THE FUTURE OF WORK AND HEALTH

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i~
THE FUTURE OF
WORK AND HEALTH
The Institute for Alternative Futures
CLEMENT BEZOLD
RICK. CARLSON
JONATHAN C. PECK
cJ4uburn House Publishing Company
Dover, Massachusetts London
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,~. :~ --
Copyright O 1986 by Auburn House Publishing Company.
All rights reserved. No pan of this publication maybe reproduced, translated,
or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from
Auburn House Publishing Company.
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Bezold, Clement.
The future of work and health.
Includes index.
1. Industrial hygiene-United States. 2. Labor and
laboring classes-Health and hygiene-United States.
3. Population forecasting-United States! 4. United
States-Occupations-Forecasting. I. Carlson, Rick J.
II. Peck, Jonathan C. III. Ir~stitute for Alternative
Futures. IV. Title.
HD7654.B49 1986 331.25 85-18627
ISBN 0-86569-088-X
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 ~~ .
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Chapter 2
POPULATION AND
WORKFORCE FORECASTS
0
In this chapter, we set forth some basic data on the size and
nature of the population, including major demographic
trends relevant to considering the future of work, and basic,
largely extrapolative forecasts for the workforce through
2010 used by the Bureau of the Census and the Social
Security Administration. Divergent trends which might
alter these basic forecasts are considered elsewhere in this
book.
Population
~?'he Census Bureau's middle series projections forecast a
total U.S. population of 283 million persons by 2010, up
from 236 million in 1984. The projection assumes net im-
migration to be 450,000 per year, slow gains in life exp~c-
tancy (to age 81 by 2080), and fertility of 1.9 births per
woman. Table 2-1 provides the results to 2080 for the mid-
dle series, as well as the Census Bureau's high and low es-
timates. Major demographic uncertainties that might alter
that 283 million figure or affect work within that range in-
clude mortality and fertility patterns, immigration trends,
the racial and ethnic mix, and the geographic distribution of
the population.
Population and Workforce Forecasts
Worker Demographics
A variety of demographic factors will affect the supply and
type of workers over the next twenty-five years, including
the basic age distribution, family structure, mortality and
morbidity patterns, immigration, the- role of minorities,
and geographic shifts.
More Women, More Older Workers
Figure 2-1 graphically illustrates probable future changes
in the age distribution of the United States, given recent his-
torical fertility and mortality trends. As we move toward
2010, the numbers of women and the elderly (especially el-
derly women) will increase, and there is reason to believe
that older citizens will seek work as they never have before,
especially if morbidity patterns continue shifting toward the
very late years of life (this is due to the "squaring of the sur-
vival curve" trend, reviewed in Chapter 4). However, it
would be a mistake to assume that simple numbers alone
are an adequate guide. Thus far, even wiih a larger number
of older, and presumably healthier, people, there has been
little, if any, measurable pressure on the labor market.
Further, the demands women will place on the labor
market may be focused more on the quality of work-the
form, style and conditions of their employment-rather
than merely on finding jobs. The current trends suggest ~
that women (and men) are seeking to balance career with
family and that the pressure for more flexible working
arrangements will therefore grow, including demands for
company-sponsored day-care, part-time work, and child-
birth leave for both parents.'?4
As noted in Table 2-2, in 1980 there were about 3 million
persons over 65 in the workforce; the Social Security Ad-
ministration forecasts that by 2010 there will be about 5
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U
'I~ble 2-1. Population and Age Structure in the United States, 1950-2080 (Population in thousands. Includes armed forces overseas.)
