CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRIC POWER IN THE USSR 1945-65

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• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 3, 2013
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: April 1, 1962
• Content Type: REPORT

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N? 92
Economic Intelligence Report
CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRIC POWER IN THE USSR
1945-65
CIA/RR ER 62-11
April 1962
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
Sh T
GROUP 1
EXCLUDED FROM AUTOMATIC DOWN-
GRADING AND DECLASSIFICATION
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SECRET
Economic Intelligence Memorandum
CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRIC POWER IN THE USSR
1945-65
This material contains information affecting
the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
Title 18, USC, Sees. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
SECRET
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This report summarizes the results of detailed research in depth on
consumption of electric power in the USSR during 19)+5-65. Consumption
is estimated by economic sector and by area for the USSR and by branch
for Soviet industry. The report also includes estimates of electric
power consumed by the Soviet nuclear materials industry that have not
heretofore been published by this Office.
Consumption of electric power by the various sectors of the economy
is reported annually by the USSR, and consumption by the various branches
of industry was reported in detail for 1955. Consumption by the nuclear
materials branch of industry was not specifically mentioned but appar-
ently was included in the category "other industry," as the share of this
category had tripled since the 1930's. Some of the data for the vari-
ous branches of industry for years other than 1955 have been reported,
others have been derived from reported indexes, and still others have
been derived from reported or estimated production multiplied by re-
ported actual or normative unit consumption of electric power. The
estimates for consumption of electric power by the nuclear materials
branch of industry have been derived in all cases as a residual. The
margin of error attached to such residuals may be substantially greater
than the margins of error attached to the other estimates of consump-
tion. To reduce this margin of error, the residuals were checked against
estimates of consumption of electric power based on the study of individ-
ual nuclear materials enterprises. In those cases (as for gaseous dif-
fusion plants) in which the magnitudes were sufficiently large to con-
stitute a significant part of production of electric power by the oblast,
the residual and plant methods of estimation agree within 10 to 15 per-
cent over the historical period. For smaller installations the two
methods of estimation often had a larger degree of divergence. In spite
of the limitations of the available data, the estimates presented are
believed to be of the correct order of magnitude for the historical
period. The estimate for 1965, based as it is on an interpretation of
Soviet plans and projections of past trends, can make no allowance for
Soviet decisions concerning the priority to be ascribed to fulfillment
of these plans and is subject to margins of error considerably larger
than those attached to data for the historical period.
The report has been
coordinated with the Office of Scientific Intelligence.
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CONTENTS
Page
Summary and Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
I. Allocation of the Total Final Consumption by Economic
Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
A . Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
B. Allocation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1. Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2. Other Sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
C. Distribution by Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
II. Branch Allocation of Consumption by Industry . . . . . . 17
A. Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
B. Major Nonnuclear Branches of Industry . . . . . . . . 18
C. Distribution by Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
III. Consumption by the Nuclear Materials Industry . . . . . . 30
A. Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
B. Distribution by Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
1. Estimated Allocation of the Total Final Consumption of
Electric Power in the USSR, by Economic Sector,
Selected Years, 19-i-5-62, and 1965 Plan . . . . . . . . . 2
2. Estimated Allocation of Consumption of Electric Power
in the USSR, by Branch of Industry, 1945, 1960, and
1965 Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Estimated Average Annual Increases in Consumption of
Electric Power in the USSR, by Economic Sector, for
Five-Year Periods, 1946-65 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
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4. Estimated Consumption of Electric Power in the USSR,
by Economic Sector, Selected Years, 1945-62, and
1965 Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Page
5. Estimated Distribution of the Total Final Consumption
of Electric Power in the USSR, by Area, Selected Years,
.1950-58, and 1965 Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
15
6. Estimated Structure of Allocation of the Final Consump-
tion of Electric Power in the USSR, by Area and by
Economic Sector, 1958 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
16
7. Estimated Distribution of Consumption of Electric Power
by Industry in the USSR, by Area, Selected Years,
1950-58, and 1965 Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
17
8. Estimated Allocation of Consumption of Electric Power
in the USSR, by Branch of Industry, Selected Years,
1945-62, and 1965 Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
19
Estimated Consumption of Electric Power in the USSR and
the US, by Branch of Industry, 1958 . . . . . . . . . .
21
10. Estimated Allocation of Consumption of Electric Power
by the Fuel Industry in the USSR, Selected Years,
1945-60, and 1965 Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
22
11. Estimated Allocation of Consumption of Electric Power
by the Nonferrous Metallurgical Industry in the USSR,
Selected Years, 1950-60, and 1965 Plan . . . . . . . . .
25
12. Estimated Allocation of Consumption of Electric Power
by the Chemical Industry in the USSR, Selected Years,
1950-60, and 1965 Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
26
13. Estimated Consumption of Electric Power in the USSR, by
Branch of Industry and by Area, 1958 . . . . . . . . . .
28
14. Estimated Consumption of Electric Power in the USSR, by
Branch of Industry and by Area, 1965 Plan . . . . . . .
29
15. Estimated Consumption of Electric Power by the Nuclear
Materials Industry in the USSR and the US, Selected
Years, 1945-61, and 1962 and 1965 Plans . . . . . . . .
31
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16. Estimated Distribution of Consumption of Elec-
tric Power by the Nuclear Materials Industry
in the USSR, by Area, Selected Years, 1950-60,
and 1965 Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Page
Illustrations Following Page
Figure 1. Estimated Distribution of Consumption of
Electric Power in the USSR, by Area,
1950, 1958, and 1965 Plan (Map) . . . . . 4
Figure 2. Estimated Consumption of Electric Power
in the USSR, by Economic Sector,
1945-65 (Chart)
Figure 3. Estimated Consumption of Electric Power
in the US and the USSR, Selected
Aggregates, 1945-65 (Chart) . . . . . . . 10
Figure 4. Estimated Indexes of Growth of Consump-
tion of Electric Power and of output
in the USSR, by Economic Sector,
1950-65 (Chart) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Figure 5. Estimated Consumption of Electric Power
in the USSR, by Branch of Industry,
1945-65 (Chart) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
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CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRIC POWER IN THE USSR*
195-5
Summary and Conclusions
The total final consumption** of electric power in the USSR grew
steadily from 37.0 billion kilowatt-hours (kwh) in 1945 to 256.2 bil-
lion kwh in 1960 and 286 billion kwh in 1961 and is expected to reach
approximately the planned levels of 320 billion kwh in 1962 and 454.8
billion kwh in 1965 (see Table 1)(**). Soviet final consumption of
electric power increased from 15.2 percent of the comparable US con-
sumption in 1945 to 33.3 percent in 1960 and, during the same time
period, grew at an average annual rate of 14 percent compared with
8 percent in the US. It is estimated that Soviet consumption of elec-
tric power by 1965 will be about 42 percent of that in the US. It is
planned that Soviet consumption will grow 12 percent a year for the
period 1961-65, compared with a projected growth of 6 percent in the US.
Although there has been.a steady growth in consumption of electric
power by all sectors of the Soviet economy, the proportional allocation
to transportation and the rural economy has increased at the expense
of industry and the urban economy. Nevertheless, the latter two sec-
tors still accounted for approximately 74 and 12 percent, respectively,
of the total final consumption in 1961.
Consumption of electric power by industry in the USSR increased
at an average rate of about 13.5 percent a year, growing from 28.4
billion kwh in 1945 to 190.5 billion kwh in 1960 and 213 billion kwh
in 1961. Plans call for consumption to grow at an average annual
rate of 12 percent, to 238 billion kwh in 1962 and 332 billion kwh
in 1965. Consumption in industry grew from 20 percent of the US
level in 1945 to 48 percent in 1960 and is planned to grow to 57 per-
cent of the projected US level in 1965. The increases in consumption
* The estimates and conclusions in this report represent the best
judgment of this Office as of 1 April 1962.
