THE ELECTRICAL MACHINERY INDUSTRY OF THE SOVIET BLOC

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01141A000700060002-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 60
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 21, 2013
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: September 28, 1956
• Content Type: REPORT

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StCRbT--,
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE REPORT
N? 73
THE ELECTRICAL MACHINERY INDUSTRY
OF THE SOVIET BLOC
CIA/RR 80
28 September 1956
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS
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This material contains information affecting
the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
Title 18, USC, Secs. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
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THE ELECTRICAL MACHINERY INDUSTRY OF THE SOVIET BLOC
CIA/RR 80
(ORR Project 36.520)
Office of Research and Reports
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FOREWORD
This report summarizes and brings up to date the available in-.
telligence on the electrical machinery industry of the Soviet Bloc.
For the purposes of this report, the electrical machinery industry
includes motors, generators, power and distribution transformers,
switchgear, switchboard equipment, and electric wire and cable.
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A. Definition and Description . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1. Definition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
2. Scope . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
3. Importance of Electrical Machinery . . . . 4
B. History and Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1. Electrical Machinery . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
2. Electric Wire and Cable . . . . . . . . . . . 11
1. USSR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2. Bulgaria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
3. Czechoslovakia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
4. East Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
5. Hungary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
6. Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
7. Rumania . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
A. Facilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
B. Estimates of Production . . . . . . . .... . . . . . 15
III. Use Pattern and Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
A. Use Pattern . . . . : . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
B. Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . 20
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A. East-West . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
B. Within the Sino-Soviet Bloc . . . . . . . . . . . 22
V. Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
VI. Capabilities, Vulnerabilities, and Intentions . . . . 24
A. Capabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
B. Vulnerabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
C. Intentions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Appendixes
Appendix A. Statistical Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Appendix B. Principal-Electrical Machinery Plants
in the Soviet Bloc . . . . . . . . . . . .
Appendix C. Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
39
45
Tables
1. Estimated Volume of Production of Motors, Generators,
and Power and Distribution Transformers of All Sizes
in the Soviet Bloc, 1955 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
2. Estimated Value of Production of Electrical Machinery
in the Soviet Bloc, 1946 and 1955 . . . . . .
3. Estimated Use Pattern of Heavy Electric Motors
and Generators in the USSR, 1955 . . . . . . .
. . .
18
. . .
19
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4. Planned Use Pattern of Alternating Current Motors
of 1 to 100 Kilowatts in East Germany, 1951 . . . .
20
5. Estimated Value of Imports of Electrical Machinery
from the West by the Soviet Bloc, 1954 . . . . . . .
22
6. Estimated Value of Trade in Electrical Machinery
Within the Sino-Soviet Bloc, 1954 . . . . . . . . .
23
7. Estimated Requirements for Selected Inputs for Pro-
duction of Electrical Machinery in the Soviet Bloc,
by Country, 1955 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
24
8. Estimated Annual Rate of Increase in Production
of Electrical Machinery in the Soviet Bloc,
January 1954-December 1955 . . . . . . . . . . . . .
27
9. Estimated Volume of Production of Electric Motors
of All Sizes in the Soviet Bloc, Prewar
and 1946-60 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10. Estimated Value of Production of Electric Motors
of All Sizes in the Soviet Bloc, Prewar
and 1946-6o . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
11. Estimated Volume of Production of Electric
Generators of All Sizes in the Soviet Bloc,
Prewar and 1946-6o . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
12. Estimated Value of Production of Electric
Generators of All Sizes in the Soviet Bloc,
Prewar and 1946-60 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
13. Estimated Volume of Production of Power and Distri-
bution Transformers of All Sizes in the Soviet Bloc,
Prewar and 1946-60 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
34
14. Estimated Value of Production of Power and Distri-
bution Transformers of All Sizes in the Soviet Bloc,
Prewar and 1946-60 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
35
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15. Estimated Value of Production of Electric Wire
and Cable in the Soviet Bloc, 19+6-60 . . . . . . . 36
16. Estimated Value of Production of Switchgear
and Switchboard Equipment in the Soviet Bloc, 37
Prewar and 191+6-60 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
17. Estimates of Selected Input Factors for Production
of Electrical Machinery in the Soviet Bloc by Type
of Product, 1955 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
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CIA/RR 80 S-E-C-R-E-T
(ORR Project 36.520)
THE ELECTRICAL MACHINERY INDUSTRY OF THE SOVIET BLOC*
The estimated value of production of electrical machinery** in 1955
amounted to approximately US $2.8 billion*** for the entire Soviet Bloc.
This figure includes $800 million for motors, $170 million for genera-
tors, and $240 million for transformers -- a total of $1.2 billion;
$1.1 billion for electric wire and cable; and $390 million for switch-
gear. In 1955, Soviet production provided almost 65 percent of the to-
tal value of production, the remainder being divided among the European
Satellites as follows: East Germany, 10 percent; Czechoslovakia, 9.3
percent.; Poland, 7.5 percent; Hungary, 4.7 percent; Rumania, 2.3 percent;
and Bulgaria, 1.3 percent. Albania does not produce significant quanti-
ties of electrical machinery. Based on a value added of 55 percent of
the value of production, in 1955 production of electrical machinery in
the Soviet Bloc was less than one-half that of the US in 1954.
By 1956 the estimated value of production of electrical machinery
in, the Soviet Bloc will increase to approximately US $3.0 billion. Of
this total, motors, generators, and transformers will account for $1.4
billion; electric wire.and cable, for $1.2 billion; and Bwitchgear, for
$440 million.
Because the entire economy of the Soviet Bloc is dependent upon
electrical machinery for the generation, distribution, and application
of electrical energy, any reduction in the production of electrical
machinery will hinder future expansion of heavy industry or will
* The estimates and conclusions contained in this report represent
the best judgment of ORR as of 15 July 1956.
XX The term electrical machinery as used in this report includes
motors, generators, power and distribution transformers, switchgear,
switchboard equipment, and electric wire and cable.
xxx Unless otherwise indicated, values are given in 1953 US dollars
throughout this report.
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necessitate reallocation of available electrical equipment to the more
critical sectors of industry. The major potential vulnerabilities of
the electrical machinery industry of the Bloc are the concentration
of plants and personnel in a few industrial areas, shortages of high-
quality material inputs, and a dependence upon imports to relieve these
shortages.
The general level of technology in the electrical machinery
industry of the USSR is only a few years behind that in the US,
and the European Satellites are considerably behind the USSR
in technology. The order of quantitative importance among the
members of the Soviet Bloc is also indicative of the relative
technological proficiency of the USSR and the European Satellites.
The USSR, East Germany, and Czechoslovakia have highly developed
industries producing complete lines of electrical machinery. Only
the USSR is capable of producing very large generating machines
comparable to those made in the US in the early 1950`s, such as
150-megawatt turbogenerators. The Satellites do not build such
large machinery, and the line of products becomes increasingly
smaller among the less industrialized Satellites.
In terms of value the annual rate of increase in production of
electrical machinery in the Soviet Bloc is presently about 12 percent
in the USSR and ranges from 5 percent to 10 percent in the European
Satellites, except in Rumania, where the rate is 25 percent. The
value of production in Rumania is so small that the high rate of
growth is relatively insignificant. These annual percentage rates
are expected to decline slightly during 1955-60, but the absolute
increase in the value of annual production probably will remain
about the same.
I. Introduction.
A. Definition and Description.
1. Definition.
For the purpose of this report, electrical machinery is
defined as including the following products of the electrotechnical
industry:
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a. Electric motors of all sizes which operate on
alternating current (AC), single and polyphase, and on direct
current (DC), but not starting motors for internal combustion
engines or precision devices such as synchronous motors or gyro-
motors.
b. Electric generators of all sizes, from small portable
units to the largest machines used by central power stations, which
operate on AC, single and polyphase, and on DC, but not battery-
charging generators. for internal combustion engines or precision
devices such as synchronous generators or servorate generators.
c. Power and distribution transformers of all sizes,
but not specialty transformers or those designed primarily for use
in electronic equipment.
d. Switchgear including air and oil circuit breakers,
power switches, switchboards, and associated equipment, but not
small switches or equipment used in appliances and lighting fixtures,
e. Bare and insulated wire and cable for both power
and communications transmission, but not bare conductor shapes
(other than magnet wire) that enter directly into the construction.
of motors, generators, and transformers.
The basic units for rating the power of generators are
the kilowatt (kw) and the megawatt (mw), which is 1,000 kw. These
units are used also for motors because in the Soviet Bloc motors
are rated in the electrical equivalent of their mechanical output.
Transformers are reported in terms of the kilovolt-ampere (kva)
and the megavolt-ampere (mva), which is 1,000 kva. The kva and the
mva are comparable to the kw or the mw as measures of physical
production. Production of switchgear is given in terms of-dollars.
Because of the heterogeneous nature of the equipment, there.is no
satisfactory single physical unit for rating switchgear.
This report traces the development of the electrical ma-
chinery industry of the Soviet Bloc for the years 19+6-55, compares
this development with a selected year before World War II, and
projects the development for the years 1956-60. The countries of
the Bloc considered in this report are the USSR, Bulgaria, Czecho-
slovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland, and Rumania. Figures are
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not given for Albania, because it has no known plants producing elec-
trical machinery.
3. Importance of Electrical Machinery.
The types of electrical machinery considered in this re-
port are the major items of equipment for the production and trans-
mission of electrical energy and for the application of electrical
energy to military, industrial, and agricultural purposes. Elec-
trical energy likewise may be expected to become increasingly impor-
tant in the development and use of atomic energy.
Production of electrical equipment for military end items
does not account for a large percentage of the total production of
electrical machinery. Many of the items produced are of high stra-
tegic importance,. however, and in some cases there is no satisfactory
substitute. Examples of such items are the following: propulsion
motors for submarines; auxiliary motors for guided missiles, radar
antennas, gun mounts, and tanks; and portable generator units for
field forces and for remote radar stations.
The principal use of electrical machinery is in industrial
production. Large generators, transformers, and electric wire and
cable are necessary for the production and transmission of energy
to industry. Typical industrial consumers of electrical energy are
mining machinery, locomotives, rolling mills, and machine tools.
