CIA AWARENESS OF PRE-HUNGARIAN REVOLUTION DEVELOPMENTS

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CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1
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June 22, 2012
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1
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March 1, 1957
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 25X1 MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence CIA Awareness of Pre-Hungarian Revolution Developments REFERENCE : Memorandum from the Legislative Counsel to DCI dated 22 March 1957 1. The attached Chronology (2 March - 23 October 1956) has been prepared in response to your oral request of 20 March 1957- 2. You will recall that at that morning's Staff Meeting you discussed the likelihood of Congressional questions about our advance intelligence on the Hungarian rebellion and asked that pertinent papers be assembled in a form suitable for ready reference as in- surance against such Congressional inquiries or criticism. The attached record of CIA reporting, briefing, and other activity demon- strates our understanding and expression of major developments leading up to the October revolution. 3. All objective chronologies, analyses, and eye-witness accounts of the rebellion testify to its completely spontaneous nature. We now know that the momentum and intensity of the events beginning October 23, 1956 surprised not only Western observers but the Soviets and even the Hungarians themselves. Major General Bela Kiraly has stated that all during September and October "there was not a thought in Hungary that there would be such a sudden outbreak." A report on the revolution prepared in the American Legation in Budapest (State Despatch 392, 21 February 1957) states, "that the struggle was spontaneous, unplanned, and lack of organization was the conclusion of every unprejudiced ob- server in Budapest." Peter Fryer in his book Hungarian Tragedy observes (as evidence of the spontaneity) that "no one yet has been able to produce a single weapon [used by the Hungarian rebelf manufactured in the West." Eye-witness accounts and information obtained from participantsmake it clear that the rebels' tactics were improvised on the spot and that leader- ship did not develop until several days after the outbreak of fighting. Had it not been for certain "accidental" features of the rebellion (23 October), for example, the inflammatory Gero speech and the AVH shooting Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 bil 01 which turned peaceful demonstrations into serious opposition, the Hungarian rebellion might well have taken a less violent turn. 4. While our chronological summary does not pretend to show that we predicted the precise time and place of the outbreak of violence in Bpdapest, it does show that we were aware of and reported on the potential explosiveness of the situation in Hungary and elsewhere in the Satellites. It demonstrates that we had information on the extent and the effect of the liberalization measures undertaken by the Soviets in Hungary, the critical power struggle in the Hungarian Communist hier- archy, the acute dissension in the Party ranks, the deep-rooted hatred of the population for their Communist rulers, and the deteriorating economic conditions. Also, the active part played by writers and other intellectuals in opposing the regime was well-covered. We are on record as pointing out more than once that the Soviets were faced with a choice in Hungary between losing effective control over their Satellite or adopt- ing repressive military measures; in effect, both of these eventualities came to pass. 5. To give a broader picture of our awareness of the post-20th Party congress develo meats, we have included in the Chronology not only raw reports inseminations) but also OCI articles, notes used by CIA officers in brie ing the NSC and other Agencies, PP Guidances, excerpts from your speeches, FBIS interpretations of Communist propaganda, etc. Although not reflected in the summary, it should be recognized that FBIS provided throughout the period very complete coverage of all pertinent broadcasts, both on the teletype and in their daily reports. The document- ary material summarized in the attached Chronology is available for more detailed review if needed. 6. The following numbered items, listed in the Chronology, appear to be of particular relevance to Congressional inquiry, although all 91 items contribute to the overall picture; No. 13 An earlreport on the uncontrolled criticism of the Personality Cult and the violent attacks against the Hungarian regime. No. 18 Your remarks at the University of Pennsylvania Law Review Dinner about the likelihood of Rakosi's downfall. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 ~ 'fur IT No. 22 A detailed (report on Hungarian Workers' Party meetings which took place in an atmosphere of "unsurpassed tension and violence." No. 41 Our Satellite paper which was discussed with State as early as June. Some of the language of this paper was used in your briefing at the White House in November (see item No. 90). No. 63 An OCI article discussing the possibility of a "run-away movement" which could be stopped only by "direct Soviet intervention." ,No. 78 Another OCI article which concludes: ."Failure fn the part of the USSR7 to act decisively might lead to a not-too-distant choice between military intervention or a loss of control over some of the Satellites." Deputy Director (Plans) Attachment: (1) "Selective Chrono of CIA Intelligence Activity Preceding the Hungarian Revolution" March - October 1956 BEGET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 EEE SELECTIVE CHRONOLOGY OF CIA INTELLIGENCE ACTIVITY PRECEDING THE HUNGARIAN REVOLUTION MARCH - OCTOBER 1956 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 tiG~ a> SELECTIVE CHRONOLOGY OF CIA INTELLIGENCE ACTIVITY PRECEDING THE HUNGARIAN REVOLUTION DATE OF DISTRIBUTION NUMBER OR RELEASE R1TERENCE QUOTATION, EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION 1. 2 March Current Intelligence "The possibility of a revision of the Rajk trial, Digest, Page 1 which has been rumored for several months, has been increased by the Soviet party congress' official endorsement of the principle of 'diff- erent roads to socialism' and its criticisms of Stalin's practices... It would be an impor- tant gesture toward removing an outstanding barrier to closer relations with Yugoslavia." 2. 5 March 3. 8 March Current Intelligence "Hungarian party leader Rakosi, who has been Weekly Review, Page 12 having difficulty for some time in controlling nationalist elements among the Hungarian Commu- nists, probably faces new threats to his position." 18 March Current Intelligence "The defensive statements contained in Rakosi's Bulletin, page 6 report on the congress tend to support reports of division within the central committee and to indicate that the recent Soviet party congress has strengthened the opposition of nationalist elements within the party." 5. 23 March Current Intelligence "Since developments at the Soviet party congress Digest, Page 3 are apparently encouraging the strong rightist opposition within the Hungarian party, both Rakosi and Moscow will probably try to pursue a moderate and cautious policy in Hungary in order to avoid further exacerbating the problem of party unity and control." Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 DATE OF DISTRIBUTION NUMBER OR RELEASE REFERENCE QUOTATION, EXACT OR DESCRIPTION 6. 30 March Current Intelligence Comment on FBIS report on "rehabilitation" Bulletin, Page 5 of Laszlo Rajk. "....., the exoneration of Rajk will undoubtedly stimulate the active anti-Rakosi and nationalist sentiment within the Hungarian party." Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 DATE OF DISTRIBUTION NUMBER OR RELEASE 7. 