REPORT OF MEETINGS OF SCIENTIFIC ADVISORY PANEL ON UNIDENTIFIED FLYING OBJECTS CONVENED BY OFFICE OF SCIENTIFIC INTELLIGENCE, CIA JANUARY 14 - 18, 1953

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79B00752A000300100010-4
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 38
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 26, 2013
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: January 18, 1953
• Content Type: REPORT

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REPORT CT 1EETINGS OF MIENT/FIC ADVISOR! PANEL
ON UNIDEKIF/E) FLYING (STEMS
Comm Br OFFICE OF MIERTIFIC INTELLIGENCE0 CIA
Jun.lay 14 1.89 3953
I?. C. DURANT
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MD=
Pdrpose
Part History of Meetings of Panel
Part II: Comments and Suggestions) of Panel
General
On lack of Danger
Air Force Reporting System
? Artifacts of brtraterrestial Origin
Tremontone Utah, Sighting
Potential Related Dangers
Geographic Locations of Unexplained
Sightings
Instrumentation to Obtain Data
Radar Problem of Fiutuel Interference
Unexplained Cosmic Ray Phenomena
Educational Progreza
Unofficial Investigating Groups
Increase in Humber of Sightings
Report of Panel
List of Personnel Concerned uith Meetings
List of Documentary lividence Presented
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Tab A
Tab B
Tab C
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16 February 1953
VEMORANDUMFOR, Assistant Director for Scientific Intelligence
FROM s Fd C. Durant
SUBJECT s Report of Meetings of the Office of Scientific
Intelligersse Scientific Advisory Panel on
Unidentified Flying Objects9 January 14 18o 1953
LUR,29?1
The purpose of thin memorandum Is to presents
a. A brief history of the meetings of the Wu Advisory Panel
On Unidentified Flying Objects (Bert I),
b. An unofficial supplement to the official Panel Report to
AD/SI setting forth cemmente and suggestions of the Panel
Members which they believed woe inappropriate for inclusion
in the formal report (Part II).
1RT Is HISTUt! OF
MAUI
After consideration of the subject of ?unidentified flying
objects" at the 4 December meeting of the Intelligence Advisory
Committee the following action, was agreeds
? 'The Director of Central Intelligence wills
a. Balist the services of selected scientists to
review and appraise the available evidence in the
light of pertinent scientific theories.
Following the delegation of this action to the Assistant
? Director for Scientific Intelligence and preliminary investigation,
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an Advisory Panel of selected scientists was asseMbled. In
deopsration with the Air Technical Intelligence Cent er? case
histories of report sightings and related material were
made available for their Study and consideration.
Present at the initial meeting (09,6 Wednesda7$ 14 January)
were Dr. H. P. Robertsonp Dr. Leis W. Alvareas Dr. Thornton
Pnge, Dr. Samuel A. Goudsmit, Nr. Philip G.*Strongo It. Col.
Frederick Co'EO Oder (ME Division), W. David B. Stevenson
Division) p and the writer. Panel Memberp Dr. Ll V4 Herb-
ners'was absent until Friday afternoon, Messrs. Oder and Steve
son were present throughout the sessions to familiarize themselves
with the sUbjectp represent the substantive interest of their
Divisional) and assist in administrative support of the meetings.
(A list of personnel concerned with the meetings is given in
Tab A).
moutzEmE,
The ADA/ opened the Meeting9 reviewing C/A interest in the
aUbject and action taken. This review includ the mention of
the oisi Study Group of August 1952 (Strong9 Eng9 and Durant)
culminating in the briefing of the DCI, the AT/C Nommiber 21
Uri fingp 4 December IAC consideration9 Visit to ATIC (Pwedwe119
Robertson and Durant) p and oisi concern over potential dangers
to national security indirectly related to these sightings.
Yr. Strong enumerated these potential dangers. Following this
introduction9 Dr. Chadwell turned the meeting over to
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Dr. Robertson as Chairman of the Panel. Dr. Robertson enumerated
the evidence available and requested consideration of specific
reporta and letters be taken by certain individUals present (Tab 1).
For examplea case histories involving radar or radar and visual
sightings were selected for Dr. Alvarez while reports of Green
Fireball phenamenaa nocturnal lightsa and suggested programa of
investigation were routed to Dr. Page. Following these ramarkse
the motion pictures of the sightings at Tremonton, Utah (2 July 1952)
and Great Falai, Montana (15 August 1950 were shown. The meeting.
adjourned at 2200.
itaumaLezza.1100
The second meeting of the Panel opened at 24000 Lt, R. S.
Beashala USND and Mr. &wry Woo of the USW Photo Interpretation
Iaberatery, Anacoutiaa presented the results of their analyses of
the files mentioned above. This analysia evoked considerable
discussion as elaborated wen below. . Besides Panel members and
CIA personnels) Capt. E. J. Euppelta Dr. J. Allen 1fynek9 lift'. Dewey
J. Fourteta Capt. Harry B. Smith (2ma.2)9 and Dr. Stephan Possogy
were present.
Following the Photo Interpretation Lab presentationa
Mr. E. J. Ruppelt spoke for about 40 minutes on ATIC methods of
handling and evaluating reports of sightings and their efforts to
improve the quality of reports. The meeting was adjourned at 1715.
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TEM-4.0EM
The third and fourth meetings of the Penel were held Thursdays
15 January, commeneing at 0900 with a twomhour break for luncheozt.
Besides Panel members and CIA personnel, Mr. &welt and Dr. Hynek
were present for both sessions. In the morning, Mr. Ruppelt on
tinned his briefing on ATTO collection and analysis procedures
The Project STORK support at Battelle Memorial Inatitate, Columbus',
was described by Dr. Rynek. Annular of case histories were ditto.
cussed in detail and emotion picture film of seagulls was shownm
I two hour bresk for lunch vas taken at 1200.
