ROWLAND EVANS AND ROBERT NOVAK - DEMOCRATS VS. APPEASEMENT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP93M00781R000700920003-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 5, 2011
• Sequence Number: 3
• Content Type: MISC

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 Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/05 :CIA-RDP93M007818000700920003-2
Rowland Evans
And Robert lYovak
ocrats Vs.
Dem
A easement
pp
The Bush admintigtra~- ~ ~~ unseem-
ly hostility to next week's visa by Lithuania's
prime minister and now promises a hospitable
reception because of t~ v~vords ~ o them by
Vytautas l,andsbergis
congressional Democrats.
'.This is Munich;' said the soft-spoken Landsber-
gis. comparing president Bush's acceptance of Sovi-
et strangulation of Lithuania to the West's selbut of
Czechosk>valda to Hitler in 1938. Farfetched or not.
that galvanized the administration into a private
pledge to concerned House Derrroaattc leaders?
When she asks for it, Prime Minister Kazirniera
Prurrskiene will be granted a visa "instantly."
Previously. the Lithuanians had ~alongrmed
Bush wanted no sight of Pcunskieee
Potomac until the superpower summit concludes
June 3. President Gorbachev might be offended by
her earlier presence. Even more disturbing to the
White House. however, ism re~ n~ foDe I~iis
critic left, whose suppo
pro-Gorbachev Baltic policy.
Closet pemocrat~ critics of the president's
retreats from one promised defense after fortther
for Lithuania wanE more than hospitality
prime minister. They say Bush's poltcY, a P~~
of the White House rather than the State Depart'
merit, feeds Moscow's illusion thaw ~ S
up ever more cartcese+orm
U ~ that voters
seem to be ac~B Bta,h's aPP pd~Y?
But they attribute d to the adttriniebcation's sutx>as
in hiding dirty lisle fads about what is ~ going
on, both in I.itlaonia sad in Moscow. Until tboee
facts becatte aomrtton latowlsdge? ~ Desaoas. ~' Robert
Byrd (D-W.Va.), as chairmar- of the Serrate Appro-
priations Conunittee, Quietly pttahed ~~ a :10
million anrendnrree~s indmpatsabie a1h- m his
high-wire ad the past two years. Ntwiy
politidzed ga>eraia determined to tntdoe
the Soviet presidatt pay more far thec
help could cl>artge the fan of a 4vdecape
that becomes more sltrarded every day.
Bush adrnk?stration officials privately
provided us the folbwing aocaunt of what
west an m Waslringtaa F~axpt for one ar
paesibiy two bargaining xseiorts in Waeh-
~ veteran arms speaalia< Karpov
Hotel. HeHe made h~cameo appearance
oily when Dover of a sort was provided by
the pcesectce of a powprltil mennber of the
Soviet General Stafh Getrcral-M~jor of
Aviation Aleltsardr Peresypkia
With Peresypkin monitoring the giMC.
and-take with the Americans, t!e'>ttlret
Karpov nor arty of SI>rvardnadae's other
awns-canttrol officals needed to worry
that they would be sawed d selbog out
the interests of the Soviet military. 1'he
general set the pace and tone of the talks.
Nevertheless. Karpov was subjected to
severe criticism m front of the Americans
at the hands of retired Marshal Sergei
Akhromeyev, who used to head the Gen.
eral Staff but has lost intluena inside the
military. He is now a Gorbachev adviser
and party Central Committee member.
Even Akhromeyev is concerned about
getting crosswtse with his old comrades.
i'hus, his dispute with Karpov may have
been dictated by a desire to show his
successors on the General Staff that,
though he is no longer one of them. his
fidelity is beyond question.
When the Soviet defense minister,
Gen. Dmitri Yazov, visited Defense Sec-
retary Didt Cheney last fall, he com-
piaioed bitterly that Baltic
had ar>~d from per+es~+oilta. He react-
ed 'wiolently~' when asked about Baltic
demands to Wait rni6tary service to home
duty N the republics.
Yazov oleo made clear that the rttili-
tary's bitterness goes far beyond the
Wallies. He blamed the invasion of Af-
gitawetut, which the military opposed, for
an eightfakl iocr+esee in draft~odging and
army desertioro, He reseltted orders
from poiidcal accntr,isars to danobilixe
Soviet sokbers, mainly in Warsaw Pact
natiorm, to go home and five with their
families beaux there wt~+e to jobs to be
had. Mast of all, the defense minister was
upset by Gocbarhev's oonoesaiocts !ending
to a pro-Western ceundxd Germany.
President Bush's decision last month
not to rills the military, ltueeisn chatmn-
isb and StaW~nts on the igetre of Baltic
independence was supposed to help Gor-
bachev protect his flank at home. What
happened here last week strongly sug-
gest that this policy has failed and.
ftutlter, that it a follyy to assume the
military or hard-W>era qn be appeased at
the cost of (rthuanian independence.
The lesson of the week may go further
than that. The more Bush plays coy on
Baltic independence, the mace it may cost
him in the end.
a19ia. creaca, stmdiraa, (~e.
Harr ~ Orr ' ^^!!
~~. Waan~ngtOn 'r?~p
Th. Wall Strtat ~oumat _
TTt. Chrysnan SC+.nc. Monitor
-ww rortr Odty Nawa
USA Tpaay
TM ChICaQp Tnbun.
1
oa. 13 APR 9V
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 Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/05 :CIA-RDP93M007818000700920003-2
Rowland Eutns and Robert 1Wot?ak
Desk Officer Bush
Geor`e Bush ~s personally ~ntcromana~ 'he
yorst U.S..~ovttt ctnu stnce ~likhati Gorbachev
took over. unpoetn; hq own tud~aent about Ltthua-
w on worlunQ-loud State Department dtpkxnats and
nearly elimuntm` ehe E4ntagon's strategic utput.
Described ate s cheat, ro-i3ush ~natder
as "his own ltic desk officer." the Drestdent ~s
sad officsals to be uetn Brent owtr more
ode chap natioml securtt advtaer.
Scowcroh a act of ratiitary disctphne. o en
n s to tale wit t su tottWt
to strat ana yys-or. ,n-
~. m~ atsUyate at
Buei!'a nftral to utter a word to pacific that
tm~t isadfesrter Pteerdeat Gvrbachw at borne r
sorrier to Yie sa~dsting haMluK of China after
T'ifefemsf Spuere. Retreat from pcmcipie hoe tsar
tttipevwd Clef, That ratttea the prafpett that
BtteA's reedier d Coebeeltev is as fLtwed of he
ceadin~ d Cititn. But the preadent akane deader.
Thu Built a a snlt~ottfident. hacde?an prestdettt
who wateta to gtitide policy himself is beyond critt-
cism. Hie ~ud~tirnt that the profeseaonab can be
and often ace very weay comes from mtm than 20
years to key gow+end~ent poets. But carried to
excess, that toed?eet r disruptive. It is not euy to
tense or even lute-tune policy when the president
view! htmseH ere the desk offuer.
That expeioe stletsce from the Prstym. Defeor
Sec:etfry Dick Clrttey's sotgfd?ttp polieypesdttB
nutflt is nn player ,n the Litlranta etisw. own thgert
.r Neu.. _^ ~-v
--L^!
-~ WYn~nQiOn ? n+r
''? YVell Strut ,obr*u
_
~+e Chnetlan Stta+oe tilOn~tOr
New v~ Orly New -
USA TpOey ~-
r-w Cn~ r?twne
Oen _
she outeane of Gabaclk+rs tout demands m tar
Baltxa ot~ttid very mtacn affect U.S. ara+s polxtes
Similfrfy. asrstttnR the arrtval yesterday of Sa+iet
fotrotpt Miroeter Eduard Sltevarthtadae. rite Conn
nterce Departtrra bed no cSear policy Qtudelmes far
rh! suriple ressun tdrt oar had been disctassed.