** Final consumption of electric power is consumption by the ultimate
consumer and excludes power that is used by the powerplants themselves,
lost in the process of transmission, or exported from the country. Final
consumption averages about 87.5 percent of the total gross production.
Gross production of electric power is the net production sent out from
the powerplant plus the electric power used by the powerplant itself.
*** Table 1 follows on p. 2.
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Estimated Allocation of the Total Final Consumption
of Electric Power in the USSR, by Economic Sector
Selected Years, 1945-62, and 1965 Plan
1965
Economic Sector
1945
1950
1955
1960
1961
1962
Plan
Industry
28.4
60.6
113.3
190.5
213.0
238.0
332.4
Construction
1.4
2.6
6.0
9.5
10.7
11.5
14.5
Transportation
1.3
2.6
5.4
14.2
16.4
19.0
29.9
Urban economy
5.5
12.3
20.3
32.5
34.8
38.0
53.0
Rural economy
0.4
1.6
4.1
9.5
11.5
13.5
25.0
Total
37.0
79.7
149.1
256.2
286.4
320.0
454.8
are a reflection of the sustained over-all industrial growth and, more
particularly, of the rapid growth of the power-intensive nuclear mate-
rials industry.
Consumption of electric power by the other productive sectors of
the Soviet economy* grew as fast as or more rapidly than consumption
by the industrial sector during 1946-60. Consumption increased at an
average annual rate of 14 percent in construction, 17 percent in trans-
portation, and 24 percent in the rural economy, although the annual
rate has shown a slightly downward trend. The rapid increases in these
sectors are attributable for the most part to a progressively increasing
electrification program.
Consumption of electric power by each branch of industry in the USSR
has increased steadily each year since 1945. The share allocated to
the fuel, ferrous metallurgical, and machine building and metalworking
branches of industry decreased from 59 percent in 1945 to 46 percent in
1960. During this period a new industry, the nuclear materials industry,
was inserted into the consumption pattern and consumed increasingly
larger amounts of electric power until, by 1960, it was using almost
14 percent of all electric power allocated to industry. Apparently the
plan is that the proportional allocation to the fuel, ferrous metal-
lurgical, and machine building and metalworking branches of industry
* The urban economy is not considered to be a productive sector in Soviet
statistical practice. The annual rate of growth of consumption of electric
power by the urban economy was less than 13 percent for the period 1946-60.
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S-E-C-R-E-T
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will decline to 111 percent by 1965 and that the share of the nuclear
materials industry will grow to more than 18 percent. The estimated
consumption of electric power in the USSR by consuming branch of in-
dustry is shown in Table 2.*
Consumption of electric power by the nuclear materials industry in
the USSR is estimated to have grown to 26.4 billion kwh in 1960 and to
31.6 billion kwh in 1961 -- about 3 billion kwh more than were consumed
by all industry in 1945. The Soviet plan for consumption of electric
power apparently calls for consumption by the nuclear materials indus-
try to continue to grow to about 37 billion kwh in 1962 and 61 billion
kwh in 1965. It is estimated that the nuclear materials industry in
the USSR used 56 percent as much electric power as did the US Atomic
Energy Commission (USAEC) in 1961 and that, if future planned growth
is carried out, the Soviet nuclear materials industry in 1965 will be
consuming 20 percent more power than the US nuclear materials industry,
mostly as a result of rapid growth in the USSR but also in part as a
result of planned lower consumption in the US.
The distribution of consumption of electric power in the USSR by
area reflects the gradual eastward movement of Soviet economic activity
during 1950-58 and the rapid growth, in the eastern RSFSR, of the nu-
clear materials industry in the Seven Year Plan (1959-65).
Industry has used and will continue to use about two-thirds of the
electric power allocated to the European RSFSR and three-fourths of the
power allocated to the non-RSFSR republics in the European areas** of
the USSR. In these areas the nuclear materials industry has been a
negligible factor in the growth of power consumption. The consumption
of electric power grew about 150 percent in the Urals area during
1950-58. About one-third of this growth resulted from the expanding
requirement of the nuclear materials industry to an estimated level of
8.6 billion kwh in 1958. Although consumption of electric power by the
nuclear materials industry is to continue to grow in the Urals area to
an estimated level of 15.1 billion kwh in 1965, the major additions to
consumption will be in the nonnuclear industries.
Table 2 follows on p. 4.
The areas referred to in this report are those defined on the map,
Figure 1, following p. 4+, and do not necessarily coincide with the 12
economic regions that formerly existed in the USSR. The term eastern
areas as used in this report includes that part of the USSR east of the
Urals area -- that is, the eastern RSFSR, Kazakh SSR, and the central
Asian republics. The term European areas as used in this report in-
cludes that part of the USSR west of the Urals area -- that is, the
European RSFSR, the Baltic republics, the Belorussian SSR, the
Ukrainian SSR, and the Transcaucasus. The Urals area is considered
separately.
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Estimated Allocation of Consumption of Electric Power in the USSR, by Branch of Industry
1945, 1960, and 1965 Plan
1945 1960
1965 Plan
Branch of Industry
Billion
Kilowatt-Hours
Q
Percent .
Billion
Kilowatt-Hours
Percent
Billion
Kilowatt-Hours
Percent
Fuel
4.2
14.6
28.2
14.8
42.5
12.8
Ferrous metals
5.6
19.7
31.5
16.5
54.9
16.5
Nonferrous metals
3.8
13.2
23.3
12.2
46.5
14.0
Chemical
3.2
11.1
18.0
9.4
34.7
l0.4
Machine building and
metalworking
7.0
24.7
27.8
14.6
38.0
11.4
Timber, woodworking,
and paper
1.0
3.6
7.4
3.9
10.9
3.3
Construction materials
0.6
2.1
10.5
5.5
17.9
5.4
Light industry
1.4
5.0
8.1
4.3
12.9
3.9
Food industry
1.2
4.2
5.7
3.0
7.6
'2.3
Nuclear materials
Negl.
Negl.
26.4
13.9
60.8
18.3
Other industry
o.4
1.8
3.6
1.9
5.7
1.7
Total 28.4 100.0 190.5 100.0 332.4 100.0
a. Because of rounding, data may not add to the total shown, and percentages may not be directly derived
from the absolute data shown.
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Estimated Distribution of Consumption of Electric Power in the USSR
by Area, 1950, 1958, and 1965 Plan
(Billion Kilowatt-Hours)
Areas Consumption
1. European Areas 41 Total final
la. RSFSR consumption
lb. Non-RSFSR 3 Industry
2. Urals Area
3. Eastern Areas 1a Nuclear materials
3a. RSFSR
3b. Non?RSFSR
SECRET
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The influence of the growth of the nuclear materials industry is
most apparent in the eastern RSFSR. About one-third of the 210-per-
cent increase in consumption of electric power in this area during
1950-58 occurred as a result of the expanding consumption by the nu-
clear materials industry to an estimated level of 7.9 billion kwh in
1958. About one-half of the 220-percent increase in consumption of
electric power planned for the area during 1958-65 apparently will be
attributable to increased consumption by the nuclear materials indus-
try; it is estimated that in 1965 the nuclear materials industry in
the eastern RSFSR will consume about 40 billion kwh, two-thirds of the
total national consumption of electric power by the industry. In the
Central Asian republics, although the nuclear materials industry has
continued to use about 10 to 15 percent of the total consumption, the
major impetus to growth in consumption of electric power is nonnuclear
industry.