At 2400 hours It, Col. Oder gave a 40-minnte briefing of
Project TWIN1CI4 the investigatory project conducted by the Air
Force Meteorological Research Center at Cambridge, Mass. In this
briefing he pointed out the many problems of setting up and manning
24f-hour inetructeetationtertches of patrol cameras searching for
sightings of M.P.?. ge.
At 1615 Brig. Gen? WiiLiamM. Garland joined the mooting with
AD/SI. General Garland expressed his support of the Pane12e
efforts and stated three personal opinions:
a, That greater use of Air Force intelligence officers in
the field (for follow-gup investigation) appeared desirable,
but that they required thorough briefing.
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be That vigorous effort Should be made to declassify as many
of the reports as possible.
c. That some increase in the AT/C section devoted to %POO,
analysis was indicated.
This meeting was adjourned at 1700.
WAX-Ung
The fifth session of the Panel convened at 0900 with the came
personnel present as etumerated for Thursday (with the exception
of Brig. Gen. Garland)*
Pram 0900 1000 there was general discussion and study of
reference naterial. Also, Dr. Hynek reed a prepared paper making
certain observations and conclusions. At 2000 Yr. Pournet gave a
briefing on his fifteen months experience in Washington as Project
Office for U.P.0.?2 and his personal conclusions? There was
considerable discussion of individual case histories of sightings
to which he referred. Following Mr, Fournetos presentation, a
nunber of additional ease histories were examined and discussed
with Messrs. Pournet, Ruppelt, and Hynek. The meeting adjourned
at 2200 for luneheono
This session opened at 1400, Besides Panel members and CIA
personnel, Dr. Hynek was present. Dr, Lloyd 'V. Berkner? as Panel
Member, WS present at this meting for the first time. Progress
of the meetings was reviewed by the Panel Chairman and tentative
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conclusions reached. A general discussion followed and tentative
recommendations considered. It was agreed that the Chairme.n should
draft a report of the Panel to AD/SI that evening for review by the
Panel the next morning. The meeting adjourned at. 1715.
=PAY
At 0945 the Chaireon opened the seventh session and submitted
a rough. draft of the Panel Report to the members. This draft had
been reviewed and approved earlier by Dr. Balmer. The next two
and one-half hours were consumed in discussion and revision of the
?draft. At 1100 the AD/SI joined the meeting and reported that he
had shown and discussed a cow of the initial rough draft to ?
the Director of Intelligence, USAF, whose reaction was favorable. At
1200 the meeting was adjourned.
SATI1RDAT AFTERNOM
At 1400 the eighth and final meeting of the Panel was opened.
Discussion and rewording of certain sentences of the Report occupied
the first hour. (A copy of the final report is appended as Tab C.)
This was followed by a review of work accomplished by the Panel
and restatement of individual Panel Memheros opinions and suggestions
on details that were felt inappropriate for inclusion in the formal
report. It was agreed that the writer would incorporate these
comments in an internal report to the AD/SI., The material below
represents this information.
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SUGG IONS
GENERA
. The Panel Members were impressed (as have been others, includ-
ing qpi personnel). in the lack of sound data in the great majorit7
of case histories; also, in the lack of speedy followoup due primarily
to theinedest size and limited facilities of the ATIC section concerned.
Among the cue histories of significant sightings discussed in detail
were the followings
Bellefontaine? Ohio (1 August 1952); TrSmonton, Utah (2 July 2952)1
Great Falls, Montana (15 August 1950); Teak, Mentenei (1 Sepbedber
2952); Washington, De Co area (19 July 1952); and Raneda
Japan (5 August 1952), Part Huron, Michigan (29 July 1952); and
Presque Isle, Maine (10 October 1952)0
After review and discussion of these cases (and about 15 others,
in less detail), the Panel concluded that reasonable explanationa
could be suggested for most sightings and by deduction and scientific
method it could be induced (given additional data) that other cases
might be explained in a similar nanner". The Panel pointed out that
because of the brevity of same sightinga (eoge 2.3 seconds) ani the
Inability of the witnesses to expreaa themselves clearly (semantics).
that conclusive explanatione could not be expected for every case
reported, Furthermore, it van considered that, normally, it would
be_a great waste of effort to try to solve most of the sightings,
unless such action would benefit 4 training and educational program
(gee below) The writings of Charles Fort were referenced to show
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that 'strange things in the sky" had been recorded for hundreds of
:rears. It appeared obvious that there was no single explanation
for a majority of the things seen. The presence of radar and antra..
nomical specialists on the Panel proved of value at encs in their
confident recognition of phenomena related to their'fields. It VASS
apparent that specialists in such additional fields psychology,
meteorology, aerodynamic:4 ornithology and military air operations
would extend the ability of the Panel to recognize saw mare cate-
gories of little..known phenomena0
laitCK or DMA
The Panel concluded unanimously that there was no evidence of
a direct threat to national security in the objects sighted.
Instances of "Poo Fighters" were cited. These were unexplained
phenomena sighted by aircraft pilots during World War II in both
European and Far East theaters of operation, wherein 'ball a of light'
would fly near or with the aircraft and maneuver rapidly, They were
believed to be electrostatic (sludinr to St. Eames fire) or electro-
magnetic phenomena or possibly light reflections from ice crystals
in the air, tut their exact cause or nature was never defined. Both
Robertson and Alvarez bad been concerned in the investigation or
these phenomena, but David T. Griggs (Professor of Geophysics at
the University of California at lets Angeles) is believed to have
been the moot knowledgeable person on this subject. /f the term
*flying saucers" had been popular in 1943 1945, these objects would
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have been so labeled. It was interesting that in at least two
oases reviewed that the object sighted was categorized by Robertson
and Alvarez as probably "Foe Fighters", to date unexplained bat not
dangerous; they were not happy thus to dismiss the sightings by
calling then nsmes. It was their feeling that these phenoMena are
not beyond the domain of present knowledge of physical sciencei however.