Moreover, through the power used by industry, including the atomic
energy program, electrical machinery also makes a substantial in-
direct contribution to military capabilities.
Agricultural uses account for only a small part of the
production of electrical machinery. Because of the importance of
agriculture to the economy of the Soviet Bloc, however, the use of
electrical machinery by agriculture is more important than the quan-
tity of machinery employed might indicate. The electrical machinery
industry contributes to the development of agriculture by providing
rural electrification, portable generating units in remote areas,
electrically driven tractors, and other farm equipment.
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B. History and Technology.
1. Electrical Machinery.
a. USSR.
During World War II, severe damage was suffered by
the electrical machinery industry of the USSR, concentrated at that
time in Leningrad, Moscow, and Kharkov. It is estimated that 60
percent or more of the Soviet production of electrical machinery,
together with a similar proportion of Soviet electrical generating
capacity, was lost during the war. i/*
After World War II, many of the damaged facilities
were rebuilt. By 1947 or 1948 these facilities and the plants
that had been evacuated from Leningrad and Moscow to the east had
increased their productive capacity to the level of prewar pro-
duction. (See Tables 9, 11,, and 13.**) Since 1948, because of
continued capital expansion and increased productivity, production
of electrical machinery has increased much more rapidly than be-
fore World War II and also more rapidly than the 4- to 5-percent
increase estimated for the Soviet economy as a whole..
Although the technological level of the Soviet
electrical machinery industry is.continually improving and is sub-
stantially better than that of the European Satellites, this level
is still behind that of the US industry. Soviet engineers and
scientists devote considerable attention to automatic controls for
industrial operations, but there is no evidence that in the elec-
trical machinery industry of the USSR automatically controlled
machines are being integrated into continuous production lines by
means of automatic transfer equipment. This measure, known as
"automation," has been introduced into the US electrical machinery
industry for such operations as the manufacture of medium motors.
Soviet technology approximates that of the US in
the production of hydrogenerators*** but is behind US technology
** Pp. 30, 32, and 34, respectively, below, in Appendix A.
*** The term hydrogenerator refers to generators dr.ven by hy-
draulic turbines.
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in the production of turbogenerators.* If size alone is used as an
equating factor, the USSR has produced a hydrogenerator as large as any
produced in the US. This 123-mw hydrogenerator, however, operates at
considerably fewer revolutions per minute (rpm) than its US counter-
part. / The USSR is presently designing hydrogenerators with capacities
of 250 to 400 mw, V has produced turbogenerators of 150-mw capacity,
Although Soviet turbogenerators have utilized
hydrogen cooling for about 10 years, the USSR has indicated only recently
that it intended to introduce the internal cooling of the generator
windings by passing the hydrogen through hollow conductors. Y This
practice has been in use in. the US for several years and may explain the
present US advantage over the USSR in the construction of turbogenerators.
The USSR is building a large power transformer rated at
180 mva. J The capacity of this transformer is far below that of the
315-mva transformer which was installed in the US in 1955.
The Soviet plants which build the largest motors
and generators have been, and may still be, short of large lathes,
large vertical boring mills, and heavy presses. Much of the equip-
ment acquired during World War II is obsolescent, but the new equip-
ment being delivered is of high quality and includes some single-
purpose machine tools for which there are no Western counterparts.
These machines and the increased use of automatic controls are
contributing to the continuing improvement of the productivity of
the Soviet electrical machinery industry. 9
The quality of Soviet-electrical machinery generally
appears to be adequate. Outer finish and appearance are sometimes
below US standards, but materials and workmanship of the functional
parts are good. 10 Although there are occasional complaints about
the poor quality of electrical machinery, these complaints are
neither so frequent nor so universal in the USSR as in the European
Satellites. ll In the USSR there is likewise no evidence of the
forced substitution of less desirable materials such as is found in
the Satellites -- for example, the use of aluminum for machine
windings instead of copper.
* The term turbogenerator refers to generators driven by steam or
gas turbines.
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b. Bulgaria.
Bulgaria did not produce electrical machinery until
after World War II. As a part of the general development of indus-
try at that time, Bulgaria built new plants and began producing small
and medium electric motors in 1948 and power and distribution trans-
formers in 1949. Since 1950, Bulgaria has had an exportable surplus
of motors, and since 1954 probably has been self-sufficient in the
production of transformers, except for the largest sizes. Bulgaria
produces transformers of capacities up to 20,000 kva, both high- and
low-voltage switchgear, and small generators. All the large genera-
tors used by the central power stations for the power expansion pro-
gram, however, must be imported. 12
Before World War II the electrical machinery indus-
try of Czechoslovakia included part of the Skoda combine and some
other long-established enterprises dating back to 1900. After
World War II, war damage was repaired, new facilities were built,
and prewar levels of production were reached by about 1947. Rapid
growth has continued since 1947.
Among the European Satellites, Czechoslovakia ranks
first in the technological level attained. Czechoslovakia is capable
of producing a hydrogen-cooled turbogenerator rated at 50 mw, and
transformers of 100 mva at 220 kilovolts (kv) are also produced.
A 125-mva turbogenerator was scheduled for design in 1955. 13
Czechoslovakia produces a complete line of motors up to 2,200 kw,
generators, transformers, switchgear, and modern control apparatus
which are somewhat inferior to Soviet equipment in quality and
design. In Czechoslovakia, as in the other Satellites, there is a
shortage of winding copper, particularly for machinery built for
countries other than the USSR, and the substitution of aluminum is
becoming more common. Complaints of poor design and failure to
meet operating specifications are especially common in reference to
motors. Some of these complaints may be the result of attempts at
a difficult-to-detect form of sabotage. 14 The lack of transformer
and dynamo sheet steel with lower power loss also contributes to in-
ferior quality. J Here again the quality of production in the
Satellites ranks below that in the USSR, which, in turn, is somewhat
below the US and other Western countries in the quality of its pro-
duction.
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d. East Germany,
Before World War II, Germany had one of the-most
highly developed electrical machinery industries in Europe, and
many of the present plants in other European Satellites were part
of large German combines such as AEG (Allgemeine Elektrizitaets
Gesellschaft) or Siemens. After the partition of Germany, East
Germany had some motor plants and facilities for the production
of transformers but no plants capable of making large generators.
Because of severe war damage to facilities and power plants and
the dismantling of plants by the USSR, production of electrical
machinery in East Germany did not begin to recover until after
1947. Production of generators was even more retarded because
new plants had to be built and for several years had to devote
most of their facilities to the repair of damaged generators.
Substantial production of new generators was not begun until 1952
and 1953. Exceptions were the Soviet-controlled SAG (Sowjetische
Aktiengesellschaft) plants, which were not dismantled but were
quickly rehabilitated to produce solely for export to the USSR. L6/
Despite many obstacles, East Germany has far sur-
passed prewar levels of production for the area which it covers
and is second only to Czechoslovakia among the European Satellites
in technological proficiency. East Germany produces a complete
line of motors of all sizes up to 3,800 kw, transformers up to
125 mva, and turbogenerators up to 50 mw. Development is in progress
on 75-mw generators, and a 150-mva transformer has recently been com-
pleted. 17 As in the other Satellites, copper and low-loss trans-
former and dynamo sheet steel are in short supply. Aluminum .
windings are substituted for copper in some classes of motors and,
as of 1955, were to be used in transformers. Much of the delay
in the development of the 150-mva transformer was attributable to
overheating caused by poor-quality (high-loss) transformer sheet
steel. The. lack of satisfactory transformer oil also is. a bottle-
neck. Complaints regarding the inferior quality of motors are
numerous and even have been noted in one case of aluminum-wound
motors delivered to the USSR. Failure of large transformers may
have been caused by sabotage, as was publicly announced, or by
poor workmanship. 18
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e. Hungary.
Before World War II the electrical machinery industry
of Hungary was small compared with that of Czechoslovakia or East
Germany. Approximately 70 percent of Hungary's most important plant
was damaged in World War II. 19 With the implementation of the
Three and Five Year Plans, starting in 1947 and 1950, respectively,
production in Hungary soon surpassed prewar levels and increased
to such an extent that the position of Hungary as a producer is
close to that of Czechoslovakia and of East Germany and. about equal
to that of Poland.
Hungary produces a complete line of motors, genera-
tors, transformers, and switchgear at a technological level somewhat
below that of Czechoslovakia. The largest units are motors of 300
horsepower (hp) or larger, transformers up to 45 mva, and turbo-
generators up to 32 mw, although none of the turbogenerators are
known to use hydrogen cooling. 20 Because of the shortage of cop-
per, aluminum is being substituted in some machine windings. There
are also shortages of alloy steel for generator rotor forgings and
of electric power. The shortage of power, which appears to have been
partly responsible for delays in production at electrical machinery
plants, has been made acute by the loss of generating capacity re-
moved to the USSR. Replacement of this lost generating capacity has
been made more difficult because of the forced delivery to the USSR
of new generators manufactured for Hungarian electric power stations. 21
f . Poland.
The electrical machinery industry of Poland before
World War II was somewhat larger than that of-Hungary except in, the
production of generators. War damage to the major plants was severe,
.and prewar levels of production were not reached until about 1949.
Production of motors and transformers in Poland has increased steadily
since 1949 and is now greater than that in Hungary. Production of
generators has increased much more slowly. Although a new plant was
built in Warsaw in 1947-51 to manufacture turbogenerators of capaci-
ties up to 50 mw, actual production of this plant has fallen far
short of its planned production. 22
Poland stands in fourth place among the European
Satellites in technological development, ranking below Czechoslovakia,
East Germany, and Hungary, although surpassing Hungary in the volume
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of production of some items. Poland produces a generally complete
line of motors and transformers and a rather limited line of switch-
gear. Motors range up to 4,500 kw, and transformers, up to 31 mva.
Transformers and switchgear are limited in voltage, however, to
110 kv, compared with the 220-kv designs used in Czechoslivakia and
East Germany. Poland's capacity to produce large generators is
limited by a lack of plant facilities. Poland plans to build
turbogenerators of 100 mw by 1960. Inferior quality, resulting
from poor workmanship and low-grade materials -- for example,
low-loss transformer sheet steel of poor mechanical finish --
is one of the weaknesses designated for correction under a new
plan initiated in 1954. Insulation materials, iron castings,
and copper are in short supply. 23
g. Rumania.
