USSR: UPGRADING THE PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY

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CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8
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June 1, 1988
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Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 25X1 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 Directorate of Secret Intelligence 25X1 USSR: Upgrading the Pharmaceutical Industry A Research Paper 0079996 SOV* 10033X88 SOVA*0313*88 0471-0471. FILE COPY/SOURCED COPY (A-2/A-1:0SWR CPAS/IMC/CONTROL BRANCH ROOM 7G07 HQS IND ADHOC REQUIREMENTS) . ? I?FWD:7 'NUMBER --S0169 1 w LM' ikYTAL NUMBER OF COPIES SISSEM DATE r TzPbQ COPIES iMCORD CENTER OB N' ? Secret so V 88-10033X June 1988 Copy 47 1 I_ Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 25X1 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 25X1 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 Directorate of Secret Intelligence 25X1 Reverse Blank USSR: Upgrading the Pharmaceutical Industry A Research Paper This paper was prepared by Soviet Analysis, with contributions from he Office of Scientific and Weapons Research the Office of Leadership Office of and Analysis. Comments and queries are welcome and may be directed to the Chief, Economic Performance Division, SOYA, Secret SOV 88-10033X June 1988 I. Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 Secret Summary Information available as of! April 1988 was used in this report. USSR: Upgrading the Pharmaceutical Industry Increased availability of pharmaceuticals and vaccines could substantially improve the health and morale of the Soviet people. Insufficient supplies of pharmaceuticals have resulted in increases in the infant and child death rate, poor nutrition, a high death rate from strokes and heart attacks, and extended recovery periods from illness. The Soviets report that each year the 3.5 million people absent from work because of illness cost the economy 12-20 billion rubles in lost production. The leadership has begun to recognize the economic cost of poor health care and the vital role that pharmaceuticals play in the prevention and treatment of illness. According to one Soviet medical official, "use of modern treatment methods including new pharmaceuticals could save 2-3 billion rubles paid for sick leave" over a five-year period. The pharmaceutical industry is a microcosm of Soviet industry, displaying many of the problems that the leadership is trying to address in restructur- ing the economy. Output of the pharmaceutical industry has grown rapidly, but the industry is plagued by shortages and erratic supplies of raw materials and a relatively low technological base. Like other Soviet industries producing consumer goods, it has had neither the capital nor the incentives needed for technological innovation. As a result, most of its enterprises are equipped with machinery and processing facilities that Western companies would consider obsolete, uneconomical, and unhygien- ic. Other deficiencies include excessively long research-to-production cy- cles, poor planning and management, an undisciplined work force, and inadequate quality control. Furthermore, pharmaceutical prices, which are set by the state, often are not high enough to compensate enterprises for the costs of modernizing. An ineffective distribution system compounds the effects of production problems. Although the number of pharmacies and pharmacy personnel has grown over the last 15 years, the system is hampered by shortages of pharmaceuticals and storage facilities, poor management and training, insufficient automation, lack of incentives, theft, and black-market activi- ties. And, because there is no organized mechanism for systematically providing information about drugs to physicians and the public, some patients do not receive available medications. 111 Secret soV 88-10033X June 1988 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 Secret Secret To improve supplies of pharmaceuticals to the Soviet consumer, Gorbachev has: ? Merged the Ministry of the Medical Industry with the Main Administra- tion of the Microbiological Industry and replaced ineffective leaders. ? Accelerated technological progress in medical and biomedical research and development. ? Improved labor discipline and cracked down on the black market. ? Set plans to triple investment allocations for the Ministry of the Medical and Microbiological Industry (MMMI)?which produces the bulk of the country's pharmaceuticals?in 1986-90. ? Expanded the network of pharmacies to improve distribution and increased the funds health-care institutions can spend for medications. Ongoing changes will marginally improve availability of medicines in the next five years, but sufficient amounts of many types of pharmaceutical products will still be lacking, especially in rural areas. Unless the problem becomes more important in the eyes of the populace, leadership attention will remain focused on those sectors critical to industrial modernization and on those that will have an impact on popular perceptions of improve- ments in living standards. If Moscow does not follow through with the resources and incentives to signal a real change in priority, the Soviet consumer will continue to be shortchanged in supplies of new antibiotics, vitamins, and anticancer and cardiovascular drugs. Moscow could alleviate domestic shortages of medicines by increasing imports. Most of any increase will come from East European countries? the major suppliers today?under intra-CEMA product exchanges, but these countries cannot offer the scale of support needed. Imports of medicines and equipment from the West are also likely to increase, but hard currency constraints probably will limit purchases to high-priority commodities. The Soviets generally purchase from the West only sophisti- cated medicines not available domestically or from CEMA countries. These are usually bought in relatively small quantities for use in special medical facilities or for laboratory analysis and clinical trials in domestic drug programs. iv Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 Secret Opportunities exist for Western sales of production licenses and plants, particularly in the biotechnology area, and the Soviets also are interested in joint ventures with Western firms. They are currently negotiating with US, French, and Japanese companies for jointly operated pharmaceutical plants in the USSR. In addition, Moscow will continue to seek access to Western research programs, chemical and microbiological products, and technology through scientific-technological cooperation agreements with Western companies. This approach, however, faces long leadtimes and an uncertain future. Meanwhile, a failure to substantially increase the availability of pharma- ceuticals?from either domestic or foreign sources?will leave Soviet health care more on a par with that in the Third World than that in the de- veloped West. At present, the Soviet populace seems inured to this situation, but morale could be seriously affected if health problems increase or the labor force becomes more knowledgeable about the relative state of Soviet health care. Reverse Blank V Secret Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 ecret 25X1 Contents Page Summary 111 Scope Note ix The Impact of Insufficient Pharmaceutical Supply 1 Performance of the Industry 2 Production Problems 3 Problems of Technological Innovation 4 Problems in Supplying Pharmaceuticals 5 Drug Shortages?Real and Imaginary 5 Infrastructure and Personnel Problems 6 Information Deficiencies 8 Imports of Pharmaceuticals 8 Upgrading Production and Improving Supply 9 Measures To Improve Pharmaceutical Supplies 10 Getting Help From Abroad 12 Viability of the Program 13 Reverse Blank vii Secret Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 Secret Scope Note This study examines problems of pharmaceutical production and distribu- tion, steps that have been taken to improve supplies, and prospects for success. It addresses the role pharmaceuticals play in improving the health of the labor force, but does not address other aspects of the Soviet health- care system, such as the adequacy of medical facilities, services provided by physicians and other health-care personnel, and the supply of medical equipment and commodities other than medicines and vaccines. 