. For those in the labor force who are
30 to 34 years old, the projected decline begins in the early
1990's. In the late 1990's, the next older group, ages 35 to
39 starts its decline in absolute numbers. The 30-to-34-year-
olds are projected to increase by 2.1 million through the
early 1990's and then decline by 2.2 million by 2000. The
35 to 39 group is projected to increase by 4.2 million be-
tween 1986 and the mid-1990's and then to decline only
slightly by the year 2000.
Race or ethnicit)~. rBl--asks-are-projected-to^acz_ount-for-1
percent of labor-f rce-growth=between-now-and the-end-of
Kthe_eentur-y_._This would be significantly above their current
share of the overall labor force. Blacks made up 1 l percent
of labor force growth between 1972 and 1979, 16 percent
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Table 3. Civilian noninstitutional population, by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, actual 1972, 1979, and 1986, and
projected to 2000
Level (In thousaMs)
Change (In thousands)
Growth rete
Group
~~~
1972
1979
1886
2000
1972-79
1979-86
1986-2000
1972-79
1979-86
1986-2000
Total, 16 and over .................................
144,122
164,865
180,589
204,699
20,743
15,723
24,110
t.9 ~
1.3
0.9
Men, 16 and over ..................................
67,835
78,021
85,799
97,962
10,186
7,778
12,163
2.0
1.4
1.0
16 to 24 .....................................
15,768
18,184
16,773
15,489
2,416
-1,411
-1,284
2.1
-1.1
- .6
25 to 54 ..................................:.....
34,840
40,184
47,343
57,250
5,344
7,159
9,907
2.1
2.4
1.4
55 and over ...................................
17,227
19,653
21,663
25,223
2,426
2,030
3,540
1.9
1.4
1.1
Women, 16 and over ...............................
76,287
86,844
94,790
106,737
10,557
7,946
11,947
1.9
1.3
.9
16 to 24 ....................................:
16,887
18,827
17,293
15,999
1,940
-1,534
-1,294
1.6
-1.2
- .6
25 to 54 .....................................
37,595
42,692
49,672
59,094
5,097
6,980
9,422
1.8
2.2
1.2
55 and over ...................................
21,805
25;325
27,825
31,644
3,520
2,500
3,819
22
1.4
.9
Whfle, 16 and over ......................:..........
127,904
143,898
155,433
171,230
15,994
11,535
15,797
1.7
1.1
.7
Black, 16 and over ..................... : ...........
14,543
17,366
19,989
24,750
2,823-
2,623
4,761
2.6
2.0
1.5
Asian and others 16 and over .......:................
-
.3,601
5,164
8,719
-
1,562
3,555
-
5.3
3.8
Hispanic,2 16 and over ..............................
-
8,208
12,343
20,490
-
4,135
8,147
-
6.0
3.7
~ The "Asian and other" group includes American Indians, Alaskan Natives, Asians, and Pacific 1976.
Islanders. The historic data are derived by subtracting "Black" from the "Black and other" group;
projections are made directly. Note: Dash indicates data not available.
z Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race. Data for Hispanics are not available before Souace: Based on U.S. Bureau of Census "middle" population projections.
between 1980 and 1986, and are projected to account for 17
percent between 1986 and 1990. The following tabulation
shows the number, in millions, of persons in the labor force
and the growth rate, in percent, by race or' ethnic origin,
1.972-86 and 1986-2000: ~ ~ t ~~ - ~ r ~t
Labor force
Growth rate
Group
Total........
1972 1986
87:0 117.8
2000 19
138.8
72-86 198
2.2
6-2.
1.2
White .........
77.3 101.8
116.7
2.0
1.0
Black .........
8.7
12.7
~2 16.3j
2.7
1.8
Asian and
other ........
,~~,2
-
3.4
,,,,, (}''
~ 5.7 ; ~
-
3.9
Hispanic .......
-
8.1
~~ 14 t +'7
_
4.1
There are projected to be 16.3 million blacks in the labor
force in 2000, up 3.7 million from 1986. This_ represents a
higher annual growth rate, 1.8 percent, thaq those projected
for whites and for the overall labor force. Black labor force
participation is projected to grow 0.3 percent annually, as is
that of whites. By 2000, blacks are projected to account for
12 percent of the labor force, up 1 percentage point from
'1986. ~-
The white labor force is projected to grow by 15 million
between 1986 and 2000, reaching a level of 117 million.
Whites have historically been the largest share of the labor
force, but this share has been dropping and is projected to
continue to do. so-in -1972 it was 89 percent and by 2000,
't"should be 84 percent. Thus, the white labor force, which
Iso includes nearly all of the Hispanics, is growing .more
slo- wly than t e overa abor force, .2 percent per year
over both the istoncal period, 1972-86, and the projected
period, 1986-2000. This slower growth reflects- slower pop-
. ulation increases (table 2), because labor force participation
of whites is projected to grow at the same rate as the overall
labor force.
The Asian and other labor force is projected to increase 71
percent, or by 2.4 million persons, between 1986 and 2000.
This increase reflects a high rate of population growth,
which, in turn, reflects higher births and immigration of this
group. By 2000, persons of Asian and other races would
constitute 4 percent of the labor force, up from less than 3
percent in 1986. Over the 1986-2000 period, Asians and
others account for 11 percent of the projected growth in the
labor force. This represents a slowing in their growth rate
from the 1979-86 period during which their population was
increasing rapidly due to the entry of refugees. This entry of
refugees has virtually stopped, and it is assumed not to occur
again over the projection period.
Labor force participation of the Asian and other group is
assumed to increase at the same rate as whites at the individ-
ual age-sex level. Their participation rate is projected to be
lower than that of whites in 2000. This reflects their lower
participation in 1986. The lower rate of increase for their
overall labor force participation -reflects the different age
and sex composition of this population group.
TheiHispanic~labo~forceiistprojectedFtoiincreaSe~4iper--~
Ecent~between~i~986~nd~2OOO;~ainon theilargestsincrease
p~rRojectedjfor,tany~groupf3By 2000, Hispanics are projected
to he 10 Eercent of the labor force up from 7 percent in
1986. This increase results in 6 million more Hispanics
entering the labor force, for a total of 14 million in 2000.
Hispanic labor force participation, which increased 0.4
percent annually between 1979 and 1986, is projected to
continue to increase at that rate over the next 14 years. This
reflects the youtiger age of the. Hispanic population-with
more young women, overall participation rises as their
participation is projected to rise. By contrast, whites and
blacks ~ are projected to have slower rates of increase in
participation.
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Hispanics' share of labor force growth was 22 percent
between 1979 and 1986. Given their more rapid population
growth, their share of the labor force increment between
1986 and 2000 is projected to be 29 percent. The size of the
share is more impressive by subperiod-27 percent for the
years 1986 to 1995 and 32 percent for 1995 to 2000. More
than a third of population growth in the late 1990's is pro-
jected to. be Hispanic. As noted earlier, the number of His-
panics is affected by the assumption made regarding future
levels of immigration; projections of the share of Hispanics
in the labor force could vary considerably.
Sex. As in the past, women are projected to account for
more than 60 percent of the labor force growth. Over the
past 16 years, women have also made up 60 percent of the
additions to the labor force. This share is projected to be 64
percent between now and the end of the century. It may be
more useful to indicate that since 1979, when the baby-
boom generation had almost completed their entry into the
labor force, women accounted for 64 percent of labor force
additions. For the rest of this decade, and in the early
1990's, women are projected also to make up 64 percent of
the net growth, in the labor force. In the late 1990's, as the
"echo" to the baby boom reaches labor force age and begins
entering the labor force, women's share of growth is pro-
jected to drop slightly to 62 percent.
These projections show 66 million women in the labor
force in 2000, up 13.2 million from 1986 (table 1). This
represents an annual rate of growth of 1.6 percent which is
below the 3.3-percent rate of the 1972-86 period, during
which young women of the baby boom were entering the
labor force. With the growth shown in these projections,
women would make up 47 percent of the labor force in
2000, up from 39 percent in 1972 and 45 percent in 1986.
Women's labor force participation is projected to increase
by 0.8 percent annually-more than twice the overall rate of
increase in participation, but half the rate of growth in
women's participation over the 1972-86 period. The pri-
mary factor behind the slower rate of increase is the level of
labor force participation already achieved by women; future
increases above past rates are unlikely. The labor force
participation rate of women ages 25 to 54, at 70.8 percent
in 1986, is projected to reach 80.8 percent by 2000.
The labor force participation of black women has typi-
cally been greater than that of white women, except at the
younger ages. This is projected to continue through 2000,
but the difference is expected to diminish significantly. In
1972, the participation rate of black women-48.8 per-
cent-was 4.6 percentage points above that of white
women. By 2000, the difference would be 0.6 points. This
reflects the somewhat slower growth in participation by
black women and the greater number of young persons in
the black female population. Because younger black
women's participation is lower than that of white women,
this also lowers the difference in participation.
Black women are projected to account for a tenth of labor
force growth over the 1986-2000 period; their projected
growth rate, 2.1 percent, is greater than that for white
women. (See table 5.) For black women, the higher growth
rate represents faster population growth as well as growing
participation. Thus, the proportion of the labor force made
up of black women would increase from 4.5 percent in 1972
to 6.1 percent in 2000.
-Table 4. Total population, including armed forces overseas, by age, sex, and race, actual 1972, 1979, and 1986, and
projected to 2000
Level (In thousands)
Change (In thousands)
Growth rate
Group
Protected,
1972
1979
1986
2f~11
1972-79
1979-86
1986-2000
1972-79
1979-86
1986-2000
Total .........................
209,896
225,055
241,596
268,264
15,159
16,541
26,668
1.0
1.0
0.8
Years of age:
0 to 4 .........................
17,101
16,063
18,128
16,898
- 1,038
2,065
- 1,230
- .9
1.7
- .5
5 to 13 ........................
39,936
35,592
34,193
33,483
- 4,344
- 1,399
- 710
- 1.6
- .6
- .1
14 to 17 ........................
16,640
16,611
14,796
15,332
- 29
- 1,815
536
(tl
- 1.6
.3
18 to 24 ........................
26,077
30,048
27,973
25,231
3,971
- 2,075
- 2,742
2.0
- 1.0
- .7
25 to 34 ........................
27,623
36,203
42,964
37,149
8,580
6,781
- 5,835
3.9
2.5
- 1.0
35 to 44 ........................
22,859
25,176
33,142
43,911
2,317
7,966
10,769
1.4
4.0
2.0
45 to 54 ..................:.....
23,687
22,942
22,823
37,223
- 745
- 119
14,400
- .5
- .1
3.6
55 to 64 ........................
19,211
21,448
22,230
24,157
2,237
782
1,927
1.6
.5
.6
65 to 74 ........................
12,922
15,338
17,325
18,242
2,416
1,987
917
2.5
1.8
.4
75 to 84 ........................
6,555
7,599
9,049
12,017
1,044
1,450
2,968
2.1
2.5
2.0
85 and over .....................
1,542
2,197
2,796
4,621
655
599
1,825
5.2
3.5
3.7
Men .............................
102,591
109,564
117,820
131,185
6,993
8,236
13,365
.9
1.0
.8
Women ..........................
107,305
115,472
123,776
137,072
8,167
8,304
13,296
1.1
1.0
.7
White ............................
183,326
194,098
204,671
221,512
10,772
10,573
16,841
.6
.8
.6
Black ............................
23,646
26,417
29,427
35,122
2,771
3,010
5,695
1.6
1.6
1.3
Asian and otherz ...................
2,924
4,540
7,498
11,630
1,616
2,958
4,132
6.5
7.4
3.2
r. The rate is -0.05 to 0.05. Population of the United States, by Age, Sex, and Race: 1970 to 1981, Cunent Population Re-
z The "Asian and other" group includes American Indians, Alaskan Natives, Asians, and Pacific ports, Series P-25, No. 917; for 1986 data, Estimates o/ the Population of the United States, by
Age, Sex, and Race: 1980 to 1986, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1000; and for
Islanders
.
2000 data, Projections of the Population of the United States, by Age, Sex, and Race 1987 to 2080,
$Ol1RCE: U.S. Bureau of Census. For 1972 and 1979 data, Preliminary Estimates of the Series No. 1018.
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Table 5. Civilian labor force and participation rates by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, actual 1972, 1979, and 1986, and
moderate growth projections 2000
Partlcipatlon rate
Level (In thousanda)
Change (in thousands)
Percent change
Growth rate
Group
Actual
Projected
Actual
Projected
1972-86
1986-2000
1972-86
1966-2000
1972-86
1986-21)00
1972
1979
1986
2000
1972
1979
1986
2000
Total, 16 and over ........
60.4
63.7
65.3
67.8
87,037
104,960
117,837
138,775
30,800
20,938
35.4
17.8
2.2
1.2
Men, 16 and over ............
79.0
77.8
76.3
74.7
53,556
60,727
65,423
73,136
11,867
7,713
22.2
11.8
1.4
.8
16 to 19 .................
58.1
61.5
56.4
60.2
4,478
5,111
4,102
4,501
- 376
.399
- 8.4
9.7
- .6
.7
20 to 24 .................
83.9
86.4
85.8
87.5
6,765
8,534
8,149
7,005
1,384
- 1,144
20.5
- 14.0
1.3
- 1.1
25 to 34 .................
95.7
95.3
94.6
93.6
12,349
16,386
19,383
16,559
7,034
- 2,824
57.0
- 14.6
3.3
- 1.1
35 to 44 .................
96.4
95.7
94.8
93.9
10,372
11,532
15,029
20,133
4,657
5,104
44.9
34.0
2.7
2:1
45 to 54 .................
93.2
91.4
91.0
90.1
10,412
10,008
9,994
16,332
- 418
6,338
- 4.0
63.4
- .3
3.6
55 to 64 .................
80.4
72.8
67.3
63.2
7,155
7,213
6,954
7,238
-.201
284
- 2.8
4.1
- .2
.3
65 and over ...............
24.3
19.9
16.0
9.9
2,025
1,943
1,812
1,368
- 213
-444
- 10.5
- 24.5
- .8
- 2.0
Women, 16 and over .........
43.9
50.9
55.3
61.5
33,481
44,233
52,414
65,639
18,933
13,225
56.5
25.2
3.3
1.6
16 to 19 .................
45.8
54.2
52.9
59.2
3,578
4,527
3,824
4,379
246
555
6.9
14.5
.5
1.0
20 to 24 .................
59.1
69.0
72.4
78.4
5,365
7,233
7,293
6,746
1,928
-547
35.9
- 7.5
2.2
- .6
25 to 34 .................
47.8
63.9
71.6
82.3
6,609
11,550
15,209
15,098
8,600
- 111
130.1
- .7
6.1
- .1
35 to 44 .................
52.0
63.6
73.1
84.2
6,028
8,153
12,204
18,438
6,176
6,234
102.5
51.1
5.2
3.0
45 to 54 .................
53.9
58.4
65.9
75.4
6,555
6,891
7,746
14,220
1,191
6,474
18.2
83.6
1.2
4.4
55 to 64 .................
42.1
41.7
42.3
45.8
4,257
4,718
4,940
5,732
683
792
16.0
16.0
1.1
1.1
65 and over ..............
9.3
8.3
7.4
5.4
1,089
1,161
1,198
1,026
109
- 172
10.0
- 14.4
~.7
- 1.1
Whites, 16 and over ..........
60.4
63.9
65.5
68.2
77,275
91,922
101,801
116,701
24,526
14,900
31.7
14.6
2.0
1.0
Men ....................
79.6
78.6
76.9
75.3
48,118
59,857
57,216
62,252
9,098
5,036
18.9
8.8
1.2
.6
Women .................
43.2
50.5
55.0
61.5
29,157
38,065
44,585
54,449
15,428
9,864
52.9
22.1
3.1
1.4
Blacks, 16 and over ..........
60.2
61.4
63.5
66.0
8,748
10,665
12,684
16,334
3,936
3,650
45.0
28.8
2.7
1.8
Men ....................
73.9
71.6
71.2
70.7
4,855
5,556
6,373
7,926
1,518
1,553
31.3
24.4
2.0
1.6
Women .................
48.8
53.2
57.2
62.1
3,893
5,109
6,311
8,408
2,418
2,097
62.1
33.2
3.5
2.1
Asian and other, 16 and over ..
-
65.9
64.9
65.8
-
2,373
3,352
5,740
-
2,388
-
71.2
-
3.9
Men ....................
-
76.7
74.9
72.4
-
1,314
1,834
2,958
-
1,124
-
61.3
-
3.5
Women .................
-
56.0
55.9
60.1
-
1,059
1,518
2,782
-
1,264
-
83.3
-
4.5
Hispanics? 16 and over .......
-
63.5
65.4
68.7
-
5,215
8,076
14,086
-
6,010
-
74.4
-
4.1
Men ....................
-
81.2
81.0
80.4
-
3,182
4,948
8,303
-
3,355
-
67.8
-
3.8
Women .................
-
47.4
50.1
56.9
-
2,033
3,128
5,783
-
2,655
-
84.9
-
4.5
~ The "Asian and other" group includes American Indians, Alaskan Natives, Asians, and Pacific z Persons of Hispanic origin may t>e of any race. Labor force data for Hispanics are not available
Islanders. The historic data are derived by subtracting "Black" from the "Black and other" group; before 1976.
projections are made directly.
NOTE: Dash indicates data not available.
White women (including most of the Hispanic women),
who accounted for half the labor force growth during the
1972-86 period, are projected to account for less than half
of the projected labor force increase over the next 14 years.
Their participation rate, which grew.by 12 percentage points
between 1972 and 1986, is projected to grow more slowly
to the year 2000. During both periods, [his was a greater
increase than for black women, but by 2000, black women
are projected to still have slightly greater participation.
The labor force of Hispanic women is projected to in-
crease by 2.7 million to 5.8 million in 2000, an 85-percent
increase. Numerically, this growth is projected to exceed
that of black women, even though the female Hispanic labor
force would still be smaller than that of black women. The
growth reflects both population and participation rate
increases.
Men have been and are projected to be a majority of the
labor force; even though the number of men in the labor
force is not changing as dynamically as that of women, it
still is changing. It is projected to grow more slowly, by 7.7
million, or 12 percent, during the 1986-2000 period (this
compares with 25 percent for women during the same pe-
riod). Different components of the labor force are growing
at different rates; both the older and younger male labor
force are projected to drop in size between 1986 and 2000,
but both groups are projected to actually increase between
1995 and 2000.
The change in the size of the young male labor force
represents the interplay of population dynamics-the echo
of the baby boom and projected participation rate increases.
The participation of young men is projected to increase
modestly over the entire projection period. However, be-
tween 1986 and 1995, the number of young men is projected
to drop by I.1 percent yearly, more than offsetting the
anticipated rise in participation. By 1995, however, the
number of younger groups is projected to increase, and with
an increase in participation rates, the number of those in the
labor force would then rise.
The change in the number of the older men in the labor
force also represents the interplay of population and partic-
ipation. The 55 to 65 age group, whose population is pro-
jected to decrease over the 1986-95 period, is projected to
grow more rapidly than the 65 and older group during the
1995-2000 period. Because the younger group has a higher
participation rate and their participation is projected to drop
more slowly than that of men over age 65, the entire older
male labor force is projected to grow over the 1995-2000
period. However, this growth would not be enough to offset
the earlier drop; over the 1986-2000 period, the older male
labor force is projected to decline by 160,000.
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Over the 1986-2000 period, the fastest growing group
among men would be ages 45 to 54, the consequence of the
aging of the baby-boom generation. This group is above the
age of peak participation, but, because baby-boom men
would still be in their prime working years in 2000, the
prime age male labor force is projected to be a greater
proportion of the labor force than in 1986, 1972, or 1979.
The labor force of men ages 45 to 54 is projected to grow
6.3 million, and constitute 30 percent of the 1986-2000
labor force increment.
The labor force of black men is projected to grow more
rapidly than the overall labor force (1.6 percent annually,
compared with 1.2 percent), despite falling participation.
This reflects their higher population growth rates. The num-
ber of white men in the labor force (including most Hispan-
ics) is projected to grow at only half the rate of the overall
labor force. Despite this, white men are projected to account
for a quarter of labor force growth and are projected to be
45 percent of the 2000 labor force.
The number of Hispanic men in the labor force is pro-
jected to increase by 3.4 million between 1986 and 2000, a
.greater absolute change than for black men. Their growth
rate would be three times that of the overall labor force and
more than twice that of black men. By 2000, there are
projected to be more Hispanic than black men in the labor
force. Hispanic men would make up 6 percent of the 2000
labor force and 16 percent of the labor force growth over the
rest of the century. Despite this increase, their participation
is anticipated to drop slightly.
Alternative scenarios
The actual world of work in 2000 will certainly be differ-
ent from that in 1986 in ways that we cannot anticipate. To
give an idea of at least some of the uncertainty, two alterna-
tive projections of the labor force were prepared. (See table
6.) One assumes slower participation rate changes which is
applied to the middle Population series, and the other as-
sumes ahigher immigration rate and uses the middle partic-
ipation rate series.
Under the low alternative, the overall 2000 labor force
would be l35 million, an expansion of l4 percent over the
1986 level. This slow growth, l.0 percent annually, is a
consequence of the participation rate growing slowly or
dropping rapidly. [n the middle scenario, overall participa-
tion is projected to increase 0.3 percent annually. Under this
scenario, it would drop at the same rate.
Also under the low alternative, labor force participation
among women is projected to rise more slowly. This is
consistent with the view that the rapid increases of the
1970's completed their increase in participation. The rapid
rise of the past 2 years would be a cyclical response to the
recession of the early 1980's-not a resumption of the high
growth of the early and middle 1970's.
Using the participation rates of the middle scenario with
the Census Bureau's high migration series, we find that the
labor force increases to 141 million in 2000-2 million
greater than the middle scenario. The only difference, be-
tween the middle and the high migration population projec-
tions is in the net migration assumption. Despite the higher
level of .immigration, 160 percent greater, the resulting
growth rate of the labor force is only 0.2 percent higher.
For the high migration scenario, it was assumed that
Hispanics would be the same proportion of the civilian non-
instititional population in any new projection as they had
been in the previous high migration projection. Under this
assumption, this Hispanic labor force would grow at the
same rate under both the middle and high scenarios and the
Hispanic labor force would be the same share under both
scenarios. Under the low participation scenario, Hispanics
would initially account for 9.4 percent of the labor force and
that share would grow by 3.3 percent yearly to 2000, com-
pared with the 4.1-percent gain attained in the middle and
high scenarios.
This analysis suggests that Asians and others are a more
significant source of labor force growth in the high migra-
tion scenario; their share of the labor force would be the
same under all three scenarios, but the growth rate is much
higher under the high migration scenario-4.4 percent,
compared with 3.9 percent in the middle growth scenario,
and 3.7 percent in the low scenario.
Other insights
The median age of the labor force in the post-World War
II era peaked in 1962, at 40.6 years. With the entry of the
baby-boom generation into the labor force, the median age
dropped, reaching a low in 1980 of 34.6 years. By 1986, the
median age had risen to 35.3 years, an increase of less than
1 year. The median age of the labor force is projected to
reach 38.9 years in 2000, 3.6 years above the 1986 level. "
Even though the age of the population is increasing rapidly,
unless older workers remain in the labor force in greater
numbers, the 1962 median is not likely to be attained again.
As the population ages, more would be in the ages which
had-and are projected to continue to have-declining
labor force participation. Table 7 shows median ages of the
labor force by race and. Hispanic origin, for selected histor-
ical years and for projected years.
To reinforce the point about older workers, persons ages
55 and older constituted 16.7 percent of the labor force in
1972. With the entry of the baby-boom generation (and the
continuing drop in participation of older men), workers 55
and over made up only 14.3 percent in 1979. In 1986, after
the baby-boom generation had completed their entry, the
older group was only 12.6 percent of the labor force.
Share of labor force growth
If we consider the components of labor force growth,
starting in a year for which we have data for all groups,
shares of labor force growth for 1976-86 can be compared
with the projected share for 1986-2000. Women are pro-
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Table 6. Three scenarios of the civilian labor force by
sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, projections 2000
Participation rate
Level
Group
(in thousands)
High
Moderate
Low
High
Moderate
Low
Total............
68.0
67.8
65.7
141,107
138,775
134,517
Men:
74.8
74.7
73.2
74,464
73,136
71,729
16 to 24 years ......
74.4
74.3
72.7
11,811
11,506
11,261
'2510 54 years ......
92.6
92.6
90.9
54,009
53,024
52,043
55 years and over ....
34.2
34.1
33.4
8,644
8,606
8,425
Women:
61.7
61.5
58.8
66,643
65,639
62,788
16 to 24 years ......
69.6
69.5
68.1
11,365
11,125
10,898
25 to 54 years ......
80.8
80.8
76.2
48,487
47,756
45,007
55 years and over ....
21.4
21.4
:21.8
6,791
6,758
6,883
White ...............
68.4
68.2
65.9
118,474
116,701
112,918
Black ...............
66.1
66.0
64.8
16,518
16,334
16,031
Asian and others ....
66.0
65.8
63.9
6,115
5,740
5,568
Hispanicz ............
68.8
68.7
61.9
14,122
14,086
12,675
~ The "Asian and other" group includes American Indians, Alaskan Natives, Asians, and
Pacific Islanders.
z Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race.
jected to account for about the same share of labor force
growth as they have in the past. The white share of labor
force growth is projected to drop. The black, the Asian and
other, and the Hispanic shares are each projected to in-
crease, with the Hispanic shaze increasing the most. These
calculations show that Hispanics, most of whom are white,'
are sustaining the white share of growth.g The non-Hispanic
white share (43 percent) is projected to be 18 percentage
points less than the 1976-86 share; however, the overall
white share is projected to fall only by 7 percentage points.
These projections show that non-Hispanic white men, who
accounted for 18 percent of labor force growth from 1976
to 1986 when the baby-boom generation was completing its
entry into the labor force, would drop to 8 percent of the
1986-2000 increase. This reflects the fact that most non-
Hispanic white men are already in the labor force and a
slight drop in the participation of older white men. The
following tabulation shows the percentage distribution of
the labor force by sex, race, and Hispanic origin, and by
residency status, 1976-86, and projected, 1986-2000:
Men .........................
38.0
36.8
Women .......................
62.0
63.2
White ........................
78.6
71.2
Black .........................
14.5
17.4
Asian and other ................
6.9
11.4
Hispanic ......................
17.5
28.7
Non-Hispanic white .............
61.6
43.3
Men .......................
18.1
8.5
Women .....................
43.5
34.8
Residents ...................
-
76.6
Net migrants ................
-
23.4
Over the 1972-86 period, the white female labor force of
prime working age grew by 12.2 million and that of their
white counterparts, by 9.0 million, the second greatest in-
crease. White persons of prime age are projected to have the
greatest increment to the 1982-2000 labor force, with the
number of women increasing by 9.8 million and men, 6.3'.
million. Because of the birth dearth, the number of younger
white men in the labor force is projected to drop. Because
of continuing decreases in participation, the number of older
white men in the labor force is also expected to drop. These
decreases in the number of younger alid older white men
offset the prime age white male growth in the labor force.
One further refinement indicates that the number of non-
Hispanic prime age white men would increase by 4.9 mil-
lion or 23.4 percent of the 1986-2000 labor force growth.
Over the 1986-2000 period, net migration accounts for
almost a fourth of labor force growth. Somewhat more men
than women immigrants would join the labor force--the
23.4-percent net migration would be divided into 12.8 per-
cent for men versus 10.6 for women. As the following
tabulations shows, most migration is projected to be by
whites, with Asians and others having a greater share than
blacks (because the migration scenario used for Hispanics is
not consistent with that for the main projection, it is not
possible to provide a projection of the Hispanic share of
labor force growth due to net migration):
Migrant Resident
Total ....................... 23.4 76.6
Men ......................... 12.8 24.0
Women ....................... 10.6 52.6
White ........................ 14.4 56.8
........................
Black 2.3 15.1 -~
Asian and other
................ 6.7 4.7
Dependency ratio. With the baby-boom generation in
their prime working yeazs and with the small number of
births projected between 1986 and 2000, persons who are
working aze expected to exceed those who do not:
Economic dependency ratio (by age)
Under Age 65 '
Total 16 16-154 and over
1972
.........
134.6
62.3
54.1
18.2
1979
.........
110.2
52.0
37.6
20.6
1986
.........
101.2
46.5
32.9
21.8
1995
.........
94.2
44.0
27.0
23.2
2000
.........
89.8
40.8
26.0
23.0
The economic dependency ratio is the number of those in
the total population (including Armed Forces overseas) who.
aze not in the total labor force per 100 persons in the total
labor force. This ratio declined steadily over the 1972-86
period as the baby-boom generation entered the labor force:
The lazgest component of the dependency ratio is made up
of persons under age 16. However, this ratio has been drop-
ping and is expected to continue to do so throughout the
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Table 7. Median ages of the labor force, by sex, race, and
Hispanic origin, selected historical years and projected
years, 1995 and 2000
Historical
Protected
Group
1962
1972
1979
1986
1995
2000
Total ...........................
40.5
37.7
34.7
35.3
37.6
38.9
Men ..........................
40.5
38.1
35.3
35.6
37.9
39.3
Women .......................
40.4
37.0
33:9
34.9
37.1
38.6
White .........................
40.9
3B.0
34.9
35.5
37.9
39.2
Blade .........................
38.3
35.4
33.5
33.8
36.1
37.2
Asian and others .. ....... ....
-
-
-
35.5
37.2
36.0
Hispanic .......................
-
-
32.2
32.6
34.1
35.1
Note: Dash indicates data not available.
entire projection period. With the rising participation of
women, the component of the dependency ratio attributed to
those ages 16 to 64 has also declined steadily. The change
between 1995 and 2000 is modest, reflecting slightly lower
participation rates of the largest age group of men, those 45
to 54. The dependency ratio for all persons over 65 has been
rising over the entire historical period, a trend projected to
continue. The slight drop between 1995 and 2000 reflects
the aging of the smaller birth cohort of the 1930's.
Employment-population ratio. WIth the rise in participa-
tion, the employment-population ratio is projected to rise. It
has been growing over the last 14 yeazs; like overall labor
force participation, the rate of increase is projected to
slow:10
Employment-population ratio .... 57.0 59.9 60.7 63.7
Keeping in mind the 14-year span of the projections, we
can look at 15-year cohorts-those I S to 29, 30 to 44, 45 to
59, and 60 to 74. Each cohort in the labor force will be in
[he next older group by the end of each of the time intervals
discussed here:
The combination of cohort size and stage in the life cycle
explain the share of labor force. When a cohort is large, but
is at a stage in life when participation is low, such as when
entering or leaving the labor force, their share will be small.
Those born during 1895-1909 were in the retirement yeazs
in 1972, but still accounted for 8.4 percent of the labor force
in that year. Those born 1910-24 who entered the labor
force in the late 1920's and 1930's, were still almost the
same share of the labor force in 1972 as the next generation,
despite being in the preretirement yeazs. Those born into this
group in the United States were joined by migrants from
Europe at a level exceeding the immigration of the 1980's.
By 1986, the group born during the 1910-24 period were 6
percent of the labor force and virtually all are projected to
be out of the labor force in 2000. Those born during the
1925-39 period could be described as part of the 1930's
birth dearth. Although in their prime working-age yeazs in
1972, they made up less than a third of the work force; this
shaze dropped to a fifth by 1986. As they retire, their shave
drops to less than 5 percent by 2000. Those born during
1940-55 are considered pre- and eazly baby-boom genera-
tion. They also were more than a third of .the labor force
when they entered the labor force (in 1972). Like the
younger edge of the baby-boom generation, their share grew
by 1986. However, as they continue to age, their shaze is
projected to drop and in 2000, they are projected to make up
less than a third of the labor force. Those born during the
1955-69 period entered the labor force between 1972 and
1986. Once this entry was complete, they accounted for
more than a third of the labor force. They may be considered
the last part of the baby-boom generation. Their labor-force
share is projected to increase between now and 2000 as the
women in this group continue entering the labor force and
as youriger smaller cohorts reach working age.
Where are they now?
These changes projected in the labor force by age suggest
that it would be interesting to look at some of the major
cohorts of the past. Four groups aze nominated: the birth
dearth of the 1930's, the baby boom of the late 1940's,
1950's, and early 1960's, the birth dearth of the late 1960's
and eazly 1970's, and the echo group of the late 1970's and
the 1980's. The following tabulation illustrates the passage
of these groups through the labor force:
Percent of
labor force
Growth rate
(percent)
1972
1930's dearth .... 18.8
1986
15.1
2000 197
1.7
2-86 19
.6
86-20~
-13.3
Baby boom ..... -
55.5
49.8
-
0.4
1970's dearth .... -
6.7
22.8
-
10.4
Echo ........... -
-
11.2
-
-
The persons in the 1930's birth-dearth group aze now in
their preretirement yeazs and aze projected to be in their late
sixties by 2000. The number of these persons in the labor
force is projected to plunge in the next 14 years. Their shaze
of the labor force-small in 1986 because of the size of the
baby boom-is projected to diminish to neaz zero by 2000.