Before World War II and for several years after the
war, the electrical machinery industry of Rumania was not very impor-
tant, being limited to the production of small quantities of motors
and transformers. About 1948, construction of new plants was begun.
Upon the completion of these plants, production was substantially in-
creased and was expanded to include generators and switchgear. 24
Rumania ranks just above Bulgaria among the European
Satellites in the production of electrical machinery, although
Bulgaria probably produces more motors than Rumania. The new
Rumanian plants, which were beginning production in the early 1950's,
have advanced rapidly but are still far from the technological pro-
ficiency of the plants of Czechoslovakia and East Germany, which
have had long experience in production of electrical machinery. In
1955 the largest machines in production in Rumania were 1,000-kw
motors, 15-mva transformers, and generators of at least 3,000 kw
and possibly as large as 6,000 kw. The electrical machinery industry
is one of the less developed branches of the Rumanian economy in
spite of technical aid from the USSR in the form of new automatically
controlled machine tools and modern machining methods. Shortages
of copper and skilled labor have hindered development in the past
few years, and aluminum has been used in some motors since 1951. 25
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2. Electric Wire and Cable. 26
Production of electric wire and cable is treated separately
from that of electrical machinery because wire and cable require dif-
ferent and more specialized types of machinery in their production.
The two most important types required are wire-drawing machinery and
cabling and insulating machinery. Wire-drawing machinery is used to
make wire from bulk conductor metal, and cabling and insulating ma-
chinery is used to weave the individual wires into various types of
cable and to insulate this cable with nonconducting material.
Most of the Soviet Bloc relies heavily on machinery of
German origin. The USSR, for example, uses German machinery acquired
by purchase before World War II or confiscated at the end of the war
from East Germany. Machinery of this same design is still produced
in the USSR, although some machinery of Soviet design has been de-
veloped and produced since the war. 27 The dependence of the Bloc
upon outdated German machinery indicates that the average age of
machinery probably is greater in the USSR than in the US, although
the over-all quality of Soviet equipment is only slightly inferior
to that of US equipment.
As a result of their reliance on old German and Hungarian
machinery purchased before World War II, the European Satellites are
handicapped with equipment which is even older than that of the USSR.
Satellite technology therefore lags behind that of the USSR.
The purity of conductor metals and the electrical proper-
ties of the insulating materials limit the quality of electric wire
and cable produced regardless of the superiority of the fabricating
machinery used. As was true of electrical machinery, the European
Satellites are substantially behind the USSR in the quality of materials
used for wire and cable. The USSR, in turn, lags behind the US by a
somewhat greater margin in the quality of wire and cable than in the
quality of electrical machinery produced.
C. Administrative Structure and Personnel.
The first organization in the USSR to have sole responsi-
bility for the production of electrical machinery was the People's
Commissariat of the Electrical Industry, established in 1939. This
organization became the Ministry of the Electrical Industry (Ministerstvo
Elektricheskoy Promyshlennosti) in 1946. After the death of Stalin
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in 1953 the Ministry of the Electrical Industry was combined with
the Ministry of Electric Power Stations and the Ministry of Com-
munications Equipment into a single Ministry of Electric Power
Stations and Electrical Industry. At the beginning of 1954 the
electrical industry was again placed under a separate ministry which
on 17 April 1954 was named the Ministry of the Electrotechnical
Industry (Ministerstvo Elektrotekhnicheskoy Promyshlennosti). 28
The Ministry of the Electrotechnical Industry is headed
by I.T. Skidanenko 29 and has jurisdiction over at least 10 main
administrations.* Of these 10 main administrations, the following
7 are responsible for the production of the most important items of
J: GLAVKABEL' (Wire and Cable), GLAVENERGOPROM
electrical machinery 30
(Power Equipment Industry**), GLAVELEKTROMASHPROM (Electrical Machinery
Industry), GLAVELEKTROTRANSMASH (Electrical Transport Machines),
GLAVELEKTROAPPARAT (Electrical Apparatus), GLAVELEKTROTOCHPRIBOR
(Electrical Precision Instruments), and GLAVELEKTROIZOLYATORPROM
(Electrical Insulator Industry).
The division of products among the main administrations
is not entirely clear. GLAVELEKTROMASHPROM builds primarily motors
and generators but also includes some plants building transformers.
Plants under GLAVELEKTROTRANSMASHPROM build motors and generators
for transportation equipment. Switchgear generally is produced by
plants under GLAVELEKTROAPPARAT, but some of these same plants also
build transformers. GLAVENERGOPROM is a new administration which
apparently has taken over some of the plants making heavy electrical
machinery. 31
Some electrical equipment, particularly motors, which
falls within the scope of this report is produced in plants sub-
ordinate to other all-union ministries -- such as the Ministry of
Electric Power Stations, the Ministry of Shipbuilding, the Ministry
of the Aviation Industry, and the Ministry of Automobile, Tractor,
and Agricultural Machine Building -- or to ministries of local in-
dustry.
* Main Administration -- Glavnoye Upravleniye, or GLAV.
Probable expansion of ENERGOPROM.
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2. Bulgaria.
All electrical machinery plants in Bulgaria are sub-
ordinate to the Ministry of Electrification, headed by Kimen
Georgiyev. This Ministry is responsible for the electric power
system as well as for the production of electrical machinery. The
subgroup responsible for the production of electrical machinery is
called ELPROM (Elektricheska Promishlenost -- State Electrical and
Industrial Association), and D. Stanev is the director of this or-
ganization. 32
All electrical machinery plants of appreciable size are
nationalized enterprises in Czechoslovakia. Plants with an average
of more than 500 employees were nationalized in October 1945, and
subsequently plants with more'than 50 employees were nationalized.
After a series of organizational changes, including splits and
mergers of ministries, the present Ministry of Engineering was
established on 11 September 1953, with Karel Polacek as Minister.
The majority of electrical machinery plants are subordinate to the
Main Administration of Electrical Engineering of this Ministry.
It is possible that one or more small motor plants are under the
Ministry of Light Industry. 33
One of the largest generator plants, the electrical
division of the V.I. Lenin Works at Doudlevce, was part of the for-
mer Skoda combine. It is not known whether or not this plant is
subordinate to the Main Administration of Electrical Engineering
or reports directly to the Ministry. Two groups of plants account
for a large share of the production of the electrical machinery
industry. One group is CKD (Ceskomoravska-Kolben-Danek), and the
other is MEZ (Moravska Elektriche Zavody -- Moravian Electrotechnical
Factories), which has been composed of several independent plants
since 1949. 34
4. East.Germany.
The administrative structure of East German industry has
changed several times since World War II. An important organizational
change took place in late 1953 and early 1954 when three ministries
were merged to form the Ministry for Machine Building. This Ministry,
headed by Heinrich Rau, took over the formerly Soviet-controlled SAG
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plants as they were returned to the East Germans. Under this system
the following main administrations* were responsible for electrical
machinery as defined in this report 35/: HV** Energie- and
Kraftmaschinenbau (Power Machine Building) (includes some generator
production), HV 8 Elektromaschinenbau (Electric Machine Building),
HV 13 Radio- and Fernmeldetechnik (Radio and Communications) (in-
cludes some small motors), and HV 15 Kabel- and Apparatebau (Cable
and Apparatus Building).
Since mid-1955 the former Ministry for Machine Building
has been split into two elements, the Ministry for Heavy Machine
Building and the Ministry for General Machine Building. 36/ It is
not possible to identify the subordination of all main administra-
tions and their plants within the new ministries. Moreover, for
accounting purposes the old system has been used through 1955-
5. Hungary.
In Hungary, electrical machinery is produced in plants
subordinate to the Ministry of Metallurgy and Machine Industry,
headed by Janos Csergo. Some electrical machinery plants probably
are under the Main Administration of Heavy Electrical Engineering,
but whether there are other administrations for small machinery,
electric cable, and switchgear is not known. 37
6. Poland.
In Poland, electrical machinery plants are subordinate
to the Ministry of the Machine Industry, headed by Julian Tokarski.
The subgroup responsible for electrical machinery is the Central
Administration of the Electrotechnical Industry (Centralny Zarzod
Przemyshe.Elektryeznego -- CZPE). 38
7. Rumania.
In Rumania the Ministry of Electric Power and the Elec-
trotechnical Industry, like its counterpart in Bulgaria, is responsible
for the electric power system as well as for the production of elec-
trical machinery. The Minister is Gheorghe Cioara. The electrical
machinery plants are subordinate to the Main Administration of Elec-
trical Equipment. 39
* Main Administration -- Hauptverwaltung, or HV.
** HV 6 (Boiler and Turbine Building) and IN 7 (Power Machinery Build-
ing) were combined on 1 January 1955. The number of the new HV is
not known.
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A. Facilities.
Electrical machinery plants may be classified as follows:
(1) large plants which are well known and concerning which there
is relatively complete information; (2) medium or small plants
concerning which available information varies from minimal to
relatively complete; and (3) plants of unknown size concerning
which it is known only that they exist. It is also possible that
there are other plants of which nothing is known.
In Appendix B, 43 plants in the USSR and 65 plants in the
European Satellites, including all those in category 1, and the
most important of those in category 2, above, are listed.* In
addition, there are approximately 120 Soviet and 60 Satellite
plants which are either minor producers or concerning which no
detailed information is available. These plants and any unknown
plants which may exist probably account for a very small proportion
of the production of electrical machinery because of the small size
of the plants and of the electrical machinery built in these plants.
Detailed estimates of production of electrical machinery
in the Soviet Bloc in 1946-60, by country, are shown in Appendix A,
Tables 9 through 16.** In most of the tables, figures for a pre-
war year are also shown for comparison. For each product except
switchgear and electric wire and cable, 2 tables are included, 1 in
terms of units produced and 1 in terms of value. Value figures only
are shown for switchgear and electric wire and cable because the
heterogeneous nature of this equipment precludes the use of a sat-
isfactory single physical unit. The value figures, given in millions
of 1953 US dollars, are the product of physical production times the
value per physical unit of the product involved. Thus the value figures
are really dollar measures of physical production and do not include
* As is discussed more fully in Appendix C, Methodology, estimates
of production were made on a countrywide basis rather than by in-
dividual plant studies. Thus the list of plants in Appendix B serves
to identify and locate the principal production facilities rather
than to form a quantitative basis for estimates of production.