9 April REFERENCE 8. 10 April Current Intelligence Digest, Page 5 QUOTATION, EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION "Hungarian Communist Party ranks are in an uproar as a result of the denigration of Stalin. Party members are demanding a national scapegoat, preferably Matyas Rakosi." These reports, 25X1 indicative of the uncertainty within the Hungarian party as a result of the condemna- tion of Stalin. ...9-fie Hungarian public un- doubtedly hopes that the denigration of Stalin will result in removal of the latter's devout 'yes-man' Rakosi." 13 April DCI address to the "Stalin's henchmen were put in key positions Los Angeles world throughout the length and breadth of the Affairs Council Soviet Union. They hold key places in the European satellite regimes. Each and every one of these appointees must today fear not only for his future, but for his life. "Already political idols are toping or at least swaying in the wind from Moscow--in Bulgaria, in Hungary, in Poland. Names of former leaders who crossed Stalin are coming back into repute daily, and political circles in: the Satellites are plainly in confusion and near panic trying to figure out where the line of propriety will be drawn next." 10. 18 April Current Intelligence "The mounting opposition in the Hungarian Bulletin, Page 6 party, which will be strengthened by the resignation of Chervenkov in Bulgaria, increases the likelihood that Moscow will withdraw its support of Rakosi." Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 DATE OF DISTRIBUTION NUMBER OR RELEASE 11. 20 April REF=CE QUOTATION, EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION "As a consequence of the recent struggle for leadership within the Hungarian Communist Party a new group, which follows a line be- tween the positions of First Seczetary Matyas Rakosi and former Premier Imre Nagy, has gained prominence. "Among the principal exponents of this group, which received consibrabl support after the 20th Congress of the Soviet Communist Party, are the following persons: "a. Janos Kadar is the Party Secretary for the Budapest area (Pestmegye)." 12. 23 April Current Intelligence "The Soviet Union has consistently reindorsed Digest, Page 4 Rakosi and appears reluctant to authorize1 s removal. However, the deterioration of Hung- arian party discipline coupled with an apparent intent on the part of the USSR to develop the appearance of greater Satellite autonomy may lead Moscow to re-appaise this support." 13. 25 April An analysis of uncontrolled criticism of the Personality Cult in Hungary. -- "There now appears to have developed in Hungary a rash of criticism and a definite lack of control in certain places which has degenerated into violent attacks against the regime itself rather than against Stalinist practices." 14. 27 April 25X1 Report on election of party cell secretariats reveals dissension within ranks of Hungarian. Communist Party. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 DATE OF DISTRIBUTION NUMBER OR RELEASE 15. 27 April 16. 27 April REFERENCE QUOTATION, EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION Report on arrest of Hungarian journalists because of their anti-regime activities. Specific examples of the confusion in the hierarchy and lower echelons of the Hungarian Communist Party. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 STAT Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 DATE OF DISTRIBUTION NCTIBER OR RELEASE 20. l4+ May 25X1 RFFFRENCE QUOTATION, EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION A 10-page report on the revolt of the Hungarian writers against Communist restrictions. 21. 27 May Current Intelligence "Unless willing to run counter to present Bulletin, Page 7 Satellite policy by granting Rakosi increased police powers with which to subdue his party enemies, Moscow may be forced to reconsider its support of an increasingly unpopular and unstable figure." 22. 28 May "On 12 March 1956 the first meeting of the Central Committee of the Htimgarian Workers' (Communist) Party (HWP) since the 20th Congress of the Soviet Communist Party took place in an unsurpassed atmosphere of tension and violence." ..."The same stormy atmosphere prevailed in many party meetings in institutions and factories, with shouting and hysterical outbursts by dis- illusioned members who claimed to have been be- trayed by the party's teachings over the past ten years." 23. 29 May memo to DDI ..."If the political situation continues to L~DX"I on the Leadership deteriorate, Moscow may be forced to withdraw Problem in Hungary its support of Rakosi to prevent the development of political chaos in Hungary." ..."The selection of one of Rakosi's supporters, or of an individual not belonging to either faction, would please those who have a strong personal dislike of Rakosi, but it might actually create more problems than it solves. There is little reason to bel ieve that such a -Pi m,-re _ Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 drE E DATE OF DISTRIBUTION NUMBER OR RELEASE 23. (continued) REFERENCE QUOTATION, EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION lacking Rakosi's experience and shrewdness, would be able to implement party policy better or to overcome the problem of party factionalism. In addition, the removal of Rakosi after so much overt criticism might generate additional pres- sures for an unrestrained, Nagy-like move to the right--which would be apparent not only in Hungary, but throughout the Satellites." Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 DATE OF DISTRI- NUMBER BUT ION OR RELEASE 24. 6 June 25. 7 June 26. 15 June 25X1 REFERENCE 25X1 a member of the Communist Party QUOTATION, EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION Report on anti-Communist sentiments in Hungary. country.,.. 25X1 activists? meetin s held thr Report on the struggle for power in H WP. "The intensity of the struggle for power in the hierarchy of the Hungarian Workers' (Communist) Party CHAP) continues to grow." ..."The disillusion of the rank and file with the Communist Party and its leader- ship is reflected in the minutes from He also stated that people in the area of Szent Istvan are not as afraid of the Com- munist regime as they used to be and said there are many evidences of anti-regime sentiment, including bulletins which were posted recently on walls in Szent Istvan which said in effect, "We would like to hang Rakosi." He reported that these bulletins were on the walls for several days as the police did not "see" them, a strong implication that the police shared the sentiment expressed." actually he is quite anti-Communist.... Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 DATE OF DISTRI- NUMBER BUTION OR RELEASE REFERENCE QUOTATION, EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION 27. 16 June TS Memo from DDP 1. Clandestine Services have the following to DDI. NSC Plan- general comments on this paper: ning Board draft of a. We feel that the tone of the 7 June 1956, sub- paper does ject, "U.S. Policy not adequately reflect the degree of Toward the Soviet change which has emerged within the Satellites in East- Satellites since the 20th CPSU Con- ern Europe" gress. As a result, this paper does not adequately reflect the real oppor- tunities that the U.'S.' and other western powers may have to influence the direction of these changes and the resultant ferment. We feel that the draft 25X1 25X1 more adequatel25X1 reflects the emerging opportunities. If similar plans were developed vis- a-vis the Satellites, including oppor- tunities,for manipulation via U.S.' trade and fiscal policy, U.'S.' diplo- matic moves and U.S. overt propaganda and information activities, particu- larly in the East-West contacts field, we believe that a rather impressive plan for potential action would emerge." 