The baby-boom generation, more than half of the labor force
now, will begin shrinking as a share of the labor force as
they move towazds the yeazs when some may be taking eazly
retirement. Their 2000 labor force is projected to be slightly
larger than now-although a smaller percent. The persons
in the 1970's birth dearth group are in their teens and their
shaze of labor force is projected to grow as they begin
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working; despite their relatively small size, they are ex-
pected to represent a fifth. of the labor force in 2000. Not all
the echo to the baby-boom group has been born as of 1986;
in 2000, they are projected to still be entering the labor
force, of which they are projected to make up just, over a
tenth. ^
~ The Asian and other race group consists of American Indians, Native
Alaskans, Asians, and Pacific Islanders.
2 These projections replace those described by Howard N Fullerton, Jr.
in "The 1995 labor force: e~s's latest projections," Monthly Labor Review,
November 1985, pp. 17-26; and Howard N Fullerton, Jr. and John Tschet-
ter, "The 1995 labor force: a second look," Monthly Labor Review,
November 1983, pp. 3-I0.
3 Projections of the Population of the United States by Age, Sex and
Race: 1987 to 2080, Current Population Reports,,Series P-25, No. 1018
(Bureau of Census, forthcoming). `
? For the most recent evaluation of et,s labor force projections, see
Howard N Fullerton, Jr., "How accurate were the 1980 labor force projec-
tions?" Monthly Labor Review, July 1982, pp. IS-21. An evaluation of the
labor force projections to 1985 is in progress. For a description of et,s's
current projection methodology, see Employment Projections for 1995:
Data and Methods, Bulletin 2253 (Bureau of Latior` Statistics, 1986).
s Hispanics may be of any race; their poptilafioh and labor force numbers
are also included in those for whites, blacks, and Asians and others.
b Gregory Spencer, Projections of the Hispanic Population, /983 to
2080, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 995 (Bureau of Cen-
sus, 1986).
~ A cohort is a group experiencing the same event during the same time
period-for example, immigrants to the United States during the 1960-64
period or those born 1930-34. In this azticle, only birth cohorts are dis-
cussed.
a See the following articles in the Monthly Labor Review, September
1987: Ronald E. Kutscher, "Overview and implications of the projections
to 2000," pp. 3-9; Norman C. Saunders, "Economic projections to the year
2000," pp. 10-18; Valerie A. Personick, "Industry output and employment
through the end of the century," pp. 30-45; and George T. Silvestri and
John M. Lukasiewicz, "A' look at occupational employment trends to the
yeaz 2000," pp. 46-63.
v For the purpose of deriving the share of non-Hispanic whites, it is
assumed that 97 percent of Hispanics are white.
io The employment for 2000 is projected to be 130.4 million, with an
unemployment rate of 6.0 percent. See Norman C. Saunders, "Economic
projections," pp. 10-18.
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Industry output and employment
throu h the end of the centur
g y
Service-producing industries add more than
20 million jobs; employment in manufacturing
declines, but the output share of the Nation's
factories is projected to hold steady
More than 21 million new jobs are projected to be added to
the U.S. economy between 1986 and the year 2000, bring-
ing total employment to just over 133 million. Many indus-
tries are projected to share in this expansion and enjoy
strong job growth, but several, especially some in manufac-
turing, are not. This article describes the trends of industry
output and job growth projected by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics for the remainder of the 20th century.
The 21 million new jobs translate into an increase of 19'.2
percent over the projection period, or annual growth of 1.3
percent. This compares to annual rates of job growth of 2.6
percent over the 1972-79 period, and 1.4 percent over the
1979-86 period. Thus, projected employment increases are
expected to occur at a slower pace than in the past.
Three projections of employment were prepared-a mod-
erate, aloes, and a high. This article focuses on the moder-
ate growth scenario. The demographic and economic
assumptions of this scenario are described in detail in com-
panion articles by Howard N Fullerton, Jr., and Norman C.
Saunders, on pp. 10-29 of this issue. Some of the key trends
which especially affect the industry projections are:
? A continued slowdown in labor force growth following
.the 1970's surge, during which the baby-boom genera-
tion entered the work force and women's labor force
participation rose dramatically;
? Average growth of 2.4 percent a year in real gross na-
tional product (GNP) between 1986 and 2000, and unem-
ployment tapering from a 7.0-percent rate in 1986 to 6.0
percent by 2000;
Valerie A. Personick is an economist in the Office of Economic Growth
and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
? Higher productivity growth; especially in manufacturing,
which allows production to expand without correspond-
ing job gains;
? Improvements in'the Nation's international trade balance,
as the exchange valiie of the dollar' is projected to return
' to a level rriiii?e consistent with long=term relationships;
imports will continue` fo make inroads in some key sec-
tors, but the' export mai-ket, especially for U.S. capital
goods, should expand faster;
? Defense spending growing in real terms, at least through
1990, because ~of .projects already approved, but begin-
ning amodest decline after that.
Goods versus .services,
The 133 million jobs .in the year 2000 will be even more
concentrated ~in:;service-producing sectors than are jobs
today, because ,virtually all of the net increase of 21 million
jobs are in the~-service,producing sector; although some
goods-producing:industri~s are projected to grow, others are
projected to decline, with,a net employment change of zero.
As table 1 shows,; 119. million of the 133 million total jobs
are expected tti be.nonfarm wage and salary jobs, or payroll
employment. The rest are in nonfarm self-employment and
unpaid family work, 9.7 million; private household work,
1.2 million; `and' agriculture. (both payroll and self-
employed), 2.9.,million. Of the nonfarm wage and salary
jobs, 3 out of ,4 were in.service-producing industries in
1986; by the year 2000,,almost 4 out of 5 are projected to
be. The goods-producing sector, in contrast, is expected to
show virtually no net change, as declines in manufacturing
and mining just offset projected increases in construction.
Manufacturing employment is projected to fall from 19 mil-
lion in 1986 to 18.2 million by 2000.
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The structural drop in total factory jobs has been occur-
ring since 1979, and for many individual manufacturing
industries, the decline started much earlier. In 1979, manu-
facturing employment peaked at just over 21 million jobs,
but over the 1980 and 1981-82 recessions, about 2.8 mil-
lion of those jobs were lost. Since the trough of the last
recession in November 1982, employment in manufacturing
has made a partial comeback, but new economic conditions
have suppressed full recovery. The high value of the dollar
compared to foreign currencies, for example, resulted in
unprecedented levels of merchandise imports into the
United States, and domestic firms tended to find that their
long-established cost structures prevehted them from com-
peting with these cheaper imports. Many firms engaged in
cost-cutting and restructuring, closing some older plants and
streamlining others. This restructuring and cost-cutting,
along with other factors such as contracting out, technolog-
ical advances, new capital investment, and energy substitu-
tion, to name a few, pushed productivity gains in manufac-
turing to a brisk 3.4-percent pace between 1983 and 1986,
compared to 2.3 percent in the 1970's. Output reached
record high levels in 1986.
The projections of manufacturing employment incorpo-
rate acontinued restructuring, but the rate of job contraction
is expected to slow in the future. The average annual rate of
decline in factory jobs was -1.4 percent during the years
1979-86; the 1986-2000 projected rate is just -0.3 percent.
In contrast to jobs, factory output is projected to show
very strong growth during the 1986-2000 period. At 2.3
percent a year, it is expected to be only slightly below the
rate of increase in total ctvP. Demand for U.S. manufactured
products is projected to be high for a number of reasons.
First, exports are projected to recover.some of their markets
as the value of the dollar continues to fall, with the rate of
growth exceeding that projected for imports. Second, do-
mestic demand for capital goods is expected fo be robust as
low real interest rates spur investment. Finally, already
scheduled defense expenditures for communications equip-
ment, missiles, and aircraft should stimulate those sectors
for several years to come. As a,result of -these factors,
manufacturing production, especially of darable goods, is
projected to hold a steady 33-percent share of total output
through the next decade. Manufacturirig'fobs, by compari-
son, are projected to drop from 19 percent of -total payroll
employment in 1986 to 15 percent by 2000.
Industry output and employment trends
Agriculture. Agricultural production is projected to re-
cover from its 1983-86 slump as the declining dollar stimu-
lates amodest recovery of agricultural exports: However, it
is not expected that U.S. exports can regain the world dom-
inance they once enjoyed. This is because several former
customer nations have not only achieved self-sufficiency but
have in fact became net exporters of-the agricultural prod-
ucts they once imported.
One portion of the agricultural sector-the agricultural
services, forestry, and fishery products industry-has been
posting very rapid growth and is projected to continue to do
so. Employment in this industry has been growing, in con-
trast to long-term steady declines in farm production jobs.
About 245,000 new jobs are projected to be added in agri-
cultural services between 1986 and 2000, compared to losses
of 585,000 in crop and livestock production. Most of the gains
in agricultural services are in landscaping and horticultural
services (such as lawn services). Thus, even within the agricul-
tural sector, the shift to services is inexorable.
The overall decline in total agricultural jobs from 1972'.to
1986 occurred entirely among the self-employed and unpaid
family workers. In contrast, wage and salary farm jobs have
actually increased, and are expected to continue to do so, as
the following tabulation shows:
Change in employment
(thousands)
Total agriculture .................. -266 -340
Self-employed and unpaid
family jobs ................... -619 -488
Wage and salary jobs ............ 353 148
This reflects the closure of many smaller, family-owned
farms, and the increasing concentration of farming opera-
tions among fewer, larger producers.
Mining. The sLS projections for the mining sector incor-
porate the latest energy assumptions for the year 2000 from
the U.S. Department of Energy. ~ In this scenario, imports of
crude petroleum rise enormously from present levels, re-
flecting the assumption that the current worldwide oil glut
will be absorbed. Domestic production of crude oil is pro-
jected to drop by almost one-fourth over the 1986-2000
period, while imports are projected to more than double.
Correspondingly, employment in crude oil production is
projected to fall even further below 1986's depressed level,
but some of the recent job loss in exploration services is
expected to be made up by the year 2000 because of higher
oil prices in the 1990's. Coal production is projected to grow
as an alternative energy source, but high productivity in this
industry results in the continued shrinking of employment.
(See table 6 for detailed projections of industry employment.)
Metal mining is not projected to recover any of the deep
cuts experienced in both output and employment since
1979. Demand for U.S. primary metals and, in turn, metal
mining activity were severely reduced in the 1980-82 reces-
sions, and did not pick up again.in the recovery period. In
1986, output of U.S. metal mines was less than three-
fourths of the 1979 level, and employment was only about
two-fifths. Further losses are projected, although at a much
slower rate. The primary metals manufacturing industries
are projected to either decline or to be among the slowest-
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growing of all the industries studied in the at.s projections.
As a result, production of U.S. metal mines is projected to
decline and another 14,000 jobs are projected to be lost.
Construction. The real value of new and maintenance
construction is projected to grow by 1.4 percent a year
between 1986 and 2000, slightly faster than long-term his-
torical trends but slower than the 2.4-percent projected for
overall GNP growth. New construction is especially sensitive
to cyclical flucttiations, but demographic factors play a part
as well. Because of an expected slowdown in the rate of new
household formation in the 1990's, residential construction
is projected to slow dramatically. A little growth is expected
for new single-family homes and for residential alterations
and additions, but this will be just about offset by declines
in new apartment and condominium construction and in
farm housing. Nonresidential construction is projected to
recover from the recent oversupply of office and commer-
cial space, and will grow about 2.0 percent a year during the
1986-2000 period.
Construction employment is projected to rise by 890,000
between 1986 and 2000, to 5.8 million wage and salary
jobs. The rate of increase, 1.2 percent a year, is just slightly
below the projected total job growth in the economy.
Manufacturing. Manufacturing is projected to lose
834,000 jobs by 2000, a rate of decline of -0.3 percent a
year. Output, in contrast; is projected to almost keep pace
with total GNP growth, averaging 2.3 percent a year. Heavy
investment in capital accumulation and the continued win-
nowing out of less efficient operations, among other factors,
are expected to result in substantial productivity growth.
The following tabulation presents wage and salary employ-
ment estimates (in thousands) for 1979 and 1986, and pro-
jected to 2000:
Manufacturing ...:...........
21,042
18,994
18,160
Durables ..................
12,762
11,244
10,73]
Nondurables ...............
8,280
7,750
7,429
Table 1. Employment by major sector, 1972, 1979, 1986, and projected to 2000
~
Employment (in thousands)
Sector
Pro)ected,2000
Change,t986-2000
1972
1979
1986
Low
Moderate
High
Low
Moderate
Migh
Total ......................................................
84,549
101,353
111,623
126,432
133,030
137,533
14,809
21,407
25,910
Nonfarm wage and salary ....................................
73,514
89,481
99,044
113,554
119,156
123,013
14,510
20,112
23,969
Goods-producing ..........................................
23,668
26,463
24,681
23,148
24,678
25,906
-1,533
-3
1,225
Mining ................................................
628
958
783
672
724
779
-111
-59
-4
Construction ...........................................
3,889
4,463
4,904
5,643
5,794
6,077
739
890
1,173
Manufacturing ..........................................
19,151
21,042
18,994
16,833
18,160
19,050
-2,161
-834
56
Durable .............................................
11,050
12,762
11,244
9,654
10,731
11,193
-1,590
-513
-51
Nondurable ..........................................
8,101
8,280
7,750
7,179
7,429
7,857
-571
-321
107
Service-producingr ........................................
49,846
63,018
74,363
90,406
94,478
97,107
16,043
20,115
22,744
Transportation and public utilities ............................
4,541
5,135
5,244
5,410
5,719
5,903
166
470
659
Wholesale trade .........................................
4,113
5,204
5,735
7,015
7,268
7,361
1,280
1,531
1,626
Retail trade ............................................
11,835
14,989
17,845
21,795
22,702
23,079
3,950
4,857
5,234
Finance, insurance, and real estate ..........................
3,907
4,975
6,297
7,508
7,917
8,159
1,211
1,620
1,862
Servicesr ..............................................
12,117
16,768
22,531
30,778
32,545
33,708
8,247
10,014
11,177
Government ............................................
13,333
15,947
16,711
17,900
18,329
18,897
1,189
1,618
2,186
Agriculture ................................................
3,523
3,401
3,252
2,784
2,917
3,009
-478
-335
-253
Private households ..........................................
1,693
1,326
1,241
1,122
1,215
1,234
-119
-26
-7
Nonfarm self-employed and unpaid family workers ..................
5,819
7,145
8,086
8,972
9,742
10,277
886
1,656
2,191
Average annual rate of change (In percent)
Percent distribution of wage and salary employment
1986-2000
Proleded, 20.J
1972-79
1979-86
Low
Moderate
High
1972
1979
1986
Low
Moderate
Nigh
Total .............................................
2.6
1.4
0.9
1.3
1.5
-
-
-
-
-
-
Nonfarm wage and salary ...........................
2.8
1.5
1.0
1.3
1.6
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Goods-producing .................................
1.6
-1.0
- .5
.0
.3 '
32.2
29.6
24.9
20.4
20.7
21.1
Mining .......................................
6.2
-2.8
-1.1
- .6
.0
.9
1.1
.8
.6
.6
.6
Construction ..................................
2.0
1.4
1.0
1.2
1.5
5.3
5.0
5.0
5.0
4.9
4.9
Manufacturing .................................
1.4
-1.4
- .9
- .3
.0
26.1
23.5
19.2
14.8
15.2
15.5
Durable ....................................
2.1
-1.8
-1.1
- .3
.0
15.0
14.3
11.4
8.5
9.0
9.1
Nondurable .................................
3
- .9
- .5
- .3
.1
11.0
9.3
7.8
6.3
6.2
6.4
Service-Praducingr ...............................
3.4
2.4
1.4
1.7
1.9
67.8
70.4
75.1
79.6
79.3
78.9
Transportation and public utilities ...................
1.8
.3
.2
.6
.8
6.2
5.7
5.3
4.8
4.8
4.8
Wholesale trade ................................
3.4
1.4
1.4
1.7
1.8
5.6
5.8
5.8
6.2
6.1
6.0
Retail trade ...................................
3.4
2.5
1.4
1.7
1.9
16.1
16.8
18.0
19.2
19.1
18.8
Finance, insurance, and real estate .................
3.5
3.4
1.3
1.7
1.9
5.3
S.6
6.4
6.6
6.6
6.6
Services .....................................
4.8
4.3
2.3
2.7
2.9
16.5
18.7
22.7
27.1
27.3
27.4
Government ...................................
2.6
.7
.5
.7
.9
18.1
17.8
16.9
15.8
15.4
15.4
Agriculture .......................................
- .5
- .6
-1.1
- .8
- .6
-
-
-
-
-
-
Private households .................................
-3.4
- .9
- .7
- .1
.0
-
-
-
-
-
-
Nonfarm self-employed and unpaid family workers .........
3.0
1.8
.B
1.3
1.7
-
-
-
-
-
-
~ Excludes Standard Industrial Classifications 074,5,8 (agricultural services) and 99 (nonclas- lished in Employment and Earnings.
sifiable establishments). Therefore, the estimates are not exactly comparable with data pub-
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Table 2. Distribution and growth. of real domestic output
by major sector, 1972, 1979, 1986,: and projected to 2000
Percent dletrlbutfon
Projected, 2000
Low Moderate Hlgh
Total .....................
Goads-producing ..........
Mining ................ .
Construction ............
Manufacturing ...........
Durable ..............
Nondurable ...........
Service-producing ......... .
Transportation and public
utilities .............. .
Wholesale trade ........ .
Retail trade .........:.. .
Finance, insurance, and real
estate ...............
Services ...............
Government ............
Agriculture ...............
Private households ........ .
100.0
48.3
4.8
7.9
35.6
18.0
17.6
47.9
8.6
4.8
6.6
100.0
46.5
4.0
6.9
35.6
18.3
17.3
50.0.
9.1-
as
6.7
100.0
43.5
3.3
6.8
33.4
17.0
16.4
53.1
8.1
5.6
7.4
10.0 10.8 11.6
10.8 12.0 13.8
7.1 6.5 6.6
3.6 3.3 3.3
.2 .1 .1
100.0
41.0
2.4
5.7
33.0
17.6
15.3
55.6
8.3
5.8
7.8
100.0
41.5
2.3
6.0
33.2
17.9
15.3
55.1
8.4
5.9
7.5
100.0
42.1
2.3
6.5
33.2
17.8
15.4
54.4
8.4
6.0
7.5
11.8 12.0 11.7
15.4 15.4 15.1
6.5 6.0 5.7
3.3 3.3 3.4
1 .1 .1
Total .......................
Goods-producing ............
Mining .................. .
rAnstruction ..............
Manufacturing .............
Durable ................
Nondurable .............
Service-producing ........... .
Transportation and public
utilities ................ .
Wholesale trade .......... .
Retail trade .......... .
Finance, insurance, and real
estate .................
Services .................
Government ..............
Agriculture .................
Private households .......... .
1.6 :. 1.6
s 1.0
-1.a - .s
1.3 .1
6 1.3
.5 1.7
8 .9
4.1
4.4
1.7
1.7
- 3.7
2.4
2.0
- .2
1.4
2.3
2.7
1.8
2.6
2.5 1.6
3.6 2.3
1.8 1.2
1.4 I 1.5
3.0 - .8
Because most of the driving force behind the strong man-
ufacturing output growth stems from investment in and ex-
ports of capital equipment, output g'rowtli is projected to be
sharper for durable goods than for nondui-ables. Durable
manufacturing industries are projected to average produc-
tion growth of 2.7 percent a year, while nondurables will
average 1.8 percent a year. In fact, of the 79 separate
durable manufacturing industries in the. economic projec-
tions system, only 5 are not expected to post any output
gains. The exceptions are railroad equipment and four of the
primary metals industries; all the other durable goods indus-
tries are projected to expand. Similarly, productivity gains
are expected to be higher in durable goods industries, result-
ing in a net decline of 513,000 jobs, compared with a drop
of 321,000 in nondurable manufacturing.
At the same time, it should be noted that the occupational
composition of the remaining 18.2 million manufacturing
jobs in 2000 is expected to change. More-details can be
found in the George T. Silvestri and John M. Lukasiewicz
article on occupational projections (pp. 46-63 of this issue),
but in general, manufacturing employment is expected to
shift away from production and assembly-line jobs toward
professional, managerial, and technical occupations:
All manufacturing occupations ... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Managerial, professional,
technical ................. 19.9 23.4 12.8 14.7
Marketing- and sales ......... 2.2 2.3 4.1 4.6
Administrative support,
clerical .................. 11.3 10.2 12.6 12.2
Precision production ......... 11.0 11.2 6.6 6.8
Other production typejobs* ... 47.3 44.9 55:5 53.6
*Mechanics, machine operators, hand assemblers, material movers, laborers. -
In fact, although manufacturing in total is projected to drop
834,000 jobs, there will actually be an increase of 258,000
engineering, scientific, and technical positions and 85,000
more managerial jobs.
The shift is more pronounced in industries where imports
play a significant role. In some cases, design and engineer-
ing are done domestically, but much of the actual assembly
is performed overseas. The product is then brought into this
country under the brand name of the domestic parent. In
these cases-electronic home entertainment equipment as
an example-the U.S. firm acts essentially as a design and
marketing agent.
Following is a discussion of the outlook for selected man-
ufacturing industries. (See table 6 for the full output and
employment detail.)
Industrial machinery (except computers and office equip-
ment). Despite some growth in 1984, 1985, and 1986,
virtually all of the heavy industrial machinery industries
have yet to regain 1979's peak production levels. Many of
them rely on exports for a large share of their markets
(between 10 and 30 percent of output), and with the wide
disequilibrium in the price of the dollar in recent years,
exports fell and imports gained ground-considerable
ground in some industries. In addition, primary domestic
markets for some of the machinery manufacturers have been
depressed, particularly farming and mining.
Similarly, employment is still far below 1979's levels.
About 500,000 fewer jobs were found. in heavy machinery
industries in 1986 than in 1979, shrinking demand having
forced the closing of inefficient plants, complete restructur-
ing of some industries, and the drastic streamlining of others.
The outlook for machinery, except electrical, is for a
recovery in production to new peak levels (except in a few
of [he sectors), rapid productivity growth, and some job
gains-but not enough to even come close to 1979's em=
ployment levels.
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This projection varies among the individual machinery
producers. General industrial machinery (pumps, compres-
sors, industrial ovens, fans, general purpose robots, and so
forth) is projected to post 1.9-percent annual output growth
(somewhat slower than prerecession trends) and to add
about 13,000 jobs to 1986's employment level of 255,000.
Exports rise above 1985's depressed level but imports are
projected to increase their market share from about 22 per-
cent in 1985 to more than 26 percent by 2000. (Imports are
calculated as a percent of the total value of output in con-
stant 1982 dollars.) Miscellaneous nonelectric machinery
(which includes such items as pistons, valves, and carbure-
tors) is projected to have 2.2-percent annual output growth,
which again is slower than past trends, and to add about
26,000 jobs to reach an employment level of 301,000 by
2000. Exports and imports are relatively small in this sector.
The employment level represents a new peak for the indus-
try, because productivity growth is projected to be rather
low; the large number of small firms and the diversity of
products limit widespread automation. Metalworking ma-
chinery is also characterized by low productivity growth
because of the many job shops in the industry, but sluggish
growth in domestic output (because of weak demand and
rising imports) causes employment in the sus projections to
fall from 304,000 in 1986 to 281,000 by 2000.
Computers and office equipment. The computer manufac-
turing industry has been one of the fastest growing U.S.
industries over the last 25 years and, despite rising imports,
it is one of the few manufacturing industries to show a
consistently large trade surplus. Job gains have been rapid
in the industry since the mid-1970's, but since 1984, em-
ployment levels have fallen as the growth of domestic output
slowed. The nature of work in this industry is uncharacteris-
tic of manufacturing industries as a whole as reflected in its
high concentration of scientific personnel and its relatively
low concentration of production workers.Z More than
25 percent of employment in computer manufacturing con-
sists of engineers, technicians, and systems analysts, while
production workers represent only 35 percent. For manufac-
turing as a whole, production workers accounted for 68
percent of all jobs in 1986, although, as noted earlier, occu-
pational shifts away from production-type occupations are
projected to occur.
Output growth for computers is expected to slow consid-
erably over the next 14 years, although the industry is still
projected to be the fastest growing in the economy in terms
of output. The slowdown occurs as the industry matures and
its size makes it difficult to expand at past rates of growth;
future technological advances are not assumed to have the
same dramatic impact as the introduction of the minicom-
puter or the microcomputer. However, demand is expected
to be buoyed by rapidly expanding purchases by private
consumers. Employment is projected to expand by about
85,000 jobs to 503,000 in 2000, with even more of a shift
from production to research and development occupations.
Electrical and electronic equipment. The fastest growing
industries within this sector are projected to be semiconduc-
tors and miscellaneous electronic components. Despite sig-
nificant import growth, domestic production increases in
these industries will rank them among the top five of all
U.S. industries. Also enjoying rapid output growth of more
than 5 percent a year will be the X-ray and electromedical
apparatus industry, as demand for sophisticated health
equipment continues unabated. Defense demand will not
have as much of an impact on the communications equip-
ment industry as in the past, but the slack is expected to be
taken up by increases in private investment purchases of
such items as satellites, fiber optics systems, broadcasting
equipment, and industrial laser systems.
The rapid production gains in these. electrical equipment
industries are expected to lead to some job growth, but it is
almost totally offset by declines in other; related industries.
Overall employment in electrical equipment manufacturing
is projected to remain at 2.1 million jobs.
Table 3. Projected output trends for selected industries,
1986-2000
Average
Fastest growing
annual rate
of change
(percent)
Electronic computing equipment ...............................
7.4
Arrangement of passenger transportation ........................
5.9
Semiconductors and related devices ............................
5.8
Miscellaneous etecUOnic components ...........................
5.5
Amusement and recreation services, n.e.c ........................
5.5
X?ray and other electromedical apparatus ........................
5.2
Optical and ophthalmic products ...............................
5.1
Child day care services . .....................................
5.1
Computer and data processing services .........................
4.9
Electronic home entertainment equipment .......................
4.9
Residential care ...........................................
4.9
Medical instruments and supplies ..............................
4.4
Outpatient facilities and health services, n.e.c . ....................
4.4
Research, management, and consulting services ..................
4.3
Radio and rv communication equipment .........................
4.2
Oil and gas field services ....................................
4.1
Telephone and telegraph apparatus ............................
4.1
Partitions and fixtures .......................................
4.0
Office and miscellaneous furniture and fixtures .....................
4.0
Drugs ..................................................
4.0
Average
Slowest growing or most rapidly declining
annual rate
of change
~
(percent)
New farm housing, alterations, and additions .....................
-3.2
Crude petroleum, natural gas, and gas liquids .....................
-2.0
Footwear except rubber and plastic ............................
-2.0.
New nonfarm housing, n.e.c . .................................
-1.7
Railroad equipment ........................................
-1.3
Luggage, handbags, and,leather products, n.e.c . ..................
-1.0
Metal mining .............................................
- .8
Blast furnaces and basic steel products .........................
- .8
Iron and steel foundries .....................................
- .7
New conservation and development facilities .....................
- .4
Tobacco manufactures ......................................
- .2
Watch, clock, jewelry, and furniture repair ........................
- .2
New local transit facilities .:..................................
- .1
New gas utility and pipeline facilities ............................
- .0
Ship and boat building and repairing ............................
2
Private households ........... ....... .....................
2
Miscellaneous primary and seurondary metals .................:...
3
Mobile homes .........:..................................
4
Jewelry, silverware, and plated ware ............................
.4
New nonbuilding facilities, n.e.c ................................
5
n.e.c. =not elsewhere classified.
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Table 4. Projected employment trends for wage and
salary workers, selected industries, 1986-2000
Average
Fastest grawing
annual rate
of change
(percent)
Computer and data processing services .........................
5.2
Outpatient facilities and health services, n.e.c . :...................
4.6
Personnel supply services ............:......................
4.4
Offices of health practitioners .................................
4.4
Credit reporting and business services, n.e.c ......................
4.1
Legal services ............................................
3.8
Nursing and personal care facilities ............................
3.8
Research, management, and censuning services ...:..............
3.6
Residential care ...........................................
3.5
Miscellaneous publishing ....................................
3.4
Equipment rental and leasing .................................
3.4
Acceunting, auditing, and services, n.e.c .........................
3.2
Personal services, n.e.c . .....................................
3.1
Detective and protective services ..................:...........
3.1
Credit agencies and investment offices ..........................
2.9
Advertising ...............................................
2.9
Services to dwellings and other buildings ........................
2.9
Individual and miscellaneous social services ......................
2.9
Automotive rentals, without drivers ..................:..........
2.7
Arrangement Oi passenger transportation ........................
2.6
Average
Moat rapidly decl(ning ~ -
annual rete
of change
(percent)
Railroad transportation .................................:....
-3.9
Footwear except rubber and plastic ............................
-3.6
Railroad equipment ......................... .........
:,...: ,:
-3.4
Metal mining ................................~.............
-3.1
Miscellaneous primary and secondary metals .....................
-2.3
Luggage, handbags, and leather products, n.e.c . ..................
-2.3
Blast furnaces and basic steel products ..........................
-2.2
Iron and steel foundries .... ........ ....... ...........
....
-2.1
Electronic home entertainment equipment .......................
-2.1
Agricunuralchemicels ......................................
-1.9
Dairy products ............................................
-1.9
Petroleum refining ..........................::.:...........
-1.9
Grain mill products and fats and oils ............................
-1.8
Tobaxo manufactures ......................................
-1.8
Tires and inner tubes .......................................
-1.8
Plastics materials and synthetice ..............................
-1.7
Coal mining ..............................................
-1.6
Ship and boat building and repairing ............................
-1.6
Sugar and confectionery products ..............................
-1.6
arc~an ...................................:..............
-1.s
n.e.c. =not elsewhere classified.
Transportation equipment. et.s projects that employment
in the auto industry will fall below the 1986 level, as taper-
ing demand and higher productivity offset the trend towazd
more domestic-based production of foreign automobiles.
Domestic production is expected to slow to about 2.0 per-
cent ayear, .somewhat below pre-1979 rates of growth and
trailing the 2.4-percent projected growth rate of ctvP.
The slowdown reflects a projected absolute decline in the
size of the 16- to 34-yeaz-old population, which accounts for
the majority of first-time car buyers. This dampening trend
offsets the expectation that there will be a lazger number of
older car buyers, who generally buy higher priced cars. At
the same time, investment in new auto plants with the latest
automated production techniques leads to a projected 3.2-
percent gain in productivity. Slower demand and high pro-
ductivity outweigh the assumption that Japanese automakers
will expand their U.S. operations-a likely event as the
rising value of the yen relative to the dollar forces Japanese
car prices to less competitive levels. Imports (in dollar
terms) are projected to hold a slightly smaller share of the
market than at present, about 22 percent in 2000, as imports
from Japan shrink but those from the Third World rise. In
total, domestic output of the motor vehicle industry is pro-
jected to grow only about 2.0 percent a year during the
1986-2000 period (compared to 2.4 percent for civP), and
employment to fall from 865,000 to 749,000 jobs.
The aircraft industry is expected to see production gains
of only 0.8 percent a year, considerably slower than recent
trends. The turnabout mainly results from the assumption of
tapering defense demand following current high levels, but
it is tempered somewhat by accelerated export growth. The
industry is expected to be able to remain competitive in the
export market through cost-cutting and productivity im-
provements-jobs are projected to shrink from 339,000 in
1986 to 274,000 in 2000. Similar trends apply in the aircraft
and missile engines and equipment industry-an increase in
exports buoy output growth but the numbers of jobs fall
from 385,000 in 1986 to 330,000 in 2000.
Instruments and related products. Demand is projected to
be very high for many products in this industry, especially
for optical instruments (in particulaz, spectrographs and
electron microscopes), medical instruments, measuring and
controlling devices, and engineering and scientific instru-
ments. These industries have typically experienced very
-rapid output growth, and continued strong demand reflects
the assumed high levels of research and development spend-
ing by U.S. manufacturers on this type of equipment in the
future. Employment will grow from 707;000 in 1986 to
771,000 in 2000, or about 9 percent over the entire period.
Primary and fabricated metals. Primary metals have suf-
fered by far the largest job contraction of all the manufactur-
ing sectors in the 1979-86 period, shrinking by 40 percent.
Afl the primary metals industries have been affected, but
basic steel and iron and steel foundries have lost the most
jobs. The 1980-82 recessions accelerated along-term de-
cline in steel-the peak employment year for steel was 1965
and for production, 1974-and the industry closed many of
its plants and cut production and jobs drastically. Large
capital expenditures would be necessary to improve the
competitiveness of raw steel production in the United
States, but recent financial losses by most of the large steel
companies have led instead to reduced capital expenditures.
Also, this industry is faced by worldwide excess capacity,
making needed capital improvements very risky.