** Pp. 30-37, below.
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such factors as variation in the product mix occasioned by trade between
countries or by differences in quality of product or in manufacturing
methods.*
The estimated volume of production of motors, generators, and
power and distribution transformers of all sizes in the Soviet Bloc in
1955 is shown in Table l.** This table.shows that the USSR produced
about 61 percent of the total and that Czechoslovakia and East Germany
led the European Satellites in the production of the remaining 39
percent.
The estimated value of production of electrical machinery in the
Soviet Bloc in 1946 and 1955 is shown in Table 2.*** This table shows
that in 1955 the Bloc produced electrical machinery with a value of ap-
proximately $2.8 billion, compared with a value of approximately $1+10
million in 191+6. The ratio of increase between 191+6 and 1955 for the
USSR was approximately 6, whereas those for Czechoslovakia and East
Germany, the 2 European Satellites which had well-developed electrical
machinery industries before World War II, were about 5 and 6, respec-
tively. The ratios for the other Satellites were much larger, ranging
from 19 for Poland to 33 for Bulgaria. In these countries, however,
the electrical machinery industries had never been developed or had
been damaged severely during World War II. Thus impressive rates of
growth in these countries do not result in large absolute values of
production. It is interesting to note also that the rapid increase
in the rate of production in the less industrialized Satellites has
been offset by the slower rate of increase in East Germany and
Czechoslovakia, so that the relative contribution of .the Satellites
to the total production of the Soviet Bloc remained about the same
in 191+6 as in-1955.
By 1956 the estimated value of production of electrical machinery
in the Soviet Bloc will increase to approximately US $3.0 billion. Of
this total, motors, generators, and transformers will account for $1.1+
billion; electric wire and cable for $1.2 billion; and.switchgear for
$141+0 million.
* For a more complete discussion, see Appendix C, Methodology.
Table 1 follows on p. 17.
* Table 2 follows on p. 18.
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If the value added is estimated at 55 percent of the value of
production, production of electrical machinery in the USSR in 1953
represented 0.5 percent of the gross national product and 1.5 percent
of total industrial production. 40 Production of electrical machinery
in the Soviet Bloc in 1955, based on the value added, was less than
one-half that in the US in 1954. 41
Estimated Volume of Production
of Motors, Generators, and Power and Distribution Transformers
of All Sizes in the Soviet Bloc a/
1955
Motors
Generators
Transformers
Percent
Country
Megawatts
Megawatts
(Megavolt-Amperes)
Total J
of Total
USSR
11,000
5,800
14,000
31,000
61
Bulgaria
470
17
300
790
1.6
Czechoslovakia
2,600
980
1,600
5,200
10"
East Germany
.1,800
1,000
3,200
6,000
12
Hungary
900
300
1,300
2,800
4.9
Poland
1,000
20
2,600
3,600
7.3
Rumania
430
190
850
1,500
3.0
Total
18,000
8,300
24,000
51,000
100
a. All data are rounded to two significant figures. Totals and percentages are
derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree with rounded data shown.
b. Technically, megawatts and megavolt-amperes should not be added, but in this
case their sum is a meaningful measure of total production in physical units.
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Estimated Value of Production of Electrical Machinery in the Soviet Bloc a/
1946 and 1955
1946
1955
Ratio of
Increase
Country
Million 1953 US $
Percent
Million 1953 US $
Percent
1955 over 1946
USSR
290
71
1,800
65
6.2
Bulgaria
1.1
0.30
36
1.3
33
Czechoslovakia
53
13
260
9.3
4.9
East Germany
49
12
290
10
5.9
Hungary
4.4
1.1
130
4.7
34
Poland
11
2.7
210
7.5
19
Rumania
2.1
0.50
65
2.3
31
410
100
2,800
100
6.8
a. All data are rounded to two significant figures. Totals and percentages are derived
from unrounded figures and do not always agree with rounded data shown.
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III. Use Pattern and Requirements:.
The products of the electrical machinery industry that are
concerned with the generation and distribution of bulk power --
for example, large generators and transformers, heavy switchgear,
and power cable -- are used almost entirely by the electric power
industry or by large industrial complexes that have their own
generating plants. These products contribute to the atomic energy
program in direct proportion to the power used for that purpose.
Motors and the smaller sizes of transformers and switchgear have
far more direct application in industry.
Table 3 shows the estimated use pattern of heavy electric
motors and generators in the USSR in 1955. Table 4* shows the
planned use pattern of AC motors of 1 to 100 kw in East Germany
in 1951.
Estimated Use Pattern of Heavy Electric Motors and Generators
in the USSR a/
1955
Consuming Industry Motors
Generators
Electric power, including
the atomic energy program 23
87
Naval shipbuilding 5
5
Railroad transportation 10
3
Steel 18
b
Chemicals
and petroleum 16
b
.Mining
6
Aviation
7
Other
15
5
Total
100
100
a. ?2j
b. Included under either "Electric power" or "Other."
Table 4 follows on p. 20.
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Table 4
Planned Use Pattern of Alternating Current Motors
of 1 to 100 Kilowatts in.East Germany a/
1951
Consuming Sector
Percent Consumed
Industrial production
55.0
Industrial investment
19.1
Agriculture
o.6
Transportation
0.2
Reparations and government orders
0.6
Exports
20.7
Operational reserve
1.1
Other
0.7
Stockpile
2.0
Total 100.0
a.
B. Requirements.
In the USSR, production of electrical machinery, together
with imports from the European Satellites, appears to be meeting
the requirements of the electric power program and the most impor-
tant needs of industry. Large-scale production of consumer goods
and a substantial export program, however, could not be undertaken,
in addition to existing commitments, without a considerable increase
in capital investment. There is evidence neither of overproduction
nor of an undesired accumulation of inventory. There is also no
evidence of a serious shortage of critical input materials, because
the USSR has top priority for any such materials available within
the .Soviet Bloc.
The electrical machinery that remains in the European Satellites
after export commitments to the USSR have been met falls far short of
domestic needs.. In Hungary and East Germany, production of generators
available for the domestic power program is so small that repeated
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reductions in plans for expansion or chronic shortages of power are
caused. Rumania and Bulgaria build neither large generators nor the
largest transformers, thus failing completely to meet the requirements
of their power systems for these products.
As pointed out in I, B,* of this report, the European Satel-
lites are chronically short of critical input materials, particularly
high-grade electrical copper and low-loss transformer and dynamo
sheet steel.
Table 5** shows the estimated value of imports of electrical
machinery from the West by the Soviet Bloc in 1954. These imports
amounted to about.$53 million, or a little less than 3 percent of
the estimated value of production in the Bloc in 1954. (Exports of
electrical machinery from the Bloc to the West, estimated at $5 mil-
lion per year, are not shown in Table 5.) Although the value of
imports into the Bloc is only a small percentage of Bloc produc-
tion, these imports are important in meeting the need for specialized
equipment not mass-produced in the Bloc. The estimates of value are
based on reported items of open trade which are identifiable as
electrical machinery. The estimates probably are conservative be-
cause both clandestine shipments and electrical machinery included
in shipments reported only as "electrical equipment" are omitted. 44
The present trend is toward a decreasing dependence upon
Western sources of supply and an increasing dependence upon domestic
production and trade within the Sino-Soviet Bloc. (See B, be-
low.) The pattern of East-West trade is also changing. Switzerland
and the UK are supplying proportionately less of the electrical
machinery imported by the Soviet Bloc,, whereas Sweden and West Ger-
many are supplying proportionately more. Although the Soviet Bloc
has repeatedly expressed a desire to increase imports of electrical
machinery, its purchases have been limited by the export controls
imposed by the US and other Western countries. Consequently, the
Soviet Bloc has had to pay high prices that otherwise might have been
reduced by strong competition in the West for markets in the Soviet.
Bloc. Although there has been no evidence that specific electrical
* Pp. 7-10.
Table 5 follows on p. 22.
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machinery has been imported for the sole purpose of learning new
technological methods, such exploitation of imported machinery
probably does occur.
Table 5
Estimated Value of Imports of Electrical Machinery
from the West by the Soviet Bloc a
1954
Million 1953 US
Country
Exports to the Bloc
Austria
10
Belgium, Luxembourg
2
Finland
2
France
3
Italy
3
Netherlands
3
Sweden
6
Switzerland
5
UK
15
West Germany
4
53
a.
B. Within the Sino-Soviet Bloc.*
Table 6** shows the estimated value of trade in electrical
machinery within the Sino-Soviet Bloc in 1954. As indicated by the
table, the principal exporting Satellites are Czechoslovakia, East
Germany, and Hungary. The USSR draws on these Satellites for some
products, such as large generators up to 50,000 kw, while assisting
the less industrialized countries of the Bloc. The total'volume of
* Communist China is included in this section because it is a
major importer of electrical machinery from other members of the
Sino-Soviet Bloc.
** Table 6 follows on p. 23.
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trade within the Bloc is approximately 7 times the imports from the
West and involves about 19 percent of the production of electrical
machinery by the Bloc. The estimated value of trade within the Sino-
Soviet Bloc was derived from studies of individual installations.
These estimates are probably conservative because some items of elec-
trical machinery are included in end products, the final shipment of
which is not reported as electrical equipment.
Table 6
Estimated Value of Trade in Electrical Machinery
Within the Sino-Soviet Bloc al
1954
Million 1953 us-$
Country
Exports
Imports
Balance
of Trade
USSR
120
155
-35
Albania
Negligible
9
-9
Bulgaria
6
19
-13
Czechoslovakia
81
9
+72
Communist China
Negligible
100
-100
East Germany
120
10
+110
Hungary
32
10
+22
Poland
8
.29
-21
Rumania
3
29
-26
370
370
a
V. Inputs.
Table 7* shows the estimated requirements for selected inputs for
the production of electrical machinery in the Soviet Bloc in 1955.