A continuation of recent past trends in the growth of consumption
of electric power by the various sectors of the Soviet economy would
result in the goals for consumption of electric power by the construc-
tion and transportation sectors in 1965 being exceeded by about 2 bil-
lion and 5 billion kwh, respectively. A similar projection for the
industrial, urban, and rural sectors indicates that their goals for
consumption will not be fulfilled. It is estimated that industry will
consume about 5 billion kwh less than the goal and that the urban and
rural sectors will each fall short of its consumption goal by about
2 billion kwh. A projection of past trends would thus result in the
total final consumption falling short of the planned goal by 2 billion
kwh. Within the industrial sector a series of estimates for individual
industries, most of which were based on past trends, indicates that con-
sumption probably will exceed the goal by about 5 billion kwh in the ma-
chine building and metalworking industries and by 3 billion kwh in the
construction materials industry. On the other hand, consumption may
fall short of the plan by 4 billion kwh in the chemical industry and by
about 2 billion kwh in each of the following: the nonferrous metals in-
dustry; the timber, woodworking, and paper industry; and light industry
and will approximately fulfill the plan in the other nonnuclear industries.
If Soviet industry as a whole fails to fulfill the plan for consumption of
electric power by 5 billion kwh and nonnuclear industry fails by 2 billion
kwh, the nuclear materials industry will fall short of its goal by about
3 billion kwh. The underfulfillment of plans for consumption of electric
power indicated above for all final consumers, for industry as a whole,
and for the nuclear materials industry is in each case so small as to fall
well within the range of error attached to the estimates of consumption by
these consumers, and it is estimated that plans for the total consump-
tion of electric power will be approximately fulfilled.
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I. Allocation of the Total Final Consumption by Economic Sector
The total final consumption of electric power by the Soviet
economy grew steadily from 37.0 billion kwh in 1945 to 256.2 billion
kwh in 1960 and 286.4 billion kwh in 1961 and is expected to reach
approximately the planned levels of 320 billion kwh in 1962 and
454.8 billion kwh in 1965. The estimated final consumption of
electric power in the USSR is given in Table 4* and is shown graph-
ically in Figure 2.** Final consumption increased from 85.5 per-
cent of the total gross production in 1945 to 87.6 percent in 1960
and is expected to remain at this level through 1965. Soviet final
consumption of electric power increased from 15.2 percent of com-
parable US consumption in 1945 to 33.3 percent in 1960 and has
grown at an average annual rate of 14 percent, compared with 8 per-
cent in the US. By 1965, Soviet consumption of electric power will
be about 42 percent of projected US consumption. Soviet consump-
tion is planned to grow at a rate of 12 percent a year during
1961-65, compared with a projected 6 percent in the US. Consump-
tion of electric power in the US is compared with that in the USSR
in the chart, Figure 3.**
The estimated allocation of the final consumption of electric
power to the consuming sectors of the Soviet economy for selected
years, 1945-65, is summarized in Table 3 and is shown graphically in
Figure 2.** There was a steady growth in consumption of electric
power by all sectors throughout 1945-61, but the proportional allo-
cation to transportation and the rural economy increased at the ex-
pense of,industry and the urban economy. Estimated rates of growth
in consumption of electric power by the various sectors of the Soviet
economy are shown in Table 3.
1. Industry
Consumption of electric power by industry in the USSR in-
creased at an average annual rate of 13.5 percent, growing from 28.4
billion kwh in 1945 to 190.5 billion kwh in 1960 and 213 billion kwh
in 1961, and is planned to grow at an average annual rate of about
Table 4 follows on p. 9.
Following p. 10.
Table 3 follows on p. 8.
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12 percent to a level of 238 billion kwh in 1962 and 332 billion kwh
in 1965. Consumption by industry declined from 76.7 percent of the
total final consumption of electric power in the USSR in 19+5 to 74+.3
percent in 1960 and is planned to decline further to 73.1 percent in
1965. Consumption by industry grew from 20 percent of the US level
in 19+5 to 4+8 percent in 1960 and is planned to grow to 57 percent of
the projected US level in 1965 (see Figure 3*).
Table 3
Estimated Average Annual Increases in Consumption of Electric Power
in the USSR, by Economic Sector, for Five-Year Periods
19+6-65
1961-65
Economic Sector
19+6-50
1951-55
1956-60
Plan
Industry
16
13
11
12
Construction
13
18
10
9
Transportation
15
16
21
16
Urban economy
18
10
10
10
Rural economy
32
21
18
21
Total final consumption
17
13
12
12
Consumption of electric power by industry has grown at a
more rapid rate than industrial production. During 1950-60 the index
of consumption of electric power by industry grew at an average of
1 percent a year faster than the officially announced Soviet index of
the gross value of industrial output and 3 percent a year faster than
a computed index of industrial output.** During 1960-65 the index of
consumption of electric power by industry is expected to continue to
grow 3 percent a year faster than the computed index of industrial
output. A comparison of indexes of growth of consumption of electric
power and of output is given for the productive sectors of the Soviet
Following p. 10.
An index of gross values for individual commodities and branches
aggregated by 1955 value-added weights. This index is as comparable
as data will permit with the index of industrial production of the
US Federal Reserve Board.
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Table 4
Estimated Consumption of Electric Power in the USSR, by Economic Sector
Selected Years, 1945-62, and 1965 Plan
1945
1950
1955
1958
1960
1961
1962
1965 Plan
Billion
Billion
Billion
Billion
Billion
Billion
Billion
Billion
Kilowatt-
Hours
Percent
Kilowatt-
Hours
Percent
Kilowatt-
Hours
Percent
Kilowatt-
Hours
Percent
Kilowatt-
Hours
Percent
Kilowatt-
Hours
Percent
Kilowatt-
Hours
Percent
Kilowatt-
Hours
Percent
Industry
28.4
76.7
60.6
76.0
113.3
76.o
154.2
74,8
190.5
74,3
213.0
74.4
238.0
74.4
332.4
73.1
Construction
1.4
3.8
2.6
3.3
6.0
4.0
7.8
3.8
9.5
3.7
10.7
3.7
11.5
3.6
14.5
3.2
Transportation
1.3
3.5
2.6
3.3
5.4
3.6
9.2
4.5
14.2
5.5
16.4
5.7
19.0
5.9
29.9
6.6
Urban economy
5.5
14.9
12.3
15.5
20.3
13.6
28.0
13.6
32.5
12.6
34.8
12.2
38.0
11.9
53.0
11.6
Rural economy
0.4
1.1
1.6
1.9
4.1
2.8
6.9
3.3
9.5
3.9
11.5
4.0
13.5
4.2
25.0
5.5
Total final consumption
Transmission losses, use
by powerplants, and net
exports a/
Total gross consumption b
37.0 100.0 79.7 100.0 149.1 100.0 206.1 100.0 256.2 100.0 286.4 100.0 320.0 100.0 454.8 100.0
43.3 91.2
170.2
a. Exports are planned to be 1.2 billion kilowatt-hours in 1965.
b. Equivalent to the total gross production, as there are no stockpiles.
29.3 36.3
235.4 ?22.5
4o.6
327.0
46.0
366.o
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SECRET
Estimated Consumption of Electric Power in the USSR
by Economic Sector, 1945-65
Industry
Construction
Transportation
Urban economy
Rural economy
SECRET
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SECRET
Estimated Consumption of Electric Power in the US and the USSR
Selected Aggregates, 1945-65
-_.-- Industry
'The definition of industry
in US power consumption
statistics was changed in
/96o.
SECRET
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economy* in the chart, Figure 4.** The more rapid growth in consump-
tion of electric power has been a result of a structural shift in
consumption of electric power within the industrial sector, attrib-
utable in part to the fact that power-intensive electrotechnical
usesxxx (largely in the metallurgical, chemical, and machine build-
ing industries) have consumed an ever-increasing share of the total
consumption and in part to the steadily growing importance of con-
sumption of electric power by the nuclear materials industry.