The industry's declines aze projected to ease in the future
because most of the more inefficient mills have already
closed, but no rebound is anticipated. U.S. steel output in
real terms is projected to fall -0.8 percent a year over the
1986-2000 period (compared to -8.9 percent during the
1979-86 period), and employment to deline by -2.2 per-
cent annually (versus -10.3 percent over the 1979-86 pe-
riod); (The year 1986 may have been atypical because of a
strike in the industry, but clearly, long-term trends are
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sharply negative.) Imports are projected to rise in value from
22.5 percent of total output in 1985 to almost 31 percent by
2000. Most of the import increases are expected to be in the
form of semifinished steel for further processing in U.S.
finishing mills, which are relatively more efficient than [he
Nation's raw steel manufacturing plants. Demand for steel
and other primary metals will be sharply limited by the
continued shift to other inputs (such as plastics and com-
posites) in transportation equipment, machinery, and other
manufactured goods.
Fabricated metal products lost 285,000 jobs between
1979. and 1986, and the sector is projected to lose another
120,000 by 2000. Among the fabricated metals industries,
structural metal products of the type used in construction are
projected to post output growth at about the same rate as
new construction, 1.7 percent a year, but more efficient
production techniques will result in continued employment
declines. Metal coating, engraving, and allied services is the
only fabricated metals industry projected to add jobs. It is
expected to enjoy fairly strong output growth (2.9 percent a
year), because about 10 percent of its output is purchased by
the fast-growing electronic components industry. Productiv-
ity advances in this industry are limited by the large number
of small firms and by product diversity.
Food products. Overall output of food products is pro-
jected to grow slower than past trends, reflecting the future
slowdown in population growth. Changing demographics
and consumer preferences will boost demand for higher
valued food items, such as prepared convenience foods,
while limiting growth for others, such as sugar and confec-
tionery products.
The meat products industry is projected to register 1.6-
percent annual output growth, with exports rising faster than
domestic consumption. Canned, dried, and frozen foods is
Table 5. Industries projected to generate the largest num-
bers of new wage and salary jobs, 1986-2000
Industry
New lobs
(thousands)
Eating and drinking places ..................................
2,486
Offices of health practitioners ................................
1,389
New and repair construction .................................
890
Nursing and personal care facilities ...........................
847
Personnel supply services ..................................
834
State and local government education .........................
784
Machinery and equipment wholesalers .........................
614
Computer and data processing services ........................
612
Grocery stores ...........................................
598
Hotels and other lodging places ..............................
570
State and local general government, n.e.c . ..................
537
Legal services .........................................
519
Outpatient facilities and health services, n.e.c.
513
Research, management, end consulting services ..............
513
Credit reporting and business services, n.e.c .................
507
Credit agencies and investment offices ......................
495
Hospitals, Private .........................................
475
Department stores ........................................
386
Real estate .............................................
348
Services to dwellings and other buildings .......................
339
n.e.c. =not elsewhere classified.
projected to have the fastest output growth of all the food
sectors, 2.2 percent a year. Strong demand for high-priced
frozen dinners and other frozen specialties will more than
offset diminishing purchases of canned fruits and vegeta-
bles. The market for alcoholic beverages is expected to
erode further as consumers continue to change their drinking
habits. Output of domestic beer, wine, and liquor has shown
no growth in real terms since 1979, and is projected to
recover to only 1.0-percent annual growth over the 1986-
2000 period. This compares to 3- to 4-percent average
growth for the industry prior to 1979. Soft drinks and flavor-
ings (including carbonated waters) are projected to reap
some of the benefits of flat beer and liquor sales, but be-
cause of slow growth in both the teen population and the
number of fast food establishments, output of soft drinks
will grow much slower than .historically.
Efficiencies in food production are projected to continue
to increase over the riexf decade, especially in grain mill
products and in dairy products. Employment has been de-
clining or has 'remained essentially unchanged in most food
industries over the past 25 years, and this trend is expected
to continue. Meat products, the largest food industry in terms
of employment, is 'projected to add 10,000 jobs to reach
382,000 by 2000, but ~ overall, food industries combined are
estimated to lose 161,000 jobs between 1986 and 2000.
Apparel and textile.. ?Rising real disposable income will
boost consumes demand for apparel, but a larger proportion
of output will come from foreign suppliers. Clothing im-
ports are expected to claim a 37-percent market share by
2000, compared to an already high 28 percent in 1985.
Despite rising imports, domestic production of apparel is
projected to expand by 1.1 percent a year, because of the
strong consumer demand and because continued cost-
cutting measures will keep U.S. apparel prices competitive.
Nevertheless,' employment in the industry is projected to fall
from 921,000 in 1986 "to 763,000 in 2000, a cutback of
158,000 jobs. "
Textile mill'psoducts will benefit from both the steady
growth in domestic apparel production and from the contin-
ued diffusion of new, automated technologies. Although
imports are expected to increase their market share slightly,
U.S. textile manufacturers are projected to be able to enjoy
a healthy expansion of production. Floor covering mills are
expected to be the fastest growing of the textile industries,
with output rising 3.0 percent a year. Employment in tex-
tiles will continue to fall, however. About 300,000 jobs
have been cut back in textile industries since the peak year
1973, and 99,000 fewer jobs are expected by 2000.
Printing and publishing. Printing and publishing is one of
the few manufacturing sectors to have registered consistent
job gains in the last few years. Even during the recession,
both output and employment increased steadily. Despite the
introduction of electronic composition systems and other
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new technologies in the larger firms, employment gains in
printing and publishing have actually accelerated from past
rates to average 2.6 percent a year over the 1979-86 period.
The explanation for this growth lies in sharp increases in
demand for new trade journals and newsletters, catalogs and
directories, software manuals, new specialty magazines
such as health and fitness and regional magazines, commer-
cial printing and business forms, elementary school text-
books, and greeting cards. Also, the industry encompasses
a large number of small, widely scattered firms, which often
have only limited capacity to invesi in the newer technolo-
gies. Occupational. shifts also are occurring within the print-
ing trades industries, from fewer typesetters and other craft-
workers to more front-office personnel such as writers,
editors, managers, and salesworkers.
Growth is projected to continue to be strong through the
1990's, and all of the printing and publishing industries are
projected to show increases in both: output and employment
between 1986 and 2000. The most rapid, growth will be for
miscellaneous publishing, with 3.6-percent.,per year output
gains and 3.4-percent employment growth.
Chemicals and allied products. The chemical industry en-
compasses avariety of products, ,.each,. with a somewhat
different outlook. Industrial chemicals are projected to con-
tinue their upswing from the 1980-82 recessions, but future
expansion is limited. Once an important export industry, the
domestic chemical sector has seen a weakening in world-
wide demand as many foreign countries .have invested in
their own chemical manufacturing facilities. In contrast,
substantial output growth is projected for plastics materials
and synthetics, reflecting for the most part gains for plastics
and resins (such as carbon fiber resin for autos and air-
planes), but little or no growth in synthetic fibers. The
plastics materials and synthetics industry traditionally has
enjoyed high productivity, however, and employment is
expected to continue to fall despite sharp output advances.
The fastest growing chemical industry, and indeed one of
the fastest growing industries in the whole economy in
terms of output, is drugs and pharmaceutical products. Ad-
vances in biomedical research have led to a vast array of
important new drugs, and it is expected that,these will be
adopted widely incoming years. Also, an expanding elderly
population which spends more of its income on medicines
than any other age group will boost demand., Output of drug
products is projected to grow 4.0 percent a year, and em-
ployment is expected to rise by 17,000 to .224,000 in 2000.
Service-producing industries
Overall trends for [he service-producing sector are pro-
jected to be vastly different from those in the goods sector.
Payroll job growth will be very strong for almost all of the
service-producing industries, particularly health services,
business services, and trade. Service-producing employ-
ment will constitute about 80 percent of all wage and salary
jobs by the year 2000. More than 20_ million new jobs are ~ .
projected, to be added to the service-producing sector be-
tween 1986 and 2000.
Transportation. In recent years, deregulation has boosted
employment in the air transportation industry as many
smaller firms entered the market and price competition stim-
ulated demand. But, in the long-run, consolidation and take-
overs are expected to dampen the rate of job growth. Em-
ployment has been growing by more than 7 percent a year
since 1983, but future increases are expected to be limited
to 1.7 percent annually. This represents a gain of 151,000
jobs between 1986 and 2000. The slowdown occurs as un-
successful competitors cut back on routes or merge with
larger companies.
Along with the recent rise in airline transportation output
and employment, there has been a corresponding boom in
the arrangement of passenger transportation (travel agen-
cies). With the proliferation and constant revision of new
routes and new fares, the traveler has turned from the airline
itself to an independent travel agent to make reservations.
Employment in travel agencies and independent ticket of-
fices rose from 99,000 in 1980 (the first year for which
separate data were available for the industry) to 158,000 in
1986, and an additional 69,000 jobs are projected to be
added by 2000.
Demand for truck transportation is generally dependent
on the state of the economy; the value of trucking output is
projected to post 2.2-percent annual growth over the 1986-
2000 period. Consolidations are anticipated to have an im-
pact in this industry as well, and projected employment
growth is limited to 1.5 percent annually. Greater effi-
ciencies in scheduling, marketing, and cost control are ex-
pected to make possible greater gains in output than in
employment.
Communications. The breakup of the telephone service
monopoly in 1983 thus far has not led to real output gains,
and employment in communications (except broadcasting)
is beginning to edge downward from the 1.1 million mark
maintained through most of the 1970's and 1980's. Compe-
tition in the 1990's is expected to lead to an employment
decline of about 121,000 (or -0.9 percent a year), but real
output is projected to advance 3.9 percent a year as demand
for telecommunications surges.
Radio and television broadcasting has seen the develop-
ment of cable Tv systems, which provided a further boost to
already expanding output and employment. Growth should
taper as the market becomes saturated, and the projections
show a deceleration to 1.7-percent annual job gains during
the 1986-2000 period, compared to 2.6 percent over the
1982-86 period.
Wholesale trade. Over the projection period, wholesale
trade is expected to add 1.5 million jobs, about 600,000 of
them among machinery and equipment suppliers. This gain
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is a consequence of the earlier described assumptions of
strong capital investment and export growth in these manu-
facturing industries.
Retail trade. In retail trade, 4.9 million jobs will be
added. Although a very sizable number, the rate of gain
projected for retail jobs falls considerably below historical
trends for two reasons: (1) the trade division generally mir-
rors overall economic patterns, and as growth in the labor
force and total employment moderates, retail trade can be
expected to do likewise; and (2) a large part of the past
additions to retail trade employment have been part-time
workers, about 40 percent during the 1973-85 period,3 but
.trends indicate that this growth in the part-time labor force
may not continue indefinitely.
As the following tabulation shows, part-time employment
is mainly concentrated among teenagers and women in the
25-to-54 and 55-and-older age groups:
Part-time workers, 1986?
Number
(thousands)
Percent
of total
Total .....................
20,598
100.0
16-19:
Men .................
2,326
11.3
Women ...............
2,468
12.0
20-24:
Men .................
1,300
6.3
Women ...............
1,841
8.9
25-54:
Men .................
1,758
8.5
Women ...............
7,399
35.9
55 and over:
Men .................
1,438
7.0
Women ...............
2,068
10.0
However, the supply of these workers is projected to be very
limited in the future. The teenage labor force will show a net
increase of only 195,000 between 1986 and 2000-consist-
ing of an absolute decline of 1.5 million over the 1986-92
period (resulting from the "birth dearth" of the 1960's and
1970's) and an increase of 1.7 million over the 1992-2000
period (reflecting the larger numbers of births to baby-boom
parents in the 1980's). The net impact of teenage labor force
changes is to shrink this age group from 6.9 percent of all
workers in 1986 to 6.0 percent by 2000.
Additionally, data clearly indicate a declining preference
by women for part-time work. The following tabulation
shows women voluntarily working part time as a percentage
of all employed women for selected recent years:
Percent
part-time
1976
..........................
24.1
1978
..........................
23.7
1980
..........................
23.2
1982
..........................
22.9
1984
..........................
21.9
1986
..........................
21.7
Retailers in some areas have already found it difficult to
staff their part-time positions, and there is much discussion
about alternative sources of labor, such as older workers, to
fill these jobs. This might be a partial solution in the longer
term, as the labor force age 55 and over is projected to
increase dramatically between 1986 and 2000. However, it
does not seem a promising interim solution unless many
early retirees can be induced to return to part-time work
within the next few years. Although the number of workers
aged 55 to 64 is projected to increase by 1.7 million between
1986 and 2000-an unprecedented addition-it does not
come close to matching the' expected increase in retail trade
jobs. Furthermore, :a11 of the increase in the labor force of
older persons begins to occur only after 1995.
The projected' employment data in this article do not dis-
tinguish between part-time and full-time jobs, but an exam-
ination of the average workweek can provide some indica-
tion of expected trends. Average weekly hours in retail trade
dropped from 35.6 in 1972 to 29.2 in 1986 (and to 25.6 in
eating and drinking places), clearly a reflection of the
growth in part-time employment. This decline, however, is
beginning to moderate and_is assumed to slow further in the
projections. The rate of decline in the workweek averaged
-0.8 percent a year from 1.972 to 1979 for retail trade (other
than eating and drinking places) and -2.1 percent for eating
and drinking establishments. Over the more recent period
1979-86, the workweek decline averaged -0.7 and -0.6
percent, respectively. The projected decline is only -0.2
percent a year for retail trade and -0.3 percent for eating
and drinking establishments.
Among individual retail industries, eating and drinking
places will have the most growth in jobs, 2.5 million, but
the rate of increase will be much slower than historically. In
particular, the proliferation of fast-food establishments,
which generated many jobs in the past, should taper off as
the market becomes saturated and as population growth
slows, especially that of the teenage population. Some addi-
tional growth is expected for eating and drinking places as
the practice of contracting out food service operations
reaches more markets, such as hospitals, residential institu-
tions, and schools.
Grocery stores are projected to add 598,000 new jobs by
2000, reflecting both a trend toward providing more labor-
intensive services (such as carry-out prepared meals, meat
and deli counters, fish counters, and salad bars), as well as
the continued expansion of store hours. Department stores
will gain 386,000 jobs, and miscellaneous shopping goods
stores are projected to add 339,000. (This latter sector in-
cludes such establishments as sporting goods, jewelry,
book, gift, and stationery stores.)
Finance and insurance. Banking, credit agencies, and in-
vestment offices should enjoy very substantial rates of out-
put growth, but consolidation and technological advances in
automatic banking and other financial transactions will
sharply slow past rates of employment gain. The output
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growth is expected as demand'for financial services contin-
ues unabated, although the projected rates of increase are
not expected to match those of recent years. In 1985 and
1986, falling interest rates and a bull market caused a surge
in mortgage banking services and brokerage services. The
projected long-term rates of output growth for these services
are more in line with past longer term trends. Employment
in finance is expected to grow less rapidly than in the past,
but even so, there are projected to be 262,000 more jobs in
banking, 495,000 more in credit agencies and investment
offices, and 134,000 more in security and commodity bro-
kers and exchanges by the year 2000. It should be noted that
the distinctions among these sectors are blurring, as deregu-
lation eliminates many restrictions on financial services.
The value of insurance services is projected to grow at
about the same rate as crrr, 2.3 percent a year during the
1986-2000 period. Because of greater efficiencies in com-
puterized underwriting, job gains will be limited-only
168,000 for insurance carriers and 214,000 for independent
agents and brokers.
Services division. The major industry division, services,
is composed of many different types of activities-business,
health, professional, recreational, personal, and educa-
tional, to name a few. Overall, services has been and is
projected to be the fastest growing division in terms of
employment, adding 10 million new jobs between 1986 and
2000. In 1986, it accounted for about 23 percent of all
nonfarm wage and salary jobs; in 2000, it will account for
more than 27 percent. More than 32 million payroll jobs will
be in the services division in the year 2000.
Despite such awesome growth, the projected gains do not
match past increases, due to the overall slowdown of labor
force and employment growth expected in the 1990's. Over
the period 1972-86, the services division added 10.4 mil-
lion new jobs; its rate of growth averaged 4.5 percent a year.
The projected rate of increase 1986-2000 is 2.7 percent a year.
Following is a discussion of some of the major industries
within the services division.
Business and professional services.. For the current set of
projections, it has been possible because of an expansion in
Bt.s data series to study more of the detailed business serv-
ices industries to try to get a clearer picture of where growth
will occur. As can be seen in table 6, virtually all the business
services industries are projected to have very rapid rates of
output and employment growth, much faster than the in-
creases in SNP or overall employment. The development of
new types of specialized services continues to accelerate,
thereby boosting employment in the business services sector.
The most rapidly growing business services industry and,
in fact, the most rapidly growing of all the industries in the
projections system in terms of employment, will be com-
puter and data processing services. The need for systems
design and analysis, programming, and software develop-
ment is certain to be very strong, reflecting the demand for
specialized systems by business and government as well as
the proliferation of packaged software for a wide variety of
users. The heavy investment in computer-assisted design
and manufacturing techniques which is assumed for the
1990's inevitably will lead to a sharp increase in demand for
computer specialists. Employment in the industry is pro-
jected to swell by 5.2 percent a year, just about doubling its
1986 level to reach 1.2 million by 2000.
The business services industry with the biggest absolute
increase in employment will be personnel supply services,
gaining more than 800,000 jobs over 1986's 1.0 million
level by the year 2000. This industry has been one of the
most rapidly expanding in recent years, almost doubling in
employment over the period 1982-86.
Several factors help explain the phenomenal growth in
personnel services. Most important has been the expansion
in the temporary help industry.5 The demand for temporary
help has been very strong because of lower fringe benefit
costs-"temps" typically have fewer benefits than perma-
nent employees-and because of employers' need to meet
peak workloads under uncertain economic conditions. On
the supply side, many workers have been willing to work as
temporaries because of the opportunities for flexible
scheduling of assignments and the chance for skill enhance-
ment. The temporary field is not limited only to office
workers; the market is expanding to include industrial, med-
ical, managerial, and engineering and technical occupations
as well. The projected rate of job growth for temporary help,
however, is not expected to match the gains of 1982-86
because a large part of that surge was associated with cycli-
cal recovery from the 1980-82 downturns. Despite a slow-
down, however, growth of the temporary help industry will
still be very strong.
Another factor contributing to growth in personnel supply
services has been the trend by government to contract out
operations previously performed by public employees. The
operation of private prisons under contract with State and
local governments is an example. The rise in public facilities
management by private firms will foster additional growth
in the personnel supply industry.
Contracting out, not only by government agencies but
also by private business establishments, has also had an
impact on the building services and protective services in-
dustries. In addition, the office and commercial building
boom in recent years boosted the demand for contract clean-
ing and guard services. Future gains should be slower as
construction tapers and the trend toward contracting out
levels off. Thus, projected increases for the services to
dwellings industry and the detective and protective services
industry are not expected to match historical rates. Some
new growth is anticipated for protective services in the field
of mechanical protective devices and polygraph services,
but these two areas are relatively small compared to building
guard services.
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The development of new services should keep demand for
the research, management, and consulting services industry
very strong. Included in this industry are independent labo-
ratories for research and development (nonmedical, and not
manufacturing auxiliaries), market research, personnel
training or management, economic research, efficiency ex-
perts, lobbyists, and other business consultants. Output is
projected to grow 4.3 percent a year during the 1986-2000
period, a rate second only to that of computer services
among all the business services industries. Some 513,000
new jobs are projected to be added to 1986's level of
788,000, an increase of nearly two-thirds over the period
1986-2000.
The equipment rental and leasing sector shows very high
projected output and employment growth rates (ranking
among the top 20 for employment) primarily because of
video tape rentals. The rest of this industry includes the
leasing of tools and heavy construction equipment, which is
not expected to be ahigh-growth service. (Computer leasing
is not included here; rather, it is accounted for either in the
computer services industry or in the computer manufactur-
ing industry.)
The credit reporting and business services not-elsewhere-
classified sector has very rapid projected growth primarily
because of the "not-elsewhere-classified" designation. All
the new business services that do not fit any other category
are included in this industry. Examples are mailing list
compilers, word processing services (typing), building in-
spectors, tourist and convention bureaus, restaurant reserva-
tion services, speakers' bureaus, merchandise liquidators,
check validating services, and so on. Historically, employ-
ment growth in this industry has been very sharp, averaging
about 60,000 new jobs each year since 1983. Future gains
for miscellaneous business services should be more limited
as the size of the industry reaches some upward limit. Em-
ployment increases in credit reporting and miscellaneous
business services over the next 14 years are projected to
average about 36,000 a year, for a total employment level
of 1.2 million by 2000.
The legal services industry has been booming, reflecting
the increasing incidence of liability litigation; corporate
mergers and acquisitions; high divorce levels; the geo-
graphic expansion of law firms; a greater degree of legal
specialization within firms; and an increase in litigation in
general. In addition, trends in the industry indicate a shift
from self-etployed workers toward more wage and salary
personnel. Payroll employment in legal services grew by
7.4 percent each year between 1972 and 1986, while the
number of self-employed (plus unpaid family workers)
posted only 0.7-percent annual growth. These trends-very
rapid demand growth and fewer self-employed lawyers-
are projected to continue in the legal services industry. An
additional 519,000 payroll jobs are projected for the legal
services industry by the year 2000. This represents a 3.8-
percent annual rate of increase, ranking legal services
among the top 10 fastest growing employment industries. A
rising proportion of these jobs are expected to be filled by
legal assistants, rather than attorneys.
Like factory automation in manufacturing industries, of-
fice automation in business (and financial) service industries
will have a significant impact on the occupational structure
of those industries. It is expected that administrative support
occupations, mainly in the clerical field, will account for a
much smaller share of the work force. In some cases, even
the absolute numbers of such jobs will decline, for example,
stenographers, payroll and timekeeping clerks, typists and
word processors, data entry keyers, and statistical clerks.
Health services. Industries providing medical care are un-
dergoing very pronounced changes having important impli-
cations for future growth. Cost containment policies have
halted-at least temporarily-the expansion of hospital out-
put and employment, and more of the services once per-
formed in a hospital now are being performed in doctors'
offices and in outpatient facilities. Patient care is generally
cheaper in these centers than in traditional hospitals, provid-
ing an impetus for future growth. New group practices such
as emergency care clinics, surgicenters, and walk-in treat-
ment centers, are becoming commonplace. Often these es-
tablishments perform their own radiological and laboratory
work. This shift from hospital to outpatient care is projected
to continue and, coupled with an increasing demand for
medical care services, will significantly boost employment
in establishments classified as offices of health practi-
tioners. It is projected that 1.4 million new payroll jobs will
be added to this industry between 1986 and 2000, reflecting
a rate of growth of 4.4 percent a year.
Demand for health care is projected to be very strong in
the 1990's because of the aging of the population and be-
cause of dramatic advances in medical technologies. The
following tabulations illustrate the large projected increase
in the elderly population and the reasons why this factor is
so significant for the health industries:
Population
(millions)
As percent
of total
1970 .............. 20.1 1.4
1975 .............. 22.7 1.8
1980 .............. 25.7 2.3
1985 ............... 28.5 2.7
9.8 0.7
10.5 .8
11.3 1.0
11.9 1.1
1982-83 health expenditures
as a percent of total expenditures
All consumer
units
Total health care ....... 4.4
Medical services ..... 2.4
Drugs and supplies ... .7
Health insurance ..... 1.2
Consumer unit head
age 65 or over
9.9
4.1
2.0
3.8
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Table 6. Employment by selected industry, 1972, 1979, 1986, and projected to 2000
Employment
Annual rate of
Standard
(thousands)
change, 1986-20001
Industry
Industrlal
Pro)ected
2000
(Percen
t)
Classiflcatlon
9
9
986
,
1972
1
7
1
Employment
Output
Low
Moderate
Hlgh
Total ...............................................
-
84,549
101,353
111,623
126,432
133,030
137,533
1.3
2.4
Agriculture ................................................
01,2,7,8,9
3,523
3,401
3,252
2,784
2,917
3,009
- .8
2.4
Livestock and livestock products ..............................
Ot pt., 02 pt.
1,365
988
848
629
677
745
-1.6
1.4
Olher agricultural products ..................................
Ot pt., 02 pt.
1,699
1,785
1,534
1,045
1,120
1,087
-2.2
3.0
Agricultural services, forestry, and fishing .......................
07,08,09
459
628
875
1,110
1,120
1,177
1.8
3.0
Private households ..........................................
88
1,693
1,326
1,241
1,122
1,215
1,234
- .1
.2
Nonfarm self-employed and unpaid family workers ..................
-
5,819
7,145
8,086
8,972
9,742
10,277
1.3
=
Nonfarm wage and salary ..............................
-
73,514
_89,481
99,044
113,554
119,156
123,013
1.3
-
Mining .........................................:.:.......
10-14
628
958
783
672
724
779
- .6
- .2
Metal mining .............................................
10
83
101
41
20
27
29
-3.1
- .8
Coal mining .............................................
11,12
161
259
176
140
141
149
-1.6
2.2
Crude petroleum, natural gas, and gas liquids ....................
131,2
143
198
224
169
184
192
-1.4
-2.0
Oil and gas field services ...................................
138
125
276
233
253
271
302
1.1
4.1
Nonmetallic minerals, except fuels ............................
14
116
124
109
91
102
106
- .5
1.4
Construction ..............................................
15,16,17
3,889
4,463
4,904
5,643
5,794
6,077
1.2
1.4
Manufacturing ............................'.................
20-39
19,151
21,042
18,994
16,833
18,160
19,050
- .3
2.3
Durable manufacturing .....................................
24,25,32-39
11,050
12,762
11,244
9,654
10,731
11,193
- .3
2.7
Lumber and wood products ................................
24
726
767
711
603
693
763
- .2
1.9
Logging camps and logging contractors .......:.....:........
241
69
89
83
67
71
72
-1.1
2.7
Sawmills and planing mills ...............................
242
225
237
194
137
173
188
- .8
1.5
Millwork and structural wood members, n.e.c ..............:...
2431,4,9
122
150
184
209
227
254
1.5
1.7
Veneer and plywood ...................................
2435,6
75
77
61
44
57
68
- .5
2.6
Wood containers and miscellaneous wood products .....:......
244,9
124
132
118
96
106
109
- .8
2.1
.Mobile homes ........................................
2451
80
57
49
34
42
50
-1.1
.4
Furniture and fixtures ....................................
25
484
498
497
515
563
607
.9
3.1
Household furniture ......................:.............
251
337
329
294
280
311
351
.4
2.2
Partitions and fixtures ....................................
254
56
65
72
72
80
81
.7
4.0
Office and miscellaneous furniture and fixtures ................
252,3,9
91
104
131
163
172
175
2.0
4.0
Stone, clay, and glass products .............................
32
678
710
586
483
535
560
- .6
1.4
Glass and glass products ................................
321,2,3
193
199
155
121
138
146
- .8
1.2
Concrete, gypsum, and plaster products .....................
327
210
216
209
184
206
217
- .1
1.5
Stone, clay, and miscellaneous mineral products ..............
325,6,8,9
243
262
199
162
173
179
-1.0
1.6
Primary metal industries .....................:............
33
1,173
1,254
753
489
574
646
-1.9
.1
Blast furnaces and basic steel products .....................
331
568
571
275
166
202
229
-2.2
- .8
Iron and steel foundries .................................
332
219
241
131
81
97
109
-2.1
- .7
Miscellaneous primary and secondary metals .................
334,9
36
51
42
25
30
37
-2.3
.3
Aluminum rolling and drawing .............................
3353,4,5
-
76
65
53
55
60
-1.2
1.1
Nonferrous wire drawing and insulating .....................
3357
85
89
77
60
68
71
- .9
1.6
Aluminum foundries ....................................
3361
46
58
53
40
45
46
-1.2
1.4
Fabricated metal products .................................
34
1,547
1,718
1,433
1,172
1,313
1,361
- .6
1.8
Metal cans and shipping containers ....................:...
341
85
80
58
45
50
52
-1.1
1.3
Cutlery, hand tools, and hardware .........................
342
161
184
136
115
127
130
- .5
1.9
Plumbing and nonelectric heating equipment .....:...........
343
71
76
61
53
56
59
- .6
1.4
fabricated structural metal products ........................
344
444
523
438
340
385
394
- .9
1.7
Screw machine products, bolts, rivets, and so forth .............
345
100
116
93
73
84
88
- .7
1.6
Forgings .............................................
3462,3
-
63
39
34
38
41
- .1
1.0
Automotive stampings ..................................
3465
104
118
105
75
91
104
-1.0
1.4
Stampings, except automotive ............................
3466,9
-
124
100
85
BB
90
- .9
2.4
Metal coating, engraving, and allied services .................
347
88
107
110
i 12
126
129
1.0
2.9
Ordnance, except vehicles and missiles .....................
348
82
64
77
67
74
77
- .2
2.7
Miscellaneous fabricated metal products .....................
349
224
264
216
174
193
197
- .8
1.9
Machinery, except electrical ................................
35
1,889
2,485
2,059
1,951
2,129
2,171
2
4.5
Engines and turbines ................... ~'...............
351
115
145
102
85
93
92
- .6
1.4
Farm and garden machinery .............................
352
135
182
91
80
80
85
-1.0
1.2
.Construction machinery .................................
3531
139
156
BO
71
76
76
- .4
1.8
Mining and oilfield machinery .............................
3532,3
65
120
66
74
83
95
1.4
2.0
Materials handling machinery and equipment .................
3534,5,6,7
89
106
79
75
87
92
.7
3.1
Metalworking machinery .................................
354
286
369
304
250
281
286
- .6
1.8
Special industry machinery ...............................
355
177
205
159
130
140
138
- .9
.9
General industrial machinery ..............................
356
267
329
255
242
268
273
.3
1.9
Electronic computing equipment ...........................
3573
182
319
418
466
503
510
1.3
7.4
Office and accounting machines ...........................
3572,4,6,9
77
78
57
43
51
49
- .7
3.7
Refrigeration and service industry machinery .................
358
164
168
171
149
166
169
- .2
2.9
Miscellaneous nonelectrical machinery ......................
359
191
286
275
287
301
306
.7
2.2
Electrical and electronic equipment ..........................
36
1,813
2,117
2,124
1,,927
2,128
2,222
.0
3.9
Electric distributing equipment ............................
361
128
126
107
79
99
110
- .6
2.4
Electrical industrial apparatus .............................
362
209
251
187
159
175
178
- .5
2.0
Household appliances ..................................
363
187
178
135
112
121
132
- .8
2.5
Electric lighting and wiring equipment .......................
364
204
225
196
163
185
191
- .4
1.6
Electronic home entertainment equipment ...................
365
139
115
82
61
61
67
-2.1
4.9
Telephone and telegraph apparatus ........................
3661
160
165
127
94
116
132
- .6
4.1
Radio and rv communication equipment .....................
3662
299
357
505
472
542
585
.5
4.2
Electronic tubes .......................................
3671,2,3
46
42
40
26
34
36
-1.1
.6
Semiconductors and related devices .......................
3674
115
201
268
280
289
276
.5
5.8
Miscellaneous electronic components .......................
3675,6,7,8,9
193
281
323
343
352
354
.6
5.5
Storage batteries and engine electrical pans ..................
3691,4
94
118
95
74
86
89
- .7
2.3
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Table 6. Continued-Employment by selected industry, 1972, 1979, 1986, and projected to 2000
Employment
Annual rete of
Standard
(thousands)
change, 1986-20001
Industry
Industrlal
pi
ted 2000
(percent)
Classlflcetlon
1972
1979
1966
olee
Low
Moderate
Hlgh
Employment
Output
X-ray and other electromedical apparatus ....................
3693
-
26
32
41
45
46
2.5
5.2
Electrical equipment and supplies, n.e.c . ....................
3692,9
-
30
27
23
24
25
- .9
3.0
Trans ortation ui ment
P eq P .............................
37
1,790
2,077
2,016
1,516
1,697
1,742
-1.2
1.7
Motor vehicles ........................................
371
875
990
865
679
749
770
-1.0
2.0
Motor vehicles and car bodies ...........................
3111
415
463
396
307
335
343
-1.2
1.9
Motor vehicle parts and accessories ......................
3714
383
441
387
306
340
350
- .9
2.1
Truck and bus bodies, trailers, and motor homes .............
3713,5,6
77
86
82
67
75
78
- .7
3.0
Aircraft ..............................................
3721
287
333
339
243
274
282
-1.5
.8
Aircraft and missile engines and equipment ..................
3724,8,3764,9
224
298
385
282
330
339
-1.1
2.0
Guided missiles and space vehicles ........................
3761
76
81
153
120
124
129
-1.5
.8
Ship and boat building and repairing ........................
373
193
226
185
129
147
151
-1.6
.2
Railroad equipment ....................................
374
49
74
28
16
17
17
-3.4
-1.3
Miscellaneous transportation equipment .............:.......
375,9
86
74
61
47
55
55
- .7
3.4
Instruments and related products ............................
38
517
691
707
692
771
791
.6
3.7
Engineering and scientific instruments ......................
381
65
72
84
89
94
g6
.8
3.3
Measuring and controlling devices .........................
382
160
236
246
227
267
272
.6
3.4
Optical and ophthalmic products ...........................
383,5
55
77
71
74
79
80
8
5.1
Medical instruments and supplies ..........................