Middle series:
1985
.238,631
18,453
29,654
14,731
28,739
41,788
32,004
44,652
28
608
2
696
37
1990
249,657
19,198
32,189
12,950
25,794
43,529
37,847
46,453
,
31
697
,
3
313
54
1995
259,559
18,615
34,436
14,082
23,702
40,520
41,997
52,320
,
33
887
,
4
073
77
2000
267,955
17,626
34,382
15,381
24,601
38,415
43,743
60,886
,
34
921
,
4
926
108
2010
283,238
17,974
31,888
14,983
27,655
36,978
36,772
77,794
,
39
196
,
6
551
221
2030
304,807
17,695
33,018
,15,153
26,226
37,158
40,168
70,810
,
64
580
,
8
611
492
2050
309,488
17,665
35,583
14,600
25,682
38,383
38,844
74,319
,
67
412
,
16
034
1
029
2080
310,762
17,202
31,650
14,316
25,296
37,237
38,222
73,748
,
73
090
,
18
227
,
1
870
Highest series:
1985
239,959
-
18,888
29,801
14,796-
28,881
42,092
32,104
44,748
,
28
650
,
2
697
,
37
1990
254,122
20,615
32,985
13,120
26,137
44,329
38,229
46,767
,
31
989
,
3
379
57
1995
268,151
20,815
36,626
14,364
24,233
41,672
42,870
52,953
,
34
618
,
4
289
88
2000
281,542
20,530
-38,128
16,306
25,326
37,850
45,1.2
62,025
,
36
246
,
5
387
136
2010
310,006
22,910
38,407
17,201
30,624
39,318
38,801
80,680
,
42
067
,
7
755
340
2030
369,775
26,562
46,999
20,567
34,190
45,739
46,278
76,854
,
72
587
,
11
417
1
016
2050
427,900
30,940
54,242
23,158
39,085
55,136
52,196
90
399
,
82
744
,
23
415
,
2
485
2080
531,178
37,439
65,466
28;236
47,911
66,393
63,744
,
112,094
,
109,896
,
32,456
,
5,932
Note: NA =Not Available.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Census, Projections ojtlu Population ojthe United States, try Agy Sex, and Rau: 1983-2080, Series P-25, No. 952 (Washington, D.C.: GPO), Table
E, p. 7.
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A. 1982 100+
~~
MALE ~~ FEMALE
8.8-9.
75-9
70.4
6 -9
60~t
55-9
50 ~
45-0
40~
35S
30~
25-9 .
20~
159
10~
5-9
0~
L I I I I I I I I I I
5 4 3 2 1. 0 1 2 3 4 f
Percent
l I I I I I I I I I
5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4
100+
9~-9
MALE FEMALE
I I I I I I I I~ I I I
5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Percent
~ I I I I I I I I I I
5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Percent
Figure 2-1 Changes in Age Distribution, 1980-2080. Source: Bureau of the Census, Projections of the Popula-
tion of the United States by Age, Sex, and Race: 1983 to 2080, Series P-25, No. 952 (Washington, D.C.: GPO,
1984), p. 5.
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 a
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million. For 65- to 69-year-olds, this represents an increase
from 21 percent to 26 percent in their participation in the
workforce. In the years ahead, more and more elderly per-
sonswill realize they are not "elderly" and do not have the
opportunity to retire. The uncertainty of pension or social
security income, and the value changes described in the
following section, facilitate this trend. Hence, greater num-
bers are likely to stay in the labor force-the formal and/or
the informal economy. There is likely to be ongoing pres-
sure by those over 65 to remain working, particularly if
~'~ublic programs or the informal economy (including fam-
ilies) do not provide adequate support.
Changing Family Structure
The "typical family," with a husband wage earner, a wife
homemaker, and two or more dependent children, now ac-
counts for less than 10 percent of all households. Morton
Darrow, in a study of trends shaping the family, argues:9
...though over 90 percent of Americans presently marry, by 2000 this
may drop to 85 percent as many of the recent changes take hold. Stemming
from the weakening of religious, social, and legal taboos, greater sexual
freedom will promote continued growth of cohabitation, single person
households, unwed single parent families, and homosexual couples. Over
the next few years, despite the moral objections [of those with more
traditional valuesJ, there will be widespread recognition of a family as
consisting of two ore more people joined together by bonds of sharing and
intimacy. To these two bonds is added the bond ofcommitment through the
marriage contract, no matter how easy divorce is made.
The prevalence of sexually transmissable diseases, par-
ticularly AIDS, has already begun to affect the freedom of
sexual relations. However, it is likely that family structure
will be more varied, including the possibility of even greater
"feminization of poverty" as more women with low-paying
jobs carry responsibility as heads of single-parent house-
holds.
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The Future ojWork and Health ~ P~dation and Workforce Forecasts
0
Extending maximum life span will stretch out the young-adult and
middieaged periods, probably with less extension of the period of
decline. Longer youth period and later menopause will allow greater
leeway in family planning. The diseases of old age will be delayed, and
exposure to them will cover proportionately fewer years of the life
span than they now do.
Figure 2-2 Comparison of Present and Future Life Spans. Source:
Roy L. Walford, Maximum Life Span (New York: W.W: Norton and Co.,
Qlnc.-, p. 190. Copyright ?1983 by Roy L. Walford.
The role of families and homes in education, including
health and promotion of health, is likely to be aided by the
variety. of information devices that will become available
over the next twenty-five years. Also, the ways in which
families relate to the informal economy will be important
determinants of their role in the formal workforce. Men are
taking a more active role in parenting, and some of the car-
ing functions which were taken from the extended family,
put in the nuclear family, and then into the single-parent
family may be reextended to neighborhoods and com-
munity and other local networks. (Forecasts for revitaliza-
tion of the local informal economy are described in Chap-
ter 3.)
