PETROLEUM RESOURCES OF THE URAL-VOLGA AREA OF THE USSR

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01141A000500110002-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 49
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 23, 2013
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: August 15, 1955
• Content Type: REPORT

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ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE REPORT
PETROLEUM RESOURCES
OF THE URAL-VOLGA AREA
OF THE USSR
CIA/RR 61
15 August 1955
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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WARNING
This material contains information affecting
the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning Hof the espionage laws,
Tltle 18, USC, Secs. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
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PETROLEUM RESOURCES OF THE URAL-VOLGA AREA
OF THE USSR
CIA/RR 61
(GRR Project 25.635)
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This report is a summary of and an annex to a comprehensive geo-
logic report -- a petroleum resource study -- on the Ural-Volga area
of the USSR It also 50X1
contains an evaluation of the subject based on the findings of the
geologic report. The geologic report is summarized in Sections I and
II (except ZI, D). A quantitative evaluation of the potential petro-
leum resources of the Ural-Volga area is given in Section II, D, and
forecasts of petroleum production in the area are given in Section III.
Research for the geologic report was finished on 1 September 1954,
and the report was submitted on 1 November 1954. The analysis and
evaluation based on the geologic report and incorporated in the present
report was c~npleted on 1 December 1954. Supplementary data which
became available before the present report was submitted for publi-
cation have been included.
Proposed input studies on the Ural-Volga area based on this report
and other sources can now be made. Such studies will reveal the level
of economic effort required to find and develop the petroleum resources
of the area at the rate indicated by the forecasts contained herein.
It is emphasized that all estimates and forecasts in this report
are in terms of crude oil as the principal component of petroleum
resources and petroleum production. Natural gas liquids and natural
gas are not included. Some estimates of crude oil in other sources
are actually total liquid petroleum hydrocarbons: that is, crude
oil plus natural gas liquids. In this report the practice of the US
petroleum industry is followed of discriminating among crude oil,
natural gas liquids, and natural gas when quantitative references are
made to petroleum.
The difference between petroleum resources and reserves should be
noted. Petroleum resources are the estimated ultimate quantities of
petroleum which may be found and recovered. Petroleum reserves are
the estimated remaining quantities of petroleum which can be recovered
from known deposits under existing economic and operating conditions.
It has not been feasible with t}ais re ort t att m
coordination with other asencies.
50X1
50X1 ~I
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Summary and Conclusions ...
1
I. Geologic Summary
3
II. Petroleum Resources
5
A.
Geographic Distribution
5
B.
Geologic Distribution
5
C.
Character of Oil
?
6
D.
Quantitative Evaluation of Petroleum
Resources
7
III. Forecasts of Petroleum Production
7
A.
Basis for Forecasts
7
B.
Forecasts for the Ural-Volga Area _
9
C.
Forecasts as a Basis for Estimating Inputs
11
D.
Forecasts for the USSR Less Ural-Volga Area
11
E.
Middle East and Over-All Comparisons
]2
F.
Strategic Significance of Forecasts
13
Appendix A. Statistical Data on Petroleum Production
and Reserves Showing Relationship of US PAW
District 3 to Potential Petroleum Resources
in the Ural-Volga Area, USSR, and on Other
,Regions for Analogy and Comparison 15
Appendix B. Methodology 33
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1. Estimated Petroleum Resources of the Ural-Volga Area
of the.USSR, 1954 8
2. Comparison of Petroleum Development in the Ural-Volga Area
in the USSR and in PAW District 3 in the US 10
3. Estimates of Annual Crude Oil Production in the USSR,
1900-54, and Forecasts, 1955-72, with the Ural-Volga Area
Shown Separately 17
4. Crude Oil Production and Reserves in the Ural-Volga Area,
USSR, Annual Estimates, 1929-54, and Annual Forecasts,
1955 -72 22
5. Crude Oil Production and Reserves in the USSR Less Ural-
Volga Area, Annual Estimates, 1900-54, and Annual
Forecasts, 1955-72' 24
6. Significant Relationships between Crude Oil Production,
Reserves, and Potential Resources in Two Selected Regions
of the US and in the Middle East, 1900-53 27
7. Estimated Annual Crude Oil Production in the Ural-Volga
Area, USSR, by Groups, 1929-54 30
Following Page
Figure 1. USSR: Ural-Volga Region: Petroleum Resources
(Map) 4
Figure 2. USSR: Annual Crude Oil Production, 1900-70
(Chart) 6
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Figure 3. Ural-Volga Area, USSR: Cumulative Gross
Additions to Crude 011 Reserves and Cumu-
lative Production, 1900-70 (Chart) 10
Figure 4. PAW District. 3, US: Cumulative Gross Additions '
to Crude Oil Reserves and Cumulative Production,
1900-53 (Chart) 10'
Figure 5. USSR Less Ural-Volga Area: Cumulative Gross
Additions to Crude Oil Reserves and Cumulative
Production, 1900-70 (Chart) 12
Figure 6. US Less PAW District 3: Cumulative Gross
Additions to .Crude Oil Reserves and Cumulative
Production, 1900-53 (Chart) 12
Figure 7. Middle East: Cumulative Gross Additions to
Crude Oil Reserves and Cumulative Production, '
1911-53 (Chart) 14
Figure 8. US, USSR, and Middle.East: Comparative Petro- .
leum Resource Development Rates, 1900-80
(Chart ) '. 14
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CIA/RR 61
(ORR Project 25.635)
PETROLEUM RESOURCES. OF THE URAL-VOI~,A AREA
OF-THE USSR*.
. Petroleum production in the Ural-Volga. area, or :'Second Baku," of
the USSR shown in Figure l,*-~.c~prising parts of Economic Regions VI,
VII, and VIII,*~*~ has increased much more. rapidly than.in the rest of
the USSR. In 1938 the Ural-Volga area produced 1.2 million metric
tons,~**~- or 4 percent, of the .total Soviet crude oil production of
30.1 million tons. In 1954 its contribution is estimated to have
been 41 percent, or 22.1 million tons, of the total Soviet crude oil
production of 53.6 million tons, excluding natural gas liquids. The.
crude oil production forecast for 1970 is 73 million tons in the Ural-,
Volga area, or 61 percent of the total Soviet crude oil production of
119 million tons forecast for .1970. Figure?2** reflects this ,
differential growth rate of .the petroleum industry in the USSR. ,
The potential crude oil resources of.the Ural-Volga area are esti-
mated to range from 5.5 billion to 7.6 billion tons, which is to be -
compared with estimated potential crude oil resources of 8.4 billion
tons in the southwestern oil region of the US comprising the 6 states
of Texas, New Mexico, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi,. and Alabama..
(Off-shore resources are not included in this estimate.) These two
areas are of comparable size (475,000 square. miles .in the Ural-Volga .
area and 580,000 square miles in the US southwest), and they are some-
what similar geologically, so that significant comparisons can be made.
~ The estimates and conclusions contained in this report represent
the best judgment of.ORR as of 1 February 1955?
*-~ Following p. 4.
*~'* The term re ion in this a
define 50X1-H U M
USSR: ~canzmro~eglons.
*~*~*-~ Tonnages throughout this report are given in metric tons.
*~** Following p. 6.