28. 18 June 25X1 Continuation of attacks on Communist hierarchy. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 7 T DATE OF DISTRI- NUMBER BUTION OR RELEASE REFERENCE 29. 21 June RQI/OIS analysis of the Khrushchev attack on Stalin. QUOTATION,,_ EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION "Khrushchev's speech, however, has caused profound embarrassment to the Party leaders in the satellites. For these leaders served Stalin and are identifiec25X1 with his policies; and they cannot, like Khrushchev, absolve themselves by plead- ing helplessness before Stalin's tyranny, since this would constitute an acknowledge- ment that they have never in fact been independent of the Kremlin's dictates. To add to their difficulties, Khrushchev's violent indictment of the Communist re- gime which the satellite Parties had faithfully served has touched off a wave of cynicism among important intellectual and idealistic elements of those Parties. The result has been embarrassment, con- fusion and factionalism, the rehabilita- tion of leaders purged during the Stalin regime, demands upon the present leaders for self-criticism, and in some cases their replacement by new leaders.... The sudden revelation of specific details of the Stalin era has provided a shock which the satellite Parties have been unable to absorb without loss of discipline.... Hungarian Party members have been inspired to similar dissidence by the Soviet de- glorification of Stalin. A central com- mittee meeting shortly after the 20th Congress reportedly took place in an atmosphere of recrimination against first secretary Rakosi. High-level factional- ism has continued. Rakosits posthumous Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 E DATE OF DISTRI- NUMBER BUTION OR RELEASE REFERENCE QUOTATION, EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION 30. 22 June 31. 22 June 32. About 28 June Briefing of Under-Secretary of State rehabilitation of Laszlo Rajk, former foreign minister purged and executed as a Titoist in 1949, has stimulated rather than quelled opposition elements. Nor has Rakosi=s self-critical speech of 18 May appeased his opponents." "While Rakosi appears to have held his own so far, T,iarshal Titots current visit to the USSR is expected to turn the decision against him.... The coming man in the Hungarian Workers? Party at the moment is Janos Kadar." Dissolution of party cell for advocating resignation of Rakosi. At a meeting in the State Dept. on or about 28 June 1956 attended by the Director and the Deputy Director, Plans, there was extensive discussion of unrest in the Satellites. Both the Director and the DDP referred to the potential dis- turbances in Poland and Hungary. 33. 28 June Current Intelli- "Open Discontent: Dissidence, discontent gence Weekly and open demonstrations have appeared in one or another of the Satellites since the 20th Party Congress in the parties and in student and intellectual circles. This has not been of sufficient magnitude to represent a serious threat to the regimes. Such behavior, however, is symptomatic of the deep-seated and wide- spread hatred for Stalinist forms of Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 DATE OF DISTRI- NUMBER BUTION OR RELEASE QUOTATION, EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION control that continues to seethe beneath the surface in Eastern Europe.... Moscow's dilemma, and the basic risk it is taking, is how to placate these feel- ings and if possible guide them gradu- ally into productive channels without also causing their explosive and des- tructive release and perhaps forcing the USSR to intervene forcibly. It is at this point that Moscow appears to be most vulnerable in the long run as the corps of tried and tested Satellite leaders gradually dwindles and as, per- haps, less loyal leaders take over in each Satellite. 34. 29 June Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 DATE OF DISTRIBUTION NUMBER OR RELEASE 35. 3 July 36. 3 July 37. 6 July SEC 38. 6 July FBIS - USSR Survey The Satellites have hailed the CPSU Resolution as a contribution to working class unity and have completely avoided commenting on Togliatti's arguments in broadcasts to their domestic audi- ences. However, a unique comment by a Dr. Sandor Novobaczky broadcast by Budapest in Hungarian to Western Europe on 31 July stresses that the Togliatti article reflects the greater autonomy now being allowed all communist parties, including the Hungarian." lI QUOTATION, EX'T`RACT OR DESCRIPTION "The attempts of Mikhail Suslov, member of the Presidium of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, to mediate between opposing factions of the HWP (Hungarian Workers' (Communist) Party) were abortive." 'There has been a lack of direction by the Hungarian Workers' (Communist) Party (NDP) to its members serving at foreign posts as to how the MP plans to react to the results of the 20th CPSU Party Congress." ..."The dismantling of frontier barriers between Hungary and Austria is described as a positive indication that the MDP feels confident it has the internal situation in Hungary under absolute control. The-dismantling of these border obstacles will increase the number of flights of refugees from Hungary to Austria, but the loss of perhaps ten thousand inhabitants cannot seriously affect the stability of the present Hungarian government." Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 DATE OF DISTRIBUTION NUMBER OR RELEASE REFERENCE 38. 39. (continued) 6 July FBIS - USSR Survey 0. 6 July 1. 2. 41. 10 July "Keystone" memo to Dept. of State for- warding draft of Satellite paper QUOTATIONS, EXTRACTS OR DESCRIPTION ..."While there have been signs of increasing autonomy manifest in Satellite propaganda since the XX Congress, this commentary is the most blatant statement to date." In the strongest indication of dissension within Hungarian Party ranks since the Rakosi- Nagy dispute, a 30 June Hungarian Central Committee resolution castigates 'anti-Party elements'for launching a steadily mounting attack and taking an 'open stand' against the Party. ..."The Central Committee resolution is followed by a SZAB.AD NEP editorial (3 July) claiming Petofi circles called for a 'new revolution' and a new 'ides of March." Communist Overtures to Smallholders and Social Democrats. Rehabilitation of Social Democrats. The Satellite paper reads in part: "The denigration of Stalin has aheken the mono- lithic structure of Soviet power, has raised the basic questions as to the infallibility of Soviet leadership among important elements of communist parties in the satellite nations, and has re- sulted in arousing to varying degrees latent aspirations for relaxation of oppression, res- toration of national independence, and establish- ment of governments responsive and responsible to popular will." Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 DATE OF DISTRIBUTION NUMBER OR RELEASE 1i. (continued) 42. 11 July REFERENCE QUOTATION, EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION ..."Even though the Kremlin is assumed to intend retaining real control over the satellite power structure, recent liberalizing policies have set in motion certain social and political trends toward independence, personal freedoms, and representative governments which may prove irreversible short of violent repression." ..."The developing ferment within the communist parties has been particularly noticeable among the youth and the intellectuals. It has mani- fested itself in many ways, including outright attacks on the Soviet U,ion. The thaw has gone furthest and the ferment has become most apparent in Poland, which has always resisted Soviet dom- ination more than the other satellites. Czecho- slovakia, Hungary, and Albania also have a growing degree of ferment." Hungarian Discussion of Tito's Economic Proposal in Moscow 'When Jozsef Revai, prominent member of the Hungarian Workers' (Communist) Pasty, was told of Tito's intention to raise this question in Moscow, he launched a determined attack at a recent secret party meeting against Matyas Rakosi, describing him as a despot interested only in furthering his own and his family's interests." 