The column headed Steel includes the carbon and the alloy steel mill
shapes and steel castings that enter into the mechanical structure
of electrical machinery. This column does not include transformer
and dynamo sheet steel, which is shown separately in the column
headed Electrical Sheet Steel. Electrical sheet steel has special
magnetic properties and is used for the magnetic flux-carrying por-
tion, or "core," of electrical equipment.
Table 7 follows on p. 24. For methodology, see Appendix B.
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Table 7
Estimated Requirements for Selected Inputs for Production
of Electrical Machinery in the Soviet Bloc, by Country a
1955
Country
Steel
Electrical
Sheet Steel
Iron
Castings
Aluminum
Copper
USSR
170
240
78
71
240
Bulgaria
5.3
6.0
2.7
0.16
3.3
Czechoslovakia
26
46
17
10
28
East Germany
27
44
14
4.0
36
Hungary
13
18
6.1
4.0
16
Poland
17
22
6.2
1.7
21
Rumania
3.7
10
2.9
4.3
9.1
Total
260
390
130
95
350
a. All data are rounded to two significant figures. Totals
are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree with
rounded data shown.
VI. Capabilities, Vulnerabilities, and Intentions.
A. Capabilities.
The USSR is technically capable of producing a complete line
of electrical machinery of satisfactory quality in sizes up to the
largest built in the US in the early 1950's. Over-all production
meets. planned goals, although occasionally goals for some specific
items are not met. The need for imports from the European Satellites
and from the West is evidence that production does not meet all re-
quirements. Imports of generators especially are required for ex-
pansion of the power system, although exports to Communist China
constitute a part of this requirement.
The capabilities of the European Satellites vary widely.
Czechoslovakia and East Germany produce complete lines of electrical
machinery, but the largest units are substantially smaller than those
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made in the USSR. These countries are capable of producing machinery
of good quality, but frequently the quality is not. satisfactory be-
cause of shortages of good materials or because of inferior workman-
ship. Bulgaria produces a limited line of relatively small equip-
ment, and Albania is not known to produce any electrical machinery
at all. Hungary, Poland, and Rumania rank between East Germany and
Czechoslovakia on the one hand and Bulgaria on the other.
Although the European Satellites generally report fulfill-
ment of their plans, they fail to meet the actual requirements of
their own power programs. Deliveries to the USSR and to Communist
China contribute to the failure.
B. Vulnerabilities.
Because of the primary importance of electrical machinery
in the supply and conversion of power for all industrial operations,
any reduction in production of electrical machinery will hinder fur
ther expansion of heavy industry or will necessitate the reallocation
of available electrical machinery to the more critical sectors of in-
dustry. The potential vulnerabilities of the electrical machinery
industry itself are the geographical concentrations of plants and
personnel, the shortages of materials, and the dependence upon im-
ports.
Vital segments of the electrical machinery industry of the
Soviet Bloc are geographically concentrated in the USSR. Plants
located in Moscow, Leningrad, Khar'kov, Sverdlovsk, Yerevan, Baku,
and Zaporozh'ye account for almost the entire production of the
large generators and the transformers necessary to expand or re-
habilitate the electric power system. In the European Satellites
the concentration of the electrical machinery industry is even
greater. There are only 1 or 2 plants in each country capable of
making the larger types of equipment. Almost all of the Satellite
production of electrical machinery is centered in the cities of
Sofia, Prague, Pilsen, East Berlin, Dresden, Budapest, Wroclaw,
Zychlin, and Craiova.
The vulnerability of the Soviet Bloc with regard to personnel
is linked to the geographical concentration of plants. The skilled
workers and engineers, without whom it would be most difficult to
operate the electrical machinery industry, are concentrated in the
same general areas as are the plant facilities.
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The vulnerability of the Soviet Bloc with regard to shortages
of materials is reflected in continuing reports of failures by the
European Satellites to meet quotas for machinery because of the lack
.of high-grade copper, electrical sheet steel, and transformer oil.
It is possible that these shortages could be overcome by lowering the
standards for the input materials, but there has been no indication
that the Bloc would accept the lower grade, higher cost end products
that would result from lowered standards. For example, aluminum wire
has been used to replace copper in certain instances, but the result
has been negligible in overcoming the shortage of copper. The
European Satellites depend upon imports for approximately 54 percent
of the high-grade copper, 35 percent o?' the electrical sheet steel,
and 33 percent of the transformer oil required for electrical ma-
chinery and electric wire and cable. The USSR, however, does not
appear to be short of these materials and in rare cases even has
delivered copper and electrical sheet steel to the Satellites for
the purpose of expediting deliveries of electrical machinery to the
USSR.
The effects of shortages of strategic materials are widespread.
Delays in the delivery of electrical sheet steel and copper or non-
delivery of these materials hinder the production of manufactured
goods. Because the manufacturers of electrical machinery must re-
schedule their production on the basis of a limited supply of materials,
the efficiency of their plants is lowered. The delivery schedules
of other industries dependent upon electrical machinery in the manu-
facture of their products also are disturbed, and the Soviet Bloc
may be forced to allocate additional investment funds for copper and
other strategic materials in order to relieve the shortages.
A total embargo on exports of essential materials by the West
might reduce the production of finished electrical machinery by the
Soviet Bloc by a factor of 4 to 5 times the value of the materials
themselves. There are no substitutes for most of the end products
of the electrical machinery industry.
The increase in the value of production of electrical ma-
chinery in the Soviet Bloc, shown in Table 2,* indicates an intention
* P. 18, above.
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to provide the power and the conversion equipment necessary for the con-
tinued expansion of heavy industry. The estimated annual rate of increase
in production of electrical machinery in the Soviet Bloc from January 195+
through December 1955 is shown in Table 8. The figures in this table
apply, within a margin of error of plus or minus 1.5 percent, both to the
total volume of production of motors, generators, and transformers and to
the total value of production of electrical machinery as defined in this
report. These annual percentage rates are expected to decline slightly
during 1955-60, but the absolute increase in the value of annual produc-
tion probably will remain about the same.
Estimated Annual Rate of Increase
in Production of Electrical Machinery
in the Soviet Bloc
January 195+-December 1955
Country
Percentage Increase
USSR
12
Bulgaria
5.0
Czechoslovakia
9.0
East Germany
8.0
Hungary
10
Poland
8.0
Rumania
25
The rate of increase in the USSR of 12 percent failed to meet
the goal of 13 percent announced in the Fifth Five Year Plan (1951-55).
This rate of increase was slightly less than the amount required to
double production in 5 years, the goal set for the increase of elec-
tric-generating capacity. ~+7
With one exception, the estimated rates of increase were
smaller in the European Satellites than in the USSR. In Rumania
the rate of increase is still high because of a late start in
developing the industry. The 25-percent rate of increase shown
for Rumania was calculated from the tables of estimated production
and was confirmed by a Rumanian press release. 1
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APPENDIX A
STATISTICAL TABLES
Estimates of the volume of production of specific categories of
electrical machinery in the Soviet Bloc are shown for a prewar year
and for 1946-60 in Tables 9, 11, and 13.* Estimates of the value
of production of specific categories of electrical machinery in the
Soviet Bloc are shown for a prewar year and for 1946-6o in Tables 10,
12, 14, 15, and 16.**
Pp. 30, 32, and 34, respectively, below.
PP. 31, 33, 35, 36, and 37, respectively, below.
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3-. -U-x-h=1
Estimated Volume of Production of Electric Motors of All Sizes in the Soviet Bloc a/
Prewar and 1946-60
Country
Prewar
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
USSR
2,300
2,300
3,300
5,200
7,100
8,500
8,900
9,300
9,800
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
17,000
(59)
(68)
(77)
(79)
(78)
(74)
(68)
(66)
(63)
(64)
(61)
(57)
(59)
(61)
(58)
(59)
Bulgaria
Negligible
Negligible
Negligible
30
110
200
250
320
380
450
470
500
520
550
570
600
Czechoslovakia
380
580
680
800
940
1,200
1,400
1,700
2,000
2,300
2,600
3,000
3,200
3,600
3,900
4,200
East Germany
1,000
400
200
300
500
900
1,500
1,4oo
1,600
1,800
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,600
Hungary
60
20
50
140
210
320
500
620
720
800
900
980
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
Poland
200
70
110
190
200
300
480
680
760
970
1,000
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
Rumania
10
2
5
10
15
45
120
190
260
340
430
500
580
660
740
830
Total
4,000
3,400
4,300
6,700
91100
11,500
13,000
14,000
3.6,000
17,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
25,000
28,000
a. All data are rounded to two significant figures. Totals and percentages are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree with rounded data
shown.
b. East Germany, 1936; USSR, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and Rumania, 1937; Hungary, 1938.
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Estimated Value of Production of Electric Motors of All Sizes in the Soviet Bloc 1
Prewar and 1946-60
Million 1953 US $
Country
Prewar Y
1946
1947
1948
11949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
USSR
100
100
140
230
310
370
390
400
430
450
480
530
570
630
680
750
Bulgaria
Negligible
Negligible
Negligible
1.3
4.8
8.6
11
14
17
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Czechoslovakia
17
25
30
35
41
52
62
75
87
100
110
130
140
160
170
180
East Germany
44
18
8.8
13
22
40
64
62,
73
77
81
88
95
100
110
120
Hungary
2.6
0.88
2.2
6.2
9.2
14
22
27
32
35
40
43
47
51
55
60
Poland
8.8
3.0
5.0
8.1
8.8
13
21
30
33
43
46
52
56
62
66
70
Rumania
0.40
0.088
0.22
0.44
0.67
2.0
5.0
8.1
11
15
19
22
26
29
33
37
170
150
190
290
400
500
890
960
1,000
1,100
1,200
a. All data are rounded to two significant figures. Totals are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree with rounded data
shown.
b. East Germany, 1936; USSR, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and Rumania, 1937; Hungary, 1938.