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It is estimated that petroleum exploration and development in the-
Ural-Volga since discovery in 1929 have found and proved 12.6 percent
of the potential petroleum resources in that area. In the US south-
west, since discovery in 1889, 66.6 percent of the potential petroleum
resources have been discovered and proved. Cumulative production to
date in the two areas, in percent of potential resources, is only 1.9
percent for the Ural-Volga as compared with 35.7 percent for the US
southwest.
It is clear that a great era of petroleum exploration and develop-
ment lies ahead for the Ural-Volga area of the USSR. Forecasts for the
period 1955-70 shown in Figure 2* indicate that by 1970 about 35 per-
cent of the total petroleum resources of the area will have been
developed and about 14 percent of the total resources will have been
produced. These forecasts are based on the data revealed in a geofiogic.
report on the Ural-Volga area ~*~*~ -- a petroleum resource study --
and on the ass~ption that the 1955-70 period of development in the
Ural-Volga area will follow the trend in the US southwest during its
comparable period of development, which-was from about 1925 to 1940.
The rock strata penetrated in Ural-Volga wells are similar to
those of West Texas. They are much harder and more difficult to drill
than the strata in the Caspian and Caucasus oil areas of the USSR, and
the oil yield per acre is lower than in the Baku fields. Most of the
Ural-Volga oil has a fairly high sulfur contents which adds to the
refining problem.
In order to reveal the future impact of the Ural-Volga area on the
Soviet petroleum industry, tentative 1955-70 forecasts of annual crude
oil production have been developed for the entire USSR, for the USSR
excepting the Ural-Volga area, and for the Ural-Volga area alone (see
Figure 2). These forecasts indicate that by 1970 the Ural-Volga area
will be producing about 61 percent of the petroleum production of the
USSR compared with 41 percent in 1954. The basis for the forecasts
covering the remainder of the USSR outside the Ural-Volga area is com-
paratively less adequate. Additional petroleum resource studies when
completed will provide a basis for more dependable production forecasts
together with estimates of the economic effort required for exploi-
tation..
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Studies of regional petroleum resources provide, a basis for specific
forecasts of petroleum production and resulting capabilities. Such
forecasts are, of course, dependent on the economic capabilities to find
and develop the resources, but the.requirecl levels of economic efi'ort
can be determined on the basis of such resource studies. Nith respect
to vulnerabilities, regional petroleum resource studies can be of some
value in indicating probable location .and trends of future development.
A petroleum resource study of a single region is?also of some value
as an indicator of intentions. Combined with, other. regional petroleum
resource studies covering the important petroleum areas of the country,
a concise evaluation of long-term intentions should be feasible. For
example, if the total internal petroleum resources and their availabil-
ity are adequate for the long-term economic needs of. the country, then
indicated intentions to acquire or control external petroleum resources
should be negative. If, on the other hand, such potential resources
appear to be either inadequate or too difficult to exploit, attempts to
obtain external,.resources might be expected. The degree of adequacy of
petroleum resources will also indicate intentions concerning plans for.
international trade in petroleum.
I. Geologic Summary.
The Ural-Volga oil-producing area, also known as the "Second Baku
region," is a large triangular area in the lowland of eastern European .
USSR as shown in Figure 1.~- It adjoins the west side of the Ural Moun-
tains and extends westward across the Volga River. Molotov, U?a, and
Sterlitamak~are along the east side of the triangular area next to the
Urals, Stalingrad is at the southwest corner of the area, and Kuybyshev
and Bugcmuslan are at its center.
The area here described lies between 40o and 58o,east longitude and
between 48? and 60? north latitude and includes about 475,000:square
miles.
-3-
S-E-C-RAE-T
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'The Moscow basin which adjoins the west margin of the Ural-Volga
area received same study as a part of the present investigation.
Because this study indicated that the Ural-Volga area offers much
greater promise for future potential oil resources than the Moscow
basin, most bf the effort was concentrated on the Ural-Volga area.
The surface of the area lies for the most part less than 1,000
feet above sea level, but it reaches an altitude of 1,217 feet in the
Samara Bend of the Volga, 1,702 feet on the UPa Plateau, and 1,800 '
Peet at a point south of Sterlitamak.' The'Ural Mountains east oP the
region rise to an altitude of 5,377 feet. The lowest altitude, 65
feet below sea level, is on the Volga near Stalingrad.
The Ural-Volga oil-producing area is centrally located in eastern
European USSRa As shown in Figure 1,* other oil-producing regions in
the USSR are the Ukhta fields to the north; the Emba fields to the
south~ad~acent bo the north end of the Caspian Sea near Gur.'yev; the
Baku, Groznyy, Krasnodar and other fields to the south and southwest
adjacent to the Caucasus Mountains west of the Caspian Sea; and the
Nebit-Dag fields east of the Caspian Seas opposite the Baku pil
district.
The rocks of the Ural-Volga area -- chiefly sandstone, shale, lime-
stone, dolomite, anhydrite, and gypsum -- are exposed in some places at
the surface and have been penetrated in other places by the malty wells
of the oil and gas fields. These sddimentary rocks occur in nearly
horizontal beds, or strata, and contain the petroleum deposits of the
area. These rock strata, as shown by the oil and gas wells; extend from
the surface to depths of 1,500 meters in-much of the Ural-Volga area and
to 3,000 meters in the eastern part of the area. Furthermore, exposures
of the rock strata near the Ural Mountains show that their thickness
there exceeds 7,000 meters.
Exploration Edr oil and gas in the Ural-Volga area involves not only
a search for favorable structures but also the drilling of test wells.
Exploration for, and the development and exploitation of, petroleum
resources in this area have witnessed the application of along and
probably complete list of known techniques employed by the petroleum
industry.
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CONFIDENTIAL
USSR: Ural -Volga Region
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Q Area unfavorable far economic oil deposits .....-........... Arbitrary delineation
? 011 and/or gas field . Exploited seepage-minor oil field
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The rock strata that are drilled for oil-and gas'in the.Ural-
Volga area are much older in their geologic age than the'oil-producing
rocks of the Baku and the many other fields ad3acent to the Caucasus
Mountains and the Caspian Sea. Also,"they are much har$er and there-
fore more coatly'to drill. ~ ~ ~ ,. '
II. Petroleumm Resources.
A. Geographic Distribution.
Petroletimi is now being produced from 50 or more oil and gas
fields in the Ural-Volga. As shown in Figure 1,* these fields are
grouped in'districts extending from Molotov in the northeast to '
Stalingrad in the southwest. The production of dude oil in these
groups is given in Appendix k, Table 5.*+~- For administrative purposes
each group may contain more than one trust, and each trust includes
a number of"individual fields: Thus'Bashneft', which in 1954 yielded
68 percent of the total crude oil produced in the Ural-Volga area,
included the Tuymazyneft' fields west of Ufa and the Ishimbayneft'
fields south oP Ufa. The next most important group is Kuybyshevneft'
in the Samara bend of the Volga River. This group accounted for 23
percent of the'.1954 crude oil production'of the area. The remaining
9 percent of the 1954 production is diet'ributed to the remaining
groups as indicated in Table 5. In addition, Saratovneft' is an
important producer of natural gas, which is shipped by pipeline to
Moscow, a distance of about 800 kilometers.
