SOVIET PARTICIPATION IN THE AIR DEFENSE OF MANCHURIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP98-00979R000100040001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 12, 2013
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: November 27, 1950
• Content Type: NIE

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I. 183
025928
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE
SOVIET PARTICIPATION IN THE
AIR DEFENSE OF MANCHURIA
N I E - 2 / 2
Published 27 November 1950
- - ? ? . rr r
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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WARNING
-
This document contains information affecting the na-
tional defense of the United States within the meaning
of the Espionage Act, 50 U.S.C., 31 and 32, as amended.
Its transmission or the revelation of its contents in any
manner to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
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DISSEMINATION NOTICE
1. This copy of this publication is for the information and use of the recipient
designated on the front cover and of individuals under the jurisdiction of the recipient's
office who require the information for the performance of their official duties. Further
dissemination elsewhere in the department to other offices which require the informa-
tion for the performance of official duties may be authorized by the following:
a. Special Assistant to the Secretary of State for Intelligence, for the Depart-
ment of State
b. Assistant Chief of Staff, G-2, for the Department of the Army
c. Director of Naval Intelligence, for the Department of the Navy
d. Director of Intelligence, USAF, for the Department of the Air Force
e. Director of Intelligence, AEC, for the Atomic Energy Commission
f. Deputy Director for Intelligence, Joint Staff, for the Joint Staff
g. Assistant Director for Collection and Dissemination, CIA, for any other
Department or Agency
2. This copy may be either retained or destroyed by burning in accordance with
applicable security regulations, or returned to the Central Intelligence Agency by ar-
rangement with the Office of Collection and Dissemination, CIA.
DISTRIBUTION (NIE Series) :
Office of the President
National Security Council
National Security Resources Board
Department of State
Office of Secretary of Defense
Department of the Army
Department of the Navy
Department of the Air Force
Atomic Energy Commission
Joint Chiefs of Staff
Federal Bureau of Investigation
Research and Development Board
Munitions Board
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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE
SOVIET PARTICIPATION IN THE
AIR DEFENSE OF MANCHURIA
NIE-2/ 2
The intelligence organizations of the Departments of State,
the Army, the Navy, and the Air Force participated in the
preparation of this estimate and concur in it. This paper
is based on information available on 21 November 1950.
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# = ESTIMATES - VIEW/OBTAIN FROM NARA
+ = PG. COUNT CONFIRMED
(SAN) = SANITIZED
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SOVIET PARTICIPATION IN THE AIR DEFENSE
OF MANCHURIA
THE PROBLEM
I. To estimate whether, in the event of UN air
attack on targets in Manchuria, the Soviet Air
Force would participate in the defense of such
targets.
CONCLUSIONS
2. In the circumstances envisaged in the prob-
lem, the USSR would provide aircraft, anti-
aircraft artillery, and trained personnel as
necessary for the defense of Manchurian tar-
gets. Sufficient resources for rendering such
aid are available in the Soviet Far East.
3. Soviet participation in the defense of Man-
churian targets could take any of the follow-
ing forms:
a. Actual participation without identifica-
tion.
b. The open participation of ostensibly vol-
unteer units.
c. The open participation of Soviet units as
a limited commitment under the Sino-Soviet
treaty.
d. The open participation of Soviet units as
an aspect of a general war forced on the Soviet
Union under the Sino-Soviet treaty.
4. At least initially, the most likely form of
Soviet participation in the air defense of Man-
churian targets would be the first?i.e., actual
participation in action without open identifi-
cation.
5. The open participation of Soviet units
would be unlikely unless general war should
develop.
6. A substantial risk that the situation may
degenerate into a general war already exists.
UN air attack on targets in Manchuria, alone,
probably would 'not cause the Soviet rulers to
decide to launch a general war, inasmuch as
the Kremlin's basic decision for or against war
would be based on global considerations. The
events likely to follow such attacks, however,
would carry with them a greater probability
of a general war developing.
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DISCUSSION
7. See:
a. CIA Memorandum for the National Se-
curity Council, 9 November 1950.
b. NIE-3, 15 November 1950.
c. NIE-2/1, 24 November 1950.
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GPO-SSG-5931
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