TRENDS IN ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT

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• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00530R000300620007-9
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• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 2, 2013
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• Content Type: MISC

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Center for Education Statistics
Trends in Elementary
and Secondary Public
School Enrollment
IRTAIIMIIPM111?11
Issue Paper
Office of Educational Research and Improvement
U.S. Department of Education
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\-7
This report is reprinted from The Condition of Education, 1986 edition, published by
U.S. Department of Education's Center for Education Statistics (CES). Copies of Condition
are available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402. To order, send a check or money order for $13 and refer to stock
number 065-000-00276-1.
Center for Education Statistics
"The purpose of the Center shall be to collect and
disseminate statistics and other data related to educa-
tion in the United States and in other nations. The
Center shall . . . collect, collate, and from time to
time, report full and complete statistics on the condi-
tions of education in the United States; conduct and
publish reports on --specialized analyses of the mean-
ing and . significance of such statistics; . . . and re-
view and report on education activities in foreign
countries,"?Section 406 (b) of the General Educa-
tion Provisions Act, as amended (20 U.S.C.
1221e-1).
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Trends in Elementary and Secondary Public School Enrollment
by Phillip Kaufman
Overview
Public school enrollment declined across the Nation
from the record levels of the late 1960's and early
1970's as the postwar baby-boom generation moved
through and out of the educational system. However,
their children?the baby boomlet?are now entering
the nation's schools, reversing the enrollment declines
of the past 15 years. Yet, the composition of the
next generation of school-children will be consider-
ably different than that of the baby-boom generation.
National demographic and sociological changes of the
past 20 years will be reflected in the characteristics
and home backgrounds of the nation's school-chil-
dren.
This paper examines recent enrollment trends and
changes in the composition of the student body in
elementary and secondary public schools at both the
State and national levels. Future trends and their pos-
sible implications for the Nation's schools are also
discussed. The major findings are:
Enrollment trends
? At the national level, cdementaryzenrollment-g
ewhichzbas=been7declining-zsince=1-9,79_r-will-be-,
.a.-17-yzenroll3
met--whicli-started-to-deorease_in_L9,7_6. is
projectedzto-rbegikrsisiug-in-1-99-1-___,
? The baby=hoom-tetmvalluce=a7=rriut-h
siffaller=bulgcra-7sTrideiirs) moving through the
school system than resulted from the postwar
baby boom. thtless-there-is-a-dramatic_upturn
(I birth-mr-atES7there -w 111=be-anothWZdRItEri n
renrolime-tithis --age-cohort-leaves-the_pulylic>
li-15?51g?'
? Past enrollment patterns have exhibited consid-
erable variation across the States, and this is
likely to continue in the future. Some States
may continue to experience enrollment de-
clines while others may have large increases.
? The (g, rearestzgairis-are-e3?--it hl-t7ez.West
, -and Southwest Smaller increases are likely in
the Southeast, while the Northeast and Mid-
-*
west are apt to have further enrollment de-
clines.
Student composition trends
? The proportion of minority students, particu-
larly Asian and Hispanic students, has been
increasing in recent years.
? If present trends in fertility rates and immigra-
tion continue, minority students are likely to
constitute an even larger share of students in
the future.
? The percentage of non-English-language back-
ground children has been rising and will in-
crease further if present patterns continue into
the next decade.
? Poor children and children from single-parent
families represent growing proportions of the
Nation's school-children.
? States vary considerably in the extent to which
these national trends are reflected within their
schools. In general, the Southeastern States
have the largest concentrations of poor and
minority students, while the Southwestern
States and California have the highest propor-
tions of language-minority students.
Implications of enrollment trends
? The upturn in enrollment will mean that dif-
ferent challenges will face many administrators
and policymakers in the late 1980's and the
1990's than in the 1970's and early 1980's,
challenges associated with growth rather than
retrenchment.