B. Geologic Distribution..
Petroleum in the Ural Volga area is produced from 7 zones of
different geologic age ranging in depth from 40 to 3,000 meters. The
first 3 zones are of minor actual and potential aig'nificance, pro-
ducing only about 2 percent of the current crude oil production.
Zoae 4 is estimated to be yielding about 16 percent of the
current crude oil production in the Ural-Volga area. It .produces in
the Molotovneft' and Bashneft' groups. Sonde of the fields oP this
zone have produced since the early 1930's and are approaching
exhaustion. The potential for future production from Zone 4 is good,
* Following p. t}.
** P. 24, below.
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xith emphasis bn the eastern part of the .Ural-Volga area from Molotov
south to Ufa and beyond.
Zone 5 is producing in many fields in the southwestern part
of the Ural-Volga area. Currently it is estimated to be .producing
about 8 percent of the total crude oil in the area, and it is the
major zone producing natural gas in the Stalingrad district. Future
discoveries in this zone are probable throughout the area in which .
it now produces.
' Zone 6 is producing an estimated 18 percent oP the current
crude oil production in the Ural-Volga area. It is the second most
important petroliferous zone in the area and is productive in fields
throughout the central part of the area from Saratov to Ufa. It is
an important gas producer at Saratov and,one of the major producing
zones in the Samara bend of the Volga River. It is also an important
oil producer at Tuymazy, west of Ufa. In.the future, many new deposits
yet to be discovered throughout the central part of the. Ural-Volga area
may be expected to yield important quantities of oil from Zone 6.
Zone 7, the famous "Devonian" discovered at Tuymazy in 1944, is
by far the most important petroleum-producing zone in the Ural-Volga
area. It is estimated to be producing 56 percent of the current crude
oil production, and it has been the prine+lpal contributor to the .rapid
increase in petroleum production in the Ural-Volga area during the past
10 years. The producing deposits are sandstone 7 to 30 meters thick
with good porosity and permeability. They are Pound at depths ranging
from 1,450 to 3,000 meters, increasing in depth from west to east.
Zone 7 will be the principal source of future petroleum production in
the Ural-Volga area. These Devonian strata underlie the entire area,
and they may eventually prove to contain petroleum deposits throughout
the entire area, The greatest potential for future petroleum pro-
dnction, however, lies in.the eastern part ,of the-area between the
Volga River and the Ural Mountains.
C. Character of 011.
The oil produced in the Ural-Volga area is, in general, quite
heavy and is therefore low in gasoline content. It also has a fairly
high sulfur content, thus adding to the refining problems. 011 from
the deeper zones, however, tends to be lighter and has,a lesser sulfur
content than the shallow oils. 031 from the eastern Pields is,,_in-
general, lighter than oil from the same zone in fields farther_.to the
west.
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USSR
Annual Crude Oil Production,1900-70
SECRET
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ESTIMATE
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', D. Quantitative Evaluation~of Petroleum Resources. .. ?
The petroleum resources of any given region depend upon the
geologic conditions which control the occurrence 'of petroleum deposits
in that region. Until recent years, petroleum geologists were limited
to qualitative evaluations of undiscovered regional petroleum resources,
but malty years of analytical study cSf the geologic factors controlling
the occurrence of petroleum deposits throughout the world has led to a
basis for quantitative evaluation of undiscovered petroleum resources.
Such a quantitative evaluation depends first upon a complete geologic
study of the selected region. The actual quantitative evaluation of
the petroleum resources of the region is then made by the application
of comprehensive knowledge and experience in petroleum exploration
and development throughout the world to the geological conditions of
the region. '
In recent years the quantitative evaluation of petroleum
resources throughout the world has been.the.sub~ect of comprehensive
study by at least one major company operating world wide. .In 1948
this company released estimates of the petroleum resources of the
world by ma,7or countries or regions. ~ Since that time, two papers
on the subject have been published one in 1950. and another in
1952? ~ The 1954 geologic report on which the present study is based
contains the most recent quantitative evaluation.
Estimated petroleum resources of the Ural-Volga area of the
USSR in 1954 are shown in Table 1.~ The probable range of these
estimates is from 40 billion to 55 billion barrels, or from 5.5
billion to 7.6 billion tons. Figure 1*-~ shows the area to which
the estimates apply.
III. Forecasts of .Petroleum Production.
A. Basis for Forecasts.
The primary value of a regional estimate of petroleum resources
such as that given in II, above, for the Ural-Volga area is for fore-
casting the probable petroleum production from the region under arty
given or assumed program of exploration and development. Where no
specific program has been proposed production forecasts can be made
* Table 1 ?fOllowa oa p: 8.
**- Following p. 4.
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by analogy with a similar region which bas been wholly or partially
developed. Such an analogy necessarily assumes equivalent or some-
what similar conditions in the two regions during the particular stage
of development covered by the forecasts.
.Estimated Petroleum Resources of the Ural-Volga Area
of the USSR
1954
Total Ultimate Potential
Area Shown
Square
Barrels
per
Million
Millioq
in Figure 1
Miles
Square Mile
Barrels
Metrlc Tons
3 ~
124,000..
225,000
27,900 -.
3,828:9.
2
120,000
.100,000
12,000
1,646:8
3
231,000
40,000
9,240
1,268.0
Total
475,000 ..
49,i4o.
6,743.7
a. .The estimates are for crude oil. Natural-.gas and natural gas
liquids are not included.
b. The conversion factor is 0.137235. tons per barrel.
Three basic variables are used 3n. order to provide a convenient
basis for analogy or for comparisori'of various oil-producing regions,
as follows:
1. Cumulative production, annually, expressed as a percentage
of the estimated ultimate petroleum resources of the region.
2., Cumulative gross additions to reserves (also.called.cumu-.
lative discoveries annually, expressed as a percentage,~of the estimated
ultimate petroleum resources of the region. For any given year the
cumulative gross additions to reserves minus the cumulative`productinn
equals the proved reserves for that year. ?-
- 8 -
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3. The annual ratio of .proved reserves to the current annual
production. ., .
It will be noted that .the three basdc variables are dimension-
less: that is, they, are expressed in,percentages and ratios:. There-
fore, direct comparison can be made between different petroleum-
producing regions. This is. done most conveniently by graphic represen-
tation, as in Figures 3 to 7.*~ Usually these variables are computed
and forecasts made in terms of crude oil. Natural gas and natural gas
liquids are components of petroleum production which may be wasted
during the early development of a region because of lack of conser-
vation facilities or markets. Therefore, these components are usually
the subject of separate and subsidiary studies.