AAPCRCEREPORTINGsTorm
It was the Panel% opinion that some of the Air Force concern
over U.F.O.'s (notwithstanding Air Defense Command anxiety Over fast
radar tracks) was probably caused by public pressure. The result
'today. is that the Air Force has instituted a fine channel for
receiving reports of nearly anything anyone sees in the sky and
fails to understand, This has been particularly encouraged in popu-
lar articles on this and other subjects, such as space travel and
science fiction. The result is the mass receipt of loweagrade reports
which tend to overload channels of caumulicationwith material quite
irrelevant to hostile objects ,that might some day appear. The Panel
agreed generally that this mass at poor-qualityreports containing .
little, if any,. scientific data vas of no value. Quite the opposite,
it was possibly dangerous in having a military service foster public
concern in "nocturnal meandering lights!. The Implication being,
since the interested agency was military, that these objects were
or might be potential direct threats to national security. Accord-
ingly, the need for deemphasientice node itself apparent. Coneents
on a possible educational.nrograware enumerated below.
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It was the opinion of Dr. Robertson that the *saucer* problem
had been found to be different in nature from the detection and
investigation of German 14.1 and V-2 guided missiles prior to their
operational use in World Wes II. In this 194344944 intelligence
operation (CROSSBOW), there was excellent intelligence and b9 June
1944 there was material evidence of the existence of "hardware
obtained from crashed vehicles in Sweden. This evidence gave the
investigating teem a basis upon which to operate. The absence of any
'hardware' resulting from unexplained II.F.O0 sightings lends a "will-
of-the wisp) nature to the ATIC problem. The remits of their investi-
gation, to date, strongly indicate that no evidence of hostile act
or danger exiate. Furthermore, the current reporting system would
have little value in the ease of detection of enemy attack by conven-
tional aircraft or guided missiles; under such conditions 'hardware'
would be available almost at once.
4RTIFACTS OF FETRATERRESTIAL ORIGIN
It was interesting to note that none of the members of the
Panel were loath to accept that this earth might be visited by extra-
terrestrial. intelligent beings of some Dart, some day, What they did
not find was way evidence that related the objects sighted to space
travelers. Mr, Fournet, in his presentation, showed how he had elim-
inated each of the known and .probable causes of sightings leaving him
"extra.terrestial* me the onli one remad.ning in many oases. Fournete
_
background as an aeronautical engineer and technical intelligence
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officer (Project Officer, BLUEBOOK for 15 months) could not be
-'5*hted. However, the Panel could eta accept any of the cases
sighted by him because they were raw, unevaluated reports.
Terrestrial explanations of the sightings were suggested in some
cases and in others the time of sighting was so short as to cause
suspicion of visual Impressions. Ryas noted by Dr. Goudsmit and ?
others that extraterrestrial artifacts, if they did exist, grew
cause for alarm; rather, they are in the realm of natural phenomena
sOject to scientific study, last as ooemic rays were at the time
of their discovery 20 to 30 years ago. This was an attitude in
which Dr. Robertson did not concur, as he felt that such artifacts
would be of immediate and great concern not only to the U. S. but
to all countries. (Nothing like a comaon threat to unite peoplesl)
Dr. Page voted that present astronomical knowledge of the solar
systaa makes the existence of Intelligent beings (as we know the
term) e1ee0here than on the earth extramalytallilmolyi, and the
concentration of their attention by any controllable means confined
to any one continent of the earth quite preposterous.
TRENONTOW? UTAH. SpHTING
This case was considered significant because of the excellent
documentary evidence in the form of Kodachrome motion picture films ?
(about 1600 frames). The Panel studied these films, the case history,
ATICga interpretation, and received a triefing by representatives of
the USN Photo Interpretation Laboratory on their analysis of the
film. This team, had expended (at Air Force request; approximately
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1000 man-hours of professional and savrofessional time in the
preparation of graph plots of individual frames of the film, Show.
Log apparent and relative motion of objects and variation in their
light intenaity. It was the opinion of the P.I.L. representatives
that the ?Wefts sighted were not birds, balloons or aircraft,
were not reflections because there was no blinking while passing
through re of aro" and were, therefore, "se.lfsauminaaa". Plats of
metion and variation in light intensity of the objects were dis-
played. While the Panel Members were impressed by the evident
enthusiasm, industry end extent of effort of the P.I.L. team, they
could not accept the conclusions reaehed. Some of the reasons for
this were as follow/3s
A semimapberical object can readily produce a reflection
of sunlight without *blinking" through 600 of arc travel.
b. Although no data was amenable on the "albedo" of birds or
polyethylene balloona in bright sunlight, the apparent
motions, sises and brightnesses of the objects were
considered Strongly to suggest birds, particularly aft
the Panel viewed a chart film allowing high reflectivity
of seagulls in bright sunlight.
Co P.I.L. description of the objects sighted as "circular,
bluish-white" in color would be expected in cases of
specular reflections of sunlight from convex surfaces where
the brilliants of the reflection would obscure other portions
of the object,
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d. Objects in the Great Falls case were believed to have
probably been aircraft, and the bright lights such reflections?
e. There was no valid reason for the attempt to relate the objects
in the Tremonton sighting to those in the Great Falls sight'
Ingo This may have been due to miaunderertanding in their
directive. The objects in the Great Falls sighting are
strongly suspected of being reflections of aircraft known to
have been in the area.
f. The intensity change in the Tremonton lights was too great
for acceptance of the P.I.L. hypothesis that the apparent
? motion and changing Intensity of the lights indicated extremely
high speed in small orbital paths.
g. Apparent lack of guidance of investigators by those fartligm
? with U.F.O. reporte and explanations.
h. Analysis of light intensity of objects made from duplicate
rather-than original film. The original Mayas noted to
have &math lighter background (affecting relative brightness
of object) and the objects appeared much less tright.
i. Method of obtaining data of light intensity appeared faulty
because of unsuitability of equipment and questionable
assumptidns in raking averages of readings.