25X1 25X1 25X1 , Reverse Blank ix Secret Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 USSR: Upgrading the Pharmaceutical Industry The Impact of Insufficient Pharmaceutical Supply The USSR suffers from widespread shortages of pharmaceuticals and vaccines. According to a recent Izvestiya article, only 80 percent of the population's requirements for medicines are being satisfied and only 60 percent of needs for cardiovascular prepara- tions are met) Major deficiencies include: ? The insufficient quantity and poor quality of vac- cines for infectious diseases.2 ? Shortages of vitamin supplements, particularly vita- mins B, C, and D. ? Insufficient drugs to treat cancer and cardiovascu- lar diseases. ? Shortages of new antibiotics to treat infections as bacteria become more resistant to existing medications. ? Lack of sufficient antihypertensive medications. ? Sporadic availabilit of medications to treat chronic diseases. As a result, the health of the Soviet populace has been jeopardized.'According to data of the Ministry of Health, 3.5 million people are absent from work each year because of claimed illness, resulting in produc- tion losses of 12-20 billion rubles.3 Inadequate sup- plies of pharmaceuticals and vaccines manifest them- selves in several ways: ? The incidence of largely preventable infectious dis- eases remains relatively high (see table 1). some 30 to 50 such staples of modern medical treatment as Tagamet for ulcer disease, Sinemet for Parkinsonism, beta blockers and calcium channel blockers for angina and hypertension, and antihistamine-deconges- tant preparations for the relief of common cold symptons are extremely hard to obtain. Although vaccines are not technically classed as pharmaceuticals, they have been included in our discussion as preparations produced 3 to prevent disease.________ A Soviet medical official claimed that annual payments for sick leave exceed 7 billion rubles and that use of modern treatment methods including new pharmaceuticals could reduce the duration of illnesses and save 2-3 billion rubles over a five-year period. 1 25X1 percent of children in their first year of life are not innoculated against diphtheria. The incidence of measles in the USSR is on a par with that of Brazil. A Western study reports that the effectiveness of Soviet-made vaccines is very low compared with Western products, particularly those against influ- enza, measles, mumps, and typhoid. ? The lack of proper nutrition in the Soviet diet and shortages of vitamin supplements have resulted in widespread vitamin deficiences. An article in Izves- tiya in December 1985 reported that the average citizen is getting only 60 to 70 percent of the vitamins needed for proper nutrition. The lack of vitamin supplements affects most severely mothers who are breast-feeding, infants, and other vulnera- ble groups. ? Infant and child death rates remain high. Surgery on newborns is more precarious than need be be- cause of a lack of good antibiotics. Childhood diseases are frequently fatal because of shortages of medications and vaccines, particularly in rural areas and small towns. 25X1 25X1 ? Hospital death rates are high. Chronic illnesses are rarely treated successfully because of the sporadic availability of medications; thus, recovery periods are prolonged. Staphylococcus infections are ram- pant in hospitals because of the lack of good antibiotics. 25X1 25X1 ? Death rates from strokes and heart attacks are high. Very few antihypertensive drugs are available to the majority of the population. ? A widespread black market in prescription drugs has evolved because of chronic shortages of medi- cines and the low wages of pharmacy and medical personnel (see inset). Secret 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 secret Table 1 Incidence of Selected Infectious Diseases Cases per 100,000 persons 1960 1970 1980 1985 1986 Typhoid/paratyphoid USSR 22 9 6 6 5 United States 0.45 0.17 0.22 0.16 NA Scarlet fever USSR 313 194 87 100 128 United States 174 211 162 NA NA Diphtheria USSR 24.8 0.45 0.13 0.55 0.41 United States 0.5 0.21 0.001 0.001 NA Whooping cough USSR 259 16 5 19.4 6.3 United States 8 2 0.7 1.4 NA Tetanus USSR 1.1 0.27 0.11 0.10 0.09 United States 0.2 0.07 0.04 0.03 NA Acute poliomyelitis USSR 3.3 0.11 0.06 0.05 0.06 United States 1.8 0.02 0.01 0.002 NA Measles USSR 972 194 134 98 59 United States 244 23 6 NA , Including streptococcal sore throat. Source: Narodnoye khozyaystvo SSSR za 70 let and Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1987. Performance of the Industry The pharmaceutical industry is a microcosm of prob- lems pervading Soviet industry as a whole and reflects all of the symptoms that the leadership is trying to alleviate in its restructuring program. Output of the industry has increased substantially since 1970, but production still lags behind the growing requirements of the health service, according to the former head of the Ministry of Health's Main Pharmaceutical Administration (GAPU), Mikhail Klyuyev. Moreover, Secret overall growth rates have been falling in recent years (see table 2).? 'The Ministry of the Medical and Microbiological Industry ac- counts for 90 percent of domestic output of medicines and medical equipment. GAPU controls over 80 factories that use simple technologies to produce medicines from plants. Important raw materials and other medically related commodities such as glucose, menthol, and endocrine preparations are produced by enterprises of the Ministries of Light Industry; the Chemical Industry; the Petroleum Refining and Petrochemical Industry; the Construction Materials Industry; the Timber, Pulp and Paper, and Wood Processing Industry; and the State Agroindustrial Committee. 