Careful consideration of petroleum regions on which data are
available led to the conclusion that the best available region for
comparison with the Ural-Volga area is Petroleum Administration Por
War (PAW) District 3 in the US. Dim ing World War II the PAW divided
the US into five districts known as PAW Districts, and production and.
reserve data were developed for each district and are still reported_
on that basis. PAW District 3 is the most important petroleum- ?
producing district in the US, containing the six states of Alabama,
Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Texas, and New Mexico._ This com-
prises the so-called southwest oil region of the US. A comparison of
the current status of petroleum development in the Ural-Volga area
and PAW District 3 is shown in Table 2.*-~
Figures 3 and 4+~ provide a graphic comparison of the three
basic variables previously described between the Ural-Volga area and
PAW District 3. The forecasts shown in Figure 3 for the Ural-Volga
area are based on direct analogy with the. same period of relative
development in?PAW District 3. For the cumulative gross additions to
reserves, the forecast period 1955-70 for the Ural-Volga area corresponds
to the period 1927-41 in PAW District 3. For the cumulative production,
the forecast period 1955-70 for the Ural-Volga area corresponds to the
period 1923-40 in PAW District 3. The assumed correspondence of these
* Figures 3 and 4 follow p. 10; Figures 5 and 6 follow p. 12;
Figure 7 follows.p. 14.
*~' Table 2 follows on p. 10.
Following p. 10.
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two factors gives the ratio of proved reserves to annual production
for the forecast period 1955-70 for the Ural-Volga area, as shown in
Figure 3.~ This ratio follows the same general pattern shown for
PAW District 3 in Figure 4~ and for other areas shown in Figures $,
6, and 7.~, The typical pattern of this ratio, which shows a steep
initial decline followed by a much flatter decline, is explained by
the period of primary development during which more reserves are
proved up than can be utilized, followed by the period of secondary
development during which the relationship between reserves and utili-
zation becomes stabilized.
Comparison of Petroleum Development in the Ural-Volga Area
in the USSR and in PAW District 3 in the US
Item for Comparison
Ural-Vo ga
Area J
US PAW
District 3
Area (thousand square miles)
X75
5$0
Petroleum resources (billion metric tons,
crude oil)
6.7
8.4
First oil production (year)
1929
1~9
Percent of resources discovered
and proved (to 1953-54)
12.6
66.6
Percent 'of resources produced (to 1953-54)
1.9
35.7
Number of oil and gas fields (1954)
5D
3,35$
Total wells dr311ed (to 1954)
427,262
Producing oil wells (1953)
172,064
1953 production (million metric tons)
19.2
190.3
Cumulative production (to 1953-55)
(million metric tons) 126.1 2,9$3.5
Cumulative gross additions to reserves
(to 1953-55) (million metric tons) $50 5,600
1953 ratio of proved reserves
to current annual production 33.1 13?$
a. Data from Table~+, p. 22, below, and sources cited therein.
b. Data derived from Table 6, p. 27, below, and sources cited therein.
* Following p. 10.
~, Figures 5 and 6 follow p. 12; Figure 7 follows p. 14.
S -E -C -R-E -T
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SECRET
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970
Ratio of proved reserves
to annual production
ESTIMATE
S
FO
RECASTS
~
Cumulative
gross /
additions to
reserves/
4
~
v
a
/
/
i
e
.,''
~
'o z
Cumulati
ve ~
m >"
producti
on/
~
N
~~
/
O
N
NL
~
,
URAL-VOLGA AREA, USSR
Cumulative Gross Additions to
Crude Oil Reserves, and Cumulative Production,1900-70
SECRET
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PAW DISTRICT 3, US
- Cumulative Gross Additions to
Crude Oil Reserves, and Cumulative Production,1900-53
Ratio of proved reserves
\o annual production
Cumulative gross
additions to reserves
13859 6-55
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On the basis of .the foregoing analogy,, the forecasts 1955-70?
for the Ural-Volga area call for gross additions to reserves during.
this period of 1.5 billion tons (see Table 2*~. During the corre-
sponding period 1927-41 in PAW District 3 gross additions t_o reserves
amounted to 2 billion tons (see Table 4*-~-j.
C. Forecasts as a Basis for Estimating Inputs.
As the gross additions to petroleum reserves in any region are
a direct result of the total input of materials and labor into the
exploration and development of the petroleum resources in that region,
the foregoing type of. analogy can be used as a basis for estimating
inputs into the petroleum industry of the region. The data given in
Table 2 for the Ural-Volga area combined with input data on PAW Dis-
trict 3 can therefore be used as a basis-for estimates and forecasts
of inputs into ,the petroleum industry in that .area, with appropriate
modifications for the differences in specific conditions between-the
Ural-Volga area and PAW District 3.
D. Forecasts for..the USSR Less Ural-Vo1ga.Area.
In order. to derive the maximum immediate value from the geo-
logic report and the evaluation and forecasts of petroleum resources
in the Ural-Volga area, 10 tentative evaluations and forecasts are
presented on the remainder of the USSR. The bases for these latter
evaluations and forecasts are as follows:
1. Estimated petroleum resources of the USSR, published in ',
1948. 11~ This estimate, amounting to 20.6 billion tons (150 billion
barrel;covers all of the USSR except the off-shore areas.
2. Estimated gross additions to reserves in the USSR during the
20-year period. 1952-72, published in 1952. 12 This. estimate, amount-
ing to 3 billion tons, took into account both the geologic potential and
the economic capabilities to explore and develop petroleum resources.
Figure, 3*~*- shows the results of the analysis of the USSR
less the Ural-Volga area. For comparison, Figure 6-~ shows the US
less PAW District 3. It will be noted that in the USSR the indicated
* P. 10~ above..
*~' P. 22, belox.
**~ Following p. 10.
**~-~ Following p. 12.
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development rate is very much slower than in the US. This difference
indicates the need for additional regional studies on the US similar
to that of the geologic report on the Ural-Volga area. 13/ Until this
is done, the evaluations and forecasts shown herein of the USSR less
the Ural-Volga area should be considered tentative.
Figure 7* illustrates the extreme range in the basic variables
depicting the development of petroleum resources, showing the values of
these. variables for the Middle East. In this phenomenal oil-producing
area of 2,716,000 square miles, current cumulative gross additions to
reserves amount to 11.8 billion tons. This vast quantity of proved oil,
equal to over twice that in US PAW District 3, has been found and
developed with the drilling of'only 1,272 wells. This is equal to 9.3
million tons added to reserves for each well drilled, compared with
about 13,000 tons per well drilled in PAW District 3, or more than 700
times greater return per well drilled. 14
The remarkably high rate of development in the Middle Eaet can
be attributed to the three following factors, which dominate petroleum
resource development;
1. Productivity.
The exceptional productivity of Middle East petroleum deposits
is reflected in the foregoing comparison of Middle East wells with those
in US PAW District 3.
There is ready access to world markets in the Middle East.
Most of the fields are close to tidewater.
The effect of competitive conditions began to appear in the
Middle East about 1940, as shown in Figure 7.*
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SECRET
USSR, LESS URAL-VOLGA AREA
Cumulative Gross Additions to
Crude Oil Reserves, and Cumulative Production, 1900-70
Ratio of proved reserves
\to annual production
ATE
T
S
T
ES
IM
FO
RECAS
S
c
~? e
,g,o
O
i u
O
C
~ N
?3
\ q A ~
.eoa
/
/
~~
m aN
/
;,
O
a
B g ~
3 a
i
c
~
i
Cumula
tive gross
~i~
additions
to reserves
C
l
i
d
umu
ve
at
pro
uction
SECRET
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US, LESS PAW DISTRICT 3
Cumulative Gross Additions to
Crude Oil Reserves, and Cumulative Production, 1900-53
Ratio of proved reserves
moo, annual production
Cumulative gross
additions to reserves
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S-E-C-R-E-T '
Further study of the data in the geologic, report on the Ural-
Volga area will define more accurately the relative productivity of
the Ural-Volga deposits. 'It is known, however, that the productivity
is much closer to that of US PAW District 3 than it is to that of the
Middle East. As shown in Figure 8,*' the actual rate of development
in the Ural-Volga for 1943-54 is somewhat greater than that in US
PAW District 3 during the corresponding period of its development --
that is, from 1913 to 1924. This higher rate may be attributed, at
least in part, to the discovery in 1944 of prolific Devonian deposits
in the Ural-Volga area. As indicated in Figure 8, the forecasts for
the Ural-Volga area assume that by 1972 the relative development
(cumulative gross additions to reserves as percent of potential
resources) will equal that of US PAW District 3 in 1942.