Strategy on Sov+et N~+-tech repuests for Tiber opoa
acrd dtgenl swttcaea hr ttttx bees tbraaittd out stone
Lrthuarute trdependenoe. Bush had not tzveaied his
policy bdore ~iie~rardttadee's arrnal
The petarde~t's aoovicme t>sft he know mace thm
anybody one to his adosirebac about boo w pb
great?pcnrer pokoa s oleo at the tmt of hr dstaas to
diieasaetle t~f Prendfot's Pattfdg# ieaeltirenc: Advtso?
ry Bastin That~t tt hies trot y.t btt+s mtsotmced he ^
in the ptttraee d (!~ ib same. Web foeias
sstnatar kbs Town bscomtto~ ~mt?A P~IAa wtl m
kio~er eaem ovs tot sorata+pc ietedecape but poetry
tnu~ d e~eQtaed do nfees6c steiY~mts Quesoaoe.
Stases m the left iw Reape fps. as adiatmr
croon adwer told tta. 'P~I/18 became avdred m
paet{dd via strftep. peroculerly n Afglsruatan and
Eaateni Eur'o0e. and m gtrscrdisW Sower ob~~ves
on START (atrategde aenr trney(. That bets under
Bush's skat. lie thtriks he ktrotes more then they do. "
~1-orktn~-kwl dipbrttata at rite State Department
are troubled by thr cottceritrattoa of policymaking
made the Oval 0lCtee. but that does not apply to
Secretary of State Jaiviee A. Baker l!!. Baker Qecs
to kaow Btrh's iietdd ere soon ere ScowcroR does and.
after tltft. volts aQ ItiletaoB from htr fasei~
seiviee olflesrs. to tt+tetter ht7? t*oeit they diatRrse.
surd edeoeltee~ d idle. m tee Csbofoie e+ieia
wet 1ot4od Bflids tenreported of ~t
utprRe b! *afaot diplotoab Got Bulb (attax to
Geedebav a Wert befoee err wfa aetttfQy strut.
Tbsy wanted to of don a nd?ifetier ttafeldet
FimRinB sane inti^tidKion d Liebttfeia. It Moeeoo
went ba~tond tlrt, die UnitM Scarce wottid retai~-
ate}-~garheps by wit>fheidittg seooame aid and
trade aeeiwoa. ddfy7ttB aanof told err own poet.
posrnB the June stdper9owr eumdoit t;bft if a iteitet
as Gartiecdtrs doonfeoc poiioeal agfeoda.
Balder. awfre d 8ttfr's relleef! to oillirsd Garbe?
drs+ wst>t what ~ 0e steee m tlse Kiemd ere
pewetette cocain. IoIMd recd idea sold. Hut alias
sotrret trvope mereodifd LitJstefaiea boys who will
not sotto m t>be Sant asm~? Bufr ad Bolter
c~eored rhea ttsbde. Tse peeedeot eeDt Garbecbsv
a kttter deernbad br a key diplomat ere '~+treooabh
tGiutb.~ brat It aiPfl-ed uorateoaably Iat! vttb n0
.tattle impact o0 the Sestet det:rton to strands
Ltthuanta's tridepetidettoe.
The sWlMo ~f Bwh's 4etsond trobrT'+*aklrg
e_mbarrasaea Estonian .n
Aix sere Fnda .Without an strafe
analysts, VanAnal Seamty nctl Ktale
wen ro disaAsa WttJd Kelkm's re tatives the
poestbtltty of an N meetutit with him. the
d k otftcer for such matters +its ~n the Oval Office.
.r
e one. crr~ s~eter. rs.
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''d Nisn~ry!~r --~?
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T1N Wall Straat JOUrnal
~? Chnstian Sewnea AAOnitor
Naw York Oally Nawa
USA Today
TM Chicago Tribune
Dat? 3 O p
Routland Evans and Robert Novalc
... ~ Huntin License for Go
g rbachev
President Binh', ztiort ~o sell ~fik-
hail Gorbachev tin Baltic independence
with nothing more than ,weer elk and
body English may be teaching the Soviet
leader that military force can work.
[f so, that not only ensures failure of
Bush's professed advocacy for Lithua-
nian independence but stockpiles ad-
versity for the future. White House
spokesman Marlin Fitzwater's refusal
to use the word "force" to describe
Soviet soldiers breaking doors in Litho-
anion hospitals to kidnap nulitary "de-
serters" may give Gorbachev all the
Iwuiing room he needs to block inde-
pendence for years.
That would taint U.S. values, crip-
pling both the human rights and the
self-determination of a people whose
claim that they were uNawfully absorb-
ed by the Soviet Union has been af-
firmed~ by every U.S. administration
since 1940. Bush's restraint may kid
him into a cut de sac, giving the Soviet
president new leverage and nralong it
far more difficult to switch to a serious
independence strategy.
Gorbachev managed to avoid per.
sonal blame for the bbody trWitae~
force used by Soviet troops in the
Georgian capital of Tbilisi last April 9.
The culprit named is the Soviet press
(but never comPktely- accepted by the
Soviet establdrmdrt) for sending m
sokhers with sharpetred shovels was
l,ommunn;t hard-liner Yegor Ligschev.
Thi; tame, however, Gorbachev can-
not escape responsibility for authoriz-
ing what .any rational person wouM call
"force": Soviet soldiers spilling blood
and bashing head; a; they dragged two
dozen Lithuanian de~Crters otf to pris-
on or maybe Siberia.
When the Western powers, led by the
Urated States, failed to denounce this as
the act of force it was. Gorbachev could
assume he was operating well within the
good~cotiduct guidelines Privately laid
down by Hush and Secretary of State
lames A. Baker ~. Whatever confideo-
riot warnings Bush and Baker may have
whispered to Gorbachev and Foreign
Any clash can be
the lighted match in
an explosive mix.
Minister Eduard Shevardnadze, the So-
vier ksdess got two clear signals from
Wall~hingWn's failure to issue a public
Pry this week.
The ticat signal is that the United
States an talents "not aaly talks but
tads." ad desaiibed by The Paet in its
lad editorial an Wednesday. That im-
poded "a spectrtmr of irmrwee pcrs
aces far whist Lithuania had ra
match," the newspaper added.
Watss for the oaruageoud Lithuanian
leaders, who must now be aware that
~9 ~ iat might end up in Siberia. m
the selxind signal from the White House.
By not sQamiog, the United States in
effect ioEonned Gorbachev that he can
take as mach time as he wants to
strangle atdepertdence le its crib.
He can let Lithuania's breakaway et
fort fester for months, without resorting
to tanks and guns. He pan ~-ontrne ~n
infinite number of ways to provoke Lith-
uanians of Russian background into con-
frontations Knth ethnic Lithuanians. Any
such clash can be the lighted match in an
explosive mix. That ensures i~foscow's
control of the political battlefield, not
only in Lithuania but in Estonia and
Iatvia, both of which will soon be declaz-
leg their own independence.
In Con ss admirers of Geor
wanted im to s e out a
tout 'cy ' orbachev resorted to
once. " e s oWd rattle thew cage and
matte them know the will a rue"
in economic ea s or arms control trea-
tres, n. avi ren ( kla.i. chair-
man o t e to rite ence ~om-
mnttee. to us. s week's silence
killed env such ooiicy.
State Department officials, defend-
ing kid-glove handling of Gorbachev's
truculence. have said Baker specifically
suggested to Shevardnadze last fall
that Gorbsclrev might firs it easier to
yield as indeperrdemx if a Lithuanian
referendiun proved strong support for
indtppdence. But the secretary has
not Pressed that wise proposal Publicly,
preaunably for fear of antagonizing
Gorbachev. However, it could become
a tool for negotiations.
But now that Gorbachev has been
given a hunting liatiae by his fellow
superpower, he may use it N ways Bush
and Balder never intended. The longer he
is free to make hid ova rules about his
newly disooYered denroaacy and free-
dan. the harder n wiU be to stop him.
e read, c,.w, sdirare. Inc.