Consumption of electric power in Soviet industry per pro-
ductive wage worker increased 83 percent during 1950-59 and in the
latter year reached 9,284 kwh per worker, 32 percent of the US level
at that time. During 1950-59 the number of productive wage workers
in the USSR grew by 56 percent.
The major use of electric power in Soviet industry has
been for motor drive for production machinery. Consumption of elec-
tric power for motor drive declined as a share of the total consump-
tion by industry from 62.2 percent in 1945 to 61.5 percent in 1958
and is to decline further to about 55 percent in 1965. The major
consumers of electric power for motor drive in 1961 were the fuel,
ferrous metallurgical, machine building and metalworking, and nuclear
materials industries. In the latter industry, gaseous diffusion
plants consumed most of the power that went to motor drive.
The most rapidly growing type of use for electric power
in Soviet industry is technological use for electrochemical and
electrothermal purposes. Such consumption grew from 25.2 percent
of the total industrial consumption of electric power in 1945 to
27.8 percent in 1958 and is planned to increase to 35 percent in
1965. About one-third of the technological consumption of electric
power in 1958 was by the nonferrous metals industry. The ferrous
metallurgical, chemical, and machine building industries each ac-
counted for nearly 15 percent of the total technological consump-
tion of electric power. Half of the expenditures for technological
use in the chemical industry were for coproduction of heavy water
* Industry, construction, transportation, and the rural economy
are considered to be the productive sectors of the economy in Soviet
statistical practice.
-X Following p. 12.
xxx Electrotechnical uses include the electrothermal production of
such items as electric steel, ferroalloys, and carbide; the electro-
chemical production of such products as aluminum, chlorine, and heavy
water; and various other electrotechnical processes such as induction
heating and electric welding.
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and synthetic ammonia. The nuclear materials industry used about
5 percent of the total technological consumption for production of
calcium, lithium, and other products.
Consumption of electric power for other uses (mostly
lighting and ventilation) by Soviet industry steadily declined as
a percentage of total use, from 12.6 percent in 1945 to 10.7 percent
in 1958, and may decline further to 10 percent in 1965.
Consumption of electric power in the other productive
sectors of the Soviet economy grew more rapidly than in the indus-
trial sector during 1945-60, having increased at an average annual
rate of 14 percent in construction, 17 percent in transportation, and
24 percent in the rural economy, although the annual rate showed a
slightly downward trend. The rapid increases in these sectors have
been attributable almost exclusively to a progressively increasing
electrification program.
As a result of the rapid electrification of construction
activity, consumption of electric power by the construction sector of
the economy grew.much more rapidly than did construction and instal-
lation work during 1950-55. Since 1955, however, the increasing
emphasis on the more efficient use of electric power and the rapid
growth of the precast reinforced concrete industry have depressed the
rate of growth in consumption of electric power compared with con-
struction activity. Consumption of electric power by the precast
reinforced concrete industry is amalgamated with industry rather than
with construction. It is estimated that construction and installation
work will continue to grow as rapidly as consumption of electric power
by the construction sector during 1960-65 (see Figure 4*).
The rapid growth in consumption of electric power by the
transportation sector also has been accompanied by a structural change
in the pattern of power consumption by the sector, involving much more
rapid growth in consumption of power by electric traction. By 1960,
consumption of electric power had grown to 14.2 billion kwh, almost
11 times the 1945 level, while traffic turnover had grown less than
5 times (see Figure 4). It is estimated that consumption will grow
to 19 billion kwh in 1962 and to 30 billion kwh in 1965. The expan-
sion of electric traction on Soviet railroads accounted for 10.4 bil-
lion kwh of the 12.9-billion-kwh increase in the use of electric power
by this sector during 1945-60 and is expected to account for all but
1 billion kwh of the 15.7 billion kwh of growth anticipated during
1960-65.
* Following p. 12.
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SECRET
Estimated Indexes of Growth of Consumption of Electric Power
and of Output in the USSR, by Economic Sector, 1950-65
Consumption of electric power
Official Soviet index of industrial production
Computed index of industrial production
inn
900
aoo
700
600
500
400
/
Olt
I?
300
?
200
1965
Plan
1,000
900
800
700
600
Consumption of electric power
Volume of railroad traffic turnover (ton-kilometers)
1965
Plan
Consumption of electric power
Construction-installation work
RURAL ECONOMY
- Consumption of electric power
Official Soviet index of dgricultural production
Computed index of agricultural production
,000
/
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
inn
SECRET
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The rates of growth in consumption of electric power have
been most rapid for the rural economy, partly because of the extremely
low level of electrification prevailing in this sector in 1945. Consump-
tion rose from 0.4 billion kwh in 1945 to 9.5 billion kwh in 1960 and 11.5
billion kwh in 1961 and is planned to continue to increase at a rate of
about 21 percent per year to 25 billion kwh in 1965. Less than 10 percent
of the kolkhozes and 50 percent of the sovkhozes and tractor stations were
electrified in 1945. By 1960 the proportion using electricity in some form
had grown to 71 percent and 100 percent, respectively. Although all agri-
cultural enterprises are to be electrified by 1965, the level of the average
consumption of electric power by each electrified kolkhoz is to fall still
further behind that of each electrified sovkhoz as the result of the pro-
gressively fuller electrification of the sovkhozes. Whereas in 1950 the
average electrified kolkhoz used 66 percent as much power as the average
electrified sovkhoz, by 1960 the kolkhoz level had fallen to 39 percent,
and by 1965 it will fall further to 30 percent of the sovkhoz level.
In contrast to the situation in the other productive sec-
tors of the Soviet economy, the increasing electrification of the rural
economy is to be attributed as much to social and ideological as to di-
rect economic motives. The growth in rural electrification has been
directed mainly toward bringing the amenities of the city to the vil-
lage and to mechanizing the stationary work of the farm laborer.
Consumption of electric power by the urban economy in-
creased at an average annual rate of 12.6 percent during 1945-60, from
5.5 billion kwh in 1945 to 32.5 billion kwh in 1960. Although the share
of the urban economy in the total final consumption of electric power in
the USSR declined slightly -- from 14.9 percent in 1945 to 12.6 percent
in 1960 -- the urban economy has remained the second largest consuming
sector. Consumption by the urban sector of the economy is planned to
increase to 53 billion kwh in 1965, when the sector is to use only 11.6
percent of the total final consumption. Within the urban sector, how-
ever, consumption of electric power for living needs (including stores
and schools) has grown only 11 percent a year. The most rapidly growing
part of the urban sector of the economy (in terms of consumption of
electric power) has been the governmental part, which includes admin-
istrative, communications, military, and research facilities. Consump-
tion of electric power by governmental establishments increased 20 per-
cent a year during 1946-58 and 30 percent a year during 1956-58 alone.
Consumption of electric power for living needs per urban inhabitant in
the USSR remained about 10 to 11 percent of similar US expenditures dur-
ing 1945-60. Because of the much more rapid rate of growth of the total
final consumption in the USSR, however, living needs have taken an in-
creasingly smaller share of the total consumption of electric power in
the USSR, while at the same time such needs have taken an increasingly
larger share in the US.
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It is possible, if past trends in consumption of electric
power continue, that the planned levels of consumption by the construc-
tion and transportation sectors of the economy in 1965 will be exceeded
by as much as 2 billion and 5 billion kwh, respectively. It is equally
possible that consumption in the industrial sector of the economy will
fall short of the 1965 goal by as much as 5 billion kwh and that the
urban and rural sectors will each fail to achieve their goals by about
2 billion kwh. The total final consumption thus may fall 2 billion kwh
below the planned level of 1-54.8 billion kwh. The probability of such
a small underfulfillment cannot be established at this time.