Transportation in the Ural-Volga area is a dominant retarding
factor and will so continue. Studies based on the data in the geologic
report on the Ural-Volga area will provide the basis for estimating
the annual inputs needed for transportation facilities for consistency
with the petroleum production forecasts. Therefore, the factor of
accessibility of markets with respect to Ural-Volga oil can be resolved
in quantitative terms.
The factor of competitive versus noncompetitive conditions, in
determining the rate of development of petroleum resources, has been
the sub,7ect of worldwide study liy one major oil company. An official
of that company has submitted a chart showing the results of these
studies. The data shown on that chart are reproduced in Figure 8.
It will be noted that the estimated development rate in the Ural-Volga
area since 1943 parallels roughly the average competitive trend and
that forecasts to 1972 follow this trend. Conversely, the USSR less
the Ural-Volga area parallels approximately the average noncompetitive
trend, and the tentative forecasts to 1972 follow this latter trend.
This whole subject of competitive versus noncompetitive conditions, as
applied to Communist economic systems, requires further study.
F. Strategic Significance of Forecasts.
Petroleum resource studies, such as that on the Ural-Volga
area, together with evaluations and forecasts, developed therefrom,
have the following strategic significance: '
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Combined with input studies based on theme regional petro-
leum resource studies will provide specific data on economic capabil-
ities to finds develops transports and process petroleum.
2. Vulnerabilities.
Regional petroleum resource studies indicate the present
and probable future locations and trends of petroleum development.
Such information is of value in indicating probable vulnerabilities
in such regions.
3. Intentions.
The significance of regional resource studies with regard
to intentions is oi' considerable value if all important potential
petroleum-producdng regions are covered. Such studies should indicate
clearly the availability of internal petroleum resources for the long
term in comparison with the availability of external petroleum re-
sources -- for examples the availability to the USSR of oil from the
Middle East. Snch studies will also provide a basis for estimating
long-term intentions with respect to economic penetration of Free World
petroleum markets.
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MIDDLE EAST
Cumulative Gross Additions to
Crude Oil Reserves, and Cumulative Production, 1911-53
Ratio of proved reserves
to annual production
v
U
J
O
y 40
C
NON-COMPETITIVE
O
G
5
A
pr
Cumulative
gross
a
additions to
reserves
c
ti
~z
l9C
W -
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US, USSR, AND MIDDLE EAST
Comparative Petroleum Resource Development Rates, 1900-80
TIME SCALE: US, AND MIDDLE EAST
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970
TIME SCALE: USSR
t No actual time scale; re/cued to year of discovery.
~Estimotes e~ lorecosts of cumulative gross additions to reserves
os percent o/ potential crude oil resources.
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STATISTICAL DATA ON PETROLEUM PRODUCTION AND RESERVES
SHOWING RELATIONSHIP OF US PAW DISTRICT 3
TO POTENTIAL PETROLEUM RESOURCES IN THE URAL-VOLGA AREA
USSR,AND ON OTHER REGIONS FOR ANALOGY AND COMPARISON
Table 3*~ provides the basic data to support the graphic data shown
in Figure `2. It also provides certain percentage distribution figures
cited in the text.
Tables 4 and 5*-~ provide the data to support .graphic data shown
in Figures 3 and 4. These tables also provide quantitative estimates
and forecasts needed .for proposed input studies.
Table 6~*' provides the data to support the graphic data shown in
Figures 5, 6, and 7.
Table 7~-~ provides data on crude oil production by groups in the
Ural-Volga area. These data have not been previously published. They
are the basis for certain percentage distribution figures cited in the
text.
Tables 4, 5, and 6 also provide the data to support certain graphic
data shown in Figure 8.
All quantities tabulated in this appendiic are in million tons
expressed to the nearest one-tenth million. This degree of signifi-
cance is warranted with respect to Soviet data on production of crude
oil, particularly for prewar years. It is not warranted on reserve data
for crude oil. A significant value of the order of 10 million to 100
million tons reflects the relative accuracy of reserve data. The con-
tinuous balance between production and reserves shown in Tables 4 and 5,
however, requires that reserve data be carried to the nearest one-tenth
million tons in order to provide a statistical check on the data. For
*
Table 3 follows on p. 17, below.
~'
Tables
Table
4 and 5 follow on pp. 22 and 24, respectively, below.
6 follows on p. 27~ below.
*~-~-~
Table
7 follows on p. 30, below.
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example, in checking Table 4, the cumulative production, column (5),
for any year equals the cumulative production of the previous year
plus the annual production, column (3), of the given year. Likewise,
for cumulative gross additions to reserves, column (6), any given
year equals the previous year plus current gross additions to reserves,-
column (2). Net change in reserves during, year, column (4), equals
current gross additions-to reserves, column (2), minus current pro-
duction, column (g), Then the proved reserves at the first of~any
given year, column (1), equals the proved reserves at the first of the
previous year plus or minus the net change in reserves, column (4),
during the previous year. Finally, and for checking purposes, the
proved reserves at the first of any given year, column (1), plus the
cumulative production at the end of the previous year, column (5),
equal the cumulative gross additions to reserves .at the end of the
previous year, column (6).
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 Estimates of Annual Crude Oil Production in the USSR, 1900-54, and Forecasts, 1955-7~,
with the Ural-Volga Area Shown Separately ~*.
C _F.1! _R -F. _T
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 S-E-C_-R-E-T
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Table 3
Estimates of Annual Crude 011 Production in the USSR, 1900-5~+, and Forecasts, 1955-72,
with the Ural-Volga Area Shown Separately
(Continued)
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 Table 3
Estimates of Annual Crude Oil Production in the USSR, 1900-54, and Forecasts, 1955-72,
with the Ural-Volga Area Shown Separately a~
(Continued)
-
USSR Less Ural-Volga
Ural-Volga Only
Percent
Percent
Total
of Total
of Total
USSR
Year
Remarks
Quantity
USSR
Quantity
USSR
Quantity
1934
24.1
99.6
0.l
0.4
24.2
1935
24.7
-98.4
0.4_
1.6
25.1
1936
27.0
96.8
0.9
3.2
27.9
1937
-
27.6
96.8
0.9
3.2
28.5
1938
2g.o
96.0
l.2
4.0
30.2
1939-
28,6
94.1
1.8
5.9
30.4
1940
World war II
28.2
92.0 J
2.4
8.0 ,
30.7 J
1941
29.5
92.5
2:4
7.5
31.9
1942
19.6
88.7
2.5
11.3
22.1
1943
14.1
84.4
2.6
15.6
16.7
1944
15.1
84.8
2.7
15.2
17.8
1945
16.7.