2 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451 R000300310001-8 Secret Black-Market Activities 20 percent of the narcotics used by drug abusers in the USSR come from medical institutions. Drug dealers also obtain narcot- ics from medical supplies for geological teams goinz to remote areas and from civil defense kits.a A September 1986 article in Kommunist Tadzhikis- tana reported that the republic's pharmacy system is inundated with false inventory reports, embezzle- ment, and forgery. The author noted that at the central pharmaceutical warehouse in Dushanbe a shortage of 7,000 rubles' worth of drugs was covered up by an accountant to show only a 274-ruble shortage. These drugs undoubtedly found their way onto the black market. In Uzbekistan, special re- serves of drugs that are maintained for infants and war veterans ended up in the possession of various pharmacy managers. Inspectors who checked several hundred prescriptions for drugs in very short supply found that almost one-half were forged. a Narcotics are often stolen with the cooperation of storekeepers. According to a Soviet emigre, ampules in the civil defense kits containing promedolum, a strong narcotic, are replaced with ones containing water or analgin, a mild painkiller. Storekeepers are paid 1.5 to 2 rubles per ampule; promedolum ampules can fetch 10 rubles on the black market Some drugs are only available from relatives or friends abroad or on the black market, where the supply is sporadic and the price high. Patients are often encouraged by their physicians to obtain phar- maceuticals that are not available in the USSR from abroad through friends and relatives. Certain drugs 25X1 used in chemotherapy can cost up to 10 times the official price on the black market. Other medications are available under the counter?for a price?at pharmacies. 25X1 25X1 25X1 According to a Soviet emigre, a black market even exists inside hospitals. Patients often have to pay extra for anesthetics and certain medications that are nominally free under the Soviet health system. Diver- sion of pharmaceuticals intended for patients in hospitals is illustrated by a May 1987 article in Pravda vostoka that describes a situation at the Ilyichevsk Central Rayon Hospital in Uzbekistan where one-half of the obstetrical and gynecologic-al patients did not receive many of the drugs prescribed by their physicians. Inspectors found that the head nurse had 107 of these medicines available, but only 20 were being used routinely. Similar situations have been uncovered at other Soviet hospitals. Production Problems The most important problems are shortages and errat- ic supplies of raw materials and the low technological levels of factories. Inadequate supplies of raw materi- als from other ministries, particularly the Ministry of the Chemical Industry, have hindered production. Moreover, the Soviets have not adequately developed small-tonnage and high-purity chemicals such as re- agents, which are critical to pharmaceutical produc- tion. The pharmaceutical industry, like others producing consumer goods, traditionally has had a low priority for resources and has not used its investment funds 3 efficiently.' As a result, many of the industry's enter- prises have machinery, equipment, and facilities that are obsolete and uneconomical. Difficulties in obtain- ing suitable replacement machinery and equipment from other ministries result in low-quality output, above-norm repair expenses, and high operating costs. 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Capital investment allocated for the medical industry's develop- ment in 1981-85 was 1.3 times greater than that in the previous five-year period, and more than 80 new plants started up. However, only 78 percent of capital investment allocated for 1985 was used. Secret Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 Secret Table 2 USSR: Growth of Medical Industry Output Average annual percent 1971-75 1976-80 1981-85' Total 11.6 9.6 7.0 Of which: Prepared medicines b 8.7 8.5 6.7 Antibiotics and organic preparations 11.7 12.6 9.0 Vitamins 19.8 9.9 6.6 Synthetic medical substances 8.0 8.1 7.1 . Calculated on the basis of planned 1985 output. b Including processed medicinal plants. Source: Christopher Davis, "Developments in the Health Sector of the Soviet Economy, 1970-90," in Gorbachev's Economic Plans, study papers of the Joint Economic Committee, Congress of the United States, Washington, 1987. only 35 percent of the demand for equipment needed to manufacture medicines is currently being satisfied. Moreover, the equipment that is available is often of poor quality The quality of output also is affected by poor hygienic conditions, below-standard raw materials, and pres- sure to fulfill ambitious production targets. According to a former Soviet physician, doctors are often wary of using domestically produced injectable penicillin and streptomycin because of poor quality contro1.6 Problems of Technological Innovation In spite of Soviet claims of substantial development of new medicines, Soviet biomedical research and devel- opment remains characterized by low technological 'Because of the large number of visible crystals in domestically manufactured penicillin solutions and the poor quality of antibiotics in general, Soviet physicians prefer higher quality antibiotics from Poland. Secret levels, poor-quality research materials, rigid hierar- chies in scientific institutions, and isolation from world developments. A July 1986 article in Meditsins- kaya gazeta assessed the situation: Great claims are made by scientific-research and design institutes. But up to now they still do not satisfy the demands for new economic and effective technologies, they know poorly the problems of production, and the quality of their contributions lags behind international stan- dards. Research and development institutions themselves are also partly to blame for sluggish technological innova- tion. They often fail to recognize what is new, engage in irrelevant projects, and frequently cannot produce results after spending excessive amounts. It was noted at the 27th CPSU Congress that the Scientific- Research Institute for Biological Testing had not produced a single medical preparation, after having spent 50 million rubles during a 12-year period. Another example, according to the head of MMMI, is the All-Union Scientific-Research Institute of Bio- technology, which "in all of the years of its existence, has so far failed to come up with a single significant development that has broad application in the indus- try." As with many other civilian industries, the gap be- tween research and production presents another orga- nizational obstacle to innovation. Of the 30 to 35 pharmaceutical products introduced each year, less than one-third are original Soviet formulations. This may be explained in part by the difficulties encoun- tered in getting a Soviet pharmaceutical into produc- tion. It takes an average of eight to 12 years in the USSR to create a new pharmaceutical preparation, and research institutes have no real leverage, or incentive, to press factories to put the results of this research into production. An article in Izvestiya in 4 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 25X1 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 Secret 1985 cited the example of a sorely needed drug for the treatment of alcoholism that was developed over a decade ago. After impressive initial and clinical trials, the drug was recommended for production. The Ka- zan' Chemical Technology Institute developed and documented a simple, inexpensive method of produc- tion. The task of making the drug was presented to the Ministry of the Chemical Industry, which had the facilities for the production of trial batches, but after several years none of the drug had been produced. According to the head of the pharmacology faculty at Kazan', a number of other products have had a similar fate. Even in cases where institutes and enter- prises have been linked and experimental factories have been established to expedite production of lab- oratory discoveries, the industrial enterprises fre- quently have tasked those facilities to mass-produce existing goods in short supply rather than to manufac- ture new products. Another problem is the