No data bad been obtained on the sensitivity of Kodachrome
film to light of various intensities using the same camera
type at the same lens openings.
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k. Rand "jitter" frequencies (obtainable from early part of
Tremonton film) were not removed from the plots of the
angle pass plots" at the end of the film.
The Panel believed strongly that the data available on this
sighting was sufficient for positive identification if further data
is obtained by photographing polyethylene ?pillow* balloons released
near the site under similar weather conditions checking bird flight
and reflection characteristics with competent ornithologists and
calculating apparent "V forces acting upon objects frcm. their apparent
tracks. It was coneluded that the results of such tests would prob-
ably lead to creditable explanations of value in an educational or
training program. However0 the Panel noted that the cost in technical
manpower effort required to follow up and explain every one of the
thousand or more reports received through channels each year (10900 in
1952) could not be justified. It was felt that there will always be
sightings, for which complete data is lacking, that can only he
explained with disproportionate effort and with a long time delay, if
at all. The long delay in explaining a sighting tends to eliminate
any intelligence value. The educational or training program should
have as a major imrpose the elimination of popular feeling that every
sighting, no matter how poor the data, must be explained in detail.
Attention should be directed to the requirement among scientists that
a new phenomena, to be accepted, must be completely and convincingly
documented. In other words, the burden of proof is on the sighter,
not the explainer, k.e-
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WeVAX---1-MEZ-Mat-?V
The Panel Members were in agreement with 0/SI opinion that,
although evidence of any direct -threat from these sightings was
141(0.17 lacking, related dangers might well exist resulting !roma
a, Misidentification of actual eneey artifacts by defense
personnel.
th, Overloading of emergency moo:klieg channels with ?false
information ("noise to signal retie' analogy?aeekner).
0.? Subjectivity of public to nese hysteria and greater yap.
nerability to possible enemy psychological warfare.
Although not the concern of CU, the first two of these problems
may seriously affect the Air Damao intelligence astern, and should
be studied by experts? possibly under ADC. If U.F.0.119 become die.
credited in a reaction to the "flying saucer" scare, or if report-
ing channels are saturated with false and poorly documental reports,
our capability of detecting hostile activity will be redneed.
Dr. Page noted that more competent screening or filtering of reported
sightings at or near the source is required, and that this can boot
be accomplished by an educational program.
G_jreM_.L9EjgjUZZMROORAP}IATIOENnGlrf
The map prepared by ATIC showing geographic locations of officially
reported unexplained sightings (2952 only) was examined by the Panel.
This map showed clusters in certain strategic areas such as Los Alamos.
This night be explained on the basis of 2/0.hour watchful guard and
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awareness of security measures near such locations. On the other
hand, there had been no sightings in the vicinity of sensitive
related AS establishments while there were occaeionally multiple
cases of unexPlained sightings in nonstrategic areas. Furthermore,
?there appeared to be no logical relationship to population eenters.
The Panel could find no ready explanation for these clusters. It
was noted, however, that if terrestrial artifacts were to be observed
it would be likely that they would be seen first near foreign areas
rather than centrallU. So
INSTRUMENTATION TO OBTAIN DATA
The Panel was of the opinion that the present ATIC program to
place 100 inexpensive 35 mmo stereo cameras in the hands of various
airport control tower operators would probably produce little valu-
able data related to U?F.O.es. However, it was recognized that
such action would tend to allay public concern in the subject until
an educational program had taken effect,' It was believed that pro-
curement of these cameras was partly the result of public pressure
in July 1952. With the poor results of the year-4=g Project
TWINKLE program of 24mhour instrumentation watch (two frame of
file showing nothing distinguishable), a widespread program of sky-
watching would not be expected to yield much direct data of valueo
There was considerable discussion of a possible *sky patrol P by
amateur astronomers (Hynek) and by wide-angle cameras (Page). Dr. Page
and Dr. Robertson pointed out that at present a considerable fraction
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of the sky is now...and has been for many Vee under eurveillance
every clear night in several meteor and aurora observing programa as
well as sky mapping programs at the various locations listed below.
Although the attention of those aetabonomers is largely directed
toward identified rather than unidentified objects, no case of any
striking; unidentified object is known to tr. Page or Dr. Hynek. Such
an object would most certainly be reported if found on patrol plates.
A case was cited where an astronomer refused to interrupt his
exposure in order to photograph an alleged sighting in a different
part of the sky. This led Dr. Hynek to say that, if a program of
watching.ceuld be an adjunct of planned astronomical programs, little
cost would be involved and that the trained astronomical personnel
night photograph a sighting of =unidentified object.
The location of some of these programs and their directors are
believed to be:
a. Harvard Univereity, Cambridge and New Mexico meteor patrol).
Whipple.
Terkes Observatory, 'University of Chicago and Fort Davis, Texas
(several programs)--Meinel (auraraS), Kuiper (asteroids),
Morgan (wide angle camera).
co University of Alaska, Fairbanks (aurorae)..Eivey
do Dominion Observatory, Ottawa (mete.ors)?MirbAsY.$
e. Palmsar Observatory, California. (sky map)..--Minkowski
f. tick Observatory, California (sky map)--Shand
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It V45 agreed by the Panel that no government-sponsored program
Of optical nationowidesky patrol is warthObils at the present time,
and that the encouragement of smateur astronomers to undertake such
a program might have the adverse effect of over-emphasising "flying
saucer" stories in the public mind. However, the issue of radar6scope
cameras for recording peculiar radar echoes would Serve several pur..
poses, including the better understimAine of radar interference as
well as identification of B.7.0. es.