Morbidity and. Mortality
Developments around two important issues related to mor-
tality and morbidity trends could affect the basic U.S. pop-
ulation forecast of 283 million by 2010. The first is life
extension-the capacity to extend life beyond its natural
limits. The second is the "compression ofmorbidity"-the
capacity to ensure that most people live in a healthy condi-
tionuntilthe natural limit of life. Life extension has received
much popular attention, although there is a great deal of
debate about its feasibility and, for some, its desirability as a
goal of public policy. In Figure 2-2, Roy Walford? identifies
how life span might be extended, including our sense of
what constitutes youth and aging. Similar issues will be
raised for work and promotion of health in the workplace
more immediately in the consideration of the compression
of morbidity.
Will the "compression of morbidity," assessed in more
depth in Chapter 4 as a health trend, that has occurred in re-
cent decades continue or even accelerate over the next
twenty-five years? Briefly, the argument is that if personal
behavior and certain allocations of resources were altered to
emphasize prevention of premature death and disability,
there would be significantly greater numbers of elders living
relatively healthier lives up to a point much closer to their
death. If this occurred, not only would there be an increase
in elders relative to other age cohorts, as all current forecasts
predict, but many more of these elders would be healthier.
Hence, they would be more fit and able for work, and very
possibly much more motivated to do so.
Immigration
Immigration patterns in this century have varied widely, as
indicated by Figure 2-3. While the Census Bureau forecasts
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Europe
-- America
??????????? Asia
----- Other
I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1
1820
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
_1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
-29
-39
-49
-59
-69
-79
-89
-99
-09
-19
-29
-39
~9
-59
-69
-79
-89
Figure 2-3 Immigration Patterns, 1ffi0-1970. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Statistics/ Abstract of the United States:
1984, 104th Edition (Washington, D.C.: GPO, 19831, p. 89.'
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The Future of Work and Health
Pbptdation and Workforce Forecasts 27
Table 2-8. Females and Blacks Continue to Be Employed in Low-Paid
Occupations
Sources: Sar A. Levitan and Clifford M. Johnson, Second Thoughts on Work (Kalamazoo: The
W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Reseazch, 1982), p. 136, based on Employment
and Earnings Report, January 1982, pp. 165-166 and 1981 Employment and Training
Report of the President, pp. 149 and 151 ;and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and
Earnings, January 1985.
~~-;sistence of racial problems and inequities for blacks,
~~ticularly in two areas: a disproportionate and continuing
low level of jobs, and unemployment. Sar Levitan provides
Table 2-3 to show that between 1960 and 1981 there was
slight change in the percentage of blacks in higher-paying
jobs. Although some gains were made by women, blacks
and women continue to be employed in low-paying oc-
cupations. "The distribution of jobs in the economy re-
mains skewed to the detriment of blacks and women ... .
Blacks, though comprising only 11 percent of the labor
force, hold 15 percent of all operative, 18 percent of laborer,
and 20 percent of service jobs."6 Brown and Weiner note
that while official figures show a steady climb in earnings by
black males as a percentage of white male earnings, these
figures leave out the unemployed, masking a growing black
male underclass.' Thus, lingering problems among blacks
may worsen in the years ahead, as immigrants repeat the ex-
perience of recent decades: taking over the lowest-paying
jobs and driving a corresponding increase in black unem-
ployment.
Geographic Sh~s
Much has been made of the so-called shift to the sun belt.
Factors shaping this shift include better climate and lifestyle
possibilities, lower wage sates, lower taxes, and other favor-
ableeconomic conditions. These may be the central reasons
for the documented shifts, but projections for the future
based on these assessments a~e problematic, primarily be-
causevital resources, especial y water, are likely to decrease
in quality and/or availability. Hence, the range in assump-
tionsabout the geography of work should be fairly wide, in-
cluding, as some suggest, a renaissance of parts of the frost
belt or rust bowl because of competitive wages, availability
of water, and lower density than formerly desirable areas in
the sun belt.e
Workforce- Size
How many people will be working in 2010? The formal
labor force projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
(BLS) go through 1995 in published form9 and to the year
2000 for total labor force in unpublished draft form.10
Under the middle growth path forecast, the civilian labor
force aged 16 and over increases from 110.3 million in 1981
to 137.8 million in 2000, as shown in Table 2-4.