C. Distribution by Area
The distribution of the final consumption of electric power in
the USSR during 1950, 1955, 1958, and 1965, by area, is shown in Table 5*
and on the map, Figure l.** Consumption of electric power in the eastern
areas has grown more rapidly than in any other area, having grown at a
rate 1.2 times the national average in the years 1950-58. Consumption
in these areas is planned to grow at a rate 1.4 times that planned for
the country as a whole during 1958-65. The share of the eastern areas in
the total final consumption of electric power in the USSR increased from
18 percent in 1950 to 22 percent in 1958 and is to grow to 31 percent in
1965. The only other area to increase its consumption more rapidly than
the national average was the non-RSFSR area of the European USSR, which
in 1950 had not yet fully repaired the war damages. Consumption in the
Urals area was about 20 percent of the national total in 1950, 1955, and
1958 but will decline to 16 percent in 1965. The fuel-short European
RSFSR used a smaller portion of the total final consumption of elec-
tric power in 1958 than in 1950 and will use a still smaller share in
1965.
The great variations by area in the structure of the allocation
of electric power in the USSR in 1958 are shown on Table 6. The Urals
area, which has a relatively greater concentration of heavy industry than
the other areas, allocates 85 percent to industry, whereas the national
allocation is about 75 percent to industry. The older areas of the Euro-
pean RSFSR allocate 67 percent. The comparatively slow rate of expansion
of the economy of the Urals area is reflected by the fact that it used
only 2 percent of its power for construction, whereas other areas more
closely approximated the national average of 4 percent. The influence of
the electrification of the Trans-Siberian Railroad is shown in the high
allocation to the transportation sector in the Urals area and in the
Table 5 follows
on p.
15.
***
Following p. 4,
Table 6 follows
above.
on p.
16.
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S-E-C-R-E-T
Table 5
Estimated Distribution of the Total Final Consumption of Electric Power in the USSR, by Area J
Selected Years, 1950-58, and 1965 Plan
1950
1955
1958
1965 Plan
Billion
Billion
Billion
Billion
Kilowatt-
Hours
Percent
Kilowatt-
Hours
Percent
Kilowatt-
Hours
Percent
Kilowatt-
Hours
Percent
European areas
RSFSR
29.4
36.9
51.9
34.8
67.7
32.8
130.9
28.8
Non-RSFSR
19.6
24.6
39.2
26.3
53.4
25.9
108.5
23.9
Urals area
16.3
20.4
29.0
19.5
4o.6
19.7
74.6
16.4
Eastern areas
RSFSR
Non-RSFSR
9.0 11.3 19.1 12.8 30.2 14.7 100.2 22.0
5.4 6.8 9.9 6.6 14.2 6.9 4o.6 8.9
Total final consumption 79.7 100.0 149.1 100.0 206.1 100.0 454.8 100.0
a. See the second footnote on p. 3, above.
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Table 6
Estimated Structure of Allocation of the Final Consumption
of Electric Power in the USSR, by Area and by Economic Sector a/
1958
European Areas
Industry
67
77
85
74
75
Construction
5
4
2
5
4
Transportation
3
2
5
8
4
Urban economy
21
13
7
9
14
Rural economy
4
4
1
4
3
a. See the second footnote on p. 3, above.
eastern areas. The higher proportional allocation of electric power to
the urban economy in the European RSFSR can be attributed mainly to con-
sumption by Leningrad and Moscow, with their highly developed urban util-
ities and many governmental establishments.
The estimated distribution of consumption of electric power by
industry in the USSR by area is shown in Table 7* and on the map, Fig-
ure 1.** The paramount position of the European RSFSR, which accounted
for one-third of all consumption of electric power by industry in 1950,
was still maintained in 1958. By 1965, however, the share of this area
is planned to decline to about one-fourth of consumption of electric
power by industry. The non-RSFSR area of the European USSR has con-
sistently used about 4 billion kwh less than the RSFSR for industry
and apparently will continue to do so in 1965. The share of the Urals
area in consumption of electric power by industry in the USSR, which
was between one-fourth and one-fifth of the total consumption during
1950-58, is planned to decline to less than one-fifth in 1965. The
eastern RSFSR used 12 to 15 percent of the total amount of power con-
sumed by Soviet industry during 1950-58 and, according to the Seven
Year Plan, apparently will use almost one-fourth of the power allo-
cated to industry in 1965.
Table 7 follows on p. 17.
Following p. 4, above.
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Estimated Distribution of Consumption of Electric Power
by Industry in the USSR, by Area
Selected Years, 1950-58, and 1965 Plan
Area
1950
1955
1958
1965 Plan
European areas
RSFSR
19.8
35.7
45.2
83.3
Non-RSFSR
15.1
30.9
41.1
77.0
Urals area
14.2
24.8
34.5
61.0
Eastern areas
RSFSR
7.1
14.4
22.5
80.4
Non-RSFSR
4.4
7.5
10.9
30.7
Total industry
60.6
113.3
154.2
332.4
a. See the second footnote on p. 3, above.
II. Branch Allocation of Consumption by Industry
Consumption of electric power by each branch of industry in the
USSR has steadily increased each year since 1945. The share allocated
to the fuel, ferrous metallurgical, and machine building and metal-
working branches of industry decreased from 59 percent in 1945 to 46 per-
cent in 1960 as a new industry, the nuclear materials industry, was intro-
duced into the consumption pattern and consumed increasingly larger amounts
of electric power, until by 1960 it was using almost 14 percent of all
electric power allocated to industry. It is apparently planned* that the
proportional allocation to the fuel, ferrous metallurgical, and machine
building and metalworking branches of industry will decline to 41 per-
cent by 1965 and that the share of the nuclear materials industry will
grow to more than 18 percent. In a sense, then, consumption of electric
power by the nuclear materials industry has grown at the expense of the
* Planned consumption of electric power by various branches of industry
in 1965 is derived from planned output by the respective branches of in-
dustry and from planned or projected trends in unit consumption of elec-
tric power.
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fuel, ferrous metallurgical, and machine building and metalworking
branches of industry, and other consumers as a whole have retained
roughly the same shares throughout the 20-year period. The estimated
consumption of electric power by Soviet industry is summarized by
branch of industry in Table 8* and shown graphically in Figure 5.**
The planned levels of consumption indicated for 1965 probably
will be achieved in most branches of industry. Present estimates indi-
cate, however, that consumption of electric power probably will be short
of the plan by about 4 billion kwh in the chemical industry and by 2 bil-
lion kwh in each of the following: the nonferrous metals industry; the
timber, woodworking, and paper industry; and light industry. It is esti-
mated that consumption of electric power will exceed the plan by about
3 billion kwh in the construction materials industry and by 5 billion
kwh in the machine building and metalworking industry and will approxi-
mately fulfill the plan in the other nonnuclear branches of industry.
If Soviet industry as a whole fails to fulfill the plan for consumption
of electric power by 5 billion kwh (as a projection of recent trends
would indicate) and if nonnuclear industry fails to achieve planned
levels of consumption by 2 billion kwh, the nuclear materials industry
will fall short of its planned consumption in 1965 by 3 billion kwh.
As the degree of underfulfillment of plans for consumption of electric
power by industry as a whole and by the nuclear materials industry in
particular is small enough to fall within the range of error attached to
the estimates of consumption by these consumers, it is estimated that
the plans for consumption of electric power will be approximately ful-
filled.
A comparison of the pattern of consumption of electric power
by various branches of industry in the USSR in 1958 with that in the
US shows that the relative allocation of electric power to the fuel
industry in the USSR was much greater and that the relative share
going to the metallurgical and the machine building and metalworking
industries was considerably greater than in the US. The relative
allocation to the timber, woodworking, and paper industry and to the
chemical and nuclear materials industries in the US was, however,
much greater than in the USSR, as is shown in Table 9.***
B. Major Nonnuclear Branches of Industry
Consumption of electric power by the fuel industry is esti-
mated to have reached 28.2 billion kwh in 1960 and 30.2 billion kwh in
1961, seven times the 1945 level and more than consumption by any other
* Table 8 follows on p. 19.