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''e 'VAhY irk ^~d3
the +~asrlingtOn 'Imp_
Th. Well Str.st Journal
TM Chrletlan Sclenp Morntor
N.w cork Oelly ~ _
USA Today
TM Ch 0 Tribune
N. ~03- /S
o.t. / z M~11~ 9 0
BY ROWLAND EYANS AND ROBERT NOVAK
~~~
WHAT really steamed De-
fense Secretary Dick
Cheney about CIA Director
William Webster's bland
testimony on Capitol Hill
ruling out any Soviet
strategic switch to a mili-
tary buildup it Mikhail
Gorbachev is replaced -
or possibly even on order
from Gorbachev himself -
was the CIA's tailtue to
send Webster's statements
to Cheney for his com-
menu ahead of dine.
A key Pentagon official
said privately that al-
though the CIA claims to
have made Webstelr's all-
is-weU testimony avaibble
to both Defense and' State.
it never got close to the sec-
eetary`s desk.
Yet the thrust of N-eb-
ster's words was to make
Cheney's job o[ selling the
de~enre b1U to Congress all
b~ impossible.
1b the State Department.
VY+~r was aayWg what
t!N diplomats wasted to
But although Cheney and
hart abler are not betting on
any sudden Soviet arms
snrgs, they deeply believe
tt,ppaa~i every time the UNted
itatss tries to goer the [~-
tuse of Soviet policy big
mistakes are madam
It President Barb has to
esr. G'henei- wain K W be
an the side of caution.
Pepe
.:~`
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 Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/05 :CIA-RDP93MOO7818OOO7OO92OOO3-2
Rowland E,t~ans and Robert ~ti'oLak
Gorbachev's Procrastination
Eor two years Mikhail Gorbachev ignored advice
that he order the Soviet army to quell ethnic warfare
m the Transcaucasus, a delay suggesting that pro-
crastinauon under pressure is a possibly cnppung
weakness in the Soviet leader's worst time of
adversity.
The 1988 advice to move swiftly against ethitic
disorder came from several key advisers. including
Akxaitder Yakovlev, at the first hint of trouble m
Nagorno-Karabakh. That is the Armenian enclave
surrounded by Azerbaijan. When Gorbachev protest-
ed that sending the army would raise "a lot of new
problems," he was told that "you are going to have
all thoee new problems aicyvvay."
The Soviet leader chase to wait and hope the
problem would go away, a choice that has now
prtrved to be disastrous. [t has converted what rriigM
well have been a brief, perhaps bloodless. 1988
intervention into serious 1990 warfue. It has posed
new questions as to whether he has the political shall
and subtlety to solve the more difficult and far more
dangerous problem of Baltic indepentdence.
Procrastination is a curious charge against the
Soviet reformer who was praised as "a man with iron
teeth" by stony-faced Andrei Gromyko when he led
the phalanx baddng Gorbachev for Communist Party
leader in ].985.One Soviet said: "Pastponitig coiifroo-
lotions is Gorbachev's tactic only when drastic action
is required. Moving our troops to the Transcaucaaua
with orders to shoot was a drastic action."
in dawdling over what he led the world to believe
would be free~ntiarket economic t'efoctrm, antes coif
sndered the heart of perestroin, Guebsr~arv strddertly
cartie up faz shad of expectations. That intimated his
most refazrn-minded folb~w~ers, Just as other anti-
Gorbachev 6ctioot-~GKat Rua~n dfauvi~ts who
warn a cracLdown in the Btltics and hard-line
StaWiiets who lortlne glasrpst-are oornni~ted to
replacing him witlt aoe of that own. so m Gorbachev
under fire tram vatppord reforn>ers who aocaree him
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The Wasf~ington ' mee
Thy Wei Strs?~t Joumst
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Netiv yorlt Ov1y News
USA Today
TM Chitag0 TnbuM
o,t. Z ~ J A Z~ o
~f lacking conviction and fellow-through in tus prom-
ise to revolutionue the So~et conunand economy.
The question here is not whether Gorbachev lacks
the ruthlessness to carry out tus policies. But Bush
admiustration officials say that tit trying to polish up
tus credentials for the Ucuted States and otf;er
utdustrialized democracies, he feared that using force
would cost him essential econorruc help.
Thus, when he belatedly intervened in the Trans-
catuasus, he treed at first to get away with using
army reserves, perhaps to impress on the Wtute
House that this was Wee sending the National Guard
to Little Rock. But judging from the plethora of
official U.S. statements here trumpeting that the
United States uriderstarida and approves Gorba-
chev's use of force to maintain law and order, he had
little to worry about from the White House. He got
carte blanche, so much so that he may think he can
use force wlimever he wants.
With the army dispatched to smash the rebellion,
Gorbachev shows rio hint of worry about bloodshed.
Advisin him on how to sack down is Vladimir
cov, a lee a nt in uda eat diuin the
s ressnon o t e tin anion m
and the man Gorbachev lead to head the
p~ttin? rebellions " a Bush administration
official told us. "Kryircfiov is an expert "
in the Wallies, procrastination may be less an
answer to Gorb~chev's fluctuating policy than retreat
under pressure from courageous Baltic patriots de-
manding areturn at their political freedom. But the
Baltic inideperidenice movement has now been irre-
trievably affected by civil war in Azerbaijan, though
o~iiSal opinions differ in what way.
One school believes that the overwhelming rt>Vi-
tart' face ki8ing Aaeris is sending an unrriietakable
signal to the Baltira: Watch ic, or you will get the
same. More probable is the opposite: Gorbocliev's
preacc'upation with the Tranmcaucaairs crisis he failed
to stop an time gives Baltic leaders more latitude to
move faster on independence.
e isao. crawr. s,~rrr. cec.
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Rowland E'c?ans and Robert .1~orak
Right-Wing Anger
at Gorbachev
There has been whispering in the
Bush administration by some officials,
including Secretary of State James A.
Baker II[, about the possible removal
of Mikhail Gorbachev by right-wing
Russian chauvinists. It stems from a
dramatic moment during a secret
meeting held Jan. 11 in Estonia's
capital of Tallinn.
Vot one ethnic Estonian was pre-
;ent at this meeting of Russians who
live in the Baltic Mate, enjoying spe-
cial privileges not available to the
native people. They were in an ugly
mood, outraged by the unexpected
equivocation on Baltic independence
displayed by ~,urbachev, then visiting
neighboring Lithuania.
Yevgeny Kogan, a Russian chauvin-
ist an on tine res~ en o a inn,
"was rest in e was as r
nor wet er auman or c ev
s ou not remov rom ower
because a is an a ent o t e
ogan a fitter oe -n pen ens
as Estonia's leadin su orter of
oscow, not give the reply. It
came from a cro r: a spon-
taneous eruption of applause that
flooded the hall for a full minute.
Shocked by the question and the
reaction, Kogan replied that only "a
court of law could decide a matter of
treason. There was not a word of
rebuttal or anY defense of Gorbachev.
From Armenia and Aaerbaijan to
the Baltic states. Russian nationalists
who oppose secession from the Soviet
Union and were shocked by the loss
of Eastern Europe tie creating a
political earthquake that could topple
Gorbachev. "They think he squan-
dered the Eastern Europe buffer
states." says. a Bush adviser. They
put the cost of those states'at ZD
million Russian lives in World War II,
and they don't like it."
Baker and President Buah are
spending anxious hours as they con-
template whether Gorbachev can car
tinue to exert enough real power to
make and enforce tough decisions for
perestroika until, as they hope, the
flow changes and starts running in his
favor. But optimism is fading. The
prevailing reaction here is that Gor-
bachev suffered serious reversals
with his flawed trip to Lithuania and
his belated, unsuccessful attempt to
end bloody ethnic warfare between
Armenians and Azeris.
Gorbachev is the first Soviet leader
since Lenin who never served in a
Soviet republic peopled by ethnic
non-Slavs. As a result, claim critics.
he never has fully understood the
hatred against Russians not only in
Moldavia and the three Baltic Mates
annexed in the Hitler-Stalin Parc of
1939 but also in the Ukraine, Georgia
and the Transcaucasian states of Ar-
menia and Azerbaijan.