43. 19 July FBIS - USSR Survey "Apparently fearful of Satellite repercussions, ed the Polish l d i ll ay erp y u ca Moscow has drast disorders, particularly in broadcasts to the Satellites, who have heard no Soviet comment whatever except a single talk for Czechoslovakia audiences." 16 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 1E T NUMBER OR RELEASE REFERENCE QUOTATION, EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION 43. (continued) ..."Comment following the 30 June Hungarian Central Committee resolution condemning the views expressed at the Petofi Club meetings reflects the Central Committee decision to call a halt to the expression of excessively liberal views. Comment singles out the writers, Tardos and Deri for their erroneous=.views. However, the continuing criticism of the Petofi discussions is tempered by SZARAD NEEP comment indicating a conciliatory policy toward the rank and file participants." ."There has been virtually no other Bloc comment on the Petofi discussions. However, a 15 July PRAVDA article cites the activities of the Petofi Club together with Poznan as stemming from activities of imperialist agents." ..."Soviet concern over the weakening of Bloc and international Community unity and the possible spread of Titoism to the European Satellites has been particularly evident in Soviet propaganda since last month's restoration of free and equal Party ties with Yugoslavia and the abortive calls by Western Communist and Socialist leaders for greater autonomy from Moscow." 44. 19 July Current Intelligence The removal of Matyas Rakosi from his post as Bulletin, Page 3 Hungarian party first secretary and from his position on the politburo on 18 July, coupled with the election of new members to the polit- buro, represents a clear-cut gain for the moderate faction of the Party. The selection, however, of economic czar Erno Gero as the new first secretary probably reflects Moscow's desire to restrain and control the rightist movement, while simultaneously granting some of its demands. First Deputy Premier Gero is a "hard-line" Rat si follower and reliable Moscow-oriented Communist." Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 DATE OF DISTRIBUTION NUMBER OR RELEASE R 'REXCE QUOTATION, EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION 4+. (continued) ..."The removal of Rakosi and the increase in the power of the 'soft-line' forces are compromise measures which presumably have been adopted as a calculated risk, one that is to be minimized by the selection of Gero as party first secretary. The risk stems from the probable creation of confusion among Rakosi followers and the possible stimulation of new and outspoken demands from the intellec- tuals and from the party moderates, especially at lower levels." 45. 19 July Notes for NSC Briefing by DCI "Rakosi removal represents clear-cut gain for the moderate faction of the Hungarian. party. In recent months, moderate forces have been coalescing into an active political force, favoring 'democratization' of the Communist system and immediate rise in living standards." ..."Selection of such a doctrinal 'hard' as boss, coupled with simultaneous movement of several moderates to the politburo may create more problems than it solves. Hence, move appears to be a calculated risk in an effort to overcome factionalism." ..."This risk stems both from creation of con- fusion among Rakosi's former followers and from stimulation of new and outspoken demands for concessions and change from intellectuals and party moderates, especially at lower levels, now that the bogey-man is gone." 46. 21 July 25X1 Information on activities of Rakosi opponents obtained prior to his resignation. 18 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 NUMBER OR RELEASE 47. 23 July 23 July QUOTATION, EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION Present Attitudes of Hungarian Communists. "The rank-and-file membership of the MDP is reacting favorably to the 'different roads to socialism' theory. This theory appeals to the Hungarians since they would like to feel that they can solve their problems in a Hungarian way and not in the brutal way of the USSR. This theory of 'different roads to socialism' also makes room for a nationalistic solution and a feeling that different national mentalities require different types of treatment." "In the wake of the 20th Congress of the Soviet Communist Party, Imre Nagy's popularity has risen in Hungary. People ask each other what Nagy will . do, if he joins the government in the immediate future, to effect a continued relaxa- tion of controls and to improve the economic position of the man in the street. People feel that no major change can be expected from. Matyas Rakosi or .no Gero; therefore, their hopes are tied to Nagy." 49. 25 July 19 Specific examples of internal unrest. "At a writers' meeting on or about 10 July, 199 out of the two hundred persons who were present condemned the Central Committee's decision as 'undemocratic'." ..."There have been strong indications of dis- affection among Communist intellectuals. The intellectuals know, however, that they can wage a fight only inside the Party." ..."Hungarians in general express criticism quite openly. They even dare to speak English to Westerners." Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 DATE OF DISTRIBUTION NUMBER OR RELEASE 50. 26 July 51. 30 July 52. 30 July REFF=CE QUOTATION,EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION 25X1 "The events that started in Moscow with the de-Stalinization program have more than ever begun to have some influence in Hungary, and they are travelling at a pace where the results cannot be predicted." "On 18 July 1956, Soviet Deputy Premier Anastas Mikoyan addressed the Central Committee of the HWP (Hungarian Workers' (Communist) Party), and admitted that the dismissal of former Premier Imre Nagy from the government had been a serious error." Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 AUGUST DATE OF DISTRI- NUMBER BUTION OR RELEASE REFERENCE QUOTATION, EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION 53. 2 August 25X1 Report on trial of Hungarian journalists for "public utterances of views against the state and the regime." 54. 2 August NIE 11-4-56 "There are some risks for the USSR in this Soviet Capabilities post-Stalin course, particularly in the and Probable Courses possibility of exaggerated expectations of Action Through in the Satellites. By permitting an 1961 atmosphere of expectant change to develop, Bloc leaders will probably stimulate new nationalist and reformist sentiment, even within the Satellite parties themselves, which could exceed the level that they anticipated or could safely allow. In the course of reversing Stalinist policies, particularly toward Yugoslavia, the USSR has weakened and in some cases destroyed the position of competent and dependable leaders. On the other hand, by seeking to maintain in power many of the leaders who were identified with Stalinist policies, the USSR risks disillusioning those who believed in its promises of greater independence and respect for national differences. Finally, the new policies will introduce a new element of complexity in Soviet-Satellite rela- tions, with age-old controversies in Eastern Europe and differences in national tradition and temperament almost certainly increasing in importance." "Nevertheless, the basic instruments of Soviet domination--a core of Communist careerists whose first loyalty is to Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 DATE OF DISTRI- NUMBER BUTION OR RELEASE 55. 