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Estimated Volume of Production of Electric Generators of All Sizes in the Soviet Bloc a,
Prewar and 1946-60
Country
Prewar J
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960 J
USSR
720
560
680
820
1,000
1,200
2,400
3,200
4,500
4,900
5,800
6,900
8,200
9,800
11,000
14,000
Percent of total
(65)
(67)
(65)
(58)
(61)
(61)
(70)
(70)
(72)
(69)
(70)
(71)
((72)
(74)
(76)
(78)
Bulgaria
Negligible
Negligible
Negligible
Negligible
4.0
7.0
9.0
11
14
16
17
19
21
23
25
27
Czechoslovakia
a
340
250
340
440
550
620
700
750
820
900
980
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,200
1,390
E
st Germany
35
20
10
15
20
50
140
350
560
890
1,000
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
Hungary
20
10
20
40
70
100
160
200
230
260
300
340
370
410
440
480
Poland
Negligible
Negligible
Negligible
Negligible
Negligible
Negligible
Negligible
Negligible
5
15
20
45
70
100
120
150
Rumania
Negligible
Negligible
Negligible
105
0.8
8
15
75
110
150
190
220
250
270
320
350
Total
11100
840
11000
1,400
1,600
2,000
3,400
4
600
200
6
100
7
8
300
9
700
11
000
13
000
000
15
000
18
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
a. All data are rounded to two significant figures. Totals-and percentages are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree with rounded data shown.
b. East Germany, 1936; Bulgaria, USSR, Czechoslovakia, and Rumania, 1937; Hungary, 1938.
c. Based on Plan data where available.
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Estimated Value of Production of Electric Generators of All Sizes in the Soviet Bloc a]
Prewar and 1946-60
Country Prewar J 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960
USSR
15
12
14
17
21
25
51
67
94
100
120
140
170
200
250
300
Bulgaria
Negligible
Negligible
Negligible
Negligible
0.084
0.14
0.19
0.23
0.29
0.34
0.36
0.40
0.44
o.48
4
0.53
0.57
2
Czechoslovakia
7.1
5.3
7.1
9.2
12
13
15
16
17
19
21
22
23
2
25
7
4
East Germany
0.74
0.42
0.21
0.32
0.42
1.1
2.9
7.4
12
19
22
25
27
29
31
3
Hungary
0.42
0.21
0.42
o.84
1.5
2.1
3.4
4.2
4.8
5.5
6.3
7.1
7.8
8.6
9.2
10
Poland
Negligible
Negligible
Negligible
Negligible
Negligible
Negligible
Negligible
Negligible
0.10
0.32
0.42
0.95
1.5
2.1
2.6
6
3.1
Rumania
Negligible
Negligible
Negligible
Negligible
Negligible
0.17
0.31
1.6
2.3
3.1
3.9
4.6
5.2
5.7
.7
7.2
Total 23 18 22 27 35 42 72 96 130 150 170 200 230 270 330 380
a. All data are rounded to two significant figures. Totals are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree with rounded data shown.
b. East Germany, 1936; Bulgaria, USSR, Czechoslovakia, and Rumania, 1937; Hungary, 1938.
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Estimated Volume of Production of Power and Distribution Transformers of All Sizes in the Soviet Bloc a
Prewar and 1946-60
Country
Prewar
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
'1951
1952.
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
USSR
2,700
1,900
2,900
4,500
6,100
7,300
8,300
9,500
11,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
19,000
22,000
25,000
29,000
Percent of total
(47)
(59)
(67)
(67)
(66)
(62)
(63)
(58)
(56)
(58)
(58)
(60)
(62)
(64)
(66)
(68)
Bulgaria
Negligible
Negligible
Negligible Negligible
20
80
130
170
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
Czechoslovakia
600
450
600
800
980
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
2,000
2,000
2,200
East Germany
1,900
700
400
500
1,000
1,700
1,800
2,300
2,900
3,000
3,200
3,400
3,500
3,600
3,800
4,000
Hungary
100
60
130
210
320
480
750
930
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,500
1,600
1,800
1,900
2,000
Poland
390
75
300
700
810
1,100
1,400
1,800
2,300
2,400
2,600
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,200
3,300
Rumania
30
10
15
25
50
90
200
360
500
680
850
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,500
1,700
Total
5,700
3,200
4,300
6,700
9,300
12,000
114,000
)6,000
19,000
21,000
24,000
27,000
30,000
34,000
38,000
43,000
a. All data are rounded to two significant figures. Totals and percentages are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree with rounded data shown.
b. East Germany, 1936; Bulgaria, USSR, Czechoslovakia, and Rumania, 1937; Hungary, 1938.
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Estimated Value of Production of Power and Distribution Transformers of All Sizes in the Soviet Bloc a/
Prewar and 1946-60
Country Prewar 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960
USSR
27
19
29
45
61
73
83
95
110
120
14o
160
190
220
250
290
Bulgaria
Negligible
Negligible
Negligible
Negligible
0.20
0.8
1.3
1.7
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.1
3.4
3.6
3.8
4..0
Czechoslovakia
6.0
4.5
6.0
8.0
9.8
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
20
21
22
East Germany
19
7.0
4.o
5.0
10
17
18
23
29
30
32
34
35
37
38
4o
Hungary
1.0
o.6o
1.3
2.1
3.2
4.8
7.5
9.3
11
12
13
15
16
18
19
20
Poland
3.9
0.75
3.0
7.0
8.1
11
14
18
23
24
26
28
29
30
32
33
Rumania
0.30
0.10
0.15
0.25
0.50
0.90
2.0
3.6
5.0
6.8
8.5
10
12
14
15
17
Total 57 32 43 67 93 120 140 16o 190 210 240 270 300 340 380 430
a. All data are rounded to two significant figures. Totals are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree with rounded data shown.
b. East Germany, 1936; Bulgaria, USSR, Czechoslovakia, and Rumania, 1937; Hungary, 1938.
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Estimated Value of Production of Electric Wire and Cable in the Soviet Bloc a/
1946-60
Country
Prewar,1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955.
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
USSR
uo
130
180
240
310
360
440
540
660
710
780
860
950
1,000
1,100
1,300
Bulgaria
Negl.
Negl.
Negl.
0.4
0.8
1.0
1.7
2.2
5.1
5.6
6.1
6.8
7.4
8.2
9.0
9.9
Czechoslovakia
30
13
18
24
30
37
45
54
65
75
87
97
110
120
140
150
East Germany
150
44
44
53
58
72
79
92
100
92
100
110
120
130
140
160
Hungary
7.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
8.0
11
15
20
27
34
41
47
54
59
65
68
Poland
20
9.0
18
31
34
41
-44
48
52
57
63
69
76
84
92
100
Bulgaria
3.0
2.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
15
17
24
26
29
32
36
40
44
49
55
Total
320
200
270
- 360
450
540
640
780
940
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,400
1,400
1,600
1,800
a. All data are rounded to two significant fi
gores. Totals are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree with rounded data
shown,
b. All countries, 1938?
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Estimated Value of Production of Switchgear and Switchboard Equipment in the Soviet Bloc a/
Prewar and 1946-60
Country Prewar 2 .1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960
USSR 50 30 50 80 110 130 150 170 190 210 240 280 330 380 440 510
Percent of total (53) (59) (71) (73) (71) (66) (64) (61) (59) (60) (61) (63) (66) (68) (7Q) (72)
Bulgaria Negligible Negligible Negligible Negligible 0.35 1.5 2.4 3.1 4.7 5.1 5.5 5.7 6.2 6.5 6.9 7.3
Czechoslovakia 10 8.8 10 14 17 19 21 23 25 26 28 30 32 34 36 38
East Germany 33 12 7.0 8.8 17 30 32 40 51 52 56 59 61 63 66 70
Hungary 2.1 0.70 1.8 5.0 7.4 11 18 22 26 28 32 34 38 41 44 48
Poland Negligible Negligible 1.0 2.3 4.0 5.5 11 21 25 27 29 31 32 33 35 37
Rumania Negligible Negligible Negligible Negligible Negligible Negligible Negligible Negligible 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.4
Total 100 50 70 110 160 200 230 280 320 350 390 440 500 560 630 710
a. All data are rounded to two significant figures. Totals and percentages are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree with rounded data shown.
b. East Germany, 1936; USSR, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and Rumania, 1937; Hungary, 1938.
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APPENDIX B
PRINCIPAL ELECTRICAL MACHINERY PLANTS IN THE SOVIET BLOC
The principal electrical machinery plants in the Soviet Bloc are
listed below. The size, location, and most important products of
these plants are shown.
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Leningrad
Leningrad
Leningrad
Leningrad
Leningrad
Riga (IIa)
Tallinn (IIa)
Dnepropetrovsk (III)
Kharkov (III)
Kharkov
Khar'kav
Khar' kw
Kiev (III)
Pervomaysk (III)
Zaporozh'ye (III)
Baku (V)
Yerevan (v)
N.A. Transformers up to 500 kva, generators up to 100 kw,
small motors.
L Current transformers and switchgear for up to 500 kw. G
N.A. Power system switchboards. 51
VL Turbogenerators up to 150 mw, hydrogenerators up to 123
mw, motors up to 7,000' /hp. 5
L Motors up to 100 hp. f
L Power, control, and communications cable; bare, weather-
,proof, field, and magnet wire; coaxial cable.
VL Iydrogenerators up to 25 mw, motors up to 4,500 kw,
switchgear. 521
N.A. Hydrogen-cooled turbogenerators up to 150 mw.
N.A. Small and medium motors. 6
L Power, control, and communications cable; bare, weather-
proof, field, and magnet wire. 62/
L Motors up to 150 kw.
M Transformers up to 20 mva, transformers and circuit
breakers for up to 400 kv. !L4/
L Motors up to ~12~0~ kw, transformers up to 350 kva, mobile
generators. mil/
N.A. Power cable; bare, weatherproof, and magnet wire. 66
* Size designations are: S, small, 100 to 500 employees; M, medium, 501 to 1,000 employees; L, large 1,001 to 5,000 employees; VL, very large,
more than 5,000 employees. In the case of plants primarily engaged in nonelectr; l work. the designation is based on the electrical portion only.
** Numbers in parentheses refer to +1.e e
----
* This plant name has been observed: the plant appears to be associated with, or part of, the Kharkov complex.