384
90
144
180
204
226
234
1.6
4.4
Photographic equipment and supplies ......................
386
117
134
115
90
97
102
-1.2
2.9
Miscellaneous manufacturing ...............................
39
433
445
362
306
329
329
- .7
1.9
Jewelry, silverware, and plated ware .......................
391
52
61
54
50
52
48
- .3
.4
Toys and sporting goods ................................
394
126
121
94
76
85
86
- .7
3.1
Manufactured products, n.e.c . ............................
393,5,6,9
255
263
214
179
192
195
- .8
1.9
Nondurable manufacturing ..................................
20-23,26-31
8,101
8,280
7,750
7,179
7,429
7,857
- .3
1.8
Food and kindred products ................................
20
1,745
1,733
1,617
1,421
1,456
1,512
- .7
1.5
Meat products ........................................
201
347
358
372
380
382
390
.2
1.6
Dairy products .....................................:..
202
217
180
163
.,123
.. 125'
129
-1.9
1.2
Canned, dried, and frozenfDods ...........................
203
255
261
238
227
235
252
- .1
2.2
Grain mill products and fats and oils ........................
204,7
172
189
156
120
122
124
-1.8
1.7
Bakery products .......................................
205
258
231
210
180
182
188
-1.0
.9
Sugar and confectionery products .........................
206
117
110
97
76
78
82
-1.6
.5
Alcoholic beverages ....................................
2082,3,4,5
91
85
7t
56
59
64
-1.3
1.0
SoN drinks and flavorings ................................
2086,7
137
153
141
117
122
131
-1.0
1.5
Miscellaneous foods and kindred products ...................
209
152
166
169
142
150
153
- .8
1.8
Tobacco manufactures ...................................
21
75
70
59
40
46
47
-1.8
- .2
Textile mill products ......................................
22
985
886
706
582
607
653
-1.1
1.6
Weaving, finishing, yarn and thread mills ....................
221,2,3,4,6,8
583
528
368
302
316
337
-1.5
1.4
Knitting mills .........................................
225
268
227
207
183
186
198
- .8
1.4
Floor covering mills ....................................
227
62
61
56
56
60
68
.5
3.0
Miscellaneous textile goods ..............................
229
72
70
55
42
46
51
-1.3
1.7
Apparel and other textile products ...........................
23
1,382
1,304
1,105 '
903
924
965
-1.3
1.3
Apparel .............................................
231-B
1,206
1,115
921
744
763
799
-1.3
1.1
Miscellaneous fabricated textile products ....................
239
176
189
184
158
161
166
-1.0
2.1
Paper and allied products .................................
26
689
706
675
633
655
715
- .2
2.4
Pulp, paper, and paperboard mills .... ....................
261,2,3,6
273
271
249
218
223
233
- .8
2.6
Converted paper products except containers .................
264
196
221
230
243
256
284
.8
2.7
Paperboard containers and boxes .........................
265
220
214
196
172
- 176
198
- .8
1.8
Printing and publishing ...................................
27
1,094
1,235
1,458
1,643
1,706
1,798
1.1
3.0
New3papers .........................................
271
382
420
458.
508
520
541
.9
1.7
Periodicals ...........................................
272
63
82
115
131
137
147
1.3
3.1
Books ..............................................
273
96
102
109
121
126
133
1.1
2.4
Miscellaneous publishing ................................
274
38
46
72
106
115
125
3.4
3.6
Commercial printing and business forms ....................
275,6
394
455
557
612'
635
671
.9
3.6
Blankbooks and bookbinding .............................
278
58
63
73
82
66
90
1.2
3.1
Printing trade services ............................ . .....
279
41
43
51
65
67
69
1.9
3.5
Chemicals and allied products ..............................
28
1,009
1,109
1,023.
912
950
1,017
- .5
2.6
Industrial chemicals ....................................
281,6
284
333
291.
250
258
272
- .9
1.9
Plastics materials and synthetics ..........................
282
229
212
167
125
132
143
-1.7
3.0
Drugs ...............................................
283
159
192
207
217
224
235
.6
4.0
Soap, cleaners, and toilet goods .................... . ......
284
122
139
147
147
154
167
.3
2.4
Paints and allied products ...............................
285
69
69
63
50
53
58
-1.2
1.6
Agricultural chemicals ..................................
287
56
70
55
39
42
47
-1.9
1.6
Miscellaneous chemical products ..........................
289
90
93
93
86
89
95
- .3
2.9
Petroleum and coal products ...... . ........................
29
195
210
169
120
127
134
-2.0
.6
Petroleum refining .....................................
291
151
165
131
96
100
106
-1.9
.6
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products ...................
30
631
781
789
825
861
913
.6
3.1
Tires and inner tubes ....................................
301
122
127
88
65
69
75
-1.8
1.4
Rubber products and plastic hose and footwear ...............
302,3,4,6
166
166
135
108
112
119
-1.4
2.0
Mlscellaneous plastics products ...........................
307
343
488
566
653
680
720
1.3
3.7
Leather and leather products ...............................
31
296
246
152
99
98
103
-3.1
-1.5'
Footwear except rubber and plastic ........................
313,4
-
161
96
61
58
58
-3.6
=2.0
Luggage, handbags, and leather products, n.e.c . ..............
311,5,6,7,9
-
85
56
38
40
45
-2.3
-1.0
Transportation and public utilities ...............................
40.42,44.49
4,541
5,135
5,244
5,410
5,719
5,903
.6
2.6
Transportation ............................................
40-42,44-47
2,678
3,021.
3,041
3,315
3,500
3,568
1.0
2.4
Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
 Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
Table 6. Continued-Employment by selected industry, 1972, 1979, 1986, and projected to 2000
Employment
Annual rate of
Standard
(thousands)
change, 1986-20001
t
Industry
Industrial
Pro acted 2000
I
(percen
)
Classlficetion
1972
1979
1986
Employment
Output
Low
Moderate
Nigh
Railroad transportation ...................................
40
582
556
331
167
190
203
-3.9
.7
Local and interurban passenger transit ...........:...........
41
276
263
282
300
308
315
.6
1.3
Trucking and warehousing ...........................:.....
42
1,124
1,339
1,382
1,627.
1,713
1,740
1.5
2.2
Water transportation ......................:............:.
44
212
216
174
146
159
167
- .6
1.7
Air transportation .........................:..............
45
348
438
570
690
721
725
1.7
3.7
Arrangement of passengeriransportation ......................
4722
-
-
158
217
.227
230
2.6
5.9
Miscellaneous transportation services ...........::...........
.471,2,3,4,8
-
-
126
153
164
172
1.9
3.0
Communications ..........................................
48
1,152
1,309
1,279
1,130
1,222
1,320
- .3
3.9
Communications except broadcasting ............:............
481,2,9
1,009
1,121
1,041
845
920
978
- .9
3.9
Radio and television broadcasting ...........................
483
143
188
238
284
302
342
1.7
3.9
Public utilities ............................................
49
711
605
924
965
998
1,015
.6
2.1
ElecMric utilities including combined services ................:...
491,493 pt.
420
493
582
602
613
621
.4
2.4
Gas utilities including combined services .......:.:........:...
492, 493 pt.
216
220
216
200
210
214
- .2
1.5
Water and sanitation including combined services ...............
494-7, 493 pt.
75
92
126
164
175
180
2.4
3.4
Wholesale trade .............................:..............
50,1
4,113
5,204
5,735
7,015
7,266
7,361
1.7
2.7
Motor vehicles and automotive equipment .......................
501
353
439
431
479
496
502
1.0
-
Machinery, equipment, and supplies ............:........... : ...
508
869
1,261
1,445
1,988
2,059
2,086
2.6
-
Groceries and related products ................:. . ........:...
514
536
648
757
876
907
919
1.3
-
Petroleum and products .....................:..............
517
225
225
200
187
194
197
- .2
-
Retail trade ................................:..;............
52.59
11,835
14,989
17,845
21,795
22,702
23,079
1.7
2.4
Department stores ...........................:....~....:.:;:.
531
1,706
1,878
1,978
2,261
2,364
2,404
1.3
-
Grocery stores ...................................... '.:...
541
1,578
2,002
2,523
2,984
3,121
3,174
1.5
-
New and used car dealers ......................:......'....:.
551,2
814
881
947
906
947
963
.0
-
Gasoline service stations ...................................
554
649
577
596
387
502
412
-1.2
-
Apparel and accessory stores ....................'........'....
56
784
949
1,070
1,292
1,351
1,374
1.7
-
Eating and drinking places ................:..:...'..'......::.
58
2,860
4,513
5,879
8,064
8,365
8,501
2.6
1.9
Drug and proprietary stores ..................................
591
452
489
563
647
677
688
1.3
-
Miscellaneous shopping goods stores ............. ?::~:.... ,.: r ..
,..,
594
375
569
746
1,038
1,085
1,103
2.7
-
finance, insurance, and real estate ................:.............
60-67
3,907
4,975
6,297
7,508
7,917
8,159
1.7
2.6
Banking ............................................: . ..
60
1,115
1,499
1,736
1,930
1,998
2,060
1.0
2.8
Credit agencies and investment offices ............:............
61,7
458
665
1,023
1,364
1,518
1,610
2.9
3.1
Security and commodity brokers and exchanges ...:.......:......
62
203
204
392
517
526
543
2.1
2.2
Insurance carriers ..........................:.:.:..........
63
1,054
1,200
1,364
1,454
1,532
1,566
.8
2.3
Insurance agents, brokers, and service ............: ........'.....
64
301
430
581
767
795
808
2.3
2.3
Real estate .........................................'.....
65,6
776
977
1,200
1,476
1,548
1,572
1.8
2.5
$ervicesz ..................................,.........;.....
70-86,89
12,117
16,768
22,531
30,545
32,545
33,708
2.7
3.2
Hotels and other lodging places ..............................
70
813
1,060
1,401
1,848
1,971
2,061
2.5
1.9
Personal services .....................................:'.:.
72
912
904
1,104
1,298
1,357
1,391
1.5
1.6
Laundry, cleaning, and shoe repair ..........................
721,5
-
367
393
400
434
445
.7
.8
Personal services, n.e.c ...................................
722,9
-
150
267
406
411
422
3.1
3.2
Beauty and barbershops ................................:..
723,4
-
319
367
410
423
430
1.0
.7
Funeral service and crematories ............................
726
64
69
77
82
89
94
1.0
1.1
Business services .........................................
73
1,790
2,906
4,781
7,593
8,121
8,533
3.9
4.2
Advertising ............................................
731
121
146
202
284
302
310
2.9
3.5
Services to dwellings and other buildings ......................
734
336
487
681
995
1,020
1,046
2.9
3.2
Personnel supply services ................................:.
736
221
- 527
1,017
1,730
1,851
1,908
4.4
3.6
Computer and data processing services .........................
737.
107
271
591
1,090
1,203
1,281
5.2
5.0
Research, management, and consulting services ............:'.:.
7391,2,7
-
-
788
1,186
1,301
1,394
3.6
4.3
Detective and protective services .............:..............
7393
-
-
445
658
687
709
3.1
3.9
Equipment rental and leasing ......................:... ...:..
7394
-
-
208
314
330
396
3.4
4.1
Photocopying, commercial art, photofinishing .......:........'...
7332,3,95
-
-
174
199
244
257
2.4
4.1
Credit reporting and business services, n.e.c . ............. i, ....
732,5; 7331,39;
-
-
677
1,137
1,184
1,233
4.1
4.0
7396,99
Auto repair, services, and garages ........................., ....
75
399
575
762
919
1,016
1,040
2.1
2.2
Automotive rentals, without drivers .............!.........'..,...
751
-
120
161
210
233
241
2.7
2.6
Automobile parking, repair, and services .................'.....
752,3,4
-
455
601
709
783
799
1.9
2.2
Miscellaneous repair shops ..................................
76
199
282
320
352
397
416
1.5
1.2
Electrical repair shops .........................::............
762
-
79
104
125
142
146
2.3
.8
Watch, clock, jewelry, and furniture repair ..................~:..
763,4
-
29
28
26
28
29
.0
- .2
Miscellaneous repair shops and related services ....`:.~..........
769
-
174
188
201
226
240
1.3
1.6
Motion pictures ......................................:....
78
205
228
227
207
248
266
.6
2.0
Amusement and recreation services .......................~..:;.
79
504
712
915
1,143
1,204
1,235
2.0
4.6
Theatrical producers and entertainers ........................
792
-
85
121
159
165
167
2.2
4.0
Bowling alleys and billiard establishments ..........'...........
793
-
110
95
72
82
85
-1.1
.6
Commercial sports ......................................
794
-
72
99
126
133
143
2.1
1.5
Amusement and recreation services, n.e.c . ........:...........
791,9
-
445
600
785
824
840
2.3
5.5
Neahh services ...........................................
80
3,412
4,993
6,551
9,369
9,774
10,039
2.9
3.4
Offices of health practitioners .............:.................
801,2,3,4
694
1,150
1,672
2,901
3,061
3,137
4.4
3.7
Nursing and personal care facilities ........................ ?...
805
591
951
1,250
1,992
2,097
2,124
3.8
3.6
Hospitals, Private ..............................:..........
806
1,980
2,608
3,038
3,438
3,513
3,611
1.0
2.8
Outpatient facilities and health services, n.e.c ...................
807,8,9
146
284
591
1,038
1,103
1,167
4.6
4.4
Legal services ...........................................
81
271
460
748
1,191
1,267
1,317
3.8
2.5
Educational services ...................:......... ..........
82
958
1,090
1,428
1,532
1,620
1,666
.9
1.8
Social, membership, and miscellaneous services ...... . ...........
83,4,6,9
-
3,571
4,296
5,326
5,569
5,745
1.9
3.0
Individual and miscellaneous social services ...................
832,9
-
393
528
755
790
798
2.9
2.9
Job training and related services ...................:........
833
-
-
256
333
337
389
2.0
2.6
Child day care services .........................:.........
3835
146
303
354
467
478
495
2.2
5.1
Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
 Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
Table 6. Continued-Employment by selected industry, 1972, 1979, 1986, and projected to 2000
Employment
Annual rate of
Standard
(thousands)
change, 1986-2000
Industry
Industrial
2000
~
~~
(percent)
ClassMiration
1972
1979
1986
)
~
Low
Moderate
High
Employment
Output
Residential care ........................................
836
-
202
319
500
519
532
3.5
4.9
Museums and noncommercial organizations, n.e.c . ..............
84,865,9,892
-
195
263
334
355
357
2.2
3.4
Business and professional associations .......................
861,2
-
118
135
144
159
165
1.2
2.2
Labor, civic, and social organizations .........................
863,4
-
464
485
507
531
537
.7
1.9
Engineering and architectural services ........................
891
339
515
678
887
936
957
2.3
2.9
Accounting, auditing, and services, n.e.c .......................
893,9
-
316
459
673
711
742
3.2
3.5
Government ...............................................
-
13,333
15,947
16,711
17,900
18,329
18,897
.7
1.5
.Federal Government .......................................
-
2,684
2,773
2,899
2,900
3',000
3,093
.2
1.3
? Federal enterprises ......................................
-
888
876
1,000
1,001
1,031
1,087
.2
2.7
U.S. Postal Service ....................................
-
698
661
789
?832 ,
845
866
.5
3.0
Federal electric utilities ..................................
-
29
52
39
32
33
37
-1.3
1.4
Federal Government enterprises, n.e.c . .....................
-
161
163
172
137
153
164
- .8
2.5
Federal general govemment .....:.........................
-
1,796
1,897
1,899
1,899
1,969
2,006
.3
.7
State and local government ..................................
-
10,649
13,174
13,812
15,000
15,329
15,804
.7
1.7
State and local enterprises ................................
-
547
733
831
973
1,004
1,023
t.4
1.5.
Local government passenger transit ........................
-
100
130
174
207 '
212
218
1.4
1.0
State and local electric utilities ............................
-
59
63
69
69
75
79
.6
t.4
State and local government enterprises, n.e.c .................
-
388
540
588
697
716
726
1.4
1.7
State and local general government ..........................
-
10,102
12,441
12,981
14,027
14,325
14,781
.7
1.7
State and local government hospitals .......................
-
926
1,10Q
1,047
1,047
1,070
1,103
.2
2.6
State and Iocai govemment education ......................
-
5,550
6,486
7,058
,7,674:
7,842
8,085
.8
1.6
State and local general govemment, n.e.c ....................
-
3,625
4,847
4,876 ,
6;306
5,413
5,593
.7
1.7
~ As projected in the noderate alternative. s Does not meet usual putilic86oii ci8eria df ass Cunent Employment Statistics survey.
z Excludes Standard Industrial Classifications 074,5,8 (agricultural services) and 99 (nonclassi? n.e.c. =not elsewhere dlassitied.
fiable establishments). Therefore the estimates are riot exactly comparable with data published in
Employment and Earnings. Nora: Dash indicates data not available.
In addition to offices of health practitioners, the outpa-
tient facilities and health services not elsewhere classified
industry is also expected to show enormous growth. The
absolute increases in numbers of jobs are not projected to be
as great as for doctors' offices because outpatient facilities
and miscellaneous health services is a smaller industry, but
the 4.6-percent annual rate of gain ranks it as the second
fastest growing industry in the economy in terms of employ-
ment. This industry includes such services as group health
associations (GHn's), health maintenance organizations
(HMO's), alcohol and drug treatment centers, family plan-
ning clinics, home health agencies, and visiting nurse asso-
ciafions. Clearly, these services will balloon as the preferred
method of treatment shifts from lengthy hospital care to
outpatient or home care.
Nursing and personal care facilities are also expected to
benefit from the shift away from hospital treatment. Nursing
homes will see very rapid growth through 2000 as the pop-
ulation aged 85 and over (the primary age group for nursing
home care) rises from 2.7 million in 1985 (or 1.1 percent of
the total population) to 4.9 million in 2000 (1.8 percent of
total population). Personal care facilities will grow faster
than nursing homes; the former include extended care facil-
ities, convalescent homes, and hospices. Jobs in the nursing
home and personal care sector as a whole are projected to
grow 3.8 percent a year, with employment rising to a level
of 2.1 million by 2000.
Hospitals are projected to show some job gains over the
1986-2000 period, despite the shift to outpatient care. The
increase in the number of persons over age 65, plus rapid
advances in new complex technologies, will cause an ex-
pansion in .hospitals. f1t 1.0 percent a year, however, pro-
jected job growth in private hospitals is just a fraction of the
rate expected for other health sectors through the year 2000
and of the historical rate of gain in the industry. Still, almost
500,000 new jobs are expected to be added in hospitals over
the projection period.
Personal, repair, and recreation services. Traditional
personal and repair service industries are projected to have
only very modest outpui growth through the 1990's, but the
newer types of services in the industry termed "personal
services not elsewhere cjassified" are projected to have
fairly good growth, increasing faster than ctvP. This catch-
all group includes health, beauty, and reducing clubs or
salons; dating services; ta'z return preparation services (non-
accountants); convenience services for two-earner families;
and a wide variety of other personal services. Payroll em-
ployment in this industry is projected to rise by 144,000, to
411,000 by 2000. 'this industry also includes many self-
employed workers; their numbers are projected at about
110,000 in 2000.
The small gains expected in the laundry and cleaning
industry reflect some .growth for industrial launderers, as
more hospitals and institutions contract out laundry opera-
tions. Consumer demand for commercial laundry and dry
cleaning services is expected to remain rasher flat.
In contrast, consumers are expected to have high levels of
demand for amusement and recreation services. Output of
the industry "amusements and recreation, not elsewhere
Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
 Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
classified," is projected to grow more than twice as fast as
SNP (5.5 percent a year from 1986 to 2000), and 224,000
wage and salary jobs are expected to be added. The output
growth rate ranks this sector among the top five of all the
industries studied. Included are golf courses, membership
sports and recreation clubs, tennis and racquetball facilities,
swimming pools, gyms, ski lifts, gambling establishments,
recreational classes or instruction, and numerous other
recreational services.
The rate of output growth projected for theatrical produc-
ers and entertainers also is very high-4.0 percent a yeaz-
reflecting the demand for more programming for expanding .
cable Tv networks.
Social, membership, and miscellaneous services. Several
of the social service industries are expected to have employ-
ment increases of more than 100,000 between 1986 and
2000. The number of jobs in the individual and miscella-
neous social services sector, for example, is projected to rise
from 528,000 in 1986 to 790,000 in 2000. This industry
includes individual and family counseling, disaster relief,
adult day care, senior citizens associations, fundraising or-
ganizations, and other related social services. Employment
growth in the industry averaged 4.3 percent a yeaz over the
1979-86 period. Thus, while projected growth is lazge in
absolute numbers, the 2.9-percent annual increase projected
represents a slowdown from historical trends.
Residential care is another-social service industry pro-
jected to show a large employment gain, 200,000 more jobs
by 2000. This industry provides residential care where med-
ical care is not a major element, as in group homes, halfway
houses, and rehabilitation centers. The rising demand foi
these services reflects the growing number of elderly who
may need to reside in a home for the aged but who do not
require intensive nursing caze, as well as an increase in the
use of drug and alcohol residential treatment centers.
Government. Total public employment is projected to rise
by 1.6 million between 1986 and 2000, with almost all of
the increase occurring in State and local governments. Fed-
eral employment is expected to remain virtually level, as it
has for most of the 1970's and 1980's.
The job gains in State and local governments reflect an
additional 784,000 workers in education and 537,000 in
other governmental functions except hospitals.' The rising
level of educational staff occurs as the population of elemen-
tary and secondary school-age children, offspring of the
baby-boom cohort, edges up. The following tabulation pre-
sents estimates of the school-age population for selected
yeazs 1970-85, and projected to 2000 (in millions):
Population
1970
S
...........................
to13 14
36.7
toi
15.9
1975
...........................
33.9
17.1
1980
...........................
31.1
16.1
1985
...........................
30.1
14.9
Projected 2000 ...................
34.4
15.4
Other increases are related to the assumption that some past
cutbacks in local government services will be reversed in
coming yeazs.
Alternatives
This article has focused on the results of the moderate
growth projection scenario, but two alternatives were also
prepared. The alternatives show the effects of changes in
some of the key assumptions of the macroeconomic model
discussed by Norman C. Saunders elsewhere in this issue.
In the low-growth scenario, GNP expands by only 1.6 per-
cent a yeaz, 1986-2000, compazed to 2.4 percent in the
moderate case, and the unemployment rate in 2000 reaches
7.7 percent, versus 6.0 percent in the moderate scenario. In
the high-growth scenario, GNP grows 'by 3.0 percent a yeaz,
and the unemployment rate falls to 4.5 percent.
Because of the sluggish growth and high unemployment
in the low scenario, total employment only rises to 126.4
million, compared to 133 million in the moderate case dis-
cussed in this article. Manufacturing employment falls pro-
portionately more in the low scenario because of slower
growth in equipment purchases and an actual decrease in
nonresidential construction. Durable goods employment is
10 percent less than in the moderate case; nondurables em-
ployment, 3 percent less; and nonmanufacturing employ-
ment, about 5 percent less.
In the high scenario, employment rises to 137.5 million
in the yeaz 2000, 4.5 million more than in the moderate
case. Again, more of the difference is concentrated in man-
ufacturing. Employment in that sector is 5 percent higher
than in the moderate scenario, while nonmanufacturing em-
ployment is 3 percent higher. ^
~ Annual Energy Outlook 1986 (U.S. Department of Energy, Energy
Information Administration, 1986).
Z Marcus E. Einstein and James C. Franklin, "Computer manufacturing
enters a new era of growth," Monthly Labor Review ,September 1986, pp.
9-16.
s Steven E. Haugen, "The employrtrent expansion in retail trade, 1973-
85," Monthly Labor Review., August 1986, pp. 9-16.
Includes voluntary part-time employed, part time for economic reasons
who usually work part time, and unemployed looking for part-time work.
For more information, see Thomas J. Nardone, "Part-time workers: whd
are they?" Monthly Labor Review, February 1986, pp. 13-19.
s Max L. Carey and Kim L. Ha2elbaket, "Employment growth in the
temporary help industry," Monthly Labor Review, April 1986, pp. 37-44.
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A look at occupational employment
trends to the year 2000
High-skill job groups are projected to continue
pacing occupational growth as groups
requiring the most education and training
are estimated to grow faster than average
GEORGE T. ILVESTRI an OHN UKASIEWICZ
The Nation's economy is projected to_ enerate-mor~_chan 2~1,
tm Ilion 'obs-between-1~986.`ana=2000 While a considerable
~----
number, this 19-percent increase is only about half the aver-
age annual rate of increase that occurred over the previous
14-year period, 1972 to 1986. (See table 1.) An accompany-
ing article by Valerie Personick, pp. 30-45, discusses the
projected changes in the industrial composition of~employ-
ment. Our article presents the 1986-2000 occupational
projections.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has developed three sets of
occupational projections, with each set tied to the high,
moderate, or low economic and industry employment pro-
jections alternatives presented elsewhere in this issue of the
Review. HoweJer, the basic changes in the occupational
structure of the economy from 1986 to 2000 among the three
alternatives are similar. Thus, for ease of presentation, we
focus on the moderate alternative, because the discussion
would be similar if either of the other scenarios was high-
lighted. The major differences among the alternatives are
discussed briefly at the end of the article.
Broad occupational group changes
The structure of occupational employment over the 1986-
2000 period is expected to shift because the change in total
George T. Silvestri and John M. Lukasiewicz are economists in the Divi-
sion of Occupational Outlook, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
STAT
employment will not be evenly distributed among the broad
occupational groups. For example, each of the three broad
occupational groups with the most highly trained workers in
terms of educational attainment (executive, administrative,
and managerial workers; professional workers; and techni-
cians and related support workers) is projected to continue
to grow more rapidly than the average for total employment.
Collectively, these three groups, which accounted for 25
percent of total employment in 1986, are expected to ac-
count for almost 40 percent of the total job growth between
1986 and 2000. In contrast, many factors, such as office and
factory automation, changes in consumer demand, and im-
port substitution are expected to lead to relatively slow
growth or a decline for occupational groups requiring less
education (administrative support workers, including cleri-
cal; farming, forestry, and fishing workers; and operators,
fabricators, and laborers). The 'service workers group (ex-
cept private household workers); which ~is expected to grow
at a faster rate than total employment and account for more
of the total growth in employment than any other broad
occupational group, is an important exception to the general
trend, because its educational attainment is not in the high
group. The expected shift away from low-skill jobs to high-
skill jobs is discussed in greater 'detail later in this article.
The following discussion on eacli'broad occupational group
is based on data found in table 1~. Historical trends in table
1 are based on data from the Current Population Survey,
~~
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Table 1. Employment by broad occupational group, 1986 and projected to 2000 moderate alternative, and percent change in
employment for selected periods
(Numbers in thousands)
1986
Proms
percent change
Occupation
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
1972-79
1979-86
1972-86
1986-2000
Total employment ............................................
111,623
100.0
133,030
100.0
20.3
10.9
33.4
19.2
Executive, administrative, and managerial workers .........................
10,583
9.5
13,616
10.2
34.9
28.7
73.7
28.7
Professional workers ...............................................
13,538
12.1
17,192
12.9
29.8
21.4
57.5
27.0
Technicians and related support workers ................................
3,726
3.3
5,151
3.9
39.9
24.7
74.5
38.2
Salesworkers .....................................................
12,606
11.3
16,334
12.3
24.3
24.4
54.6
29.6
Administrative support workers, including clerical ..........................
19,851
17.8
22,109
16.6
23.5
9.5
35.2
11.4
Private household workers ...........................................
981
.9
955
.7
-23.0
-11.5
-31.9
-2.7
Service workers, except private household workers .........................
16,555
14.8
21,962
16.5
25.7
16.0
45.9
32.7
Precision production, craft, and repair workers ............................
13,924
12.5
15,590
11.7
21.7
6.5
29.6
12.0
Operators, fabricators, and laborers .......... ..........................
16,300
14.6
16,724
12.6
8.7
-9.2
-1.3
2.6
Farming, forestry, and fishing workers ..................................
3,556
3.2
3,393
2.6
-5.1
-5.6
-10.4
-4.6
Nore: Estimates of 1986 employment, the base year for the 2000 projections, were
derived
1979-86, and 1972-86 rates of change were derived from the Current Population Survey data
primarily from data collected in the Occupational Employment Statistics surveys. The 1972-79,
because comparable Occupational Employment Statistics survey data were not available for 1972
and 1979.
whereas projected trends are based on data from the Na- where salesworkers are concentrated. The share of total
tional Industry-Occupation Matrix. In order to compare data employment accounted for by these workers is projected to
from both sources in table 1, the occupational categories increase from 11.3 percent of the total in 1986 to 12.3
from the Current Population Survey were selected. Table 8 percent by the year 2000. This is the only major occupa-
also is based on the Current Population Survey occupational tional group that grew as fast during the 1979-86 period as
categories and data. In all other tables in this article, the it did from 1972 to 1979, even though total employment had
National Industry-Occupation Matrix occupational classifi- grown only half as fast in the latter period.
cation and data were used. The number of administrative support workers, including
Employment of executive, administrative, and manage- clerical, which grew as fast as total employment in the
rial workers is expected to increase by more than 3 million 1972-86 period, is projected to increase significantly more
jobs from 1986 to 2000 due to the ever-increasing complex- slowly than the average for total employment from 1986 to
ity of business operations and the large employment gains in 2000, or by only 11 percent. This slowing of growth was
the wholesale and retail trade and services sectors. The rate evident in the 1979-86 period when this occupational group
of increase for this group is expected to be about 29 percent, grew slightly slower than the average for total employment;
or about. one and one-half the average for all occupations. in the previous 7 years it had grown slightly faster than total
The relative growth rate for this occupational group is pro- employment. Although this group is projected to add 2
jetted to be less than it was from 1972 to 1986 when exec- million jobs by the year 2000, its share of total employment
utive, administrative, and managerial workers grew twice as is expected to decline from 17.8 percent to 16.6 percent
fast as did total employment. because of its slow growth. Office automation and other
The- number of professional workers is expected to con- technological changes are expected to cause employment to
tinue to grow more rapidly than total employment, or by 27 decline in several detailed occupations within this group,
percent, from 1986 to 2000. Employment in many of the such as typists and word processors. Employment in several
occupations in this group is expected to surge, including the clerical occupations, however, is projected to grow faster
engineering, computer specialty, and health professional than the average for total employment due to rapid growth
occupations, which together are expected to account for in the industries that employ clerical workers such as hotel
more than one-half of the 3.7 million new professional jobs desk clerks and new account clerks in banking. Other occu-
added by the year .2000. . ? potions in this group are also expected to be favorably af-
Erriployinent=in-the tech~ieians and related-support -work=- -. fected by technological change, such as the computer and
~ers .category. is-projected' to grow faster than any other major- _ peripheral equipment operators group, which is expected to
occupational group-:(38 percent), or more than twice as fast grow rapidly due to the ever-increasing use of computers
as total employment. The technicians occupational group throughout the economy.
also was the fastest growing ,group from 1972 to 1986. Jobs Employment in the service workers group (except private
for health technologists and-Technicians are expected to ac- household workers) is expected [o rise faster than the aver-
count for 47 percent of the;1.4 million new technician jobs age for total employment, increasing by more than 5 million
that will be added over the ,1986-2000 period. jobs-more than any other broad occupational group from
Employment- in-the sale workers -group _ is- expected to -1986 to 2000. The projected growth rate of 33 percent for
~igcrease_by-30-pert-ent; or by 3.7 million jobs, due mainly 1986-2000 is faster than total employment and, conse-
to the large employment gains in wholesale and retail trade quently, the share of total employment accounted for by
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Table 2. Pro?ected 1986-2000 employment change (number and percent) for wage and salary workers, by,major industry
division and ~or self-employed and unpaid family workers, in major occupational groups, moderate tend
Occupation
Total,
all
classes
Total,
wage
and
Agri?
Minin
Construc?
Manu?
Transportation,
communications,
Wholesale
end
t
ll
Flnance,
Insurance,
S
l
Govern-
Self~mployed
and unpaid
of
salary
culture
g
lion
facturing
and public
re
e
treda
end real
erv
as
ment
family
workers
workers
utilities
estate
workers
All occupations
(thousands) .....
21,407
20,221
149
-58
891
-830
475
6,388
1,620
10,774
811
1,185
Managerial and
management?
related occupations .
3,033
2,677
14
-2
111
85
76
619
479
1,128
167
356
Engineers, architects,
and surveyors .....
495
470
4
-0
12
165
16
17
7
213
36
25
Natural, computer, and
mathematical
scientists ........
339
324
3
-1
1
23
12
25
41
199
21
15
Teachers, librarians,
and counselors ....
772
751
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
743
6
21
Health diagnosing and
treating occupations
1,081
1,072
7
0
0
0
0
29
1
1,013
22
9
Other professional
specialists .......
967
811
3
0
0
28
29
46
30
582
93
156
Technician
oceupations ......
1,403
1,374
4
- 2
4
70
28
86
51
1,070
63
28
Marketing and sales
occupations ......
3,728
3,168
4
1
13
17
76
2,408
286
357
5
560
Administrative support
occupations,
including clerical ...