WAR IROBLEM OF NUTUAL INTERFERE=
This characteristic problem of radar operation wherein the pulse
signal (of approximately the same frequency) from station A may be
picked up on the screen of station B and show as a high...speed track
or series of dots was recognized to have probably caused a number of
U.F.O. reports. This problem was underlined by information received
indicating Art concern in solving this problem of signal identification
before service use of veryligh.speed aircraft or guided missiles
(1955.1956)0 Dr. Berkner believed that one answer to this problem
was the use of a "doppler filter' in the receiving circuit. Dr. Alvarez
suggested that the problem night be better solved by the use of a
"controlled jitter" wherein the operator receiving "vary fast tracks"
(on the order of 1000. 10,000 mop4h.) would operate a circuit which
would alter slightly his stationos pulse frequency rate? If the signal
received on the Emmen had been caused by mutual interference with
another station, the track would now show itself at a different distance
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from, the center of the screen, if it still appeared at all. Dr. Alvarez
felt each &technical solution was simpler and mould cost um& less than
a "dapple filter".
MIPWNTh CQ
Two reported cases were examined: one at Palomar Mountain, California,
in October 1949, when cosmic ray counters wont *off scale for a few seconds',
apparently while an* of flying saucers was observed visually; and Imo, a
series of observations by the *Los Alamos Bird Watchers Association" fram
August 1950 to January 1951, when cosmic ray coincidence counters believed
quearly. Circuit diagrams and records mere available for the Utter, and
Dr. Alvarez was able quickly to point out that the recorded data were
undoubtedly due to instrumental effects that would have been recognized
as such by more experienced observers.
The implication that radioactive effects were correlated with
unidentified flying objects in these two cases was, therefore, rejected
by the Panel.
EDUCATIONALYROGRAM
The Panel's concept of a broad educational program integrating
efforts o f all concerned agencies wee that it should have two major
aimag training and "debunking*.
The training aim would result in proper recognition of nnessaly
illuminated objects (e.g., balloons, aircraft reflections) as well as
natural phenomena (meteors, fireballs, mirages, noctilucent clouds).
Both visual and radar recognition are concerned. There would be many
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level', in such education from enlisted personalel to commend and research
personnel, Relative emphasis end degree of explanation of different
programs would correspond to the categories of duty (e.goe radar operators;
pilots; control tower operators; Ground Observer Corps personnel; and
officers and enlisted men in other categories)
This training ehOuld
result in a narked reduction in reports caused by misidentification
and resultant oontusion.
Theldebtulleine atm would result in reduction in pubaid interest
in "flying saucere which today evokes a strong psychological reaction.
This education could be accomplished by mass media such as televisions,
motion pictures and popular articles, Basis of such education would
be actual case histories which had been puzzling at first but later
erxplainedo As in the case of conjuring tricksy there is much less
stimulation if the "seeret" is known. Such a program ahead tend to
reduce the current gullibility of the public and consequently their
susceptibility to clever hostile propaganda. The Panel noted that the
general absenc .of Russian propaganda based on a subject with so many
obvious pose ibilities for etploitationmight indicate a pessible Russian
official policy.
Members of the Panel had various suggestions related to the plan
ning of such an educational program. It was felt strongly that
mythologists familiar with rams psychology should advise on the nature
and extent of the program, In this connectionD Dr. Hadley Cantril
(Princeton University) was suggested. Camtril authored "Invasion from
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Mare, (a study in the psychology of panic, written about the famous
Orson Welles radio broadcast in 1938) and baa since performed advanced
laboratory studies in the field of perception. The names of Don Marquis
(University of Michigan) and Leo Rosten were mentioned as possibly
suitable as consultant psychologists. Also, someone feniliee with
mass communication techniques, perhaps an advertising expert, would be
helpful. Arthur Godfrey was mentioned as possibly a valuable channel
of ccenunication reaching -a mass audience of certain levels. Dr e Berkner
suggested the U. S. Navy (ONR) Special Devices Center, Sands Point, L.
as a potentleoly valuable organization to assist in such an educational
program.. The teaching techniques used by this agency for aircraft
identification during the past war was Cited as an example of a similar
educational task. The Jam Randy Co. which made World War II trpee4eg
films (motion picture andslide strips) was also suggested, as well as
Wale Disney, Inc. animated cartoone. Dr. Hynek suggested that the
amateur astronomers in the U. S. night be a potential source of enthusi?
astic talent to spread the gospel!". It was believed that business
elute, high schools, colleges, and television stations would all be
pleased to cooperate in the showing of documentary type motion pictures
if prepared in an interesting manner. The use of true cases showing
first the "mystery* and then the."explanationr would be forceful.
To plan and execute such a programe.the Panel believed was no
mean task. The current investigatory group at ATIC would, of necessity,
have to be closely integrated for support with respect to not only the
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historical cases but the current ones. Recent oases are probab37 mach
mom susceptible to explanation than older ones firsts because of
AICs experience at secondlys their knowledge of most plausible
explanatiens. The Panel.believed that some expannion of the ATIC effort
would certainly be required to support such a program. It was believed
inaPThroPrtate to state exactly how large a Table of Organization would
he required. Captain Ruppolt of ATIC unofficioly proposed* for purposes
of analyzing and evaluating reportss
a. An analysts? panel ef four officers
b. pour officer investigators
c. A briefing officer
d. An ADC liaison officer
ck A weather'and balloon data officer
f. An astronomical consultant
g. A, Group Leaders with administrative assistants file clerks and
? stenographers.
This proposal -met with generally favorable comment. The Panel
believed that with ATICes support, the educational program of 6train
ing and debunking? outlined above night be required for a ninirom of '
one and one-half to two years. At the end of this times the dwigers
related to eaucere should have been greatly reduced if not
eliminAted. Cooperation from other military services and agencies
concerned (e.g.s Federal Civil Defense Administration) would be a
necessity. In investigating significant cases (such an the Tremontons
Utrihs sighting).- controlled experiments might be required. An example
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would be the photographing of "pillow balloons" at different distances
under similar weather conditions at the site.
The help of one or two psychologists and writers and a subcontractor
to produce training films would be necessary in addition. The Panel
considered that ATTCos efforteOemporarily expanded as necessarys.
could be most useful in implementing any action taken as a result of
its recommendations. EXperience and records in ATIC would be of value
in both the public educational and service training program envisaged.