But Gorbachev also is said to lack
appreciation of the virulence of Great
Russian chauvinism. Ethnic Russians
kwk down an non-Ruaian Soviet dti-
zena, regarding them as an inferior
brad.
It was against this background that
Gorbachev performed his stunning re-
verser) on Baltic independence. When
he announced Dec. Z6 his intention to
visit Lithuania, be assitiikd demands
there for an independent Comatunist
Party and an iudependentt country. In
telling an enkrgency meeting of the
Soviet Central Committer that "the
current W~ and state leadership will
not permit the breakup aE the federal
state," he tossed arannd sucfi incendi-
ary concepts as "secession," "illegiti-
macy" and "disintegration of the So-
viet Union."
What antagonized the Russian
chauvinists in Estonia and elsewhere
was his apparent retreat three weeks
later on the scene in Lithuania. He
promised to "accelerate the drafting
and passing of a !aw [for[ the with-
'M New ~or+t 'imp
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TM Christian SCNnos Monitor
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draws) of a constituent republic from
the Soviet Union and for its selb
determination.... I promise it will be
developed".
To the Great Russians, that looked
like the beginning of the end of per-
manent union. [n the vicious cycle of
violence between the Armenians and
the Azeris that broke out almost two
years ago. Russian nationalists fa-
vored immediate, heavy military in-
tervention, using whatever force w:ts
needed to quell the disturbances. G?r-
bachev deferred action, sendinK
troops to the Transcaucasus only last
week.
Of all the threats Mikhail Gorba-
chev now faces. possible attack from
outraged Russian patriot, is becom-
ing the most dangerous. The danger
will heighten as pressure for the dis-
solution of the Soviet Union grow,
more intense.
?1990. Crcaton SynAi.ate, rnr
Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/05 :CIA-RDP93M007818000700920003-2
 Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/05 :CIA-RDP93M007818000700920003-2
D.C. fears Russian nationalists
might target Corby for
assassination
' BY ROWLAND EVANS
AND ROBERT NOVAK
WHISPERID back-
stage talk in the
Bush administration
by officials up to and in-
cluding Secretary of State
James A. Baker about the
possible assassination of
Mikhail Gorbachev at the
hands of right-wing Rus-
sian chauvinists is made
understandable by a dra?
matic moment during a sr
cret meeting held Jan. li is
Estonia's capital Talllttn.
Not one ethnic EstoNan
was present at this meeting
of Russians who Uve la life.
Baltic state, enjoying spe?
cial privileges not available
to the active stock
They were in an ugly
mood. outraged by the
unexpected equivocation on
Baltic independence dL?
played by Mikhail Gorba?
chev, then visiting neigh-
boring Lithuania
Yevgeny Kogan, a Rus-
sian chauvinist but a long-
time resident of Talliru>.
was presiding. He wa3,
asked fro
w~tether airman Gorba? _
sh not '
move nm Dower be? .
cause is u 'aa event of tea
Kogan. a hilts' toe d tadr
pendence as Fstania's Msd-
ing supporter of Idoscow.
did not give the rs~gr. It
came from the crowded
floor. a spontaneous eetats
lion of applaues that
flooded the hall for a tall
minute.
Shocked by the question
and the reaction. Kogan re-
plied that oNy "a court of
law" could decide a matter
of treason. There was not a
word of re4nittal or any dr
tense of Gorbachev.
F4'om Armenia and Azer?
baijan to the Baltic states.
Russian nationalists who
oppose secession from the
Soviet Union and who were
shocked by the loss of East?
ern Europe are producing a
political earthquake that
could topple Gorbachev.
"They think he squan?
dered the Eastern Europe
butter states," says a Bush
adviser. '"They put the cost
of those states at 20 million
Russian lives in World War
II, and they don't like it"
Baker and President
Bush are spending anxious
hours a. they contemplate
whether Gorbachev can
continue to exert enough
real power to make and en?
torte tough decisions for
perestroika until. as they
hope, the flow changes and
starts running in his favor.
But optimism is fading
The prevailing reaction in
Washington is that Gorba?
chew suffered serious rever?
sale with his flawed trip to
Lithuania and his belated,
tatsacosssful atterrrpt to errd
bkxxly ethnic warfare br
tween Aemenians and
Awes.
Gorbachev is the first
Soviet lesdse since Lenin
wbo ewer served in a non-
R
u
~
d
aa _ 9ovtet republic
p
e
o
p
~
$lava
As a rMUIR claim critics
he never has tally undw-
stood tM hatred against
Rttsslaos not oNy in Mokla-
via std the three Baltic
states anrre~eed in the Hit?
ler-italin Pact of 19Sf but
aLo In the Ukraiers, Geor-
gia sad tlre'hanscaucasiaa
moo[ Armenia and Azar
Hut Gorbachw also is
said to lack appreciation of
the virulence of Greater
Russian chauvinism. Eth-
nic Russians look down on
non?Russiaa Soviet citizens.
to them as as in-
It was against this back-
ground that Gorbachev per?
formed his stunning rever?
sal on Baltic indppndence.
When he first announced
Dec. Zet his intention to visit
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H.. rorr o.w Me1re
Us,~ TOee~r
TM Crweap Tntwne
Lithuania. he assailed de-
mands then for an inde?
pendent Communist Party
and an independent co~n-
tt'Y
In telling an emergency
meeting of the Soviet Cen?
tral Committee that "the
current party and state
leadership will not permit
the breakup of the federal
state," he tossed around
such incendiary concepts
as "secession." "illegitima-
cy," "breakup" and "disinte-
gration of the Soviet
Union"
What antagonized the
Russian chauvinists in Es?
tonia.apd elsewhere was his
apparent retreat three
weeks later on the scene in
Lithuania.
He promised to "acceler?
ate the drafting and pass-
ing of a law [tor] the with-
drawal of a constituent re-
public from the Soviet
Union and for its self?deter?
urination ... I promise it
will be developed"
To the Great Russians,
that looked like the begin-
ning of the end of perma-
nent union.
In the vicious cycle of vio-
fence between the Armr
mans and the Avers that
broke out almaet two years
ago. Rusdan nationalists
favored immediate. heavy
mWtary intervention, using
whatever torte was needed
to quell the disturbances.
Gorbachev deferred action,
sending troops to the
Transcaucusus oNy last
week.
Of all the threats Mikhail
Gorbachev now laces, pos?
Bible attack from the out?
raged Russian patriots is
becoming the most danger-
ous. The danger will
heighten as pressure for the
dissolution of the Soviet
Union grnws more intense.
Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/05 :CIA-RDP93M007818000700920003-2
 Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/05 :CIA-RDP93M007818000700920003-2
GORBACNEV JEERED
AT MAY DAY RALLY
Kremlin's Leaders Astounded
as Protesters Shake Fists
By BILL KELLER
Special io The New York Times
MOSCOW, May 1 -President Mi-
khail S. Gorbachev and the Kremlin
leadership were jeered today by
throngs of protesteFs who were allowed
to march through Red Square at the
end of the annual May Day parade.
The Soviet leaders watched in evi-
dent amazement from the top of
Lenin's mausoleum as a shouting, fist-
shaking column milled underneath
waving banners that condemned the
Communist Party and the K.G.B., and
supported Lithuania's declaration of
independence.
Chants of "Resignl" and "Shame!"
were largely drowned out by the blare
of parade music, but foreign visitors
who watched from the reviewing stand
said they could clearly hear the shriek
of hoots and whistles that rose up from
the cobblestoned square as Mr. Gorba-
chev led the others off the mausoleum
after enduring 25 minutes of protest.
It was the first time the May. Day
demonstration, traditlonally an orches-
trated show of worker solidarity, had
been opened to unottlcial organiza-
bons, and several of the Kremlin ofti-
cials seemed startled at the vehe-
mence of the angry display.