2,258
2,327
5
- 19
0
- 238
- 27
287
551
1,815
- 45
- 69
Service occupations ..
5 381
5,205
2
- 1
2
- 31
37
2,251
74
2,596
276
176
Agriculture, forestry,
fishing, and related
occupations ......
- 163
194
83
0
2
- 8
1
21
26
55
15
- 357
Blue-collar worker
supervisors .......
144
138
3
- 2
52
- 58
15
41
4
65
17
5
Construction trades and
extractive workers ..
704
537
1
- 5
437
- 18
- 14
19
11
66
39
167
Mechanics, installers,
and repairers .....
687
677
3
- 4
64
- 7
- 2
217
52
317
37
11
Precision production
and plant systems
occupations ......
134
111
0
- 2
26
- 52
1
48
2
74
15
23
Machine setters,
set-up operators,
operators, and
tenders ..........
- 194
- 201
3
- 2
5
- 319
0
21
1
89
1
7
Assemblers and other
handwork
occupations ......
- 113
- 108
1
0
11
-203
2
32
0
47
2
- 4
Transponation and
material moving
machine and
vehicle operators ..
500
443
6
- 12
62
- 137
193
157
4
141
30
57
Helpers, laborers, and
material movers,
hand............
249
251
4
- 7
90
- 147
32
65
2
204
9
- 2
service workers is expected to jump from 14.8 percent in
1986 to 16.5 percent in 2000. Most of the large projected
employment gain in this occupational group is concentrated
in food service and health service occupations.
The number of private household workers is projected to
decline by 2.7 percent. This is more in line with the recent
moderate decline that occurred between 1979 and 1986 than
it is with the rapid declines that occurred from 1972 to 1979
and in earlier periods.
The number of precision production, craft, and repair
workers is projected to increase more slowly than the aver-
age for total employment, or by only 12 percent. From 1972
to 1986, employment in this group grew about as fast as the
average for total employment, although during the latter part
of the 1979-86 period, its employment growth was slower
than that for the total economy. Within this group, the rate
of growth for the construction trades is projected to be close
to the 19-percent growth rate of the overall economy. This
increase is expected to be offset, however, by occupations
concentrated in manufacturing that are expected to grow
more slowly than the average for total employment or to
decline over the 1986-2000 period. Employment decreases
are expected in occupations such as precision food, metal,
printing, textile, and apparel workers.
Employment in the operators, fabricators, and laborers
group is projected to be at virtually the same level in 2000
as it was in 1986. The stable employment level for this
occupational group is a reversal of the decline of more than
9 percent that this group suffered from 1979 to 1986, which
offset an approximately equal increase from 1972 to 1979.
Its share of total employment is expected to decrease signif-
icantly from 14.6 percent to d,2.6 percent. The drop in
manufacturing employment and increasing factory automa-
tion are largely responsible for the .lack of employment
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Table 2. Continued-Projected 1986-2000 employment change (number and percent) for wage and salary workers, by major
industry division and for self-employed and unpaid family workers, in major occupational groups, moderate trend
Total,
all
Total,
wage
TranspoAatlon,
Wholesale
Finance,
Self-employed
Occupation
classes
end
Agri-
Mlning
Construc?
Manu?
communlcatlons,
and retell
Insurance,
Services
Govern-
and unpaid
of
salary
culture
lion
lecturing
and public
trade
end real
ment
family
workers
workers
utilities
estate
workers
All occupations
(percent) .......
19.2
19.8
9.4
-7.4
18.2
-4.4
9.1
27.1
25.7
33.8
9.4
12.2
Managerial and mana-
gement-related
occupations ......
28.7
28.9
36.9
-2.7
23.7
5.5
18.1
28.8
39.4
47.9
16.7
27.1
Engineers,
larchitects, and,
surveyors ........
31.6
31.6
35.4
-0.4
26.2
24.0
18.9
67.6
54.6
54.5
18.2
31.6
Natural, computer, and
mathematical
scientists ........
45.9
46.3
33.3
-2.8
47.8
15.3
50.6
80.8
58.6
85.9
13.4
39.8
Teachers, librarians,
and.counselors ....
15.6
15.6
7.5
-
-
8.9
10.4
28.3
24.6
15.8
6.1
17.2
Health diagnosing and
treating occupations
41.7
46.3
32.0
-19.6
16.9
2.3
20.0
28.5
34.5
50.2
12.9
3.1
Other professional
specialists .......
26.2
27.4
27.9
-4.5
13.9
11.0
22.2
30.8
41.1
35.9
13.0
21.4
Technician
occupations .. ..
38.4
38.6
28.8
-6.6
10.4
11.7
17.7
57.1
43.7
52.2
15.2
32.6
Marketing and sales
occupations ...
29.6
29.3
21.9
11.2
18.8
3:0
29.8
29.3
34.0
46.0
8.5
31.3
Administrative support
occupations,
including clerical ...
11.4
12.0
6.6
-19.6
-0.1
-10.6
-2.1
9.1
16.6
29.1
-1.7
-16.8
Service occupations ..
30.7
31.5
11.4
-1'4.6
5.6
-9.2
21.0
39.4
22.5
31.4
16.8
17.2
Agriculture, forestry,
fishing, and related
occupations ......
-4.6
10.0
6.6
-11.5
14.3
-8.3
17.8
32.7
29.1
17.9
12.5
-22.1
Blue-collar worker
supervisors .......
7.9
8.2
31.6
-5.0
23.8
-7.3
8.0
25.9
35.2
44.8
14.3
4.1
Construction trades and
extractive workers ..
17.6
17.2
19.9
-2.9
22.0
-6.6
-17.5
28.1
31.5
36.8
12.2
18.8
Mechanics, installers,
and repairers ....
14.7
15.9
18.8
-7.1
21.9
-0.9
-.3
20.1
34.3
3A.6
12.0
2.4
Precision production
and plant systems
occupations.......
4.4
3.9
14.0
-12.5
20.9
-2.9
.5
13.3
23.4
29.a
9.6
10.5
Machine setters, set-up
,
operators, operators,
and tenders ..
-3.9
-4.1
16.9
-9.1
19.4
-7.3
1.1
23.5
29.6
26.9
5.2
8.0
Assemblers and other
handwork
occupations ..
-4.2
-4.1
16.6
2.1
26.7
-8.8
9.2
30.9
43.6
41.9
7.6
-4.9
Transportation and
material moving
machine and
vehicle operators
10.4
9.9
16.9
-9.7
18.5
-18.5
15.9
13.5
34.7
24.2
11.8
17.0
Helpers, laborers, and
material movers,
hand............
5.8
6.0
9.2
-14.3
11.9
-10.3
9.4
8.0
12.3
40.9
3.5
-2.5
Noce: Dash indicates division by zero.
growth for this group. Several transportation occupations,
however, are not expected [o be affected by these factors,
including the truck and bus drivers and aircraft pilots and
flight engineers occupations:
The number of farming, forestry, and fishing workers is
projected to decrease 5 percent between 1986 and 2000.
This represents a continuation of a very long-term decline,
but nevertheless..a slowing of the rate of decline that oc-
curred during the previous 14 years.
.,:.
Trends by industry ,.,
Occupational projections :were developed through the use
of an industry-occupation` employment matrix. The 1986
matrix used a's the base year of the projections presents the
occupational structure of 258 detailed industries. These data
were derived primarily from the Bureau's Occupational
Employment Statistics Survey, which obtains data on the
occupational staffing patterns of industries. I The 1986 occu-
pational structure of each industry was projected to 2000
through analysis of the factors that are expected to change
the structure, such as changes in technology, business prac-
tices and methods of operation, and product demand. The
projected structure was then applied to projections of total
employment for each industry described in Personick's arti-
cle. To derive the projections of total employment by occu-
pation, the detailed cells of the matrix were aggregated
across all industries.2
Table 2, derived from the National Industry-Occupation
Matrix, shows the absolute and percent changes in employ-
ment between 1986 and 2000 for major occupational groups
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by major industry division. More than 80 percent of the rise workers, including clerical; helpers, laborers, and material
in total employment is projected to occur among wage and movers, hand; and transportatiQt~rcati~;~ca~aterial moving
salary workers in wholesale and retail trade and in services. machine and vehicle operators. Many of the detailed occu-
Increases in the number of marketing and sales and service pations in these groups are expected to be affected by au-
workers are expected to account for almost half of the em- tomation and a decrease in demand for the products of
ployment gains in these two industry divisions. This is as industries in which they are concentrated because of
one would expect because of the high concentration of these changes in consumer tastes, shifts in governmental priori-
two groups. What is not so obvious, however, is the impact ties, and increases in foreign competition. Despite the drop
that these two divisions may have on other occupational. in employment, some occupational groups within manufac-
groups. For example, employment gains in wholesale and luring are expected to grow. The group with the largest job
retail trade and services are expected to account for nearly increase is engineers (165,000), followed by managers
ail of the job growth for the teachers, librarians, and coup- (85;000) and technicians (70,000).
selors occupation and workers in the health diagnosing and The agriculture, forestry, and fishing division has apro-
treating occupation;3 82 percent of the growth for the techni- jected increase in employment among wage and salary
cians occupation; 66 percent of the increase in the scientists workers, but if self-employed agriculture workers are in-
and computer specialists occupation; 65 percent of the rise eluded, the industry shows a decrease.
in the other professionals occupation; and 58 percent of the The number of self-employed workers and unpaid family
growth in managers. Except for teachers in services, each of workers combined is projected to increase by 12.2 percent,
these occupational groups has a projected growth rate that is from 9.8 million in 1986.to 10.9 million in the year 2000.
faster than that projected for total employment in the trade This estimate refers to both nonfarm and agricultural indus-
and services divisions. tries. All of this growth is expected to occur among self-
Although=mosi~of=Che=t~tal~einployment=shange=is.pror..=. employed workers, because j$bs=forunpaidifamilyworker~
jected^to.o~curin^trade+and~services~several^otherindnstry~ are~prT~jectedito~de`clin~by ata ~ ~fsa*million. For
~ivisions~have;n~table~hanges. Finance, insurance, and self-employed workers and unpaid family workers com-
real estate is projected to account for 8 percent of the growth bined, sales occupations are expected to account for
in total employment or 1.6 million jobs. Most of the growth 560,000 of the total increase of 1.2 million jobs. The occu-
in this industry division is expected to occur among workers pational group expected to add fhe next largest number of
in managerial and management-related occupations and self-employed and unpaid family=worker jobs is managers
workers in administrative support, including clerical work- and management-related workers.:(356,000), followed by
ers. The increase in the number of clerical workers is pro- service workers (176,000), and construction trades and ex-
jected to exceed that of managers within the finance, tractive workers (167,000).
insurance, and real estate division. However, the~.overall,
rate,.ofgrowthforc4erical~occupations~s:less than that_for Trends for occupational clusters
managers~d_ue~tojofficejautomation.m.banking~credit~r_e-port- The Bureau has developed projections for 480 detailed
ing.agencies+and+insurance; occupations, which are grouped into clusters that conform to .
Another industry division adding significant numbers of the Standard Occupational Classification system. (See
jobs is construction, which accounts for 4 percent of the table 3.) These clusters are discussed in terms of employ-
growth in total jobs (891,000). Nearly half of this industry's ment change, factors affecting change, and significant de-
growth is expected to occur among the construction trades tailed occupational components. The occupational groups in
and extractive occupations. this section below are based on the occupational classifica-
Gover-nment.(excluding-State-and=local=government-em=-- lion used in the National Industry-Occupation Matrix. They
,plo~!ees=in=education and=hosp-itals?)~s proje~ted`to account-~-differ somewhat from previously discussed groups based on
for 4per-cent=of total=employment=growth={8-1=1;000 jobs);,..~the Current Population Survey, which is the only source of
this=increase=is=expected to o~Z~'i''mairTly"'aTi~ ng State=and~.,comparable occupational employment data for the entire
local gov~e?rnment ser.,v.ice=workers such=as=police.and.fire~.,._1972-86 period.
??righter-s:Also=noteworthy=in-government=is=the=pro jected_
~loss,of 45,,000 jobs-among=admtnistrative support=worker-s~-~-.Managerial and management-related occupations .
inc udigg cler-is-a-lam:his=loss=is=largely=due.io.projected.de:_,.,, Several managerial occupations are expected to grow
=clines=in=typists=stenographers-payrotl-and=tiznekeeping~ rapidly from 1986 to 2000 due to the increasing complexity
.clerks=and=statistical=clerks---- of business operations and the large employment gains in
The manefactux~ingindnstry:divi~ionrs_p~jected to de- trade and service industries where, because of small firm
~rrease~by~mare~tha~80?!OOD~'8b'~The largest employment size, a higher than average proportion of.,employment is in
declines in manufacturing are projected to be for machine management occupations. For example, the number of em-
setters, set-up operators, operators, and tenders; assemblers ployment interviewers, private or public employment serv-
and other handwork occupations; administrative support ice, is projected to increase by 71 percent, largely as a result
Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
 Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
Table 3. Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1988 and projected to 2000
(Numbers in ihousandsj
Total employment
1986-2000 employment change
Occupation
1986
Projected, 2000
Number
Percent
Low
Moderate
High
Low
Moderate
High
Low
Moderate
High
Total, all occupations ...........................................
111,623
126,432
133,030
137,533
14,809
21,407
25,910
13
19
23
Managerial and management?related occupations ...........................
10,583
12,900
13,616
14,105
2,316
3,033
3,521
22
29
33
Managerial and administrative occupations ..............................
7,369
8,939
9,441
9,780
i,570
2,071
2,411
21
28
33
Education administrators ..........................................
288
316
325
336
28
37
48
10
13
17
Financial managers ..............................................
638
747
792
824
109
154
185
17
24
29
Food service and lodging managers ..................................
509
628
663
685
120
154
176
24
30
35
General managers and top executives .....................:..........
2,383
2,820
2,965
3,052
437
582
669
18
24
28
Marketing, advertising, and public relations managers ....................
323
402
427
444
80
105
122
25
32
38
Personnel, training, and labor relations managers .......................
151
183
194
201
32
43
50
21
28
33
Postmasters and mail superintendents ................................
28
29
30
31
2
2
4
7
8
14
Properly and real estate managers ...' ..............................
128
166
178
.184
38
50
56
30
39
44
Public administration chief executives, legislators, and general administrators ...
66
73
75
77
7
9
11
11
14
17
Purchasing managers ............................................
230
248
260
266
18
30
36
8
13
16
Managementeupport oceupations ................:....................
3,214
3,961
4,175
4,324
747
962
1,110
23
30
35
Accountants and auditors .........................................
945
1,251
1,322
1,371
306
376
426
32
40
45
Claims examiners, property and casualty insurance ......................
34
43
45
46
9
11
12
27
33
36
Inspectors and compliance officers, except censiroction ...................
125
137
142
146
12
17
21
9
13
17
Construction and building inspectors .................................
50
54
55
57
4
5
7
8
11
14
Cost estimators .................................................
157
180
186
197
23
31
39
15
20
25
Employment interviewers, private or public empoyment service .............
75
122
129
134
47
54
58
62
71
77
Loan officers and counselors .......................................
98
123
131
137
26
33
39
26
34
40
Management analysts ............................................
126
155
165
173
29
40
47
23
31
38
Personnel, training, and labor relations specialists .......................
230
264
278
288
34
49
58
15
21
25
Purchasing agents, except wholesale, retail, and qrm products .............
188
181
193
200
-7
5
12
-3
3
7
Tax examiners, collectors, and revenue agents .........................
57
65
67
69
8
10
12
13
17
20
Underwriters ....................................................
99
127
134
136
28
34
37
28
34
37
Wholesale and retail buyers, except farm products .......................
192
200
209
213
B
17
21
4
9
11
Engineers, archftects, and surveyors ....................................
1,567
1,917
2,062
2,138
350
495
571
22
32
36
Engineers .......................................................
1,371
1,683
1,815
1,883
312
444
512
23
32
37
Aeronautical and astronautical engineers .... _ .........................
53
53
58
60
0
6
8
1
11
15
Chemical engineers ..............................:...............
52
57
60
64
5
8
11
9
15
21
Civil engineers, including traffic engineers .............................
199
238
249
257
39
50
58
20
25
29
Electrical and electronics engineers ..................................
401
544
592
616
143
192
215
36
48
54
Industrial engineers, except safety engineers ...........................
117
140
152
158
22
35
41
19
30
35
Mechanical engineers ............................................
233
286
309
320
53
76
87
23
33
37
Architects, except landscepe and marine ..............................
84
102
108
112
18
25
29
22
30
34
Surveyors .......................:..............................
94
108
113
117
13
19
22
14
20
24
Natural, computer, and mathematical sciemists .............................
738
1,014
1,077
1,122
275
339
384
37
46
52
Computer systems analysis, electronic data processing .....................
331
544
582
607
212
251
276
64
76
83
Ufe scientists ....................................................
140
163
170
176
23
30
35
16
21
25
Biological scientists ..............................................
61
72
75
62
11
14
16
18
23
27
Mathematical scientists, actuaries and statisticians ........................
48
58
61
63
11
14
16
22
29
33
Operations and systems researchers ....................:.............
38
55
59
62
17
21
23
44
54
61
Physical scientists .................................................
180
194
205
214
13
24
34
7
13
19
Chemists ......................................................
86
92
96
95
5
10
15
6
11
17
Geologists, geophysicists, and oceanographers .........................
44
46.
50
49
2
6
8
6
13
19
Teachers, librarians, and counselors .....................................
4,949
5,558
5,720
5,906
610
772
957
12
t6
19
Teachers, preschool, kindergarten, and elementary ........................
1,702
2,011
2,066
2,131
308
363
428
18
21
25
Teachers, preschool .'...' .........................................
176
233
240
248
57
64
72
33
36
41
Teachers, kindergarten and elementary .............:.................
1,527
1,778
1,826
1,883
251
299
356
16
20'
23
Teachers, secondary school .........................................
1,128
1,246
1,280
1,320
118
152
192
10
13
17
College and university taculry ........................................
754
703
722
745
-51
-32
-9
-7
-4
-1
Other teachers and instructors .......................................
1,097
1,296.
1,340
1,386
199
243
289
18
22
26
Aduh and vocational education teachers ..............................
427
489
509
529
62
82
102
14
19
24
Instructors; adult (nonvocational) education ..........................
202
229
241
251
26
39
49
13
19
24
Teachers and instructors, vocational education and training ..............
225
260
268
278
35
43
53
16
19
24
l.ibradans, archivists, curators, and related workers ........................
144
159
165
170
15
20
25
10
14
18
Librarians, professional ...........................................
136
150
155
159
14
18
23
10
13
17
Counselors ......................................................
123
144
148
154
21
25
32
17
21
26
Health diagnosing and treating occupations ................................
2,592
3,528
3,674
3,785
935
1,081
1,192
36
42
46
Dentists ........................................................
151,
184
196
203
33
45
52
22
30
34
Dietitians and nutritionists ...........................................
40
52
54
55
12
14
15
29
34
38
Optometrists .....................................................
37
52
55
57
15
18
20
40
49
54
Phartnacists .....................................................
151
179
187
191
29
36
41
19
24
27
Physician assistants ................:..............................
26
39
41
42
13
15
16
49
57
62
Physicians and surgeons ........... .............................
491
645
679
700
154
188
209
31
38
43
Registered nurses ................::..............................
1,406
1,951
2,018
2,077
546
612
671
39
44
48
Therapists ......................................................
240
352
366
378
112
126
138
46
52
57
Occupationaltheiapists ...........................................
29
43
45
46
14
15
17
46
52
58
Physical therapists ..............................................
61
109
115
118
48
53
57
79
87
94
Recreational therapists ................:..........................
29
41
43
44
12
14
15
42
49
52
Respiratory therapists ............?:' ...............................
56
74
76
78
17
19
22
30
34
38
Speech pathologists and audiologists ................................
45
58
61
63
13
15
18
29
34
39
Veterinarians and veterinary inspectors .'.' :..............................
37
S2
54
57
15
17
19
39
46
52
Other professional specialists ........:::~ :..............................
3,692
4,421
4,660
4,842
729
967
1,150
20
26
31
Artists and commercial artists .........................................
176
218
235
246
43
59
70
24
34
40
Designers ..................:...........:........................
259
322
343
357
63
84
97
24
32
38
Musictans .......................................................
189
218
231
239
30
42
50
i6
23
27
Photographers and camera operators ..................................
109
137
146
153.
28
37
44
25
33
41
Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
 Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
Table 3. Continued-Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1986 and~,praj~cted, to 2000
[Numbers in thousands[
Total employment
1986-2000 employment change
Occupation
Projected, 2000
Number
Percent
1986
Low
Moderate
High
Low
Moderate
High
Low
Moderate
High
Photographers ..................................................
100
126
133
140
25
33
40
25
33
40
Producers, directors, actors, and entertainers ............................
73
87
97
103
15
24
30
20
34
41
Public relations specialists and publicity writers ...........................
87
115
122
127
28
35
39
32
40
45
Radio and rv announcers and newscasters ..............................
61
71
76
84
10
15
23:
16
24
38
Reporters and correspondents .......................................
75
84
88
93
9
13
19
12
18
25
Writers and editors, including technical writers ............................
214
268
287
301
54
73
88
25
34
41
Economists ......................................................
37
47
50
52
10
13
15
27
~ 34
40
Psychologists ....................................................
110
140
148
153
30
37
43
27
34
39
Clergy .........................................................
295
291
304
313
-4
9
18
-1
3 ..
6
Directors, religious activities and education ..............................
46
43
45
46
-3
-1
0
-7
-3
0
Recreation workers ............:...................................
164
190
196
202
26
33
38
16
20
23
Social service technicians ...........................................
88
117
122
125
29
34
37
33
38
42
Social workers ...................................................
365
468
485
500
103
120
134
28 .
33
37
Judges, magistrates, and other judicial workers ...........................
38
46
47
48
8
9
10
21
23
27'
Lawyers ........................................................
527
676
718
748
149
191
221
28
36.
42
Technician occupations ..............................................
3,650
4,791
5,053
5,226
1,141
1,403
1,576
31
38
43
Health technicians and technologists ...................................
1;598
2,171
2,261
2,326
573
663
728
36
41
46
Dental hygienists ................................................
87
134
141
145
47
54
58 .
54
63
67>
Emergency medical technicians .....................................
65
73
75
77
8
10
12
12
15
18
Licensed practical nurses ......................................'...
631
835
869
891
204
238
260
32
38
41
Medical and clinical lab technologists and technicians ....................
239
285
296
307
46
57
67
79
24
28
Medical records technicians ........................................
40
67
70
72
28
30
32
69
75
80
Opticians, dispensing and measuring .................................
50
69
72
74
19
23
24
39:
46
49
Radiologic technologists and technicians ..............................
115
183
190
196
67
75
80
58
65
70
Surgical technicians .............................................
37
48
49
51
11
12
14
30
33
37
Engineering and science technicians and technologists .....................
1,264
1,454
1,549
1,604
190
285
340
15
23
27
Engineering technicians ...........................................
689
874
933
964
185
245
276
27
35
40
Electrical and electronic technicians and technologists ..................
313
428
459
473
114
145.
160
37
46
51
Drafters .......................................................
348
331
354
366
-17
5
17
-5
2
5
Physical and life science technicians, technologists, and mathematical
technicians .......:..........................................
227
250
262
274
23
35
47
10
15
21
Technicians, except health and engineering and science ....................
788
1,166
1,243
1,297
377
454
509
48
58
65
Air traffic controllers ..............................................
26
27
28
29
1
2
3
4
8
10
Broadcesttechnicians ............................................
27
31
33
37
3
5
9
12
20
34
Computer programmers ...........................................
479
758
813
850
279
335 ~
' 371
58
70
78
Legal assistants and technicians, except clerical ........................
170
258
272
282
87
102.
112
51
60
66
Paralegal personnel ............................................
61
118
125
130
56
64
68
92
104
112
Title examiners and searchers ....................................
30
34
36
37
5
6
7
15
22
25
Technical assistants, library ........................................
51
56
57
59
5
7
8
10
13
16
Marketing and sales occupations .......................................
12,606
15,522
16,334
16,760
2,916
3,728
4,153
23
30
33
Cashiers ........................................................
2,165
2,616
2,740
2,798
450
575
633
21
27
29
Counter and rental clerks ...........................................
178
221
238
246
43
60
66
24
34
38
Insurance salesworkers ............................................
463
535
565
581
73
102
118
16
22
25
Real estate agents and brokers ...................................:...
376
507
542
562
131
166
186
35
44
49
Brokers, real estate ..............................................
63
86
91
94
23
28
31
36
45
49
Sales agenis,realestate ..........................:...............
313
422
451
468
108
136
155
35
44
49
Real estate appraisers .............................................
36
48
51
53
12
15
17
33
41
46
Salespersons, retail ...............................................
3,579
4,563
4,780
4,871
984
1,201
1,291
28
34
36
Securities and financial services salesworkers ............................
197
266
279
290
69
82
93
35
42
47
Stock clerks, sales Floor ............................................
1,087
1,255
1,312
1,333
168
225
246
,. 15
21
23
Travel agents ....................................................
105
146
154
159
41
49
53
39
46
51
Administrative support occupations, including clerical ........................
19,851
21,028
22,109
22,885
1,177
2,258
3,034
6
11
15
Adjusters, investigators, and collectors .................................
762
852
894
920
90
132
158
12
17
21
Adjusimenisclerks ..............................................
136
157
165
170
20
29
34
15
21
25
Bill and account collectors .........................................
126
157
167
174
32
42
49
25
33
39
Insurance claims and policy processing occupations .....................
355
367
385
393
13
30
38
4
9
11
Insurance adjusters, examiners, and investigators .....................
119
147
154
158
29
36
39
24
30
33
Insurance claims clerks .........................................
85
84
88
90
-1
3
5
-1
4
6
Insurance policy processing clerks .................................
151
136
142
145
-15
-9
-6
-10
-6
-4
Welfare eligibility workers and interviewers ............................
86
98
100
103
12
14
17
14
16
20
Communications equipment operators ..................................
365
381
404
422
16
39
57
4
11
16
Telephone operators .............................................
353
369
391
408
15
38
55
4
11
16
Centralottice operators .........................................
42
32
34
37
-10
-8
-5
-25
-18
-13
Directory assistance operators ....................................
32
24
27
28
-8
-6
-4
-24
-18
-12
Switchboard operators ..........................................
279
313
330
343
34
51
64
12
~
18
23
Computer operators and peripheral equipment operators ....................
309
430
457
475
121
148 ,.;:
166
39
48
54
Computer operators, except peripheral equipment .......................
263
364
387
403
101
124
140
39
47
53
Peripheral electronic data processing equipment operators ................
46
6fi
70
73
19
24
26
42 .
:, . 51
57
Duplicating, mail, and other office machine operators ......................
166
169
178
185
3
12
19
2 .
: 7
11
financial records processing occupations ...............................
5,093
5,350
5,637
5,832
257
544
739
5 ,
, , 11
15
Billing, cost, and rate clerks ........................................
307
298
313
322
-10
5
14
-3:.
' ~ 2
5
Billing, posting, and calculating machine operators .......................
105
108
114
117
4
9
12
4
9
12
Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks ..........................
2,116
2,085
2,208
2,291
-31
92
175
-1
4
8
Payroll and timekeeping clerks .....................................
204
171
180
186
-34
-25
-18
-16
-12
-9
General office clerks .............................................
2,361
2,688
2,824
2,916
327
462
554
14.
20
23
Information clerks .................................................
1,111
1,452
1,534
1,587
341
423_
ty
476
r:
31..
36
43
Hotel desk clerks ................................................
109
146
156
163
37
47
54
34
43
49
Interviewing clerks, except personnel and social welfare ...................
104
143
150
158
39
46
54
37
45
52
New accounts clerks, banking ......................................
94
110
117
122
16
23
28
17
24
30
Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
 Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
Table 3. Continued'~Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1986 and projected to 2000
[Numbers in thousands]
Total employment
1986-2000 employment change
Occupation
1986
Projected, 2000
Number
Percent
Low
Moderate
Nigh
Low
Moderate
High
Low
Moderate
High
Receptionists and information clerks .................................
682
913
964
997
232
282
315
34
41
46
Reservation and transportation ticket agents and travel clerks ...............
122
139
146
147
18
24
26
15
20
21
Mail and message distribution workers .................................
876
924
947
992
48
71
116
5
8
13
Mail clerks, except mail machine operators and postal service ..............
136
138
145
150
1
9
14
1
6
10
Messengers ......:............................................
101
116
123
128
16
22
28
16
22
28
Postal mail carriers ..............................................
269
288
291
306
18
22
37
7
8
14
Postal service clerks .............................................
370
383
388
408
12
18
37
3
5
10
? Material recording, scheduling, dispatching, and distribution occupations ........
2,173
2,151
2,264
2,330
-22
91
157
-1
4
7
Dispatchers ...........:........................................
185
206
215
221
21
30
36
11
16
20
Dispatchers, except police, fire, and ambulance .......................
124
138
146
151
14
22
26
11
18
21
Dispatchers, police, fire, and ambulance .............................
61
67
69
71
6
8
10
11
13
16
Meter readers, utilities .............................................
48
42
43
44
-6
-5
-4
-12
-10
-7
Order fillers, wholesale and retail sales ...............................
195
200
208
211
5
13
16
3
7
8
Procurement clerks ..............................................
41
33
35
37
-7
-5
-4
-18
-13
-9
Production, planning, and expediting clerks ..................:.........
213
210
228
239
-3
15
26
-1
7
12
Stock clerks, stockroom, warehouse, or yard ...........................
726
668
703
721
-57
-23
-4
-8
-3
-1
Traffic, shipping, and receiving clerks .................................
548
557
585
604
9
38
56
2
7
10
Weighers, measurers, checkers, and samplers, recordkeepers ..............
40
37
39
41
-3
0
1
-7
-1
3
Records processing occupations, except financial .........................
848
898
939
969
49
91
121
6
11
14
Brokerage clerks ...........:....................................
58
73
75
77
15
i6
19
25
28
32
File clerks .....................................................
242
260
274
283
18
32
41
8
13
17
Library assistants and bookmobile drivers .............................
102
111
114
117
9
12
16
9
12
15
Order clerks, materials, merchandise, and service ........................
271
263
277
285
-8
6
13'
-3
2
5
Personnel clerks, except payroll and timekeeping ........................
119
119
126
130
0
7
11
0
6
9
Statement clerks ................................................
43
54
57
59
11
14
16
26
32
37
Secretaries, stenographers, and typists .................................
4,414
4,413
4,648
4,813
-2
234
398
0
5
9
Secretaries ....................................................
3,234
3,470
3,658
3,789
236
424
554
7
13
17
Stenographers ................:.................................
178
123
128
133
-55
-50
-46
-31
-28
-26
Typists and word processors .......................................
1,002
820
862
892
--182
-140
-110
-18
-14
-11
Olher clerical and administrative support workers .......................:.
3,732
4,009
4,206
4,358
277
475
627
7
13
17
Bank tellers ....................................................
539
576
610
635
37
71
96
7
13
18
Court clerks ...................'.................................
40
49
51
52
9
10
12
23
26
30
Credit checkers ..................................................
41
42
45
47
1
4
6
3
10
15
Customer service representatives, utilities .............................
102
93
99
104
-9
-3
2
-9
-3
2
Data entry keyers, except compdsing .................................
400
315
334
347
-85
-66
-53
-21
-16
-13
Data entry keyers,composing'.....~ .................................
29
41
43
45
13
15
17
44
51
58
First?line supervisors and managers ..................................
956
1,106
1,161
1,200
150
205
244
16
21
25
Loan and credit clerks ............................................
159
191
207
217
32
47
57
20
30
36
Real estate clerks ...............................................
26
35
36
37
9
10
it
33
39
42
Statistical clerks ................................................
71
49
52
54
-21
-19
-17
-30
-26
-24
Teacher aides and educational'assistants . . .......................... .
648
752
773
797
104
125
150
16
19
23
Service occupations .................................................
17,536
21,933
22,917
23,532
4,397
5,381
5,996
25
31
34
Cleaning and building service occupations, except private household ...........
3,107
3,662
3,819
3,937
555
712
830
18
23
27
Housekeepers, institutional .........................................
123
157
165
170
34
42
47
28
34
38
Janitors and cleaners, including maids and housekeeping cleaners ..........
2,676
3,144
3,280
3,382
468
604
706
17
23
26
Pest controllers and assistants .....................................
'50
56
58
59
6
8
10
13
16
19
Food preparation and service occupations ...............................
7,104
9,337
9,705
9,908
2,233
2,601
2,804
31
37
39
Chefs, cooks, and other kitchen workers ..............................
2,563
3,299
3,427
3,501
736
864
938
29
34
37
Cooks, exceptshon order .......................................
1,023
1,324
1,378
1,413
301
355
390
29
35
38
Bakers, bread and pastry ......................................
114
155
162
165
41
48
51
36
42
45
Cooks, institution or cafeteria ' ...................................
389
442
457
469
53
66
80
14
17
20
Cooks,restaurant .............................................
520
727
759
778
207
240
259
40
46
50
Cooks, short order and fast food ..................................