** Following p. 20.
*** Table 9 follows on p. 21.
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Estimated Allocation of Consumption of Electric Power in the USSR, by Branch of Industry J
Selected Years, 1945-62, and 1965 Plan
1945
1950
1955
1958
1960
1961
1962
1965
an
Billion
Billion
Billion
Billion
Billion
Billion
Billion
Billion
Kilowatt-
Kilowatt-
Kilowatt-
Kilowatt-
Kilowatt-
Kilowatt-
Kilowatt-
Kilowatt-
Branch of Industry
Hours
Percent
Hours
Percent
Hours
Percent
Hours
Percent
Hours
Percent
Hours
Percent
Hours
Percent
Hours
Percent
Fuel
4.2
14.6
9.1
15.0
17.4
15.3
24.7
16.0
28.2
14.8
30.2
14.2
32.6
13.7
42.5
12.8
Ferrous metals
5.6
19.7
11.0
18.2
19.0
16.8
24.7
16.1
31.5
16.5
35.0
16.5
39.5
16.6
54.9
16.5
Nonferrous metals
3.8
13.2
6.9
11.4
15.1
13.3
18.1
11.7
23.3
12.2
27.4
12.9
31.3
13.2
46.5
14.0
Chemical
3.2
11.1
6.1
10.0
10.8
9.5
14.8
9.6
18.0
9.4
20.3
9.5
22.6
9.5
34.7
l0.4
Machine building and metal-
working
7.0
24.7
10.9
18.0
17.9
15.8
23.2
15.1
27.8
14.6
30.3
14.2
33.3
14.0
38.0
11.4
Timber, woodworking, and paper
1.0
3.6
3.7
6.1
5.7
5.0
6.7
4.4
7.4
3.9
7.7
3.6
8.2
3.4
10.9
3.3
Construction materials
0.6
2.1
2.5
4.1
5.1
4.5
7.8
5.0
10.5
5.5
12.0
5.6
13.3
5.6
17.9
5.4
Light industry
1.4
5.0
3.6
5.9
6.0
5.3
7.3
4.7
8.1
4.3
8.5
4.0
9.5
4.0
12.9
3.9
Food industry
1.2
4.2
2.6
4.2
4.0
3.5
5.0
3.2
5.7
3.0
6.1
2.9
6.4
2.7
7.6
2.3
Nuclear materials
Negl.
Negl.
3.0
5.0
10.0
9.0
18.9
12.3
26.4
13.9
31.6
14.8
37.0
15.5
60.8
18.3
Other industry
o.4
1.8
1.3
2.1
2.3
2.0
3.0
1.9
3.6
1.9
3.9
1.8
4.3
1.8
5.7
1.7
Total
28.4
100.0
60.6
100.0
113.3
100.0
154.2
100.0
190.5
100.0
213.0
100.0
238.0
100.0
332.4
100.0
a. Because of rounding, data may not add to the totals shown, and percentages may not be directly derived from the absolute data shown.
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SECRET
Estimated Consumption of Electric Power in the USSR
by Branch of Industry, 1945-1965
Fuels
Ferrous metals
Nonferrous metals
Chemicals
Machine building and metalworking
Other industries
Nuclear materials
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Table 9
Estimated Consumption of Electric Power in the USSR and the US
by Branch of Industry
1958
Billion
Kilowatt-Hours
Percent
of Industry
USSR as a Per-
Branch of Industry
USSR
US
USSR
US
cent of US
Fuel
24.7
21.2
16.0
6.3
117
Metallurgical
42.8
82.3
27.8
24.5
52
Chemical
14.8
51.8
9.6
15.4
29
Machine building
and metalworking
23.2
39.5
15.1
11.7
59
Timber, woodworking,
and paper
'6.7
34.1
4.4
10.1
20
Construction materials
7.8
13.0
5.0
3.9
60
Light industry
7.3
15.2
4.7
4.5
48
Food industry
5.0
15.2
3.2
4.5
33
Nuclear materials
18.9
58.0
12.3
17.3
33
Other industry
3.0
5.9
1.9
1.8
51
Total
154.2
336.2
100.0
100.0
45
group of industries. The rapid growth during 1945-60 was a result not
only of the 274-percent increase in production of commercial fuel* but
also of an 82-percent increase in the specific consumption of electric
power per ton of standard fuel produced. Within the fuel industry the
coal industry has been by far the largest consumer, although the pro-
portional allocation to the petroleum and natural gas industry has been
gradually increasing, as shown in Table 10.**
The amount of electric power needed to produce 1 metric tones
of standard fuel in the coal industry increased during 1945-60 by
94 percent as a result of greater mechanization and the higher pro-
portion of cleaning activity, but the corresponding figure in the oil
* Measured in standard fuel units, defined as having 7,000 kilocal-
ories per kilogram.
Table 10 follows on p. 22.
Tonnages are given in metric tons throughout this report.
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Table 10
Estimated Allocation of Consumption of Electric Power by the Fuel Industry in the USSR J
Selected Years, 1945-60, and 1965 Plan
1945
1950
1960
1965 Plan
Billion
Billion
Billion
Billion
Billion
Branch of the
Kilowatt-
Kilowatt-
Kilowatt-
Kilowatt-
Kilowatt-
Fuel Industry
Hours
Percent
Hours
Percent
Hours
Percent
Hours
Percent
Hours
Percent
Coal'
2.5
59
5.2
57
10.1
58
15.3
54
19.1
45
Petroleum and natural gas
1.4
33
3.3
36
6.2
36
11.8
42
22.1
52
Peat
0.3
8
0.6
6
0.8
4
0.7
3
0.8
2
Oil shale and manufac-
tured gas
Negl.
Negi.
0.1
1
0.3
2
0.4
1
0.5
1
Total
4.2
100
9.1
100
17.4
100
28.2
100
42.5
100
a. Because of rounding, data may not add to the totals shown, and percentages may not be directly derived from the absolute data
shown.
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and natural gas industry was at the same level in 1960 as in 1945.
The latter industry increased its levels of electrification con-
siderably but was able to offset these increases by stressing the
development of less power-intensive methods of petroleum extraction.
It is estimated that consumption of electric power by the fuel in-
dustry in 1962 will be 32.6 billion kwh and that the planned consump-
tion for 1965 is 42.5 billion kwh. It is estimated that the actual
consumption will be close to this level, as consumption goals of the
coal industry probably will be underfulfilled by about the same amount
that consumption goals of the petroleum industry will be overfulfilled,
largely as a result of decreased production in the coal industry and
increased production in the petroleum industry.
The ferrous metallurgical industry was the largest consumer of
electric power in Soviet industry throughout most of the postwar period,
as consumption grew from 5.6 billion kwh in 1945 to 31.5 billion kwh in
1960 and 35.0 billion kwh in 1961. During 1945-51, consumption of elec-
tric power per ton of finished product decreased by 30 percent as a re-
sult of increasing efficiency in operation, but since 1951 the expendi-
tures for electric power, per ton of product, have grown by 21 percent
as a result of the processing of progressively leaner ores, the use of
more power-intensive production techniques, and the increasing complexity
of the product mix. Within the industry the relative shares of electric
power allocated to mining operations have remained about the same in
spite of more complex processing. The shares allocated to coke and
finishing operations have increased as a result of the increasing com-
plexity of product mix, whereas the shares allocated to basic processing
and to miscellaneous auxiliary operations have decreased as a result of
increasing efficiencies in operation. It is estimated that consumption
of electric power by the ferrous metallurgical industry in 1962 will be
close to 40 billion kwh and that the planned consumption in 1965 is
54.9 billion kwh. It is estimated that the plan for production of steel
in the USSR in 1965 will be exceeded but that the plan for consumption of
electric power by the ferrous metallurgical industry will not be overful-
filled. A continuation of trends over the past 5 years would indicate
that the overfulfiliment of production of steel will be more than offset
by an underfulfillment in the rather ambitious plan for increasing con-
sumption of electric power per ton of product.
