TIN IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC

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• Collection: General CIA Records
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• Document Page Count: 48
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 8, 2013
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 1, 1961
• Content Type: REPORT

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TIN IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC
December 1961
NOT TO BE REPRODUCED IN WHOLE OR
IN PART WITHOUT THE PERMISSION OF
THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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NOTICE
This report has been loaned to the recipient by-
the Central Intelligence Agency. When it has
served its purpose it should be destroyed or
'returned to the:
CIA Librarian
Central intelligence Agency
Washington 25, D. C.
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TIN IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC
CIA/RR ER 61-52
? CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
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FOREWORD
The purpose of this report is to assess the supply of and demand for
tin in the Sino-Soviet Bloc and to estimate the potential significance
of Soviet supplies of tin to the Free World. The following steps have
been taken in order to assess these problems: estimates of production
of tin? have been developed, taking into account the producing potential
within the Sino-Soviet Bloc; the probable demand for tin in the countries
of the Bloc was estimated; and data on trade were tabulated and evaluated.
The text includes the methodology employed in deriving the estimates.
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CONTENTS
Summary
I. Introduction
II. Resources
Page
1
3
3
A.
USSR
4
1. Quantity of Reserves
4
2. Quality of Ore
4
3. Location of Deposits
5
B.
Communist China
5
1. Quantity of Reserves
5
2. Quality of Ore
6
3. Location of Deposits
6
C.
East Germany
6
D.
North Vietnam
6
E.
Poland
7
III.
Production
7
A.
USSR
7
1. Mining and Concentrating
7
2. Metallurgical Reduction
11
3. Production of Secondary Tin
12
B.
Communist China
13
1. Output from Mines
13
2. Output of Concentrate
15
3. Smelting and Refining
15
C.
North Vietnam
15
D.
European Satellites
16
1.- East Germany .
16
2. Poland
17
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Page
TV.
Trade
A. East-West
B. Intra-Bloc . . . . . . . . ...... . .......
17
17
18
V.
Domestic Consumption
19
A. USSR
19
B. European Satellites
23
C. Communist China, North Korea, and North Vietnam
?
. ?
24
VI.
Stockpile
24
VII.
Internal Costs and Prices
26
A. USSR
26
B. Communist China
29
C. East Germany
30
Appendixes
Appendix A. Principal Tin Enterprises in the Sino-Soviet
Bloc 31
35
39
Appendix B. Methodology
Appendix C. Ruble/Dollar Price Ratios
Tables
1. Estimated Production of Prtimal7 Tin in the Sino-Soviet
Bloc, 1950-60 8
2. Estimated Production of Primary Tin in the USSR, Selected
Years, 1940-60 and 1965 9
3. Estimated Production of Primary Tin in Communist China,
1950-60 and 1965 14
4. Estimated Net Exports of Tin from the Sino-Soviet Bloc to
the Free World, 1956-60 18
4
STAT
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Page
5. Trade in Tin Within the Sino-Soviet Bloc, 1960 20
6. Estimated Domestic Consumption of Tin in the
Sino-Soviet Bloc, 1950-60
7. Estimated Domestic Consumption of Tin in Se-
lected Countries, 1960
8. Estimated Percentage Distribution of Domestic
Consumption of Tin in the USSR and the US, by
Major Consuming Sector, 1937 and 1955
9. Estimated Balance of Supply and Demand for Tin
in the Sino-Soviet Bloc, 1950-60
21
22
23
25
10. Ruble/Dollar Price Ratios for Selected Commod-
ities in the USSR 27
11. Principal Tin Mining Areas and Processing Facil-
ities in the USSR 32
12. Principal Tin Mining Areas and Processing Facil-
ities in Communist China 34
13. Estimated Production of Tinplate in the USSR,
1950-60 and 1965 36
14. Estimated Consumption of Tin in the USSR,
1950-60 and 1965 37
Maps
Following Page
Figure 1. World Production of Mined Tin, 1960 . . 8
Figure 2. Sino-Soviet Bloc: Principal Tin Mining
Areas and Processing Facilities . . . . 10
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TIN IN THE SINOSOVIET BLOC
Summary
During the 1950's the Sino-Soviet Bloc became a major producer of
tin. In 1950 the Bloc produced about 14,000 tons* of tin, which was
about 8'percent of the world total, and production by 1960 had nearly'
quadrupled, reaching a total of about 52,000 tons, or almost one-fourth
of the world total. Plans for 1965 indicate another substantial increase
to about 80,000 to 85,000 tone,** and as far as can be determined at this
time, the Bloc should have no serious difficulty in achieving this goal.
Tin reserves in the Bloc are sufficiently large to support an annual pro-
duction of this magnitude for many years, and although the ores generally
are of low grade, the technology of the Bloc is adequate to handle suc-
cessfully whatever processing problems may be encountered.
Predominant among the tin-producing countries- in the Sino-Soviet Bloc
is Communist China. From 1950 to 1960, China's share of the tin produced
by the Bloc increased from about 44 percent to about 63 percent, and by ,
1965 this shareis expected to increase to about 67 percent. The second
largest producer of tin in the Bloc, the USSR, in 1960 produced about
35 percent of the total output of the Bloc, whereas East Germany and '
North Vietnam, the only other producers, accounted for only about 2 per-
cent.
Consumption of. tin in the Sino-Soviet Bloc, although not growing as
rapidly as production, has increased nearly 150 percent during 1950-60,
t'rbm 15,000 tons to about 38,000 tons. This rate of growth is not ex-
pected to change materially, and by 1965 the annual consumption of tin
should be about 55,000 tons. The USSR is by. far the largest consumer,
taking about two-thirds of the annual available supply. Consumption
of about 23,000 to 24,000 tons of tin in the USSR in 1960, however, con-
trasts sharply with the consumption of 82,000 tons in the US. The con-
trast is even greater if levels of consumption in the two countries are
compared on a per capita basis. In the USSR in 1960, consumption of tin
per capita was about 0.11 kilogram, and in the US 0.46 kilogram. One of
the principal uses of tin in both countries is in tinplate, the bulk of
which is fabricated into tin cans for preserving food. In 1960 the USSR
produced only 6.4 percent as much tinplate as the US.
* Tonnages are given in metric tons throughout this report.
** Including about 41100o tons of secondary metal.
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Communist China, the only country in the Sino-Soviet Bloc that pro-
duces a surplus of tin, also is the only producer whose costs of produc-
tion are believed to compare favorably with those of the major producers
in the Free World. Information clearly indicates that costs of producing
tin in the USSR and East Germany are high, but as long as production in
the Bloc exceeds consumption, the continuation of these high-cost opera-
tions is somewhat perplexing. .Were either the USSR or East Germany to
discontinue production at their less efficient plants, however, their
dependence on the tin industry of China would increase greatly, and thus
far neither the USSR nor East Germany has been willing to take these
steps. On the contrary, the plans of the USSR in particular indicate a
trend in the opposite direction -- not only to increase production of
tin but also to reduce costs of production.
The pattern of Bloc trade in tin has altered considerably in recent
years. From the end of World War II through 1955, the Sino-Soviet Bloc
was a net importer of tin from the Free World, but in 1956 the Bloc be-
came a net exporter and has maintained that position -- fundamentally
because of the rapid increase in production of tin in Communist China.
When the quantity of tin exported by the Bloc to the Free World sud-
denly reached sizable proportions in 1958, producers of tin in the Free
World became greatly concerned. At that time, annual production of tin
in the Free World exceeded consumption, and efforts were being made
through the International _Tin Council (ITC) to control the surplus of
production in order to maintain a stable market price. By 1958, how-
ever, the additional supplies of tin from the Bloc were too l&rge to be
accommodated by the ITC, and the plan for stabilizing the market col-
lapsed. An a result, the price of tin in the world market dropped pre-
cipitously. The USSR subsequently agreed to cooperate with the ITC by
limiting exports of tin to the West to 13,500 tons in 1959 and since
that time has limited annual exports of tin to the Free World to the
same quantity or less. Other countries in the Bloc, mainly China, also
have exported tin to the Free World, but such exports were relatively
small through 1960.
1
Early in 1961 the world tin situation again changed drastically.
Free World consumption exceeded available supplies, and, for the im-
mediate future at least, a continuing shortage of supplies of tin in
the West is likely. In the Bloc, however, in spite of a rising trend
in consumption, planned increases in production are such that an annual
surplus of about 25,000 to 30,000 tons may be available for export by
1965. In the event that exports of tin by the Bloc to the Free World
4
then increase to this level, Communist China most probably will be the
principal exporter to the Free World.
*
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Introduction
In spite of the widespread occurrence of tin minerals, commercial
deposits of tin are found in relatively few areas of the world, princi-
pally in the less developed countries of Asia, Africa, and South America
and in China and the USSR. Over the years, in part because of the neces-
sity of depending on such remote sources for this strategic raw material,
all the major industrial countries of the world have been engaged in pro-
grams to minimize their requirements for tin. Although some successes
have,been achieved through technological advances and the,development of
substitutes, certain tin alloys have continued to be essential for many
industrial applications.