591
748
775
788
157
184
197
27
31
33
Food preparation workers ............................:..........
949
1,227
1,273
1,300
277
324
351
29
34
37
Food service occupations .........................................
4,204
5,611
5,832
5,948
1,407
1,628
1.744
33
39
41
Bartenders ...................................................
396
530
553
566
134
157
170
34
40
43
Dining room and cafeteria attendants and barroom helpers ...............
433
607
631
644
174
197
211
40
46
49
Food counter, fountain, and related workers ..........................
1,500
1,879
1,949
1,985
378
449
485
25
30
32
Hosts and hostesses, restaurant, lounge, and coffee shops ..............
172
236
245
250
64
73
78
37
42
45
Waiters and waitresses .........................................
1,702
2,360
2,454
2,503
658
752
801
39
44
47
Health service occupations ..........................................
1,819
2,437
-2,549
2,608
618
730
788
34
40
43
Dental assistants ................................................
155
231
244
250
76
88
95
49
57
61
Medical assistants ...............................................
132
239
251
258
107
119
126
81
90
96
Nursing aides and psychiatric aides ..................................
1,312
1,673
1,750
1,786
361
437
474
28
33
36
Nursing aides, o{denies, and attendants .............................
1,224
1,584
1,658
1,691
359
433
467
29
35
38
Psychiatric aides ....... ,,, .....................................
88
90
92
95
2
4
7
2
5
8
Pharmacy assistants .:....:.:......................................
64
77
79
81
13
15
17
20
24
27
Physical and corrective therapy assistants and aides .....................
36
62
65
67
26
29
31
74
82
87
Personal service occupations ..:......................................
1,799
2,135
2,259
2,341
336
460
542
19
26
30
Amusement and recreation attendants ................................
184
228
239
246
43
55
62
24
30
34
Baggage posers and bellhops .....~ .................................
31
39
41
43
8
10
12
24
32
37
Barbers .......................L................................
80
76
81
85
-4
/
4
-5
1
5
Child care workers ..............i.................................
Cosmetologists and related workers
589
664
708
739
75
118
150
13
20
25
...................................
Hairdressers, hairstylists, and cosmetologists .........................
'
595
562
666
627
702
662
724
683
71
65
107
99
129
121
12
12
18
18
22
22
Flight attendants ...
......; ......................................
Social welfare service and home health aides ..........................
80
197
101
320
105
336
106
349
21
123
26
139
26
152
26
63
32
71
33
7
Home health aides .............................................
138
236
249
258
98
111
120
71
80
7
87
Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
 Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
Table 3. Continued-Civilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1986a~d_projected to 2000
iNumbers in thousands]
Total employment
1986-2000 employment change
lkcupetlon
Projected, 2000
Number
Percent
1986
tow
Moderete
Nigh
Low
Moderate
Nlgh
Low
Moderate
Nlgh
Social welfare service aides ......................................
59
84
88
91
25
29
32
43
49
54
Ushers, lobby attendants, and ticket takers .............................
42
41
46
49
-1
4
7
-2
9
16
Private household workers ..........................................
981
883
955
970
-98
-26
-11
-10
-3
-2
Housekeepers and butlers .........................................
34
32
35
35
-2
1
1
-6
2
4
Child care workers, private household ................................
400
334
362
367
-66
-36
-33
-16
-10
-8
Cleaners and servants, private household .............................
531
501
543
551
-30
12
20
-6
2
4
Protective service occupations ..................................:....
2,055
2,589
2,700
2,813
534
645
758
26
31
37
Correction officers and jailers .......................................
176
231
236
243
55
60
67
31
34
38
Firefighting occupations ...........................................
279
318
325
335
39
47
57
14
17
20
Firefighters ..................................................
T23
255
260
268
32
37
45
14
17
20
Firefighting and prevention supervisors ..............................
45
51
52
54
6
8
9
14 "
17
20
Police and detectives ............................................
489
563
576
594
74
87
105
15
18
21
Police and detective supervisors ..................................
84
98
100
103
14
17
20
17
20
23
Police detectives and investigators ....................:............
57
65
67
68
8
10
12
14
17
21
Police patrol officers ............................................
349
400
409
422
52
61
73
15
17
21
Crossing guards ................................................
52
55
56
58
3
4
6
5
8
11
Guards .......................................................
794
1,104
1,177
1,241
311
383
447
39
48
56
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and related oxupations ........................
3,556
3,229
3,393
3,497
-327
-163"
-59
-9
-5
-2
Animal caretakers, exceptlarm .......................................
80
100
104
108
20
24
28
25
30
35
Gardeners and groundskeepers,exceptfarm ............................
767
964
1,005
1,033
197
238
266
26
31
35
Supervisors, farming, forestry, and agricuflural-related occupations ............
65
59
62
64
=6
-3
-1
-9
-4
-1
Farm occupations .................................................
986
759
806
837
-227
-180
-149
-
-23
-18
-15
Farm workers ..................................................
940
705
750
779
-235
-190
-161
-25
-20
-17
Nursery workers ................................................
46
54
57
58
8
11
12
18
24
27
Farm operators and managers .......................................
1,336
1,001
1,051
1,078
-335
-285
-258
-25
-21
-19
Farmers .................:.....................................
1,182
810
850
871
-372
-332
-311
-31
-28
-26
Farm managers .................................................
154
191
201
207
37
47
53
24
31
34
Fishers, hunters, and trappers ......................................
77
94
97
101
16
20
23
21
26
30
Forestry and togging occupations ........:............................
139
128
138
143
-11
-2
4
-8
-1
3
Forest and conservation workers ....................................
36
40
42
43
4
5
7
10
15
18
Timber cutting and logging occupations ...............................
103
88
96
100
-15
-7
-3
-15
-7
-3
Falters and buckers ............................................
36
29
32
33
-7
-4 ,,
-3
-18
-11
-8
Logging tractor operators ........................................
28
26
28
29
-2
-1
0
-8
-2
1
Blue-ccllar worker supervisors .........................................
1,823
1,854
1,967
2,051
3/
144
228
2
8
13
Construction trades and extractive workers ................................
4,006
4,500
4,710
4,940
495
704
934
12
18
23
Bricklayers and stone masons ........................................
161
180
187
196
19
26
36
t2
16
22
Carpenters ......................................................
1,010
1,134
1,192
1,252
124
182 ""
242
12
18
24
Carpet installers ..................................................
66
78
83
87
12
17
21
19
26
31
Concrete and terrauo finishers .......................................
118
137
142
149
19
24
31
16
20
26
Drywall installers and finishers .......................................
154
183
191
200
29
37
46
19
24
30
Electricians ......................................................
556
617
644
676
61
89
120
11
16
22
Glaziers ........................................................
47
54
56
58
7
9
11
15
19
24
Hardtile setters ..................................................
32
37
39
41
6
8
10
19
25
31
Highway maintenance workers .......................................
167
184
188
194
18
22
27
11
13
i6
Insulation workers .................................................
62
73
75
79
11
13
17
18
22
27
Painters and paperhangers, construction and maintenance ..................
412
475
502
526
63
90
114
15 .
22
28
Paving, surfacing, and tamping equipment operators .......................
59
67
69
72
9
11
13
15
18
23
Pipelayers and pipelaying fitters ......................................
52
58
59
62
6
8
10
11
15
20
Plasterers .......................................................
28
30
31
33
2
3
5
8
12
17
Plumbers, pipefitters; and steamfitters ..................................
402
452
471
493
49
69
91
12
17
23
Roofers ........................................................
142
174
181
190
32
39
48
23
28
34
Structural and reinforcing metal workers ................................
86
101
104
109
14
17
23
17
20
26
Oil and gas extraction oceupations ....................................
108
103
110
122
-5
2
14
-5
2
13
Roustabouts ....................................................
56
48
52
57
-8
-4
1
-14
-7
2
Mechanics, installers, and repairers .....................................
4,678
5,060
5,365
5,547
382
687
869
8
15
19
Communications equipment mechanics, installers, and repairers ..............
109
79
87
92
-30
-23
-17
-27
-21
-16
Central office and rax installers and repairers ..........................
74
52
57
60
-22
-17
-13
-29
-23
-18
Electrical and electronic equipment mechanics, installers, and repairers .........
533
576
614
637
43
81
105
8
15
20
Data processing equipment repairers .................................
69
117
125
129
48
56 -
60
69
80
86
Electrical powerline installers and repairers ............................
108
114
116
121
6
/ 1
14
6
10
13
Electronic home entenainment equipment repairers ......................
49
54
59
60
5
10 :
12
11
20
24
Electronics repairers, commercial and industrial equipment ................
81
97
104
107
17
23 , r
26
21
28
33
Station installers and repairers, telephone .............................
58
36
40
42
-22
-18 `..
-16
-37
-32
-28
Television and cable N line installers and repairers .....................
119
102
108
115
-18
11
-4
-15
-9
-4
Machinery and related mechanics, installers, and repairers ..................
1,545
1,712
1,810
1,881
167
265.
_335
11
17
22
Industrial machinery mechanics .....................................
421
420
447
468
-1
26
48
_ 0
6
11
Maintenance repairers, general utility .................................
1,039
1,205
1,270
1,314
167
232
275
16
22
26
Millwrights .....................................................
86
87
93
99
0
7
13
0
8
15
Vehicle and mobile equipment mechanics and repairers ....................
1,559
1,654
1,759
1,806
94
200 .~,f
. 247
6
13
16
Aircraft mechanics and engine specialists .............................
107
122
129
130
15
22
23
14
20
21
Aircraft mechanics .............................................
91
104
109
110
13
19:? c
20
14
20
22
Automotive body and related repairers ................................
214
221
239
246
7
25; .n
~ 31
3
12
15
Automotive mechanics ............................................
748
758
808
830
10
60~r~,
.." 82
1
8
11
Bus and truck mechanics and diesel engine specalists ...................
263
308
325
334
45
63 ,u;
;~~;. ? 72
17
24
27
Farm equipment mechanics ........................................
52
51
54
55
0
2 ;
.., 3
0
4
6
Mobile heavy equipment mechanics, except engines .....................
102.
121
127
131
19
25
29
19
24
29
Small engine specialists ..........................................
36
45
48
49
6
9
11 "
16.
24
28
Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
 Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
Table 3. Ctintini~~T3ivilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1986 and projected to 2000
(Numbers in thousands)
Total employment
1986-2000 employment change
Occupation
1986
Protected, 2000
Number
Percent
Low
Moderate
Hlgh
Low
Moderate
High
Low
Moderate
High
Other mechanics, installers; aril repairers ...............................
931
1,039
1,095
1,132
108
164
200
12
18
21
Coin and vending machine servicers and repairers .......................
27
29
30
31
2
3
4
6
12
15
Heating, air conditioning and refrigeration mechanics and installers ...........
222
260
272
283
38
50
61
17
22
27
Home appliance and power tool repairers .............................
76
79
84
86
3
8
10
4
10
13
Office machine and cash register servicers ............................
56
75
78
80
19
22
24
34
40
43
Precision instrument repairers ... ! ..................................
49
48
52
54
-1
3
5
-2
5
10
Tire repairers and changers .: .. ................ . .................. . ...
83
98
103
105
15
20
22
18
24
26
Precision production and plant systems occupations .........................
3,066
2,993
3,200
3,329
-73
134
263
-2
4
9
Precision food workers ...:..........................................
317
312
322
330
-6
5
13
-2
2
4
Bakers, manufacturing ............:................:..............
Butchers and meatcutters .............
.
38
248
34
251
35
259
37
264
-4
2
-3
11
-1
-10
-7
-3
.
..........................
16
1
4
7
Precision metalworkers ............................................
939
889
962
994
-51
22
55
-5
2
6
Boilermakers ....:.............................................:
30
30
32
33
0
2
3
-1
5
10
Jewelers and silversmiths .........................................
36
42
44
45
6
8
9
'16
22
25
Machinists ....................................................:
Sheet metalworkers .....:.......................................
378
222
345
226
373
240
365
249
-34
4
-5
19
6
28
-9
2
-1
8
2
13
Tooland.die makers .............................................
160
152
168
174
-8
8
14
-5
5
9
Precision printing workers .....................................:...
112
117
122
128
5
10
16
5
9
14
Compositors, typesetters, and anangers, precision .....................
30
24
25
26
-6
-5
-4
-21
-17
-13
Lithography and photoengraving workers, precision ....................
48
57
59
62
9
11
14
16
22
29
Precision textile, apparel, and furnishing workers ........... . ..............
285
287
306
320
1
21
34
0
7
12
Custom tailors arid sewers .........................................
108
116
123
127
7
15
19
7
13
17
Shoe and leather workers and repairers, precision .......................
35
28
29
30
-7
-6
-5
-20
-17
-14
Upholsterers ..........::................::.....................
Precision woodworkers ......:.......................................
74
204
75
214
82
234
87
250
1
10
8
30
13
46
1
5
10
15
17
23
Inspectors, testers,and,graders ......................................
694
640
692
722
-55
-3,
28
-8
0
4
Other precision workers ............................................
223
250
267
278
28
44
55
12
20
25
Dental lab technicians, precision ...............................:....
46
60
64
67
14
18
21
31
39
46
Chemical plant and system operators ..................................
33
23
23
25
-11
-10
-8
-32
-30
-25
Electric power generating plant operators, distributers, and dispatchers .........
45
48
50
51
3
5
6
7
11
14
Power generating and reactor plant operators ..........................
25
27
28
29
3
3
4
10
14
16
Gas and petroleum plant and system occupations ...........:.............
31
19
20
21
-11
-11
-9
-37
-34
-30
Stationary engineers ............ ~ .. : ...............................
41
41
42
44
0
2
4
0
5
9
Water and liquid waste treatment plant and systems operators ...............
74
83
85
88
9
11
14
13
15
19
Machirie setters, set-up operators, operators, and tenders .....................
Numerical control machine tool operators and tenders
metal and plastic
4,964
56
4,470
55
4,770
60
5,012
61
-494
2
-194
47
-10
-4
1
,
..:.....
Combination machine tool setters, set=up operators, operators, and tenders ......
92
88
97
100
-
-3
4
5
5
8
-3
-4
7
6
9
9
Machine tool cutting and forming setup operators and tenders, metal and plastic
822
668
737
766
-155
-85
-56
19
-10
-7
Drilling machine tool setters and set-up operators, metal and plastic ..........
63
51
57
58
-11
-6
-4
-18
-10
-7
Grinding machine setters and set-up operators, metal and plastic ............
88
72
80
82
-16
-8
-6
-18
-9
-6
Lathe machine tool setters and set-up operators, metal and plastic ...........
96
78
86
89
-18
-9
-7
-18
-10
-7
Machine forming operators and tenders, metal and plastic .........:.......
170
141
156
163
-29
-15
-7
-17
-9
-4
Machine tool cutters operators and tenders, metal and plastic ........:.....
.167
134
148
153
-33
-19
-14
-20
-11
-8
Punching machine setters and set-up operators, metal and plastic ...........
61
50
55
58
-11
-6
-4
-18
-9
-6
Metal fabrication machine setters, operators, and related workers .............
180
152
167
172
-28
-13
-8
-16
-7
-4
Metal fabricators, structural metal products ............................
'
37
35
38
39
-2
1
3
-4
4
7
Welding machine
setters, operators, and tenders ........................
126
101
112
115
-25
-15
-11
-20
-12
.
-9
Metal and plastic process machine setters, operators, and related workers .. ...
300
296
320
338
-3
21
39
-1
7
13
Electric plating machine operators and tenders, setters and set-up operators,
metal and plastic ............. ................................
Metal molding machine operators and tenders, setters and set-up operators ....
47
37
41
29
45
33
46
34
-6
-8
-1
-4
0
-3
-12
-22
-3
-12
0
Plastic molding machine operators and tenders, setters and set-up operators ...
147
174
183
193
27
36
46
19
25
-7
31
Printing, binding, and related workers ..................................
412
458
478
505
46
66
93
1 t
16
23
Bindery machine operators, setters, and set-up operators .................
72
86
90
95
14
17
22
19
24
31
Printing press operators ...........................................
Offset lithographic press setters and set-up operators ...................
222
73
252
92
262
96
278
101
29
19
40
23
56
28
13
27
18
25
Printing press machine setters, operators, and tenders ..................
115
126
131
140
11
17
25
10
32
15
39
22
Photoengraving and lithographic machine operators and photographers .......
29
37
38
40
7
9
11
24
29
36
Typesetting and composing machine operators and tenders ............'....
37
35
36
37
-2
-i
1
-6
-3
2
Textile and related setters, operators, and related workers ...................
Pressing machine operators and tenders, textile, garment
and related workers
1,165
89
959
83
995
88
1,048
9p
-206
-170
-117
-18
-15
-10
,
Sewing machine operators,garment .................................
Sewing machine operators,nongarment ........ .
..........
633
135
526
119
541
125
567
131
-g
-106
-
-1
-92
2
-66
-7
-17
_2
-14
2
-10
..........
.
Textile draw-out and,,winding machine operators and tenders ...............
219
156
164
175
i6
-62
-10
-55
-3
-43
-12
-28
-7
-25
-2
-20
Texitle machine setters and set-up operators ...........................
54
45
47
51
-9
-7
-3
-i6
-13
-6
Woodworking machine setters, operators, and other related workers '..........
147
140
159
173
-7
12
26
-5
8
18
Head sawyers and sewing machine operators and.tenders, severs and
set-up operators ..............~..................................
Woodworking machine operatora'and tenders, setters and set-up operators
74
74
68
72
78
81
85
88
-5
5
12
-7
7
16
.....
-2
7
14
-2
9
19
Other machine setters, set-up operators, operators, and tenders .. : ...........
C
ti
1,700
1,575
1,668
1,754
-125
-32
54
-7
-2
3
emen
ng and gluing machine operators and tenders ......:.............
Chemical equipment controllers, operators and lenders ...................
42
73
39
50
41
52
45
55
-3
-24
-1
-22
3
-18
-8
-33
-2
-30
6
-25
Cooking and roasting machine operators and tenders, food and tobacco ......
Crushing and mixing machine operators and tenders
26
22
22
23
-4
-4
-3
-17
-14
-11
.....................
Cutting and slicing machine setters, operators, and tenders ................
132
82
117
79
X123
82
129
88
-16
-3
-9
0
-3
6
-12
-4
-7
-2
Electronic semiconductor processors .................................
29
13
14
14
-15
-15
-15
-53
0
-51
7
-52
Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
 Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
Table 3. Continued-Givilian employment in occupations with 25,000 workers or more, actual 1986 and projected to 2000
(Numbers in thousands]
Totelemptoyment
1986-2000 employment change
Occupation
1986
Projected, 2000
Numlter
Percent
Low
Moderate
Hlgh
Low
Moderate
Hlgh
Low
Moderate
Hlgh
Extruding and forming machine setters, operators, and tenders ...............
100
91
96
102
-9
-3
2
-9
-3
2
Furnace, kiln, or kettle operators and tenders .......... . .................
58
49
53
56
-9
-5
-2
-16
-8
-3
Laundry and drycleaning machine operators and tehders, except pressers .......
140
160
170
175
21
31
36
15
22
26
Packaging and filling machine operators and tenders .......................
299
280
293
308
-19
-5
10
-6
-2
3
Painting and paint spraying machine operators ...........................
100
94
102
107
-7
1
6
-7
1
6
Painting machine operators, tenders, setters, and setup operators ..........
66
62
68
72
-3
2
6
-5
3
9
Painters, transportation equipment ...................................
35
31
34
35
-4
-1
0
-10
-2
1
Paper goods machine setters and setup operators ........................
60
58
60
66
-2
0
6
-4
0
10
Photographic processing machine operators and tenders ...................
39
45
48
51
6
9
12
16
24
32
Separating and still machine operators and tenders ........................
26
22
23
24
-4
-3
-2
-16
-12
-7
Shoe sewing machine operators and tenders ............................
27
18
18
18
-8
-9
-B
-31
-32
-31
Assembler and other handwork occupations ............................. . .
2,701
2,389
2,589
2,695
-312
-113
-6
-12
-4
0
Precision assemblers ...................................:..........
351
315
348
358
-36
-3
7
-10
-1
2
Electrical and electronic equipment assemblers, precision .................
170
155
171
177
-15
i
6
-9
1
4
Electromechanical equipment assemblers, precision .....................
59
57
62
64
-2
4
5
-3
7
9
Machine builders and other precision machine assemblers .................
50
44
48
49
-6
-2
-1
-12
-4
-1
Other hand workers, including assemblers and fabricators ...................
2,350
2,074
2,240
2,338
-277
-110
-13
-12
-5
-1
Cannery workers ..............................'..................
78
69
72
76
-8
-5
-1
-11
-7
-2
Coil winders, tapers, and finishers ....................................
34
25
28
29
-9
-6
-5
-26
-19
-16
Cutters and trimmers, hand ........................................
50
48
50
53
-2
0
3
-4
1
6
Electrical and electronic assemblers .............................:...
249
105
116
119
-145
-134
-131
-58
-54
-52
Grinders and polishers, hand .......................................
73
62
69
72
-11
-4
-2
-15
-6
-2
Machine assemblers .............................................
50
44
49
50
-6
-1
0
-12
-2
1
Meat, poultry, and fish cutters and trimmers, hand .......................
101
105
106
108
3
4
7
3
4
7
Painting, coating, and decorating workers, hand .........................
42
42
46
48
0
4
6
-1
9
14
Solderers and brazers ............................................
25
24
27
28
-1
2
3
-3
7
10
Welders and cutters .............................................
287
284
307
320
-4
19
32
-1
7
11
Transportation and material moving machine and vehicle operators .............
4,789
5,029
5,289
5,456
240
500
667
5
10
14
Aircraft pilots and flight engineers .....................................
76
94.
98
99
17
22
23
23
29
30
Motor vehicle operators ............................................
3,089
3,520
3,693
3,798
431
604
709
i4
20
23
Bus drivers ....................................................
478
541
555
572
63
77
94
13
16
20
Bus drivers, except school ....................................:..
143
172
177
182
29
34
39
20
24
27
Bus drivers, school ............................................
334
369
378
390
34
44
56
10
13
17
Taxi drivers and chauffers .........................................
88
88
94
98
0
6
10
0
7
11
Truck drivers ...................................................
2,463
2,821
2,968
3,050
358
505
'587
15
21
24
Driver?salesworkers ............................................
252
222
232
239
-30
-20
-13
-12
-8
-5
Truck drivers. light and heavy ....... .............................
2,211
2,599
2,736
2,811
388
525
600
18
24
27
Rail transportation workers ..........................................
117
66
74
79
-51
-43
-39
-44
-37
-33
Railroad brake, signal, and switch operator; ...........................
42
22
25
27
-20
-17
-15
-47
-40
-36
Railroad conductors and yardmasters ................................
29
15
17
18
-14
-12
-11
-48
-41
-37
Water transportation and related workers ...............................
50
43
46
49
-8
-4
-1
-t5
-8
-3
Other transportation and related workers ................................
416
401
421
430
-15
5
15
-4
1
4
Parking lot attendants ............................................
30
34
37
38
4
7
8
12
21
25
Service station attendants .........................................
299
272
285
291
-28
-14
-8
-9
-5
-3
Material moving equipment operators ..................................
998
857
905
947
-140
-93
-51
-14
-9
-5
Crane and tower operators ........................................
58
56
60
64
-2
3
7
-4
5
11
Excavation and loading machine operators .....................:......
70
75
79
83
6
9
13
8
13
19
Grader, dozer, and scraper operators ................................
92
100
104
109
8
11
17
8
12
18
Industrial truck and tractor operators .................................
426
265
283
296
-161
-143
-131.
-38
-34
-31
Operating engineers .............................................
150
167
172
180
17
23
30
11
15
20
Helpers, laborers, and material movers, hand ..............................
4,273
4,295
4,522
4,705
22
249
432
1
6
10
Freight, stock, and material movers, hand ...............................
831
768
811
638
-63
-19
8
-8
-2
1
Hand packers and packagers ........................................
566
606
639
662
40
73
96
7
13
17
Helpers, construction trades .........................................
519
570
587
616
51
68
97
10
13
19
Machine feeders and ottbearers ......................................
278
24?
262
280
-36
-16
2
-13
-6
1
Refuse collectors .................................................
113
130
135
138
17
22
25
15
19
22
Vehicle washers and equipment cleaners ...............................
189
190
203
208
1
14
19
0
7
10
of the rapid growth of the personnel supply services indus-
try, which has many small establishments. Other managerial
occupations projected to grow .apidly because of large em-
ployment gains in industries where the occupations are
concentrated include insurance underwriters (34 percent),
property and real estate managers (39 percent), and loan
officers and counselors (34 percent). However, not all occu-
pations in the managerial group will fare as well. Employ-
ment for purchasing tanagers; purchasing agents, except
wholesale, retail, and farm products; and wholesale and
retail buyers is expected to grow more slowly than total
employment due to the computerization of purchasing tasks
and more efficient purchasing methods. Other occupations
with low projected growth rates `ire in Federal, State, and
local governments, which are not expected to grow as fast
as the overall economy; these occupations' include post-
masters and mail superintendents, public administrators,
and construction and building inspectors.
:_, .
Engineers, architects, and surveyors. The electrical engi-
neers occup.ztion is projected to Have the largest employ-
ment gain (192,000 jobs) and ~Tf~e most rapid increase
(48 percent) in this cluster. Most of the increase is expected
to occur in industries such as communications equipment,
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 Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
computers, and other electronics equipment manufacturing.
The need to remain competitive will require an increasing
number of these engineers to update product designs, ex-
plore more .cost-efficient ways of producing goods, and
develop new products.
The mechanical engineers occupation is projected to have
the next largest employment gain (76,000 jobs) and the
second most rapid increase (33 percent) among occupations
in the engineers, architects, and surveyors group. Most of
the employment increase is expected in manufacturing be-
cause of increasing product design requirements. Other
sources of demand for mechanical engineers include
services, such as engineering and architectural services,
miscellaneous business services, and temporary help supply
services. Construction and government industries are ex-
pected to employ an increasing number of mechanical engi-
neers as well. The number of civil engineers, including
traffic engineers is projected to increase by 50,000 jobs
(25 percent), based on the need to improve the highway
system and other large-scale construction projects in the
economic infrastructure. Also, the number of industrial en-
gineers, except safety engineers, is projected to increase by
35,000 workers (30 percent) as industry seeks to improve its
efficiency through the introduction of new production tech-
niques, such as integrated manufacturing systems. The
architects, except landscape and marine, occupation is pro-
jected to gain 25,000 jobs (30 percent) because of increased
demand for office. buildings, apartment buildings, and resi-
dential housing. Computer-assisted design equipment will
allow architects to provide more flexible services by produc-
ing variations in design more easily.
tunities are expected to open up in laser research, high-
energy physics, and other areas of advanced science.
Teachers, librarians, and counselors . This group of occu-
pations is projected to grow about as fast as the average for
total employment and add about 772,000 jobs. However,
not all detailed occupations within this cluster are expected
to have the same growth rate due to differing trends in the
cohorts that comprise school-age youth in different levels of
education. Employment for preschool teachers, for exam-
ple, is projected to increase faster than total employment, or
by 36 percent, because of the increased demand by working
parents for child daycare services. The number of kinder-
garten and elementary school teachers is expected to grow
about as fast as the average for total employment; this
growth is because of rising enrollments that reflect the in-
crease in births beginning in the late 1970's from the "echo"
effect of the post-World War II baby boom. Employment for
secondary teachers, however, is expected to grow more
slowly than the average for total employment due to the
small projected increase in enrollments from 1986 to 2000.
The=number of college-and university faculty is projected to
decrease bq 4 -p~rcenC-because of t#~e "decline- iii college
'~=enr-ollrnents projected -through 2000-: Employment in the
professional librarians occupation is expected to grow just
slightly less than total employment, or by 13 percent; while
the duties of librarians have become heavily automated,
their work still requires extensive judgment. The number of
counselors in education is projected to grow by 21 percent,
as their duties are expected to extend beyond academic
counseling into such areas as family relations and substance
abuse.
Natural, computer, and mathematical scientists . The
computer systems analysts occupation is expected to have
the largest employment gain (251,000 jobs) and the fastest
growth (76 percent) of any occupation within this job
cluster. Close to half the employment gain for computer
systems analysts is projected to occur in the computer and
data processing services industry. The remaining increase
will be scattered throughout the economy as computers con-
tinue to be used more intensively by an ever-expanding
number of industries and firms. New business and defense
computer applications will continue to be prime sources of
demand. The number of operations and systems researchers
is projected to grow very rapidly (54 percent) due to the
increased importance of quantitative analysis throughout
industries.
The number of life scientists is expected to grow
21 percent, or by 30,000 jobs, from 1986 to 2000. The
government and health services industries are expected to
employ increasing numbers of life scientists as genetic re-
search expands into such areas as new medicines, plant and
animal variations, and diagnostic techniques for genetic de-
fects. Employment of physical scientists is to increase mod-
erately at 13 percent, with 24,000 jobs added due to military
and private research and development. Employment oppor-
Health diagnosing and treating occupations . Employ-
ment for health professionals is expected to grow rapidly (42
percent), adding over 1 million jobs by 2000. Job growth in
the health industries where these workers are employed is
projected to be among the fastest in the economy, except for
the hospital industry, which is projected to grow more
slowly than total employment. A variety of health practi-
tioner occupations in the health industries are projected to
grow faster than the average for total employment, includ-
ing physical therapists (87 percent), optometrists (49 per-
cent), and speech pathologists and audiologists (34 percent).
The projections show 2 million registered nurses in 2000,
an increase of more than 600,000 jobs. The demand for
registered nurses is expected to be particularly strong in
hospitals, where, in response to cost-containment pressures,
nurses will assume some of the duties previously performed
by other health personnel. The number of registered nurses
is projected to grow rapidly in physicians' offices, due to the
increasing size of physician practices and more sophisti-
cated medical technology, and also in nursing and personal
care facilities to care for patients who are expected to have
shorter stays in hospitals.
Employment for physicians and surgeons is projected to
grow rapidly (38 percent), adding 188,000 jobs. Employ-
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ment for physician assistants, a relatively small occupation,
is projected to grow much faster than that of physicians. In
addition, health maintenance organizations and other group
practices are expected to use physician assistants to a greater
degree.
Other professional workers . Most other professional oc-
cupations are expected to have average or above-average
growth rates by 2000. Employment for lawyers is expected
to grow about twice as fast as total employment, or by
36 percent, because of projected strong demand for legal
services by individuals and businesses. Employment of
social workers is expected to rise 33 percent due to the
increased demand for social workers as mental health coun-
selors and therapists.
Technicians . Health services, computer applications, re-
search and development, and legal services will be areas of
the economy where technician occupations are projected to
experience large employment gains. The increase in em-
ployment for health technicians and technologists is ex-
pected to account for about half of the increase for total
technicians-663,000 of the 1,403,000 jobs. The health
technicians and technologists group contains occupations
with duties ranging from cleaning teeth to administering
electrocardiographs. The licensed practical nurses occupa-
tion is expected to have the largest numerical increase
(238,000 jobs) among the health technicians, with many of
these employed in nursing and personal care facilities that
are expected to grow in response to an aging population.
The radiologic technologists and technicians occupation is
expected to have the second largest increase (75,000 jobs),
with gains mainly in offices of physicians and in hospitals.
The number of medical and clinical laboratory technologists
and technicians is expected to increase by 57,000-jobs
throughout the health industries and the number of dental
hygienists is projected t~ increase by 54,000 jobs.
Employment for computer programmers is expected to
grow rapidly by 70 percent, adding 335,000 jobs. Despite
more effective programming tools, demand for software is
expected to spur the growth because of the ever-expanding
range of new applications for computers. Close to one-half
of the job increase for computer programmers is expected to
occur in the computer and data processing services industry.
The" remaining job increases for programmers are expected
to be found throughout the economy.
The engineering and science technicians and technolo-
gists group is expected to gain 285,000 jobs. These workers
are expected to realize healthy job gains in trade, services,
and manufacturing. They perform testing, diagnose compli-
cated problems with equipment, and assist scientists and
engineers in research and development.
The paralegal personnel occupation is projected to be the
fastest growing technician occupation and the fastest grow-
ing occupation overall, increasing by 104 percent. (See
table 4.) Nearly all of its employment gain is expected in
legal services where the paralegal ~workl;rs assist lawyers.
Marketing and salesworkers . A rapid projected growth
rate for the real estate industry is expected to have a favor-
able impact on employment for brokers (increasing by
44 percent) and appraisers (increasing by 41 percent). Other
sales occupations that are expected to grow rapidly are travel
agents (46 percent) and securities and financial services
salesworkers (42 percent). The largest detailed occupation
in the group-salespersons, retail-is projected to grow
34 percent and add more jobs than any other detailed occu-
pation (1.2 million jobs by 2000). (See table 5. )
Administrative support occupations, including clerical.