? Because of variations in enrollment trends
within and between States, there will be con-
siderable variation across States and localities
in the challenges they will face. Some dis-
tricts may be forced to take steps such as am-
bitious building' programs or double sessions
to accommodate growing numbers of students,
while other districts will still be closing
schools.
? In responding to the impact of enrollment in-
creases, decisionmakers must take into account
the fact that the rincrease-may-be-short-liVal;,
lat-least-imahose.=areas-whf-Tgqirlin-arily
1
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the-tilt-of-the-babT-17657--nier-7?Tatliel=fh-gr-rni-
igralion_andimmigration.
Implications of student body changes
? 1-n_rec_ent_years_a_growing_prapornon_ofalre
cifaTiCgis-t-udents-co-m-e-f-ToT?m-giriglaren-t--,
Cfainities.,-from-ffron=
Clanguage-mit7Tfitb-Ezim_ s-7-These-charac
teristirs-m-ay-place_cfrilattaisk"-with--re-
--gfard-to----e-du-cation-al-achievement
? If current trends in fertility and divorce rates,
immigration, and out-of-wedlock pregnancies
continue, these groups of "at-risk" children
may constitute an even larger proportion of all
students in the future.
.-These children and the growth in their number
are not evenly distributed among the States
and localities. In some school districts, partic-
ularly large urban districts, such children are
already in the majority.
? Serving the educational needs of these children
will be a major challenge to the Nation's
schools in coming years.
? Some critics of the education reform move-
ment have suggested that many of the reforms
currently being implemented may work to the
disadvantage of "at-risk" students.
? Supporters of the reform movement point out
that "second-generation" reforms are address-
ing the issue of how to serve students with
special needs.
Data
This report is based primarily on annual data from
the Bureau of the Census' Current Population Survey
(CPS) October School Enrollment Supplement and
the Common Core of Data (CCD) from the Center
for Statistics, formerly the National Center for Edu-
cation Statistics, of the U.S. Department of Educa-
tion. The data on minority enrollment come from
surveys conducted by the Department of Education's
Office for Civil Rights (OCR).
Enrollment Trends
National enrollment trends
Orirtlier_rai ti-on-alrIvel7=schTualr_entalimerrtitetlineth
Tstea-dily---thim:Tirgh-th-E=17970?sdarly=1:980!s---as---the
47arge-j-birth-cohort-moved-through-alf-,
tht-Letucational-systElementary school-(1-7--8)? en-
rollment reached a ttecord7Lhigtrzill--97;--7'while csec7
t 161c----lary.--Sthent-peakTEd_iii711_97:5z7_6,
(Figure 1). By 1984 elementary enrollment was down
17 percent from the 1969 high and secondary enroll-
ment was down 14 percent from the record high.
ment---Will=araTn'betionally7-as-more
and-m-W,e=offspn-ng---of=ihe-postwar-generalib-egiii".
to-attend-s-chool.2 The annual number of births in the
United States, which had been declining since 1960,
began to rise in 1976 and is projected to continue
increasing through 1987 (U.S. Department of Com-
merce, 1984). The increased number of births has
resulted in a new cohort of children that will swell
the ranks of elementary school students well into the
1990's. As-----This-----c5h7ri-ages.,_secun-daryzenrollment,
Local and regional enrollment trends
Past enrollment trends have displayed considerable
variation across regions and the same will be true in
the future. Figure 2 shows the general pattern of
combined elementary and secondary enrollment in-
creases and decreases from 1980 to 1984.
? Enrollment losses characterized the North Cen-
tral and Northeastern States, the old industrial
region of the country, and also characterized
most of the Southeastern States.
? Enrollment increases were typical of the West
and Southwest.
The coming growth in the number of students will
not uniformly affect every State and school district.