World production and consumption of tin have fluctuated widely for
many years, and, in general, until 1959-60, production exceeded demand.
Since the early 1930's, continued international efforts have been made
to correct the imbalance between the demand for the metal and the level
of production. With the fulfillment of the US program for stockpiling
tin, which absorbed much of the Free World's annual surplus during
1950-55) the International Tin Agreement of 1956 attempted to maintain
a stable market price for tin principally by establishing export quotas
for the tin-producing countries. These export quotas had the effect of
curtailing production in the major tin-producing countries which not only
are underdeveloped economically but which also are dependent on exports
of tin as a major source of foreign exchange.
The significance of exports of tin from the Sino-Soviet Bloc to the
Free World has varied over the years in accordance with the world supply
situation. Exports during the last half of the 1950's contributed to
upsetting the regulated stability of the tin market in the Free World.
Since late 1960, howeverl,the supply of tin in the Free World,has been
deficient, and the industrial West could absorb additional, supplies of
tin from the Bloc.
II. Resources
Of an estimated total world reserve of 7.6 million tons of tin con-
tained in ore, the Sino-Soviet Bloc has about one-third, or 2.5 million
tons. 1/* The estimated,distribution of these reserves Within the Bloc
a
STAT
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is as follows*:
Country ,Thousand Tons
USSR r.500
Communist China 1,900-
East Germany N.A.
North Vietnam 75
Poland Negl.
Isanimum Total 2,475
A. USSR
1. Quantity of Reserves
- Although the USSR is known to have numerous deposits of tin,
information on the magnitude of the reserves is incomplete. In 1944,
Soviet officials claimed that reserves of tin ore in the USSR were ex-
ceeded only by those of Southeast Asia (presumably including southern
China) and Bolivia. 2/ This statement implied a Soviet reserve of be-
tween 300,000 and 500,000 tons of contained metal. Since that time the
USSR has continued to explore for tin ores. These-efforts have been suc-
cessful to some extent, for increases in tin reserves'have been reported
as recently as 1959.?/ On the basis of this information the tin reserves
of the USSR as of 19 sare estimated to be about 500,000 tons.
2. Quality of Ore
, Pure cassiterite (tin dioxide), the mineral from which nearly
all the world's tin is produced, theoretically contains 78.6 percent tin,
and the ore containing this mineral occurs in two types of deposits --
placer and lode.** Placer ore has a much lower tin content than lode ore,
less than 0.3 percent compared with a range of 1 to 8 percent, 1.41 but it
generally contains fewer impurities and is therefore easier to concentrate.
In the Free World, at least one-half of the tin reserves are in placer de-
posits, 2/ whereas only 9 percent of the tin reserves of the USSR are in
such deposits.
Another source of tin is stannite, also known as tin pyrite.
At present, stannite ore is not being exploited commercially, but' a
* The methodology for estimating reserves of tin in the Bloc follows
in the paragraphs below.
** Placer ore can be mined by some type of dredging or open-pit method,
but lode ore usually is mined by more expensive underground methods.
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technological process for ,the recovery of tin from stannite ore reportedly
is being developed in the USSR. 2/ The theoretical tin content in pure
stannite is 27.5 percent, but the high content of sulfur and copper im-
pedes efficient recovery of the tin. Outside the USSR the only occur-
rences of stannite ore. that appear to be of commercial interest are in
Bolivia. 2/
3. Location of Deposits
'Virtually all the tin reserves in the USSR are located in
East Siberia and the Soviet Far East. As of 1 January 1938 the prospected
tin reserves of the USSR ,in.terms of metal content were distributed geo-
graphically as follows 12/:
Area
Percent
RSFSR
81.1
Chi-,tinskaya Oblast
29.2
Yakutskaya ASR
37.2
Primorskiy Kray
14.7
Kazakh SSR
10.8
Kirgiz SSR
7.0
Tadzhik SSR
1.1
Total reserves
100.0
Although geological prospecting since World War II has resulted in the
discovery of tin deposits in other regions of the USSR, the relative tn-
portance of the two largest areas of tin reserves, Yakutskaya ASSR 11/
and Chitinskaya Oblast, 12/ has not changed. Significant additional
reserves have been discovered in Magadanskaya Oblast and in the Khaba-
rovskiy and Primorskiy Krays in the Soviet Far East.
B. Communist China'
1. Quantity of Reserves
Although definite information on the extent of the resources'
of tin in Communist China is not available, reserves are believed to be
very large. Estimates for pre-Communist China range from 650,000 tons 13./
to 1.9 million tons of tin contained in ore, and during the past 10
years additional discoveries have been claimed. In 1958 the Vice Minister
of Geology stated that China' had the largest resources of tin in the
world. 12/ For comparison, Malaya, which heretofore has been considered
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to have the largest resources, is estimated to possess tin reserves of
about 1.5 million tons of metal contained in ore. lg In view of the
official nature of the claim made for the largest reserves in the world,
the current tin reserves in China may approach in magnitude the upper
limit of the range of estimates made in the pre-Communist era.
. Quality of Ore
Tin ore occurs in Communist China in both lode and placer
deposits, but probably most of the reserves are contained in lode de-
posits. Some of the lode ores have a tin content of at least 2 per-
cent, 12/ and most of them contain such impurities as iron, copper,
zinc, lead, antimony, bismuth, and arsenic. The removal of these metals,
necessary to produce commercial grades of tin, is reported to be very
difficult. lf./ Furthermore, the grains of cassiterite in these ores are
unusually small, a factor that inhibits a high recovery of the tin con-
tent. 12/
3. Location of Deposits
Of the total tin reserves in Communist China, probably about
80 percent is located in Yunnan Province in the Ko-chiu area (23023' N
103009' E). 22/ The remainder of the tin resources of China consists of
scattered deposits in south and southwestern China, particularly in the
Kwangsi Chuang Autonomous Region and in Kiangsi, Hunan, and Kwangtung
Provinces. 21/ Recent geological prospecting programs have resulted in
reports of the discovery of additional deposits of tin ore in far western
and northwestern China. As yet, however, very little is known of the
size, quality, and economic potential of these occurrences.
C. East Germany
East Germany is the only European Satellite with any appreciable
tin reserves, but the quantity of the reserves is not known with any
certainty. 22 / All the reserves are in lode deposits located in the
Erzgebirge(Saxony Ore Mountains) near the Czechoslovak border of East
Germany. Ores now being mined there are complex and have a metal con-
tent ranging between 0.30 and 0.35 percept tin. 21/
D. North Vietnam
North Vietnam also has sufficient reserves to support a small
but growing tin industry. ELV These reserves reportedly consist of
50 million tons of ore with a tin content of 0.15 percent, or about
75,000 tons of tin. 25../
6
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E. Poland
Deposits of law-grade tin ore are located in western Poland. In
1951 the ore was reported to contain 0.01 percent tin, not sufficient to
justify exploitation. 26/
III. Production ,
During 1950-60 the annual production of primary tin in the Sino-Soviet
Bloc increased from an estimated total of about 14,000 tons to \about
-52,000 tons, as shown in Table 1,* or from about 8 percent of the world's
total production in 1950 to,about 25 percent in 1960. 27/ Within the
Bloc, Communist China accounted for about 63 percent of the tin produced
in 1960, the USSR produced about 35 percent, and East Germany and North
Vietnam each accounted for about 1 percent. The relative importance of
the countries of the Bloc in relation to the other tin-producing countries
of the world is shown on the map, Figure 1.**
A. USSR
In 1960 the USSR accounted for about 8 percent of the world pro-
duction of primary tin. The estimated production of primary tin in the
USSR for 1940-65 is shown in Table 2.xxx
No specific goal has been announced for production of tin under
the Seven Year Plan (1959-65), but production of tin in 1965 probably
will be about 22,000 to 23,000 tons. Most of the increase is expected
to be obtained through the improved utilization of existing capacity.
1
1. Mining and Concentrating
The major tin ore mining and concentrating enterprises of
the USSR are located in East Siberia and the Far East. The regional dis-
tribution of production of tin ore in the USSR, in percent of the total
Soviet production, is as follows 28/t:
, Area Percent
East Siberia
Yakutskaya ASSR 25 to 30
Chitinskaya Oblast 15
Far East
Magadanskaya Oblast 15
Khabarovskiy Kray 15
Primorskiy Kray 15
Remainder (including
Kazakh, Kirgiz, Tadzhik,
and Uzbek'SSR's) 10 to 15.
Total 100
Table 1 follows on p. 8.
Following p. 8.
Table 2 follows on p. 9.
Text continued on p. 10.