Office automation and other technological changes are pro-
jected to result in employment declines in several clerical
occupations, including typists and word processors (14 per-
cent); stenographers (28 percent); payroll and timekeeping"
clerks (12 percent); telephone central office operators (18
percent); telephone directory assistance operators (18 per-
cent); procurement clerks (13 percent); data entry keyers,
except composing (16 percent); and statistical clerks" (26
percent). Other clerical occupations, however, are expected
to increase because of rapid growth rates in the industries
employing them or because of the difficulty in automating
their duties. The number of real estate clerks, for example,
is expected to grow by 39 percent; hotel desk clerks by 43
percent; brokerage clerks by 28 percent; receptionists and
Table 4. Fastest growing occupations, 1986-2000,
moderate alternative
[Numbers in thousands]
Chengeln
Employment
employment,
Percent of
Oceupatlon
19862000 `
total
lob growth,
1986
Proms
Number
Percent
1986-2000
Paralegal personnel .........
61
125
64
103.7
.3
Medical assistants ..........
132
251
119
90.4
.6
Physical therapists ..........
61
115
53
87.5
.2
Physical and corrective therapy
assistants and aides .......
36
65 ,
29
81.6
.1
Data processing equipment
repairers ................
69
125
56
80.4
.3
Home health aides ..........
138
249
111
80.1
.5 .
Podiatrists ................
13
23
10
77.2
0
Computer systems analysts,
electronic data processing ...
331
582
251
75.6
1.2
Medical records technicians ...
40
70:
30
75.0
.1
Employment interviewers, private
or public employment
service .................
75
129+:
54
71.2
.3
Computer programmers ......
479
813 ;
335
69.9
1.6
Radiologic technologists and
technicians ..............
115
190;
~. ~ 75
,64.7
.3
Dental hygienists ...........
87
141
54
62.6
.3
Dental assistants ...........
155
244
88
5i.0
.4
Physician assistants .........
26
41_
15
56.7
.1
Operations and systems
researchers .............
38
59
21
54.1
.1
Occupational therapists ......
29
45
15
52.2
.1
Peripheral electronic data
~,F.--%. ~
r
processing equipment
operators ...............
46
adr''?
24
50.8
.1
Data entry keyers, composing
29
43 ; ,
15
50.8
.1
Optometrists ..............
37
55
18
' 49.2
.1
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information clerks by 41 percent; and interviewing clerks,
except personnel and~'social~welfaze, by 45 percent. FLtrther-
more, certain clerical occupations are expected to grow as a
result of being favorably affected by technological change.
The rising use of computers throughout the economy is
expected to spur the demand for computer operators and
peripheral electronic data processing equipment operators;
these occupations are projected to grow by 47 percent and
51 percent, respectively. Also, the data keyers, composing,
occupation is projected to grow by 51 percent, a result of the
increasing use of computerized typesetting technology.
Service workers . -This group is projected to have several
rapidly growing occupations and add lazge numbers of new
jobs. Near the top of the list aze several health service
occupations. The medical assistant occupation, with a
growth rate of 90 percent, is projected to be one of the
fastest growing occupations from 1986 to 2000 because of
the growing acceptance of those workers as acost-effective
way to provide both clinical and clerical support to physi-
cians and other health professionals. The number of home
health aides is projected to grow by 80 percent due to a
number of factors, mainly the growing elderly population
and the continuation of the trend to provide medical caze
outside of the traditional hospital setting.
Other health service occupations with rapid projected
rates of growth over the 1986-2000 period include physical
and corrective therapy assistants (82 percent) and dental
assistants (57 percent). Employment for nursing aides,
orderlies, and attendants is projected to grow by 35 percent,
adding 433,000 jobs by 2000; much of the employment
growth of these workers is expected in the rapidly expanding
nursing and personal Gaze industry. In the slower growing
hospital industry, however, employment in this occupation
is expected to decline by 62,000 jobs due to cost-cutting
efforts.
Employment for food prepazation and service occupations
is projected to grow by 37 percent, increasing by 2.6 million
jobs. These workers are concentrated in eating and drinking
places. This industry is projected to have. the largest numer-
ical job growth of all the industries in the economy from
1986 to 2000-neazly 2.5 million additional jobs. Occupa-
tional employment growth ranges from 17 percent for insti-
tution or cafeteria cooks to 46 percent for restaurant cooks.
The protective service workers group is projected to grow
by 31 percent, or by 645,000 jobs. Within this group, the
largest and most rapidly growing occupation is guards, with
a projected increase of 48 percent. Their growth is expected
to occur mainly in the protective services industry as more
and more firms choose to contract out for protective
services.
Another lazge service occupation with a sizable employ-
ment increase is janitors and cleaners (604,000 jobs), al-
though the growth rate for the occupation will be about the
average for the economy. More and more firms also aze
Table 5. Occupations with the largest job growth, 1986-
2000, moderate alternative
(Numbers in thousands]
Changeln
Employment
employment,
Percent of
Occupation
1986-2000
total
job growth,
ty~
Proms
Number
Percent
t996~2000
Salespersons, retail .........
3,579
4,780
1,201
33.5
5.6
Waiters and waitresses ......
1,702
2,454
752
44.2
3.5
Registered nurses ..........
1,406
2,018
612
43.6
2.9
Janitors and Geaners, inducting
maids and housekeeping
deaners ................
2,676
3,280
604
22.6
2.8
General managers and top
executives ..............
2,383
2,965
582
24.4
2.7
Cashiers .................
2,165
2,740
575
26.5
2.7
Truck drivers, tight and heavy ..
2,211
2,736
525
23.8
2.5
General office decks ........
2,361
2,824
462
19.6
2.2
Food counter, fountain, and
related workers ...........
1,500
1,949
449
29.9
2.1
Nursing aides, ordedies, and
attendants ..............
1,224
1,658
433
35.4
2.0
Seaetaries ...............
3,234
3,658
424
13.1
2.0
Guards ..................
794
1,177
383
48.3
1.8
Accountants and auditors .....
945
1,322
376
39.8
1.8
Computer programmers ......
479
813
335
69.9
1.6
Food preparation workers .....
949
1,273
324
34.2
1.5
Teachers, kindergarten and
elementary ..............
1,527
1,826
299
19.6
1.4
Receptionists and information
darks ..................
682
964
282
41.4
1.3
Computer systems analysts,
electronic data processing ...
331
582
251
75.6
1.2
Cooks, restaurant ...........
520
759
240
46.2
1.1
Licensed practical nurses .....
631
869
238
37.7
1.1
Gardeners and groundskeepers,
exceptfann .............
767
1,005
238
31.1
1.1
Maintenance repairers, general
utility .:. .........
1,039
1,270
232
22.3
1.1
Stock darks, sales floor ......
1,087
1.312
225
20.7
1.0
First-line supervisors and
managers ...............
956
1,161
205
21.4
1.0
Dining room and cafeteria
attendants and
barroom helpers ..........
433
631
197
45.6
.9
Electrical and electronics
engineers ...............
401
592
192
47.8
.9
Lawyere ..................
527
718
191
36.3
.9
expected to contract out for janitorial services, rather than
using their own employees for this work.
Agriculture, forestry, and fishing workers. Although this
group as a whole is projected to have an employment decline
of 163,000 jobs, several detailed occupations aze projected
to have significant employment increases. The most impor-
tant of these increases is for the gazdeners and groundskeep-
ers, except farm, occupation that is projected to gain nearly
240,000 jobs largely because of growth in lawn services and
landscaping services for both individuals and businesses.
Occupations in farming aze projected to account for most
of the employment decline in this group. Employment for
farmers is expected to decline by 332,000 jobs as small
farms continue to be consolidated into larger ones. How-
ever, the process of farm consolidation is projected to lead
to an increase in the number of jobs (47,000) for farm
managers. Employment for farm workers is expected to
decrease'by almost 200,000 jobs as farming methods and
equipment improve.
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Blue-collar worker supervisors. The blue-collar worker
supervisors occupation is expected to gain 144,000 jobs, an
increase of only 8 percent. This slow growth rate is due
mainly to the projected employment decline in manufactur-
ing. However, small employment gains are expected in
some manufacturing industries, including plastics, electron-
ics, and commercial printing. Most of the growth in the
,blue-collar worker supervisors occupation is expected to
occur outside manufacturing, especially in construction and
services.
Construction trades and extractive workers . Employment
for carpenters is projected to grow by about 18 percent, or
by 182,000 jobs-the largest numerical increase among oc-
cupations in this cluster. Close to one-third of the gain is
expected to occur among self-employed carpenters. The
residential building and nonresidential carpentering and
flooring industries are expected to add the bulk of the re-
maining jobs.
Employment in the electricians occupation is projected to
grow by 89,000 jobs. Most of the increase is expected to
occur in construction, which will more than offset job losses
projected for electricians in manufacturing.
Employment for painters and paperhangers (construction
and maintenance) is projected to increase by 90,000 jobs.
More than 40 percent of this increase is expected among
self-employed painters and paperhangers. The wage and
salary. worker increase is projected to occur in the construc-
tion, real estate, and services sectors.
Employment in the plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters
occupation is projected to have an increase of 69,000 jobs,
mainly occurring in construction.
Mechanics, installers, and repairers. The general utility
maintenance repairers occupation is projected to have the
largest job gain (232,000 jobs) within this job cluster, al-
though the growth of 22 percent will be the same as that for
total employment. A large part of the increase is expected in
real estate and services, such as business services, hotels,
nursing care, and education. Employment for bus and truck
mechanics and diesel engineers is projected to grow by
63,000 jobs due to employment gains in trucking, repair
services, and trade. Employment in the data processing
equipment repairers group is projected to increase by 56,000
jobs, or 80 percent, the largest percentage increase of any
occupation in the mechanics, installers, and repairers group.
Most of the increase is expected in the machinery and equip-
ment wholesale trade industry and in the computer and data
processing services industry.
The number of automotive mechanics is projected to
grow by 60,000 jobs, an increase of only 8 percent. This
modest rate of increase is due to a decline in repair work
done in gasoline service stations and from better design and
workmanship in automobiles. . .
Precision production and plant system operators . The
precision production and plant systems operators group is
projected to experience little growth through the year 2000.
The precision woodworkers occupation is expected to add
30,000 of the 134,000 new jobs for the group; the dental
laboratory technicians and sheet metal workers occupations
aze expected to add 18,000 jobs and 19,000 jobs, respec-
tively. The number of machinists is projected to drop by
5,000 jobs. Shoe and leather workers and repairers are ex-
pected to be one of the most rapidly declining occupations
(17 percent) due to the projected declines in the shoe and
leather industries.
Machine setters, set-up operators, operators, and tenders .
This occupational group is projected to have the lazgest job
decline, down 194,000 jobs. Employment for garment
sewing machine operators is expected to decline by 14 per-
cent, or by 92,000 jobs, as a result of the impact of technol-
ogy and foreign imports on employment in the apparel
industry. Other occupations expected to decline include tex-
tile drawout and winding machine operators (55,000 jobs);
chemical equipment controllers and operators (22,000 jobs);
and machine tool cutters, operators, and tenders (19,000
jobs). However, several occupations in this group aze in
industries that aze growing and are expected to make modest
gains: plastic molding machine operators and tenders
(36,000 jobs), laundry and dry cleaning machine operators
and tenders (31,000 jobs), acid offset lithographic press set-
ters and operators (23,000 jobs).
Assemblers and other handwork occupations . Employ-
ment in this group as a whole is projected to decline by
113,000 jobs as many tasks of the workers aze automated.
The increasing use of industrial robots, for example, is
expected to cause electrical and electronic assemblers to be
the fastest declining occupation with a projected loss of
54 percent (table 6) and to cause a more modest 7-percent
decline for welders and cutters. The impact of technological
change is expected to be less severe on precision assemblers
as a group because current robots, which aze expected to be
used on a large scale in the 1990's, are not capable of
performing more complex assembly tasks. The employment
of precision assemblers, therefore, is expected to remain
virtually unchanged from 1986 to 2000.
Transportation and material moving occupations .
Employment in many occupations in this group is expected
to decrease between 1986 to 2000 due to declining industry
employment and technological changes. The railroad indus-
try, for example, is expected to lose about 190,000 jobs,
causing the number of rail transportation workers to drop by
37 percent. The number of wafdr transportation workers is
expected to decline by 8 percent as a result of the projected
employment losses in the water transportation industries.
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The greater use of automated materials handling equipment
in factories and warehouses is projected to cause employ-
ment in the industrial truck and tractor operators occupation
to decrease by about 34 percent. Employment in the truck
drivers occupation, however, is projected to grow by 21
percent, increasing by more than half a million jobs between
1986 and 2000. Other occupations expected to have average
growth rates include bus drivers, parking lot attendants,
excavation and loading machine operators, grading machine
operators, and operating engineers. The aircraft pilots and
flight engineers occupation is projected to increase faster
than the average for total employment, or by 29 percent.
Helpers, laborers, and hand material movers . Occupa-
tions in this group are generally expected to grow more
slowly than the average for total employment except for the
refuse collectors occupation, which is projected to have an
average rate of growth through the year 2000. Declines in
the machine feeders and offbearers occupa'ti'on (6 percent)
and freight, stock, and material movers occupation (2 per-
cent) are expected as a result of technological changes.
Low and high projections
The distribution of employment by broad occupational
group varies little among the projected alternatives for 2000
because of offsetting changes within the broad occupational
groups. (See table 7.) In specific occupations, however,
some significant differences may exist between the moder-
ate and either the low or high alternatives. The differences
in occupational employment from one alternative to another
are caused only by differences in projected industry employ-
ment levels, because the same set of occupational staffing
Table 8. Fastest declining occupations, 1986-2000,
moderate alternative
(Numbers in thousands]
Employment
Percent decline
Occupetlon
Proms
In employment
~~
Electrical and electronic assemblers ..........
`249
t t6
-53.7
Electronic semiconductor processors .........
29
1'4
-51.1
Railroad conductors and yardmasters .........
29
17
-40.9
Railroad brake, signal, and switch operators ....
42
25
-39.9
Gas and petroleum plant and system
ocapations ..
31
20
_34,3
Industrial truck and tractor operators ..........
426
283
-33.8
Shoe sewing machine operators and (enders ...
27
18
-32.1
Station installers and repairers, telephone ......
58
40
-31.8
Chemical equipment controllers, operators
and tenders ..........................
78
52
-29.7
Chemical plant and system operators .........
33
23
-29.6
Stenographers ..........................
178
128
-28.2
Farmers ...............................
.182
850
-28.1
Statistical Jerks .........................
7i
52
-26.4
Textile draw-out and winding machine operators
and tenders ..........................
219
164
-25.2
Central office and rex installers and repairers ...
74
57
-23.1
Farm workers ...........................
940
750
-20.3
Coil winders, tapers, and knishers ...........
34 .
28
-18.5
Central office operators ...................
$2 ?
3'4
-17.9
Directory assistance operators ..............
32
27
-17.7
Compositors, typesetters, and arrangers,
precision .............................
30
25
-17.1
Table 7. Occupational employment distribution, 1986 and
projected to 2000
tkcu
atron
1986
Protected, 2000
p
Low
Moderate
Mlgh
Total, all oceupations ...................
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Managerial and management-related workers ...
9.5
10.2
10.2
10.3
Engineers, architects, and surveyors .........
1.4
1.6
1.6
1.6
Natural saentists and computer specialists .....
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.6
Teachers, librarians, and counselors ..........
4.4
4.4
4.3
4.3
Health-diagnosing and treating specialists .....
2.3
2.8
2.8
2.8
Other professional specialists ...............
3.3
3.5
3.5
3.5
Technicians ............................
3.3
3.8
3.8
3.8.
Marketing and salesworkers ................
11.3
12.3
12.3
12.2
Administrative support, including clerical .......
17.8
16.6
16.6
i6.6
Service workers .........................
15.7
17.3
17.2
17.1
Agriculture, forestry, and fishing workers .......
3.2
2.6
2.6
2.5
Blue-collar worker supervisors ..............
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.5 '
Conshuction trades and extractive workers .....
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.6
Mechanics and repairers ..................
4.2
4.0
4.0
4:0
Precision production and plant systems .
occupations ..........................
2.7
2.4
2.4
2.4
Machine setters and operators ..............
4.4
3.5
3.6
3.6'
Assemblers and other hand workers ..........
2.4
1.9
1.9
2.0
Transportation and material moving workers ....
4.3
4.0
4.0
4.0
Helpers and laborers .....................
3.8
3.4
3.4
3.4
patterns were used for all alternatives. Total employment in
the moderate trend projections varies by only about 4 per-
cent from the high alternative and about 6 percent from the
low alternative. Therefore, the greatest numerical dif-
ferences for specific occupations exist between the low
alternative .projected employment and the moderate trend
employment; the following text tabulation shows these
differences:
Employment difference
Salespersons, retail ............... 216,000
Secretaries ...................... 188,000
General managers and top
executives .................... 145,000
Truck drivers, light and heavy ...... 138,000
Janitors and cleaners .............. 136,000
General office clerks .............. 136,000
Cashiers ........................ 125,000
Bookkeeping, accounting, and
auditing clerks ................. 123,000
Blue-collar worker supervisors ...... 113,000
Waiters and waitresses ............ 94,000
Uses and implications
si.s occupational projections are used extensively for ca-
reer guidance and provide the background for analyses of
future employment opportunities in the BLS Occupational
Outlook Handbook. Job outlook discussions in the 1988-89
edition of the Handbook ,scheduled for release in the spring
of 1988, will use the projections presented in this article.
These projections also provide information for analyzing a
variety of issues, including the relation of education and
training to job opportunities and labor market conditions for
minority groups.
Educational attainment. Much~.ttas-been-written-to_-indi--_~
safe That thy-cttanging-oecup~t~nal~strueture-of_empl_oyment-=-.>
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implies the need:for-a-more h_ighl.y educated-work force.-To
see-if _#he-1-986-2000=aECU}~ational=projections =substantiate=-~.
this'-view; the-occupational=clusters- discussed-previously= -_ -
were=dividedinto-three-groups.- GroupLinclude3 tlse=clusters- ---~
in which at least two-thirds of the workers in 1986 had 1 or
more years of college. Group II includes the clusters in
which the median years of school completed was greater
than 12 and the proportion of those workers with less than
a high school education was relatively low, Group III in-
cludes occupational clusters where the proportion of work-
ers having less than a high school education was relatively
high-more than 30 percent. Given that workers in any
occupational cluster have a broad range of educational back-
ground, these three grolaps can only be based on the educa-
tional level of the majority of workers. Obviously, workers
are employed in each of the groups at each of the educa-
tional levels.
The distribution of total employment in 1986 and pro-
jected 2000 employment for these three groups of educa-
tional attainment is shown in table 8. Thee-data indicate
that employment in the occupations requiring-=the lnost-edu
cation, group I; i~ projected. to increase-as-a proportion-of -;
dotal=elnploym~nt, -while -employment-in-the ottier -two- -
groups=in`wliich workers-had-less education~willaectine-as ='
~a-proportion of-total employment. The proportion of total
employment is expected to decline the most in group III, the
group which requires -the least amount of education. It
should be noted that the service workers group-the only
occupational cluster in the educational attainment group III
with median school years completed above 12 years-is
increasing as a proportion of total employment. All other
occupational clusters in this group are declining (some by
very significant amounts). Conversely, in group I, all the
Table 8. Employment in broad occupational clusters by
level of educational attainment, 1986 and projected to
2000, moderate alternative
lln percent]
Occupation
1986
2000
Total, all groups ...............................
100.0
100.0
Group 1, total ...................................
25.1
27.3
Management and management-related occupations ...
9.5
10.2
and surveyors ................
architects
Engineers
1.4
1.5
,
,
Natural scientists and computer specialists ...........
7
.8
Teachers, librarians, and counselors ................
4.4
4.3
Health diagnosing and treating ....................
2.3
2.8
Other professional specialists .....................
3.5
3.7
Technicians ..................................
3.3
4.0
Groupll,total ...................................
40.8
40.0
Salesworkers .................................
11.3
12.3
Administrative support, including clerical .............
17.8
16.7
Blue-collar worker supervisors .....................
1.6
1.5
Construction tredes and extractive workers ...........
3.4
3.3
Mechanics and repairers .........................
4.2
4.0
Precision production and plant systems workers .......
2.5
2.2
Group III, total ..................................
34.0
32.7
Service workers ...............................
15.7
17.2
Agriculture, forestry, and fishing workers . .............
3.3
2.6
Machine setters and operators ....................
4.5
3.6
Hand workers .................................
2.4
1.9
Transportation and material moving workers ..........
4.3
4.0
Helpers and laborers ...........................
3.8
3.4
Table 9. Projected 1986-2000 growth rate and percent of
total employment in 1986 accounted for by blacks, Hispan-
ics, and women, moderate alternatives
Projected
Percent of total
Occupation
percent
employment in 1988
change,
1988-2000
Black
Hlapanle
Women
Total, all occupations .. ! ................
19
10
7
44
Natural scientists and computef specialists .....
46
6
3
31
Health diagnosing and treating occupations ....
42
6
3
67
Technicans ........:...........:.'......
38
8
4
47
Engineers, archttects, and surveyors. ,.:. , .,, ...
32
d.
3
7
Service workers .........................
31
17
9
61
Marketing and satesworkers .......:...?.....
30
6
5
48
Managerial and management-related workers ...
29
6
4
43
Other professional workers :....... ........
26
7
4
43
Construction trades and extractive workers .....
...-
18
7
8
2 -
Teachers, librarians, and counselors ...........
16
9
3
68
Mechanics and repairers '.' ...:............
15
7
7
3
Administrative, support, including clerical :......
11
11
6
80
Transportation and material moving workers ....
10
14
8
9
Helpers and laborers .... , . ,!.........'.......
6
17
11
16
Precision production and plant systems
occupations ..........................
4
9
9
23
Machine setters and operators ..............
-4
16
13
42
Assemblers and other handwork occupations ...
-4
13
11
38
Agdculure, forestry, and fishing workers .......
-5
7
10
16
~ Does not include.superyisors iri construction trades and extractive workers; mechanics and
repairers; precision production rand plAnf system occupations; or assemblers and other hand?
work oxupatioris. ~ . .
clusters are increasing.. as;,a. percent of, total employment
except for. the" 2,710
2,891
47.2
52.4
54.0
1,393
1,420
1,561
18 to 19 .....................................................
2,949' '
~ 2,631
2,932
'65.3
69.9
72.4
1,927
1,839
2,123
20 to 24 ......................:................:.............
8,351
6,846
6;816
74.1
78.6
80.8
6,191
5,381
5;507
25 to 29 .....................................................
9,073 ?
~? 7,592
'6,948
72.9
79.9
83.0
6,618
.6,066
5,767
30 to 34 .....................................................
~' ? :6,656
8,924
7,747
70.6
80.2
84.1
6,111
7,157
6,515
35 to 39 ...:.................................................
....2,938..
.. 9,175
.8,892
72.7
81.4
85.0
5,768.
7,468
7,558
40 to 44 .....................................................
6,284
8,445
9,152
73.2
80.9
84.2
4,597
6,832
. .
7,706
45 to 49 .....................................................
5,198
7,526
6,363
69.3
77.5
81.0
3,603
5,833
6,774
50 to 54 .....................................................
4,812
6,019
7,467
62.0
66.9
69.5
2,985
4,027
5,190
55 to 59 .....................................................
5,128
4,937
5,907
51.1
53.6
55.0
2,618
2,646
3,249
60 to 61 .....................................................
2,100
1,839
1,991
40.3
40.6
40.8
846
747
812
62 to 64 .....................................................
3,048
2,697
2,731
28.2
28.7
28.8
859
774
787
65 to 69 .....................................................
4,645
4,674
4,293
14.3
12.8
11.8
666
598
507
70 to 71 .....................................................
1,631
1,809
1,694
7.7
7.4
7.2
125
134
122
72 to 74 .....................................................
2,213
2,515
2,464
6.4
6.3
6.3
141
158
155
75 and over ...............................................
6,062
7,473
8,282
2.3
1.8
1.4
137
135
116
Black, 16 and over ........................................
19,989
22,941
24,750
63.5
65.6
66.0
12,684
15,058
16,334
Men ...............................................................
8,957
10,343
11,214
71.2
71.4
70.7
6,373
7,380
7,926
16 to 17 .....................................................
548
572
612
30.1
34.3
36.6
165
196
224
18 to 19 .....................................................
503
495
562
58.4
60.2
61.2
294
298
344
20 to 24 .....................................................
1,195
1,090
1,134
80.1
81.4
81.9
957
887
929
25 to 29 .....................................................
1,204
1,106
1,094
89.3
87.9
87.0
1,075
972
952
30 to 34 .....................................................
1,060
1,261
1,159
90.0
90.6
90.6
954
1,142
1,050
35 to 39 .....................................................
881
1,217
1,253
89.9
91.0
91.3
792
1,107
1,144
40 to 44 .....................................................
636
1,021
1,200
89.2
89.9
90.1
567
918
1,081
45 to 49 .....................................................
565
806
1,014
86.4
86.4
86.4
488
696
876
50 to 54 .....................................................
507
629
807
81.5
80.4
80.5
413
506
650
55 to 59 .....................................................
495
549
631
70.7
68.7
64.2
350
377
405
60 to 61 ..............:......................................
192
203
230
54.2
44.8
39.1
104
91
90
62 to 64 .....................................................
247
269
291
39.3
31.2
27.5
97
84
80
65 to 69 .....................................................
362
435
449
21.0
15.9
14.5
76
69
65
70 to 71 .....................................................
106
141
151
11.3
8.5
6.6
12
12
10
72 to 74 .....................................................
147
171
190
11.6
7.6
6.8
17
13
13
75 and over ............................:.:................
309
378
437
3.9
3.2
3.0
12
12
13
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 Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
A-2. Civlllan noninstitutlonal popufatlon and labor force by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin, 1986 and projected 1995 and
2000-Continued
Population
Labor force participation
Labor force
Group
1886
1995
2000
1988
1995
.'2000
1988
1995
2000
Women .........................................................
11,032
12,598
13,538
57.2
60.9
62.1
6,311
7,678
8,408
16 to 17 .....................................................
542
559
592
29.0
34.5
37.2
157
193
220
18 to 19 .....................................................
545
528
593
49.2
54.5
57.0
268
288
338
20 to 24 .....................................................
1,430
1,300
1,339
84.8
67.9
69.8
924
883
932
25 to 29 .....................................................
1,451
1,348
1,319
71.8
74.2
75.7
1,039
1,000
998
30 to 34 .....................................................
1,311
1,508
1,385
75.3
78.4
80.2
987
1,182
1,111
35 to 39 ....:................................................
1,093
1,454
1,489
77.2
82.3
83.4
844
1,197
1,242
40 to 44 .....................................................
800
1,237
1,421
74.1
79.9
82.1
593
988
1,187
45 to 49 .....................................................
704
898
1,232
70.8
78.5 ,~
79.1
497
783
975
50 to .54 .....................................................
837
789
1,002
62.2
87.3
70.1
396
531
.702
55 to 59 .....................................................
800
888
762
53.0
55.0
58.2
318
388
428
80 to 81 .....................................................
235
243
278
38.2
39.1
38.8
85
95
108
82 to 64 .....................................................
310
331
357
31.0
29.6
28.9
96
98
103
85 to 69 .....................................................
474
546
558
13.9
9.4 '
8.1
68
51
45
70 to 71 ............................:........................
188
188
194
7.8
5.9
4.6
13
11
9
72 to 74 .....................................................
207
243
283
5.3
5.3 :
3.8 ..
11
13
10
75 to 79 ............................:........................
527
883
752
3.2
2.9 ~
2.7
17
19
20
Asian and other, 16 and over ......................
5,184
7,375
8,719
64.9
65,8.
.
~ 65.8.
3,352
4,854
5,740
Men ...............................................................
2,450
3,485
4,088
74.9 '
~
73.3 t.';'
72:4
1,834
2,541
2,958
16 to 17 .....................................................
136
158
199
29.4
29.1 ..
29:1
40
46
58
18 to 19 .....................................................
110
151
195
55.5
57.8
57.9
81
87
.113
20 to 24 .....................................................
301
377
419
68.4
68:2
..68.3
206
257
288
25 to 29 .....................................................
317
388
436
89.9
86.8
86.2
285
338
376
30 to 34 .....................................................
353
444
462
85.3
85.8
85.9
301
381
397
35 to 39 .....................................................
278
413
456
93.2
90.8
90.6
259
375
413
40 to 44 ............................:........................
224
375
437
91.1
90.7
90.4
204
340
395
45 to 49 .....................................................
193
304
388
92.7
89.1
88.9
179'
271
345
50 to 54 .....................................................
142
232
313
86.6
85.8
85.6
123
199
288
55 to 59 .....................................................
117
179
231
82.1
80.4
79.2
96
144
183
60 to 61 .....................................................
38
59
78
88.4
54.2
52.6
26
32
41
62 to 64 .....................................................
46
77
101
47.8
49.4
47.5
22
38
48
65 to 69 .....................................................
85
111
134
28:2
24.3
21.6
24
27
29
70 to 71 .....................................................
21
39
44
9.5
7.7
4.5
2
3
2
72 to 74 .....................................................
28
52
59
10.7
5.8
3.4
3
3
2
75 and over ..............................................:
61
106
136
4.9
1.9
1.5
3
2
2
Women .........................................................
2,714
3,910
4,631
55.9
59.2
60.1
1,518
2,313
2,782
16 to 17 .....................................................
124
153
194
24.2
26.8
24.7
30
41
48
18 to 19 .....................................................
109
150
194
45.0
45.3
45.9
49
68
89
20 to 24 .....................................................
290
398
448
61.4
66.3
68.5
178
264
307
25 to 29 .....................................................
370
414
469
59.5
69.6
72.5
220
288
340
30 to 34 .....................................................
373
453
481
62.7
72.4
76.3
234
328
367
35 to 39 .....................................................
.
336
438
472
68.5
77.4
80.9
230
339
382
40 to 44 .....................................................
240
413
467
71.7
78.7
82.0
172
325
383
45 to 49 .....................................................
217
344
423
71.0
74.1
76.1
154
255
322
50 to 54 .....................................................
176
265
365
63.1
67.9
70.4
111
180
257
55 to 59 .....................................................
131
208
275
55.0
58.2
59.6
72
121
164
60 to 61 .....................................................
46
76
93
45.7
43.4
43.0
21
33
40
62 to 64 .....................................................
77
105
124.
32.5
33.3
33.1
25
35
41
65 to 69 .....................................................
90
163
191
15.6
14.1
13.1
14
23
25
70 to 71 .....................................................
25
52
65
12.0
9.8
8.2
3
5
6
72 to 74 .........................:.............:.............
31
68
86
6.5
5.9
7.0
2
4
6
75 and over ................:..............................
79
210
284
3.8
1.9
1.8
3
4
5
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 Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
A-2. Civilian nonlnstitutional population and labor force by age, sex, race, and Hispanic oHgin. 1986 and protected 1995 and?
2000-Continued ..,.
(Population and labor force in thousands and labor force participation in percent)
Population
Labor force participation
Labor force
Group
1986
1995
2000
1986
1995
2000
1988
1995
2000
Hispanic', 16 and over ..................................
12,343.
17,372
20,490
65.4
86.7
67.1
8,076
11,787
14,088
Men ...............................................................'
6,105
8,711
10,322
81.0
79.8
78.8
4,948
7,048
8,303
16 to 17 .....................................................
330
433
534
34.5
38.8
38.1
114
159
203
18 to 19 .................................................:..:
325
421
497
68.3
71.8
73.3
222
302
384
20 to 24 .....................................................
1,006
1,112
1,254
88.3
88.8
89.4
888
985
1,121
25 to 34 .....................................................
1,787
2,483
2,658
93.4
94.0
93.7
1,669
2,334
2,491
35 to 44 .....................................................
1,088
~ 1,934
2;397
93.3
93.8
93.2
1,015.
1,810
2,234
45 to 54 ....................................................:
735
1,092
1,471
89.8
88.6
88.2
661
888
1,297
55 to 59 .....................................................
241
355
454
81.3
79.8
78.3
196
283
380
80 to 64 .....................................................
225 '
290
339
58.4
53.0
52.6
127
' ~4
178
65 and over ...............................................
368
591
718
15.2
8.9
7.7
58
; 3
55
Women .........................................................
6,238
8,661
10,168
50.1
54.0
55.7
3,128
4,739
5,783
16 to 17 ...................................................:.
328
417
515
27.1
31.5
33.7
88
132
173
18 to 19 ....................................................:
319 '.~
_ 411
483
46.1
52.4
54.5
147
215
283
20 to 24 ...................................................:.
. 893
1,063
1,197
58.9
62.0
84.2
528
859
770
25 to 34 ..:..................................................
1,723
2,233
2,402
59.0
85.0
68.1
1,016
1
1,836
35 to 44 ...................................................::
.~ 1,151
1,818
2,184
60.6
67.9
71.6
698
1,. 4 .
1,549
45 to 54 .....................................................
760
1,156
1,499
57.4
63.5
66.7
436
734
1,000
55 to 59 ...................................................