dispersion of biomedical re- search and development facilities throughout the So- viet bureaucracy. Drug development involves basic research, applied research, prototype development, laboratory testing, animal testing, clinical trials, reg- istration, trial production, quality control testing, and mass production. The entire development process may involve the Academy of Sciences, the Academy of Medical Sciences, the Ministry of Health, MMMI, the State Committee for Science and Technology, and various other ministries and organizations that pro- duce needed equipment and chemicals. Coordinating such operations is extremely difficult; as a result, only a small share of laboratory discoveries ends up as medicines for the public.' The main reason that the pharmaceutical industry has been slow to innovate is the absence of effective incentives. Producers face no effective domestic com- petition, operate in a shortage environment, are pro- tected from foreign competition, and are judged on the basis of fulfillment of quantitative plans rather than consumer satisfaction. As a result, managers ' Minister of Health Yevgeniy Chazov noted in a recent speech that, of the 373 preparations approved for clinical use during 1981- 85, only 15 to 20 are widely used. 5 prefer to stick to old methods and products rather than risk introducing new technology. A December 1985 Soviet press article commented: The reality is that for the enterprise it is more profitable to gradually increase its indicators by traditional "debugged" processes than to get involved with new technology or new prepara- tions. Innovation demands additional invest- ment, the acquisition of equipment, reconstruc- tion of shops or sections, an increase in energy expenditure and much more, which will pay off not tomorrow but in the future. This frightens many directors, all the more because with the existing system of planning and rewards one can be in the vanguard without introduction of new processes or products. Furthermore, pharmaceutical prices, which are set by 25X1 the state, often are not high enough to compensate enterprises for the costs of modernizing, particularly under the new conditions of self-financing and "full economic accountability." 25X1 Problems in Supplying Pharmaceuticals Despite a relative abundance of pharmacies and phar- macists, the system cannot provide an adequate sup- ply of medicines to the population (see inset "The Soviet Pharmacy System"). It experiences chronic difficulties in obtaining sufficient goods from both the domestic medical industry and foreign trade organiza- tions. Planning errors and poor organization exacer- bate the situation. Drug Shortages?Real and Imaginary. Nationwide, new medications are unavailable from pharmacies or are in such short supply as to make them ineffective in treating chronic illness. Under conditions of limited supply, it is extremely important to get the right medicines to patients promptly. Drugs suffer from the same bottlenecks in distribution as other industrial products, but, in addition, GAPU's errors in estimat- ing drug needs cause both shortages and large stocks of medicines whose expiration dates pass, rendering Secret Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 Secret The Soviet Pharmacy System The Ministry of Health controls most pharmacies through GAPU, which operates on a self-financing basis designed to provide profits from sales. Several other ministries are also involved in providing phar- maceuticals. The Ministry of Railways, for example, manages its own system of over 1,000 pharmacies. The Ministry of Defense also maintains an indepen- dent pharmaceutical system. From 1971-85 the number of pharmacies increased by nearly 30 percent, to 29,516. During the same period the number of pharmacists increased by 62 percent, to 271,300, compared with 172,000 in the United States in 1985. According to a Western study, sales of medicines by the pharmacy network grew 150 percent between 1970 and 1985 to reach nearly 3.5 billion rubles. Sales to medical facilites such as hospitals and clinics are at wholesale prices, by written order only, and are financed by the state. Medicines adminis- tered to patients on the premises are provided free of charge. Soviet consumers can also buy pharmaceuti- cal products directly from pharmacies. Medicines are given free to infants under one year of age, war invalids, and those suffering from specific illnesses. In the USSR, retail prices are relatively low, but the patient very often is unable to obtain necessary prescription and nonprescription drugs. In the United States, in contrast, the pharmaceutical system is relatively expensive at the point of purchase but efficient in supplying US patients and hospitals with precisely what is prescribed when it is needed. them useless. As an example of inefficiency, GAPU has also been criticized for importing medicines that are no more effective than domestic drugs. Widespread shortages of pharmaceuticals stem from a variety of causes other than production problems. These include lack of funds to maintain adequate Secret Inventories, poor stock control, regional supply imbal- ances, improper use, and hoarding (see inset "Drug Shortages: Guaranteeing Inadequate Health Care"). Pharmacies with adequate stock on their shelves, for example, may not have the funds to buy replacements until their existing stock is sold. Patients often cannot obtain medicines that are in the pharmacy warehouse and sometimes in the pharmacy itself because of negligent pharmacy workers. Even in hospitals, pa- tients frequently do not receive the full course of drug treatment. As a result, a patient's family often has to purchase drugs on its own because of inadequate supplies in hospital pharmacies. Many of the most effective drugs are available only to VIPs.' In addition, private hoarding, encouraged by temporary availability and the low prices of certain domestically produced drugs, is widespread. Consum- ers as well as pharmacies needlessly stockpile medi- cines to insure against future shortages. Exacerbating these supply problems is the frequent use of unneces- sary or nonprescribed drugs for illnesses that should be treated with other drugs or with nondrug therapy. Infrastructure and Personnel Problems. Although seemingly adequate on a national basis, the network of pharmacies is still insufficient in Armenia, Azer- baijan, Tajikistan, Kirgizia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenia, the Moldavian SSR, and in a number of oblasts and rayons of the RSFSR. According to a September 1986 article in Kommunist Tadzhikistana, for exam- ple, the national ratio of pharmacies to population is nearly twice that of Tajikistan. Pharmacy personnel also are unevenly distributed. For example, the num- ber of pharmacists and pharmaceutical technicians per capita in many oblasts in Central Asia and Kazakhstan is only 50 to 75 percent of the national certain Western pharma- ceuticals such as lekoverin and prednisone are available in the USSR only for inpatient treatment of VIPs. These drugs were never fotind in pharmacies, and physicians were not allowed to prescribe them. The Ministry of Internal Affairs and the KGB reportedly routinely stockpile Western pharmaceuticals at the expense of ordinary Soviet citizens. 