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Yerevan
Kuybyshev (VI)
Bryansk (VII)
Kirs (VII)
Kol'chugino (VII)
Moscow (VII)
Moscow
Moscow
Moscow
Podol'sk (VII)
Tambov (VII)
Yaroslavl' (VII)
Baranchinskiy (VIII)
Sverdlovsk (VIII)
Sverdlovsk
Ufa (VIII)
Kemerovo (1X)
Tomsk (IX)
Tomsk
Stalinabad (X)
Tashkent (X)
Atka (XII)
Vladivostok (XII)
L Distribution transformers, mobile generators.
N.A. Medium motors, mobile generators. 68 ~n/
N.A. Power and telephone cable, magnet wire.
N.A. Turbogenerators up to 25 mw. LOJ
N.A. Power cable. Ili
N.A. Power, control, and communications cable. 2
VL Traction and mill motors up to 250 kw. J3
VL Motors 40 to 400 kw, rural station generators. L
L Power cable, bare and weatherproof wire.
VL Transformers up to 180 mva, 400 kv; switchgear. L6J
VL Gas-filled power cable; control and communications
cable; bare, weatherproof, and magnet wire.
proof, and field wire. L8J
N.A. Medium motors, portable generators.
L Medium motors. 80
N.A. Motors up to 340 kw. 81
12/
VL Hydrogenerators up to 21 mw, motors up to 2,370 kw,
medium transformers, switchgear, power rectifiers. 82
L Power and telephone cable, field and magnet wire. L
L High- and low-voltage wire and cable. 84
L Mine motors up to 250 hp.
L Telephone cable, magnet wire. 86
VL Motors up to 100 kw, small generators..
N.A. Motors, generators, transformers for agriculture. 88
L Power, control, communications cable; bare, weather-
S Medium motors and switchboards. v
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Burgas
Sofia
Bratislava
Bratislava
Brno
Brno
Decin/Podmokly
Decin/Podmokly
Doudlevice
Frenstat
Kladno
Mohelnice
Prague/Vysocany
Prague
Vsetin
East Germany
Berlin/Oberschoenweide
Berlin/Oberschoenweide
Berlin/Koepenick
Berlin/Treptow
Berlin! Weiss ensee
Vasil Kolarov Wire Plant S Power cable, telephone wire. 92
L Motors up to 160 hp, hydrogenerators up to 4,000 kw, trans-
formers up to 20,000 kva, switchgear. 93
Electrotechnical Plant (BEZ) (formerly CKD Krivan) L
Kablo Plant L
Julius Fucik Electrotechnical Plant
MEZ -- Zidenice (formerly Svet)
CKD -- Podmokly (formerly AEG)
Kablo Plant
V.I. Lenin Plant, "Gigant" (formerly Skoda)
MEZ -- Frenstat
Kablo Plant
MEZ -- Mohelnice (formerly Siemens)
CKD -- Stalingrad (formerly "Marshal Tito")
Kabelwerk Oberspree
Karl Liebknecht Transformer Plant (TRO)
Kabelwerk Koepenick
J.W. Stalin Plant (EAW)
Karl Liebknecht Transformer Plant II
(formerly Ziehl-Abegg)
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Medium motors and transformers. 94
Power, control and communications cable; bare, weather-
proof, and field wire. 95
L Current transformers, high- and low-voltage switchgear. J
L Motors up to 5 hp, amplidynes. 97
L Motors up to 5 kw, welding transformers. 2Y
M Telephone and high-voltage cable. 99
VL Turbogenerators up to 45 mw, motors up to 2,200 kw, trans-
formers up to 20 mva, switchgear. LL
L Medium induction and synchronous motors. 101
L Power cable. 102
L Small and medium motors. 2,03
VL Hydrogen-cooled turbogenerators up to 50 mw, motors up to
2,000 kw, transformers up to 100 mva, switchgear. 104
L Coaxial, power, control, and communications cable; field
wire. 11,05
L Generators up to 5,000 kw, motors up to 600 hp. 106
VL Power, control and communications cable; bare, weather-
proof, and magnet wire. 107
L Transformers up to 125 mva, current and potential trans-
formers up to 220 kv, high-voltage switchgear. 108
L Coaxial, power, control and communications cable; bare,
weatherproof, and magnet wire. 109
VL Industrial switchboards. 110
M Switchboards and switchgear. 111
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East Germany (Continued)
Berlin/Wilhelmsruh
Dessau
Dresden
Finsterwal'de
Gruenhain
Hartha
Heidenau
Leipzig
Muskau
Niedersedlitz
Oschersleben
Plauen
Radeberg
Reichenbach
Thurm
Wernigerode
Hungary
Budapest
Budapest
Budapest
Budapest
Bergmann-Borsig Plant L
VEB Elektromotorenwerk Dessau (formerly Bamag) L
Trans?ormatoren and Roentgenwerk (Tra Roe) L
(formerly Koch and Sterzel)
Fimag Machine Plant L
Elektromotorenwerk Gruenhain L
VEB KLeinstmotorenwerk (formerly Alfred Oemig M
and Company)
VEB Elmo Werk (formerly Elbtalwerk) L
VEB Galvanotechnikwerk Plant II (formerly Langbein L
and Pfannhaeuser)
VEB Hans Beimler (LEW)
Switch Plant
Sachsenwerk Niedersedlitz
Electric Motor Plant
Leitungwerk Plauen
Sachsenwerk Radeberg
Rectifier and Transformer Plant
VEB Elektromotorenwerk Thurm (formerly Stephan
Werke)
VEB Elektromotorenwerk Wernigerode
Turbogenerators up to 32 mw (turbines). 112
Motors up to 1,000 kw. 113
Transformers up to 70 mva, instrument and X-ray trans-
formers, switchgear. 114/
Generators up to 60 kw, portable generators. 115
Motors, 0.25 to 250 kw; generators, 40 to 100 kw. 116
Small precision motors, gyroscopes, converters. 117
Motors up to 250 kw, motor generators. 118
Motors and generators up to 200 kw. 119
L Turbogenerators up to 25 mw, traction motors (loco-
motive). 120
M Power, control and communications cable; bare, weather-
-proof, and magnet wire. 121
M High-voltage switchgear. 122
VL Turbogenerators up to 12 mw, motors up to 3,800 kw. 123
S Medium motors. LL
M Power cable; bare, weatherproof, and magnet wire. 125
L Small motors (electronic equipment). 126
S Transformers up to 200 kva. 127
M Small and medium motors. 128
L Motors up to 250 kw. 129
Cable and Synthetic Materials Plant (formerly L
subsidiary of Felton and Guilleaume)
Cable and Wire Rope Plant (formerly Felton and L
Guilleaume)
Electric Motor and Cable Plant (formerly Siemens) L
Power, control and communications cable; field wire. 130
Power, control and communications cable; field and
magnet wire. 131
Medium motors; power, control and communications cable;
field and magnet wire. 132
Ganz Switch and Apparatus Plant M Switchgear and switchboards. 133
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Budapest
Budapest
Kisforgogebgyar Plant
Klement Gottwald Electrical Plant
M Small motors. 134
VL Turbogenerators up to 34 mw, motors up to 3,000 hp, trans-
formers up to 45 mva, switchgear. 135
L Transformers up to 1,500 kva, current transformers, switch-
gear. 1,36
Bedzin
Bielsko
Bydgoszcz
Cieszyn
Dziedzice
Krakow
Lodz
Miedzylesie
Ozarow
Tarnow
Warsaw
Wire and Cable Plant
M4 Electric Motor Plant
Polish Cable Company
M2 Electric Motor Plant
State Cable Plant
Krakow Cable Plant
M3 Transformer Plant
A10 High-Voltage Switch Plant
Ozarow Cable Plant
Southern Electric Motor Plant
Gheorghi Dimitrov Electrical Plant (formerly
Zwann)
M5 Heavy Electrical Machinery Plant imeni
F. Dzierzynskiego
Ml Electric Machine and Transformer Plant imeni
Wilhelm Pieck (formerly Rohn-Zielinsky)
N.A. Telephone and high-voltage cable; field wire. 137
L Motors up to 55 hp. 138
M High- and low-voltage cable. 139/
L Motors up to 250 hp. 140
N.A. Telephone wire. 141
L Power cable, field wire. 142
L Transformers up to 25 mva, 110 kv; motors up to 250 hp. 143
L High-voltage switchgear. 144
L Power cable, field and magnet wire. 145
M Medium motors. 146
L Current transformers for up to 220 kv, high-voltage switch-
gear. 147
L Turbogenerators up to 2 mw, motors up to 2,800 hp.
M Motors up to 4,500 hp; transformers up to 31 mva,
110 kv. 149
Brasov (Stalin)
Bucharest
Bucharest
Bucharest
Electro-Precisia
Dynamo
Electrocablul
Klement Gottwald
M Motors, 0.15 to 22 kw. 150
L Generators up to 300 kw, motors up to 480 hp, transformers
up to 5,000 kw. 151
M N.A. 152
M Medium motors, transformers up to 300 kva, generators up
to 25 kw. 153
L Generators up to 3,000 kw, motors up to 1,000 kw, trans-
formers up to 15 mva, switchgear. 154
Recita
Timisoara
Sovrom Utilaj Petrolifer Plant (former Caros Judet) L Turbogenerators up to 3,000 kw, motors up to 600 kw. 155
Electromotor Timisoara M Motors, 1 to 30 hp. 156/
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APPENDIX C
METHODOLOGY
1. Accuracy.
All data in the tables on production in this report are rounded-to
two significant figures. Totals and percentages are derived from un-
rounded figures and do not always agree with rounded data shown. The
range of error in the estimates varies up to plus or minus 20 percent
for the years through 1955 and up to plus or minus 30 percent for the
years 1956-60.
The data for the USSR generally represent officially published sta-
tistical information as do the data for East Germany in many cases.
Among the other members of the Soviet Bloc, statistical information at
the industry level was relatively complete except for Czechoslovakia.
The over-all totals of electrical machinery for each country and for
the Soviet Bloc as a whole probably are more accurate than the indi-
yidual. estimate of a single product in a particular country.
2. Motors and Generators.
After all the available data on plans and their fulfillment were
assembled, the production of motors and generators in each year was
expressed in terms of a base year. The overlapping sets of data
were then combined into a single time series of index numbers. The
index numbers were converted to estimates of production by the use
of the production year for which the most accurate information was
available. The resulting figures were checked for order of magni-
tude and reasonableness against the capacity of known facilities for
production on the basis of individual plant studies or of number of
employees.