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Table ,1
Estimated Production of Primary Tin in the Sino,-Soviet Bloc
1950-60
Thousand Metric Tons 2/
Country
1950
1951
1952
1953
*1954
1955
1956
1957
1958 1959 1960
USSR
7.7
8.5
-9.3
10.3
11.3
12.4
13.6
15.0
16.0
17.0
18.0
Communist China
6.0
7.3
14.0
15.0
16.0
18.0
19.0
26.0
32.0
33.0
33.0
East Germany
Negl.
0.3
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
North Vietnam
Negl.
Negl.
Negl.
Negl.
Negl.
Negl.
Negl.
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.5
_
Total 373.7 16.1 23.9 25.8 27.9 31.0 33.2 41.7 48.8 51.0 52.1
a. In general, zeros appearing after the decimal point are not significant but are used merely for consistency in
presentation._ . ?
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Figure 1
._
,2.,-,,,
WORLD PRODUCTION OF,MINED--4,111F - 1960
":41.0W1--L
_...- ,.
--'
,
e........,')
? 1,(-?..-'k "....'''''4'"'....-'"--1`.......c."...."*",2 -)...,
401.?
411011Farliot - '' :
ei, '1.......,, '' A.,.........- ,
'
... v.
-1
?
V ? C ?1,,,?? ( ...,
,---,.---
*ilk ?. c...4 t. ---1----
N
?UNION OF SOVIET SOCIALIST REPUBLICS
1, 4c-UNliTED E AST-' \ 10.3%
Ce )
-(1.--WINGDOM GERMANY- -
fS 0
If 64
- L V
*11/4
?^???40. . -5 ,
-
( '--'
---------.
- -C?'?0
r
.,,,..----------_, --, L '4 *.r141* .
\
CHINA,--------
'".. 18.4% OP
i'
11,iI Ike
,
. Asti
0
cD a
,,--
AI -V" icrT N A M
THAI A,L4 V0.3%
NIGERIA ,
1 IV-
-...,"
'
'.!
?
10.2%
BOLIVIA
C?C)
CONG011111
it
c?F slOti7197
AFRt9A .1
0.7% /
1.
LK\ .1-AYA
? - - ir (
1 ? ,._
.\----- -
(....?1'''
.
?
?
OTH ER
...
1
.? 1'.
, .
0,,
C?
Boundaries and names are not necessarily
those recognized by the U.S. Government.
.D a A no 1 n c 1
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Table 2
Estimated Production of Primary Tin in the USSR
Selected Years, 1940-60 and 1965
Year
Thousand Metric Tons W. Year
Thousand Metric Tons
1940
2.0 12/
1952
9.3 1/
1953
10.3 1/
1943
3.4 2/
1954
11.3 I/
1955
12.4 1/
1945
4.4 1/
1956
13.6 1/
1946
5.3 2/
1957
15.0 Ei
1947
5.8 si
1958
16.0 y
1948
6.4 1/
1959
17.0 Y
1949
7.0 1/
1960
18.0 li
1950
7.7 1/
1951
8.5 1/
1965
22.0 to 23.0
a. .In general, zeros appearing after the decimal point are not sig-
nificant but are used merely for consistency in presentation.
b. Production in 1940 was reported to be 400 percent of that in
1937: 22/ Production of 500 metric tons in 1937, was interpolated be-
tween 1934 and 1938. Production of tin in 1934 was about 80 metric
tons, 2/ and production in 1938 reportedly was 10 times that in 1934,
or 800 metric tons. 31
c. Production in 1911-3 was reported to be 168 percent of that in
1940. 3.2/
d. Production in 1945 was reported to be 222 percent of that in
1940. ,21/
e. Production in 1946 was reported to be 119.1 percent of that in
1945. 11.V
f. Interpolated between 1946 and 1957.
g. In 1957, about 5,000 metric tons of tin were used in production of
tinplate for the manufacture of tin cans. 22/ It also was indicated
that in 1957 about one-third of the tin produced went into preparation
of tinplate for the canning industry. 3.?_/
h. Interpolated between 1957 and 1960.
i. In 1960, production of tinplate for the canning industry was to re-
quire about 6,000 metric tons of tin. E/ It was assumed that the same
relationship, to production existed as in 1957.
j. Specific production goals for tin under the Seven Year Plan have not
been announced, but the increase planned for 1965 reportedly is about 40
percent more than the level for 1958. 3.!_3./
9
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Locations of the principal tin mining areas and processing facilities in
the Sino-Soviet Bloc are shown on the map, Figure 2.*
Of the tin mined in the USSR, 70 to 75 percent is from lode
deposits, 12/ whereas in the Free World about 70 percent of the tin ore
is mined from placer deposits. 112/ Placer deposits can be exploited by
dredging or open-pit methods, whereas lode deposits generally are worked
by underground methods. In the USSR, however, a decided shift away from
underground operations has taken place, and quarry methods are now being
applied to the exploitation of an increasing number of lode deposits.
Open-pit working of tin mins in the USSR had increased to about 50 per-
cent in 1956. LI
Lode ore, in addition to being more difficult to mine, also
is generally more difficult to process because of its more complex nature.
In the USSR, more than 95 percent of the tin ore mined is a complex, poly-
metallic sulfide ore containing a variety of impurities in the form of
metallic sulfides and oxides that must be removed to produce a tin metal
of high quality. L12/
The principal methods employed for treating tin ores in the
USSR are gravitational and magnetic separation and flotation. The flota-
tion method has been used industrially in the USSR since 1950. L1/ The
recovery rates reported for Soviet concentrating plants compare favorably
with those in the Free World 1111/:
Percent of Total
Concentrating Plants
Rate of Recovery
of Tin from Ore
(Percent)
20 70 to go
60 60 to 70
20 Less than 60
The average tin content of the concentrate produced in the
USSR ranges between 60 and 70 percent. /12/ Concentrate with a high tin
content is produced by a two-phase method of concentrating, which also
results in the recovery of other elements that are present in the com-
plex ores. After initial concentrating near the mining area, the product
is shipped to finishing plants, where a 70-percent tin concentrate is
produced and where such metals as lead, zinc, mercury, tungsten, and
lithium are recovered.
* Following p. 10.
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'
/Rome
r A
Tirane
e
Sofia
Bucharest
?Athirjs ?
('
' .
UK''
Paris* \,
?
GrIFFNI AND
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Oslo
A.\
BloC: Principal Tin Mining Areas and Processing Facilities
, Berlin i;
*Prague
Warsaw
Budapest
Riyadh Riyadh
'Ankara
Damascus
Baghdad
Moscotta)
or PODOL'SK
III RYAZAN' s
? Major tin plant
? Major mining installation
A Mine
1:1 Concentrating plant
o Smelting and refining installation
29946 5-61
AKCHATAU
?
?
KARNAB
New Delhi
NOVOSIBIRSK II
?----
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DEPUTATSKIY
?
?
EGE-KHAYA
?
IUL'TIN
?
PEVEK
?
GALIMYY
SOLNECHNYY.
OBLUCH'YE
OLOVYANNAYA
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SHIRLOVAYA
? KHAPCHERANGA. GORA
CHERDOYAK
r;
Ulan Bator
Peiping
TAO-YUAN A
HSIANG-HUA-LING ?
0 0 TA-Yu
K'UN-MING
CI QA
/MA-LA-KO
HSIN-KUAN
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AKU-SHAN
HSI-WAN
CANTON
? 0
HUNG-SHUI-
CHAI
KO.CHIU SUNG-SHU-CHIAO
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i At.,ASKA
FigureC2
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KHOROL'?
0 DAVNIY 4
P'yongy?ang .