6 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 Secret Drug Shortages: Guaranteeing Inadequate Health Care Stories abound about Soviet hospitals and clinics unable to supply a full course of drug treatment, dentists working without adequate supplies of anes- thetics, and chronically sick people living month to month, never sure whether their prescriptions can be refilled. The following examples are typical of the widespread problems in pharmaceutical supply: a pamphlet issued by the Pharmaceutical Adminis- tration of Novosibirsk. Of 216 primary medications listed for specific illnesses, only 23 were actually available to practicing physicians. Moreover, secondary and tertiary alternatives on the list were considerably different in pharmacological properties from their counter- parts. Furthermore, only one-half of the 216 drugs were even produced domestically. ? A 1986 article in Sovetskaya Rossiya reported that at the central pharmacy in Khabarovsk?which has a reputation for being well supplied?it was impos- sible to obtain several ordinary drugs such as analgin or nitroglycerin. In Kalinin Oblast planned supplies of insulin covered only one-half of the known cases of diabetes in the region. ? An article in Pravda vostoka in May 1987 com- plained that burn patients in Samarkand Oblast Hospital were not treated with 14 needed drugs that were available in the hospital pharmacy. Although the pharmacy at Khavast Central Rayon Hospital 25X1 was supplied with a dozen effective antihypertensive agents, only Epsom salts, which is ineffective, was routinely prescribed. 25X1 ? According to a Soviet emigre, at City Hospital No. 51 in Moscow, only the very basic medicines were routinely available. Antibiotics, narcotics, and ef- fective analgesics were always in short supply. A Soviet acquaintance of a US Embassy official recently told him that, after an appendectomy in a Soviet hospital, her daughter's incision had to be reopened three times because of infection. This was done without anesthesia?a frequent occurrence? because the hospital rewarded doctors and nurses for saving antibiotics and painkillers. In most hos- pitals, abortions often are performed without effec- tive anesthesia. average. The shortage of these specialists lowers the quality of drug services and impedes improved drug supply to the public. In spite of a 60-percent increase in the area of pharmaceutical warehouses in 1976-84, storage facili- ties are still inadequate throughout the country, con- tributing to pharmaceutical shortages and distribution problems. For example, in Tajikistan only 40 percent of the republic's pharmacies have warehouses, and many do not have adequate refrigeration. The lack of refrigeration in some warehouses, where temperatures reach 40? C (104? F) or more in summer, results in deterioriation of pharmaceutical products. 7 25X1 25X1 25X1 The complexity of modern diagnostic and treatment methods demands better training of pharmaceutical specialists. University pharmaceutical science pro- 25X1 grams were criticized in a report at the June 1985 plenary meeting of the CPSU as being generally obsolete. The report claimed that graduates of phar- maceutical schools are not familiar with the most recently developed medications that are available. To increase the number of trained pharmacists, pharmacy departments have been opened at medical institutes in Kirgizia, Tajikistan, Turkmenia, and in a number of cities in the RSFSR. 25X1 Secret Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 25X1 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 Secret Low average wages and the lack of adequate wage differentials for pharmacy personnel have had an adverse effect on the quality and quantity of labor supply and on work performance.' To improve the efficiency of pharmaceutical workers, the former head of GAPU suggested in mid-1986 that they be given material incentives commensurate with their personal contribution.'? He also recommended that the coun- try's pharmacies incorporate the brigade form of labor, which is designed to improve labor productivity by group pressure and allocation of wages according to each worker's contribution. Information Deficiencies. Improvement of drug sup- plies also depends on an effective system of pharma- ceutical information. The lack of a mechanism for systematically providing information about drugs to physicians and the public has led to a situation where some patients do not receive available medications. Current therapeutic practice does not take full advan- tage of all the drugs available in the pharmacy network, and the absence of advertising means that Soviet doctors are often unaware of what medicines are available. Sometimes doctors prescribe drugs that have long since been withdrawn from the market, while newer drugs go unused. Imports of Pharmaceuticals The Soviets have not traditionally relied on foreign pharmaceutical technology and products from areas other than Eastern Europe, because of a reluctance to become dependent on the West and the low priority of the public health sector for hard currency expendi- tures. Since 1980, however, annual imports of phar- maceuticals have more than doubled, suggesting an increase in the priority of these commodities. In 1986 'Pharmacists normally are paid 110 to 140 rubles ?er month. The average wage of Soviet workers is 196 rubles. In October 1986 the Soviets adopted a decree "On Raising the Wage Payments of Public Health and Social Security Employees," which included a provision to raise the salaries of pharmaceutical chemists and other pharmaceutical personnel. The new wage payment conditions are to be introduced in stages in 1986-91. In a recent television interview, economic adviser Abel Aganbegyan noted that "health service workers" have received a 30-percent pay increase. We do not know whether this applies to pharmaceutical workers. Secret the Soviets imported 1.2 billion rubles' worth of pharmaceuticals, 93 percent from East European countries (see table 3). India supplied nearly 4 percent, while imports from hard currency countries amounted to only 1.4 percent." The USSR obtains pharmaceuticals from CEMA countries primarily through bilateral exchanges of products. As a general rule, the USSR specializes in the production of bulk pharmaceuticals, while East European countries produce small-tonnage, higher quality products. Poland, the major exporter of medi- cines to the USSR in 1986, supplied 33 percent of total Soviet pharmaceutical imports. Hungary? which produces several drugs equivalent to those made in the West?ranked second as a source of imported pharmaceuticals, providing 22 percent. The Soviets also obtain Western drugs from Yugoslavia, which has licensing agreements with Western coun- tries. The Soviets generally purchase from the West only sophisticated medicines not available domestically or from CEMA countries. These are usually bought in relatively small quantities for use in special medical facilities or for laboratory analysis and clinical trials in domestic drug programs. Imports include vitamins, hormones, antibiotics, insulin, and anticancer drugs. Finland supplied nearly 2 percent of imported phar- maceuticals in 1986, while France was the leading hard currency exporter. Austria, Switzerland and West Germany supplied smaller quantities.'2 "Soviet imports of Western pharmaceutical technology and equip- ment have been minimal. The Soviets have purchased three facili- ties for the manufacture of penicillin- and cephalosporin-based antibiotics from Italian and Swiss firms in recent years, but equipment purchases have generally involved packaging and tablet- and capsule-manufacturing lines, rather than technology for drug production. 