Dr. Robertson at least was of the opinion that after public gullibility
lessened and the service organizations, such as ADC, had been trained
to eift out the more readily explained spurious sightings there would
still be a role for a very modest-sized ATIC section to cope with the
residuum of items of possible scientific intelligence value. This
section should concentrate on energetically following up (perhaps on
the advice of qualified Air Force Scientific Advisory Board members)
those eases which seemed to indicate the evidence of unconventional
enemy artifacts. Reports of such artifacts would be expected to
arise mainly from Western outposts in far closer proximity to the
Iron Curtain than Lubbockg Texat!
UNOFFICIAL INVESTIGATING GROUPS
The Panel took cognizance of the existence of such groups as the
"Civilian Flying Saucer investigatoran (Loa Angeles) and the "Aerial
Phenomena Research Organization (Wisconsin)'. It was believed that
such organizations should be watched because of their potentially
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Fikwa/.`4y Inforlattioa
It ? 4)5 W.A,ST thiX-41114 ifTig4
Ttr-, '11:::"Krt.tr-4)i101,14:11,t7 zrA. the ?;473-vapl
Vfat. z.0.7!F:
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t: IA' 10 al
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TAB A
REPORT OF TEE SCIENTIFIC PANEL
ON
UN LED 'FLYING OBJECTS JAN 12 1953
1. Pursuant to the request of the Assistant Director for Scientific
Intelligence, the undersigned Panel of Scientific Consultants has met to
evaluate any possible threat to national security posed by Unidentified
Flying Objects ('Flying Saucers"), sad to make recommendations thereon,
The Panel has received the evidence as presented by cognizant intelli-
gence agencies primarily the .air Technical Intelligence Center, and has
revieved a selection of the best documented incidents.
2. As a result of its constderations, the Panel connludes
a. That the evidence presented an 'Unidentified Flying
Objects shows no indication that these phenomena constitute
a direct physical threat to national security.
We firmly believe that there is no residuum of cases which indicates
phenomena which are attributable to foreiga artifacts capable of hostile
acts, and that there is no evidence that the phenomena indicate a need
for the re,yisXon of current scientific concepts,
3, The Panel further concludes:
a, That the continued emphasie on the reporting of
these phenomena does, in these parlous times, result iD a
threat to the orderly functioning of the prO:ective organs
of the body politic,
We cAe as exmmples the clogging of (thannein of communivation by irrelevant
reports, the danger of being led by continued false alarms to ignore real
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ill.cations of hostile action, and the cul-cdvation of a morbid national
psychology in 'which skillful hostile propaganda could induce laysteri,..ul
bP:havior and harmful distrust of duly constituted mathority.
4. In order most effecti7ely to strengthen the national facilities
for the timely recognition and the appropriate handlisg of true indicF.tions
of hostile attion, and to minindze the concomitant dangers alluded to
aborips the Panel rerJommends
a. That the national ecl-ity agancie tahe immediate steps
to strip the Unidentified Flying Objets of the special status they
have been given and the aura of mystery they have ynfortunately
acquired;
111 That th-, national security 'agencies institute policies
on intelligencep training; and public! education designed to prepare
the material defenses and the morale of the country to recognize
most promptly and to react most effectively to true indications
of hostile intent or eation.
We suggest that these aims may be achieved by an intLc,grated program
designed to reassure the public of the total lack of evidenQs of iniwc.al
forces behind the phenomena ; to train per,,ionnel to r oiisf7 and re.ject
false indications quickly and effectively, and to strengthen regular
channels for the evaluation of and prompt leatiovi to trun Witationy
of hostile measures
faid V. Berkner
Associated Uui rsitiet Inc..
/a/ H, .i. Rdbertson , Chairman .
?
t?;aliforns. Inst its. of Teohnolog7 Is! S, A. Goulamit
brookhavn Watiossoratones
Iti Luis W. Alvarez
University of California
Ls/ Thornton
John Hopkins University
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SCIENTIFIC ADVISORY PANEL ON
UNIBENTIFIED?FLYING OBJICTS
14 17 January 1953
ILIDENCE PRESENTED
1. Seventyk.five case histories or sightings 1951 - 1952 (va1et-4,0417
ATIC as those best documented).
2. AT10 Status and Progress Reports of Projeet GRDUGE an0 Project
BLUE BOOK- (code names for ATIC study of subject).
3. Progress Reports of Project STORK (cods name for Bmttelle Memorial
Institute contract work sapporting ATIC).
4. Summary Report of Sightings at Holleman Air Force Base# New Ma111000
50 Reporter USAF Research Center, Cambridge, Mass., Investigation of
iTereen Fireball" Phenomena (Project WINKLE).
6. Outline of investigation of :U.F.0.40 Proposed by Kirtland Air Forza
Base (Project POUNCE).
7. Motion Picture Films of sightings at Tr-manta% Utahe 2 0%17 1952.
and Great Fells, Montana, August 1950Q
SummarYROPOTt of 89 sel,ited cases of sightings of various
categories (Formations9 Blinking Lights9 Hovering9
9. Draft of ranuale ''How to Make a FLYOBHPr9 prepared at ATIC.
10. Chart Sholiing Plot of Geographic Location of Unexplained Sightings
in the United States during 1952.
11. Chart Showing Balloon Launching .Sites in the United States.
12. Charts Showing Selected Actual Balloon Flight Paths and Relation
to 'Reported Sightings.
13. Charts Showing Frequency of. Reports of Sightings'? 2948 - 1952Q
14. Charts Showing Categories of Ebcplanations of Sightings.
150 Hodaohrome Transparencies of Polyethylene Film Balloons in Bright,
? Sunlight Showing High Reflectivity.
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TAB B
16, Motion picture of seagulla. in bright sunlie,ht ehowisg high reflec4,7:.ty.