86.1 -
2.7
13.9
19.4
1846
Rehabilitation
l$.0
82.9
3.7
17.1
21.7
1947
and restoration of
2p,$
80.0
5.2
20.0
26.0
1948
prewar production
22,7
77,2
f.7
22.8
29.4
1949
2y.2
75.0
8.4
25.0
33.6
1950
27.3.
72.6
10.3
27.4
37.6
1951
28.2
67.8
13.4
32.2
41.6
1952
29.1
63.8
16.5
36.2
45.6 J
- 19 -
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Estimates of Annual Crude Oil Production in the USSR, 1900-54, and Forecasts, 1955-72;:~
with the Ural-Volga Area Shown Separately
(Continued)
 Tattle 3
'Estimates of Annual Crude Oil Production in the USSR, 1900-54, and Forecasts, 1955-72,
with the Ural-Volga Area Shown Separately
(Continued)
Million Metric Tons
USSR Less Ural-Volga
Ural-Volga Only
Percent
Percent
Total
of Total ~
of Total
USSR
Year
Remarks
Quantity
USSR
Quantity
USSR
Quantity
1970
~
46.3
'38.9
72.7
~
61.1
119.0
1971
47.0
38.2
76.1
61.8
123.1
1972
47.6
37.6
79.1
62.4
126.7
a. Based on production data on Ural-Volga only from Table 2 and production data on USSR less
Ural-Volga from Table 3.
b. Less than 0.05 million metric tons.
c. Total and percentages are derived from unrounded figures and do not agree with rounded
data shown.
d. Total liquid hydrocarbons -- crude oil plus natural gas liquids -- are as follows: 1951,
42.8; 1952, 47.7;1953, 52.7; and 1954, 57.6. 15/
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 c _c+_~ _a _~ _m
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z.o
2.0.
z.o
z.o
z.o ,
z6.o
31.5
0
8.5
3z.o
z7.6
-2.4
-2.4
_z.g
-2.6
4z.3
4z.3
4i.3
398
59.7
61.4
90.0
78.3
54.7
49.6
37.9
46.0
45.4
44.7
43.6
42.1
40.2
40.5
Table 4
Crude 011 Preduc Lion and Reserves in the ural-Volga Area. IfSSR
Annual Eetfmates, 1929-54, and Amuel Forecasts. 1955-72
~ir066 Add1 L10nb
to Reserves Produc Lion
during Year ~ during Year dJ
(Mtlllov (Million
Netric Tons) Metric Tons)
2.o
J
z.o
J
2.o
J
z.o
J
2.0 -
J
z6.1
0.1
31.9
0.4
0.9
0.9
9.4
0.9
33.z
1.2
z9A, _
l.8
0
2.4
0
2.4
0
z.5
o
z.6
45.0
2.7
45.0
2.7
-45.0
3.7
45.0
5.2
66.4
- - 6.7
6q.8
8.4
100.3
10.3
91.7
13:4
71.2
16.5
68.8
19.2
60.o
zz.l
70.8
z4.8
73.6
28.2
76.4
31.7
792
35.6
8z.o
39.9
84.8
44.6
87.6
. 47.1
 Crude 011 Production ani Reserves 1n the Ural-Volga Area, USSR
Anvusl Estimates 1929-54, a~ Annual Forecasta~ 1955-72
(Continued)
Gross Addltlorm Met Change
to Reserves Production ~ in Reserves
duri~ Year ~ during Tear d, during Year
(Million (Million (Million
Metric Tons) Metric Tons) Metric lbns)
90.4
495
40,9
93.2
52.3
40.9
96.0
55.1
4o.g
98.8
577
41.1
101.6
60.7
40.9
104.4
63.7
40.7
107.2
66.5
40.7
uo.o
69.8
4o.z
112.8
72.7
40.1
1155
76.1
39.4
ue.o
791
38.9
..Compiled Prom source ~.
b. 16ta Sn this column for 1929-54 compiled from coluwie (2) and (3)~ 16te for 1955-72 computed directly from data In columns (5a) and (6s).
Estimated gross additions to reserves for 1929-50 derived from source 17 and for 1951-54 estimated by extrapolatlan. Igta for 1955-72 computed directly from~tlata In columns (5a)
and (6a). .n~
d. Estimated annual production for 1929-53 Prom source 18 Estimated annual production for 1954 extrapolated on Des ie of c]sLaed increases cited Sn source y modified by probable
depletion throughout the Ural-Volga region_ -
e. The potential to vh3ch the peroentagee iv columns (Sa) and (6a) are referred Ie 6743.7 million tova. This potential'vas derived Pram source 20/ under the guldavee of CIA covaultavts.
Data iv columns for period 1955-72 Deeed on ar~alogy vitD slmSlar data for US PAW District 3 dur ie~g comparable development period 1924-41, ea eDOVn Iv Table 6, p. 27, belw.
f. _ Lesa Lhar~ 0.05.milllav Love. . .
g. Less thaw 0.005 percent.
h. Value of ratio le not relevant for 1929-33~
S_-E-C_=R-E-T
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 Table 5
Crude 011 Productlov end Reaervea Sn the USSR iess Ural-Volga Area
Annual Estimates, 1900-54, aml Amuel Forecasts, 1955-72
(Continued)
S lgrlflcmt Events
and Pev DlecoveriGs
Year Dy 011 Reglone J
1931
1932
1933
Rev discoveries
Sn Central Ae1a, Bekv,
and Dagheatm
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
Postwar reheD111tetim
and reatoratlov oY
prewar praduc Lion
Casplm Sea
otf-shore discoveries
ana
development
Gross Additions
Net Chavge
Cumulative Production
(End oY Yeer)
Proved Reserves ~
Firat oT Year
to Reserves
during Year
Produc Llon
during Yem
Sn Reeervea
during Year
fluantlty
Percent
(Million
(Million
(Million
(M1113on
(Million
of
Metric Tom)
MetrSC Toys)
Metric Tone))
- Metric Tovs)
Metric Tone)
Potential ?
388.8 ~
99.0
zz.L ~
76.6
3799
2.73
464.4
98.6
u.4 .
77.2
401.3
2.89
542'.6 ~
0
21.5
-21.5
422.8
3.04
5u.1
0
24.1
-24.1
446.9
3~z2
k97.o
0
24.7
-24.7
471.6 ~
3.39 '
472.3
18.4
27.0
~.6
498.6
359
464.7
26.1
27.6
a.5
526.2
3.79
462.2
22.7 '.
29.0
-6.3
555.2
~
399
4559
3o.z
28.6
1.6
583.8
4.zo
457.5
43.6
28.2
15.4
612.0
4.40
472.9
13.6
29.5
-159
641.5
4.61
457.0
13.5
19.6
-6.1
661.1
4.76
450.9
13.4
14.1
-0.7
675.2
4.86
450.2
o
15.1
-151
690.3
4.97
435.1
16.7
16.7
0
707:0
S~o9
435.1
18.0
18.0
0
7z5~o
5.zz
435.1
zo.e
20.8
0
745.8
5.37
435.1
22.7 -
22.7
0
768.5
5.53" .