The countries of Eastern Europe
marked the first May Day since they
emerged from Communist rule without
public parades and speeches, concen-
trating largely on private pursuits like
picnics and shopping.
In Moscow, the tone of the hourimtg
official demonstration that opetted the
parade was almost as striking as the
unofficial protest.
Organized by Moser tratde unions.
it became ashow otblue-collar concxrn
about the threats to their security that
might come with a market economy.
The banners and speeches warned
against unemployment, private prop?
ecty and unregulated prices, and one
placard called for the removal of
Prime Minister Nikolai I. Ryzhkov for
failing to lift the country out of its eco-
nomic misery.
The Government trade unions, trying
to halt a sharp decline in their credibil-
ity, have recently staked out a position
opposing economic changes that might
disrupt ~ the traditional security oti
Soviet workers.
Mr. Gorbachev's economic advisers
say the threat of a worker uprising is
the main reason they have pulled back
from a "shock-therapy" transition to a
market economy.
Several Soviet cities, including the
capitals of the Baltic republics and the
Caucasus republics of Georgia, Arme-
nia and Azerbaijan, canceled their May
Day festivities altogether as a holdover
from a discredited past. In Kiev, the
Ukrainian capital, the usual worker
brigades were joined by demonstrators
protesting Government handling of the
Chernobyl nuclear accident in 1986.
Moscow Communist Party officials
announced last week that the annual
parade would be thrown open to all
comers as a sign of increased plural-
ism. Officials may also have feared a
repetition of last November's revolu-
tion day, when the official march was
upstaged by a huge counterprotest at a
soccer stadium.
In another gesture to the new reali-
ties of politics in the capital, the Insur-
gent chairman of the Moscow City
Council, Gavriil K. Popov, atree-mar?
ket economist, joined Government and
Communist Party leaders atop the
mausoleum today.
Shocktag to Hierarchy
The unofficial section of the parade
was organized by the Moscow Voters
Association, which was instrumental in
the takeover of the city government by
Mr. Popov and other candidates eager
to hasten to demise of the Communist
monopoly.
As the crowds of factory workers or-
ganized by the unions emptied Red
Square, they were abruptly replaced
by a scette that has become familiar at
protest rallies in the city but must have
seemed shocking to the assembled
Kremlin hierarchy.
The columns included Hare Krishttas
and anarcho-syndicalists, social demo-
crate and anti-Stalinists, and at the
front a monk tram the Russian Ortho-
dox monastery at Zagorsk who held up
a nearly life-sized rendition of Christ on
the cross and called out to Mr. Gorba-
chev, "Mikhail Sergeyevich, Christ is
risen!"
"Down with the red fascist empire!"
said one placard that bobbed conspicu-
ously before the marble mausoleum
where the leadership stood. "Down
with the cult of Lenin!" read another,
its letters painted to simulate blood-
stains.
The Flags of LithuanU
One group of marchers waved the
red, green and yellow flags of Lithua-
nia and held up signs saying, "Gorba-
chev: hands oft Lithtuufia," and "the
blockade of Lithuania is the shame of
the President."
They got an appreciative roar from
other unofficial protesters as they en-
tered Red Square and took up a posi-
tiondirectly in f ront of the leadership.
WE W YORK TIMES
2 MAy igg0
The Kremlin has embargoed fuel and
other products to Lithuania and de-
manded that the republic back down
from its declaration of independence,
made March 11.
"Lithuania is a bellwether of what is
happening in our society," said Alek-
sandr Guryanov, a Russian physicist,
who paraded with a homemade pro-
Lithuania placard fixed to a hockey
stick. "Their freedom is our freedom."
Broadcast Is Cut Ott
Television viewers watching the live
coverage of the parade were given only
fleeting glimpses of the protest plac-
ards, and the broadcast, which nor-
mally runs until the parade is finished,
was cut oft about 15 minutes into the
unofficial portion.
Security was unusually tight around
the official reviewing stand, but the po-
lice made no noticeable attempt to re-
strict access to the square. Several for-
eign correspondents and a few Western
tourists crossed the square with the
flood of marchers.
Atop the mausoleum, Marshal
Dmitri T. Yazov, the Defense Minister,
glared grimly. Mr. Gorbachev alter-
nately bantered with colleagues and
stared out over the heads of the crowd.
After the unofficial marchers strode
into view, he seemed to make a point of
chAtting with Mr. Popov.
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 Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/05 :CIA-RDP93M007818000700920003-2
Protesters Jeer
Kremlin Leaders
In May Day March
By David Iismnick
w.r~tc. ~ Forap~ Ser~ioe
MOSCOW, May 1-Waving their
fists and jeering the Kremlin lead-
ership, tens of thousands of Musco-
vites today tran~ormed the tradr
tional May Day celebration of "so-
cialist labor" on Red Square into a
caustic rebuke of Communist power.
Soviet President Mikhail Gorba-
chev seemed transfnced at times as
the parade, once a tightly controlled
ritual of hollow hurrahs, suddenly
became a boisterous demonstration
of popular anger and protest. Some
demonstrators carved Lithuanian
and Czarist-era Russian flags, and a
few even displayed Soviet flags with
the hammer and sickle torn out,.
As Gorbachev and the rest of the
leadership watched from a review-
ing stand atop the Lenin Mausole-
um, the demonstrators hoisted plac-
ards expressing disdain for Kremlin
policy and ideology.
"The Blockade of Lithuania Is the
President's Shame!" "Soaalism? No
Thanks!" "Communists: Have No
Illusions. You Are Bankrupt."
"Marxism-Leninism Is on the Rub?
bish Heap of History." "Down With
the Politburo! Resign!"
It was a stunning drama Pley~
out on the cobblestaaes of Red
Square-the Soviet Union's most
resonant poetical stave. As Kremlin
loudspeakers boomed ont g~~-
ment slogans and marring muaiic.
the demonstrators shorted their
discontent for the first time to Gor-
bachev's face. A bearded Russian
Orthodox priest in the parade car-
ried a secen~-/fo~o~t~t~nglt crtic~pc ?ad
pouted, "Mikhail Sergeyevrch~
Christ Has Risen!"
For the fu~st time. the Kremlin
made participation in the May Day
demonstration open and voluntary
this yeaz, allowing unoffictat groups
and parties to join the parade. Mos-
cow's new mayor, radical economist
Gavril Popov, stood alongside the
Kremlin leaders on the mausoleum.
The transition from orchestrated
enthusiasm to genuine political feel-
ing provided the most startling pub-
lic evidence yet that Gorbachev's
popularity, especta11l' among urban
intellectuals and young people, has
plunged and that We Communist
Pazty is raptdly ktsin8 ground to
disparate movements and compet-
ing political parties.
"Ceausescus of the Politburo: Out
of Your Armchairs and Onto the
Frison Floors!" the placards reatL
"Gorbachev Is the Chief Patron of
the Mafia!" "Let the Communist
party Live at Chernobylr "Down
With Empire and Red Fascismr
"Down With the Cuk of Lenin!"
In earlier times, the May Day
crowds were compelled to carry
giant portraits of the Commtmiist
Politburo leaders. Today, the two
portraits most in evidence were
those of the late human-rights cam?
paigner Andrei Sakharoa- and maw
crick politician Boris Yeltsia
Gorbachev, the politician who sEt
ail these forces azound him in ma
lion, watched the spectacle fa
about 25 minutes and then headed
down the mausoleum steps and into
the Kremlin. The rest of the lead-
ership, as well as guests from labor
unions and the Moscow city council.
quickly followed Gorbachev's lead.
But the demonstration continued...
"We were all stunned. It's as if
Gorbachev decided to turn his bade
pl the v01Cea of the people." sad
one marcher. Alexander Afaaasyev,
a leader of the new studenb' Social
Democratic movement. "'fhe lead-
ership may try to dismiss what hap-
pened here today as just some ex-
tremists blowing off a ettk steam,
but it runs deeper. Gorbachev has
done a lot of good. but when it
Wq s u l N GTdr~ Po s r
Z MAy QO
comes to us, the radicals, he turns away
from his natural allies."