< 303 ~%
~ ' 399
503
41.6
44.3
45.4
128
177
228
60 to 64 ....................................................:
. 254 ~
339
393
24.4
26.7
26.9
62
90
108
65 and over ..............................................:
507
825
1,012
5.5
5.7
5.7
28
47
58
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 Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
B-1. Gross national product by Industry, 1977, 1982, 1965, and projected 2000
(Millions of-1982 dollars)
Industry
1977
1982
1985
2000
Low
2000
Moderate
2000
High
Total ......................................................................................................
2,958,614
3,165,946
3,585,085
4,617,484
5,161,421
5,552,438
1. Livestock and livestock products .....................................................
1,814
2,463
3,868
3,990
4,918
5,185
2. Other agricultural products ......................:.........................................
36,107
37,558
38,855
42,496
52,200
66,092
3. Agricultural services, forestry, and fishing .......................................
-414
1,263
2,134
5,603
6,690
7,039
4. Metal mining ........................................................................................
-1,457
33
521:
388
170
142'
5. Coal mining ......................:...................................................................
3,805
5,821
4,517
5,721
6,159
6,307
6. Crude petroleum, natural gas, and gas liquids ...............................
-82,504
-42,040
-38,393
-77,192
-94,157
-104,814
7. Oil and gas field services ..................................................................
21,437
36,672
33,234
30,118
38,529
44,272
8. Nonmetallic minerals, except fuels ...................................................
1,183
539
?~ -266
-740
-653
-546
9. New nonfarm housing, single units ..................................................
92,623
41,188
79,404
95,845
101,352
142,021
10. New nonfarm housing, nec ...............................................................
17,841
17,780
29,186
21,901
23,439
32,270
ti. Nonfarm residential alterations and additions ................................
25,238
21,302
29,660
34,751
36,822
51,392 ..
12. New farm housing, alterations, and additions ................................
2,369
1,498
1,042
568
600
841
13. New industrial buildings .....................................................................
12,556
17,177
14,358
10,454
15,005
19,177
14. New office buildings ..........................................................................
10,704
25,476
30,989
32,166
40,643
42,262
15. New commercial buildings except offices ......................................
16,011
15,871
26,271
32,258
40,111
41,172
18. New educational buildings ................................................................
10,118
7,498
7,673
7,130
10,484
11,183
New hospitals and institutions ..........................................................
17.
7,762
8,298
~~ -7,074;.
6,706
8,003
8,197
.
18. New nonfarm buildings, nec .............................................................
7,811
9,771
13,999.
... 16,176
20,403
25,140
19. New communications facilities .........................................................
6,158
6,952
6,860
5,407
8,185
10,893
20.. New electric utility facilities ...............................................................
18,283
17,790
14,865
11,155
20,499
23,45'
21. New water supply and sewer facilities ............................................
11,357
10,378
11,310
11,425
16,546
17,746
22. New gas utility and pipeline facilities ..............................................
3,989
3,620
3,550.
1,692
3,546
4,244
23. New roads ..........................:...............................................:................
18,901
16,130
~ 20,426
21,187
26,249
27,745
24. New local transit facilities .................................................................
1,182
1,083
1,033
824
1,024
1,081
25. New conservation and development facilities ................................
4,574
4,050
3,826
2,876
3,545
3,834
26. New nonbuilding facilities, nec .........................................................
15,169
10,938
9,876
.. 6,925
9,916
11,212
27. Maintenance and repair construction ..............................................
33,248
33,499
47,785
. 46,261
57,066
65,963
28. Logging camps and logging contractors .........................................
1,048
943
1,038
2,152
2,489
2,653
29. Sawmills and planing mills ................................................................
-2,545
-1,376
_ -3;121
-3,099
-3,442
-3,293
30. Millwork and structural wood members, nec ..................................
314
-40
33
116
473
648
31. Veneer and plywood ..........................................................................
-508
-394
-768
-461
-255
-169
32. Wood containers and miscellaneous wood products ...................
671
554
576
.. 955
1,056
1,056
33. Mobile homes .....................................................................................
4,363
3,576
4,137
3,180
3,804
4,703
34. Prefabricated wood buildings ...........................................................
211
38
55
64
152
197
35. Household furniture ...........................................................................
12,917
11,887
13,813
17,998
19,355
21,136
36. Partitions and fixtures ........................................................................
2,945
2,969
3,529
5,735
6,809
7,317
37. Office and miscellaneous furniture and fixtures ............................
5,405
6,722
8,386. ?
13,497
15,920
16,733
38. Glass and glass products .................................................................
2,108
1,157
857
919
1,205
1,093
39. Hydraulic cement ...............................................................................
-99
-62
-535
-540
-592
-613
40. Concrete, gypsum, and plaster products ........................................
524
8
72
-53
236
363
41. Stone, clay, and miscellaneous mineral products .........................
1,863
875
_ 344
.. 538
552
380
42: Blast furnaces and basic steel products ..............................:.........
-7,303
-13,553
-11,687
~ -13,302
-17,293
-18,473.
43. Iron and steel foundries ......................................................:.............
604
-193
1 ~
~: -294
-468
-584
44. Primary aluminum ...............................................................................
-1,382
-1,224
_ -693:'
~~ -918
-1,145
-1,235 .
45. Primary nonferrous metals, except aluminum ................................
-3,949
-2,562
-3,657
-3,879
-4,367
-4,590
46. Miscellaneous primary and secondary metals ...............................
7
-59-
48
53
58
64
47. Copper rolling and drawing ...............................................................
-194
-237
-332
~ -403
-524
-536
48. Aluminum rolling and drawing ..........................................................
870
-347.
,.-370
-283
-208
-135
49. Nonferrous rolling and drawing, nec ...............................................
262
145
.. 394
364
371.
394
50. Nonferrous wire drawing and insulating ..........................................
650
138
18
137
-18
-144
Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
 Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
B-1. Gross national product by industry, 1977, 1982, 1985, and protected 2000~Continued
(Millions of 1982 dollars)
Industry
1977
1982
1985
2000
Low
2000
Moderate
2000
High
51. Aluminum'foundries ...........................................................................
201
97
189
224
317
365
52. Nonferrous foundries, except aluminum .........................................
48
10
63
77
104
117
53. Metal cans and shipping containers ..:..:.:........................................
457
187
92
89
.39
-58
54. Cutlery, hand tools, and hardware ...................................................
3,182
1,787
1,837
2,350
2,657
2,255
55. Plumbing and nonelectric heating equipment ................................
851
25
427
373
539.
576
56. Fabricated structural metal products ...............................................
8,259
5,978
5,732
6,704
8,807
10,173
57. Screw machine products, bolts, rivets, etc .....................................
-119
-425
-518
-575
-507
-478
58. Forgings ...............................................................................................
218
-63
134
147
180
199
59. Automotive stampings .........................:.............................................
1,228
926
1,215
1,305
2,082
2,145
60. Stampings, except automotive ....................:....................................
1,356
1,094
1,341
1,485
1,668
1,835
61. Metal coating, engraving, and allied services ......:.........................
~ 110
36
126
100
170
203
62. Ordnance, except vehicles and missiles .:.:....................................
3,978
5,074
6,327
8,012
9,639
10,236
63. Miscellaneous fabricated metal products .......................................
4,211
2,338
1,328
1,810
2,053
1,833
64. Engines and turbines ...........................:..:..........................................
7,768
4,963
4,421
4,534
5,321
4,314
65. Farm and garden machinery .............:..:..::..:....................................
15,393
10,007
8,633
10,337
9,512
8,524
66. Construction machinery .....................................................................
15,459
8,033
8,270
9,688
10,084
10,225
67. Mining and oil field machinery ..........................................................
7,302
9,363
5,472
6,137
7,160
.8,218
68. Materials handling machinery and equipment .....:..........................
5,122
4,533
4,522
6,094
7,287
8,019
69. Metalworking machinery ..................:..::.:.:..:.:....................................
14,237
11,486
11,715
13,144
15,644
16,214
70. Special industry machinery ..:..............:...:..:......................................
11,408
9,228
9,394
8,672
9,382
9,221
71. General industrial machinery ............................................................
11,494
9,335
7,928
10,173
10,878
10,355
72. Electronic computing equipment .......:::::....:....................................
4,553
24,651
59,756
148,042
172,656
192,272
73. Office and accounting machines ......:::::...:......................................
2,324
4,842
5,918
9,001
9,232
8,314
74. Refrigeration and service industry machinery .......::.......................
7,207
6,665
7,104
9,946
12,160
13,079.
75. Miscellaneous nonelectrical machinery .:...:......................................
716
992
1,254
1,678
2,467
2,923
76. Electric distributing equipment .......:.................................................
4,206
3,303
3,146
2,796
4,883
6,130
77. Electrical industrial apparatus.........: .................................................
4,682
3,937
3,332
3,834
4,042
3,869
78. Household appliances .........................:...............................:.............
11,404
9,593
11,727
18,055
19,029
20,345
79. Electric lighting and wiring equipment .............................................
3,550
2,282
2,126
2,477
2,641
2,441
80. Electronic home entertainment equipment .....................................
3,738
4,689
4,690
14,477
12,170
10,464
81. Telephone and telegraph apparatus ...............................................
6,869
8,501
10,147
15,291
18,146
20,153
82. Radio and TV communication equipment .......................................
15,646
27,685
36,363
55,736
66,716
72,610
83. Electronic tubes ....................................::.:..........................................
880
225
213
174
193
152
84. Semiconductors and related devices ...:..............:...........................
38
11
-1,896
260
-3,492
-7,118
85. Miscellaneous electronic components ............................................
1,267
1,697
-1,883
-1,514
-6,749
-11,125
,..
86. Storage batteries and engine electrical parts ................................
2,610
1,742
2,145
2,684
3,114
2,468
87. X-ray and other electromedical apparatus .....................................
2,799
3,604
3,986
7,089
7,906
8,030
88. Electrical equipment and supplies, nec ..........................................
1,012
1,285
1,796
2,663
2,838
2,941
89. Motor vehicles and car bodies .........::..............................................
101,652
64,974
104,771
115,759
132,986
147,387
90. Motor vehicle parts and accessories ...:..........................................
3,016
2,986
1,073
3,524
6,027
3,541
91. Truck and bus bodies, trailers, and motor homes .........................
7,965
4,633
6,902
8,197
10,392
12,254
92. Aircraft .....................................................:...............:...........................
20,476
27,522
30,626
31,620
38,203
42,981
93. Aircraft and missile engines and equipment .............:....................
12,687
17,635
22,568
28,192
32,546
33,428
94. Guided missiles and space vehicles ...............................................
7,775
9,141
14,327
14,574
17,213
18,277
95. Ship and boat building and repairirig ~ .::...........................................
12,929
13,398
11,684
10,386
11,996
12,895
96. Railroad equipment ............................................................................
4,899
1,949
1,699
694
576
618
97. Miscellaneous transportation equipment ........................................
4,798
4,749
5,771
8,968
9,629
9,159
98. Engineering and scientific instruments :...........................................
2,758
2,911
3,286
4,384
5,366
5,901 .
99. Measuring and controlling devices ...::.............................................
8,067
9,967
11,447
15,297
19,852
21,520
100. Optical and ophthalmic products ....:...:...........................................
2,240
4,402
5;334
10,317
11,909
12,359
Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
 Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
B-1. Gross national product by Industry, 1977, 1962, 1985, and protected 2000-Continued
(Millions of 1982 dollars)
Industry
1977
1982
1985
2000
Low
2000
Moderate
2000
High
101. Medical instruments and supplies ...................................................
4,649
6,147
7,054
12,722
15,086
15,915
102. Photographic equipment and supplies ...........................................
7,877
9,365
10,418
13,286
~ 15,285.
16,452
103. Watches, clocks, and parts .............................................................
941
427
200
146
43
-254
104. Jewelry, silverware, and plated ware ..............................................
7,577
4,440
4,460
4,743
4,842
3,627
105. Toys and sporting goods .................................................................
6,737
7,063
6;32.0
8,759
9,822
9,162
106. Manufactured products, nec ............................................................
7,217
6,056
5,977
_ , 5,816
6,881
7,281
107. Meat products ....................................................................................
41,235
40,707
44,691
48,577
53,017
58,838
108. Dairy products ....................................................................................
26,962
25,918
28,588
,
30,882
33,206
36,400
109. Canned, dried, and frozen foods ' ....................................................
24,551
22,620
_
2.3,592
28,444
31,291
34,791
110. Grain mill products and fats and oils .............................................
13,069
16,525
.16,497 ,
19,347
22,239
25,464
111. Bakery products ................................................................................
15,642
14,185
14,709
15,747
16,923
18,531
112. Sugar and confectionery products ..................................................
8,823
8,193
8,503,
8,545
9,317
10,391
113. Alcoholic beverages ..........................................................................
14,494
14,962
14,618
15,524
16,450
18,188
114. Soft drinks and flavorings ................................................................
12,604
13,831
14,598
17,372
18,577
20,437
115. Miscellaneous foods and kindred products ...................................
12,219
15,803
16,413.
,,. 20,632
22,323
24,398
116. Tobacco manufactures .....................................................................
16,514
16,653
.15,380
. , 12,015
14,548
16,134
117. Weaving, finishing, yarn and thread mills ......................................
2,513
225
-187
-856
-646
-2,153
118. Knitting mills .......................................................................................
2,078
2,598.
. ' ... 3.,295 ,
~
. ;, 4,284
4,826
5,283
119. Floor covering mills ...........................................................................
3,683
3,709 '
4;Si 2
~
7,367
8,323
9,055
120. Miscellaneous textile goods ................................:............................
219
186
" "" 125'
107
182
313
121. Apparel ...............................................................................................
38,431
38.705
35,966
42,479
42,291
44,408
122. Miscellaneous fabricated textile products ......................................
6,224
6,029
6,389
7,692
9,125
9,327
123. Pulp, paper, and paperboard mills ..................................................
-1,524
-1,004
-3,550'~
'~ -3,845
-4,268
-4,474
124. Converted paper products except containers ...............................
9,534
10,077
11,314
~ 15,808
18,934
20,775
125. Paperboard containers and boxes ..................................................
1,047
516
698
848
1,305 ,
1,511
126. Newspapers .......................................................................................
5,974
6,235
5,588
5,693
6,663
7,245
127. Periodicals ..........................................................................................
3,793
4,845
4,198;
5,021
5,984
6,547
128. Books ..................................................................................................
7,231
6.754
"7;481
7,776
10,499
11,661
129. Miscellaneous publishing ..................................................................
1,023
913
1,123
1,493
1,960
2,170
130. Commercial rintin and business forms .......................................
P 9
3,725
3,534
: 3;968.
, ,
4,862
7,165
8,004
131. Greeting card publishing ........:.........................................................
893
1,321
1,642
2,376
2,869
3,158
132. Blankbooks and bookbinding .............:.............................................
568
507
559
758.
1,102
1,236
133. Printing trade services ......................................................................
134. Industrial chemicals ...........................................................................
29
6,631
12
5,907
: " ' ; ., 16,
~ `'4,283` ~
~ '}
19
` 4,270
40
7,566
51
10,087
135. Plastics materials and synthetics ....................................................
2,262-
2,898
_
2,443
4,537
6,613
8,045
136. Drugs ...................................................................................................
12,392
13,213
14,352.
, 21.363
27,029
29.978
137. Soap, cleaners, and toilet goods ....................................................
18,742
18,971
19,712
25,748
30,676
33,515
138. Paints and allied products ................................................................
860
787
878
1,188
1,612
1,839
139. Agricultural chemicals .......................................................................
1,832
1,754
_''2,754"
` 5
2,538
3,606
4,224
-140. Miscellaneous chemical products ...................................................
2,195
2,203-
2,973'
' 3,369
4,878
5,601
141. Petroleum refining .............................................................................
91,177
80,283
88,185.
. 91,982
103,702
109,504
142. Miscellaneous petroleum and coal products ......................:..........
2,012
1,528
;,,_1,544
,. 1,692
2,058
2,253
143. Tires and inner tubes ........................................................................
5,852
3,329
3,731
~' 2,899
3,607
3,152
144. Rubber products and plastic hose and footwear ..........................
2,115
2,195
2,461':
, 2,650
3,229
3,525
145'. Miscellaneous plastics products ......................................................
2,817
2,602
' 2,455'
' ' 3,809
5,269
6,456
146. Footwear except rubber and plastic ...............................................
5,899
4,881
3,934,
. 2,683
2,541
2,401
147. Luggage, handbags, and leather products, nec .....................:......
2,182
1,829
1,627
929
1,132
1,282
148. Railroad transportation .....................................................................
9,505
10,245
,,; 10,554.
, , 10,776
12,635
14,035
.........................................
senger transit
n
775
'
8,162
10,379
. 11,038
:
9 9 .............................................................
150. Truckin
and wa ehousin
21,798
19,831
24
,227
' 31,352
. 37.091
40,404
Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
 Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
B-1. Gross natlonai product by Industry, 1977, 1882, 1985, and protected 2000-Continued
Industry
1977
1982
1985
2000
Low
2000
Moderate
2000
High
151. Water transportation ...........:..............:.......:...............:....:.................
13,458
11,832
14,259
16,414
19,260
21,297
152. Air transportation ...............................................................................
29,220
26,782
31,994
52,635
63,171
66,889
153. Pipe lines, except natural gas ............::..............:............................
2,201
1,511
1,679
1,934
2,300
2,486
154. Arrangement of passenger transportation .....................................
1,101
1,424
2,157
4,055
4,938
5,354
155. Miscellaneous transportation services ...........................................
193
234
261
345
438
505
156. Communications except broadcasting .:.......................:..................
36,347
49,378
47,463
71,356
84,832
91,885
157. Radio and television broadcasting ..................................................
452
728
842
1,963
2,280
2,358
158. Electric utilities including combined services .................................
49,326
52,989
59,890
82,771
88,451
96,676
159. Gas utilities including combined services;..........?....???????????????????????
24,405
25,189
26,080
28,708
29,843
29,991
160. Water and sanitation including combired services ......................
8,491
9,366
10,231
12,021
13,964
14,415
161. Wholesale trade ....................................:...........................................
138,833
149,132
182,126
244,998
288,971
321,294
162. Retail trade, except eating and drinking places ...:........................
231,492
259,966
304,787
426,180
469,497
511,516
163. Eating and drinking places .....................:.....:................:..................
98,725
109,375
120,841
147,865
154,135
168,205
164. Banking ............................................:..:.:.....:.......................................
40,987
49,343
56,351
79,874
93,772
98,265
165. Credit agencies and investment offices .........................................
6,905
7,216
9,728
14,095
16,385
16,969
166. Security and commodity brokers :anil~exchanges .........................
8,286
9,649
18,346
29,824
34,828
36,173
167. Insurance carriers ..............................:................:..............................
45,319
51,487
56,429
68,236
79,654
82,769
168. Insurance agents, brokers, and se`mice :..........:..............................
0
0
0
0
0
0
169. Real estate ...................................!....:.:::...........i..:...........................
103,385
102,202
116,812
147,136
170,358
185,432
170. Owner~ccupied dwellings .........:...:..................:..............................
. 194,189
228,458
241,087
320,602
364,711
377,805
171. Hotels and other lodging places ..t ..:......:.........:.........:....................
16,027
17,630
18,560
22,474
25,974
26,997
172. Laundry, cleaning, and shoe repair:,;: :......................:......................
8,911
7,546
8,317
7,458
8,777
9,096
173. Personal services, nec ...............:....:::...,...........:...........................:..
8,264
10,350
10,747
14,684
17,054
17,642
174. Beauty and barber shops ..................:..............................................
10,581
9,945
11,393
11,239
13,052
13,502
175. Funeral service and crematories ....:.................:..:...........................
4,540
3,652
3,452
3,457
4,015
4,154
176. Advertising .........................................:.....:...........:..............................
1,568
1,338
1,423
1,564
2,073
2,203
177. Services to dwellings and other buildings .....................................
1,616
1,594
2,043
3,131
3,815
3,997
178. Personnel supply services ..............:................:...:...........................
2,535
3,040
4,186
5,792
6,732
7,075
179. Computer and data processing services ........................................
3,866
'7,303
8,799
12,466
15,759
16,798
180. Research, management, and consulting services ........................
7,453
9,565
10,998
13,250
16,336
17,679
181. Detective and protective services .:.................................................
-7
62
-27
213
67
62
182. Equipment rental and leasing ........:.................:...............................
1,145
1,514
2,041
4,230
4,783
5,029
183. Photocopying, commercial art, photofinishing ...............................
2,586
3,061
3,662
6,896
8,006
8,293
184. Credit reporting and business services, nec .................................
1,015
1,012
1,169
1,471
1,844
1,931
185. Automotive rentals, without drivers ....:............:...............................
1,266
1,035
1,321
1,340
1,837
1,963
186. Automobile parking, repair, and .services .......:...............................
39,306
35,005
42,449
49,625
58,753
62,501
187. Electrical repair shops ..........................:...........:...............................
4,940
4,549
4,598
4,295
5,014
5,196
188. Watch, clock, jewelry, and furniture repair .....................................
2,875
3,050
2,915
2,566
2,965
3,061
189. Miscellaneous repair shops and related services .........................
1,894
2,291
2,517
2,470
2,904
2,939
190. Motion pictures .................................................:................................
4,670
5,765
5,514
6,261
7,330
7,864
191. Theatrical producers and entertainers ~ ..........:................................
1,487
2,197
2,553
5,067
5,884
6,093
192. Bowling alleys and billiard establishments ....:..:.............................
1,867
1,729
1,594
1,430
1,661
1,718
193. Commercial sports ....................:........:..............................................
2,930
3,329
3,263
3,389
3,925
4,070
194. Amusement and recreation services, nec .......:.............................
10,758
17,170
18,807
35,260
40,931
42,374
195. Offices of health practftioners .i ..:..:................................................
65,804
78,249
87,035
141,373
149,490
157,933
196. Nursing and personal care facilities .` ............................................
16,242
20,440
21,741
35,213
37,162
39,259
197. Hospitals, Private ...............................~..............:..:.............................
73,349
91,406
96,017
138,884
146,703
154,988
198. Outpatient facilities and health services,nec ..:..:...........................
12,723
17,385
22,608
41,372
43,937
46,347
199. Legal services ..............................:.:..:..`.`............:.:..............................
19,407
21,422
24,054
28,446
33,787
35,243
200. Educational services, private ......:......:...:.........................................
29,813
31,578
35,639
40,998
47,087
48,835
Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
 Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
B-1. Gross national product by Industry, 1977, 1982, 1985, and protected 2000-Continued
(Millions of 1982 dollars)
Industry
1977
1982
1985
2000
Low
2000
Moderate
2000
High
201. Individual and miscellaneous social services ................................
7,259
10,746
12,774
17,582
20,419
21,123
202. Job training and related services .......:............................................
1,470
1,792
2;008
2,553
2,970
3,077
203. Child day care services ....................................................................
5,021
6,246
8,254
15,130
17,571
18,176
204. Residential care .................................................................................
3,774
4,978
6,480
11,646
13,525
13,991
205. Museums and noncommercial organizations, nec ........................
5,403
7,658
8,866
12,320
14,306
14,802
206. Business and professional associations ........................................
1,428
1,616
1,764
2,090
2,471
2,563
207. Labor, civic, and social organizations .............................................
9,114
9,041
9,645
~ 10,876
12,645
13,103
208. Religious organizations .....................................................................
15,292
15,709
15,824
16,304
18,934
19,587
209. Private households ............................................................................
8,646
7,659
9,284
8,671
9,925
10,193
210. Engineering and architectural services ..........................................
2,453
3,470
1,996
4,261
-5,415
6,308
211. Accounting, auditing, and services, nec .........................................
3,233
4,285
4,826
5,200
6,843
7,267
212. Post Office .........................................................................................
4,835
5,887
' 7;112
9,574
11,107
11,500
213. Federal electric utilities ........:............................................................
0
0
0
- 0
0
0
214. Commodity Credit Corporation ........................................................
-80
-143
-171
-171
-187
-200
215. Federal government enterprises, nec .............................................
-52
35
-168
-376
-375
-376
~.t.>
216. Federal general government ............................................................
109,516
116,880
122,600
132,701
135,266
137,827
217. Local government passenger transit ..............................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
218. State and local electric utilities .......................................................
0
0
- 0??
0
0
0
219. State and local government enterprises, nec ...............................
5,485
6,509
7,152
8,551
9,963
10,355
220. State and local government hospitals ............................................
14,810
17;935
20,207
28,011
28,626
29,513
221. State and local government education ..........................................
114,413
120,749
123,942
154,533
157,930
162,825
222. State and local general government, nec ......................................
72,984
88,193
~- 90,525'?
, ; 115,372
117,933
121,592
223. Noncomparable imports ...................................................................
-15,819
-19,451
-21,068`
~` -20,001
-26,860
-32,559
224. Scrap, used and secondhand goods ..............................................
-4,636
-2,985
-7,130
-6,721
-12,287
-16,875
225. Rest of the world industry ................................................................
37,861
46,452
40,141
80,175
71,332
70,744
226. Inventory valuation adjustment ........................................................
-33;123
-11,229
~-14,525
-6,347
-34,468
-47,670
Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
 Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
B-2. Personal consumption expenditures by Industry, 1977, 1982, 1985, and projected 2000
(Millions of 1982 dollars)
Intlustry
1977
1982
1985
2000
Low
2000
Moderate
2000
High
Total ........................................................................:.............................
1,883,755
2,050,666
2,324,521
3,101,166
3,429,450
3,659,668
1. Livestock and livestock products .....................................................
3,594
3,285
3,831
4,567
4,966
5,317
2. Other agricultural products ................................................................
11,582
10,722
12,336
14,905
16,149
17,600
3: Agricultural services, forestry, and fishing .......................................
1,547
3,008
4,340
8,994
10,105
10,699
4. Metal mining .......................................:................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
5. Coal mining ..........................................................................................
343
190
175
163
161
158
6. Crude petroleum, natural gas, and gas liquids ...............................
0
0
0
0
0
0
7. Oil and gas field services ..................................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
8. Nonmetallic minerals, except fuels .........:.........................................
36
84
92
120
131
142
9. New nonfarm housing, single units .....:..:.........................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
10. New nonfarm housing, nec ...............................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
1 i. Nonfarm residential alterations and additions ................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
12. New farm housing, alterations, and additions ................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
13. New industrial buildings .....................................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
14. New office buildings ..........................................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
15. New commercial buildings except offices ........:.............................
0
0
0
0
0
0
r ?,
16. New educational buildings ................................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
17. New hospitals and institutions ........::................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
18. New nonfarm buildings, nec ...................:...........;..,..........................
0
0
0
0
0
0
19. New communications facilities ....:..:....:..:::.........:.............................
0
0
0
0
0
0
20. New electric utility facilities ...............................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
21. New water supply and sewer facilities ..:.:.......................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
22. New gas utility and pipeline facilities:.?.?::?.:.?.???......???.?.?......???.?.???..?
0
0
0
0
0
0,
23. New roads ...........................................................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
24. New local transit facilities ..:...................:............:.............................
0
0
0
0
0
0
25. New conservation and development facilities ..:.............................
0
0
0
0
0
0
26. New nonbuilding facilities, nec .........................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0'
27. Maintenance and repair construction ..............................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
28. Logging camps and logging conVactors .........................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
29. Sawmills and planing mills ................................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
30. Millwork and structural wood members, nec ..................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
31. Veneer and plywood ..........................................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
32. Wood containers and miscellaneous wood products ...................
749
840
1,010
1,281
1,358
1,515
33. Mobile homes .....................................................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
34. Prefabricated wood buildings ...........................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
35. Household furniture ...........................................................................
11,547
11,404
13,500
17,707
18,832
21,130
36. Partitions and fixtures ........................................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
37. Office and miscellaneous furniture and fixtures ............................
809
852
1,041
1,909
2,030
2,278
38. Glass and glass products .................................................................
1,267
1,001
1,205
1,647
1,761
1,971
39. Hydraulic cement ...............................................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
40. Concrete, gypsum, and plaster products ........................................
2
4
4
6
6
7
41. Stone, clay, and miscellaneous mineral products .........................
1,746
1,740
2,029
2,027
2,205
2,430
42. Blast furnaces and basic steel products ........................................
18
9
9
12
14
14
43. Iron and steel foundries ...............................................................:....
0
0
0
0
0
0
44. Primary aluminum ...............................................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
45. Primary nonferrous metals, except aluminum ................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
46. Miscellaneous primary and secondary metals ...............................
0
0
0
0
0
1
47. Copper rolling and drawing ...............................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
48. Aluminum rolling and drawing ..........................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
49. Nonferrous rolling and drawing, nec ...............................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
50. Nonferrous wire drawing and insulating ..........................................
12
12
15
22
24
27
Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
 Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/04/11 :CIA-RDP90-005308000802040001-2
B-2. Personal consumption expenditures by Industry, 1977, 1982, 1985, and projected 2000-Continued
(Millions of 1982 dollars)
Industry
1977
1982
1985
2000
Low
2000
Moderate
2000
High
51. Aluminum foundries ..........................................................................:
51
26
32
43
46
52
52. Nonferrous foundries, except aluminum ........:................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
53. Metal cans and shipping containers ................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
54. Cutlery, hand toots, and hardware ...................................................
2,331
1,936
2,357
2,503
2,783
3,088
55. Plumbing and nonelectric heating equipment ................................
426
414
..534
. 598
638
713
56. Fabricated structural metal products ...............................................
83
92
113
154
184
184
57. Screw machine products, bolts, rivets, etc .....................................
97
75
80
101
118
129
58. Forgings ...............................................................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
59. Automotive stampings .......:...............................................................
0
0
.. 0
.. 0
0
0
60. Stampings, except automotive .........................................................
998
968
1,170
1,359
1,445
1,621
61. Metal coating, engraving, and allied services .............................:..
0
0
0
0
0
0
82. Ordnance, except vehicles and missiles ........................................
853
1,028
1,287
2,193
2,548
2,798
83. Miscellaneous fabricated metal products .......................................
683
683
773
1,184
1,344
1,466
84. Engines and turbines .........................................................................
314
291
419
550
638
703
65. Farm and garden machinery ............................................................
' 155
204.
. ..249
:~. 488
519
582
68. Construction machinery .....................................................................
0
0
0.
0
0
0
67. Mining and oil field machinery ..........................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
68. Materials handling machinery and equipment ................................
0
0
... .....0
0
0
0
69. Metalworking machinery ....................................................................
433
323
... 395.
... 537
571
641
70. Special industry machinery ...............................................................
143
165..
,.........201 .
.. 274
291
327
71. General industrial machinery ............................................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
72. Electronic computing equipment ......................................................
0
1,000-
~= 4;488.
:: 25,696
27,328
30,683
73. Office and accounting machines .....................................................
448
641.
783?s
:~, 1,524
1,621
1,818
74. Refrigeration and service industry machinery ................................
561
551
~: 709'
~- 1,060
1,147
1,258
75. Miscellaneous nonelectrical machinery ...........................................
58
45.
...... S5
83
101
93
76. Electric distributing equipment .........................................................
70
54
.61
97
114
124
77. Electrical industrial apparatus ...........................................................
65
56
68.
93
99
111
78. Household appliances ......:................................................................
9,026
7,911
10,182
15,025
16,020
17,959
79. Electric lighting and wiring equipment .............................................
2,023
1,772
. 2,112 .
. 2,442
2,747
2,984
80. Electronic home entertainment equipment .....................................
8,384
9,377.
... 16;231:
28,548
30,605
33,973
81. Telephone and telegraph apparatus ...............................................
35
47.
.251.
847
901
1,011
82. Radio and TV communication equipment .......................................
765
829 ?
1,131
2,221
2,363
2,651
83. Electronic tubes ..:...............................................................................
90
17
15
14
15
17
84. Semiconductors and related devices ..............................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
85. Miscellaneous electronic components ............................................
444
1,046
.1,420
2,659
2,846
3,166
86. Storage batteries and engine electrical parts ..............:.................
1,821
1,596
1,973
. 2,453
2,964
2,798
87. X-ray and other electromedical apparatus .....................................
0
0
O
i 0
0
0
88. Electrical equipment and supplies, nec ..........................................
880
1,205
1,477
2,094
2,341
2,585
89. Motor vehicles and car bodies ................:........................................
64,979
51,929
..77,257
76,471
87,019
102,452
90. Motor vehicle parts and accessories ..............................................
1,437
2,052
2,678.
3,707
4,520
4,198
91. Truck and bus bodies; trailers, and motor homes ...:.....................
2,131
1,020
.. .. 1,502
1,712
1,948
2,293
92. Aircraft .................................................................................................
648
789.
-~~:`.?1;135
1,698
1,969
2,169
93. Aircraft and missile engines and equipment ..................................
0
0
0
0
0
0
94. Guided missiles and space vehicles ...............................................
0
0
0.,
. 0
0
0
95. Ship and boat building and repairing ..............................................
3,827
3,437
4,001..
~ 4,600
5,334
5,875
96. Railroad equipment ............................................................................
0
0
?0
0
0
0
97. Miscellaneous transportation equipment ........................................
3,973
3,240
. ? ~ 4,242
6,307
7,286
8,116
98. Engineering and scientific instruments ............................................
0
0.
0
0
0
0
99. Measuring and controlling devices ..................................................
75
61 .
.