? 4: -\\.,
Seoul
T'ai-pei
f.`"Tokyo
1300
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2. Metallurgical Reduction
In contrast to the mining and concentrating operations, which
are dispersed widely throughout the USSR, nearly all of the metallurgical
reduction and refining of tin is carried out in three tin plants: the
Central Tin Plant in Novosibirsk (55002' N - 82055' E)124/ and the tin
plants in Podol'sk (55?26' N - 37033' E) and in Ryazan' 54038' N -
39?44' E). LI/ The Central Tin Plant in Novosibirsk is the largest and
most important of the three. All of these major tin plants have been
either built or rebuilt since World War II, and the technology employed
in them is comparable to that used in the Free World. Small quantities
of tin also are produced at other nonferrous installations, such as the
Moscow Copper Smelting and Electrolytic Plant imeni Molotov, the Chim-
kent and the Tetyukhe lead plants, and the Ukrainian Zinc Plant (1.1crtsink)
in Konstantinovka. )1/
Depending on its tin content, concentrate is smelted in either
a reverberatory or an electric arc furnace. Concentrate with a low tin
content is reduced in a reverberatory furnace to a crude tin of 97 per-
cent purity,112/ and that with a high tin content is smelted in an elec-
tric arc furnace. The crude tin produced in the electric arc smelter may
have a tin content as high as 99 percent and can be used for some purposes
without further refining. 22/ Other advantages from using an electric arc
furnace are that flue gases are eliminated, continuous operation is pos-
sible, and temperatures can be regulated precisely. a/ The quality of
the concentrate determines the rate of recovery achieved in smelting, as
shown by the following data 22/:
Percent
Tin Content
of Concentrate
65 to 73
50 to 65
20 to 50
Rate of Recovery
of Tin in Smelting
85 to 91
74 to 84
50 to 72
For comparison, as much as 98 percent recovery in smelting has been re-
ported in Malaya. 22/
Sizable quantities of tin are not recovered in the smelting
process. Until recently the practice in the USSR was to allow from 9 to
50 percent of the tin actually contained in the concentrate to pass into
slags and dusts, which were discarded as waste products. Now, through
improved technology, which has been adopted in all three Soviet plants,
tin is recovered from these wastes. For example, first-run slags are
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treated in regular shaft furnaces or water-jacketed furnaces, and a crude
tin of 93 to 95 percent purity is produced. 2Lt/ Second-run slags and
dusts also are being processed successfully in electric furnaces or slag-
fuming installations at several of the nonferrous plants. By 1965, about
12 such installations are scheduled to be in operation, and nearly 1,000
tons of tin are to be produced annually from the slags obtained at lead
plants alone. 22/ The USSR claims that producing tin metal from these
wastes is more economical than processing low-grade tin ores. 2g
Virtually all the tin smelted in the USSR is refined by the
pyrometallurgical (fire-refining) method. 21/ Althouel the electrolytic
method, which sometimes is used in the Free World, would produce a higher
grade of tin, the thermal method apparently is more economical and is
adequate for most requirements. The entire cycle of refining is carried
out in steel kettles heated by coal, mazut, or electricity, and the re-
finery slags also are reprocessed. The refined metal produced is clas-
sified according to official state standards. The minimum tin content
required for each grade is as follows 2?/:
Minimum Tin Content
Mark (Percent)
01
99.90
02
99.56
03
98.35
04
96.25
In addition to the standard grades of refined tin, tin of
ultrahigh purity is produced by vacuum filtration, vacuum distillation,
and zone refining-. An industrial-scale shop for zone refining of tin
at the Central Tin Plant in Novosibirsk began operating in 1957. Tin
metal with a purity of 99.9998 percent is produced at this installation
with a recovery rate of 80 to 85 percent. Output of this shop is ap-
proximately 145 kilograms per month, and the construction of a second
such installation was being considered in 1960. 22/
3. Production of Secondary Tin
In the early 1930's, more than 2,000 tons of secondary tin
were produced annually in the USSR, 162/ and current production is about
5,000 to 6,000 tons. al/ Facilities for the recovery of secondary metal
have been installed at the Moscow Copper Smelting and Electrolytic Plant
imeni Molotov, at the Krasnyy Vyborzhets Plant in Leningrad, and at plants
in Verkhreyvinsk and Podol'sk. .2,/ Scrap also is treated at some of the
ferrous metallurgical installations where tinplate is produced and fabri-
cated.
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In the USSR, secondary tin is produced in about equal quan-
tities (2,500 to 3,000 tons) from both old and runaround or "prompt in-
dustrial" scrap. The runaround scrap, which consists of the slag formed
in production of tinplate and of the shavings and cuttings from fabricat-
ing installations, is not considered to be an addition to new supply, as
it is in constant cycle. At the present time, old scrap is supplied mainly
in the form of Babbitt metal. Hydrometallurgical methods and resmelting in
reverberatory furnaces both are used in production of secondary tin. ?,._V
Refined metal with a tin content of 99.9 percent can be produced in the
reprocessing of runaround scrap and with a tin content of 98.5 percent in
the reprocessing of old scrap. _6_11/ Much of the secondary tin, however, is
used in alloyed form and consequently does not require refining.
B. Communist China
1. Output from Mines
In 1960, on the basis of the estimated level of output of
metal. Communist China probably produced about 20 million tons of tin ore.
The tin content of some of the ore in China was estimated in 1948 to be as
high as 2 percent, ?.2/ but the average tin content probably was about 0.25
percent. Zi The estimate of ore mined is based on production of about
33)000 tons of primary tin in 1960 (see Table 3*) from ore averaging 0.25
percent tin content and on a rate of recovery of about 60 percent. fl/
Most of the important tin mines are located in the Ko-chiu
area of Yunnan Province in southwestern China, where perhaps 80 percent
of all tin ore in China is mined. At the time of the Communist rise to
power in 1949, most of the ore was obtained from several hundred primitive
"native" mines, LEi/ which have been enlarged and modernized under the Com-
munist administration. By 1959 the two major underground mines had been
completely reequipped with Soviet-designed machinery, and modern ventila-
tion and underground haulage systems had been installed. A third ma-
jor modern underground mine began operation in 1957. EV In addition to
the development of the underground facilities, a number of larger placer
mines have been developed in the Ko-chiu area under Soviet technical di-
rection, 21/ and, as far as is known, the technique of hydraulic mining
is used. In contrast to the pre-Communist period, when nearly all output
in this area was derived from underground mining, by 1957 as much as 60
percent of the ore was obtained from open-pit placer mines. Ei
In the other tin mining areas of south and southwestern China,
much of the ore is obtained from small, scattered placer deposits, most
of which are exploited by hydraulic mining. In addition, some tin is
produced as a byproduct in the processing of tungsten-tin ores in Hunan
and Kiangsi Provinces. 23./
* Table 3 follows on p. 14.
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Table 3
Estimated Production of Primary Tin in Communist China
1950-60 and 1965
Year Thousand Metric Tons 2.1
1950 6.o12/
1951 7.3 2/
1952 14.0 1/
1953 15.0 2/
1954 16.0 1/
1955 18.0 1/
1956 19.0 BY
1957 26.0 12/
1958 32.0 1/
1959 33.0 1/
1960 33.0 1/
1965 57.0 31/
a. In general, zeros appearing after the decimal point are not sig-
nificant but are used merely for consistency in presentation.
b. Production was equal to 38 percent of the peak output of 15,865
metric tons before World War II. 11.11
c. Production was equal to 46 percent of the peak prewar output. 12/
d. Production was equal to 91.7 percent of that in 1953. 1?_/
e. Production in the Ko-chiu area, which accounts for more than 80 per-
cent of the total, was equal to 250 percent of that in 1950. /1/ The
total estimate is based on the assumption that the rate of increase in
the Ko-chiu area was representative of the whole country.
f. Interpolated between 1953 and 1956.
g. An estimate of production for 1956 of 19,000 metric tons was based
on the assumption that production was equal to consumption plus exports
minus imports.
h. Production was equal to 187 percent of that in 1952.4/
i. Production of tin concentrates (metal content) was 21. times the
output of between 1,400 and 1,500 metric tons in 1949. /2/ It was assumed
that the increase also would apply to production of metal.
j. Exports in 1959 and 1960 appear to have been roughly of the same mag-
nitude as in 1958. On the assumption that production equals consumption
plus exports minus imports and that consumption increased slightly, pro-
duction also would have increased slightly.
k. Provision was made in the Second Five Year Plan (1958-62) for creat-
ing new capacity for producing 30,000 metric tons of metal. It is
assumed that full use is to be made of the available capacity and that
some additional increase will have occurred by 1965.
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2. Output of Concentrate
In 1960, on the basis of the estimated output of metal, prob-
ably about 8o,00o tons of tin concentrate averaging 60 percent tin content
were produced, principally in Yunnan Province. lei/ Only gravity concen-
trating methods are in use in China, and recently several Hunphrey spirals
(up-to-date concentrating machines) have been installed in the concentrat-
ing plants. The rate of recovery, it is claimed, has increased from 54
percent in 1952 to a current rate of 64 percent as a result of such im-
provements in this sector of the industry. 182/
3. Smelting and Refining
The metallurgical reduction of tin also is centered in the
Ko-chiu area of Yunnan Province. Smelting is carried out in new rever-
beratory furnaces, which were installed with Soviet aid, and in 1959 the
crude tin produced had a metal content of 96 to 97 percent.
Both pyrometallurgical and electrolytic refining methods are
used at the Ko-chiu Tin Plant. The rate of recovery is 98 to 99 percent,
and the metal produced now has a tin content of 99.6 to 99.8 percent)
whereas in 1950 the best grade was 99.0 percent. fj../ The estimated pro-
duction of refined primary tin in 1950-60 and in 1965 is shown in Table 3.
The entire Ko-chiu complex has undergone extensive development
under the Communist regime. Over the last decade, with Soviet aid, new
construction and technology have transformed the Chinese tin industry from
a handicraft state into a relatively modern operation. Supplies of elec-
tric power in the area have been increased greatly by the erection of a
thermal electric power plant at Kai-yuan. 182/ In addition, a new canal has
provided a dependable supply of water, thus alleviating what had been a
major problem in the tin industry. Also the K'un-ming - Haiphong Railroad,
rebuilt in 1957, now connects the tin-producing area directly to an ex-
cellent overseas shipping point on the coast of North Vietnam.