Soviet television gave extensive coverage
to the first hour of the parade, which was
dominated by trade unions and workers car-
rying far more conservative banners, in-
cluding "Down With Private Property." But
once the wave of radicals began, the broad-
cast was halted abruptly.
When the parade finally ended, two vet-
erans of World War II in their seventies,
their chests ablaze with rows of medals and
ribbons, stopped at a vending machine near
the Lenin Museum to buy glasses of mineral
water. They were disgusted with the morn-
ing's spectacle, depressed at what modern
times had brought.
"As far as I'm concerned, it was just or-
ganized slander, an insult to the Communist
Party and everything we've ever stood for,"
said Nikolai Alexeyev. "It shows Gorbachev
has no control."
"They just spit on us," said Nasally Estra-
tov. "They spit on the party, the army."
In other Soviet cities, the atmosphere was
at least as charged as in Moscow. In Lvov,
the center of the Ukrainian independence
movement, demonstrators carried icons of
the Virgin Mary and signs saying, "USSR:
The Prison House of Nations." They cheered
former political prisoner Vyacheslav Chor-
novil, who is now the mayor of Lvov. Crowds
in the Moldavian capital, Kishinev, carried
Romanian, not Soviet, flags.
In Leningrad, where Soviet state founder
Lenin began the Bolshevik Revolution in
1917, city agthorities canceled the May
Day parade, but independent political
groups staged an unofficial rally.
There were unsanctioned May Day ral-
lies in many Soviet cities last year, but what
made this year's events so significant, in
Moscow especially, was that marginal pro-
testsonce barely tolerated had taken center
stage. The demonstrators from Pushkin
Square and Luzhniki Stadium had suddenly
turned up at the Kremlin.
The political diversity of the protesting
ggrrooups was extraordinary: Anarcho-
Syndicalists, Constitutional Democrats, So-
cial Democrats, Christian Democrats, Dem-
ocratic Platform, Democratic Union and
many others. Afterward, young activists
distributed dozens of independent newspa-
pers and magazines, some of them printed
on hand-cranked mimeograph machines.
Some featured lampoons and cartoons of
Kremlin politicians.
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 Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/05 :CIA-RDP93M007818000700920003-2
NEW YOQK 'TIMES
zrnAy qo
Lithuanian Leader, on `Private' Visit, to Meet Bush
By ANDREW ROSENTHAL
Speci.l m 71rc New? York rirtros
WASHINGTON, May 1 -President
Bush will meet with the Lithuanian
Prime Minister on Thursday, the White
House announced today. It will be the
first time that an American President
has met with a leader of the Baltic re-
public since it was forcibly annexed by
the Soviet Union in 1940.
By the Administration's account, the
meeting with Prime Minister Kazimi-
era Prunskiene will also be the first di-
rect contact between Mr. Bush and any
Lithuanian official since Lithuania de-
clared independence from Moscow on
March 11.
The White House, clearly aware of
the diplomatic conundrum posed by the
meeting, went out of its way today to
portray Mrs. Prunskiene's visit to
Washington and the White House talks
as a private affair that did not signal a
change in United States policy on Lith-
uania.
Bush Decision Criticized
The announcement of the planned
meeting came as Congress sharpened
its criticism of Mr. Bush's decision last
week not to retaliate for the Kremlin's
economic sanctions against Lithuania.
Secretary of State James A. Baker
3d became embroiled in a testy ex-
change with several prominent Sena-
tors during a committee hearing. and
the full Senate voted 73 to 24 for a non-
binding resolution urging Mr. Bush not
to submit legislation to increase trade
with the Soviet Union unless Moscow
lifts its trade sanctions anQ begins ne-
gotiating with the republic's elected
leaders.
Trying to walk a thin line between re-
fusal to recognize the incorporation of
Lithuania into the Soviet Union and
support for President Mikhail S. Gor-
bachev, the Bush Administration has
not recognized the current government
of Lithuania as the government of an
independent nation.
The White House has avoided direct
contacts with Lithuanian,officials dur-
ing the crisis; Mr. Busb has twt even
responded to a letter from President
Vytautas Landsbergb.
Mrs. Prunskiene has been quoted in
news reports from Vilnhts as saying
that she was initialty denied permis-
sion to visit Washington before the
summit meeting between Mr. Bush and
Mr. Gorbachev, scheduled for May 30
to June 3.
But Marlin Fitzwater, ttte wntce
House spokesman, said today that Mrs.
Prunskiene was never denied a visa
and sought to portray Mr. Bush's invi-
tation to meet her in the White House
as a routine decision without any
greater policy implications.
Mr.Fitzwater said: "The President
feels that it's important to get an au-
thoritative readout and description of
events in Lithuania, hear first hand
from her what is occuring there. And so
she is in this country, and he thinks it's
an important opportunity to hear her
views."
Reaction In LiWuanla
The Reuters news agency quoted a
spokesman for the Parliament in Vil-
nius as saying the meeting was a posi-
tivesign. Aftec Mr. Bush declined to re-
taliate against Moscow for cutting off
shipments of oil and natural gas to
Lithuania, President Landsbergis said
Mr. Bush had sold out Lithuania in a
manner reminiscent of the appease-
ment of Hitler.
"At least ? this shows Bush has not
taken his comments too personally,"
the spokesman, Edward Tuskenis, was
quoted as saying.?
Even with Mr. Fitzwater's careful
formulation, the meeting posed some
subtle diplomatic problems, since the
point was to avoid any suggestion that
the meeting was a tacit recognition of
an independent Lithuania.
Mr. Fitzwater was asked, for exam-
ple, if Mr. Bush was meeting with Mrs.
Prunskiene as a private citizen, or as
the Prime Minister of Lithuania.
`A Private Visit'
"He is meeting with her as an ac-
knowledged and freely elected repre-
sentative of the Lithuanian people,"
Mr. Fitzwater said. "She is here on a
private visit, as we've said."
Mr. Fitzwater said Mr. Bush "is not
meeting with her as Prime Minister of
an independent Lithuania. Just so there
is no cottfusion."
But what, Mr. Fitzwater was asked,
will Mr. Bush call Mrs. Prunskiene?
"Prime Minister, I suppose," Mr. Fitz-
water said.
Asked how that tit in with the Admin-
istration's position on Lithuania's inde-
pendence, he said the "title she carries
is Prime Minister."
"We'll be glad to call her that title,"
he said "We do not recognize Lithua-
nia and there's nothing changed about
that."
Message to the Kremlin
During a Senate hearing today, Sena-
tor Dennis DeConcini, Democrat of Ar-
izona, told Mr. Baker that Mr. Bush's
decision not to retaliate for the Krem-
lin's economic sanctions sent this mes-
sage to the republic's leaders: "Oh
gosh, yeah, we want you tree and we
want to help, but you know, we're not
going to do anything to upset Mr. Gor-
bachev."
Mr. Baker listened with evident irri-
tation and replied, "I think that the
President, frankly, Senator DeConcini,
is in a better position to judge what
might or might not be effective for the
long run."
"I realize you guys are the masters
here," the Senator said, "and ['m just a
little munchkin working around here,
trying to express a view." But, he
added, "it seems to me that we're talk-
ingand that's all we're doing."
Mr. Baker said, "We have a lot of in-
terests at stake here that are very im-
portant interests to the United States of
America. One of these interests is to
see the Soviets destroy 40,000 tanks as
a part of a conventional forces agree-
ment, and we want to lock that agree-
ment in."
"Another is to see them destroy 50
percent of their heavy strategic mis-
siles which are targeted on United
States cities. We want to see that
agreement locked in. We want to see a
continued approach by the Soviet
Union that will permit us to hopefully
bring freedom and democracy to other
areas of the world."
Mr. Baker said the Administration
had to "balance" those concerns with
pressure to push Mr. Gorbachev to
allow, Lithuania to secede. "This is the
way we see it for the time being," he
said.