Some States will experience enrollment increases,
while others will have further declines or stable en-
rollment. If-the-recent-past-holds-any-clues-to--tlie
fature,?thr"-States-m-trigenerally-wi117
rams-with-the-largest_ enrol1merins T:and:_the_States,
ciri-the-Northeast_arid-North-Gentral-regions---will
Ctintre-tulose-.students.
Based on 1980 Census data on key variables such as
migration, fertility, and age distribution of the popu-
2
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FIGURE 1 -- Public school enrollment: 1965 to 1994
Enrollment
(in millions)
1965 1970 1975 1980
Fall of year
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Center for Statistics, unpublished tabulations.
1985
1990
1994
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FIGURE 2 -- Change in public school enrollment betvveen 1980 and 1984
-A
Decline
Increase less than 3
percent
Increase greater than 3
percent
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Center for Statistics, unpublished tabulations.
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401
lation, St-aterprojections=were-xdeveloped4or-theum,,
bsrr mrdf=-Ke-116731TaTe---children?throirgh?the?year-2000
(Masnic-kw&Pillai571982)7
? The Mountain and Pacific States are projected
to experience growth in their school-age popu-
lations because of higher fertility rates and im-
migration from other regions (Figure 3).
? Although Figure 2 shows that enrollments in
the West South Central and East South Cen-
tral States have recently been declining, these
States are projected to have increased enroll-
ments by the year 2000.
? Large declines in school-age children are pro-
jected for the North Central and Mid-Atlantic
States: 10 to 30 percent in the North Central
States and 30 to 40 percent in the Mid-Atlan-
tic States.
Projections have also been developed for the number
of=hight-sch-0-61"---TiudifOrl'each region of the coun-
try (McConnell & Kaufman, 1983).
? By_=themturnr-Df=the-rce-ntutyltin-zthe.WesternrIke:
gion.,.----19ffcpercent-more-studentswilliatt
? 113F-T-th-e7---y---20007-11Te7--N-ortlia-SIZeigion
w-i41.-vrg--r--adu-ate--30-p-ercent-feWer'students-per
yearr-thurc-r-ifi=198
If current population, migration, and enrollment pat-
terns persist, the West will experience large increases
in pupils. Many school districts in that region will
be trying to find enough classrooms and books for
their students. At the same time, school closures and
other problems associated with diminished enroll-
ments will continue to affect school districts in the
old industrial Northeast and North Central States.
Trends in the Composition of the
Student Body
Racial/ethnic mix
While nationally the student population is still over-
whelmingly white, the proportion of minority stu-
dents has been rising, from 24 percent to almost 27
percent between 1976 and 1980 (U.S. Department of
Education, 1984).4 However, there was considerable
variation in the enrollment trends for individual mi-
nority groups (Table 1).
The number of Asian students increased by 40
percent during that period.
? The-num15-617----ofmffispanic-studtrits_ats_o--ii____A-z_,
crease-dnririsidorablymr(11T37-2xperc-ent)
? TheTh?iumbanrof=biackxstudentYztlecreasedr--5:.---pe_r----,
cF-bWi---F976-"Third=1980:=However, the
total number of students declined even faster,
so that the (propor-t-ion=lof=blac-k-=-studentsin-
Cre-ased--Mghtlyzover--the---peri-o-d
Part of the increase in enrollment for Asians and
Hispanics came as a result of recent immigration. In
addition, a large part of the increase in Hispanic en-
rollment came as a result of ctintim-iedmiiikh-eTzfertility
rates=for-Hispaniczwomen:=8_671=live-zbirthswer=1-000,
,Lw_arrien-ager_1787:07:4-47-17-984-ras opposed to.6.44.-per.