3 August REFERENCE QUOTATION, EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION Moscow, the functioning of Soviet ad- visers at key points in the Satellite armies and police systems, the substantial economic dependence of the Satellites on the USSR imposed by Soviet-directed economic plans, and the presence or prox- imity of Soviet armed force--will remain. Dissatisfaction among the Satellite popu- lations will continue and, in the short run, may even increase and dramatize it- self in sporadic protest movements. Over the longer in, if the regimes find it possible to combine somewhat less stringent economic policies with effective discipline, an increasingly resigned and accommodating attitude may emerge among the Satellite populations. However, if active opposi- tion should increase, we believe that the regimes would employ whatever measures were necessary to maintain themselves in power, even at the cost of abandoning their current effort to conciliate the populations under their control." A monthly survey of developments in Hungary. "In conclusion, we tend to feel that Gero's emergence as party leader and his lukewarm policy formulations are interim measures, unlikely to satisfy anti-regime critics or restore party unity. The developments outlined above, when read together with Rakosi's forced resignation, point to the re-emergence of an effective body of public opinion in Hungary." Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 DATE OF DISTRI- NUNIBER BUTION OR RELEASE 56. 3 August 25X1 57. 7 August REFERENCE A true internal crisis exists within the Hungarian Workers' Party. The cause lies less in personal conflicts than in the fact that many prominent Communists have been dissatisfied by the mistakes made during the Stalin era. It is thus no wonder that criticism is led by intellectuals, such as writers, and artists." 58. 9 August 59. 10 August QUOTATION, EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION More details on Petofi Circle Meetings. "In early August 1956 Budapest ward branches of the HWP '(Hungarian Workers' (Communist) Party) convened closed meet- ings of cell secretaries of plants and institutions to announce that the HWP Central Committee had decided to re- habilitate former Premier Imre Nagy, pending his self-criticism concerning certain errors committed during his tenure of office." 60. 11 August Current Intelli- Commenting on (above)-- gence Bulletin "Previously Nagy has re se to engage in self-criticism, and the party as recently as mid-July reiterated that he was guilty of rightist deviation. However, the Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 DATE OF DISTRI- NUMBER BUTION OR RELEASE 61. 15 August 62. 16 August REFERENCE NOTATION, EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION increase in power of the moderate ele- ments among Hungarian Communists and the removal of Nagy's primary opponent for- mer party first secretary Rakosi, may have opened the way for Nagy to regain political influence by admitting some past errors and promising to work for party unity." 25X1 reported continuous appearances of anti-Communist signs on walls and in factories around Szentistvan and an apparent lack of fear Rakosi on the part of the people also 25X1 stated neighbors joined ehind drawi25X1 curtains to listen to VOA and RFE broad- casts." s on Hungarian Writers' Revolt.25X1 writers' and artists' movement not only fought for intellectual freedom, but also for e.cQnomic improvement. While it was true that today it was only a fight of "intellectuals," there could be no question that these intellectuals would never be satisfied with obtaining only greater freedom of speech and of the press. 'Re- sults in literature are the forerunners of economic results,' he said." Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 Lam' DATE OF DISTRI- NUMBER BUTION OR RELEASE REFERENCE QUOTATION, EXTRACTOR DESCRIPTION as quite excited about the result people, too, would have to acknowledge the writers? revolt, he said, and would have to understand that it was their affair, and that instead of passively resisting, they would have to support it actively. He vehemently denied, however, that he meant "activity" in the Poznan style, although he thought, in a general way, that the revolution could be carried outside the Party and become a national movement." o the elections at the Writers= Asso- ciation conference and ascribed to them an enormous political significance. The 63. 16 August Current Intelli- "The immediate goal of the Satellite gence Weekly parties is to maintain or restore party Review unity; a longer-range purpose is to gain increased popular support for the Commu- nist system. The approach to these objectives in Poland, and possibly Hungary, appears to represent a genuine departure from previous methods and thus holds at least some slim promise of gaining popu- larity for the system. Such a program, however, poses a direct threat to the immediate aim of building party unity, since increasing pressures for more politi- cal and economic freedom might produce a run-away movement that could be stopped only by direct Soviet intervention. Al- though, conversely, the more orthodox Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 DATE OF DISTRI- NUMBER BUTION OR RELEASE REFERENCE 26 7: 7 QUOTATION, EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION approach to the same objectives in the other Satellites may be attended by fewer risks, the likelihood of achieving the longer-range goal of popular support ap- pears not much brighter than it did during the Stalin era." ... "The pressures for personnel and policy changes generated in Hungary by the Soviet party congress were second in mag- nitude only to those in Poland. Party factionalism and general disaffection with the top party leadership, evident since early last year, came more and more into the open and produced specific attacks against party leader Rakosi, condemnations of "Stalinist" policies, and strong calls for intellectuals and some party members for an era of party democracy and modera- tion." ... "It seems possible that Gero, with Moscowts support, may for a time achieve a measure of what Rakosi, with the same support, had utterly failed to accomplish, i.e., at least the surface appearance of party unity. By abandoning Rakosits tendencies toward a hard line and by appearing conciliatory, while at the same time attempting to keep a restraining hand on the activities of the extreme right-wing group around former premier Imre Nagy, Gero may be able to reduce overt forms of party dissidence. But because he has been closely identified with Rakosi, Gero probably is basically unpalatable to major segments of the party." Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 DATE OF DISTRI- NUMBER BUTION OR RELEASE 25X1 64. 23 August REFERENCE QUOTATION, EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION "Accordingly, his success i.s likely to be both limited and temporary and his posi- tion as first secretary may be shortlived. The eventual selection of a leader cap- able of gaining more support from within the party would appear to be a distinct possibility." "The regime of Erno Gero is merely tran- sitory. All former adherents of Matyas Rakosi are to be ousted, since people will have absolutely no faith in the regime until that happens. The wing headed by Janos Kadar and Imre Nagy is expected to take the reins in the near future. This, along with the continuance of the new post-Stalin course, is hailed as the road to Hungary's slow but permanent rehabilita- tion. Imre Nagy himself will soon be rehabilitated and rejoin the party on the basis of a compromise formula, whereby the party will admit that Rakosi, in 1955, was guilty of injustice against Nagy, while Nagy will agree to revise his 'extremist' views." 