TERMS OF REFERENCE: NIE 10-5-54: ANTI-COMMUNIST RESISTANCE POTENTIAL IN THE SOVIET BLOC (STAFF DRAFT FOR CONSIDERATION BY THE BOARD OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A004800050031-2
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 16, 2013
• Sequence Number: 31
• Publication Date: July 14, 1954
• Content Type: MISC

Declassified and Approved ForRelease2013/01/16 : CIA-RDP79R01012A004800050031-2
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE kOENCT
14 0,1M4 1954
SUBJECT8 TERMS OF REFERENCE8 NIE 104=54s ANTI-COMMUNIST RESISTANCE
POTENTIAL IN THE SOVIET BLOC (Staff Draft for Consideration
by the Board of National Estimate)
THE PROBLEM
To appraise the ba as intensity and distribution of disaffootion
and resistance in Soviet Bloc oountri es anti-Communist resistance
potential under cold mar and h t mar conditions*
SCOPE
This estimatelmill cover the USSR the Satellites, Commanist
China and North Kerma 1
With respect to Poland and Communiet Chinas agency contribution
should cover only relevant developments (if agy), nubs/al:pant to
those covered in the Resist= Intfilligence Committee's studies
on those c 4tries (tOtA and RIR4) and contributio thereto?
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DO
NO
0
DLA
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QUESTIONS BEARING ON THE PROBLEM
Contributions STO to cover each country severally's, in
addition to making -any appropriate generalisations f
groups of countries fr the Bloc as a whaeo
I. Basic Factors and Elements of Dissidence
.41.? What eoonomice politicale and social factors crests iUill
tomard the regime; e,g0e persecution of aocio-economice religi se
or Ahnic group% economic control% economic distress, political
control% the regimes attacks on traditional vales and practicese
encroachments of the USSR on national sovereigntye etco?
B, In.uhat elements of the population is dissidence and actual
or potential resistance found; s0g0e in what religiouse economic')
political() militarye etbnice rurale urbane agee or occupational groups,
other categories?
C. How intense is dissidence and to ubst extent does it
provide a favorable popular setting for actual r sistance activity?
D. Mat trends in the basis and intensity of dissidenc have
been in evidence since the death of Stalin?
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Resistance Activitie to Date
A. Mat has been the histroy of resista groups and their
'activity id.ne the d of World War II?
B, t o anised resistance groups are believed to allot nes?
In addition to identifying the groUpss indicates
1, N rical strengths internal disciplines train gs and
cohesion, :mintiest, and (Beni nts etc0
2, Character and background of leadership?
30 Political orientati *ages nationalists Titoists antiATB,
40 Area of operations,
50 Trend of strength and activity,
60, 1168000B for dissidence,
70 diets and ultimate objectives under pe time and
wartime conditions,
Extent of infiltration into armed for as bureaucracy9
war industrys too
90 Type and extent of activity to dates including .active
(sabotages etc,),, passive (alowdomn% satc,),, intelligence
collections etc.
C, What is the =tent and nature of unorganised resistance? :By
at eleisnts of the population is it displayed? How is it manifested?
3 em
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What trends appear in its prevalaace or type of manifestation?
D. To what extent has organized and unorganized resistance been
guided and materially assisted by enie groups? Other, external
sources?
E. By whatleans does the mine meek to inhibit or counter
.diesidones and resistance organization and activities? What is
trend of effectiveness of ceunterresistandel
III, Desiatance Potential
A. Assuming continuation of cold war conditionas
1. What typos and levels of resittan aotivityare nee witlita
the capability of organized resistance groups? Uhor ised
resistance?
To what extent could such activity be expanded or intensified?
Upon that factors Will Increase or 00029a809 of resistance
eapability depend.? eotop
(a) Improved cooperation among groupeo
(h) Exta7nal support by governments or groups9 both
overt and covert.
(a) Indicated poseibilities for eventual laprovement in9
or replacement of the regime?
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(d) sic factors of dissidence (as covered in I).*
(e) State security controls and other factors inhibWng
resistance?
Bo Under conditions of epee warfere9 what Would be the capabi1itiele
for initial action and for ustained action of the following lines?
Intensified reaistance measures?
Indepen t military action. To uhat extent would this
capability depend on outside support?
Assistanc? to emmey foresee ins
(a) Military or poBbical arfare.
W _Evasion and ?seeped
(c) Intelligence cell ctiono
H would the capabilities indicated in le 29 and 3 above be
Affected bys
CO The stage or trend of military action at the time?
6sogos by whether military action9 was actually in
process within the comatry or area in (pastime whether
epdh action included WO of nuclear weaponse or whether
one side or the other eppeared to be gaining
(b) Nationality of Attacking forces.
(c) Indicated p saibilities for eventual improvegent in,
or replacement Ofe th regime.
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Circumstanc s surrounding initiation of hostilitiess
Loak,, which side is held refiponsibla for such initiation?
Occupation policies of attacking for in occupied
parte, if mg of the country.
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