C. North Vietnam
The relatively minor output of tin in North Vietnam is not a ma-
jor factor in the total supply of the Sino-Soviet Bloc. Tin is produced
from both lode and placer deposits. The announced production of primary
tin in 1957-60 was as follows
Year Tons
Year Tons
1957
104
1959
355
1958
220
1960
473
By 1965, production should exceed 500 tons.
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D. European Satellites
1. East Germany
Production of tin in East Germany is based on the exploita-
tion of extremely poor ores in an area that has been mined for the, past
800 or 900 years. The tin content of the ore being worked declined from
about 0.4 percent to about 0.2 percent during 1948-58. .g2/ Although con-
sideration was given in 1957 to closing the mines, operations have con-
tinued.
Three shaft mines were operating in East Germany in 1958 --
Altenberg, accounting for about 65 percent of the ore mined; Ehrenfrieders-
dorf, somewhat more than 20 percent; and Rodewisch, the remainder of nearly
15 percent. 01/ A new shaft was under construction at Altenberg at that
time. 2.P.2/ By 1965 the new facilities and techniques are expected to make
possible an increase in the level of production at Altenberg of 250 per-
cent above that in 1958. 22/
The ore is treated by both gravity concentration and floata-
tion at Altenberg with a resultant concentrate containing about 40 per-
cent tin. The rate of recovery does not exceed 40 to 45 percent. The
ores treated at Ehrenfriedersdorf undergo a more complex processing, in-
cluding flotation. 22/
Smelting and refining are carried out at the VEB Zinnhuette,
Freiberg. The crude tin produced at the smelter has a purity of 99 per-
cent and contains traces of bismuth and copper. Much of the output of
the smelter is consumed in this crude form, and some is refined electro-
lytically to a purity of 99.9 percent. 22/ Production of primary tin
metal in East Germany in 1950-60 is estimated as follows 231:
Year
Tons Year
Tons
1950
Negl.
1956
610
1951
321
1957
610
1952
572
1958
610
1953
488
1959
610
1954
610
1960
610
1955
615
Production of primary tin metal in 1965 may reach 1,000 tons. 2.4/ In ad-
dition, East Germany is believed to produce minor quantities of secondary
tin and tin alloys.
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2. Poland
Although deposits of low-grade tin ores have been discovered
and an old German tin mine exists in the western territories of Poland,
no primary tin is believed to have been produced under the Communist re-
gime. The mine at Gierczyn near Swieradow-Zdroj (50054 N - 15020' E)
was reported in 1957 to be -scheduled for reopening, but this project is
believed to have been abandoned. 22/
IV. Trade
A. East-West
Between the end of World War II and 1955 the Sino-Soviet Bloc
was a net importer of tin metal from the Free World. From 1950 to 1955,
Bloc imports ranged from an estimated maximum of about 6,700 tons in
1951 to a minimum of about 1,600 tons in 1954. During this period, Bloc
imports decreased both in terms of actual tonnage and in terms of their
relative importance to the total Bloc supply of tin. In 1951, for ex-
ample, imports from the Free World represented nearly 27 percent of the
total Bloc supply of tin, but in 1955, the last year in which the Bloc
was a net importer of tin from the Free World, the share of imports had
decreased to about 6 percent of the total supply.*
In 1956 the Sino-Soviet Bloc became a net exporter of tin metal,
and exports of tin reached a high of more than 27,000 tons by 1958. These
exports by year and by country of origin are shown in Table 4.**
Because the Bloc's trade in tin before 1955 had consisted entirely
of imports, exports by the Bloc in recent years greatly surprised the pro-
ducers of the Free World. Supplies of tin in the Free World since 1950
had been considerably larger than world consumption, with an annual sur-
plus of 20,000 to 50,000 tons. 96/ In 1956, all of the tin producers
and several consumers in the Free World formed the International Tin
Council (ITC), the operating agency for the International Tin Agreement,
to maintain a stable market price for tin. To do so, the ITC attempted
to bring the supply of tin into closer balance with demand by restricting
exports from the producing countries. By 1958, however, the addition of
the Bloc's exports of tin to the Free World supply was too much for the
ITC to accommodate. After much adverse publicity had accrued to the USSR
and prolonged negotiations had taken place between the USSR and the ITC,
the USSR agreed to limit its exports to the Free World to 13,500 tons in
1959. 97/ tate in 1959 the USSR again agreed to limit exports of tin to
13,500 tons during 1960. 522Y
See Table 9, p. 25, below.
** Table 4 follows on p. 18.
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The export of tin by the Sino-Soviet Bloc is now a recognized
factor in the Western market. Apparently the USSR has performed ac-
cording to its arrangements with the ITC. Exports in 1959 were only
slightly more than 13,500 tons, and those in 1960 probably were less.
Nothing in the agreement between the ITC and the USSR prevents China
from exporting tin directly to the Free World. In spite of a pressing
need for foreign exchange, China has made thus far only small, though
increasing, shipments (see Table 4), even though it is China's output
that has enabled the Bloc to become an exporter of tin.
Table 4
Estimated Net Exports of Tin from the Sino-Soviet Bloc
to the Free World 2/
1956-60
Thousand Metric Tons
Country
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960 12/
USSR
1.0
15.5
19.8
13.8
8.2
Communist China
0.4
1.9
4.1
3.7
4.6
Poland
0.2
0.6
3.3
0.6
0.2
Czechoslovakia
0.5
-0.2 2/
0
0.1
Negl.
Hungary
0.4
Negl.
-Negl. 2/
0.5
-0.1 2/
North Vietnam
0
0
0
0
0.2
Total g
2.6
17.9
27.2
18.7
13.2
b. Preliminary estimate because of incomplete data on trade.
c. Indicating net import.
d. Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown and
may differ from data presented on Table 9, p. 25, below.
Although sales of tin by the Bloc in the late 1950's increased
the problems caused by the oversupply in the West, the situation has
been reversed in the 1960's. Since 1960, consumption of tin by the
Free World actually has exceeded the level of production, and in 1961
some shortage of supplies was apparent. As a result, current exports
of tin by the Bloc are being accommodated without difficulty and ac-
tually may be a welcome addition to the supply of the Free World for
some time to come.
B. Intra-Bloc
Communist China and the USSR are the main suppliers of tin metal
to the other countries of the Sino-Soviet Bloc. China is the leading
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-VN
exporter of tin within the Bloc, shipping primarily to the USSR. The
USSR, in turn, supplies the European Satellites. Recently, however,
significant quantities of tin from China and North Vietnam have been
shipped directly to the European Satellites. The pattern of intra-
Bloc trade in tin in 1960 is shown in Table 5.*
V. Domestic Consumption
During 1950-60 the total consumption of tin in the Sino-Soviet Bloc
is estimated to have risen from about 15,000 tons to about 38,000 tons.
During this period the USSR was by far the largest consumer, accounting
for about two-thirds of the total consumed by the Bloc. The remainder
was consumed mainly by Communist China, Poland, East Germany, and Czecho-
slovakia. Estimates of the quantity of tin consumed in each of the coun-
tries of the Bloc during 1950-60 are given in Table 6.**
Although the USSR is the third largest consumer of tin in tile world,
exceeded only by the US, where consumption was about 82,000 tons in 1960,
and by West Germany, 100/ the level of consumption of tin per capita in
the USSR and in the other countries of the Sino-Soviet Bloc, when com-
pared with the countries of the industrial West, is quite low (see
Table 7***). The principal use of tin in the Bloc is in production of
industrial alloys, whereas in the Free World greater quantities of tin
are used in production of tinplate. In the USSR, the only country in the
Bloc with a significant production of tinplate, only about one-third of
the primary tin produced, about 5,000 to 6,000 tons, is consumed in this
form, whereas about 60 percent of the primary tin consumed in the US,
about 30,000 to 35,000 tons, goes into tinplate. 101/
Considering the general industrial expansion and a planned increase
in production of tinplate, the maximum requirements for consumption of
tin in the Sino-Soviet Bloc in 1965 are estimated at about 55,000 tons.
The USSR will continue to be the major consumer, but the rate of in-
crease in consumption of tin in Communist China may be more spectacular,
reflecting a more rapid pace of industrialization.
A. USSR
Consumption of tin in the USSR, the leading consumer of tin in
the Sino-Soviet Bloc, is estimated to have increased from about 9,000
tons in 1950 to about 23,000 to 24,000 tons in 1960, as shown in Table 6.
The largest consumer of tin in the USSR is the tinplating industry. Int
Table 5 follows on p. 20.
Table 6 follows on p. 21.
Table 7 follows on p. 22.