The forecasts in Table 2-4 assume a steady pattern of U.S.
economic growth, increasing 3.2 percent per year through
1990, and 2.5 percent per year after that, coupled with about
3.1 percent annual growth among the other nations of the
world, a rebound in U. S. manufacturing productivity, and a
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o n' `~ p-' n G. ~'
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fD O "' l~
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a:~R~
~ o ~ ~ ~ ~
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owe ~,' ?~ ~
"goo ~ ~ ~
~ ~~?~ 5~0
~ooo~,o
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tioy~~'~ y
r.r ~ y CD Q C rD ".7 Q
c~'O~W_~ p O ~ y?O.
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A~ n ~ OQ rD ~ =?
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Table 2-5. Distribution of Civilian Jobs, 1962-1995
1962
Goods Producing Sector 57.3
Agricul., Forestry, Fisheries 7.8
Mining .8
Construction 5.6
Manufacturing 25.7
Non-Durables 11.2
Durables 14.5
Wholesale and Retail Trade 17.4
Total 57.3
Services Sector 42.7
Transportation 4.0
Communications 1.2
Utilities 1.0
Finance, Insurance and Real Es. 4.7
Personal and Business Services 17.8
Civilian Government 14.0
Federal Governmegt 1.1
Enterprises
State 8e Local Government 10.2
~I)
Federal Government-Civilian 2.7
Total 42.7
100.0
a .-
V r
aQ .P
1967
1972
1977
1982
1985
1990
1993
52.8
50.2
47.9
45.7
45.0
44.3
42.8
5.3
4.3
3.6
3.5
2.8
2.4
2.0
.7
.6
.7
.7
.7
.8
.9
5.1
5.5
5.3
5.4
5.9
6.2
6.2
25.1
22.6
21.1
19.2
17.9
16.7
15.3
10.3
9.5
8.7
7.7
6.8
5.7
4.8
14.8
13.1
12:4
11.5
11.1
11.0
10.5
16.6
17.2
17.2
16.9
17.7
18.2
18.4
52.8
50.2
47.9
45.7
45.0
44.3
42.8
47.2
49.8
52.1
?54.3
55.0
55.7
57.2
3.6
3.3
3.2
3.1
2.8
2.5
2.2
1.2
1.3
'?'1.3
1.4
1.2
1.0
.8
1.0
.9
.9
1.0
1.0
.9
.9
4.5
5.0
5.2
5.6
5.9
6.0
6.2
21.8
23.1
25.2
27.7
?29.0
31.0
33.0
15.1
16.2
16.4
15.5
15.1
14.3
14.1
1.1
1.0
.9
.8
.7
.6
.6
11.3
12.8
13.3
12.7
12.3
11.7
11.5
2.7
2.3
~2.2
2.0
2.1
2.0
2.0
47.2
49.7
52.2
54.3
55.0
55.7
57.2
100.0
99.9.
100.1
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
NOTES
1. In the NYSE report, the projections for 1985 to 1995 for State & Local Government and the Federal Government were reversed. Thev are
shown corrected, here.
Source: New York Stock Exchange, U.S. International Compelitiaeness: Perception and Reality (New York: NYSE, August 1984), pp. 32-44. Used
with permission.
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 .~
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/01/02 :CIA-RDP90-005308000300620004-2
T&e Future of Work and Health
' ale 2-6. Occupational Distribution of the Persona] and Business Services
nor (millions of jobs)
fessional and technical
stagers, officials, proprietors
?s workers
rical workers
eft workers
~?rdtives
~.~i((~P workers
1t'ei~artd farm workers
(982
Ftrcent
Change
d6solule
Change
1993
16.8
+86.8%
+6.0
22.8
9.5
+33.4
+3.2
12.7
7.1
+32.0
2.8
9.4
19.1
+31.8
+6.0
25.1
12.0
+28.8
+3.4
15.4
12.9
+9.7
+1.2
14.1
16.8
+35.4
+5.9
22.7
6.0
+19.1
+1.1
7.1
2.8
-27.0
-0.8
2.0
-?: Details may not add due to rounding.
ice: New York Stock Exchange, U.S. International Competitiveness: Ftrceplion and Reality (New York
E, August 1984), p. 46, Table 23. Used with permission.
1995 they reverse their positions (the goods-producing sec-
tor has 57.3 percent of the jobs in 1962, the service sector
will have 57.2 percent in 1995). The NYSE definition of the
service sector, unlike some others, excludes wholesale and
retail trade on the argument that they are selling goods
rather than the more intangible services. However, most of
t-~~ change has already taken place in this area, so there is
~,,~ slight adjustment between now and 1995 among the
two. Again, Table 2-5 makes several assumptions that will
be challenged in the following pages, but it does serve as a
valuable starting point.