Absolute figures on production usually were derived from pub-
lished data on production or plans for 1 or 2 types of machinery
and projected to cover all types of machinery by means of an
assumed product mix. The completeness of the available data varied
widely from one country to another, but the procedure used in de-
riving estimates for the USSR is typical.
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The USSR has published absolute figures for the two main
categories of motors for prewar years and for the years 1950, 1951,
and 1955. 1'57/ Percentage increases were available for the years
1946-50, 15 leaving only three years for which no figures were
available. Prewar data from the USSR and postwar data from the US
indicated that the two main categories of motors represented about
80 percent of the total production of all motors. 159 The output
of all motors was estimated to be 1.25 times the total of the two
main categories of motors. The figures for motors reasonably check
with correlation factors-associating electric power, generators, and
transformers with motors. The figures for motors also were checked
by reconstructing the end use requirements of major categories of
motors other than the two main categories for which data were avail-
able. In these estimates an average value was assigned to groups of
motors such as fractional-horsepower motors for consumer goods and
direct-current traction motors, for which end product requirements
were approximately known. Estimates of possible production of
various categories of motors in 1960 were derived from Plan figures
by the use of corelation factors, and the entire series was extra-
polated from 1956 to 1960.
The USSR has published prewar data, data for 1950, 1954--55,
and 1960 Plan data for the two major categories of large generators. 160
Data on Plan fulfillment were published in the form of percentage in-
creases for the years from 1951-53, 161 but data for 1946-1+9 were not
given. These latter years were estimated by correlation factors as-
sociating electric power and turbines with generators. All years were
checked by plant estimates. Plant estimates were most complete for
the years 191+6-1+9
These data were further checked by estimates of
the production of generators used in equipment and of engine-driven
generators. The resultant totals represent 95 percent of all genera-
tors. The planned output of large generators was given for 1960, and
the years 1956-60 were obtained by semilogarithmic extrapolation. 162
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b. European Satellites.
A procedure similar to that used in deriving estimates for the
USSR was used to estimate production of motors and generators in Czech-
oslovakia, 163 East Germany, 164 Poland, 116L5/ and Rumania. 166 For
these European Satellites, some data usually were available in terms of
kilowatts of motors or generators, instead of numbers of units. In
some cases, figures on actual production, as contrasted with planned
goals, were available. In the case of Hungary, 167 the reported produc-
tion of the one major electrical machinery plant was used as the basis
for determining production in several plants. In the case of Bulgaria, 168
a much less satisfactory method was employed. In the absence of any quan-
titative data, production of motors was estimated at 2.5 times the annual
increase in generating capacity, a ratio somewhat lower than that of the
US or the USSR because Bulgaria does not make or use so many large motors
as a more industrialized country.
3. Transformers and Switchgear.
a. Transformers.
Absolute figures for postwar production of transformers in the
USSR were not available. Because the relationship between 1950, 1955,
and plans for 1960 was expressed, however, it was possible to set up a
complete production series for transformers once the figure for 1955
had been established. Several methods were used to obtain the figure
for production of transformers in 1955, as follows:
(1) Estimates of production in specific plants were totaled;
(2) Production of kw of large motors was multiplied by a
factor of 1.75 to give kva of transformers;
(3) Production of kw of large generators was multiplied by a
factor of 3.25 to give kva of transformers;
(4) The annual power increase in 1,000 kwh was multiplied by
a factor of .78 to give kva of transformers.
All these methods yielded closely comparable outputs. With 1955
as a base year, the figures for 1956-60 were extrapolated and modified by
possible limits on production. Given the 1955 relationship to 1950, it
was only necessary to interpolate between.1950-55 and to extrapolate back
to 1946 to complete the series. All figures were checked against produc-
tion of the individual plants.
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The general procedure for estimating production of transformers
in the Satellites was similar to that for production of motors and gen-
erators. Absolute figures for at least one year were available for
Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Poland, and Rumania in the same sources
given for the estimates of production of motors and generators. In
the case of Hungary, production of the two known major plants was used.
In the case of Bulgaria, the estimate was based on the annual increase
in generating capacity, allowing for the fact that Bulgaria imported
the larger transformers until 1954. 169
b. Switchgear.
Switchgear, considered as a function of generating capacity,
may be measured by transformer capacity inasmuch as switchgear and
transformers are often ordered as a unit. There were enough data to
establish a ratio between switchgear and transformers in several
countries. For countries such as Hungary, however, where the produc-
tion of transformers was not known, switchgear was valued at 0.3 times
motors, based on US data for 1947. On the same basis, a value ratio
for switchgear of 1.76 times the value of transformers was used in the
USSR, and a ratio of 1.75 was used for East Germany, Bulgaria and'
Czechoslovakia. Information on Poland was sufficient to permit inde-
pendent estimates. Information on Rumania indicates very limited
production of switchgear, which was estimated at a nominal figure of
20 percent of the value of transformers, based on employment totals
in manufacturing plants.
4. Electric Wire and Cable. 170
a. General.
Estimates for each member of the Soviet Bloc were made on the
basis of plant studies covering a prewar year and the period 1946-55.
Total production for selected years was established for the various
countries by adding plant estimates. Time series of annual production
in each country were established on the basis of published indexes, 171
reference to data on utilization of capacity in given years, probable
war damage, and interpolation between years on the.basis of plant
studies. 172 The country estimates were checked by analogy with the,
US. The relationship of the value of insulated electric wire and cable
to the value of selected items of electrical machinery and electronic
and telecommunications equipment was computed for the US and the USSR
for selected years and compared. This comparison and a similar comparison
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for. the ratio of increase in the annual value of production of insulated
wire and cable over the increase in production of electric power during
selected years indicated that the Bloc estimates were of a reasonable
order of magnitude. The estimates were then extended to 1960 on the
basis of rates of increase obtaining in the past, modified by informa-
tion on expansion plans and possibilities. 171
The value of production of individual plants in the Soviet Bloc
was derived by. estimating the labor productivity of the plants in rela-
tion to the average labor productivity obtaining-in four Soviet plants.
The estimated labor productivity times the estimated labor force produced
the estimated value of production for each Bloc plant studied. The
reasonability of the estimates was checked by reference to the labor
productivity of eight East German plants. An estimate of labor produc-
tivity was then made for the 4 Soviet and the 8 East German plants
because the value of production and the labor forces of the various plants
could be independently estimated. 172 Because electric wire and cable
is a non-homogeneous product, only value was used to measure its produc-
tion.
5. Estimates of Value.
Estimates of the value of annual production of electrical machinery
in the Soviet Bloc are given in 1953 US dollars and are proportional to
estimates of physical production of motors, generators, and transformers.
Estimates of the value of production of switchgear were discussed above.*
Coefficients such as dollars per kilowatt wexe derived from the US fig-
ures for 1947 adjusted to 1953. 173 These coefficients are based on US
costs, methods, and product mix and do not reflect differences in these
factors between the US and the various countries of the Soviet Bloc.
The specific coefficients are: $44 per kw for motors, $21 per kw for
generators, and $10 per kva for transformers.
6. Projections.
Estimates of production of electrical machinery in the Soviet Bloc
in 1954-60 were projected on a straight-line basis for all items except
electric wire and cable. Estimates of wire and cable were extended to
P. 48, above.
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1960 by the use of rates of increase of electric power as a correlation
coefficient. The totals were modified on the basis of expansion capa-
bilities. Because current information on plants indicates the continu-
ing expansion of manufacturing facilities, production is expected to
increase. The very high rate of annual increase in production since
1946, however, may be attributed in part to the low initial value of an
industry badly damaged by war, and this rate may not be sustained in-
definitely.
7. Estimates of Selected Inputs.
a. Motors, Generators, Transformers, and Switchgear.
Inputs of steel, iron castings, aluminum, and copper for produc-
tion of electrical machinery in the Soviet Bloc in 1955 were calculated
from estimates of the value of production in 1955, and input factors in
terms of metric tons per million dollars of value were obtained from the
1947 US Census of Manufactures. Transformer and dynamo sheet steel fac-
tors were based on the reported requirements of the USSR and East Germany
and the estimate of production in each country in the year for which the
requirement was given. 174 Table 17* shows estimates of selected input
factors for production of electrical machinery in the Soviet Bloc in 1955.
Estimates of inputs for production of electric wire and cable are
revisions derived directly from estimates for 1955
Approximately 9 percent of the copper input represents magnet wire, which
is used principally in the manufacture of electrical machinery and appa-
ratus.
8. Estimates of Trade.
* Table 17 follows on p. 51.
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Table 17
Estimates of Selected Input Factors for Production of Electrical Machinery
in the Soviet Bloc, by Type of Product
1955
Metric Tons per Unit of Production
Product
Unit of
Production
Q/
Steel J
Transformer
Sheet
Steel
Dynamo
Sheet
Steel
Iron
Castings
Aluminum
Copper
Motors and generators
Million 1953
US $
420
120
6.9
29
Megawatts
11
Transformers
Million 1953
us $
450
7.7
1.4
71
Megawatts
4
Switchgear
Million 1953
Us $
180
8.1
3.1
35
a. Includes carbon and alloy steels, steel castings, and transformer and dynamo sheet steel.
b. Includes wire mill shapes and forms but not magnet wire.
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either to the relative value of plant production shipped to other
Bloc countries or to specific pieces of equipment produced for
delivery within the Bloc. All information obtained was converted
to percentages of total production, representing trade within the
Bloc. For this purpose the estimated average of exports of several
large and typical plants in each country were considered to be
representative of the country being studied. The value of production
of electrical machinery for each country, shown in Table 2,* was multi-
plied by the percentage contributed by that country to trade within
the Bloc.
Another pattern of distribution of trade within the Sino-Soviet
Bloc was derived by estimating the total imports received by each coun-
try without regard to the country of origin. The value of such imports
for each country then was adjusted on the basis of the estimated value
of trade within the Bloc. The necessary adjustment downward was less
than 10 percent for each country.
The margin of error of the estimates for trade is plus or minus
30 percent.
P. 18, above.
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