65. 23 August Current Intelli- "During the five weeks since Gero's appoint- gence Weekly ment as Hungarian party leader, the re- gime has granted an increasing number of significant concessions--economic, cul- tural and political--to elements of the party who favor an over-all "liberalization" program. This modification of policy, a Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 DATE OF DISTRI- NUMBER BUTION OR RELEASE REFERENCE QUOTATION, EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION reflection of the strength of the moderate group, represents an effort to re-estab- lish party unity through compromise and the abandonment of rigid doctrinal posi- tions." "The most dramatic and potentially explo- sive aspect of this program has been the revision in the leadership's attitude concerning the future status of former premier Imre Nagy, who was ousted from the party by Rakosi last year on grounds of Iright-wing deviationism.t" "The politburo changes in July have taken on added significance in the light of the increasingly important public role of Janos Kadar, alleged leader of the moder- ate force, is playing in the implementa- tion of party policy. On 12 August, Kadar, who was appointed to the party politburo and secretariat and now appears to be one of the top six figures in the party line by charging that the rightist deviation of Nagy in 1953 stemmed from errors committed between 1949 and 1953, presumably by Rakosi and Gero." "The moderates appear willing to work for party unity while consolidating and strengthening their political position and pressing for a step-by-step liberali- zation of the regime's policies. In this fashion, they hope to come to power with- out weakening the over-all authority of the party and without risking direct Soviet repressive action." 28 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 DATE OF DISTRI- NUMBER BUTION OR RELEASE REFERENCE gUOTATION, EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION "It appears likely that after consolidat- ing their position, the moderates will carry their attack against Gero, whose resignation was demanded by the intellect- uals even before the ouster of Rakosi. Andras Hegedus, present premier and a protege of Rakosi, probably is also a candidate for removal." 66. 10 August 25X1 Hungarian Artists! Comments on Problems of Communism. "The people felt that they had sufficient strength to achieve their final aim: complete freedom. For this, however, they needed the moral support of the Free World which was never as important as it was today. Since Stalin's dethronization, the position of the Hungarian Workers! Party had become more precarious then ever, the artists said.... It was the opinion of the members of the Hungarian artists' delegation that the increasing resistance among workers and intellectuals, the debates in the Petofi Circle, and the Hungarian reaction to the Czechoslovak and Polish unrest were all connected, and that something very important would spring from it." 25X1 67. 28 August "The following views ofl 25X1 25X1 Far reaching 25X1 changes can be expected in Hungary soon, 29 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 DATE OF DISTRI- NUMBER BUTION OR RELEASE REFERENCE QUOTATION, EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION though less violent than those in Poland, according to 25X1 thinks that in the May 1957 elections there will not be just the Communist-led ;Independent Fronts but candidates nominated by other parties." Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 NUAg3ER 68. 69. DATE OF DISTRIBUTION OR RELEASE 4 September REFERENCE QUOTATION, EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION t%r ZZLU, Unrest Preceding Rakosi's Resignation "The Petofi Circle had undoubtedly been highly critical of the shortcomings of the Rakosi regime, admitted. Beginning as an 25X1 organ of the Communist youth movement, it had attracted at first attendance of no more than some two hundred persons. Usually a member of the government was invited to lecture. In the course of time the meetings grew to be very popular, and on one occasion no less than 7,000 people attended; questions were freely raised, and the situation nearly developed into a riot. Many journalists complained that Petofi's main demand in 1848, 'Freedom for the Press,' had not been granted. The organizers were re- buked for allowing the meeting to get out of hand. But many intellectuals, mainly newspaper- men and university students, remained critical and restive. appeared to approve 25X1 of this movement." ..."The future of Gero depended on the Hungarian Workers' (Communist) Party, as did that of Andras Hegedus and other leaders. A change might occur in the foreseeable future 'as a result of the processes of the Communist democracy.' If Gero were to go, 25X1 thought, Janos Kadar was a possible successor.` 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 DATE OF DISTRIBUTION NUMBER OR RELEASE 70. 6 September REFERENCE QUOTATION, EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION "A meeting of HWP (Hungarian Workers' (Communist) Party) members of the Writers' Association, held in early July 1956, developed into a lively discussion of the Central Committee resolution of 30 June 1956. The terms of the resolution were, in effect, rejected by a majority of those in attendance, who proclaimed the right to independent expression in the spirit of the decisions made by the 20th Congress of the 71. 10 September the Nav faction." Hungarian Reaction to Matyas Rakosi's Resignation. ..."The comments by the Central Committee on the Nagy problem were sharp in tone and tended to convince most of the NDP members in East Berlin that Nagy is the man of the future in Hungarian politics. It is felt that, if the present trend continues, Nagy and his followers will soon remove Gero and the eventual control of the MDP and the Hungarian government will be in the hands of Report on Economic Deterioration in Hungary. Secretary of the Hungarian Workers' (Communist) as is opinion tdiat o Gero, the new First Party, would not remain in power for more than another six months in the face of the worsening economic situation, as he did not have the ability to master it." Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 DA'L'E OF DISTRIBUTION NUMBER OR RELEASE QUOTATION, EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION 73. 25 September Current Intelligence "Soviet Influence Seen Seriously Threatened. Bulletin, Page 3 in Hungary" ..."The USSR apparently has already warned Hungary and the other Satellites not to trans- gress the Soviet-established limits of the 'independent roads to Socialism' doctrine, but this warning has evidently had little effect in Hungary to date." 71.. 27 September FBIS - USSR Survey "Reacting to the reportedly defiant stand taken by the Hungarian writers in rejecting criticisms by Party functionaries at the 17 September meeting of the Writers'Federation, a SZABAD NEP editorial on 19 September couches its rejoinder in a moderate tone." 75. September 1956 Extract from rough notes of DDI for speech to Army War College Satellites -- Ferment - Greatest since 4+5-48 Real loosening of reins - gave up trying to dictate details want sympathetic 'allied' regimes e.g., Com?ny but not automatons or puppets. Almost a 'Commonwealth' a la British Two phases--straighten out party disputes; then get increasing popular support--inter- connection. Poles leading Moderates under Cyrankiewicz quite extra- ordinary advances and measures after Poznan riots Real elections - really told Bulganin off Cozying up to French and US stressing inde- pendence of foreign policy - Hungary next - Rakosi- tough Moscow oriented bray ousted - Gero Middle of roader apparently paving way for Nagy--virtually a Titoist." Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 DATE OF DISTRIBUTION NUMBER OR RELEASE REFERENCE QUOTATION EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION 76. 3 October Extracts from notes "These talks [Tito-Khrushchev7 evidently prepared for DDCI use stem from a recent agreement among the Soviet at NSC briefing leaders that some form of action must be taken to reassert Soviet control in the two Satellites that have shown the sharpest trend toward 'over-democratization' and 'independence' --Poland and Hungary." ."Hungarian party boss Gero--who arrived Lt Ya1t7 at the same time as Bulganin--was probably brought in to reinforce the argument that Polish and Hungarian trends contain the seeds of a Western bourgeois heresy much like the Djilas heresy Tito has suppressed in Yugo- slavia. Watch Report of the "The Tito-Khrushchev talks in Belgrade and Intelligence Advisory those in the Crimea which have also involved Committee the head of the Hungarian Communist Party and various Soviet Party and military leaders: The primary reason for these talks appears to be Soviet concern over the effects on Satellite Communist Parties of Tito's independ- ent policies and relations with the USSR. This concern was evident in a Soviet warning of 3 September to the Satellites to follow the USSR rather than Yugoslavia in their evo- lution toward socialism. It cannot be determined whether Soviet-Yugoslav differences are as serious as the Yugoslavs have indicated. The unexplained presence of Marshal Grechko. Commander of the Group of Soviet Forces, Germany, despite the apparent absence of his military superiors and of Yugoslav military advisers, nay indicate some military interest in these talks bearing on the Soviet military position in Eastern Europe. 3i' Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 DATE OF DISTRIBUTION NUMBER OR RELEASE REFERENCE QUOTATION, EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION 78. 4 October Current Intelligence "The USSR is faced with a dilemma of major Weekly, Page 2 of 5 proportions by these developments in the Satellites. The decision to adopt a tougher attitude toward at least Poland and Hungary will, if it is to be successfully implemented, threaten the efficacy of the USSR's general foreign policy line of relaxation and peaceful coexistence. Failure to act decisively, on the other hand, might inevitably lead to a not-too-distant choice between military inter- vention or a loss of control over some .of the Satellites." 79. 6 October Current Intelligence "Communist and anti-Russian demonstrations Bulletin, Page 4 may occur in Hungary and Poland during the next few days. "The Hungarian party, apparently in symbolic rejection of Soviet domination, has announced a ceremonial funeral procession in Budapest on 6 October bearing the remains of Laszlo Rajk, the former Titoist and 'national deviation- ist' now hailed as an 'outstanding leader of Hungarian labor,' and three Communists. executed with Rajk." 8 October Trade Unions' Criticism of Working Conditions 81. 10 October "It is believed that the formation of a more liberal Hungarian Government, possibly including Nagy, but certainly reflecting a broader political base, may be announced on 22 October. The critical economic situation in Hungary, especially the shortage in investment funds and fuel, will probably be given as a reason for the inception of more liberal economic policies which will include a cutback in five-year plan goals and more stress on consumer needs." Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 DATE OF DISTRIBUTION NUMBER OR RELEASE REFERENCE QUOTATION, EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION 82. 11 October FBIS - USSR Survey "Recent statements by leading Hungarian writers reaffirm the defiant stand taken against Party critics at the 17 September Writers' Federation meeting." 83. 11 October Extract from notes "The Hungarians have, as have the Poles, for OCI briefing looked increasingly toward Yugoslav and--in for Joint Staff at some cases, Western--concepts for use in Pentagon the ideological vacuum created by the de- Stalinization program. Although not as yet restored to the Party, both Nagy and his policies have grown in prestige and influence. "When the Soviet leaders saw that its directives were being, at the very least, ignored in Poland and Hungary--in contrast to the faithful actions of the Parties in the other Satellites--it became perfectly obvious that something would have to be done about their Satellite policies. ..."There is no evidence whatsoever to date that the two most courageous Satellites, Poland and Hungary, are sJ wing down either their push for internal liberalization or their attempts to develop closer ties with Yugoslavia. ..."The reactions in the Satellites, particularly Poland, Czechoslovakia and Hungary, to the de- Stalinization pronouncements at the 20th Soviet Party Congress were--for Communist countries-- no less than violent. Party leaders in these countries apparently were almost completely un- prepared for a series of remarkable and open displays of discontent." 36 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 NUMBER DATE OF DISTRIBUTION OR PM2 ASE 84. 15 October 85. 16 October 86. 18 October QUOTATION, E CRA.CT OR DESCRIPTION have developed to the point where they are prepared to preach anti-Communism on the street corners if necessary. However, they are biding their time for a more propitious moment." "Bela Kovacs, former leader of the old Small- holders' Party who spent many years as a Soviet prisoner in Siberia, is reported to have sought contact with Hungarian emigres of centrist orientation in order to obtain guidance. Kovacs has been asked by the Imre Nagy faction in Hungary to participate again in the country's political life. He is believed to have con- sented. ..."At the same time, there have been presis- tent rumors in Hungarian political circles that Hungary may be the first Satellite country to permit other than single-list elections, and that a Social-Democrat ticket as well as a Smallholders' ticket may be offered at an election in the near future." FBIS - USSR Survey "Since Rakosi's ouster Budapest comment has reflected an interest, equalled only by Polish propaganda, in Yugoslavia's potential contri- bution to Hungarian development through exchanges of experience. Such exchanges have been a con- sistent element in Yugoslavia's definition of the 'new relations' needed between fraternal Communist parties." 77 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 DATE OF DISTRIBUTION NUMBER OR RELEASE PJUr'RENCE QUOTATION, EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION 86. (continued) ..."Hungary has been the most widely discussed of the Satellites in Belgrade propaganda, and its de-Stalinization moves have been in line with what Yugoslavia urged. Belgrade has called for the rehabilitation of Nagy and restoration of his policies; Nagy was readmitted to the Party on the eve of the 15 October Tito-Gero talks in,the Yugoslav capital, and Budapest propaganda hints at some measure of restoration of his program. ..."Soviet apprehensiveness over the impact of the restoration of socialist respectability to Yugoslavia may have had on the Satellites--as claimed by BORBA to be reflected in a secret CPSU letter to Satellite Parties--has been mani- fested indirectly in the behavior of Soviet propaganda." 87. .22 October OCI memo to DDI "The result of such a policy would in the long run represent a radical departure from previous patterns of Soviet control and a significant change in Soviet concepts of empire. In addition, under such a revised concept, the risk would grow that some or all of the Satellites might overthrow their Communist regimes, and/or might abandon all ties with the USSR. Thus, the Soviet Union might then be confronted with having to decide between a complete loss of its in- fluence in the Satellites or military inter- vention in the area to retain that influence." Report on possible reactivation of opposition parties. 