435.1
ze.9
25.2
~ 3~7
793.7
S~71
438.8
35.1
27.3
7.8 ~
eu.o
'5.91
446.6
~ 41.3
28.2
13.1
849.2
6.11
4597
475
z9~1
18.4
878.3
6.32
478.1
536
30.4
23.2
908.7
6.54
501.3
59.8
31.5
28.3
940.2 ~
6.76
529.6
58.6
32.8
25.8
9730
700
555.4
58.7
33.4
25.3
1,006.4
7.24
580,7
58.6
34.2
- 24.4
l,040.6
7.49
6051
58.7
35.1
z3~6
1,0757
774
628.7
58.6
359
22.7
1,111.6
e.oo
651.4
58.6
36.6
zz.o
1,148.2
8.26
673.4
58.7
37.8
20.9
1,186.0
8.53
694.3
58.6
39.0 -
19.6
1,225.0
8.e1
713.9
58.7
40.1
18.6
1,265.1
9.10
732.5
58.6
41.2
17.4
1,306.3
9.40
_ ps
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 S=E-C-R-E-T
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Table 5 -
~~
Crude 011 Production and Reserves Sn tDe UHSR less Ural-Volga Aran
Annual Estimates, 1900-54, and Annual Forecasts, 1955-72
-
(Continued)
-
'
Cross Addl tiona
Net Cheoge
Cumulative Production
(End of Tear)
Cumulative Grose Additions
to Reserves (EM of Year)
Ratio
Proved Reserves
to Reserves
Production
in Reserves
of Proved
-
Year
SignifSCent Etients
sad New Discover ee
Dy 011 Regions ~
First of Year
(Million
Metric 1br~s)
duri~ Year
(MS111on
Metric 1bre)
durl~ Year
(MS111bn
Metric lbna)
dur1~ Year
(Million
Metric Tbne)
Quantity
(Million
Metric Toys)
Percwt
of .~
Potential J
Quantity
(Million
Netrlc lbne)
Percent
of w/'
Potential J
Reserves
to Annual
Production
1565
7499
58.6
42.1
16.5
1,348.4
9.70
z,u4.8
l5?u
17.8
1966
-
766.4
58.7
43.1
15.6
1,391.5
10.01
2,173.5
15.64
17.8
1967
782.0
58.6
43:9
14.7
1,435.4
10.33
2,232.1
16.06
17.8
1968
796.7
58.6
44:8
138
1,480.2
10.65
2,290.7
16.48
17:8
1969
810.5
58.7
45 ~5
13:2
1,5257
10.98
2,349.4
16.90
17.8
1970
_
8237
58:6
46.3
12.3
1,572.0
ll.31
2,408.0 -
17~32~
178
19A ~
836.0
58.7
47:0
11.7
1,619~o
u.65
2,466.7
17.75
17.8
1972
~847~7
SB.6
47.6
11.0
1,666.6
u.g9
2,525.3
18.17
17.8
a. Estimated annual production for 1900-53 derived from source 21 , less values show In Table for Lhe period 1929-53~ Estimated gross additions to reserves derived from source
(modified by values Sn Table 4) for aelec tad years, with Snterported and Bxtrapmleted values of ratios of proved reserves to annual production for remaining yews, used for the ~perlod
1900-54. Remaining data for the period 1900-54 are calculated dSrectly from annual production and annual gross additions to reserves. -
D. "The potential to which the percentages cumulative prcduc Liav and percentages gross sddltlons Lo reserves are referred Ss 13,900:4 million tons. This is the difference between esti-
mate for UEFA published in 1948 23~~ and that derived for the Ural-Volga area. Th1e potential Se'the only one available. IL should De SMependently determined on a regloml basis Dy
adds tional eddies e1m11er to the study mn the Ural-Volga area. 24 .
c. ~NO besle'for a ratio Snvolving aMUffi produc tlon. ~ ~~
d: ~Forecae to Por 1954'LO 1972 Dosed on 25 ea timate of geologic potential end econamlc capaD llitles for 1952-1972_period supplemented Dy the assumption of m lncreeae 1n the ratio of
proved roe ernes W umual production Prom 15.9 Sn 1954 to 17.8 Sn 1960 and extrapolation of this latter ratio to 1972. Sus tlflcetlon Por this assumption Ss by malogy witD UB
experience. Hoxever, this as s,mpticv and Lhe entire forecast show should De checked by additional regional studies on the USSR elmllar~to that completed on Sde Orel-Volga azea: ~~
 0
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Year
'
CunnilatSvo
Produetlon
m Rxeat
of Potential
1~
1901
1902
~ .. .
1903
0.1
191W
o.l
1905
0.l
1906
0.1
1907
0.1
1908
0.1
1909
0.2
1910
0.2
S9u
o.2
1912
0.3
1913
0.3
1914
0.4
1915
0.5
1916
0.6
1917
0.7
1918
0.8
1919
0.9
1920
1.1
1921
1.3
1922
1923
1.5
1.8
1924
1925
.2.1
2.5
1926
2.9
1927
3~3
1928
3~9
1929
4.6
1930
5.1
1931
5.7
1932
6.3
Cucvletlve
Grose Addltiom
W Reserves
m PexmC
of Potential
d
o.z
c.3
0.4
0.6
0.7
0.9
3.0
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.9
z.o
2.3
2.7
3.1
3.5
b.l
4.7
5.4
6.1
6.9
e:e
9.8
10.9
12.1
13.3
ib.6
16.0
17.4
18.9
in 1MO 6elec ted Reglom of the IS sad So the Middle Amt
1900-s3
16
Lees PAN Die tract 3 J
~
Middle Peet J
Redo
of
Paved Reserves
to Amual
Produe Lion
Cunuletive
Produc tleo
m Flxmt
of Potcotial
Cuvlatlve
Groea Addltiom
to Reserves
m Pexmt
of Potential
Petio
of Cuauletlve
Proved Reneram Produe Lion
W Amual m Pexmt
Productlm of Ibtentiel
Cu~ilntSve Redo
Crme Adds tlom of
to Acacrvea Proved Reeerne
m Pexent Co Avnu>1
of Potential Yrodue Lion
J
2.0
7.5
34.1
r/
z.2
7.8
31.2
2.4
8.2
30.8
~
2.6
8.6
29.2
.