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 Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/05 :CIA-RDP93M007818000700920003-2
WASHINGTON Po ST
Z MAy al o
Bush to Meet
Lithuania's
Premier
By Don Oberdorfer
warro~too Pac sv~c wrier
President Bush agreed yesterday to meet
Lithuanian Prime Minister ICazimiera Prun-
skiene later this week as the Senate moved
to tie trade benefits for the Soviet Union to
Moscow's policies toward Baltic indepen-
dence.
Bush's decision to see Prunskiene in the
Oval Office on Thursday came at the sug~,~-
tion of conservative senators upset with Me
president's cautious approach to the Baltic
states and after Bush received a request for
the meeting from Lithuanian-Americans, a
senior White House official said.
Bush "feels it's important to get an author-
itative readout and description of events in
Lithuania ... he thinks it's an important ~
poRunity to hear her [Prunskiene's] views,"
said White House press secretary Martin
Fitzwater. Fitzwater referred to Pnmsldene
as "prime minister" and said Bush would re-
fer to her that way, even though the admin-
istration has declined to recognize the b~realc
away republic as an independent nation
Several hours after the White Howe an?
nouncement, the Senate by a ?3 to 24 vote
adopted a resolution objecting to U.S. trade
benefits for the Soviet Union until Motoow
lifts its economic embargo against Lithpama
and begins negotiatiaos with its elected tad-
ership. The mewue, sponsored by Sen. Al-
phonse M. D'Amato (R-N.Y.), is non-binding.
In a related devebpment, a senior Eston-
ian leader said the pro-independence move-
ment there is "really in despair" at the re-
cent posture of the Bush administration and
European natio~w. Marjo Lauristin, deputy
speaker of the Estonian Supreme Soviet, or
legislature, and a founder of the Estonian
Popular Front, said a shift in the interna-
tional atmosphere suggested that major na-
tions are trying to "shut the door" against
Baltic independence.
Lauristin, who has asked to meet high-'
level administration leaders during her U.S.
visit, said the Estonian legislature is likely
to begin implementation about the middle of
this month of its earlier declaration that
EaWma has been an uOCCUpled nation" since
it became part of the Soviet Union in 1940.
Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev has
warned F.stAnian leaders not to move in this
direction and asked them instead to repeal
the declaration that Estonia is "occupied."
Thus the Estonian action, which is expected
by Lauristin about May 14, could produce a
new Baltic showdown with Gorbachev just
two weeks before his scheduled arrival in
Washington for a summit meeting with Bush.
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WASH 1 N (,TON T 1 MfC'S
Z. MAY q0
Bush
to meet
Lithuania
leader
By Paul Bedard
THE WASHINGTON 71MES
President Bush, who has re-
fused to talk to members of Lith-
uania's independent government
to avoid a confrontation with
Moscow, will meet with the Bal-
tic state's prime minister tomor-
row, the White House said yes-
terday.
Mr. Bush's announcement
came hours before the Senate, on
a 73-24 vote, approved a non-
binding resolution that urges
him not to submit legislation giv-
ing trade benefits to the Soviet
Union until it lifts its economic
embargo of Lithuania.
Prime Minister Kazimiera
Prunskiene, who told Canadian
officials during a visit to Ottawa
that she was seeking Western
guarantees of support for Lith-
uania's independence drive, will
huddle with Mr. Bush for 30 min-
utes in the Oval Office..
"The president feels it's im-
portant to get an authoritative
readout and description of
events in Lithuania; hear first-
handfrom her what is occurring
there;' said White House Press
Secretary Marlin Fitzwater.
Mr. Fitzwater said the meet-
ing is not intettde~~to.signal that
the administratiQ-is~moving to-
ward recognizing the breakaway
government
" We don't recognize Lithuania
and there's nothing changed
about that," Mr. Fitzwater said.
However, it will be the first
White House meeting with any
members of the independent
Baltic government, which de-
clared independence March l I.
Mr. Bush "is meeting with her
as an acknowledged and freely
elected representative of the Lithua-
nian people.... He is not meeting
with her as prime minister of an in-
dependent Lithuania," Mr. Fitzwater
said.
Mrs. Prunskiene told Canadian of-
ficials, "We are looking for and must
have international assurances and
guarantees:'
She also said the Baltic republic
needs new trading partners and in-
ternational political support to help
it weather the economic blockade.
"We are looking for reliable trad-
ing partners. Under the blockade,
the Soviet Union is no longer a reli-
able trading partner for us," Mrs.
Prunskiene said in a meeting yester-
day with Toronto Mayor Art Eggle-
ton.
Despite the White House's at-
tempt to downplay its significance,
the Bush-Prunskiene meeting would
send a strong message of support to
Lithuania, said Mari-Ann? Rikken of
the Estonian-American National
Council.
"Since she represents the inde-
pendent government, it does send a
good message;' Ms. Rikken said.
"This is obviously a change:'
Ojars Kalnins, spokesman for the
American Latvian Association, said
the Oval Office meeting "will defi-
nitely give a boost" to Latvia's plans
to vote on an independence state-
ment similar to Lithuania's. He said
the vote is expected as early as to-
morrow
"They will look on the meeting as
a sign of support;' said Mr. Kalnins.
"It must be some kind of a change of
attitude" by Mr. Bush, he suggested.
Mr. Bush has been wary to step on
Soviet President Mikhail Gorba-
chev's toes as the Soviet leader tries
to work out negotiations with Lithua-
nia. For example, Mr. Bush dropped
plans [o implement U.S. sanctions
against the Soviets for cutting off
energy supplies to Lithuania.
His decision prompted Lithua-
nian President Vytautas Lands-
bergis to suggest Mr. Bush had sold
out Lithu;utia.
"At least this shows Bush has not
taken his [Mr. Landsbergis'1 com-
ments too personally," parliament
spokesman Edward Tltskenis told
Reuters news agency.
"We are looking for more forces of
democracy to reveal themselves
during these meetings and give a
push to the movement to democ-
racy;' Mrs. Prunskiene said in
Canada. She said Lithuania wants to
be involved in the United States' ef-
forts to boost trade with newly
democratic Eastern European coun-
tries.
Senate Majority Leader George
Mitchell said yesterday that Mr.
Bush must "clearly demonstrate"
that the United States supports a
free and independent Lithuania and
opposes the Soviet economic sanc-
tions.
Mrs. Prunskiene, a former senior
Communist Party official, won as-
surances of support from Canada as
she sought technology and trade
help in the areas of agriculture, light
industry and raw materials -issues
she is expected to raise with Mr.
Bush.
The Senate resolution, sponsored
by Republican Sen. Alfonse D'Ama-
to of New York, urges Mr. Bush not
to act on any U.S.-Soviet trade agree-
ments that would be a key step in
granting most-favored-nation trad-
ing status to the Soviet Union. It also
seeks to have the United Siates begin
negotiations with elected represent-
atives of the Baltic republic.
Mr. D'Amato said the resolution
sends a message that the Senate will
not permit "business as usual" while
the Soviet Union continues to wage
"economic warfare" against Lithua-
nia.
? Warren Strobel and Chris Har-
vey contributed to this report.
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WASHtt~l(,TDN POS i
~MA`I 9 O
Aid Voted.
To Panama,
Nicara a
~enate Also Urges
~pport for Lithuania
By Helen Dewar
Washington Post Statt Writer
The Senate approved $720 mil-
lion in economic aid to Panama and
tcara?ua yesterday and bluntly
u~rned President Bush not to send
acv U.S: Soviet trade agreements
is Congress until Moscow ends its
economic embargo against Lithu?
ania and be ins ne otiations on in-
cendence for the breakaway re-
public.
The aid package, including
Bush's request of $300 million for
Nicaragua and $420 million of the
$'600 million he sought for Panama,
was contained in a $3.4 billion sup-
plemental spending bill to continue
funding of hundreds of government
programs through the end of the
fiscal year Sept. 30.