8 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 Secret Table 3 USSR: Foreign Trade in Pharmaceuticals Million rubles Imports Exports 1970 1980 1986 1970 1980 1986 Total 166.2 542.7 1,232.0 31.8 81.4 102.6 Communist countries 156.3 489.5 1,148.6 25.0 65.4 87.2 Eastern Europe a 156.3 489.5 1,139.5 18.3 51.9 64.4 Other 0 0 9.1 6.7 13.5 22.8 Non-Communist countries 9.9 53.2 83.4 6.8 16.0 15.4 Hard currency 6.5 33.0 17.4 5.7 14.7 14.7 Soft currency 3.4 20.2 66.0 1.1 1.3 0.7 Of which: Finland 19.7 0 0 0.2 India 3.4 20.2 46.3 0.4 0.8 0.3 a Eastern Europe includes Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Yugoslavia. Source: Vneshnyaya torgovla SSSR, various years. The Soviets are using science and technology agree- ments as another means to obtain Western pharma- ceutical technology. Although there is often a cooper- ative element to these agreements and a two-way flow of information, they are part of a planned Soviet technology acquisition effort, and generally the heavi- est flow of information is from the West to the USSR. In 1985 the Soviets concluded such an agreement with a US pharmaceutical company for the develop- ment and possible licensing of anticancer, anti-infec- tious, and cardiovascular drugs." Moscow also has several cooperative agreements with other countries. For example, a 1987 joint research agreement with the Italian firm Pressindustria is designed to develop new antibiotics, Another Soviet- Italian cooperation agreement signed in 1986 provides for joint research in developing new drugs and for exchanges of information and technical personnel. In ' This agreement is a renewal of one that expired in the 1970s under which two Soviet anticancer drugs were evaluated for possible licensing in the United States. Clinical trials, however, failed to duplicate Soviet results, and the drugs were never marketed. 9 25X1 mid-1987 the USSR and India signed a long-term agreement that includes joint research, development, and production of vaccines for hepatitis and polio and development of immunodiagnostics and antibiotics. 25X1 Upgrading Production and Improving Supply There is nothing more valuable to each person and to society as a whole than good 25X1 health. . . . It is essential to satisfy as quickly as possible the public's need for high-quality ther- apeutic-preventative and medicinal assistance in all parts of our country. Considerable funds will, of course, be required, and we shall have to 25X1 find them. General Secretary Gorbachev At the 27th CPSU Congress, February 1986 Secret Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 Secret Measures To Improve Pharmaceutical Supplies The Soviet leadership has taken a number of steps to improve the technological base of the industry and increase supplies of pharmaceuticals.' Policies adopt- ed under Gorbachev include those designed to restruc- ture management, improve the quality of products, encourage technological progress, streamline foreign trade, and foster cooperation among CEMA countries:'s ? Gorbachev's openness campaign has resulted in a substantial increase in the publication of articles critical of all aspects of the health system including the supply of pharmaceuticals.'6 ? In November 1985 the Ministry of the Medical and Microbiological Industry was created by amalgam- ating the Ministry of the Medical Industry and the Main Administration of the Microbiological Indus- try (see figure). The merger of the medical ministry , with the more technologically advanced microbio- logical industry was designed to facilitate the devel- opment of more advanced medicines. ? The appointment of Valeriy Bykov in December 1985 to head up the new MMMI highlighted a series of management shifts (see inset).'7 ? A Scientific-Technical Council within the MMMI has been created to develop a unified technology policy in the industry. The council will also play a major role in managing contacts with Western companies for licensing deals, sales of technology, joint ventures, and other forms of cooperation. According to estimates of the Ministry of Health, demand for the most important categories of pharmaceuticals will double by 1990, and by 1995 it will be two and one-half times that of 1985. The state acceptance system, established in January 1987 to upgrade industrial product quality through the use of independent inspectors, may be in force at some pharmaceutical plants, but we cannot confirm this. '6 An article in Meditsins aya gazeta in December 1986, for example, was openly critical of problems in the MMMI, such as severe shortages of raw materials and high-quality machinery "Several deputy ministers were removed in the ministerial reorga- nization. By early 1987, the head of the Main Administration for the Introduction of New Drugs and Medical Equipment, the chief of the Planning-Finance Administration of the Ministry of Health, and the health minister himself had been fired. The head of GAPU was retired in disgrace for the poor performance of the pharmacy system. Secret Valeriy Alekseyevich Bykov Minister of the Medical and Microbiological Industry An experienced microbiologist, Bykov began his in- dustrial career at the Kirishi Biochemical Plant in Leningrad Oblast in the 1960s. He participated in the plant's planning and construction and also served as its director during 1971-76. In 1976 he became first secretary of the Kirishi city party committee, and in 1979 he moved to Moscow as head of the microbiolo- gy section of the Central Committee's Chemical Industry Department. In July 1985, five months before assuming his current post, he became chief of the General Bureau of the Microbiological Industry. In 1987, his close association with the Kirishi plant? which had by then been identified as a source of toxic pollutants?made him the target of protests during which the local populace labeled any illness resulting from the toxic leakage as "Bykov 'S disease." Bykov holds a candidate of technical sciences degree. He is 49. 10 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 Secret Structure of the Medical and Microbiological Industry Valeriy Bykov, Minister Collegium of the Ministry First Deputy Ministers A. G. Sorokin Lev Telegin Deputy Ministers Nikolay Danilin Yu. T. Kalinin V. Ye. Matveyev Yuriy Shevyakov M. M. Sobolev V. F. Romanenko Administrations Cadres and educational institutions Equipping and outfitting Sales of medical products Production Chief mechanic and chief power engineers Design and capital construction Material and technical supply Finance Accounting, bookkeeping, and financial control Foreign relations Labor organization, wages, and worker cadres Technical Economic planning Economic Production Associations Medical glass and plastics Supply of medical and microbiological output abroad Medicinal plants procurement and processing Medical industry products export Antibiotics, blood substitutes, and organic preparations Microbiological substances Synthetic medical substances Medical technology Prepared medical substances manufacturing ? Vitamin manufacturing Medical technical devices manufacturing Medical instrument building 11 Secret Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 25X1 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 ? Many institutes of the MMMI have been incorpo- rated into scientific-production associations in the hope of shortening the time required for the intro- duction of newly discovered medicines. ? Investment