THE POLITICAL INSTABILITY QUARTERLY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88T00986R000100090001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 62
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 21, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 1, 1987
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP88T00986R000100090001-4
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP88T00986R000100090001-4
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP88T00986R000100090001-4
COPY
NO. (S)
REC IP I ENT
DATE
SENT
RETURNED
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP88T00986R000100090001-4
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Directorate of Secret
Intelligence
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The Political Instability Quarterly
November 1987
re
DI PIQ 87-004
November 1987
Copy
676
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP88T00986R000100090001-4
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP88T00986R000100090001-4
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP88T00986R000100090001-4
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP88T00986R000100090001-4
iJireitouttv UI ecret
Intelligence 25X1
The Political Instability Quarterly
November 1987
This quarterly was produced by and coordinated
within the Directorate of Intelligence. Comments and
suggestions are welcomer
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Secret
DI PIQ 87-004
November 1987
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP88T00986R000100090001-4
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP88T00986R000100090001-4
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Contents
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Page
Preface
Summary: Levels of Concern
vii
Part 1. Countries of Special Interest
1
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Panama: The
Office
Regime Faces Its Greatest Challenge
1
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of African and Latin American Analysis
Brazil: Sarne 's Eroding Authority
7
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2bAl
Office of African and Latin American Analysis
Central America:
Stability of
the
Office
Implications of the Peace Plan for the
13
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Democracies in the Short Term
of African and Latin American Analysis
Part 2.
Developments and Trends
19
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The Prospects for Instability in 30 Countries
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP88T00986R000100090001-4
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Preface
The Political Instability Quarterly
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The main objective of this quarterly is to provide warning of significant in-
stability in countries of importance to the United States by monitoring
changes in key elements affecting stability.
Significant instability, in our definition, may include any one of a
combination of the following?irregular regime change, coup d'etat,
breakdown of order, major civil war, revolutionary upheaval, or major
policy reorientation toward a radical anti-US stance.
A select group of 30 countries is covered regularly in the quarterly. The
countries have been selected because they are key US friends or allies,
located near strategic choke points, major oil producers or debtors,
geographically close to the United States, or especially salient or influential
in the Third World. Periodically we include countries that are not part of
this group of 30, but which are nonetheless important to US interests.
The time frame: This issue of the quarterly is based on an analysis of issues
and developments in the third quarter?for our purposes this is the August-
September-October time frame?and it projects our concerns about the
key elements affecting stability in the forthcoming fourth quarter?
November-December-January?as well. In addition, we include our gener-
al levels of concern for significant instability over the medium and longer
term for the select group of 30 countries. 25X1
This issue of The Political Instability Quarterly includes
? Part 1: Special essays on selected countries in which there have been
developments of particular interest. Each assessment ends with specula-
tive, forward-looking, "Most Likely" and "Alternative" scenarios, and
lists of indicators to be watched with reference to those scenarios.
? Part 2: Brief assessments of the 30 selected countries, including the
prospects for instability in the basic set of countries, levels of concern
25X1 regarding a list of 24 instability indicators, and country-specific tables
tracing significant political and economic changes during the past two
years.
V
Secret
DI PIQ 87-004
November 1987
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP88T00986R000100090001-4
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/11: CIA-RDP88T00986R000100090001-4
secret
Current Assessment and Prospects
4 1,11 it.1.2.,.111,11 IMCCI rill IN pr.
Ittit,eult., .1111'4.11111A ,CI 11111% copccm
.11).11 iii III iii,Iiliilili 1111?11t. CIS
Legend ? Serious concern
Substantial concern
Moderate concern
Low concern
0 Negligible concern
? Concern has increased since last quarter
? Concern has decreased since last quarter
Current Assessment
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99