The bill, approved by voice vote
after a week of haggling over its
provisions, now goes to a House-
Senate conference, which is expect-
!d to begin work later this week. A
Qreviously approved $2.4 billion
House bill includes the same aid
amounts for Panama and Nicaragua
but differs on scores of other spend-
ing items.
Bush pushed for swift approval of
the Panama-Nicaragua aid and crit-
icized the Senate for dawdling
trough the inauguration of Ni-
4araguan President Violeto Cha-
y~orro last week and a visit here
liiis week by Panamian President
Guillermo Endara.
' But the White House has also
threatened a veto if the Senate-
passed bill is not stripped in confer-
ence of language that would allow
the District of Columbia to use local
funds to pay for abortions for poor
women. The House bill does not
refer to D.C. abortions.
The abortion provision was ap-
proved late Monday along with an-
other amendment that would allow
D.C. courts to impose the death
penalty for drug-related murders.
The action, ending a brief filibuster
against the death-penalty clause,
cleared the way for final approval of
the bill yesterday after most other
controversial amendments faded
away.
An exception was the nonbinding
"Sense of the Senate" resolution on
Lithuania, which was approved ?3
to 24, with most Republicans voting
for it even though it implied criti-
cism of Bush's reluctance to take
any action that might un ermine
Soviet President Mikhail Gorba-
chev.
The resolution noted that UPS.
and Soviet negotiators reached vir-
tual agreement last week on a trade
pact that would grant most-favored-
nation status to the Soviet Union
and that Congress must approve
any agreement and enabling legis-
lation to carry it out.
"Implementation of such a pack-
age while the Soviets continue their
economic sanctions against Lithu-
ania would constitute implicit sup-
port for Soviet activities in Lithu-
ania," tlse resolution said.
To avoid sending such a signal,
the Senate told Bush that he should
not submit any agreement or ena-
bling legislation "until at least the
Soviet Union has lifted its economic
embargo against Lithuania" and
begun negotiations with the newly
elected Lithuanian government to
pave the way for independence "in
an orderly and expeditious manner."
The resolution was sponsored by
Sen. Alfonse M. D'Amato (R-N.YJ,
who said he agreed with Lithuanian
President Vytautas Landsbergis
that Bush's decision to defer sanc-
tions against the Soviets is tanta-
mount to another "Munich." "What
a terrible signal we send to the
world, what a terrible signal we
sent to the Soviets," D'Amato said.
The bill also includes funds for
food stamps, the census, veterans
benefits, disaster relief and $4U0
million in loan guarantees to build
houses for Soviet Jews who immi-
grate to Israel. While supporting
the loan guarantees, Minority Lead-
er Robert J. Dole (R-Kan.) ques-
tioned why Israel should get a break
on fees for the guarantees and oth-
er special treatment. These kind of
"side benefits" boost annual aid to
Israel at least $600 million beyond
its official $3 billion level, he said.
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NEtiJ yoRK -fiMES
~ M A`I 9 0
Baker Is Off to Europe, Ready to Sell Soviets
on United Germany in NATO
By THOMAS L FRIEDMAN
SpeCUI to The New York Tima
WASHINGTON, May 1 -Secretary
of State James A. Baker 3d leaves for
Europe on Wednesday for the first six-
nation talks about the future of a united
Germany, carrying a briefcase full of
ideas that he hopes will help the Soviets
accept what the United States sees as
inevitable: a unified Germany in
NATO.
The "two plus four" negotiations,
which were agreed upon last February
at an East-West conference in Ottawa,
call for West and East Germany to sit
down with the tour World War II Allies
- the United States, Soviet Union, Brit-
ain and France - to resolve all of the
external security issues raised by Ger-
man reunification, and to dissolve the
four powers' legal rights and responsi-
bilities in Berlin and Germany as a
whole.
Whatever the formal agenda, Admin-
istration officials and analysts predict
the talks will quickly come down to the
Soviets asking the Germans what eco-
nomic and security incentives they will
grant Moscow in return for the Soviets'
expeditiously withdrawing their
380,000 troops from East Germany, al-
lowing aunited Germany to become a
member of NATO and. terminating
their legal rights in Berlin along with
the other Allies.
Package oI Inidadves
It is not that the Kremlin is expected
to try to prevent German unification,
say officials. It is tar too late for that.
But the Soviets can drag their feet -
with bluff, bluster, blandishments and
by endless haggling over the arcane
legal issues involved in Berlin -until
they are satisfied that arrangements
for a united Germany will be militarily
and politically acceptable.
The question for the West, said an
Administration official, "ia how we
make it digestible for the Soviets so
they will accept this inevitabk out-
comesooner rather than later."
Administration officials say they
have in mind a pa of initiatives
chat would not only maTte the establish-
ment of a united German in NATO
something palatable for the Soviets,
but also acceptable to the other Euro-
peens, many of whom are also'nervous
about German unification.
Most of the initiatives the Adminis-
tration has in mind will be discussed
only informally In the two-pltta-tour
talks, which begin Saturday, and then
parceled out to the relevant negotiating
forums, where they will actually be ad-
dressed. The package includes these
ideas:
9The Western Allies will suggest to
the Soviets that if they are concerned
about the size of the West German
army, now 500,000 men, then Moscow
and Bonn should work out a troop re-
duction arrangment as part of the on-
going Vienna talks limiting conven-
tional forces in Europe. The Soviets
will also be tnvited to station a limited
number of troops in East Germany for
a fixed transition period, as will the
Allies in Berlin.
9The united Germany is expected to
reaffirm West Germany's promise
never to obtain nuclear, chemical or
biological weapons, and formally con-
firm the Oder-Neisse line as its eastern
border with Poland.
9In order to make a united Germany
in NATO aless-threatening, more polit-
ically acceptable entity to the Soviets,
negotiations are expected to begin soon
that would result in the elimination of
all, or most, United States-controlled,
short-range nuclear missiles, and per-
hapsartillery shells, in Germany in ex-
change for the removal of the Soviet's
short-range missiles and nuclear artil-
lery from Europe. That would leave
NATO with only air-delivered nuclear
bombs in Germany.
9West Gbrmany is expected to reas-
sure the Soviets that all of the con-
tracts that they have with East Ger-
man industries will be assumed by a
united Germany, and, say German ofti-
cisls, Bonn will strongly hint to Mos- i
cow that 1f it plays along on two-plus-
four, generous economic aid will follow
suit. The West Germans are also ex-
pected to offer to help subsidize the
cost - as the East German Govern-
ment used to do - of maintaining
Soviet troops in East German territory
for the transitional period.
9The 3S-nation Conference on Se-
curity and Cooperation in Europe will
be given a new, expanded and formal-
ized role for conflict resolution and
infra-European dialogue for iBs mem-
ber states, say Administrat offi-
cials, so that after a united Germany
joins NATO -and the Warsaw Pact
inevitably fades away -the Soviets,
Poles, Czechs, Hungarians, Romanians
and Bulgarians won't feel left out in the
cold.
This could prove to be the most ditti-
cult part of the package to sell, both to
the Allies and the Soviets. The French
would prefer to see the American-
dominated NATO downgraded and the
Conference on Security and Coopera-
tion in Europe given a more formal se-
curity role that might eventually make
it more of an alternative to NATO than
a complement.
The same goes for the Soviets, who
will find it hard to accept the notion of
NATO emerging as the sole, dominat-
ing security structure in Europe. This
could create the politically dangerous
impression back in Moscow that while
Stalin won World War II, Mikhail S.
Gorbachev loss the peace.
There is a word that American offi-
cials say they have been hearing con-
stantly of late from the Soviet Foreign
Minister, Eduard A. Shevardnadze:
`Synchronization."
"What we think he means is that
until they have a sense that all of their
concerns and interests have been ad-
dressed - from the conventional
forces negotiations to German unifica-
tidn -they will behave as though none
of them have been addressed," a senior
Administration official said. "I think
the Soviets are just now waking up to
the monumental consequences of
everything that has happened in Eu-
rope in the last year and this has intro-
duced a kind of tentative and confused
quality to their decision making."
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