1090-form-.;nonfHispanic=women#157&:=Department:-cif
Table 1
Public elementary and secondary enrollment, by race/ethnicity: 1976 to 1980
Racial/
ethnic group
1976
1978
1980
Number
Number
Number
White
33,229,249
76.0
31,509,927
75.3
29,180,415
73.3
Total minority
10,484,562
24.0
10,318,400
24.7
10,652,212
26.7
Black
6,773,690
15.5
6,578,047
15.7
6,418,194
16.1
Hispanic
2,807,452
6.4
2,825,229
6.8
3,179,285
8.0
Asian
535,158
1.2
585,667
1.4
749,003
1.9
American Indian
368,262
0.8
329,430
0.8
305,730
0.8
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Office for Civil Rights, unpublished tabulations, 1984.
5
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FIGURE 3 -- Projected change in school-age population between 1985 and 2000
,Y t
Decline
Increase between
1 percent and 20 percent
EIIncrease between
20 percent and 50 percent
111 Increase greater than 50
percent
SOURCE: Masnick and Pitkin, Cohort Projections of School-age Population for States and Regions:
1985 to 2000.
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Commereer:1_985-0) (Comparable rates for Asian
women are not available.) While family size for non-
Hispanics has declined, the tradition of relatively
large families among Hispanics has continued.
State patterns. As was the case with total enroll-
ment, the impact of increased minority enrollment is
likely to be felt more in some States than in others
(Figure 4). In general, States with traditionally high
proportions of minority students, especially Hispanic
and Asian students, generally had increases in the
proportion of minority enrollment between 1976 and
1980:In States with traditionally low minority enroll-
ment, the proportion of such studenis ,was stable or
declined during the same period. For example:
? In California, minority enrollment grew from
34.9 percent to 42.9 percent between 1976
and 1980.
? Minority enrollment in Texas increased from
41.8 percent to 45.9 percent over that period.
? In contrast, North Dakota's minority enroll-
ment dropped from 6.2 percent to 3.5 percent
(U.S. Department of Education, 1984).
Local - Minority students and the growth in
t ----eir nilm-bers are unevenly distributed among school
districts. Many urban districts in particular have un-
dergone large increases in minority enrollment and
have sizable proportions of minority children. For ex-
ample:
? From 1970 to 1982 the proportion of minority
enrollment in the public schools doubled in
the cities of Seattle (from 20 to 48 percdnt),
San Diego (25 to 50 percent), and Portland,
Oregon (12 to 27 percent).
? Boston's proportion of minority enrollment
nearly doubled during the same period (36 to
70 percent).
? Minority enrollment in Los Angeles grew
from 50 percent in 1970 to 78 percent in
1982.
? Other large urban districts experienced similar
increases.
? By 1982 four cities?Atlanta, the District of
Columbia, Newark, and San Antonio?had
minority enrollment over 90 percent (U.S. De-
partment of Education, 1985a).
Non-English-language background
aheinumberl-of?Asian?and?Hisp_anic_students_isgrow
ing,and---many?of?these,studentsr.:cume--_-fm--Trho
twhere--English,,is?not?the?primaryllanguage7=Fath
more, many children from non-English-language
backgrounds (NELB) have limited?proficiency
English?(L-E-P), (See the Glossary to this paper for a
full definition of these terms.) B-etween-1-9.76?and---,
198-2---the?number?of?children?under=1-82-.from
primar-y?l-a-nguage
NELB)?increased7,--_-2-773?percent-:?Dunng the same pe-
riod the number of language-minority children with
limited English proficiency (LEP)5 grew 10.3 percent
(U.S. Department? of Education, 1983). Projections
developed in 191 show the total number of LEP
children ages 5 to 14 increasing 16.7 percent be-
tween 1980 and 1990, and increasing 41.7 percent
between 1980 and 2000 (U.S. Department of Educa-
tion, 1981).6
State patterns. Nationally, in 1980 the proportion of
children from non-English-language background was
9.6 percent, but the proportion varied considerably
among the States (Figure 5).
? Several Western States?New Mexico (36.5
percent in 1980), Texas (25.6 percent), Cal-
ifornia (22.9 percent), and Arizona (22.4 per-
cent)?had the highest proportions of NELB
children.