for modernizing existing pharmaceutical plants and constructing new facilities?particularly those for producing biotechnological products?in 1986-90 is three times that of the previous five-year plan. ? A campaign to tighten labor discipline to boost productivity and reduce absenteeism has been cou- pled with an anticorruption campaign against medi- cal and pharmacy personnel who engage in black- market activities. ? The general foreign trade reform of January 1987 allowed MMMI to conduct trade directly with foreign firms. Medeksport, the organization respon- sible for trade in pharmaceuticals, was subsequently transferred to MMMI." ? Moscow is pushing for greater scientific and techni- cal cooperation with CEMA countries, particularly in expanding output of interferon, insulin, and growth hormones and in developing materials for research in genetic engineering. In August 1987 a resolution on priority measures to improve public health services in 1988-90 was adopt- ed by the Council of Ministers. It called for increased spending on food, medicines, and bandages for hospi- tals, and expanded eligibility for free and reduced-fee medicines. The Ministry of Finance was instructed to spend an additional 5.4 billion rubles to implement the resolution's goals. In November the CPSU Central Committee and the Council of Ministers "This change is designed to provide the ministry with the adminis- trative expertise necessary to conduct foreign transactions. The new arrangement allows the ministry to retain a large share of any hard currency its enterprises earn. These funds can be used to finance imports of technology and products: MMMI also has increased rights to engage in scientific-technical cooperation and establish joint ventures with Western firms. Secret announced a major new program for restructuring the health-care system during 1988-2000. Provisions that are likely to affect the supply of pharmaceuticals include: ? Increasing the output of "modern medications" to completely satisfy needs with Soviet-made products by 1993. ? Raising the quality of pharmaceutical products to world standards. ? Doubling the volume of sales of medicines and medical articles by 1995. ? Reducing production of ineffective drugs, using the resources released to produce new medicines. ? Ensuring an equitable distribution of medicines to various regions of the country. ? Expanding the network of pharmacies by 2,000 and providing the necessary material resources. ? Increasing the money institutions can spend on medications by 80 to 120 percent for hospitals and 100 to 200 percent for polyclinics. Getting Help From Abroad The USSR could alleviate domestic shortages of medicines by increasing imports. Moscow is pressing for increased supplies of pharmaceuticals from East- ern Europe. For example, according to the Soviet press, Soviet-Yugoslav pharmaceutical trade is sched- uled to double in 1986-90, and the two countries also will exchange technology for the production of new medical preparations. Moscow is also interested in joint ventures with Western firms in the pharmaceutical area.l 12 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 secret Moscow is also looking to the West for help in boosting its capabilities in biotechnology, one of five key technologies that Gorbachev has targeted for improvement.'9 Advances in biotechnology will not do much to alleviate the problems in supplying pharma- ceuticals. In fact, Moscow's interest in biotechnology may lie more in its agricultural and military applica- tions than in its medical ones (see inset). The Soviets are seriously committed to boosting their biotechnology capabilities?including the allocation of scarce hard currency?and recently hosted an international exhibition of microbiological technology and equipment. In 1987 an Austrian-led consortium won a $60 million contract to build research and production facilities at the Shemyakin Biotechnology Institute in Moscow. Laboratories and pilot plants will produce animal and plant growth regulators, peptides, chemical reagents, pure solvents, mono- clonal antibodies, proteins, and polymers. Many of these products have valuable diagnostic and therapeu- tic applications.20 Last year an Italian firm won a $23.5 million contract to construct a biotechnology research and production facility at Ufa. Other biotechnology projects un- der negotiation involve complexes at Taroussa and another one at Ufa. All of these new facilities will be able to produce a number of products used in the medical, pharmaceutical, agricultural, veterinary, and energy sectors of the economy, as well as provide the Soviets with the potential capability to produce bio- logical warfare agents. '9 The others are nuclear energy, advanced materials, microelec- tronics and computers, and machine automation. " Monoclonal antibodies can provide better diagnostic agents for human immunodeficiency virus?which causes AIDS?and more effective therapeutic products, particularly anticancer agents. Pro- teins could include such important products as human growth hormone, insulin, interferon, and hepatitis-B vaccine. 13 25X1 Viability of the Program The steps that the Soviet leadership has taken proba- bly will provide some improvement in the production and distribution of medicines. But shortages of many types of medicines will still occur, especially in rural areas where, despite plans to increase availability, progress will be slow. Moscow needs to reduce obstacles that will prevent effective implementation of some of these measures. Foot-dragging and resistance, for example, have char- acterized ministerial reaction to the decentralization of some production decisions. Moreover, enterprises cannot effectively influence the quality of their output unless they are able to choose their own suppliers. The gradual introduction of a new wholesale trade system this year may help, but, since most pharmaceutical products are likely to fall under the classification of state orders, plant managers may still be faced with the same unreliable suppliers.2' The substantial increase planned for investment in the MMMI certainly indicates an intent to improve phar- maceutical supplies, but followthrough will prove difficult given the demands on investment resources elsewhere in the economy. Meeting the industry's needs for new equipment, better materials, and prop- erly trained workers from domestic resources alone will be particularly difficult. The machine-building ministries, for example, consider the drug industry's orders for equipment unprofitable?the equipment requested is complex, at times unique, and often only 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 2' A major new decree, adopted in July 1987, on restructuring the USSR's material and technical supply system is designed to eliminate shortages of material resources in the economy by loosening central control over resource allocation and switching to a system of wholesale trade. The decree proposed a four-to-five-year period for the complete changeover. State orders will continue to account for defense-related materials and certain national re- sources, such as oil, gas, and metals, while a combination of state orders and wholesale trade will apply to enterprises producing other goods. Ultimately, certain sectors, such as consumer goods, are scheduled to change completely to wholesale trade Secret 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 necret Applications of Biotechnology New