Job Classification and Types of Jobs in the Future
A critical question about the future of work concerns the na-
ture or stature of the jobs that will exist. In Tables 2-6 and
2-7, the New York Stock Exchange had the University of
Maryland break up -the BLS data shown above by job type.
Pbptdation and Workforu Forecasts
Table 2-7. Job Crowth by Occupation, 1982 vs. 1995 (percentage of jobs)
Professional and technical
27.6%
28.7%
managers, officials, proprietors
7.7
8.1
Sales workers
1.7
1.8
Clerical workers
17.3
17.7
Craft workers
5.8
5.8
Operatives
4.4
4.2
Service workers
33.0
31.1
Laborers
2.5
2.6
Farmers and farm workers
Total 1
0.0
00.0% 1
0.0
00.0%
Source: New York Stock Exchange, U.S.%nternational Competitiveness: Ptruption and Reality
. (New York: NYSE, August 1984), p. 47, Table 22. Used with permission.
The NYSE results are hopeful. They write that "despite pop-
ular notions, more upper-echelon jobs will be added than
lower-echelon jobs.s12 The contrasting "gods and clods"
view of the future of jobs will be considered in Chapter 3.
Table 2-6 provides the number and distribution of job
growth between 1982 and 1995; Table 2-7provides percen-
tages for the same data, indicating relatively little change by
1995. Figure 2-4 portrays this data graphically, showing
that there will be almost 6 million new jobs in each of the
professional, technical, clerical, and service work fields,
providing balanced growth across the job spectrum."
Figure 2-5 is the final aspect of the NYSE report, the percen-
tage ofprofessional and technical jobs in each sector. Expert
computer systems and artificial intelligence will be used by
and are likely to displace many of these workers, particularly
in government and personal and business services.
The NYSE/BLS forecasts make several assumptions
about society, the economy, and the nature of work and
health. Several forces are addressed in Chapter 3 and 4 to af-
firm or alter the basic labor force assumptions identified in
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/01/02 :CIA-RDP90-005308000300620004-2
 r^~
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/01/02 :CIA-RDP90-005308000300620004-2
The Future of Work and Kealth
.0
6
r
ss'ona
~~ ~~: 36
.3
.2
3
an ers icia s
~~:
33.4
3
2.
I
Sa es W k
or ers
32.0
6.0
?. .........
CI '
e c IW
n a orke
rs
31
8
5
3.
r
C aft Workers
2
8
.8
1,g
Operatives
9.7
59
e vi
S r ce Wo k
r er
s
~'?
35 4
Laborers
19.1
-0.8
armers an
-27 0
Population and Workforce Forecasts
~~i~rr
\`~ J'
1~
y~~
ylr
~~ ~
[aY?.J
~~
~
v7~
`
~
ii~r
~~
~ all
i2
t
Figure 2~4 Job Growth by Occupation, 1982 to 1995. Source: New
10
/r,
~
~
4
~ ~
% -
v
K
k E
h
S I
i
Y
k S
U
l C
i
i
P
i
,
et
,~i ~
\
r,
F~
~
~,
* ii
,
~
xc
ange,
nternat
ona
toc
.
ompet
veness:
or
t
ercept
on
and Reality (New York: NYSE, August 1984), Chart 15, p. 47. Used with
fission. -
P~
,
y
'r+~ ~
~fi
; fly
,,,
~
~,~?'
t~ a
%~l`~
~~
~~~
'~~
~~~
fT
~~
~ ~r
~~~
r
t~
,~ ~
1 r4
..
,
,~
~
r"~?
~r~'
`/ .'
r'hil
the forecasts discussed here. But before turning to other
trends in the environment, it is relevant to review what is
known about the size of the worksites for the U.S. labor
force.
~iNorksite Size
What is the distribution of worksites by size for the U.S.
workforce? There is no single accurate compilation of the
data to answer this question fully. What is available are the
data given in Table 2-8, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics
compiled from state agency reports on unemployment
compensation. There are some shortcomings in the data.
For example, employers having a number of similar units
within a given county are aggregated, including food stores
and banks; thus some of the service, retail trade, and finance
sector groups might show smaller units. But since the data
in Table 2-8 cover about 70 percent of the workforce, focus-
~~c~ y0~ d~ J;J' tl` ~J ~!,?' `mss \ r~ 43` ?co
a '~ ~ v
~~~c 0~y` CP