? The States in the New York metropolitan area
also had high proportions of such children:
New York (13.4 percent), New Jersey (17.2
percent), and Connecticut (11.0 percent).
? Most other States had relatively few such chil-
dren (less than 5 percent).
? States in the Southeast (with the exception of
Florida) generally had the lowest proportions
of NELB children in 1980 (Sherman & Sal-
ganik, 1986).
? By 2000 the largest increases in the number
of NELB children are projected in several
Western States, with Texas and California pro-
jected to have the largest gains, 65.1 percent
and 44.5 percent, respectively (U.S. Depart-
ment of Education, 1981).
7
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LI
FIGURE 4 -- Change in minority enrollment between 1976jand 1980
VA
Decline
Increase less than 3 percent
Increase greater than 3 percent
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Office for Civil Rights, unpublished tabulations.
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_
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FIGURE 5 -- Non-English-language background children as ,a percent of the 5- to
17-year-old population: 1980
Less than 10 percent
10 percent to 20 percent
Greater than 20 percent
SOURCE: Sherman and Salganik, State Education Service Requirements Index.
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Poverty
The poverty rate for all persons and for children un-
der 18 in 1969 was approximately half what it had
been a decade earlier. In 1959 about one in four
children lived in poverty; by 1969 the rate had
dropped to one in eight (Table 2). The proportion of
all persons living in poverty continued to decrease
through the 1970's, but the proportion of poor chil-
dren increased 16 percent between 1969 and 1979.
In the early 1980's the poverty rate rose dramatically,
to 15.2 percent for all persons and 21.3 percent for
children in 1983. The number of poor children in-
creased by more than 3 million between 1979 and
1983. Since 1983, the number and percentage of
poor children has fallen somewhat, but remain well
above the 1979 levels.
While in absolute numbers most poor children are
white, black and Hispanic children are more likely to
live in poverty.
? Among poor children,
blacks two to one and
number Hispanics by six
whites outnumber
non-Hispanics out-
to one.
? In 1983 one of every six (17 percent) white
children was poor.
? Almost two of every five (39 percent) His-
panic children and one of every two (47 per-
cent) black children were living in poverty in
1983 (Congressional Research Service, 1985).
State patterns. National aggregate poverty figures
mask the varied incidence of poverty in individual
States (Table 3).
? The poverty rates for children ages 5 to 17 in
Southeastern States are almost twice those for
States in f other regions of the country. In 1979
when the national poverty rate for children
was 16.0 percent, almost a third of the chil-
dren in Mississippi (30.4 percent) were living
in poverty, and several other States had be-
tween a fifth and a fourth of their school-age
population living in poverty-Louisiana (23.5
percent), Alabama (23.6 percent), Arkansas
(23.4 percent), and Kentucky (21.6 percent)
(U.S. Department of Commerce, 1983).
? The States with the lowest proportion of poor
children (8 to 12 percent) tended to be located
in the West and Midwest.
? Differences in poverty rates among regions de-
creased between 1969 and 1979. The propor-
tion of poor children generally decreased in
the Southeast and increased in other regions
during the 1970's.
Family structure
During the 1950's, American families with school-
age children generally had two parents living at
home. Today fainily structure displays much more di-
versity. It has been estimated that 59 percent of the
children born in 1983 will live with only one parent
at some point before reaching the age of 18 (Norton
& Glick, 1986). This estimate reflects both high di-
vorce rates and an increase in the number of out-of-
wedlock births.
There has been a steady increase in the number of
female-headed families, from 9 percent of all fami-
Table 2 -
Proportion of persons and children living below the poverty level: 1959 to 1985
Percent below poverty level
1959
1969
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
All persons
Related children (in families)
under 18
22.4
26.9
12.1
13.8
11.7
16.0
13.0
17.9
14.0
19.5
15.0
21.3
15.2
21.8
14.4
21.0
14.0
20.1
Number below poverty level (In thousands)
1959
1969
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
All persons
Related children (in families)
under 18
39,490
17,208
24,147
9,501
26,072
9,993
29,272
11,114
31,822
12,068
34,398
13,139
35,303
13,427
33,700
12,929
33,064
12,483
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Money Income and Poverty Status of Families and Persons in the United States: 1985,.1986.