Text continued on p. 22.
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Table 5
Trade in Tin Within the Sino-Soviet Bloc 2/
1960
Metric Tons
Importers
Exporters
USSR
Poland
East Germany
Hungary
Bulgaria
Rumania
Czechoslovakia
North Korea
Total 1.)/
USSR
1,100
N.A.
320
150
260
1,200
0
3,030
Communist China
17,700
150
N.A.
N.A.
0
Negl.
Negl.
0
N.A.
Poland
0
N.A.
0
0
0
0
0
N.A.
North Vietnam
45
40
Negl.
Negl.
Negl.
Negl.
0
Negl.
85
Total
17,800 y
1,290
N.A.
885 12/
150
260
1,200
Negl.
N.A.
_
a. 102/
b. Totals may not equal the sum of components. In some cases,, total imports were reported without any indication
of the country of. origin.
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Table 6
Estimated Domestic Consumption of Tin in the Sino-Soviet Bloc
1950-60
Thousand Metric Tons 2/
Country
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
USSR 12/
Poland/
Czechoslovakia d
East Germany d
Communist China LI/
Hungary 2/
Rumania 12/
Total
9.3
2.0
1.3
1.0
0.6
0.6
0.3
15.1
9.3
2.0
1.5
1.5
0.9
0.8
0.3
16.3
11.1
1.9
1.6
1.5
1.5
0.3
0.2
18.1
12.6
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.9
0.5
0.2
20.2
14.9
1.7
1.7
1.5
2.4
0.9
0.2
23.3
16.6
1.7
1.7
1.5
3.6
-0.1 1/
0.2
25.2
17.4
1.7
1.7
1.5
3.6
0.3
0.2
26.4
18.6
1.8
1.8
1.5
4.8
1.2
0.2
29.9
21.9
1.8
1.8
1.5
5.4
0.8
0.2
33.4
23.0
1.8
1.8
1.5
5.4
0.7
0.2
34.4
24.0 2/
1.8
1.8
1.5
7.2
1.0
0.2
37.5
a. In general zeros appearing after the decimal point are not significant but are used merely for consistency in
presentation
b. See the methodology, Tables 13 and 14, Appendix B, pp. 36 and 37, below.
c. The upper limit of the range of 23,000 to 24,000 metric tons.
d. 103/
e. Apparent consumption based on reported net trade. 104/
f. Hungary had a net export of about 100 metric tons, constituting a negative consumption, as indicated.
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1960, however, production of tinplate in the USSR was only about 312,000
tons compared with production of about 4.9 million tons in the US. 105/
Table 7
Estimated Domestic Consumption of Tin in Selected Countries
1960
Country
Kilograms
Per Capita 2/
Total Consumption 12/
(Thousand Metric Tons)
West Germany
0.51
28.2
US
0.46
81.9
UK
0.45
23.2
Netherlands
0.28
3.1
France
0.25
11.4
Canada
0.23
4.2
Japan
0.17
15.5
Czechoslovakia
0.13
1.8
USSR
0.11
24.0 2/
Italy
0.09
4.8
East Germany
0.09
1.5
Poland
o.o6
1.8
Communist China
0.01
7.2
a. Estimated by dividing the population of each country 106/ into the
level of consumption.
b. l07/
c. The upper limit of the range of 23,000 to 24,000 metric tons.
, Although the quantities consumed differ considerably, the over-
all pattern for consumption of tin in the USSR now more closely resembles
that in the US, whereas the patterns that prevailed before World War II
were quite different. The pattern of consumption of tin in the USSR and
the US in 1937 and 1955 is presented in Table 8.*
Several factors affect the total consumption of tin. In the USSR
in 1959, only about 20 percent of the total consumption of tin was based
on secondary tin, whereas in the US secondary tin accounted for about 42
percent of the total. 108/ About one-half of this secondary metal in the
the USSR is produced from runaround scrap and the other half from old
* Table 8 follows on p. 23.
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scrap. 109/ Drives for increasing the recovery of tin from scrap are
being promoted in the USSR, and substitutes for tin also are receiving
considerable attention, along with efforts to reduce the tin content of
Babbitt metal, solders, and other alloys. By means of technological
improvements, such as lacquering and converting to electrolytic methods
of tinplating, the requirements for tin in the USSR are being reduced
relative to the increasing industrial output. Although these programs
are expected to continue with increasing success, the total requirements
for consumption of tin in the USSR will continue to rise, probably reach-
ing a level of about 30,000 tons in 1965.*
Table 8
Estimated Percentage Distribution of Domestic Consumption of Tin
in the USSR and the US, by Major Consuming Sector
1937 and 1955
Percent
USSR
US
Sector
1937 2/ 1955121
1937 2/
19552/
Tinplate
12.4 30 to 42
54.5
37.2
Bronze casting
34.7 25 to 30
5.2
21.2
Babbitt metal
32.8
6.2
4.8
Tinning
Polygraphic metal
5.5
1.0
More than 33
.91
3.4
1.5
2.9
1.6
Solder and other uses
13.6
29.2
32.3
Total
100.0 100
100.0
100.0
a. 110/
b. 111/
c. 112/
d. Including all alloys
except bronze.
B. European Satellites
The European Satellites annually consume about 6,000 tons of
tin.** The principal use for tin is in the form of industrial alloys
such as bronzes, Babbitt metal, and solders. Although steadily in-
creasing, production of tinplate still is small, and the total require-
ments for tin in the European Satellites probably will not exceed 15,000
tons in 1965.
* See the methodology, Tables 13 and 14, Appendix B, pp. 36 and 37, below.
** See Table 6, p. 21, above.
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C. Communist China, North Korea, and North Vietnam
Although consumption of tin in Communist China probably has in-
creased steadily along with the rising industrial production of that
country, the domestic demand for tin in 1960 probably was only about
7,200 tons.* The present demand consists largely of requirements for
such alloys as bronze, Babbitt metal, and type metal, for China as yet
does not produce tinplate. If the initiation of a tinplating industry
goes according to plan, however, the requirements for tin may increase
to about 10,000 tons annually by 1965. The requirements for tin metal
in North Korea and North Vietnam are negligible.
VI. Stockpile
During 1950-60 the estimated new supply Of tin in the Sino-Soviet
Bloc exceeded the quantity estimated to be required for domestic con-
sumption and export to the extent that the Bloc may have been able to
accumulate and maintain substantial stocks. These stocks are estimated
to have increased steadily from 1950 through 1956 by an average of
nearly 9,000 tons per year. During 1956 the stockpile reached a peak
of more than 68,000 tons, a quantity equal to more than two times the
rate of the estimated annual consumption in 1956. In 1958, however,
because of unusually large exports of tin to the West, probably about
9,000 tons were withdrawn from stocks. Inasmuch as the estimate of
stocks must be based on estimated production and consumption and as-
sumed withdrawals, the actual quantity of stocks is unknown. Neverthe-
less, at the beginning of 1961 the Sino-Soviet Bloc appeared to. possess
a stockpile of about 60,000 tons of tin, about 18 months' requirements.
In comparison, however, the US stockpile is estimated to contain more
than 300,000 tons of tin, 113/ a quantity eqnal to about 4 years' re-
quirements in. the US. For the estimated annual stocks in the Bloc,
1950 through 1960, see Table 9.**
During 1960-65 the annual new supply of tin in the Sino-Soviet
Bloc in all likelihood will exceed domestic requirements to a greater
degree than during 1950-60. By 1965 the annual production of tin in
the Sino-Soviet Bloc will be 80,000.to 85,000 tons, including about
4,000 tons of secondary metal if the planned levels of production are
achieved. The estimated maximum domestic requirements in that year are
about 55,000 tons. By 1965, therefore, about 25,000 to 30,000 tons of
tin metal may be available annually either for export to the West or
for addition to the Bloc stockpile, compared with an average surplus of
about 14,500 tons annually in the last half of the 1950's.
* See Table 6, p. 21, above.
** Table 9 follows on p. 25.
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Table 9
Estimated Balance of Supply and Demand for Tin in the Sino-Soviet Bloc
1950-60
Thousand Metric Tons 2/
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
196012/
New Supply
Primary production 2/
13.7
16.1 .