biotechnical methods, such as genetic engineer- ing, make it possible to lower the cost of many drugs and accelerate development of new compounds. In the United States, commercial applications of biotechnol- ogy have already resulted in new pharmaceuticals, including products to minimize the effects of heart attacks and to screen blood for antibodies to human immunodeficiency virus. Interferon and interleukins have been successful in treating some cancers, and DNA is used in genetic testing and "fingerprinting." With the express purpose "to introduce the achieve- ments of genetic and cellular engineering," the Sovi- ets established Biogen, an interbranch scientific and technological complex (MNTK), in December 1985.a Biogen has been tasked with manufacturing the "newest and latest generations of compounds for medicine and agriculture based on biotechnological methods." During 1986-90 about 250 kinds of new products are scheduled to be developed on the basis of biotechnology. The Soviets recently started an enterprise for the production of biotechnological prep- arations that they claim to be the first of its kind in Europe. The plant will use flexible manufacturing technology for preparing experimental test batches of drugs. The first biosynthesized products will be da- largin (used to treat ulcers), urokinaza (which dis- solves blood clots), and analgesic compounds. a MNTKs are complexes of research institutes and industrial organizations that operate across ministerial lines. Each MNTK has an academic or industrial institute as its nucleus and is designed to coordinate all of the work in its field throughout the USSR. Resources are supplied by the State Committee for Materi- al and Technical Supply. When new technologies are approved, the State Planning Committee selects the enterprises to use the technology. Planners believe that this method of organizing inter- sectoral development is simpler than organizational restructuring. Using biotechnology techniques, it is possible both to modify existing chemical and biological warfare agents and to create new ones. Many of the fermenta- tion processes and much of the equipment required to create pharmaceuticals for commerical use are the same as those required for the production of toxins and other chemical/biological warfare agents. Genetic engineering, for example, can be used to: ? Selectively modify existing infectious organisms to provide greater infectivity and greater resistance to environmental degradation. ? Change the molecular composition of toxins and produce toxins derived from other organisms, such as bacteria, fungi, and plants. ? Produce bioregulators, compounds normally pre- sent in the human body only in minute quantities. LI introduced in higher-than-normal concentrations or if genetic or chemical manipulation has been used to alter their structure or activity, they can produce a wide range of deleterious effects. Biotechnology-derived agents would have many ad- vantages over traditional biological warfare agents. Detection and identification would be more difficult because the variety of potential agents is essentially unlimited, and they would have a much wider range of effects. The effects caused by these potential agents could range from emotional and behavioral changes to physical effects such as extreme pain, rapid induc- tion of sleep, hemorrhage, and death. Properties could conceivably be tailored to specific field require- ments for stability, persistence, and rapidity of effect. Secret 14 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 ? Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 Secret a few pieces are needed. Furthermore, other sectors of the economy?such as energy?command higher pri- ority for supplies of machinery. The tightening of labor discipline will provide some short-term gains but little sustained benefit. Stiffer sentences for theft and black-market activities should curtail some corrup- tion, but there will always be those willing to take risks to supplement their low wages. Accelerated development of the pharmaceutical in- dustry requires a corresponding development of its raw material base. But many of the problems in securing supplies from other ministries remain un- solved. The Ministry of the Chemical Industry and the Ministry of the Petroleum Refining and Petro- chemical Industry, for example, have long delayed expansion of production, and they have few plans to produce certain raw materials such as small-tonnage and high-purity chemicals that are critically needed for the production of several medications. Moreover, shortfalls in the delivery of raw materials from the chemical industry will continue, because chemical plants, having their own ministerial hierarchy, feel that orders for the MMMI have less priority. As a result of the industry's failure to obtain sufficient resources, the system is likely to feel increased pres- sure for expansion of pharmaceutical imports. Most of any increase in imports will come from East European countries, but these countries cannot offer the scale of support needed. Imports of pharmaceuticals from the West are likely to increase somewhat, and there should be some opportunity for Western sales of production licenses and plants, particularly in the area of biotechnology. Hard currency constraints and a conservative approach to borrowing, however, proba- bly will limit purchases to those of highest priority. At the same time, we can look for growing Soviet interest in establishing additional scientific-technological Reverse Blank 15 cooperation agreements with Western pharmaceutical firms. Through cooperation agreements the Soviets may be able to gain better access to research pro- grams, chemical and microbiological products, and more advanced production technology. 25X1 The quality and sophistication of pharmaceutical products should improve with the increased role of 25X1 microbiology enterprises, and anticipated changes in the research and development system should help accelerate the pace of technological progress in the biomedical area. Because of its high profile as a leading-edge technology, biotechnology may receive undue attention while the real problems in supplying the Soviet consumer with necessary medications? such as new antibiotics, vitamins, and anticancer and cardiovascular drugs?get short shrift. 25X1 Unless the problem of inadequate pharmaceutical supplies becomes a more significant concern to the populace, leadership attention will remain focused on sectors that either are critical to industrial moderniza- tion or weigh heavily in consumers' perception of their well-being such as housing and food. Even increased funding and administrative efforts to improve phar- maceutical supply and distribution run the risk of bogging down in the morass of indifference, ineffi- ciency, and lack of quality that has so enmeshed other sectors of the economy not blessed with priority attention of the leadership. Failure to supply adequate pharmaceuticals will leave Soviet health care more on a par with that in the Third World than that in the developed West. At present, the Soviet populace seems inured to this situation, but morale could be seriously affected if health problems increase and the labor force becomes more knowled eable about the relative state of Soviet health care. Secret Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8 aeCiel Secret Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/03/18: CIA-RDP89T01451R000300310001-8