10
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vs=te
Table 3
Poverty rates for children under 18, by State: 1969 and 1979
Percent below
poverty level
Percent below
poverty level
Region/State
1969
1979
Region/State
1969
1979
United States
15.1
16.0
South
23.5
19.6
Delaware
12.3
15.6
Northeast
10.9
15.5
Maryland
11.5
12.5
Maine
14.5
15.8
District of Columbia
23.1
27.0
New Hampshire
7.9
9.4
Virginia
18.0
14.9
Vermont'
11.5
13.9
West Virginia
24.3
18.5
Massachusetts
8.8
13.1
North Carolina
23.6
18.3
Rhode Island
11.7
13.6
South Carolina
28.7
21.0
Connecticut
7.8
11.4
Georgia
24.1
21.1
New York
12.7
19.0
Florida.
19.2
18.5
New Jersey
9.2
14.1
Kentucky
24.9
21.6
Pennsylvania
10.9
13.9
Tennessee
24.6
20.6
Alabama
29.3
23.6
Midwest
10.6
13.0
Mississippi
41.3
30.4
Ohio
10.0
13.2
Arkansas
31.3
23.4
Indiana
9.3
11.9
Louisiana
30.0
23.5
Illinois
11.0
14.9
Oklahoma
19.7
15.7
Michigan
9.4
13.3
Texas
21.7
18.7
Wisconsin
8.9
10.4
Minnesota
9.5
10.2
, West
12.9
14.2
Iowa
10.1
11.5
Montana
13.3
13.8
Missouri
14.9
14.6
Idaho
12.7
14.3
North Dakota
15.9
14.3
Wyoming
11.8
7.7
South Dakota
18.9
20.0
Colorado
12.7
11.5
Nebraska
12.2
12.1
New Mexico
26.7
22.1
Kansas
12.0
11.4
Arizona
17.9
16.5
?
Utah
10.6
10.7
Nevada
9.1
10.0
Washington
9.8
11.5
Oregon
10.8
12.0
California
12.7
15.2
Alaska
14.7
12.1
Hawaii
10.3
13.0
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, U.S. census of the population, 1970, Vol. 1 (PC70-1-C),
1973 and U.S. census of the population, 1980, Vol. 1, Chapter C (PC80-1-C), 1983.
lies with children under 18 in 1959 to nearly 23 per-
cent in 1984 (Congressional Research Service, 1985).
In 1984 60 percent of black families were headed by
a single parent (94 percent of these by the mother)
(U.S. Department of Commerce, 1985b).
The sharp increase in the proportion of poor children
is partly a function of the rising number of female-
headed households. Average earnings for full-time
female workers were only $18,088 in 1985, and
more than a third (34 percent) of all female-headed
households were below the poverty line in 1985
(U.S. Department of Commerce, 1986a). The "femi-
nization of poverty" has resulted in women and chil-
dren now accounting for 77 percent of all persons in
poverty, with children under 18 accounting for 39
percent of the total.
Implications
This paper has two broad themes. One is the ,tc-OT-niffg77
[round-Mils-mg public sch-o-ol el'irollments due pri
babyb- oomlet pWricTitienon7---The-second,
is the changing demographic profile of th=eNition--7
studentr- These two developments have bTOT,d-im-
plitAtions for educational policy at local, State, and
national levels.