23.9
25.8
27.9
31.0
33.2
41.7
48.8
51.0
52.1
Secondary production 1/
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
Imports from the Free World 2/
4.4
6.7
2.3
2.7
1.6
2.0
0.9
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
Total
20.1
24.8
28.2
30.5
31.5
35.5
36.6
44.4
51.4
53.7
54.7
Demand
Exports to the Free World 2/
0
0
0
0
0
1.0
3.4
18.1
27.2
18.8
13.2
Domestic consumption 1/
15.1
16.3
18.1
20.2
23.3
25.2
26.4
29.9
33.4
34.4
37.5
Total
15.1
16.3
18.1
20.2
23.3
26.2
29.8
48.0
60.6
53.2
50.7
Derived change in stock B/
+5.0
+8.5
+10.1
+10.3
+8.2
+9.3
+6.8
-3.6
-9.2
+0.5
+4.o
Estimated total stock LI/
(end of the year)
15.0
23.5
33.6
43.9
52.1
61.4
68.2
64.6
55.4
55.9
59.9
a. In general, zeros appearing after the decimal point are not significant but are used merely for consistency in presentation.
b. Preliminary estimate because of incomplete data on trade.
c. From Table 1, p. 8, above.
d. The lower limit of the range of old scrap secondary tin for the USSR. See III, A, 3, p. 12, above.
e. 114/
f. From Table 6, p. 21, above.
g. Difference between the total new supply and the total demand.
h. Stocks at the end-of 1949 are estimated to have been 10,000 metric tons. The totals for 1950-60 are cumulated stock changes.
The figures for the total stocks probably are correct to the nearest ten thousand metric tons.
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Most of the tin stocks in the Sino-Soviet Bloc probably are held in
the USSR. Data on exports of tin from Communist China to the USSR dur-
ing 1951-54 are not available, but such shipments probably occurred in
quantity, enabling the accumulation of substantial stocks within the
USSR. The quantity of tin held in reserve by the USSR may be some in-
surance against any stoppage of Soviet imports of tin from China as well
as a strategic stockpile available in the event of any East-West conflict.
China and the European Satellites also may hold some reserve stocks of
tin metal.
VII. Internal Costs and Prices
A. USSR
The cost of production (sebestoimosti) of tin in the USSR appears
to be high relative to the cost of producing other intermediate producer
goods. Of the nonferrous metals for which information about cost or price
is available, tin has one of the highest costs of production, as indicated
by the following reported relationship of the costs of production in 1959
of selected nonferrous metals in the USSR 115/:
Metal
Index
Tin
100.0
Lead
7.7
Copper
5.6
Aluminum
5.0
That is, for the cost of producing 1 ton of tin, the USSR can
produce 13 tons of lead, 18 tons of copper, or 20 tons of aluminum.*
The cost of producing tin in the USSR is high not only relative to the
cost for other nonferrous metals but also relative to the cost of many
other commodities. One way of expressing these relationships between
various commodities is by ruble/dollar ratios. Such ratios have been
derived for the prices of a number of commodities.** In the ruble/dollar
* Insofar as prices in the Free World indicate relative costs, tin is
a metal of higher cost than the other three. Prices in the Free World
in 1959 indicated that 1 ton of tin was approximately equal in price to
3 tons of copper, 4 tons of aluminum, or 8 tons of lead.
** The following assumptions were made in comparing Soviet data on in-
ternal prices. First, the difference between average cost and marginal
cost was assumed to be the same (expressed as a percentage of marginal
cost) for all commodities cited. Second, the factor costs (principally
depreciation and interest), which are not included in Soviet accounting
costs, were assumed to be the same [footnote continued on p. 2711
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price ratios for a few selected commodities, as Shown in Table 10, a wide
gap exists between the ratios for tin and other intermediate producer
goods.
Table 10
Ruble/Dollar Price Ratios for Selected Commodities in the USSR 2/
Commodity
Tin
Lead
Aluminum
Copper
Cement
Sulfuric acid
Crude oil
Bricks
Tool steel
Intermediate producer goods
(average)
Ruble/Dollar Price Ratio
48 to 1 12/
22 to 1
9 to 1
8 to 1
7 to 1
7 to 1
5 to 1 .2/
4 to 1
2 to 1
10 to 1
Soviet STAT
prices are as of 1 July 1955 (see the footnote on p. below), and US
prices are based on comparable dollar values.
b. A wide disparity exists in the USSR between the cost of producing
tin and the internal price of tin, whereas prices of other commodities
tend to approximate actual costs. If Soviet cost had been used instead
of price, the ruble/dollar ratio would have been about 36 to 1. The
gap between the ratios for tin and the other commodities, however, would
continue to be large. For a further discussion of ruble/dollar ratios,
see Appendix C, p. 37, below.
c. 117/
The high cost of production for the tin industry of the USSR can
be attributed primarily to three factors. First, the available ore gen-
erally is of rather poor quality and is extremely complex. Second, many
proportion of accounting costs for each commodity cited. Although
capital charges as a proportion of real costs probably are different
for the various commodities, the difference is believed to be too small
to affect seriously the analysis or to alter the sequence in the list
of ruble/dollar ratios. For a further discussion of ruble/dollar ratios,
see Appendix C, p. 39, below.
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of the deposits occur in areas where the winters are long and extremely
cold, and such conditions hinder all phases of mining operations. Third,
much of the ore and concentrate must be transported long distances over
difficult terrain for processing.
Although the cost of producing tin in the USSR in 1960 continued
to be very high, the Soviet press claims that over the past 10 years
significant reductions in the cost of production have been achieved.
Many of these reductions in cost are attributable directly to improve-
ments and changes in the mining and concentrating of tin ores. Normally
these phases of production account for a major part of the total costs
of producing tin, primarily because very large quantities of materials
must be processed.
In mining, much of the reduction in cost has been obtained by
shifting from underground to open-pit mining operations. For example,
ore mined in 1959 by underground methods at two mines in Primorskiy Kray
cost more than 125 rubles* per ton, whereas ore mined by open-pit methods
at the Khingan Combine in Khabarovskiy Kray cost less than 25 rubles per
ton. 118/ Specific examples of economies claimed to have been achieved
by a shift to open-pit mining methods include a reduction of about 50 per-
cent in the cost of mining in Magadanskaya Oblast and a reduction of more
than 50 percent in the cost of mining for the Dallolovo Combine in Pri-
morskiy Kray. 119/
Additional reductions in cost have been achieved in concentrating,
largely by improvements that permit the recovery of valuable byproducts.
At the Sherlovaya Gora Tin Combine in Chitinskaya Oblast, for example,
about 24 percent of the cost of beneficiating tin ores now is being charged
to the recovery of valuable byproducts. 120/
Some savings also are being obtained in smelting, primarily through
the introduction of electric furnaces. The use of such furnaces permits
the USSR to achieve a higher rate of recovery of the metal contained in
the concentrate and thus reduces the amount of concentrate required per
ton of metal produced.
Further reductions in the cost of producing tin undoubtedly will
be achieved over the next 5 years. That the magnitude of such reductions
will be sufficient to lower the cost of producing tin to a level compa-
rable to that of the average for intermediate producer goods is very un-
likely. The problems associated with the quality and location of ores
appear too great for the USSR to overcome completely.
* Unless otherwise indicated, ruble values in this report are given in
old rubles (ruble values in use before the Soviet currency reform of
1961) and may be converted to US dollars at the rate of exchange of 4
rubles to US $1. For ruble/dollar price ratios covering certain specific
commodities, see Table 101 p. 271 above.
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One of the cost factors that the USSR plans to reduce is the in-
vestment requirement for new capacity in all phases of production. As
of 1960 the total investment required to add new capacity to produce
1 ton of tin -(from ore to metal) was about 330,000 rubles. 121/ By 1965
the plan is to reduce this investment requirement to about 250,000
rubles. 122/
B. Communist China
The available data that relate directly' to the cost of producing
tin in Communist China are fragmentary and Subject to an unusually wide
range from plant to plant. Any average or marginal cost figures derived
from such data probably would contain distortions so large as to make
the figures meaningless.
Price ratios also are of little value for evaluating comparative
costs of production of tin and other similar products in Communist China.
In general, the Chinese include in their internal prices of industrial
raw materials a very large margin of profit, which may be a means of
capital accumulation or possibly of restricting consumption of the prod-
uct. For example, the price that a smelter pays for a ton of copper
contained in concentrate includes a profit to the concentrator of more
than 100 percent. 123/
Some qualitative statements, however, can be made concerning the
probable relative cost of producing tin and other nonferrous metals in
Communist China. In contrast to the aluminum, lead, and zinc industries,
the ores mined by the tin industry are of relatively high quality. ?The
facilities of the tin industry not only are new but also use a higher
proportion of capital to labor than is generally true of the Chinese non-
ferrous industry. Furthermore, these facilities, in the main, are con-
centrated within one small area of about 600 square kilometers -- a situa-
tion that may permit a more efficient utilization of at least some factors
of production. On the basis of these considerations, the cost of produc-
ing tin in Communist China probably is low in relation to the cost of
producing other nonferrous products.
Two other facts suggest that costs in the tin industry of Com-
munist China are competitive with those of leading producers in the Free
World. First, pre-Communist China, operating under capitalistic terms
of reference, produced and sold significant quantities of tin in inter-
national markets. Second, the major, if not the sole, purpose of the
rapid expansion of the tin industry under the Communist regime has been
for the sale of the product in the export market. That a product of high
cost would have ?been selected for this purpose is believed to be unlikely.