The nonferrous metallurgical industry is estimated to have used
27.4 billion kwh in 1961 compared with 15.1 billion kwh in 1955 and
3.8 billion kwh in 1945. Throughout 1945-61, there has been a con-
tinuing annual reduction of 1 to 2 percent in consumption of electric
power per ton of product as a result of increasing efficiencies in con-
sumption of electric power. It is estimated that consumption by the
nonferrous metallurgical industry will reach 31.3 billion kwh in 1962;
that the plan for 1965 is 46.5 billion kwh, of which 32.6 billion kwh
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are to be used for light metals; and that the actual consumption of
electric power by the branch in 1965 will be about 2 billion kwh less
than planned because of the probable underfulfillment in the plan for
production of the copper industry. The relative shares of the various
nonferrous metals industries in consumption of electric power by
branches are estimated to have changed as shown in Table ll.*
The chemical industry has consistently used about 10 percent
of the total industrial consumption of electric power in the postwar
period. Consumption is estimated to have been 20.3 billion kwh in
1961, is expected to be about 22.6 billion kwh in 1962, and is planned
to grow to about 34.7 billion kwh in 1965. Consumption of electric
power per ruble of output by the chemical industry has gradually de-
clined as a result of the declining relative importance within this
branch of industry of power-intensive electrochemical production and
of increasing efficiency in the use of-electric power. The estimated
allocation of electric power among the major components of the chemi-
cal industry is shown in Table 12.**
Within the nitrogen group, there has been an increasing allo-
cation of electric power to production of heavy water by electrolysis.
It is estimated that consumption of electric power by the chemical
industry may be about 4 billion kwh less than planned in 1965 as a
result of the probable underfulfillment of production goals.
The Soviet machine building and metalworking industry is esti-
mated to have increased its consumption of electric power from 7.0 bil-
lion kwh in 1945 to 10.9 billion kwh in 1950, 17.9 billion kwh in 1955,
27.8 billion kwh in 1960, and 30.3 billion kwh in 1961. About three-
fourths of this power goes to machine building and the remainder to
metalworking and repair. Consumption of electric power per ton of
ferrous metals used by this branch of industry is estimated to have
increased only slightly in the postwar period. An approximate in-
crease of 50 percent in consumption of electric power for technolog-
ical uses (such as electric furnaces, heat treatment, and welding) per
ton of ferrous metals used has been offset by an equivalent reduction
in the amount of power used for such purposes as lighting and venti-
lation. During 1950-58 the amounts of power used for the manufacturing
of producers durables increased from 55 percent to 67 percent of the
total power consumption by the machine building industry. The amounts
of power estimated to have been allocated to consumers durables increased
Table 11 follows on p. 25.
Table 12 follows on p. 26.
xxx Based on estimated production of the chemical industry in 1965 and
a projection of the relationship between consumption of electric power
and output of the chemical industry during 1950-60.
-24-
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Table 11
Estimated Allocation of Consumption of Electric Power by the Nonferrous Metallurgical Industry in the USSR
Selected Years, 1950-60, and 1965 Plan
Branch
1950
1955
1960
1965 Plan
of the
Nonferrous
Billion
Billion
Billion
Billion
Metallurgical
Kilowatt-
Kilowatt-
Kilowatt-
Kilowatt-
Industry
Hours
Percent
Hours
Percent
Hours
Percent
Hours
Percent
Light metals
3.9
57
9.8
65
11i.7
63
32.6
70
Copper
1.0
11-
1.7
11
3.0
13
5.1
11
Lead-zinc
0.7
10
1.5
9
2.3
10
3.0
6
Nickel-cobalt
0.6
9
1.0
7
1.9
8
)+.0-
9
Other
0.7
10
1.1
8
1.4+
6
1.8
4
Total
6.9
100
15.1
100
23.3
100
46.5
100
a. Because of rounding, data may not add to the totals shown, and percentages may not be derived from the
absolute figures shown.
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Estimated Allocation of Consumption of Electric Power by the Chemical Industry in the USSR a
Selected Years, 1950-60, and 1965 Plan
1950
1955
1960
1965 Plan
Billion
Billion
Billion
Billion
Branch of the
Kilowatt-
Kilowatt-
Kilowatt-
Kilowatt-
Chemical Industry
Hours
Percent
Hours
Percent
Hours
Percent
Hours
Percent
Mineral chemicals and
mineral fertilizers
0.3
5
0.6
5
0.9
5
1.4
4
Soda group
0.7
12
1.3
12
2.4
11
4.5
13
Nitrogen group
2.4
39
4.1
38
6.1
37
9.0
26
Other inorganic chemicals
1.4
23
2.4-
22
3.8
22
5.8
17
Rubber group
0.7
11
1.0
9
1.6
9
4.6
13
Other organic chemicals
(including synthetics)
0.4
7
1.0
10
2.4
12
8.2
24
Other chemical products
0.2
3
0.4
4
0.8
4
1.2
3
Total
6.1
100
10.8
100
18.0
100
34.7-
100
a. Because of rounding, data may not add to the totals shown, and percentages may not be directly derived
from the absolute data shown.
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from 2 percent to 5 percent in the same period, whereas consumption of
electric power by military end items is estimated to have fallen from
43 percent of the total consumption by machine building in 1950 to
27 percent in 1958. A probable overfulfillment in the production plan
for 1965 for machine building and metalworking together with a continu-
ation of the past trend in the relationship between consumption of elec-
tric power and the value of output indicates that consumption of electric
power by this branch of industry in 1965 may be about 5 billion kwh more
than the 38 billion kwh planned.
Other industries have not individually been major consumers of
electric power, although they have, in total, used large amounts of
electric power.
C. Distribution by Area
The branch structure of consumption of electric power by industry
in the various areas of the USSR showed two trends during 1950-58 that
are worthy of note. Most noticeable was the introduction into the con-
sumption pattern in the Urals and eastern areas of a substantial allo-
cation of electric power to the nuclear materials industry accompanied
by a decline in the share of other industries in power consumption by
area. Consumption of electric power by the nuclear materials industry
grew during 1950-58 to 25 percent of the total power consumption by in-
dustry in the Urals area, 35 percent in the eastern RSFSR, and 11 percent
in Central Asia and Kazakhstan. Except for this development, however,
there has been a general tendency throughout most areas for the propor-
tional allocation of power to any one branch of industry to decrease and
for the consumption pattern of the area to become more diversified, as
areas have become more balanced in their industrial development. The esti-
mated allocation of consumption of electric power by branch of industry and
by area in the USSR in 1958 is shown in Table 13.*
According to plans, the nuclear materials industry is to account
for an even greater percentage of consumption of electric power in the
eastern RSFSR in 1965, when it is to use 50 percent of the power allocated
to industry in the area. In 1965 the nuclear materials industry is still
to use 25 percent of the power consumed by industry in the Urals and
13 percent in the Central Asian republics and Kazakhstan. The estimated
planned structure of the branch allocation of consumption of electric
power by industry and by area in the USSR in 1965 is shown in Table 14.E
Table 13 follows on p. 28.
Table 14 follows on p. 29 (text continued on p. 30).
