RECOMMENDED TOPIC FOR NEXT COMPARATIVE EVALUATION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00904A000400030014-2
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 13, 2013
• Sequence Number: 14
• Publication Date: October 23, 1958
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/06/13 :CIA-RDP79R00904A000400030014-2
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DRAFT ~~~~: APR 1980 R~vo~`~~n: oiesas
I~~IORAtVDUM FOR: Director of central Intelligence
SUBJECT Recommended Topic for Next Comparative
Evaluation
to The memorandum on Comparative Evaluations approved by the
President on 17 July ].958 recommended in order of suggested priority
the following topics:
Air defense radar (now completed)
b. Submarine we;pons systems and antisubmarine warfare
capabilities.
c. Nuclear weapons production capabilities (taking into
account the extent to which USSR nuclear production facil3.ties
have been dispersed, and placing particular emphasis upon
capability to produce small nuclear weapons).
d. Strategic bomber attack capabilities.
e. BW and CW Capabilities.
2. Selection of topic e. an BW and CW was deferred pending
your analysis of data available on Soviet capabilities in these
fields to permit assessing whether a comparison would be worth-
while. The Acting DCI~s memorandum of 5 September 1958 to the
Comparative Evaluations Groups enclosing such a study recommended
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against th3.s evaluation
(see Tab). I suggest that you ask the
group to approve this reccmmendation and delete t~~Fic e. from the
3.
With respect to the next subject for evaluations topic c.
on ecmparative nuclear weapons production capabilities would appear
to have particular merit at this time. Since a nuclear test
moratorium may well eventuate from the forthcc~ning Geneva dis-
cussions! it would be mast useful to have a comparative evaluation
of where we and the Soviets stand weapons wise at the outset of such
a moratarium period. Howevert Dr. Scoville points out that it will
take some time to analyze the data available from the current Soviet
test series which would be essential before an up-to-date comparison
could be made. Therefore this .topic probably should be reserved
for the third comparative evaluation to be made roughly three
months from now.
~,. In view of the current interest in t he submarine-launched
missile threat and in our capabilities to meet its we recommend
that topic b. be accepted for the second evaluation. However this
subject is even broader than the previous one on air defense radar
since it involves a whale series of offensive and defensive
weapons systems and sub-systems. Under the circumstances it
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might be preferable to confine it to submarine-launched missile
systems and defensive capabilities against them.
5. Under the procedure approved bg the President, you are
authorized to designate in consultation with the USIB, "the expert
or experts" most capable of handling the i,nteiligence side of the
stiudy. In your memo of 2!~ July to the LAC (LAC-D-126) you stated
your intention to designate the "best-qualified individuals in the
intelligence community regardless of agency affiliation.n In
view of the subject, I suggest that you nominate Admiral Fr?st, cr
another ~l.ag officer of his choice. (General Twining's nominee
will probably again be admiral Sides.
6. You may wish to suggest adding to~the list of suitable
topics another look at the Soviet and U.S. ICBM programs, in the
Light of the new intelligence available (as well as further
developments in cur own programs). The original 8 May Killian-
Kistiakowsky report to the NSC on this subject is now almost six
months old, and should be reviewed at some time within the next
six months or so.
R. W. KOI+~ER
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