38 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 am an of man who has had extensive DATE OF DISTRIBUTION NUMBER OR RELEASE 89. 23 October REFERENCE experience with the USSR, and I have been able to interpret developments and trends in the workers' struggle for the past fifteen years. The recent situation, however, has me confused. I am unable to offer any statements of guidance as to where the present course is leading. 'I have had no policy guidance from Budapest on the recent situation in Hungary and Poland. 'The apparent results of the conversations between Erno Gero and Marshal Tito in Bel- grade indicate that Hungary will use Yugo- slavia as a model upon which. to build the Hungarian national way to Socialism."' 90. 9 November Extract from Status "This situation we recognized as explosive. Report on Hungary given Our evaluation of the situation dated 21 August by the Director at the 1956 said: White House to a bi-par- 'Even though the Kremlin is assumed to tisan Congressional intend retaining real control over the Group Satellites, recent more flexible policies have set in motion certain social and political trends toward independence, personal freedom, and representative govern- ments which may become irreversible, short of forcible repression."' 91. 18 November Article by Robert S. "Dulles also asserted the CIA had submitted Allen in New York Post numerous reports on unrest in the satellites and the likelihood of uprisings. QUOTATION, EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 E NUMBER 91. (continued) OR RELEASE REFERENCE QUOTATION, EXTRACT OR DESCRIPTION "'It is difficult to forecast the exact timing of such revolts,' he pointed out. 'You can never tell just what will touch them off. But we definitely knew they were in the making, and also that the Kremlin would react as ruthlessly as it did in Hungary, and may yet do in Poland."' Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R004000170001-1 THE HUNGARIAN QUESTION 67 RESOLUTION 1133(xr), as submitted by 37 powers, A/3658 and Add.l, adopted by Assembly on 14 September 1957, meeting 677, by roll-call vote of 60 to 10, with 10 abstentions, as follows: In favour: Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bolivia, Brazil, Burma, Cambodia, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Ethio- pia, France, Ghana, Greece, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Iceland, Iran, Iraq, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Jordan, Laos, Lebanon, Liberia, Libya, Luxembourg, Mexico, Morocco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Portugal, Spain, Sudan, Sweden, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, United King- dom, United States, Uruguay, Venezuela. Against: Albania, Bulgaria, Byelorussian SSR, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Ukrai- nian SSR, USSR, Yugoslavia. Abstaining: Afghanistan, Ceylon, Egypt, Finland, India, Indonesia, Nepal, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Yemen. "The General Assembly, "Recalling its resolution 1132(XI) of 10 January 1957, establishing a Special Committee, consisting of representatives of Australia, Ceylon, Denmark, Tunisia and Uruguay, to investigate, and to establish and maintain direct observation in Hungary and else- where, taking testimony, collecting evidence and receiving information, as appropriate, "Having now received the unanimous report of the Special Committee on the Problem of Hungary, "Regretting that the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and the present authorities in Hungary have failed to co-operate in any way with the Committee, "I. Expresses its appreciation to the Special Com- mittee on the Problem of Hungary for its work; "2. Endorses the report of the Committee; "3. Notes the conclusion of the Committee that the events which took place in Hungary in October and November of 1956 constituted a spontaneous na- tional uprising; "4. Finds that the conclusions reached by the Com- mittee on the basis of its examination of all available evidence confirm that: "(a) The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, in violation of the Charter of the United Nations, has deprived Hungary of its liberty and political in- dependence and the Hungarian people of the exercise of their fundamental human rights; "(b) The present Hungarian regime has been im- posed on the Hungarian people by the armed inter- vention of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics; "(c) The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics has carried out mass deportations of Hungarian citizens to the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics; "(d) The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics has violated its obligations under the Geneva Conventions of 1949; "(e) The present authorities in Hungary have vio- lated the human rights and freedoms guaranteed by the Treaty of Peace with Hungary; "5. Condemns these acts and the continued defiance of the resolutions of the General Assembly; "6. Reiterates its concern with the continuing plight of the Hungarian people; "7. Considers that further efforts must be made to achieve the objectives of the United Nations in regard to Hungary in accordance with the Purposes and Principles of the Charter and the pertinent resolutions of the General Assembly; "8. Calls upon the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and the present authorities in Hungary, in view of evidence contained in the report, to desist from repressive measures against the Hungarian people, to respect the liberty and political independ- ence of Hungary and the Hungarian people's enjoy- ment of fundamental human rights and freedoms, and to ensure the return to Hungary of those Hungarian citizens who have been deported to the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics; "9. Requests the President of the eleventh session of the General Assembly, H.R.H. Prince Wan Waitha- yakon, as the General Assembly's special representative on the Hungarian problem, to take such steps as he deems appropriate, in view of the findings of the Committee, to achieve the objectives of the United Nations in accordance with General Assembly resolu- tions 1004 (ES-I I) of 4 November 1956, 1005 (ES-I I ) of 9 November 1956, 1127 (XI) of 21 November 1956, 1131(XI) of 12 December 1956 and 1132(XI) of 10 January 1957, to consult as appropriate with the Committee during the course of his endeavours, and to report and make recommendations as he may deem advisable to the General Assembly; "10. Decides to place the Hungarian item on the provisional agenda of the twelfth session of the General Assembly." GENERAL ASSEMBLY-12TH SESSION Plenary Meetings 678, 684, 726, 731. General Committee, meeting 112. A/3773. Report of Credentials Committee. A/3774. Report of General Assembly's Special Re- presentative on Hungarian Problem. RESOLUTION 1183(xn), as recommended-by Cre- dentials Committee, A/3773, adopted by Assembly on 10 December 1957, meeting 726, by 77 votes to 1. "The General Assembly "Approves the report of the Credentials Committee." A/AC.88/1. Letter of 20 December 1957 from Spe- cial Committee on Problem of Hungary to Minister for Foreign Affairs of Hungarian People's Republic. A/3571. Note by Secretary-General transmitting text of resolution and conclusions adopted by Governing Body of ILO. A/3578 and Corr.l. Note by Secretary-General transmitting at request of Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs text of communication of 16 April Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/22: CIA-RDP80B01676R004000170001-1