Implications of enrollment increases
As the "echo" of the postwar baby-boom generation
passes through the schools, many school districts will
have to cope with the problems associated with ris-
ing enrollment. The experiences of States and school
11
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districts already dealing with rising enrollment may
provide an indication of what those areas with future
enrollment increases may face. -
? In Utah, where total enrollment increased 7
percent from 1980 to 1984, Governor
Bangerter is advocating year-round schooling,
double sessions, and other measures to man-
age the "tidal wave" of students moving into
the public schools (Lindsey, 1986).
? In California, the school board of the Los An-
geles City School District, in an attempt to
accommodate an annual increase of 14,000
students, has recently eliminated the traditional
summer vacation and has gone to a year-round
schedule in some schools ("Schools in Los
Angeles," 1986).
One dimension of enrollment increases will be an in-
creased demand for teachers. As enrollment begins to
rise and the present teaching force ages, the number
of new teachers who must be hired each year will
increase from 115,000 new teachers in 1981 to
215,000 new teachers in 1992. Between 1986 and
1992, 1.3 million new teachers will be hired nation-
wide (Carnegie Forum on Education and the Econ-
omy, 1986).
As the baby-boom generation moves out of the child-
bearing years, the annual number of births is ex-
pected to recede again. Another downturn in public
school enrollment will follow.
? The expected increases in pupils in the 1980's
and 1990's will be proportionately and numer-
ically much smaller than those associated with
the original baby boom.
? The responses of States and school districts to
increased enrollment will need to take into ac-
count the fact that in many places the in-
creases will be relatively modest and tran-
sitory.
? In some States and school districts net migra-
tion will make a major contribution to enroll-
ment increases. Enrollment may continue to
expand in these places.
Exact predictions of when and where the impact of
the coming enrollment increases will be felt are
problematic. Such predictions are dependent on local
conditions. Nevertheless, many States and localities
will feel pressures from increasing enrollment in the
near future and some may have to institute in their
jurisdictions measures similar to those taken recently
in Los Angeles and Utah.
However, the surge in school enrollment will pass
over some States and school districts altogether. If
recent trends continue, while the Mountain and Sun-
belt States experience enlarged school registrations,
districts in the North Central and Northeastern States
may still be managing retrenchment as their enroll-
ments continue to decline.
In addition, enrollment trends may vary even within
districts. Areas within a district may experience large
enrollment increases while other areas in the same
district are experiencing enrollment declines. This
may be particularly true in large suburban school
districts adjacent to large cities. In these districts,
schools may be closed in older areas close to the
city while schools are being built at the same time
in areas away from the city's core.
Implications of demographic changes
Unlike the enrollment increases, changes in the de-
mographic makeup of the student body appear to be
a longer term phenomenon. Unless there are major
changes in the underlying social and demographic
trends,
? A large proportion of the children enrolled in
the public schools will have one or more of
the following characteristics: poverty, non-Eng-
lish-language background, and single-parent
families, which may place them "at risk" in
terms of success in the educational system,
and
? The increase in the "at-risk" population will
not be short-lived but is expected to continue
into the 21st century (Hodgkinson, 1985; "A
population in motion," 1986).
Children in poverty. One aspect of the changing de-
mographic composition of the Nation's student body
is the substantial increase in the number and propor-
tion of children living in poverty. Researchers from
many disciplines have reached the common conclu-
sion that poverty has deleterious effects on the home
environment, which in turn has a major impact on
educational achievement (Coleman et al., 1966;
Jencks et al., 1972). Ravitch (1983) has summarized
some of the early research on the educational effects
of poverty:
12
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Compared to the middle-class home, the poor
home (has) few books, toys, games, or objects to
stimulate the child's visual and auditory senses.
Compared to middle-class parents, who (have) lei-
sure time and education, poor parents (have) less
time to read to, talk to, and interact with their
children in ways that (promote) their acquisition of
language skills and (encourage) their curiosity (p.
151).
.Researchirhas-zindicatedt--that=poor=childrenrstart-school
legg---47ENCly-to---learn-thil?r-iffers----and=faltzfarther