J
z.8
9.1
29.0
3.1
9.6
27.8
47.1
3.3
lo.l
27.9
44.2
3.6
10.7
26.0
(RO petroleva
41.5
3.9
11,4
25.3
produc Lion Sn
38.9
4.2
12.1
24.7
Middle Fmt
36.5
4.6
12.8
24.b
Detare 1911)
34.3
S.o
13.6
22.7 aJ
J J
32.2
5.3
16.4
22;4
0.1
;o.z
s?8
ls.z
u.8 ~
0.3~ J
28.6
6.2
16.0
zo.0 a
o.5
26.6
6.7
16.7
19.b ~
0.9 J
z5.o
7.2
17.b
18.6
0.9 352
23.5
T?8
18.2
17.2
0.9 227
2z.o
B.4
1B.9
16.0 ~
0.9 154
u.7
9.0
19.6
15.2 aJ
o.9 132
21.h
9.7
20.3
14.0 d,
0.9 llb
21.2
10.5
21.0
13.0 dJ
1.0 S0
20.9
u.b
~ u.7
lz.o . 0.1
1.1 .. B4
20.6
12.3
22.5
11.2 0.1
1.1 72
20.3
13.3
23.2
10.2 O.1
1.1 SB
~
20.1
14.4
zb.l
9?i o1
49
1.1
19.B
15.6
24.9
9.0 0.l
1.1 66
19.5
16.8
25.9
8.1 0.2
1.3 bi
19.3
18.0
26.B -
7.b o.2
1.3 ~ 00
19.0
18.8
27.9
10.3 o.z
1.5 bo
1 .B
19.9
29.0
10.0 0.2 -
1.5 41
18.5
20.9
30.2
9.6 0.3
1.6 41
18.3
22.1
31.5
9.4 0.3
1.8 42
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s. The signlficsnt data shorn were derived from bas le data on crude o11 production and reserves published Sn the follOVing sources:
Crude all production, 1900-30 from 27 1931-53 from ~.
Crude-oil reserves, 1900-36 from 29 modified Dy prorating PAN Mstrlct data agalnet API (American Petroleum Institute) Ug data from source 30 for consistency with data after
1936 which aze API rather than PAN; 1937-46 from 31 1947-53 from 32 .- " - -" - --' ~ ~ -
The initial computations from the original data were smoothed by elmple analytic end graphic methods Sn order to use them for forecee tip by analdgy In Table 4.
TTe potential crude oil resources of PAN Dlatrlct 3 used for the calculations are 8,368.6 mlllicn toys. This vas derived from Meeks estimate In 33/ for the US end reserve data
Sn 34/ Lo obtain the remaining potential resources Sn the US as of 31 December 1953, emonnting to 4,5057 million tons.- These revaiving resources were prorated to PAN Districts on -
the beats oP gross additions to reserves for the period 1937-54. This proration gave 2,794 million tons, or 62 percent Of remaining potential crude o11 resources In the VS es of
31 December 1953, Sn PAN Dls trlcL 3~ Adding these remaining-potential resources in Mstrlct 3 to the cumulative groas additions to reserves in this District ea of 31 December 1953, -
amounting to 5.574.6 million tons, gives the total potential crude o11 resources of Dls tract 3 of 8,368.6 million tom.
b. Data for the ll5 less Mstrict 3 are derived from the same sources and by the same stairs Licel methods es those described uvder e, above, for the US total end for the US less District
j Dy difference.
S -E-C -R-E-T
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S-E-C-R-E-T
glgniflcant Aelationshlps Detwen Crude 011 Prodvc Lion, Reserves, and Potential Resources
Sn TVO Selected Regions of the Ug and Sn Lhe Middle East
1900-53
, (Continued)
c. dTe significant date show were derived from Dasic data on crude o11 production and reserves In Lhe Middle Fast given in the following sources:
Crude oil production 19u-52 from source 35 and 1953 from 36 .
Crude o11 reserve data for Lhe end of 1953 from source 37 and reserve data for previous years are from previous aruiusl Interr~atlonal Operations issues of this eeac publication,
Gorld 011 insofar ae the data ere available. Reserve data for remalnSng years were Interpolated or extrapolated on the basis oP historical records of petroleum discovery and develoPmeht
In the Middle Fast gives In 38
The date show are the Initial computations from the original data In the sources cited. 'Prey are not evoothed es were the US data, because these Middle East data ere not used Sn
this study Sor 4orecas Ling Dy armlogy, but are included simply for comparative purposes.
The potentlsl crude o11 resources of the Middle East used for the calculations are 20,909.2 mi111on tone, es puDliehed by Neeks in 1948. 39~
d. Lees tDan 0.05 Percent. '
~e. Velue of ratio Ss not relevant for Skt1a1 period. 1
-29-
c_~_r_R_F_m
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Estimated Annual Crude Oil Production in the Ural-Volga Area, USSR
by Groups a/*
1929-54
Yeae
Molotovneft'
Bashneft'
Kuybyshevneft'
Buguruslanneft'
Other
Tatneft' Saratovneft' Stalingrad Areas
Total
Ural-
Volga
1929
>~
1930
b/
b
1931
1932
b/
J
b/
1933
,
~
J
1934
b/
0.1
0.1
1935
J
0.4
0.4
1936.
~
0.9
_
0.9
1937
-
J
o.9
b/
0.9
-
1938
J .
1.1
0.1
~
1.2
1939
.
0.1
1.6
0.l
~
~
1.8
1940
0.l
2.0
0.2
0.1
2.4
1941
0.1
2.0
0.2
0.1
2.4
1942
0.1
2.0
0.3
0.1
2.5
1943
0.l
2.0
0:4
o.r -
_
2.6
1944
0.l
i.9
0.6
0.l
2.7
1945
0.l
1.9
0.6
0.1 ~
2.7
1946
0.2
2.6
0.8
0.l
~
3.7
1947
0.3
3.5
1.2
0.2
, ~
5.2
 Estimated Annual Crude 011 Production in the Ural-Volga Areas USSR
by Groups a~
1929-54
(Continued)
Year Molotovneft'
Bashneft'
Kuyb~shevneft'
Buguruslanneft'
Tatneft'
Saratovneft'
Stalingrad
Other
Areas
Total
Ural-
Volga
1948
0.3
4.4
1.7
0.2
o.i
p/
6.7
1949 -'
0.4
5.6
2.0
0.2
0.2
,
8.4
1950
0.5
6.3
2.9
0.3
0.2
0.l
10.3
1951
0.5
8.8
3.4
0.3
0.3
0.l
13.4
1952
0.6
11.2
3.9
0.4
0.3
0.1
16.5
1953
0.7
12.6
4.8
0.5
0.4
0.2
19.2
1954
0.7
15.0
5.2
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.l
>~
22.1
Total
to
1 Jan
1955
4.9
86.8
28.4
3_3
1_9
0.7
0.l
~
126.1
a. Data for total Ural-Volga from Table 3. Distribution to groups prorated from data in source ~ for period
1929-52 except for years 1941-44 which are interpolated. Tie data by groups for.1950-52 are ad,7usted slightly to
conform to recent i~'ormation on Bashneft'. 41 Data for Bashneft' for 1953-54 from 42 and remaining groups
prorated on basis of 1952 production.
b. Less than 0.05 million tons.
e.c n v t+ m
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S-E-C-R-E-T
APPENDIX B
METHODOLOGY
Two general types of data are presented in this report: (1) esti-
mates of the potential petroleum resources .of the Ural-Volga area of
the USSR and (2) forecasts of ftrture production based primarily on the
above estimate.
The methods used in developing the estimate of potential petroleum
tion II, D, of this report.
or a more complete exposition 50X1
oft methods and to the geologic report on the Ural-Volga area 44
for a more detailed understanding of the application of these methods
to the region covered.
The methods used for developing the forecasts of production of
crude oil in the Ural-Volga region are explained in Section III of this
report. They are widely used in the petroleum industry for forecasting,
although their detailed application varies somewhat to fit specific
requirements.
-33-
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50X1;
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