17, Intelligence Reports Relating to U.S.S.R. Intereat in U. S. Sighlngm,
1S? Samples of Official USAF Reporting Forma apd Copies of Pertinent
Air Foroet Amy and Navy Orders Relating to Sabject
39, Sample Polyethylene ?allow," Balloon (54 inches square).
200 "Variations ID Radar CoverageP.9 JAN? la (Ehm.13,1 iThistrating
prating cheracteristics of,Service7adar).
21, Elscellaneous official letters and foreign, intelligenft roper-0
dealing with sabjeat.
, Ovpies of petular pUbliahed works &riling with vubject fartislea
in pwiedicale9 newspaper clippings and book,E)Q
EGRET
SeourAy Lif ormation
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SCIENTIFIC' ADVISORY PANEL ON
UNIDENT/FIED FII IE OBJECTS
14 ca 17 January 1953
MISERS CRGANIZAT/OV
Dr. E. P, Roterteon (Chairman) California Institute
of Technology
University of
California
Dr, Luis W. Alvarez
rto Lloyd V, Berkner
Dr. Samuel Goudsmit
Dr. Thornton Page
OC
Dr 0 J. Allen Brae&
Mr. Frederick C. Durant
Associated Univer-
sities? /no.
Brookhaven National
Laboratories
Office of Research
Operations, Jahns
Hopkins University
Ohio State Univer-
sity
Arthur D. Little,
Inc.
Brig. Gen. William M. Garland Cormanding General,
ATM
Dr. B. Marshall Chadwell Assistant Director,
0/SI, CIA
Mr* Ralph L, Clark
Deputy Assistant
Director, 0/SI, CIA
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TAB C
ritgaSZSZEUEE
Physics, weapons
system
Physics, radar
GeoPhysics
Atomic structure,
statistical
problems
Astronomy, Astro.
physics
Astronomy
Rockets, guided
missiles
Scientific and
technical intelli-
gence
Scientific and
technical intelli.
genes
Scientific and
technical intelli-
gence
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MEEZEMINInal
Mr. Philip G. Strong
Mr. Sterlann T. Foattorry
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Sewsrity Infarnatim
MEAMITEATIm
Chief) OParatione
Staff, 0/64 OIL
Aeting Chisto Sparic:.
Study Crnitrop fIX
USAF
Capt. Edward eT,. &ippon* USAF Chiefo Aerial Phciam:1
Erameho ra
Aunty Fournete
Lt. R. S. Neasheas
Mr. Earry WOO
? The Ethyl Carva.ataon
USA Photo Ittgz-pret
tion labczatoryt,
Anacostla
Nhostr.! interpretn-
tion LehreAtimryt
AneecotSa
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1AL, f;
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tvslgaleal All-,
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EXCERPTS FROM
PROJECT BLUE BOOK
SPECIAL REPORT NO. 14
(Analysis of Reports of Unidentified Aerial Objects)
Project No. 10073
5 may 1955
AM TECHNICAL IN16LLIGENCE CENTER
Wright-Patterson Air Force Base
Ohio
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SUMMARY
Reports of unidentified aerial objects (popularly termed "flying
saucers" or "flying discs") have been received by the U.S. Air Force
since mid-1947 from many and diverse sources. Although there was no
evidence that the unexplained reports of unidentified objects constituted
a threat to the security of the U.S., the Air Force determined that all
reports of unidentified aerial objects should be investigated and evaluated
to determine if "flying saucers" represented technological developments
not known to this country.
In order to discover any pertinent trend or pattern inherent in the
data, and to evaluate or explain any trend or pattern found, a 'propriate
methods of reducing these data from reports of unidentified aerial objects
to a form amenable to scientific appraisal were employed. In general, the
original data upon which this study was based consisted of impressions and
interpretations of apparently unexplainable events, and seldom contained
reliable measurements of physical attributes. This subjectivity of the
data presented a major limitation to the drawing of significant conclusions,
but did not invalidate the application of scientific methods of study.
The reports received by the U.S. Air Force on unidentified aerial
objects were reduced to IBM punch-card abstracts of the data by means
of logically developed forms and standardized evaluation procedures*
Evaluation of sighting reports, a crucial step in the preparation of
the data for statistical treatment, consisted of an aopraisal of the
reports and the subsequent categorization of the object or objects
described in each report. A detailed description of this phase of the
study stresses the careful attempt to maintain complete objectivity
and consistency.
Analysis of the refined and evaluated data derived from the original
reports of sightings co,sisted of (1) a systematic attempt to fetret out
any distinguishing characteristics inherent in the data of any of their
segments, (2) a concentrated study of any trend or pattern found, and
(3) an attempt to determine the probability that any of the UNKNOWNS
represent observations of technological developments not known to this
country.
The first step in the analysis of the data revealed the existence
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of certain apparent similarities between eases of objects definitely
identified and those not identified. Statistical methods of testing
when applied indicated a low probability that these apparent similarities
were significant. An attempt to determine the probability that any of
the UNKNOWNS represented observations of technological developments not
known to this country necessitated a thorough re-examination and re-
evaluation of the cases of objects not originally identified; this led
to the conclusion that this probability was very small.
The special study which resulted in this report (Analysis of Reports
of Unidentified Aerial Objects, 5 May 1955) started in 1953. To provide
the study-group with a complete set of Mess the information cut-off
date was established as of the end of 1952. It will accordingly be noted
that the statistics contained in all charts and tables in this report are
terminated with the year 1952. In these charts, 3201 cases have been used.
As the study progressed, a constant program was maintained for the
purpose of making comparisons between the current cases received after
1 January 1953, and those being used for the report. This was done in
order that any change or significant trend which might arise from current
developments could be incorporated in the summary of this report.
The 1953 and 1954 cases show a general and expected trend of
increasing percentaged in the finally identified categories. They also
show decreasing percentages in categories where there was insufficient
information and those where the phenomena could not be explained. This
trend had been anticipated in the light of improved reporting and in-
vestigating procedures.