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Estimated Consumption of Electric Power in the USSR
by Branch of Industry and by Area a/
1958
European Areas
Eastern Areas
Branch of Industry
RSFSR
Non-RSFSR
Urals Area
RSFSR
Non-RSFSR
Total
Fuel
6.7
9.4
3.8
3.2
1.6
24.7
Ferrous metals
2.8
11.4
7.8
1.7
1.0
24-.7
Nonferrous metals
3.2
3.1
5.8
3.5,
2.5
18.1
Chemical
5.4-
4.4
1.8
1.1
2.1
14.8
Machine building and
metalworking
11.3
5.4
3.4
2.5
0.6
23.2
Timber, woodworking,
and paper
3.4
1.0
1.2
1.0
0.1
6.7
Construction materials
3.5
2.2
1.0
0.4
0.7
7.8
Light industry
5.4
1.1
0.1
0.4
0.3
7.3
Food industry
1.7
2.0
0.3
0.5
0.5
5.0
Nuclear materials
0.7
0.5
8.6
7.9
1.2
18.9
Other industry
1.1
0.6
0.7
0.3
0.3
3.0
Total industry
45.2
41.1
34.5
22.5
10.9
154.2
a. See the second footnote on p. 3, above.
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Table 14
Estimated Consumption of Electric Power in the USSR
by Branch of Industry and by Area a/
1965 Plan
European Areas
Eastern Areas
Branch of Industry
RSFSR
Non-RSFSR
Urals Area
RSFSR
Non-RSFSR
Total
Fuel
12.3
14.9
5.6
5.8
3.9
42.5
Ferrous metals
6.4
24.2
15.6
4.6
4.1
54.9
Nonferrous metals
8.3
5.4
9.4
15.5
7.9
46.5
Chemical
12.3
9.4
4.5
4.4
4.1
34.7
Machine building and
metalworking
17.5
9.4
5.5
4.3
1.3
38.0
Timber, woodworking,
and paper
4.8
1.7
1.4
2.7
0.3
10.9
Construction materials
7.6
4.3
2.2
1.4
2.4
17.9
Light industry
8.7
2.7
0.1
0.5
0.9
12.9
Food industry
2.4
3.2
0.4
0.8
0.8
7.6
Nuclear materials
0.8
0.8
15.1
40.0
4.1
60.8
Other industries
2.2
1.1
1.2
0.4
0.8
5.7
Total industry
83.3
77.0
61.0
80.4
30.7
332.4
a. See the second footnote on p. 3, above. Because of rounding, data may not add to the
totals shown, and percentages may not be directly derived from the absolute data shown.
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III. Consumption by the Nuclear Materials Industry
Starting from insignificant levels in the immediate postwar
period, consumption of electric power by the nuclear materials indus-
try in the USSR is estimated to have grown to 26.4 billion kwh in 1960
and 31.6 billion kwh in 1961. Apparently it is planned that the indus-
try continue its rapid growth and that it will use close to 37 billion
kwh in 1962 and 61 billion kwh in 1965.* The estimated consumption of
electric power by the nuclear materials industry in the USSR and in the
US is,given in Table 15** and is shown graphically in Figure 3. It
is estimated that in 1961 the nuclear materials industry in the USSR
used 56 percent as much electric power as did the USAEC; that the Soviet
industry will use 68 percent as much in 1962; and that, if planned future
changes are carried out, it will be consuming in 1965 significantly greater
amounts of electric power than the US nuclear materials industry. If, as
is quite possible, Soviet consumption does not exceed 58 billion kwh in
1965, it will still exceed that of the US. Not until 1965 will the nu-
clear materials industry in the USSR use 18 percent of the electric power
allocated to industry, a share attained by the US in 1956, when the con-
sumption by the US industry reached its peak.
The major share of the power used by the Soviet nuclear materials
industry has gone to the gaseous diffusion program for production of ura-
nium enriched in U-235. It is estimated that gaseous diffusion plants
in the USSR used close to 18 billion kwh in 1960 and 21 billion kwh in
1961. It also is estimated that gaseous diffusion plants are planned to
use about 25 billion kwh in 1962 and almost twice this amount in 1965.
Compared with the US program, the Soviet nuclear materials industry
apparently uses a much larger proportion of consumption of electric
power for technological uses, such as electrolysis and electric furnaces.
B. Distribution by Area
The Urals and the eastern RSFSR together have used about 80 to
90 percent of the electric power estimated to have been consumed by the
nuclear materials industry in the USSR. The amounts of electric power
* The figures given for the planned consumption of electric power by
the Soviet nuclear materials industry in 1962 and 1965 are derived from
national and area power balances based on fragmentary Soviet data and
thus are estimated plans rather than directly reported plans.
** Table 15 follows on p. 31.
XXX Following p. 10, above.
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Table 15
Estimated Consumption of Electric Power
by the Nuclear Materials Industry in the USSR and the US
Selected Years, 1945-61, and 1962 and 1965 Plans
Consumption
Percent
(Billion
of Industrial
Kilowatt-Hours)
Consumption
USSR as a Percent
Year
USSR
USAEC
of the US
USSR
US
1945
Negl.
3.0
Negl.
Negl.
2.2
1950
3.0
3.8
79
5.0
2.1
1955
10.0
50.1
20
9.0
15.6
1956
13.2
60.7
22
10.4
17.7
1958
18.9
58.0
33
12.3
17.3
1960
26.4
57.9
46
13.8
13.5
1961
31.6
56.2
56
14.8
13.1
1962 Plan
37.0
54.1
68
15.5
11.4
1965 Plan
60.8
50.6
120
18.3
8.7
a. See the first footnote on p. 30, above.
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estimated to have been consumed by the nuclear materials industry in the
USSR, distributed by area, are given for selected years in Table 16 and
are shown on the map, Figure l.*
Table 16
Estimated Distribution of Consumption of Electric Power
by the Nuclear Materials Industry in the USSR, by Area
Selected Years, 1950-60, and 1965 Plan
Area
1950
1955
1958
1960
1965 Plan
European areas
RSFSR
0.3
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.8
Non-RSFSR
0.1
0.8
0.5
0.8
0.8
Urals area
1.6
4.6
8.6
9.9
15.1
Eastern areas
RSFSR
0.7
3.1
7.9
13.5
1+0.0
Non-RSFSR
0.3
0.7
1.2
1.5
1+.1
Total
3.0
10.0
18.9
26.4
60.8
a. See the second footnote on p. 3, above.
The nuclear materials industry in the Urals area has consistently
used about half of the electric power allocated to the industry, having
increased its consumption from 1.6 billion kwh in 1950 to 1+.6 billion kwh
in 1955 and 9.9 billion kwh in 1960. Soviet plans apparently call for
consumption to increase to an estimated level of 15.1 billion kwh in 1965.
Until recently, the second largest consumption by area has been
in the eastern RSFSR, where consumption is estimated to have grown from
0.7 billion kwh in 1950 to 3.1 billion kwh in 1955 and 7.9 billion kwh
in 1958. It is estimated, however, that nuclear materials enterprises ;-n
the eastern RSFSR in 1960 consumed 13.5 billion kwh -- more than similar
enterprises in the Urals.
An analysis of Soviet plans indicates that consumption of electric
power during 1960-65 by the nuclear materials industry in the eastern
Following p. 4, above.
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RSFSR will grow by 27 billion kwh, an amount in excess of the total con-
sumption by the nuclear materials industry in the USSR in 1960 and equal
to 80 percent of the total growth in consumption by the industry in the
period. Plans apparently call for consumption of 40 billion kwh, two-
thirds of the total consumption by the Soviet nuclear materials industry,
in the eastern RSFSR in 1965. This amount will be substantially the same
as that to be consumed by the three gaseous diffusion plants in the Oak
Ridge - Paducah - Portsmouth complex in the US. If the USSR fails to
fulfill its apparent plan for consumption of electric power by the nuclear
materials industry in 1965, the underfulfillment probably will occur in
the eastern RSFSR.
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SECRET
SECRET
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