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C. East Germany
Although East Germany has not published quantitative information
about the cost of producing tin in that country, the cost probably is
high. The available ores are extremely low in tin content and are very
complex. An average of only about 50 percent of the small tin content
in the ore is recovered in the concentrating process. 124/ Furthermore
all deposits must be worked by underground mining operations, which are
much more costly than are open-pit operations.
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APPENDDC A
PRINCIPAL TIN ENTERPRISES IN THE SINO-SOVIKT BLOC
The principal tin mining areas and processing facilities in the USSR
and in Communist China --the major tin-producing countries in the Sino-
Soviet Bloc -- are shown in Table 11* and Table 121** respectively, and
the general locations of these facilities in the Bloc are shown on the
map, Figure 2.***
on p.
32.
Table 11 follows
**
Table 12 follows
on p.
34.
***
Following p. 10,
above.
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Table 11
Principal Tin Mining Areas and Processing Facilities in the USSR
Location
RSFSR
Region VII 2/
Moskovskaya Oblast, Podol'sk
Ryazanskaya Oblast, Ryazan'
Region IX
Novosibirskaya Oblast,
Novosibirsk
Region XI
Chitinskaya Oblast
Khapcheranga
Olovyannaya
Sherlovaya Goi-a
Yakutskaya ASSR
Deputatskiy
Ege-Khaya
Installations
I. Tin Plants
Podol'sk Tin Plant
Ryazan' Tin Plant
Novosibirsk Tin Plant
II. Major Mining Installations
Khapdheranginskiy Tin Combine
Ononskoye Mining Administration
Sherlovogorskiy Mining and Concentrating
Combine
Deputatskoye Mining Administration
Ege-Khaya Ore Mining Combine
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Coordinates
55?26' N - 37033, E
54?38' N - 39?44' E
55002' N - 82055' E
49042' N - 112024' E
50056' N - 115035 E
50034" N - 116015' E
.69?18' N - 139054' E
67031' N - 134040' E
?
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Table 11
(Continued)
Location
RSFSR
Region XII
Magadanskaya Oblast
Pevek
lul' tin
Galimyy
Khabarovskiy Kray
Obluchijre
Near Komsomol'sk
primorskiy Kray
Dal'niy
Kavalerovo
Tetyukhe
Khoroll
Installations
II. Major Mining Installations (Continued)
Chaun-Chukotskiy Ore Mining Combine
Iulttinskiy Ore Mining Combine
Omsukchanskiy Tin Mining Combine
Khingan Tin Combine ,
? Solnechnoye Tin Enterprise
Dal'olovo Tin Combine-
Khrustal'nyy Mining and Concentrating
COmbine
Sikhote-Alinskiy-Polymetalli0 Combine
Yaroslovskiy Tin Combine
Coordinates
69042' N - 170017' E
67?50' N - 178048' E
62?20' N - 155?59' E
49000' N - 131?05' E
N.A.
43000' N 132?57' E
44?16, N - 135?05' E
44025' N - 135?55' E
44?25' N - 132'04 E
a. The term region refers to economic regions defined and numbered on map29184 (7-60), USSR:- Economic Adminis-
trative Regions, 1 July 1960.
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Table 12
Principal Tin Mining Areas and Processing Facilities in Communist China
Location
Installations
Coordinates
I.
Smelting and Refining Installations
Yunnan Province
Central Tin Plant at Ko-chiu
23223'
N - 103209
E
K'un-ming Smelting Plant
25204'
N - 102241'
E
Kiangsi Province
Ta-yu Tin Refinery
25?24'
N - 114022'
E
Kwangsi Chuang Autonomous Region
Hsi-wan Concentrating and Refining Plant
24?29'
N - 111?39'
E
Kwangtung Province
Canton Refinery
23?07'
N - 113?15'
E
Unknown
Hsiang-hua-ling Tin Mine and Refinery
Unknown
II.
Concentrating Plants
Yunnan Province
Ku-shan
23?25'
N - 103?15'
E
Ta-t'an
N.A.
Huang-mao-shan
N.A.
Hsin-kuan .
N.A.
Ko- chiu
23?23'
N - 103009'
E
III.
Mines
Yunnan Province
Ma-la-ko
23?30'
N - 103?10'
E
Lao-chang
N.A.
Sung-shu-chiao
23?22'
N - 103214'
P'an-po
N.A.
Ku-shan
23?25'
N - 103?15'
E
Huang-mao-shan
N.A.
Niu-shan
N.A.
Kwangsi Chuang Autonomous Region
P'ing-kuei Mining Bureau
N.A.
Hunan Province
Tao-yuan Tin-tungsten Mine
28?54'
N - 111?29'
E
Kwangsi Chuang Autonomous Region
Hung-shui-chai Tin-tungsten Mine'
23?24'
N - 110006'
E
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APPENDDC B
METHODOLOGY
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Table 13
Estimated Production of Tinplate in the USSR pi
1950-60 and 1965
Thousand Metric Tons
Year
Production 12/
Consumption
of Primary Tin
1950
80 to 100
1.8 to 2.2
1951
100
2.2
1952
124
2.7
1953
144
3.2
1954
176
3.9
1955
192
4.2
1956
203
4.5
1957
219
4.8
1958
265
5.8
1959
304
6.2
1960
312
6.3
1965
403 to 435
6.9 to 7.2
a. Twenty-two kilograms of primary tin are required per ton of tinplate produced by the hot-dip method. 125/
The estimate for 1965 is based on the maximum possible increase in production of tinplate consistent with the
planned increase in the total output of rolled metal by the ferrous metallurgical industry (52 percent to 64
percent). 126/ It was assumed that through 1958 all the tinplate was produced by the hot-dip process and
that all the increase by 1965 will be produced by the electrolytic method, which requires 8 kilograms of tin
per ton of tinplate. 221/
b. 128/
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Table 14
Estimated Consumption of Tin in the USSR
1950-60 and 1965
Thousand Metric Tons 21
Year
Primary Tin
Secondary Tin 2/
Total
1950
7.3 1/
2.0
9.3
1951
7.3
2.0
9.3
1952
9.1
2.0
11.1
1953
10.6
2.0
12.6
1954
12.9
2.0
14.9
1955
14.1
2.5
16.6
1956
14.9
2.5
17.4
1957
16.1
2.5
18.6
1958
19.4
2.5
21.9
1959
20.5
2.5
23.0
1960
21.0
3.0
24.0
1965
24.0 2/
3.0
27.0
a. In general, zeros appearing after the decimal point are not
ency in presentation.
b. Tin required in the manufacture of tinplate (see Table 13)
lower limit of a range of 30 percent to 42 percent reported in
c. 130/. Because half of the secondary tin produced is based
withheld from tabulations of both production and consumption.
d. The upper limit of the range of 6,000 to 7,300 metric tons.
e. The upper limit of the range of 23,000 to 24,000 metric tons.
significant but are used merely for consist-
is estimated to represent 30 percent (the
1955) of the total primary tin consumed. 129/
on runaround scrap, this constant quantity is
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AREENDDC C
RUBLE/DOLLAR PRICE RATIOS
The concept of cost of production used in the USSR and that used in
the Free World are not the same for all items of costs. The significance
of the ratios developed in this report, however, is not that of direct
relationships of the costs of producing the same commodity in the two
areas. Rather, it is the more complex idea of comparing the costs of two
separate products in the USSR in relation to the comparative costs of
producing the same two products in the Free World.
A more serious distortion results from the use of prices in attempt-
ing to equate costs of production. In general, the price of industrial
raw materials in the USSR at present appears to be derived by dividing
the total output of the product into the sum of the cost expended in the
production effort. Thus the Soviet price tends to equate to the average
cost of production. In the Free World, on the other hand, the price
tends to equate to the cost of production of the highest cost producer
in the industry (that is, the cost at the margin). When ruble/dollar
price ratios are used to make comparisons of relative costs of production,
the assumption is implicit that the difference between the cost of the
product at the margin in one economy (US) and the average cost of the
same product in another economy (USSR) is approximately equal to the
proportional difference between the cost at the margin of other products
in the one economy (US) and the average cost of the same products in the
other economy (USSR).
Although prices in the Free World for many commodities may be admin-
istered prices, the proposition is made that the costs of production at
the margin will tend to approximate the price. This proposition is based
on the following two observations. First, the standard practice in the
nonferrous mining industries of the Free World is to adjust the ore mix
to the price -- that is, as the price rises, the average metal content
of the ore mined is lowered. The purpose of this trend is to extend the
period of exploitation of the deposits (thus maximizing profits over the
long run). The result of such action, however, is that mining costs tend
to rise as the price rises. Second, for many mining industries, such as
the tin industries of Malaya, Thailand, and Nigeria, which have large
placer deposits that are suitable for exploitation by relatively simple
operations, entry into the industry by small operators is relatively easy.
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