Official reports on hand at the end of 1954 totaled 4834. Of these,
425 were produced in 1953 and 429 in 1954. These 1953 and 1954 individual
reports (a total of 854), were evaluated on the same basis as were those
received before the end of 1952. The results are as follows:
Balloons
- 16%
Aircraft
- 20%
Astronomical
- 25%
Other
- 13%
Insufficient Info-- 17%
Unknown - 9%
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As the study of the current eases progressed, it became increasingly
obvious that if reporting and investigating procedures could be further
improved, the percentages of those cases which contained insufficient
information and those remaining unexplained mould be greatly reduced.
The key to a higher percentage of solutions appeared to be in rapid on
the spot" investigations by trained personnel. On the basis of this,' a
revised program was established by AF Reg. 200.2 Subject: "Unidentified
Flying Objects Reporting" (Short Title:UFOS) dated 12 August 1954.
This new program, which had begun to show marked results before
January 1955, provided primarily that the 4602d Air Intelligence Service
Squadron (Air Defense Command) would carry out all field investigations.
This squadron has sufficient units and is so deployed as to be able to
arrive "on the epot" within a very short time after a report is received.
After treatment by the 4602d AISS, all information is supplied to the Air
Technical Intelligence Center for final evaluation. This cooperative
program has resulted, since 1 January 1955, in reducing the insufficient
Information cases to 7% and the unknown cases to 3%, of the totals.
The period 1 January 1955 to 5 May 1955 accounted for 131 unidentified
aerial object reports received. Evaluation percentages of these are as
follows:
Balloons
. 26%
Aircraft
- 21%
Astronomical
- 23%
Other
- 20%
Insufficient Info - 7%
Unknown -
Al]. available data were included in this study which was prepared
by a panel of scientists both in and out of the Air Force. On the basis
of this study it is believed that all the unidentified aerial objects
could have been explained if more complete observational data had been
available. Insofar as the reported aerial objects which still remain
unexplained are concerned, there exists little information other than
the impressions and interpretations of their observers. As these
impressions and interpretations have been replaced by the use of
3
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improved methods of investigation and reporting, and by scientific
analysis, the number of unexplained cases has decreased rapidly
towards the vanishing point.
Therefore, on the basis of this evaluation of the information, it is
considered to be highly improbable that reports of unidentified aerial
objects examined in this study represent observations of technological
developments outside of the range of present-day scientific knowledge.
It is emphasized that there has been a complete lack of any valid evidence
of physical matter in any case of a reported unidentified aerial object,
CONCLUSIONS
It can never be absolutely proven that "flying saucers" do not
exist. This would be true if the data obtained were to include complete
scientific measurements of the attributes of each sighting, as well as..
complete and detailed descriptions of the objects sighted. It might be
possible to demonstrate the existence of "flying saucers" with data of
this type, IF they were to exist.
Although the reports considered in this study usually did not con.
tam n scientific measurements of the attributes of each sighting, it was
possible to establish certain valid conclusions by the application of
Statistical methods in the treatment of the data. Scientifically
evaluated and arranged, the data as a whole did not show any marked
patterns or trends. The inaccuracies inherent in this type of data,
in addition to the incompletenessof a large proportion of the reports,
may have obscured any patterns or trends that otherwise would have been
evident. This absence of indicative relationships necessitated an
exhaustive study of selected facets of the data in order to draw any
valid conclusions.
A critical examination of the distributions of the important
characteristics of sightings, plus an intensive study of the sightings
evaluated as UNICNCUN, led to the conclusion that a combination of
factors, principally the reported maneuvers of the objects and the
unavailability of supplemental data such as aircraft flight plans or
balloon-launching records, restated in the failure to identify as
MOANS most of the reports of objects classified as UNKNOHNS?
An intensive study, aimed at finding a verified example of a
"flying saucer" or at deriving * verified model or models of "Aging
saucers" (as defined on Page 1)', led to the conclusion that neither
goal could be attained using the present data?
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It is emphasized that there was a complete lack of any valid
evidence consisting of physical matter in any ease of a reported
unidentified aerial object.
Thus, the probability that any of the UNKNOWNS considered in
this study are "flying saucers" is concluded to be extremely smell,
since the most complete and reliable reports from the present data,
when isolated and studied, conclusively failed to reveal even a rough
model, and since the data as a whole failed to reveal any marked
patterns or trends.
Therefore, on the basis of this evaluation of the information, it
is considered to be highly improbable that any of the reports of un-
identified aerial objects examined in this study represent observations
of technological developments outside the range of present-day scientific
knowledge.
1 In June, 1947, Kenneth Arnold, a Boise, Idaho, businessman and
private pilot, publicly reported the now-famous sighting of a
chainlike formation of disc-shaped objects near Mount Rainier,
Washington Resulting newspaper publicity of this incident caught
the public interest, and, shortly thereafter, a rash of reports of
unidentified aerial objects spawned the term "flying saucers".
During the years since 1947, many reports of unidentified aerial
objects have been received by the Air Force from many and diverse
sources.
The unfortunate term "flying saucer", or "flying disc", because of
its widespread and indiscriminate use, requires definition. Many
definitions have been offered, one of the best being that originated
by Dr. J. Allen Rynek, Director of the Emerson McMillin Observatory
of The Ohio State University, who has taken a scientific interest in
the problem of unidentified aerial objects since 1949. Dr. Nynekla
definition of the term is "any aerial phenomenon or sighting that
remains unexplained to the viewer at least long enough for him to
write a report about it" Wynek? J. A., "Unusual Aerial Phenomena",
Journal of the Optical Society of America, 43 (4), pp 311-314,
April 1953). Dr. Nynek, elaborating on hieraefinition, says,
"Each flying saucer, so defined, has associated with it a probable
lifetime. It wanders in the field of public inspection like an
electron in a field of ions, until 'captured' by an explanation
which puts an end to its existence as a 'flying saucer".
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